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Everybody Welcome to Game Debut, present of by Mercedes Benz, Patrick Claibond. Here with Greg Rosenthal and Cynthia Freeland. Week five, The Lion's Share of It. We're gonna get you set for it because there's a big difference sometimes between like two and two and three and two. The season could turn on some of these games, guys.
I mean this is I feel like now we kind of know a little bit about who these teams are. What are we looking at? Maybe maybe we just know a little bit more right now, after this first month of the season is over.
I don't know much according to the pit.
Yeah, here we'll show you exactly how much we know thus far. We know that Cynthia Freeland is wearing that crown. Meanwhile, I'm at five hundred. Greg is just about it. It's Cynthia's world. We're just we're just living in.
I'm gonna be very honest with you. Until our producer told me, I didn't know, I.
Don't I don't track anything.
Oh yeah, I truly keep track.
Of mind, nothing like fake combo. I don't know it's true.
We're Freeland. She will tell you as she was beaten into me as a child.
See this is Cynthia like bending the rim, hitting us in our chest with her knee as.
The ball bounces off our heads. We'll jump right into it.
The Texans making a big splash off season last offseason acquiring Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs from the Bills. Spent four seasons in Buffalo, catching over one hundred balls for one thousand plus yards in every season the Bills traded Digs. Folks on the outside, we're speculating about bad vibes. Maybe one day somebody will provide specifics so what actually happened?
But for now he gets this chance at revenge.
The Bills and Texans squaring off in Houston, both teams three and one. Do the Bills bounce back Cynthia after they got throttled on the road Sunday night?
Unfortunately, I just that injury report is too full of names for me, So I have Houston winning this game by two points, twenty five to twenty three. In this matchup, I want to give a little bit of love to see j Stroud when he's not facing the blitz. I mean, he has the most yards in the NFL on such passes, and they usually come off an inbreaker from Nico Collins. All of these things line up to deficiencies to the Bills. Are things or tendencies of the Bills that they don't do.
They blitz at the lowest rate in the league, and some of the people who are potentially not playing, that's where those inbreaking routes would be caught. So it just lines up that the pluses for CJ. Stroud and this passing offense line up with the potential minuses for the Bills in this matchup.
I agree. I'm gonna go ahead and give them one more point.
I got twenty six twenty three looking at this game, really because the Buffalo Bills are going up against this Texans team that has a good defense. What about the Texans and the defenses that they faced? If you're concerned about CJ. Stroud this season, the Bills, I mean, excuse me, the Bears, the Vikings as well. I don't know if defensive wise, talent wise, Buffalo presents as many problems for
Houston as some of these other teams on their schedule. Meanwhile, the Bills lose Von Miller for a group of games, I started to get concerned about this Bills defense, as is Cynthia, considering the volume of injuries they're dealing with. I've got the Texans.
Here, Greg, Oh love this. We are starting off the show feeling right. We're starting off with a big Bills victory twenty seventh to twenty one. That means we're starting off with a just Greg two and zero on just Greg last week.
The Bills are gonna get it done.
Look, there were my Super Bowl team this year because of Josh Allen, because of the pass protection that matches up well against this Houston pass rush. This is the best offensive line in the league. They are leading the league in pass block win rate. Yes, I know they're left tackle Dion Dawkins a little banged up.
The rest of the line is great.
We'll see if he suits up either way. I trust Josh Allen back there. I'm on this team. I had them losing last week to the Ravens, so I got the vibe of what they do. And sometimes you got to just look at the teams. When I watch these two teams, I think the Bills are a better offense. Overall, They're both good defenses. Here, the Texans good pass rushers aren't getting home. They're not gonna get Josh Allen on the I see a.
Lot of Dion Dawkins and those clips that we picked for your okayro.
Might be on the field. It's good coaching the offensive line. They get it done, all right.
We'll keep a track on Greg's vibe. Match with the Buffalo Bills. We got two of the best quarterbacks in the League of fun, and let's do some math on this fun game. Will Stefan Diggs have over fifty five receiving yards on a path to revenge? I don't know if fifty five is revenge, but he's gonna give fifty fives.
Yeah, I mean, if fifty five is number for revenge, I sign up for that. I think he's going to have more yards than that. In a lot of ways, this comes down to the fact of where the routes he's been running are and where are some of the holes Again in the Bill's secondary happens to be some of those Bills defensive numbers. Patrick, you brought it up. They were against like something horrible happening with Miami something
not like they're just kind of a little misleading. It's not to say that they aren't a good defense, but they are more generous to the past than what we've seen.
All Right, we'll move on to the team that ended the Bills perfect season last week, the Baltimore Ravens.
Dereck Henry playing a big.
Role in that thirty five to ten beat down of Buffalo, the King going for one hundred and ninety nine yards, including a franchise record eighty seven yard touchdown run. A big win for Baltimore last week, got new picking against the workout. They've won two straight games. They've now got Burrow in the Bengals. Who do you see winning here, Cynthia.
I have Baltimore and it's because of that guy. Why what are the trends we're seeing for Derrick Henry this year? Well, this is the most generous teams have been with him on yards before contact meeting, He's able to get a full head of steam. He's almost running ten point three miles per hour by the time he even crosses the lineups troops. What number two? They're also giving him a light box at the highest rate of his career. What
are people doing? But here's the thing, ultimately in this one the Bengals defense is most efficient they're banged up. Is Sheldon Rankan's gonna play? I don't know. They don't have anyone that really stops the run, especially in the middle of the field. So this one is just a big mismatch in front of in favor of the run game kind of both by the quarterback and by of course Derrick Henry.
Yeah, I have the Ravens winning this game by quite a bit, thirteen seven to twenty four, and I think that's disrespectful. Look when the when the Bengals offense is on the field, gonna be a nice matchup. When the Ravens offense on the field, it's no match at all. This Bengals defense is not playing well. They're disrespecting lou Anarrumo's name like they're gonna make me forget how good.
They used to be.
They're missing tackles all over the place. You can't set the edge against Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. You think you're gonna do it against Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry. This is the worst matchup possible. This Bengals offense too, like they haven't played a defense as good as the Ravens. So I think they could struggle a little bit. But again, you're watching the highlights of Cam Taylor Britt getting beat over and over.
He's gotten bench.
The Ravens offense is pretty efficient in the passing game so far this season.
Two.
I think it's a total mismatch. It's not gonna be close. You know what we didn't see on that Act of Mike segment. You didn't see any Bengals players going you're great, You're great, because there's been no greatness for the Bengals.
It was the Ravens.
Yeah, it's a tough situation for the Bengals this season. Thirteen points feels like a lot from Greg the games in Cincinnati.
I'm gonna say it's a two point Baltimore.
Ravens when but I think we can't feel good about this Ravens defense, especially the pass rushers because, especially as of late that game against the Bills and Josh Allen, one of only three teams in the entire NFL right now that has four players with ten or more pressures. That means they're versatile. They hit you from plenty of different places, and they can do so quickly. Look at Adafe Oh wait getting to Josh Allen there on that
particular play. The Ravens are a team that I think can win, and you guys are granted with a mimulert a meme alert.
Many mean, what are words?
From London at nine to thirty am Eastern, exclusively on NFL Network, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets taking them on Justin Jefferson and the undefeated Vikings at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in London. Rise, shine and watch Jets versus Vikings NFL Network streaming on NFL Plus.
Subscription is required for NFL Plus.
Let's jump right in to this big matchup at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium. The Vikings looking to remain undefeated, and I believe that they will winning by the really fun score of twenty one to fifteen. It feels a little conservative because I look at these Sam Donald pockets that he is slinging from.
And they look great.
The rates stats on terms of pressure show one thing, but look at all the big plays the Minnesota Vikings have made this season, Like, what do you notice?
It's just Surm, It's just.
Sam back there picking his spots.
Josh Oliver touchdowns one a performance from Jordan Addison. Last week, the Jets defense had the team on its back against the Broncos, and I'll paraface Justin Jefferson's my favorite. Justin Jefferson quoted this season, with all due respect to the Denver Broncos, this ain't the Denver Broncos.
Ew I got the Minnesota Vikings here.
I got the Minnesota Vikings as well in this game. And yeah, I think Garrett Wilson, maybe he'll get going. But you know who's really gonna make Sam Donald look good? Aaron Jones. A lot of those yards Sam Donald is getting is off these screen passes. Last year, the Vikings were one of the least effective screen teams in the entire NFL. Now they're the third best team in terms of yards per catch on screens. And you know why that is because they got one of the best screen
running backs in NFL history. Last year, the Packers were one of the best screen teams because Aaron Jones was getting it done. Look, it's getting blocked up really well. It's called at the right times. I think Kevin O'Connell has a really good feel of when to call these screens, and Aaron Jones is one of the best running backs in the league at doing everything. It's running, it's the
receiving game, it's blocking. He's tough, and I think this Jets run defense and the screen defense is going to just get washed out.
Oh meme it up, because I too have the Vikings winning this game, but by two points, a little bit close to here, twenty two to twenty. I want to point out something that I feel like maybe you've got a little confusing this week, and that's the fact that you've never seen Brian Flores actually go up against an Aaron Rodgers quarterbacks team as the defensive coordinator or head coach. Right, neither thing You've alays seen him as a lot coach.
That is the last time. So when you're looking at the run game and how to stop it, we saw the prescription last week from the Sean Payton from everything that's going on with those Denver Broncos. They're the number one blitzing team. This is the number two blitzing team. Shutting down Breese Hall feels like it's the right thing to do to shut down everything else that they want to do. That was the key last week. I think that will be a key again this week.
And if things go wrong for the Jets, then we start looking at the team a whole lot differently.
Considering last week's loss.
The Saints have the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, Casey just one of two remaining undefeated teams. They just put Rashid Rice on ir Can they win without Rice?
Cynthia, Yeah, they can win it without Rice. Twenty five to twenty one is my final score in this matchup. I just want to talk about the tight ends in general, not just that one who did have a much better game, more fantasy points if that's what you're into. No Grey week, but look, no Gray, he's there too, Okay, right, you're going to have to figure out all the different ways to survive without or she Rice. He was your number
one by far. So now you've got to look at where are the vulnerable points in the Saints defense, and it happens to be to the tight end position. They're giving up lots of yards to that specific position where those routes are run. So not only will it be Travis Kelcey, but you've also got Noah Gray or whomever else they're going to run in those slot like tight end like places. So that to me, that is the
Saints defense is good, very good. This is an opportunity for the Chiefs to kind of get back on track and figure out what they're going to look like without Rashi Rice for however long he's gone.
Yeah, I second that, Cynthy. The Saints defense very good. The problem for the Saints. The Chiefs defense is also very good. So I've got Casey winning in a close one, because that's apparently what they do now is win close games. Four games this season they're four and oh every single one of them within a score. The Saints are zero to two in that category. And the very first person that would tell you that would be one Alvin Kamara.
Shout out to Alvin Kamara. That's the entire point of what I want to talk about here for this game. He's number three in the league in Russian. He's got morrisceptions than Jalen Waddle, Jayden Breed and Amari Cooper. Oh and by the way, he's playing right now with broken ribs. What just saying, Shout out to the dude, one of the best during his era in the NFL.
So I like it when we're all aligned, we all have the Saints covering. We clearly all believe in the Saints that they're gonna cover this spread, but one of us believes in them for real. The Saints are gonna win this game. I got the guts. We're just going just greg again. They wanted to do it, they didn't do it, and they're gonna regret it because that Saint's secondary is gonna be all over this Chief's wide receiver group and their tight ends. I don't care that they're
giving up numbers to tight ends. They should be good up the middle. Tyron Matthew hopefully back for this game. I like Alante Taylor in the slot, Paulson Adebo. We got Marshawn Laddimore healthy, and I think to beat the Chiefs, you gotta have a great secondary because Patrick Mahomes just neutralizes the pass rush and they'll probably protect him pretty well.
The Saints past russ isn't amazing, but they can cover, They can stick to these wide receivers, and they can force Patrick Mahomes into some bad decisions a lot of interceptions this year. I think the Saints defense gets it done. They go into arrowhead. I've never made this mistake before, doubting the Chiefs.
Let's go a Saints road win at Arrowhead. It's a fun pick.
Let's check out some player props from this game between the Saints and the Chiefs. Derek Carr sitting at one and a half passing touchdown, Patrick Mahomes at two thirty one and a half, Alvin at over fifty three and a half, Travis Kelce getting five and a half receptions, and say, if you're worthy with she Rice out forty and a half receiving yards. So let's do some math on this one. Cynthia Well Mahomes throw for over two hundred and thirty two and a half yards Monday in Arrowhead.
Yeah, I do think he will. For a couple of reasons. Number One, the Saints happen to be one of the four teams that have scored on their opening drive in every single game this season, and the Chiefs they have not. What we've seen from the Chiefs is a bit of a slower start, which would dictate more passing yards. This is a low number, two hundred and thirty two point but it's not like three hundred and thirty two point five.
It's two hundred and thirty two point five. So if you're looking at that threshold, and figuring things out without Rashiver. I mean, and by the way, that Davier Worthy one forty point that could be one catch.
So what you're saying is the Chiefs are going to be trailing a lot in this game.
I don't think that the game script.
Will be I see what you're saying.
Okay, okay, Passing numbers that league wide as folks are kind of getting adjusted to that.
Moving on to the Dallas Cowboys.
Dak and the Boys got a much needed win last week against the g Men.
Sunday night, we're getting a classic.
It's the Cowboys and the Steelers in Pittsburgh, Dak versus Fields.
I'm gonna kick us off here.
I like the Steelers by two points because I've seen it at all.
Against this Cowboys defense.
It's dealing with injuries at both Edges has to chase justin fields around. He's had rushing touchdowns in the past few weeks. But here's the twenty twenty four fields. The Steelers are a top twelve passing efficiency offense. Arthur Smith's team is trying to get the rushing efficiency it catch up to the passing efficiency, and better team to try to do that against than the twenty twenty four Dallas Cowboys run defense.
Greg, Yeah, I agree with you. I have the Steelers winning this game. I think it's going to be very close. It's twenty two to twenty one. Because everything is so hard for the Cowboys right now. When you watch Dak Prescott, his throws have to be absolutely perfect.
Now I'm going to show you the good.
Dak Prescott's a baller, but all these receivers are catching passes in tight windows. He actually leads the league in percentage of tight windows thrown into. They also are dead last in the league in terms of average separation from their wide receivers. So it feels like Mike McCarthy, he's just sending his wide receivers out there, go get open.
I remember this back in Green Bay. It's close.
I'm threading the needle here where I'm picking the Steelers to win, but the Cowboys to cover. It's a little bit of a I'm not sure what's gonna happen, but I trust the Steelers a little more.
I mean I trust the Steelers probably the most of anyone here because I have the biggest difference between their score. I have twenty four to twenty one in this matchup, I do want to point out on the other side, so poor CD Lamb, he's out here all by himself. No Brandon Cooks in this matchup. Of course, there's Jake Ferguson. If you're a fantasy player, you can use him too. But ultimately, he has a streak of thirty seven games with four or more receptions. That is the third longest
active streak since nineteen seventy. That forecast to absolutely continue to talk about those tight window throws. You know why they're turning into receptions, CD Lamb, Yeah, Dak Prescott, he's got the best passer rating under pressure this year. You know why guys like Ceedee Lamb catching it in really
really tough situations. So just a little love to ceed Lamb in this one because he's gonna get a lot of attention from the Steelers secondary, but he will also get a lot of attention from Dak Prescott and.
We will get a lot of attention for Cowboys fans.
If this does not go right, we would deserve it.
Then, we would deserve it.
Yeah, we want it. Enjoying the games. Everybody stile to the count after dropping two in.
A row, party and the Niners got back on track last week. They've got Kyler in the high flying Cardinals coming to town. A monster NFC West showdown. Who's gonna win? We're gonna try to find out.
On game debut Thomas.
See is the Season presented by Caesars Sports book, brock Perty was miked up. He said, George, as soon as he threw that fall and got it.
That was a fun clip.
These are the first touchdown score odds according to Caesar Sports. But they got Jordan Mason at the top at plus three twenty five, then Debo James Connor, George Kittle, and Brandon Au to round out that list.
Only one Cardinal there in the top five.
Big NFC West showdown between the Cardinals and the forty nine Ers in Santa Clair. Both squads are currently looking up at the Seahawks in the division. Who gets closer to them this week?
The forty nine Ers will. But I think this game is going to be close. I think the Cardinals cover here. I have it twenty eight to twenty three. You got to keep an eye on Fred Warner's status. They are not the same defense in San Francisco. If Warner's out, Kyler Murray could run all over the place. Let's get back to getting Kyler Murray some rushing attempts. He's one of the best scramblers in the league, like you see here, also very effective on the design runs. Last week just
didn't seem comfortable. Washington did a good job containing him. They basically ignored the running game. I think this running game is still going to have a good season between him and James Connor. I think the forty nine ers could be vulnerable. They look great against the Patriots, but it's not a great defensive line since they lost Javon Hargrave. Division matchup, big game for the Cardinals at one in three. Think it's closer than the number.
Wooh, I'm kind of like completely opposite you. I have it being bigger than the number. I have San Francisco winning thirty to twenty in this matchup. I want to talk about brock Party for a second because I found the stat to be really incredible. He leads the league with nine point three air yards per attempt, passing yards per attempt. Excuse me, he has eleven hundred and thirty total yards that second in the league. But do you know how many of them are coming off of yak.
It's the lowest percentage twenty six percent in the National Football League. I was a little impressed with that because remember, we've seen a lot of you know, we didn't know Ard Mason would be starting this time, you know, a month and a half ago, all of these different changes, people being out. But look, it's been really fascinating. I
think it just gets better now as increased health. They've got more Devo, we've got more Brandon Ayuk folding in and not holding out or in or whatever wherever the holdout was or in was. But ultimately, I think that just makes this even bigger because this is a defense that you can pass on, and this is an opportunity for them to kind of really just start the momentum because I think they've probably had not the September they thought they were gonna have.
Yeah, and it's going to slam dunk that party stat because that was the criticism, like, oh all these passing yards are yeah, they're not this year, So now what are we going to say about Brock And now a lot of those other pieces that are so valuable in Santa Clara, they're back, including Deebo Samuel the very last time the forty nine Ers played the Cardinals.
It was Week fifteen.
Last year, Deebo had two touchdowns. He had this fifty three yarder last week. He looks back and good. I think Brandon Ayuk and that explosion and burst is starting to get a little bit better as well.
It feels like these.
Two teams are moving in different directtions right now. We'll see if the Cardinals can get it back together, but as of right now, we are all on San Francisco that was seized the season presented by Caesar's Sportsbook. As we look over to the Caesar Sportsbook gapp download the Caesar Sportsbook gap and official sponsor of the NFL.
New users, place your first bet up to one thousand dollars. If you lose, you'll get it back as a bonus bet.
Use promo code TV one thousand, must be twenty one or older. Cecesars dot com backslash promos for full terms. What about the highest over unders in Week five? According to the dear friends at Caesars Sportsbook, the Cardinals and the Niners are at number one, but right after that the Ravens Bengals, and then there's the Packers at the
Rams two Really good teams. As we get too quick picks here on Game Deviet that game is going to be over across the street at SOFI Stadium, Vegas, expecting this one to be high scoring.
Which team gets back on tracks.
And Grebay gets back on track here, continuing a trend of Matt Lafleur somehow getting the best of Sean McVay. Very interesting stuff here, But Jayden Reid is the really big key to this one, being able to take advantage of the fact that this banged up secondary or this bang up total defense or total team I guess for the Rams has been vulnerable to the deep pass. You saw Kyler Murray have a perfect passer rating against them. Jayden Reid feels that very nicely. And now Jordan Love
is kind of fully back. We saw him really get back in the swing of things second half last week against the Vikings. Jaden Reid big game here.
Yeah, Jayden Reid has gone off in every Jordan Love star again sample sides.
That's too this season. But we're only in week five, folks. Let's go to the Panthers and the Bears.
The Andy Dalton revenge tour against his former team continues.
However, I do think he comes up short here.
I've got Chicago winning this one nineteen to seventeen because the Bears defense has been very, very good and the offense can.
Apparently run the ball.
Now DeAndre Swifts had his best rushing game last week. He really got involved in the passing game as well. I do believe the Bears remain unbeaten in the Caleb Williams era at home, and they gonna win over Andy Dalton in company the Browns and commanders Jane Daniels as Washington in first place in the East right now, I don't think anybody saw that coming. Do they get their four straight winger?
Absolutely, they win this game thirty to twenty because this Brown's defense, it's not special anymore, and you gotta be special if you want to stop Jaden Daniels. Look what Cleveland has done on defense. It's like they're not top ten. They're about average, I would say, adjusting for schedule, and you think about all the different ways Washington's offense can beat you. Now, Jayden is throwing so well to the intermediate area of the field, so it's not all dinks
and dunks from ten to nineteen yards. Jayden Daniels has been the most accurate and effective quarterback in the league.
And he doesn't have to throw a ton.
Each week, but when he does, he's seen a lot of open receivers and he's hitting him right where you need to. I don't think the Browns defense is that group anymore that you look at that's just gonna absolutely shut down a rookie. I think we'll take it back a notch. We maybe don't go over forty this week. We get to thirty, thirty to twenty.
You know whose defense you also need to think about when in terms of passing vulnerability. Yeah, that would be also be Washington. So Amari Cooper had a touchdown called back last week. If you're a fantasy owner, play Amari Cooper, You're fine. It won't get called back this time.
Yeah.
It's one of those things where you see the results and how the touchdown didn't count and there was a drop. But he's getting the opportunities as well. The trouble is, I think Washington's defense got a lot better against the Arizona Cardinals. We got to figure out was that the Cardinals was at Washington.
Either way, we're not finding out this week because they're playing the worst offense in the league in Cleveland.
I said it last week, not picking the Browns. Spoiler alert, I'm not picking the Browns. Time for more or less here on game debut was.
We got player props for the London game.
It's more or less We'll start with Aaron Rodgers more or less greg than one and a half passing touchdowns against the Viking.
Ooh, I'm going last.
Brian Flores is gonna bring the pain to Aaron Rodgers at the hot totty Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. I think if you're going to beat the Vikings offense, you're gonna have to run the ball against him. All the different protections that you have to set up to face this Vikings defense, it's gonna make Aaron Rodgers and especially some of these young offensive linemen's head spin.
So I'm giving him one touchdown.
Maybe they run in for another, but we're going under one and a half touchdowns, all right, let's.
Go more or less Cynthia the two hundred and twenty passing yards for one Sam Donald more.
I think that if you look at the tendencies, this Jets defense plays a lot of man coverage. The seventh highest rate in the league. You know how many touchdowns Sam Donald has thrown against man coverage nine he leads the NFL. Nine, also a ton of yards, mostly to
Justin Jefferson. While I do think that this defense is a very good defense, it would really help if they had an extra pass rusher I don't know, maybe one that's potentially they traded for, but whatever in this game that will help Sam Donald reach this number.
I don't even know if they're a great defense because they've played the Titans, the Patriots, and the Broncos in a row. Facing this offensive line, I'm with you, Sam Donald gets a lot of time.
Time time to pick another one. In this game.
Will Breese Hall have over eighty four total yards from scrimmage?
And I think he actually will.
Despite how little I think of the Jets offense in this matchup against Bryan four Oys's defense, I think one place that you can get yards is Breese Hall, specifically in the screen game, in the quick passing game. To keep Aaron Rodgers safe, happy and healthy in his trip to London, I think that means a lot of Breeze Hall. It's also gonna mean a lot of his backup as well, But I think Brees Hall gets that number of eighty four and a half. But let's go over because Greg,
you discussed Aaron Jones earlier today on our show. Do you think he goes over or under sixty two and a half rushing yard?
Oh?
I definitely like the receiving, but I like the rushing too.
We're going over for my great fantasy pick up this season, Aaron Jones. I knew he was ready for a big workload behind one of the most underrated offensive lines in the league. He's tough and look Will McDonald and you watch some of this Jets offensive defensive line really was getting washed out in the running game last week against Denver.
It's like Denver doesn't have a running game.
Week one, week two, Week three, Suddenly the running game wakes up against the Jets, and I think Aaron Jones keeps it going.
This is where I see the revenge for Sam Donald actually factoring in because Aaron Jones will do more work to make Sam Donald look even more perfect. So I like that one as well.
All Right, we discussed Aaron Rodgers.
Let's talk about a guy we think is the best player in this game. Justin Jefferson, will we have more or less than five and a half receptions since there?
What?
Fuck more? What are we talking about here? I already told you about those man stats. Do you know who the only receiver in the entire National Football League to have more than two hundred yards receiving yards against mancover geness? Is it? Justin Jefferson is and he has two hundred and three along with three touchdowns. I don't think any tendency gets shifted here. I don't think they say, hey, you know, let's be extra tricky and have Jordan Adison
do this. I'm not worried about Sauce Gardner. He lands up only on one side eighty two percent of the side on the left. If he lines up on the right, I guess they could tangle. But even if they're tangling, I don't care. I still think advantage JJ.
It's crazy because Justin Jefferson's stats this year aren't any better than they've been in the past, are a little lower, and yet I'm convinced he's the best player in the NFL. It's like the quarterbacks are down right now. Justin Jefferson is my number one.
All this Justin Jefferson talk may be motivating to the guy on the other side, and that's Garrett Wilson. I will answer the question if he's gonna have oh more or less than fifty three receiving yards, and because the jumper is fifty three, I'm going I'm going more strictly
because that's not a lot of yards. And Garrett Wilson, despite the fact that I know it's frustrating, You've been tracking the Jets, you're wondering, you're watching body language, you're doing all the weird stuff that people do when a team in New York isn't necessarily going going doing the way you want him to. But yeah, fifty three yards, it feels like a saint.
I mean, he did kind of throw his play caller under the bus publicly too, So that's not just ready into things.
But it's also a defense that's given up the most yards passing yards per game, so.
Because it's because teams are always just throwing against them all the time. But good point, good point, I'm just saying it's going over.
I don't know.
That just seems like what do you do in New York? Jesture, like we're like mob ties, Like I'm losing here.
I'm losing here there it is.
I feel like Kristin Wig and that skip from SNN.
We got the Colts and the Jags down in Duvall at zero to four. It's really now or never for Jacksonville to turn things around. Do they start things moving in the right direction?
Sunday?
I say they get their first win the Jaguars twenty seven to twenty three. Maybe this is wishful thinking. I'm going to cover the Jaguars next week. I want them to get a win. But look, the Colts don't go to Jacksonville and ever get a win. The last time it happened was twenty fourteen. Yes, Blake Bortles was playing for the Jaguars. Back then, Chad Henny was involved in this game and got benched very quickly. Andrew Luck was the quarterback. And you might say, oh, this is this
doesn't really matter. Hey, it's a division matchup that helps, you know, equalize things. And last year with these two same coaching staffs, Shane Steichen in his first year was a nice year for the Colts.
They got swept by the Jaguars.
So there's some recent history too that indicates it's a good matchup. And I think if you squint hard, you saw the Jaguars improved last week in Houston. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor's banged up. That is bad news. He is the most important Indianapolis cole. Don't think he's gonna.
Play in this game.
Yeah, Anthony Richardson was twelve years old the last time the Colts gotta win in Jacko.
I agree with Greg.
I do have a two point win for Jacksonville because the vast majority of the Jags returning targets from twenty twenty three live in Evan Ingram as well as Christian Kirk. This is going to be the first time since Week one that they've been on the field at the same time. For Jacksonville, the target share combined last year was thirty seven percent.
And that's with Calvin Ridley. I know things have been bad.
Trev's been taking a bunch of shots deep down the field. You know what helps in that because they haven't been connecting on those throwing the ball close to the line of scrimmage to your tight end who got over one hundred and forty targets last year.
I think the Jags have hope. Keep hope alive, guys.
I think the Jags have hoped too, but I don't have him winning escape. Now I will say there's a little asterisk here right now I have the Colts winning this one by one point. Oh it's a prime number. Hold on before we get into this andss okay, we need to talk about the prime numbers. Firs.
Let's do that.
That's when you pick a game that all on your own, like just crag is.
When you do a stray bond. Is when Patrick jues and look, we're it's in good ship. That's fun, right, No.
That is amazing. You went four and oh on the prime numbers.
I think you can look at it a different way when Patrick and I agree trouble is near.
So good job, good.
Job the Patriots against the Jets' warding.
High five me for a second.
Sure, let's go, let's go.
I hit two Jess Greig's last week's I'm happy about that.
Okay, okay, so.
All right back to this. You're looking at a picture of one Joe Flatterer is Yeah, I don't think he was twelve. The last time the Colts won in Jackson.
Was winning the Super Bowl. Yeah.
I think he was probably like thirty seven or something. I'm not sure how old he was, but ultimately here, I think that this says something. The difference in this team if Jonathan Taylor and if Joe Flacco is the quarterback makes it a completely different opportunity against this very vulnerable Jags defense. So I'm watching this injury report. I'm waiting to see, like, look, I think the thing I like the most of this game is like a Brian
Thomas junior touchdown. But other than that, I think that it could easily be the Colts depending on who the start. And by the way, even if Anthony Richardson starts, it could still be a Joe Flacco game, because that's what we saw last week as well.
I like Anthony Richardson, and I have to, you know, admit, I feel worse about our pick taking the Jaguars if Joe Flacco starts, Like, I trust that the Colts more with Joe FLACKO, I'm.
Gonna I'm not gonna go that far.
The Jugs need to get a win because they're about to hop on a plane and.
Go all the way across the Atlantic Ocean. Next week.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags play Caleb Williams and the Bears in London, a matchup of number one overall picks.
They're squaring off at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium.
Doug Peterson squad will stay in London for the Week seven game against the Patriots. You'll be able to catch both games right here on the NFL Network as well as NFL Plus. Let's churn through some more these games in our quick picks. The Giants and the Seahawks up Atloomenfield. Seattle fell to the Lions on Monday night. Greg does Gino's squad bounce back?
They absolutely do.
I have it closer than the number Seattle winning twenty four to twenty. But Gino gets it done throwing the ball to DK Metcalf, who is having a fantastic season. This Giant secondary just doesn't have anyone that can physically match up with DK Metcalf.
You want to know why that is?
Because there's no one on earth that can physically match up with DK Metcalf. So I love that Gino Smith is not afraid to fit the ball into tight windows. He is making sure to get his number one receiver involved each and every week.
He has had three games over one hundred yards. I feel like we just don't even talk. This is a really good team. We're still talking.
We're gonna be four and one. I'm gonna talk about him.
Yeah, we're gonna keep it. We're definitely gonna talk about him on this show. Let's go to the Raiders and the Broncos. Sean Payton's squad just one two straight on the road Las Vegas, dealing with the DeVante Adams trade saga.
Who wins here?
Yeah, I've done for winning this game. Twenty sixteen. We want to talk about Zach Allen, a fellow b C alone. We're going all over the place. We went Brian Flores now we're going with him. But ultimately at the defensive tackle position, he's twelve pressures. He's like really leading the way here, intur what are you laughing at?
Jump to Broncos scoring thirty.
Oh yeah, okay, we're having fun.
We're running the ball. This Raiders team, it's collapsing. I don't feel good about this.
Right because this is this show and we and you can even hear me under all this time. Just take Alexander Madison in whatever fantasy that's That's my other tip. On the other side, I think there's a little chaos and Raider view.
I'm like, did I really write that down? Or is this a typo? And they like transposed it from another game? Who couldn't even tell why?
That doesn't matter anymore.
The Broncos are going to light the scoreboard up. Let's go to another teleing over a game where you're.
Going to see a bucket, bucket loads of points. The Dolphins and the Patriots Snoopuntley against Jakobe Bressett. I've got the Fins just squeaking by here fourteen to thirteen because the Dolphins made more than a mistake last week against the Tennessee Titans. I do think the Snoop era Fins play a little bit better and get a win on the road because things have just not been going well for either of these teams. But I see a little bit hope, and I see a talent advantage going in favor of Miami.
I do think that talent plays off.
Yeah, the Patriots have so many injuries on defense. They could be missing multiple safeties. They're missing Juwan Bentley, they have defensive linemen missing, and then they lose their center, David Andrews, their captain, the most important guy on a unit.
That's just besieged.
This is the lowest moment maybe of the last twenty years for the Patriots that they are getting memed alert against this Snoop Huntley Dolphins team has been the worst team in the NFL the last couple of weeks, and still we can't take the Patriots.
I really cry so hard for you as a Patriots fan, except for you got a bunch of Super Bowls that you've actually witnessed, so it's gonna be okay.
The Shining the Tears Tears Trophy with the Tears when we come back here and.
Some of our favorite bets of the week.
You don't want to miss it because I've been on fire. Who kind of It's a game Deview presented by Mercedes Bits.
It's time for write this down here on game day.
Do you as we get to our predictions for Week five, Greg, what do you see taking place that the people need to take note of.
Well, it's gonna be in Cincinnati, and usually I try not to be overconfidence. Sports are unpredictable, except this week in the Ravens and the Bengals game.
This is my pick of the year. Ravens over the.
Bengals, they're gonna cover those two and a half points. And you know what, Lamar Jackson is also gonna have over fifty five rushing yards. But it's especially about the game. This Bengals defense cannot hold up against Lamar in this rushing attack. You ever listen, like on Sunday mornings to those those weirdo like radio shows where they're just like, I guarantee.
This is gonna happen.
I'm not gonna go that far, but I feel great about this Ravens game. I will have egg on my face and if I'm wrong, it won't matter because I'm not here next week.
I'll be in London.
Well we're going to miss.
That was a massive flex on us. I won't be here. They're sending me over to a couple of the important things. All right, So mine we already talked about it. Ceed Lamb, he's going to have at least six and a half receptions, which means he's going to have at least seven receptions. I already told you about the fact that he has his streak going of more than four and thirty seven games.
But also they don't have anyone else, so it may take a lot of tries but between he and his tight end, you're going to have a really big output from CD Lamb. And by the way, in this game, also you know that TJ. Watt is half a sack away from having one hundred sacks. This is this one hundred and ninth game. So I would actually put those two things together and write both of them down.
I love that over under CD Lamb targets in this game, I'm going fifteen, Like it's just all see Lamb all the time.
Fifteen conservative, Yeah.
Because like where else are they going to go?
We got no Brandon Cooks And this one might write this down is going to be Javonte Lou Because there's a lot of conversations about what's what's hard to do in sports, and people say hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do. I think the hardest thing to do is run for seventy seven yards when your offense passes for sixty yards and has negative seven passing yards in the first half, which Avonti Williams did against the Jets was incredible to me, and over fifty two yards
feels like a reprieve for Javonte Williams. But the number I'm wondering is Greg and the pints in London while we're in missing Greg formation here.
Greg, well, you haven't hung out with me enough. I guess because it's like over under half of pint. I would say, we need to get you a bum bag. Do not call it the thing Americans call it. You cannot do that there.
That is wrong.
Nope, fanny packs, you can't call it in your own.
No right, say travels to Greg. We'll see you next week.
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