Wow. Wow, Hey everybody, It's Thursday, January second, twenty twenty five. Welcome to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, where we were also Pro Bowl Snubs. It's me and your man m G. Marcus Grand joined by Michael F. Florio and Laqwan Jones. Happy New Year, gentlemen. Flora, you and I have been in the same spot since the calendar rolled over. Lakwan, you and I have not. How did you spend your New Year's Eve?
If you don't mind me asking, uh boring, I mean, it was just another day, man. I didn't stay up. I had worked that night for Good Morning Football, so I was out by seven o'clock.
Yeah.
I rolled up yesterday to work at like eight thirty in the morning, and Lakwan was leaving for the day, so I was like, ooh, I'm not even gonna ask how his night went.
No, it was a school night for a lot of us because January first, While it was New Year's Day around the world, it was just Wednesday for a lot of us, and we had shows and the like to do. So yeah, it was just kind of a school night. I was in bed by like eleven twenty. The fireworks in my neighborhood started actually a little bit before midnight, but they went crazy right at midnight. I was probably slip by like twelve oh five, so that was that was kind of my New Year's Eve. Anyway, we still
got stuff to talk about. I know it is week eighteen. I know for most folks, your fantasy season is done, So congratulations to all of you out there who won a Fantasy championship. Better luck next year to the rest of you who did not. But for a lot of folks, I know there's still some daily Fantasy that folks are going to be playing. I know there's some sort of season long awards maybe like total points and that sort
of thing for a lot of leagues. So we're gonna kind of dive in to today's show mostly from a daily Fantasy perspective, some good picks, some guys to spend up four guys to avoid that sort of thing, and then we'll have our own DFS lineups for the end of the show. Also some hot takes for twenty twenty
five coming up at the end of the show. But want to get started with kind of a little bit of what we learned, and I know that in the offseason We're to spend a lot of time kind of diving into things that happened and kind of spinning that forward to next year. But just kind of a first look at things we're taking away from the twenty twenty four season, and Lakwan, what was something that stuck out to you at least as we kind of first dive into this sort of thing.
So like three years, like, I've had this mindset and like a lot of fantasy managers have the same mindset that Vyum is king, but that isn't always necessarily true. Like volume isn't always going to be king if the situation sucks. So when I look at some of these examples of like wide receivers, man like guys that have over one hundred plus targets, a healthy target share of like twenty plus percent, but averaging less than twelve Fantasy
points per game. But there's information out there, like a Michael Pittman or a Calvin Ridley, guys that had these question marks around them at the quarterback position. With Will Levis and Anthony richardsoning, if they could get on the same page, of course they're going to see a ton of volume. Of course you're going to see over one
hundred targets. But these targets aren't valuable. But then you get to a guy like Marvin Harrison Junior, where the number one top wide receiver prospect, the talent is out of the wazoo, but just didn't work out. So when you have these examples and we have this information before going into the draft, we kind of have to analyze and look at the bigger picture, especially with Marma Harrison Junior.
Looking at the Cardinals the last two seasons, they're bottom of the table when it comes to wide receiver production. A lot of people don't know that or look at that. They're among the Titans, the Ravens, the Steelers when it comes to wide receiver production because they're dead last and wide receiver receptions and thirty first and wide receiver receiving yards. So these are things and examples that we have the information for that we have before draft day. We need
to take that more an account. Maybe Vyum isn't going to be king if the situation isn't king.
I mean with the Cardinals being bottom of the table, as you say, I love that you said that. By the way, is Jonathan Gannon going to get sacked at the end of the year maybe.
Or the offensive coordinator. Like I know that some of the Cardinals fans, you know, talking to Kelly, you know, when we had our also ra episode for the ram Trecap podcast, but more so looking at like they're not happy with Drew. They're not happy with this offense and how these wide receivers aren't being held to the high tier. And you can't really blame Kyler Murray. I mean, he's dealt with his injuries and he's only produced one top twenty five wide receiver in his career, Like it's crazy.
DeAndre Hopkins twenty twenty is the only one. Everybody else outside the top twenty five. I mean, Christian Kirk was the closest one, which was in twenty twenty one where he finished wide receiver twenty six. So I think there needs to be a change at offensive coordinator. I do blame Kyler Murray.
You do.
Because I was very high on Marvin Harrison Junior this year for exactly the point that you made Lakwan like the only receiver he's really elevated was d hop And I was like, all right, he's got his new d hop here.
But like you bring up.
Christian Kirk and it's like, Okay, Christian Kirk got so much better when he left, Like I want Kyler Murray to be so good, but at like he's in what year six, year seven now, and it's like, also, I don't think the Cardinals have taken enough heat this year, Like they were what six and four controlling the division and then they lost like six of seven or whatever.
It is like that's bad. It is bad. It is bad. And I think I think to your point, Lakwan, now you look at d hop you look at that season that he had with Kyler Murray, and it's more that liked hop elevated Kyler as opposed to the other way around, right, because Hopkins has been good wherever he's been, Right, Obviously, he was a stud in Houston, he was very good in Arizona. Even a diminished DeAndre Hopkins has had some
moments in Kansas City. So it's apparent that really Kyler just sort of is who he is at this point. And you know, I think we know, I think this is gonna be the year because everybody, not everybody, but a lot of people were big on Kyler in having a good year, and it's been meh, to say the least. And I think this is gonna be the year that you see a lot of people just sort of let go of the rope on the idea that Kyler Murray can be an elite certainly any regular quarterback. I think
that kind of passed already. But even the idea of him being any lead fantasy quarterback is pretty much over at this point. The other point I was really gonna make to what you were saying initially is this Quorter goes back to the old argument Lakwan of do you want an alpha in a bad offense versus maybe a
secondary guy in a good offense? You know, I mean, like you know, I think I'm looking at it, Missie, like as a wide receiver thing, right, Like you know, do you want to be you would you rather have a T. Higgins? You know, who obviously is the number two there in a good passing offense in Cincinnati, versus say, I'm looking at a bad offense. I don't know Jacobe Myers, for instance, who is the number one wide receiver in a bad offense in Las Vegas?
So yeah, I mean, I honestly T. Higgins just seems a lot better as overall as a talent. I mean, if you make that comparison and Jacoby, but I get it. Sometimes you look at the elik Neighbors like he's another one that we had the information that it's bad quarterback play there, but you're just hoping on the talent that he could just elevate a bad quarterback. Sometimes that happens, but it's a lot of situations that you can't really like predict like that.
Neighbors and Thomas make me put a little bit more blame on Marvin Harrison Junior as well.
Yeah, like Thomas balled out with Mac Jones. Yeah yeah, yeah, Well, I mean I think I think you sawt about elite neighbors too. Is another one who you know, the quarterback play was really bad. Four quarterbacks all awful, really bad. They're in uh, you know, in New York. But meliite neighbors still found a way to be productive more often than not. For sure.
I like how I secretly put so much heat on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals right now? Yeah, I mean an agenda.
I don't think. I don't think you were saying anything that we didn't already believe. It is just it's just vocalized a little bit right now, Floria, What was your big takeaway from the early part of this off season.
What Brock Bauers and Trey McBride at the latest our second round picks next year. I think with a quarterback upgrade and at least in Vegas, you could make an argue I will never be the person taking a tight end in the first round. I also probably won't be taking one in the second round. But I do believe that these guys belong in the second round because of what they gave you this season. Like Rock Bauers tight end one on the year, Trey McBride right behind him.
George Kittle was sandwiched in there, but it was a point apart from what McBride was. And I keep saying it like if Trey McBride caught two or three touchdowns, we're talking about him being the tight end one.
So as much as we.
Just poop pooed Kyler Murray for wide receivers and stuff, he has been elite at getting the ball to tight ends. Trey McBride was the tight end one last season in points per game with Kyler Murray. He was right behind Brock Bauers.
This year and that.
So yeah, Anders, I mean you speak about bad quarterback play. He did it with Gardner, Minshew Aoc and Desmond Ritter. Like I know that the Raiders, I don't know why, after being the front runner to get the first overall pick all year, we're like, let's win out a couple of games here and put ourselves at eighth overall.
But even so, like they're not.
Gonna make the same mistake they did last year, right where they're like, oh, we'll get our guy at eight and we won't bring in a veteran that we trust her something like that.
I don't know.
I don't see the quarterback play being this bad. So yeah, I think those to me, move over Kittle, move over Kelsey, these are the new elite tight ends moving forward.
To my opinion, I want to believe. I want to hope that the Raiders get better quarterback play next year. So I mean, so, this is but this is my This is not me throwing shade at the Raiders. This is me looking at this objectively because right now I think they're in the eighth spot in the draft order, which means, you know, barring them trading up, which is not impossible. But bar them trading up neither cam Ward. No,
Suregar Sanders is going to be there. The list of free agent quarterbacks not great, great, right, so, like, I don't know unless they somehow feel like they can resurrect Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers or I mean just you look at that, you go up and down the list of free agent quarterbacks. It's not great. It might be another year, maybe Jamis.
Maybe Hey, Ryan Tannehill, why not justin.
I'm waiting for you. I'm waiting for either of you to say a name that excites me, and you have not done that yet.
The only name that excites me realistic, I mean Russell Wilson little, but it's Sam Darnold.
But JJ McCarthy, yeah, I mean less they want to make a trade. Although if you're the Vikings, do you want to move JJ McCarthy right now? It just doesn't seem like you want to do that because Sam Don has been great. He's not a guy you feel like you can rock with for the next five to seven years, right, Like, just it's just not so. I don't think the moving. I don't see him the moving that Russ I think
stays in Pittsburgh. Because what he did for them. Do you think Sam moved, I think I think I don't think Sam moves. I think Vikings going next year making a decision about who's the starter. But I think they have both Sam and JJ. I think those are both their quarterbacks. I think I think the option potentially out
there is Justin Fields. That may be the option for them, And I know that was it feel it felt like that was part of the equation last year, that maybe they would bring in Justin Fields, and it didn't quite happen. They were also targeting Michael PINNOCKX and the the Falcons pulled the rug out from underneath them by drafting Pinicks as early as they did, So maybe it's Fields. I don't know that that's a huge quarterback.
Up Tommy Putlitz is out there, Tommy, oh my god, no, so like Justin Fields.
So like Justin Fields. I don't know if that's a huge quarterback up grade for them next year.
It feels like a giant to me. I'm going to say it now. I feel like he feels like he could probably operate that offense and save you know, whatever left of that staff is left. But honestly, I don't think the Vikings move on from Sam Donald, So I think that's our question. That'd be really silly, like why would you do that? And what if Sam Donald shows exactly who he is next year? So you keep them and then you have JJ there for the replacement.
But they're gonna have to pay Sam though, You're gonna have to give him a lot of money.
Maybe you tag him. I don't know.
Yeah, I think obviously I think that's I think that's what happens. I think I think they tag him next year. That makes sense. Also, the idea of Justin Field's going to the Giants makes me sad. From elite neighbors, it makes it makes my heart hurt. From lak n it does it just does what pick are they there? They're the second pick. They've fallen a couple of spots because they decided to go out. They just had to go
out and like you know, just wax the Colts last week. So, uh, they've fallen a little bit in in their draft, your draft spot, I believe, as I pulled this up real quick, they're number four at the moment.
Why the Titans are clearly taking a QB the Browns. Who knows and the Patriots I think are just going to sell that pick, so maybe interesting draft time for real.
My last thought on your point, though, is I definitely think Bowers and McBride. I can't think of them in the first round. I don't know that there's any tight end right now that's worthy of a first round pick, just because if you're doing that, I need that tight end to be such a single player advantage at the
position that it's impossible to ignore. That was why in twenty twenty two, like twenty twenty three, we were looking at Travis Kelce in the first round, because in twenty twenty two he was one hundred points better than the tight end too, Like he was way above everybody else. Brock Bearers, is that an amazing season. He's fifteen points ahead of George Kittle right now, Like that's not so much of an advantage that I'm taking him in the first round, second round all day. I will take Brock
Bauers for sure. My early takeaway is that it feels like running backs are start to make a comeback in fantasy football. This was a year that we had more guys at two hundred and fifty or more points than we've had in a really long time, and it feels like more teams are starting to lean on one running back than ever before. So this year, ten different, eleven different running backs had at least two hundred and fifty
Fantasy points. It's been a while since we've had that many get to at least the two hundred and fifty point barrier. Here, and you go up and down the list, right, you look at the guys. Saquon obviously a workhorse, Bijon for the most part of workhorse, Dereck Henry Davon, a Chan, Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams, Alvin Kamara went healthy. You know, Chase Brown took over as the workhorse guy there in Cincinnati one Zach Moss went down, James Connor the same thing.
Tuba Hubbard missed two hundred and fifty points. Probably would have gotten there if he doesn't get hurt. He was a guy that was by himself. He could say the same for Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones. So many guys that we haven't you know, we just haven't seen this number of guys that you look at and you're like, there wasn't really a lot of competition for them for long
stretches of the season. It gives me hope that we can start to draft guys and have them be true RB ones, and maybe they're not all first round guys, right. I mean, I think when you look at first round running backs next year, you're looking at uh, you know, Jean Robinson for sure. You know. I think I think you can make a case for Bressee Hall. I think you're gonna see a lot of people draft Saquon, although I've got a theory a little bit later on in the show as to why maybe that's a bad idea.
I think Gibbs, that Gibbs is going to be one. But I think we can see more guys that we're going to draft as RB ones who we can sort of make a strong case for them having solid workloads and not having enough competition that you have to really be worried about it. I don't know if I am I crazy on that, Florio.
I don't think so.
And to me, I do think.
There's a lot of like Derrick Henry, He's not going to be a first round pick because of age, concern mixing and stuff like that.
But it also lines up.
Remember, like I know, this is like forever ago, but like weeks four or five, six, in the middle of the season, there was a lot of stuff coming out about defenses playing.
Too high at the highest rate ever.
And trying to take away the long ball from a lot of these explosive quarterbacks. The correction from the offense has been our right, We're just gonna keep running the ball again. So it's a reminder that time is a flat circle, and as offenses adjust, the defenses that adjust, and then the offense adjusts back, and it's just kind of a repeated thing.
Yeah. No, I think this is gonna be a situation where this year is and maybe maybe we see running backs pulled up into the first round a little bit more. I'm not sold on that part of the equation yet, but I do feel good about guys. You'll be drafted, probably in the second round coming up.
I'm still faingning first round running backs like I think I'm done. Like I think I'm done, like you. There's one name you didn't mention, Christian McCaffrey. Word does he said? Is he still in the first round? Like that's your guy?
Yeah, I don't think he's a first round guy. I think he's a second I think he's a solid second round guy.
Does the fantasy streets agree because we all know how this works, we all know how the offseason works. We forget begin to meet with and then a big name.
Yeah, I think the case for him and I could see, like I could see him sneaking late into the first round being that guy you take around the turn. And I think the argument is, yeah, obviously this year injury was a big driving factor, but the Niners offense is still going to be pretty good. Maybe it's not going to be where it was a couple of years ago, it's still going to be pretty good. And we know, when healthy, McCaffrey's still going to be out there for
like seventy five eighty percent of the snaps. He's still going to get the majority of the opportunity, So volume is still going to be there. He's still a talented player. You worry about the health, but I think a lot of the factors that made him a first round pick for all these years, a lot of those things are still going to be in play next year. And I think that's going to be the argument. But I do, I do think you do think he's gonna be around, you know, eleven twelve somewhere around there.
Another argument is going to probably be who do you draft as the handcuff? Is it Jordan Mason or Isaac Grendo. That's gonna be the real nasty.
That is gonna be a draft another running back. It's yeah, It's just that's.
How it goes. Yeah, when you know when they're drafting Woody Marks out of USC and like putting him in there or something like that, you're gonna be like, now what Wow? So I mentioned obviously for a lot of folks, Daily Fantasy is gonna be a big part of Week eighteen. Have some some kind of options for you as we're diving through, and then later on the show we'll give you our our lineups for Daily for this week. But how to a few categories. First, the player that is
worth spending up for four week eighteen and laquad. If you're breaking the bank on a certain player, who is it going to be for you?
I'm dropping a big bag on Joe burrow Man. Honestly, at seventy five hundred, you kind of have to build around your roster with him. But last time he played the Steelers eighty two combined points. Last time these two teams met. He put up three hundred yards and three touchdowns last time, and Joe Burrow has been on a straight heater man. I mean, he's been going out there putting up huge points and they have everything to play for.
They need to make sure they handle business win this game just so that they can have a shot going into the playoffs. And honestly, Joe Burrow showing his frustrations with this team has been, you know, great to see from even though he's been playing his way into the MVP conversation with Josh Allen Lamar Jackson. So he's going to be going out there to handle business and then in a big way in the Steelers secondary, they've been
kind of sketchy entire season. So, like I said, eighty two combined points last time they met, and Burrow took an l last time, so I know he's looking for revenge.
Yeah. Also, you know, keep in mind this might possibly be the last time we see Burrow, Jamar Chase, and T Higgins all on the field together. You know, obviously the Bengals hoping to make the playoffs, but also the chance that maybe we don't see T. Higgins come back next year, so maybe they go out with one last big bang on the game that they have to win to have a shot the playoffs.
And the Steelers might not need anything that, Like if the Ravens win the game before that, they can't win the division.
So could get a lot of backups too, Very true, very very true. Also though, Florio, you got a guy that has a lot to play for as well and has a very good matchup this week.
Yeah, the matchup was what I circled because it's Bucky Irving. He's seventy seven hundred, which sounds expensive, but then you look at what he's done recently, like the floor is super safe, he brings the highest ceiling. He bawled out the first time he played the Saints, but now the Saints in their last two games have allowed almost three
hundred rushing yards and three touchdowns to running backs. So, and like you said, there's a plenty of incentive there because the Bucks, they are in the best situation you want a team to be in. This week, you win and you're in like they know everything is on the line for them this week. They're not gonna get cute and pull their starters or something like that. And something that I talked about the Bucks a few weeks ago.
They got a little bit of the Lions in them in this sense of like they could be up four scores, they're still throwing the ball around.
The park and stuff.
So and if this is the case this week, I expect it to be a lot of Bucky even grinding out the clock.
So yeah, he was.
I also tried to get Baker and Mike Evans in They're a little bit more pricier, but Bucky was the first name that I selected outside of I want.
It to be different.
But the name that you have next Marcus is a slam dunkyst Oh.
Yeah, no, that was a first one by where like by far that I was gonna go after. And that's Jean Robinson. The Falcons obviously they need the Bucks to lose. They have to win. They need the Bucks to lose in order to have a shot at the division title. But they play at the same time. They're in the early slate of games on Sunday. But Jean Robinson's been
fantastic over the back part of the season. Most of the season, I shouldn't say back par season, but most of the season, but especially the last few weeks, has really I think gone to another level. He's gonna be one of those guys that when we talk next year, he's gonna be an easy first round pick for a lot of people, but also a really good matchup coming
up this week. He's gonna get plenty of opportunity to get the football and has a really good shot to go out and put up a really good number against the Carolina Panthers, whose run defense has been bad all year long has not gotten any better. So even at eighty five hundred, it is worth making space for him in your lineup. Feels like the guy you start with and then you build around after that to try and make sure you can build a pretty good line of
Jeon Robinson feels like a slam dunk value option. Lakwan, who's your your value option? Oh?
I mean, look, we're going to stay in the same game that you just left. I mean, Michael Pennix Junior. This is a great value play, a fifty four under.
I mean, Pennis look good these last two games and this offense, and we're seeing Zach Robinson, the offensive coordinator, kind of crack open that playbook as the weeks have gone on, and honestly, it looks like he can handle business within the division, being that the Falcons are four and one, averaging damn there thirty points per game against them. So we're looking at this offense and how Pennix has
looked these last two games. You might look at the score or the box score and try to compare to last year games with Kirk Cousins are kind of similar, but you're getting a lot more out of Michael Pennis. You're punting the ball less, you're getting more yards per play, you're getting more plays per drive, you're getting more red
zone drives and opportunities to score. So with this Panthers defense, they've been very generous to quarterbacks all season long, and Pennix has shown that he can run this offense, get out of the pocket, get out of trouble, unlike Kirk Cousins playing when saying in mud how he's running. But more so, this offense just looks like they're able to score way more points. So this puts Pennis in the perfect position and situation that have the opportunity to put up big points.
I do think Pennis is going to be an interesting talking point this offseason where we're drafting him because he's played well in a couple of starts, maybe not necessarily eye popping numbers, but you got to be happy with kind of what you've seen out of him. So I'm curious where people are gonna feel comfortable taking him in drafts next year. For sure, Florio, you got a running back who's starter is not likely to see the field this week.
Yeah, they've already. They've ruled it's Michael Carter. They have ruled out both Benson and James Connor, I believe already. So it's gonna be the Michael Carter Show, which is crazy because he's only played two games and it's the last two weeks. But hey, i mean, if he's got, like last week, thirteen carries in those two games, he has seven targets, so we know he could he's caught all of them as well, so he's more of a
floor play. But the forty nine ers we've seen and this is something that you spoke about a lot in the later part of the season, Marcus, like their run defense wasn't the same as it has been in past years and earlier on in the year, and Michael Carter like, I'm going to talk about it again, and like you want to target people who have something to play for this week, and I know the Cardinals are eliminated, but Michael Carter's playing, like again, he only played the last
two weeks this season. He is playing for his next contract, is the next job. He wants to put good stuff out there on tape. So at forty seven hundred, I was like, yeah, you know what, I'll take the safe floor with the chance of him hitting a little bit more because it's a game with two teams that are out of it, so he's going to be trying. Maybe the forty nine ers though rest one of their defensive starters or something like that.
So yeah, I.
Saw him at that price and I was like, all right, yeah, I'll take the shot on him.
Yeah. It's been an interesting kind of a side note to this is that a few years ago, Michael Carter Javonte Williams coming out of North Carolina about the same time. It was like, man, both these guys seem set up for huge success, and neither one of them have really reached that. Javonte has been a little bit better, but even he has sort of had to deal with between injuries and now a coach that doesn't want to seem to use him. Carter's always just been stuck behind guys.
It just never quite turned out the way that I thought it would when they were both coming out of college. For me, my value pick at fifty six hundred is going to be Kenneth gain Well, because we know Saquon is not going to play, so we know it's gonna be Kenneth gain while getting a whole lot of opportunity, good matchup against a Giants run defense that's been bad
when they've played all their guys. You know, curious to see how much of their starters play this week, or a team that really has nothing to play for in anything. You know, if you are the front office, you would prefer to lose this game to try to get you a little bit closer to that number one spot in the draft. So you know, I would imagine their starters begin the game, but whether or not they finish the
game is a different situation. But I do see a good workload for Kenneth Gaine, while an opportunity to put up some good numbers with Saquon sitting this one out in the regular season finale. Meanwhile, red flags Lakwan now this one, I see the name, you would know better than the rest of us how this might potentially turn out. But still kind of surprised me that you put this guy here.
Yeah, red flag. If you're going to be a billion your lineups with Kira Williams in there in fresh of all, I'm going to break the rules oral quick, A huge red flag on the NFL. How does he not get the Pro Bowl?
Bull?
Like, how is Kira Williams not in the Pro Bowl but Josh Jacobs is when we're looking at almost thirteen hundred yards, fourteen touchdowns with three hundred and fifty touches Like Kyra Willis has been amazing this season, I mean seven games with consecutive touchdowns at least one Like, how does he not get in?
So?
Huge red flag on the NFL for that, man, I'm really upset about that. But more so, he could be very limited in this game. There's nothing really for him to play for. He could possibly be inactive. But McVeigh talked about it earlier to see other earlier this week, his excitement to see Blake Korm get the opportunity, So don't try to fit him into your lineup with the matchup being great for him On the ground and for him to pad these numbers even more even though not
going to the Pro Bowl. But there could be a possibility that he could have a very limited role.
So your point about the Pro Bowl here's so much and I never get it worked up about Pro Bowl snubs, is that by the time you get to the game, about half the league ends of getting named to the Pro Bowl.
Yeah, but it works out.
He could be like the Ravens have nine and the Bills have two.
I mean, just like it's like, you know, between whoever's going to the Super Bowl, obviously those players aren't gonna be there. You're gonna have guys who were hurt, guys who just would rather opt out, like you know, eventually everybody. That's how you end up with Pro Bowl quarterback Tyler Huntley. Like that's how it happens, you know, So Tyler Tyron Taylor. It is for who's your red flag for the week?
Uh, anyone not on a team playing for anything, Like like I had Josh Allen on Fantasy Lovey yesterday because he's gonna start.
But that's it.
He's gonna play a handful of snaps, they said, and that's it. I expect maybe James cooking that same game, he's like nineteen yards away from a thousand. Maybe they let him get that and then pull him. The Patriots are already kind of toying with the idea of sitting Drake Maye to quote unquote protect him, aka protect the number one pick.
So like stuff like that.
Even on primarily it's on teams that are still going to the playoffs that have already clinched their playoff spot because they're gonna definitely sit all of their guys. But like teams that are out of it, we see a lot of the times in Week eighteen they want to give their younger guys a shot. See what they have
put some stuff on films. So for me, when when we go over our DFS lineups and I think your guys are very similar, I targeted teams that are still fighting for their playoff lives because those are the only teams treating Week eighteen like a regular week, like one night you were going out there and you need to win. So that anyone not on one of those teams is not someone I'm really all that excited to include in my lineup.
Yeah, I mean I think that, I think that's very true. Especially if you're playing DFS this week. You just want guys that you feel like has a good they have a good shot to play all four quarters or at least, you know, three plus quarters of their game to give you a decent number similar to your thought. Though, I think Nico Collins is one that I would tend to shy away from just because he's still priced really high.
I mean, he's considered obviously, like the way he's performed this year, is one of the higher upper echelon wide receivers at seventy eight hundred, going against a Titans defense that's been tough on wide receivers all year long. In a situation where the Texans say they're going to play their starters, but for how long? You know, how long are we are they going to see CJ. Stroud and Joe Mixon and Nico Collins and those guys. Because the Texans are locked into a playoff spot. They are the
four seed pretty much regardless. Nothing can change that. So at some point there's nothing to gain by having your guys in there the whole time. So it's a combination of not expecting to see them for a full game. Also the fact that you know the matchup's not good. I think that's a way to get away from Nico Collins in your daily lineups. This week, I'm gonna take a quick break come back. We're gonna give you our full DFS lineups four week eighteen, plus some hot takes
for twenty twenty five. Probably won't be the last time we do hot takes for twenty twenty five. That's coming up next on the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. So we gave us, We gave you rather some your guys to drop the bag on, some values, some guys to avoid. Now we just put together and put together a full daily lineup for folks out there who are still tinkering around that sort of thing. In a week eighteen, I mean, Lacon, take us through your lineup. Please.
Oh man, I love my lineup actually, Like I was like looking at this like a man, I haven't built such a strong lineup in a very long time. But at the quarterback position, I'm going bow Knicks. He hasn't disappointed me in the last couple of weeks, and he's just been playing great football. And then you dropped the bag on Vijon for the reasons that you explained earlier. You already know that these last couple of weeks, he's just been phenomenal through the Fantasy playoffs, so why not
top it off with a great season. Kenny Gang, Well, Kenny g knows how to play a tune when he's given opportunities. The matchup is just way too juicy. Such a value play too. Where he's at Marvin Mims as my number one wide receiver that I just chose. I had to smash him in there with that connection with bow Knicks, just based on the connection they've had these last couple of weeks. Sean Payton knows who Marvin Mims him, Like, it's incredible that he knows who this guy is.
Did he just find out? Did you just find out?
Feels like that like Jingle all the way when Jamie goes he knows my name, like Floria, you know what I'm talking about, Like it's crazy that Marvin Min's has been showing up on that people. But JSN, we already know great value there where he's at. And then Jordan Addison those three three wide receivers. I love that combo there. And then I have John Newsmith at the tight end position. Self explanatory. It's starting forget for the rest of the season.
He's probably gonna be scoring so many touchdowns if the Dolphins make the playoffs. Jalen Coker man, he's just showing up since injury. He's just shown up in flash create great connection with Bryce Young making the big plays when he's getting the opportunity. And then I go with the Jaguars defense. The last four games, they've a lot less than eighteen points per game. I don't know why they're showing up and showing out. I don't know why they're taking the ball away two sacks per game in the
last four games, like they're getting at their quarterback. I don't know how they're showing up, but they're showing up and showing out. So that's my dff DFS lineup that I think is pretty strong.
I do love you going John Smith though there right Like, if he's gonna punish me, he's gonna punish me. I should at least get some benefit out of it. So I guess I respect the hustle for sure. Floria, what's your lineup look like?
I realized that my lineup is kind of like a combination of the two of your guys, but I went with Sam Darnold at quarterback, because you guys have watched the Lions defense as of late, and y'all know their offense is awesome. So to win against the Lions you have to outrun them in a track meet. I want that in my lineup. I've already spoke about Bucky Irving
and Michael Carter at my running backs. Jefferson was really expensive, but I went with Jordan Addison to complete that stack there, which Addison's been bawling out as of late, and I don't think he gets enough credit. Jalen McMillan has been awesome as of late, sixteen Fantasy points per game in the last month, six touchdowns in those four games. Courtland Sutton because again it's a game where the Broncos need to win. The Chiefs are going to be sitting a
lot of their guys. I have Sam Laporta the opposite of my QB wide receiver stack because we talked about this on Fantasy Live yesterday. In the last like half of the season, Sam Laporter is giving you Sam Laporter type numbers again, so what I think would be a high scoring game.
I went there. I got Blake Corman.
I was surprised you did not LQ rumors that he is going to get a lot of volume to really showcase what he can be. He really hasn't had that opportunity yet this year. And then I went with Seattle because Jimmy G Man like it's gonna be Jimmy G the whole game. He's rocking the gray hair and all that. I'm like, all right, yeah, I'll get the Seahawks for super cheap because everyone it's priced as if the RAMS starters are playing, but we all know they're not.
Yeah, yeah, I trust me the text chain I have. I'm sure if Jimmy G starts playing like Jimmy garoppolo, it will be lighting up with people saying, you know, it'll be like the It'll be the Leonardo DiCaprio pointing at the screen meme like yeah, I know that, I know that guy. I've seen that guy.
He took shots at you guys, so you guys got to take shots back, Like I mean, like.
With his brother like out here texting or ig and jokes and stuff about Kyle Shanahan. It's like, bro, you you might want to keep quiet, want to pipe down, They want to stick this out. You might want you might just want to sit this one out. Bro for sure. Well, as you mentioned Florio, your lineup kind of a mishmash of what the Lakwan and I put together. I went Sam Darnold at the quarterback spot, Jon Robinson, I mentioned the guy to pay up for, so I actually started
with Robinson there and trying of worked around that. But but Jon Robinson for sure. Against the Panthers I wanted. I took Isaac Garrindo because look, he's gonna get a lot of opportunity to close this thing out. They got Josh Dobbs starting at quarterback with no brock Perty. I can't imagine they're gonna let Josh Dobbs throw the ball a ton of time, so it could be a run heavy game plan for the forty nine ers against a not so great Cardinals run defense. Went with Jordan Addison to
complete the stack. Also to Calvin Ridley, who has been a little bit better with Mason Rudolph than I anticipated, and again sort of with Houston. I know defensively they've been pretty good, but I don't know how much they're gonna play their guys coming up this week, and so I do think that the Titans want to finish strong. We'll try to want to try to finish with a win. I like Calvin Ridley. Against the Texans, I took Jayleen McMillan.
I sort of went with both Addison and McMillan because I wasn't sure who I wanted at quarterback initially, but I knew I wanted to stack a wide receiver with the quarterback. But I also didn't necessarily want to pay up for the wide receiver ones in Minnesota and Tampa. It ended up going. I ended up with the Darnold Addison stack. But I took McMillan nonetheless, because he's been playing some really good football in a game again that the Bucks have to have coming up this week. Took
Mike Gasiki. I just didn't love any of the tight end options either. They were sort of higher priced guys in bad matchups. They were guys that I didn't think we're going to play the majority of the snaps. I just didn't really love the situation. It's not a bad matchup for Gasiki against Pittsburgh. The Bengals are likely to play their guys for the entirety of four quarters, and you know, maybe he sneaks one into the end zone and does it really awful gritty, and I end up
feeling okay about it. My flex option, I went with the Kenneth Gainwell and mentioned him expected to get the majority of the work with no Saquon Barklay, and I finished it up. I know, I said the Texans probably wouldn't play their guys the whole time, but also the Titans still give up a lot of sacks and Mason Rudolph might throw it to the other team once or twice, So I still feel okay with taking the Texans defense against the Tennessee Titans this week. So there you go.
Those are our lineups. You know, unless you record this and are like tracking this by hand, this is probably the last we're gonna speak of these on this show. So all right, as exactly as we finish out this show, time to start our look aheads for twenty twenty five. Will certainly not be the last time that we do this, but figure we might as well started off with some hot takes. So what are things, Laqua, that we are going to be talking about on this very podcast about a year from now?
Cale Williams being the steel of the draft man, and look, honestly, we look at his body at work this entire season. There's been sixteen games that I've said, Wow, that was impressive. Wow, how did he get that off? And like, man, the Bears have found their franchise quarterback. But it's like, overall, despite being sacked sixty seven times, which is insane, only eleven turnovers and he had nine games without an interception, So we know Cale Williams can play on an NFL level,
it's just the issues around him. So if the head coaching search goes on and they bring in an offensive mind, big Ben Johnson could be in mind. Cliff Kingsbury wants a second shot at becoming a head coach. I think that there is going to be opportunity to jump on Caleb Willimans very early in drafts and he's going to be a huge deal because he's still finished as a top fifteen quarterback. Like I don't know how he did it,
but he did it. So that just shows that there's still some type of opportunity for him to go out there and put up big points if we get the right offensive staff out there to get him to be unlocking that potential.
I don't disagree with that at all. I feel like he's going to be a bigger steal in like home leagues than he will be like with the nutcases like us, we're going to be drafting in like March and stuff like that. I think a lot of people are gonna be like, yeah, I like Caleb Williams like, but I think in home leagues, with people who aren't insane like the rest of them, they're going to look at Kale and be like, honestee, the big deal, and like he's gonna fall. And so I think in those leagues he's
absolutely gonna be a steal for sure. Florio your your hot take circles around another rookie quarterback from this year.
Yeah, you might have heard me already talk him up, but Drake May. I am a huge Drake May supporter.
And I'll be honest.
Coming out of college, I was like, he's got a lot of potential, but I want to see it translate a little bit because where he went to.
School and all that.
And I'm telling you, within like three games of watching him play, I was like, I am one hundred percent sold.
And I keep saying it. Don't look at the box scores like look.
You got eight months before we have to draft for you non sicicos and stuff. Just go watch some of Drake May's games like strong Arm is Mobile Playmaker. And one of the things the Patriots spoke about was they asked him not to run because they're not competing for anything this year, and they were like, if we were in the hunt, he'd be running a whole lot more, which is awesome for fantasy. And then on top of it, he's doing it with probably the worst O line in
weapons in the NFL. And not only do the Patriots have the first pick, and I said, they're probably gonna sell it off, they have all of their picks, they have the most cap space, and.
Unlike quarterback, there are good wide.
Receivers out there this year. There's t Higgins, Keenan, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, d Hop Marquis Brown.
And then the list gets a little bit dinner.
But like you can add competent has catchers, you add a couple of old linemen and then maybe a change at play caller, and I think Drake May could be like he's not going to be in that elite tier with like Alan Lamar, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow.
I will say Joe Bowers combined two players.
But I think in that secondary tier that's where Drake May will finish.
Who would you rather have next year, Drake May or bo Nix? Drake May for me? Okay, Bownicks for me? All right? I mean I don't think, you know, I just obviously it's a matter of opinion right now. BY think that's gonna be an interesting conversation. I think that's gonna be two guys that I think are gonna sort of line up similarly, because there are young guys who showed flashes this year who could use a little bit
of extra help with wide receivers. I think, you know, in Denver Courtland Sutton was nice, but they can't do it with him by himself. Drake May really didn't have any wide receivers in New England, so they're gonna have to fix that problem at all. But I do think there's a big step forward coming from May. You sort of the unsung hero I think of the rookie quarterbacks this year, and I think he acquitted himself very well considering the circumstances. My hot take and I don't know,
maybe this is not you think it's spicy. Yeah, I think that Sae Kwon Barkley will not be worthy of a first round pick next year. I think Sae Kwon Barkley in the second round is great. And I said this on Fantasy Live today. I know the pushback's gonna be well. Marcus he had two thousand rushing yards this year, and that is exactly my point is that he had
two thousand rushing yards this year. You go back and you look at the eight other players who've had two thousand yards in a season, and the drop off in terms of rushing production the next year has been dramatic. First of all, what happened in the two thousand yard season is that you had good health situations where everybody was able to play a full season. The next year, you had guys that suffered injuries, missed a couple of games.
In some cases, guys missed significant number of games. Derreck Henry went from sixteen to eight games. Terrell Davis went from sixteen to four games and just ran for two hundred and eleven yards. You look at the average number of rushing yards the following year, guys averaged just over one thousand yards per game, or a thoundand for the
season per game would be amazing. It was just over one thousand yards for the season the following year, even if you take out because one of the numbers was Terrell Davis Acord for two to eleven because he only played four games. If you take that out, the number still jumps to only twelve hundred yards. You take out, Let's say everything else for Saquon remains the same, but you drop him down to about twelve hundred yards or
so rushing. Next year, you're looking at about two hundred and fifty eight Fantasy points, which is right about where James Cook is right now. James Cook is the RB nine. Nobody is talking about taking James Cook in the first round next year. So I just think that this is one of those magical seasons for Saquon that has been amazing.
I don't think he's gonna be like a bust next year, but I think if if you're drafting him in the first round and you're thinking you're gonna get just this bananas video game like production, I think you're gonna look at Saquon and be like, what's wrong with Saquon Barkley? If he ends up being a second round pick, and he puts up similar numbers to what we've seen from
these other two thousand yard rushers. I think you feel great about it, but I think the knee jerk is gonna be like, yeah, man, he was amazing, He's in Philadelphia, everything's great. Let's take him in the first round. And I'm gonna tell you that I don't think I feel comfortable doing that right now.
So nope, there is agreed.
And so this is different Lakwan. This is a different thing. You're got drafting running backs in the first round. Like I'm willing to take a running back. I could take Bijon or somebody like that in the first round. I just don't think I want to take Saquon in the first round this year.
I'm the bitter X my hardest score. Now, I'm hurt. I'm part of that CMC one oh one group, you know, and I'm about done with it. And you look at Saquon's numbers, they're amazing. I mean, that's a heavy workload. And we're talking about Saquon possibly having the same workload in the playoffs, like he's going to be going through a lot of wear and tear. Same thing as CMC back to that theory I pointed to earlier in the summer, Like, I don't know if I want a guy that's working
this hard this year. I'm glad to be in the you know, the the magical story of him having two thousand yards and all these fantasy numbers. But next season, no, he's going to be god tired. He's going to be one out this fall season. Like, I don't want any parts of that. And I don't want to go out there and spend a high draft pick on a running back again when we've seen this story played over and over and over again.
Three hundred and forty five carries right now, his career in regular season is pre his career high was two ninety five, so that's already fifty more.
Oh my, yeah, all the numbers, people no fade faith, fait.
It just it just feels bad. Yeah, I know.
Older running backs hit this year, but like, I still don't want to use a first round pick on a twenty. He's gonna be twenty eight next month. Like it's like bijon games. These guys are what twenty three to twenty four, Like I could get behind that twenty eight.
You're too close to the cliff of falling off for me.
So yeah, I think as a show, we might be fading first round Saquon crazy.
Wow, all right.
You guys can I did not come into this episode thinking this way, but you.
Yeah, I mean because like it's funny, because I say, like I part of me is like this is like a spicy hot take. But I feel like we're all gonna kind of get together and start looking at this and realizing that, like, yeah, maybe maybe it's just not that that spicy a take. By the time we get to like, you.
Know, July, he'll still one hundred percent go in the first round, though, Yeah, I think I think consensus will put him in the first round.
But I think there's gonna be a lot of people out there who look at this and say, like, yeah, maybe not maybe just not for me. I also look forward to being in like October and being like, yeah, that was stupid to me. I don't know what I was thinking. I'm an idiot, So that's always That's certainly in the range of outcomes for me for sure. So there you go. Those are our hot takes for twenty
twenty five. We will do this again at some point in the off season, probably multiple times in the off season, a little bit of housekeeping. We are taking a break. We're taking a hiatus for a week, so all next week we will be dark. We'll be back with you after that. Two shows a week for at least through the NFL playoffs will be on Tuesdays and Thursdays. We're also going to revive the Fancy cheat Sheet this offseason. We're certainly grateful to all of you who kind of
made it a thing for us last year. It started with something fun and goofy for us to do, but it seemed like it found an audience, so we are certainly grateful for that. We're gonna bring it back next season. Stay tuned for your local listings for further details on that one. But in the meantime, that'll do it for this edition of the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, The Happy, Safe, and Healthy, Do good, and live well. Enjoy Week eighteen, everybody, and we will talk to you again real soon.