When to Go for It on Fourth Down

in mere minutes. What Yes, Verizon is going ultra so you can to five G Ultra wide ban available and select areas most reliable based on rankings from the Root Metrics US ROOT Score report dated first half, excluding c ban and not specific to five G networks. Your results may vary. Not an endorsement speed comparison to median Verizon four G LTE speeds downloads vary based on network conditions and five G content optimization. Up Work is the world's

work marketplace. Empower your business and hire the world's most in demand developers, designers, project managers and more at www dot up work dot com. So it's fourth down, they take their final time out. You've got a minute and five. Oh boy, well, you don't dare if you what do you do if your Baltimore right now? Don't just count the possibility that they go for this. No, you don't.

This's gonna be one hell of a call, though, and Lamar Jackson is going back on the field and they are going for it, or at least the hard at least line up. Chiefs had to make sure they don't jump and Jackson will get the first down and then affect on the game Mike. Week two of this season, Chiefs at Ravens a late fourth down in the game camera Scott John Harbaugh mouthing the words to Lamar Jackson,

do you want to go for this? It wasn't really the hardest call to make, but it was a tremendous moment just because you saw the synergy between the head coach and the player and this idea that the head coach is giving the player ownership of this moment. And I'll tell you this, nobody was calling for a punt right there, like nobody. So that is the topic of today's NFL Explained episode. When should teams go for it on fourth down? Why don't they go for it more?

And why don't they go for it when they should go for it. I'm Adedy Kinkabala, joined as always by my fabulous friend Mike Yam who would always go for it on fourth down right, always always go time. The biggest surprise would have been in that moment if Lamar said no, just punted away like Holmes take it over,

that would have been the biggest surprise there. But you know, kind of judging from the Hardball clip and some of the postgame interviews and the things that we've read about this game and heard about this game, at times, you might actually say to yourself as a sports fan, like, there's no real formula situations like this, like you shoot from the hip, you go with your gut. But on the contrary, there are so many different ways to analyze all of this, and the analytics boom is a big

reason for that. You always see the guys that have the sheets that looks sort of like play sheets, like there is just math that is on there for a lot of code just decide whether or not they want to go forward or not. We're not going to overdo it with the numbers and the formulas. But there is a reason why d D Some teams now have multiple not just one or two, but more than a few

analytics experts on their payroll. So in this episode, we're gonna give a little bit historical context on the fourth downs will analyze a couple of real life situations from this season to see if the coach has actually made the right call, and we'll dive into the psychology behind all of this. D D. Because you've talked to some analytics experts, there really is a psychology behind a lot

of these decisions. Oh a ton, because the math and the statistical models and the historical trends can absolutely tell you something, but there are so many variables, whether it's the weather, whether it's your center is healthy or not, how your team is doing, what the momentum is, if your head coach is a gutsy guy or afraid of

what reporters might say to him after a game. But let me tell you this, we've probably have been talking about when to go for it, when not to go for it, what is the math, what's not, what's your gut feel, all of that for a dozen years now, at least in my memory. I'm going back to two thousand and nine. It was a Colts Patriots game. The Colts were eight no. New England was six and two. Tom Brady was coming off of that. I R season,

and there were two minutes left in the game. Bill Belichick and the Patriots faced a fourth and two on their own twenty eight, and Bill Belichick decided to go for it. Now. The Patriots didn't convert, and the Colts drove a very short field for a touchdown. They won the game, and Belichick was absolutely crushed for it afterwards. But what he probably did was look at his defense and he figured, you know what, we're not going to stop Manning anyway. We're not gonna stop him if he

starts on his own twenty. We're not going to stop him if he's on our twenty. So here we go because the Colts at that point where ain't no Brady had been good a against the Colts, but he was coming off of I R. And you know there were rivals and at some point, Mike, what does Sperceians like to say, no risk it, no biscuit? Is it feast or famine? Like at some point you just have to, you know, take a chance. And that's exactly what Bill Belichick said that he thought it was his best chance

to win. His words, where I thought we needed to make that one play and then we could run out the clock. The trouble was is that the Patriots didn't get those two yards, and so the traditional media crushed Belichick for it. But the very next day, Mike Brian Burke, who is a big analytics expert at the time, wrote an article in the New York Times and he said, no, no, no, no, no. Actually, all the statistical models, all the historical trends, all the

numbers say that Bill Belichick was actually right. And that's where all the data guys and ps. The fans who love seeing the offenses stay on the field rejoiced ya, Nerd Nation, loving every single moment of that decision. But there are a lot of variables that DD. You made reference to it, where you are on the field, the weather, the whole thing. When it comes down to making a decision whether or not to go for it on fourth down, game personnel, there there's a lot at stake and a

lot behind some of those decisions. In fact, the DD the last four seasons have seen the highest percentages since and furthermore, teams have actually gone for more in successive seasons each year for the past nine years. So basically, the numbers are telling a field story of what we're all witnessing. I think most of us say, hey, people are going forward, Teams are going for more on fourth down. Well,

the numbers are actually supporting it. And if we're talking about strictly fourth and one at the time of this taping, which is essentially basically the halfway point of season, teams are going forward a d D seventy point one percent of the time. And again it's increased every single year since twelve, when teams went for it on fourth and one only thirty five point three percent at a time. I know I'm throwing a lot of numbers at everyone here,

but just think about this for one second. Teams are going for it twice as much on fourth and one as they did nine years ago. From a statistical standpoint, that is just absolutely staggering. Now, the biggest question is are those attempts actually successful. Well, the conversion rate on fourth and one up to this point in season sixty four point six percent at the time a d D. Those numbers, that's the reason why teams are going for it on fourth and one a whole lot more than

they have in the past. Looking at the data from the start of if you move that yardage back, Mike from one yard to three yards, that conversion rate does drop twenty percentage points to forty five point one, So perhaps it's a little bit dicey, but again, forty five point one percent chance of success, it's not like you're looking at a five percent chance of success. And it's going back to those psychological factors. How are you doing, what is your line look like, what is your play calling,

what do you have behind what you're doing. But let me tell you this, from the start of the conversion rate on fourth down from fourth and anywhere one to three yards was sixty one seven For fourth and anywhere from four to five yards was forty five point three percent. So when you take those same distances on third down, the percentages of sixty two and forty five are almost exactly the same. So if you feel good on third down, then you're not increasing or decreasing your opportunity on fourth

down right there. And again this comes back to the idea of do you want to keep your offense on the field. If you have let's say a dozen offensive possessions a game, then you're kind of potentially gaining an extra one if you're believing in your offense on fourth down. Yeah, four down territory, no matter where you are on the field,

no matter what the clock says. It's kind of cool from an offensive standpoint, but it's interesting because it does I think beg this, this question and this vibe around fourth down maybe adding more pressure to an offense. But I don't know if that's necessarily the case. You know, a d when when we've been doing this podcast, you are quick to to throw out the question. So I got one for you now. The most unstoppable play in

the history of the NFL is what. Oh? I know this because I screamed for it constantly, especially when I'm at Pittsburgh Steeler games. It is the quarterback sneak. To me, the quarterback sneak is the most underused play in the NFL, and Tom Brady is I believe Mike the most successful at this. Do you know that he has converted more than nine of his quarterback sneaks for first downs? It

is wild to me. Although you've brought up the Steelers and quarterbacks like in your Big ben'size, like, I can understand a dB why you want to see him all the time, Because Mike Tomlin forever did not want his quarterback doing a quarterback sneak, and Ben Roethlisberger is six ft five, I mean, if you need a yard fall forward, and for the majority of Ben Roethlisberger's career he played behind an all Pro center in Marquis Pouncey, who could

push anybody out of the way. Can you tell how passionate I get about this And this is me in a press box where you have to be quiet and not yell, oh my goodness, where is the quarterback sneak? But it doesn't always work, because earlier this year there was a very very key Bills game when Sean McDermott, Bill's head coach, Sean McDermott did indeed go for the

fourth Town, which was absolutely the correct call. But Josh Allen, who I also have a tremendous amount of appreciation for as a quarterback and who also has a tremendous amount of size to him, could not convert that fourth Town quarterback sneak book, It's not a dent at a time Brady has done it better than anyone else, and it's I D point three. I don't think anyone will ever look at the Tom Brady sneak again the same exact way after listening to this podcast for what it's worth

add you asked me what unstoppable play. I would have said, God's play. Let's run a little power here, and that would have been effective. But the sneak from the number standpoint, that's what it comes down to. But just fascinated by the fact that he has had that much success holding on to the football and leaning forward. But when we come back in DED, we're gonna actually look at some high profile situations from this season and see if the

coaches actually made the right call. Will also dive into the psychology behind the decision making as well. She's a d king Kabalan, I'm Mike. Yeah, it's NFL explained. Build the team that will build your business. With upwork, you can find top developers, designers, project managers and more who can start today so your business can succeed tomorrow higher at home or in a hundred and eighty countries around the world. To find the right talent for whatever your

business needs. Up Work the world's work market place. Learn more at www. Dot up work dot com. America's most reliable network is going ultra with Verizon five G Ultra wide band and more and more places, so you can do more without the ten times faster speeds. You can download a movie in mirror minutes. What yes, that's faster than your morning coffee run lights camera coffee. And while you're at it, go on and download a whole series in minutes, or a new song in seconds A one

A two A one to Oh it's done. Stock up on all that entertainment. And sure you can download work files faster too if you have to, so you can quickly get back to all these great movies, shows and songs you've just gotten your hands on. Verizon five G Ultra wide band is now in more and more places. Verizon is going Ultra so you can to five G

Ultra wide band available in select areas. Most reliable based on rankings from the Root Metrics US Roots Score report dated first half one, excluding C band and not specific to five G networks. Your results may vary. Not an endorsement speed comparison to Media and Verizon four G LTE speeds downloads very based on network conditions and five G content optimization. Back here on NFL explained She's a D D kin Kabala, Mike yam with you and don't forget we love to hear from you guys. You can use

the hashtag NFL Explain. You can find us on Twitter at Mike Underscore, yam at a Kinka Walla a d D. I keep getting some questions from some of our listeners. I know we're going to do a mail bag edition of this podcast, and I know you're getting some of these questions as well. So happy to compile as many as we can get. And we love hearing from a lot of our listeners. It's been awesome to kind of interact with a lot of you folks and continue to

spread the show. But we do want to get back to fourth down and more specifically the fourth down that we highlighted a d D at the top of the show. With Lamar Jackson and the Ravens leading the Chiefs by one point with just over a minute ago on their own forty three yard line. John Harbor might have been on the fence maybe about whether or not he should go for it on him Yeah, I know with you,

but he did ask his quarterback for advice. And if he had at the time or at least had the time to consult next Gens stats, how convenue that would have been, they would have come up with the decision to go for it, and it would have been pretty easy because going for it in that scenario yielded a win probability of eighty two percent, while punting would have made it a fifty eight percent win probability, so still better than half odds. But I'll take at two fifty

eight any day of the week. So the answer right now seems pretty clear. You go for it. Jackson ran for the first down, Ravens got the win. But according to the data, it really shouldn't have even been that much of a question because the decision to go for it increase that win probability a d D by twenty four percent, and win probability for going for it accounted for the fact that the distance to a first down was one point one yards in that situation versus the

Chiefs defense. Now, the Ravens had a seventy five percent chance of gaining enough yardage to confer dude, it's Lamar Jackson. Yeah, point one yards. They definitely had enough to gain that yard is just with his legs. But when probability for a punt decision was so low because of the fact to put the ball into Patrick Mahomes hands, yeah, he's pretty good. We can just punt on this whole idea of like interceptions and some of the issues they've had

this year. Generally speaking, mahomes is money and we all know that. So you can go down a list of the specific variables for any decision tom remaining on the clock. You've got timeouts, fuel position, offense, and defensive personnel. You have the efficiencies for both offense and defense. Add there's a lot to wrap your head around, and the numbers

once again sort of give you the answer. Well, and that's where the gray area comes in is when you think about those variables because the statistical models and the historical data don't necessarily account for every single one of those things. But again, the point here is that it is almost always smarter to go for it. Let's take another instance from a high profile game this year. Tom Brady's returned to Fox Borrow. It's his old team, the Patriots.

Now this one was a bit more difficult, but there was indeed a clear optimal choice. With fifty nine seconds remaining, the Patriots are down by two. They're on Tampa's thirty eight yard line. It's fourth and four. Now, essentially New England is facing a fifty six yard field goal, or they're going forward on fourth and four to try to get their kicker Nick Fole closer. The Patriots decided to go for the field goal. Folk misses. But did Bill

Belichick make the right call there? According to Next Gen Stats, the play Mike was go for it. Let of course, exactly going for it would have yielded a nearly thirty five percent chance of winning versus us to twenty four percent chance by attempting that fifty six yard field goal, So going for it gave you a ten percent better chance of the outcome you wanted, which is a win.

So when probability took into account the forty percent chance of Folk making that fifty six yard field goal in this situation, the rainy conditions, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, in the moment, so variables, variables, variables, variables, gut and the head coach ultimately gets the call and fifty six that's not a gimme either, So the variables once again, the weather for fault, the amount of time that would leave Brady of Folk

actually made the kick. No model is perfect. I want to reiterate that point because everyone says oh, you've got all these numbers, and when you're wrong, it's easy to focus in on some of that stuff. What the models do is help you make better decisions, more informed decisions. There is a psychological aspect for a coach who's deciding, you know what, I'm going to roll the dice, we're gonna go for it on this fourth down, or we're going to kick the field goal, and I'm going to

be the one that takes some of the backlash. And good example of this, Bankle's head coach Jack Taylor was actually asked about fourth downs this year and he said the following, there's gonna be times it doesn't go our way and you're gonna have to deal with the blowback. That's part of coaching. I'm comfortable with that. It's because I know that the times you do do it successfully and you go for it, those moms just get swept

under the rug. To me add and you've been around a lot of these coaches as a pie, the psychological effect of are my decisions going to be second guest is a factor and that's why leaning on the numbers, when it's just raw data, actually I think can help a lot of coaches you know what. And it's not just that, Mike, it's also what is the final result and how do you frame that? So at the margin, when you are more aggressive, you are more likely to win.

But the downside to being aggressive is that you may have more blowout losses. And I actually talked to one of my friends who is one of the premier analytic experts in this entire field. He has worked in both baseball and football, so he's got some great contacts which I will share later. But if you go for it and you are not successful, you are more likely to lose badly than just lose. And how do you handle that? And let's use the Chargers. You're talking about Zach Taylor.

He is one of the young coaches in the NFL. Another young coach in the NFL who's been very aggressive is Brandon Staley out with the Chargers. If we go back to earlier this year, Chargers don't beat the Browns if they're not aggressive and they're not going for it

on fourth down, so that's a win. But then the Chargers play the Ravens, they do go for it on fourth down, they don't convert a couple of times, and it's probably a closer game against the Ravens as opposed to this whopping blowout had they not gone for it on fourth down again, feast or famine, no risk it, no biscuit. And so are you okay with the idea of what looks like an ugly loss? If you believe in your team that much, they you're maybe not facing

that ugly loss. And I don't know if that makes sense, but think about it this way, Mike. It's like the quarterback at the end of a half who's willing to throw a hail Mary. Maybe it's all right. So some quarterbacks are like, well, I don't care. I'm going to give it a shot. And there are other quarterbacks that are like, yeah, but there's a really good shot that this ball gets picked off and I don't want that on my stat line. So do you worry about the ugliness of a blowout loss or do you say I

don't care. All we care about right now are ws and we need to do everything we can to get a w Risk adverse is what some of those quarterbacks maybe are in some of those situations. What the numbers don't indicate as well. Adity is what it means, and the magnitude. How do you measure the confidence that your coach has when your team goes for it on fourth down and is able to convert and then you win that football game. How does that momentum change a locker room?

That's something that next gen stats can't cook up formula four. Although I'm sure there's a data scientist right now who says, no, no, no, I got you on that one. I'll figure that one out. No, But that's actually a very very fair point. This is

that idea of success begets success. A few years ago, when the NFL moved the p A T line back, Mike Tomlin all of a sudden kept going for the two point conversion as opposed to kicking the p A T. And I remember, I have a very good friend, he's still my friend, Ken Carmen, who is a radio host in Cleveland, and at one point during one game he messaged me and he said, why does Tomlin keep going

for it? And my response was because he can. And the issue was, you know, like, let's say when you move the p T back, maybe the success rate drops from to and maybe your two point conversion success rate is fift. The big point in all of this as opposed to doing some fancy math formula. Is that the Steelers were actually really good at it, and so because they were successful early on at converting those two point plays,

Mike Tomlin just stuck with it. You go back to a year ago, the Steelers almost never went for it on fourth and one, even though the models, the mathematical models, that statistical model kept saying go for it, because they couldn't convert. The Dealers were terrible on third and one, and they were terrible on fourth and one. So who cares what the math says at that point? And that's once again that human judgment that's hard for just artificial

intelligence to come up with a solution for. This podcast is sponsored by Kindrel. Kindrel Designs builds, manages, and modernizes the mission critical technology systems that the world depends on every day. Working side by side with their customers, they imagine things differently. By forging new strategic partnerships, they unlock new possibilities, creating a world powered by healthy digital systems. Align with opportunity, oxygen to innovation and energy to change

the world. Kindrel the Heart of Progress. This podcast is sponsored by Kendrell. Kindrell Designs builds, manages, and modernizes the mission critical technology systems that the world depends on every day. Working side by side with their customers, they imagine things differently. By forging new strategic partnerships, they unlock new possibilities, creating a world powered by healthy digital systems, alive with opportunity, oxygen to innovation, and energy to change the world. Schindrel

the heart of progress. And I will tell you this to Mike that every single analyst that I have spoken to, you know, analysts are more aggressive than head coaches are. And that's because they look at the math, they look at the data, they look at historical trends, what's generally happened head coaches. Some of it, I think is a lack of understanding of the math and the percentages, and hey, is somebody who's not great at math. The percentages can sometimes make my eyes roll in the back of my

head as well. I think a lot of it also is wanting to do things the way that things have always been done and so what's familiar to you, especially if you've been a coach for a long time in the NFL, that might be part of it. And I think that the impact of what you see around you, you know, like you were talking earlier Mike about how we've seen the numbers increase every year team is being more aggressive. I go back to that Philadelphia Eagles super

Bowl win. Philly really was very effective in being aggressive and going forward on fourth down, and at least for me anecdotally speaking, I think that that sort of represents kind of a change in play. Look, I think you can even go back to Billy being with you know, moneyball in the Oakland, a sort of sending the table for organizations to embrace it, because I think the observation that you just came up with, which is we've always done it this way, is the easy thing to fall

back on. And I think once one or two coaches, slash teams organizations have success doing it a different way, then everyone wants to get onto that train and roll with it. And I think from an analytic standpoint, people now are following suit. Yeah, but you know, I do want to bring up a point that my friend said, my buddy said to me, since you're mentioning Billy Bean, that I think is really tremendous as related to the NFL.

You know, the influence of analytics on baseball, Like, let's say the shift in general has maybe esthetically made baseball a tad less pleasing. You know, they're more hits, they're more walks, there's more home runs, but again because the shift, there's not as many hits. But look at football, the influence of analytics, the idea of going for it has actually made the football games better. You've got crowd cheering

for it, you have fans yelling go for it. You have this excitement of sort of taking on a risk, being aggressive the offense, staying on the field. All of that I think has actually you know, these are sort of high leverage plays. They make the game more fun and more interesting. So for football, it's really worked. It's a great call, especially when you think about watching game shows on television and the contestants already got you know,

a decent amount of winnings. Exactly, we're all saying no, like, let it ride, let it ride. Let's try to, you know, try to. You know, there's a fun aspect to and I think in these fourth down situations there's something to be said for uh A D D. One other thing I want to bring up to you, and I know

there's no way to possibly answer this question. But as I'm listening to some of the things that you're saying from your your conversations with people around the league and data people, it also makes me wonder, from a human element standpoint, if we're playing backyard football and there was no media, press conferences when the game was done, There weren't millions of dollars on the line. There weren't you know, tens of thousands of fans you know, in the stadium,

millions more just watching all of these games. If that would change the decision making process and you weren't just if you were a coach of a backyard football team. I get we didn't have coaches playing in the backyard, but roll with me here, do you change your philosophy and some of those moments, because it does bring you back to just being a kid and just trying to figure out the best way to win without any of the other variables that come with being on the sidelines

inside an NFL stadium. Do you have an offensive line in your backyard? Because honestly, I think that that's the biggest predictor of success right there. Do you believe in your line? But again, I'm an old school football person, who believes that everything starts up front. Can your line get and yeah enough to go for it? I think that NFL coaches largely. I mean, gosh, I'm running through thirty two names right now, and who I personally know and who not. I don't think that media scrutiny or

fans scrutiny is really the driver right there. I think it has a lot more to do. You know, like how do you play poker? And it's how much faith do you have in your team? And are you moving the ball right now or not? And I brought this up earlier because again, I was at this insane Steelers Lions tip over time tie game in the freezing rain, and there were two situations where I thought the Lions absolutely shouldn't go for it, and they didn't. But I mean,

neither quarterback was really moving the ball. They were very bad conditions. I mean, anybody could sit here and say, Okay, everything shades towards punting as opposed to going for it. I just think a lot of it has to do with what your nature is, and you know, what are you willing to risk? How much do you believe in your team? What are you seeing so far? And like you said, you know, what do your players want to do if you believe in giving your players ownership over

those decisions? Add I'm with you. I know it's the point that we brought up earlier. But what those fourth down those successful fourth down conversions? What does that due to your sideline? What does it due to your locker room? Hard for the metrics to really gauge some of that stuff. But you mentioned Brandon Staley, Um, he's on this list the top five guys in the NFL optimal fourth down

decision percentages. Uh, and the guys who have done at the best Kevin Stevansky number one, twelve out of thirteen. I will take that, Brandon Staley number two out of fourteen, good for seventy one percent. Mc fangio with the Broncos number three, five out of seven, Cliff Kingsbury four out of six, and Mike McCarthy rounding at the top five eleven for eighteen in those situations. But which coach do you wish went for maybe on fourth down as your coach?

We'd love to hear from you. Use that hashtag NFL explained a d D. It was awesome doing this. I actually love this show because I can, you know, dork out on the numbers a little bit, but I think the point that you brought up a few minutes ago is the best one of the entire show. Going forward and fourth down helps the excitement and I think helps the game of football. I cannot agree more. It is always fun, Mike. I can't wait for next week. Like you said, we would love, love, love to hear from

all of you, so send us your burning questions. And for now, my friend Mike and all of our listeners, that is going for it on fourth down, explained, m America's most reliable network is going ultra with Verizon five G Ultra wide ban and more and more places with up to ten times faster speeds. You can download a movie in mere minutes. What Yes, Verizon is going ultra so you can too. Five G Ultra wide ban available

in select areas. Most reliable based on rankings from the Root Metrics US Roots Score report dated first half excluding c ban and not specific to five G networks. Your results may vary. Not an endorsement speed comparison to median Verizon four G LTE speeds downloads vary based on network conditions and five G content optimization brought to you by up work, where you can build the team that will build your business. Learn more at upwork dot com.