What Happened to Home-Field Advantage?

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and five G content optimization. Last season, due to the COVID pandemic, the NFL sadly placed to mostly empty stadiums and of course the occasional cardboard cutoffs. So what did that do to home field advantage. Interestingly enough, it was the first season in NFL history that saw home teams with a losing record granted by just one game, but still one hundred and twenty seven wins, one hundred and

twenty eight losses and one tie. And to such agree it kind of makes sense, right with no twelve man bills, Mafia or the dog pounds squeezing every last ounce of juice out of the home team wears the advantage. It turns out that this year, with fans back in the stands, we've also seen the second lowest home win percentage in league history. Through sixteen weeks, it's sitting at exactly fifty

point six percent. In fact, the last three seasons have seen three of the four lowest home team win percentages since Night ten seventy. But now even in two thousand nineteen, road teams had a higher point per game average than home teams for the first time since the NFL merger. The last four seasons have been the highest scoring seasons for road teams since the merger. Did you know what that means? If anyone goes back to one of our

previous episodes that defense wins championships? In that question, it's clearly all about the offense. But as pertains to this particular episode, I actually don't even know if I totally buy some of the numbers, which once again is sort of crazy for me to say, because I think about Fireman ed, I think about the terrible towels that are always kind of swirling in your neck of the woods in Pittsburgh, like that has to have some sort of impact.

But as we dig through some of the numbers, I don't know if the answer is totally yes to that well, and there may be some teams, Mike, that are skewing the numbers. But see, that's why it's so important that here on NFL Explained we get to the bottom of why some might have a home field advantage and if this advantage might be fading or not. I'm a d d KI kapella, joined as always by my buddy Mike. Yeah,

I'm looking forward to this one. I'm wondering if the debate is going to rage because I would imagine the two of us are probably on the same side of this. That home field advantage is meaningful. Like I think about it from a Vegas perspective, I think about it from just Win percentages and typically in my mind, all the players and coaches that I've ever talked to, Hey, winning on the road is not an easy thing. Well, let me tell you, I am going to come at this

like a real reporter with an open mind. Let's see where the numbers and the anecdotes and the history takes us. We're going to challenge some long held beliefs on the topic of home field advantage. Of course, we'll see what matters what doesn't. We'll find out why there might actually be, Mike, some medical science behind the importance of being at home. Love the science angle behind all of a stufs, But actually, let's take a look at one big piece that fuels

the public perception of home field advantage. And I made reference to it, and it's the betting aspect. For years, sports books felt that simply playing on your home field would add about a two to three point bump in

the spread. And just to explain for people who aren't necessarily deep diving into the betting world just yet, or maybe they're just playing fantasy, the whole point is a team that may have been a three point favorite on the road would actually go up to a six point favorite at home, and a team that was a two point underdog on the road would become a slight favorite at home. Now, for some sports books, they still hold

fast that that two to three point rule. But in with no crowds and just those cardboard cutouts that a DD you love so much, Vegas saw its lowest advantage ever for home teams at one point zero six per game. Now most agree that that advantage is a little kind of on the downside. Here, it seems like from a Vegas perspective, a DD that two to three point number

is a little bit more in question nowadays. Well, and it's true because the average home win percentage from nineteen seventy to nine, Mike was fifty seven point nine percent, but since two thousand it's only fifty six point three percent. Will certainly take some guesses as to why teams aren't as dominant at home right now as they used to be, But home field advantage still does exist, even if it's declining or shrinking. So let's first start by looking at

some of the reasons why it exists. Obvious number one travel, Say, for instance, Mike, when a West Coast team plays on the East Coast in prime time, maybe their bodies are at their most efficient from between four thirty to seven thirty Eastern, So that's a sweet spot for West Coast teams in prime time, whereas maybe the body clock of a player on the East Coast has already started to shut down. On the converse, the West Coast team going to play at one pm. On the East Coast, well

it's ten am. That's the time when you're supposed to be eating your waffles, right. So since two thousand West Coast teams are indeed thirty and nineteen in home prime time games, East Coast teams are just eleven and eighteen versus their Pacific time zone counterparts over that same span. It makes sense. Add because generally speaking, that four thirty to seven thirty Eastern time, like, I would understand why

players would thrive in some of those moments. But if I asked you, are you a morning person or a night owl? Like, everyone is a little different, but the numbers do bear out, I guess generally speaking, that does make sense. And I mean, look, Mike, every single player I've ever spoken to says that he hates playing nighttime games because it's just the idea of having to wait all day whereas the one o'clock your body is in

a really good routine. This is when I wake up, this is when I eat, this is when I do what I do as opposed to sitting around and waiting. And as a reporter, I don't really like those primetime

games either. Let's just get it on. Yeah, I don't know if we're going to get to it in this episode, but can you imagine if there was a way to measure if it's a primetime game and they're just waiting around, and what that actual element does for production later in the day, Because clearly I've had those same conversations with players that they don't like playing late. So it's just

one of those other looming factors. But crowd noise, obviously is another thing that I think people always refer to. You know, Pacific West Coast teams, for example, there's one in particular that's known for having that earth shattering noise because of its fans. But how much does that noise and what the fans are doing actually matter? Not surprising here, the Seahawks and the Chiefs, the two loudest stadiums in the NFL, both win significantly more games at home than

on the road. In team history, Casey's winning percentage is nearly seventeen percent higher at home than on the road, while Seattle's home versus away winning percentage eighteen points six percent greater. That's wild to me. The three teams with the least influential home field advantage been the Panthers, the Giants, a DV I know you, and I are like what, and surprisingly, how about this Saints. All three see less than a ten percent bump in terms of better winning

percentage on their home turf. Once again, the number staggering to me. The Saints obviously the big surprise, just considering the success that they've had, the fact that they're playing also in the Dome, you would think some of that stuff would actually help. Well, you know, Mike, it's so interesting that you say that, because I think a lot of this really has to do with trends and how

good your team is. And so when you look at who really is actually the best right now entering this season in terms of a differential between a home win percentage and a road win percentage, Number one is the Ravens. They went at home scent of the time they went on the road forty three point five percent of the time. But the Ravens have been a really good competitive team for a long time, and so those are both good numbers. Essentially. Number two is the Broncos that have a twenty point

three percent differential. Well, everybody who plays in Denver, and you and I have talked about this on previous episodes talks about how difficult the AULTO two could be. But then you look at number three, that's the Bengals that have a nearly twenty percent differential. Well, on the at home they only win fifty four percent of the time and on the road they win thirty four percent at the time. So some of it, again is those numbers

are a little bit closer together. You see the Steelers in the top half, well, the Steelers have been a good team. You see the Packers in the top half, Well, the Packers have been a really good team. You go to the bottom of the list, well, the Jets, they haven't been particularly good. The Panthers, they've struggled a bit as of late. The Browns, sure they have as well. So I can't really tell if a big differential is a great statement or not, because in theory, you don't

want a huge differential. You want a team that's really consistent, right Mike, Like you say, this is a good team, it has the chance to win on the road to some great success. But then you look at teams that win at home more than any place else. I mean the Ravens number. Forget their differential, the fact that the Ravens win at home sixty sent of the time. I'll tell you I spend a ton of time in Baltimore.

There are great, great, great fans there, but there's also great food in that stadium, and I think there's something to be said for familiar confines. Well, I think on top of that, like you mentioned Baltimore, and you're right, generally speaking, you just want to win games, whether it's home or away. I do think once again, from a psychological effect, as you start thinking about matchups and opponents.

We do this all the time on NFL Network, right like or even just as a fan, you do the win lost thing as you look at a team schedule, and when a team is playing at home and you know there's such a juggernaut like the Ravens, you tend to give them the W before they play that game versus the L. So, once again, a little bit of a factor there, and I think one of the other teams each brought up there, and you mentioned Green Bay leads to another aspect, and indeed it sounds like you

want to say something else. Well, I was just gonna go back, Mike to the Ravens. One other point that actually I can't even take credit for this is our fabulous producer Zach mentioned it. The Ravens historically forever are

known for what how good their defense is. And so when you were talking earlier about crowd noise, like at a place like Seattle or an Arrowhead stadium, or certainly in Baltimore, the noise helps the home defense because the noise forces the offense to have communication issues, perhaps have to go to a silent count, all of those things. If you historically have a great defense, then that home field noise has to certainly help you. Let me think

about it. It's like in Hines Field when they play renegade, they don't play that when the offense is on the field. They play that when the defenses on the field. Players are motioning for noise, not when the offense is on the field, but when the defense is on the field, and when you already have a dominant defense. It sort of plays into this idea of the crowd noise helping

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A two, A one to Oh it's done. Stock up on all that entertainment, and sure you can download work files faster too if you have to, so you can quickly get back to all these great movies, shows and songs you've just gotten your hands on. Verizon five G Ultra wide Band is now in more and more places, Verizon is going Ultra, so you can to five G

Ultra wide band available in select areas. Most reliable based on rankings from the Root Metrics US ROOTS Score report dated first half one, excluding C band and not specific to five G networks. Your results may vary. Not an endorsement speed comparison to Media and Verizon four G LTE speeds, downloads very based on network conditions and five G content optimization. Welcome back to NFL explaining Mike yam Ataddi kinkawaala with you, and we've started to piece together the reasons why teams

might see a home field advantage. Crowd noise one factor. I think there's another one that people automatically just enjoy watching when they're at home. There's nothing cooler than you know, players in cold weather you see sort of like the smoke and the steam coming off of their heads and their helmets as soon as they take them off. For guys that are just bundled up, and you know, when there's the snow on the field, I'm not gonna lie. Sometimes I get a little more entertained, a little more

juice from that perspective. As someone who's been on the field when there is snow. Not that much fun. Mike, Yeah, no, I I get it. That's you be a studio guy and do not have to necessarily worry about that type of stuff. So temperature controlled environment. I like the consistency, but whether to me add and you know it because you've braved the elements just reporting on a lot of these games. That's a factor. And I know that those conversations come up with players and coaches. Okay, so Mike,

we talk about this a lot. The a f C North is my wheelhouse. I basically spend every Sunday this time of year freezing every way possible. I burned myself with handwarmers the other day, actually patching them on my body everywhere. But in any case, that's a story for another day. It's no secret that as much as I may dislike the cold weather, it can indeed be incredibly helpful for the teams that regularly play in cold weather.

It helps for people who are acclimated to it, like fabulous kickers like our friend Justin Tucker, who was on in one of our earlier episodes, of course, and who has set the record for the longest field goal in NFL history. He's constantly playing in these cold climates and swirling winds, and he talks about how that has hardened him or improved his ability to continue to do so. So you have players like that at all sorts of positions that are used to that. So let me give

you this. Since nineteen seventy, home teams playing outdoors when the temperature was fifteen or below at kickoff have one six d seven per cent of the games. If it's at or below freezing, the home team wins sixty two point five percent of the time. And if the temperature is actually above thirty two degrees, well, then home teams win at fifty seven point three percent, which is the general range for home field advantage. So let's go to this.

How about this The Ravens, the Patriots, the Steelers, and the Packers, four teams that play in four of the coldest places that we have. Basically, I mean, obviously Buffalo Cleveland have something to say about that. But these are definitely four teams that very regularly play in sub forty degree temperature. All four of them gain is significant advantage when the weather is below forty degrees. Listen to this, Since two thousand. The Ravens have won eighty five point

seven percent of their games in sub forty temperatures. The Patriots have won eighties seven point eight percent of their games in sub forty temperatures. The Steelers the Steelers seventy eight point two percent, the Packers seventy eight point five. I mean that that's really significant, Mike, It's huge. I mean, just think about what it's like when you are used to warm weather and you go to a cold environment,

like that's tough. I remember my first time because I grew up in the Northeast, and my first time in northern California and San Francisco. My first winter, I am laughing at everyone on the streets bundled up in winter coats. I'm wearing a hoodie and I'm thinking it's not even because it's not that cold. Second winter in San Francisco, I was just like everyone else. And by the way, I was doing it in the summertime, because it actually

gets kind of cold in SF during the summer. But the point is your body, I think, just adjust and then all of a sudden, Yaska team that's not necessarily used to those, you know, sub forty temperatures that you know fans in Baltimore and the Ravens are used to where the Patriots are used to, or any of those environments that you just made reference to. And it's a little bit of a problem. But earlier adity in the podcast, you made reference to the the massive advantage that the

Broncos had. They were right behind the Ravens in terms of winning at home. You and I initially speculated, Hey, it's altitude. That's a problem. If anyone's trying to run in Denver, that's not the easiest thing if you're not used to running an elevation. But the Broncos and that home versus wage disparity, you actually see something of pretty interesting here. We're all aware Denver not only plays during the cold winter months, but they also play at that

elevation that's really high. The combination of the altitude and the weather actually affects teams more in the summer and fall months or the earlier parts of the schedule. Check this out. Between ninety eight and the Broncos won a staggering seventy nine percent of its games in September at home.

Over that four decades span, there were forty three and twelve that's seventy eight percent in home games over seventy degrees, But when just sixty two of the games when the temperature is under forty five degrees, that's definitely something that I think a lot of us are a little surprised about when we were going through some of those numbers.

Once again, the cold and the altitude seemingly less effective than just the summer and fall months with some of those altitude numbers that the players are having to deal with. But Adity, you set the table real nice at the start of this episode. When we come back on NFL Explain, we'll talk about the all important human element with regard to this topic. Is there a way to chemically explain

why teams might have a home field advantage? We got the answers to those questions coming up next on NFL Explain. This podcast is sponsored by Kindrel. Kindrel Designs builds, manages, and modernizes the mission critical technology systems that the world depends on every day. Working side by side with their customers,

they imagine things differently. By forging new strategic partnerships, they unlock new possibilities, creating a world powered by healthy digital systems alive with opportunity, oxygen to innovation and energy to change the world. Kindrel the Heart of Progress. This podcast is sponsored by Kendrell. Kendrell Designs, builds, manages, and modernizes the mission critical technology systems that the world depends on every day. Working side by side with their customers, they

imagine things differently. By forging new strategic partnerships, they unlock new possibilities, creating a world powered by healthy digital systems, alive with opportunity, oxygen to innovation and energy to change the world. Kendrell The Heart of Progress. Welcome back to NFL explained Mike, Amita dd kin kabwahla with you? And what about the one person that's almost securedly getting booed by the home team during the game. Indeed, you know

what I'm talking about. It's the officials NFL refs. We know they do an extraordinary job trying to police what is an incredibly intense, fast moving game and doing it live. Mike, Let's not forget that piece, right, Everybody at home has the benefit of these high definite camera feeds, and these

guys have to do it in a split second. So let me say that all right, now that I cut you off, keep going, no slow motion replay, they don't have that advantage in well, everyone's got their biases and they, of course succumb to a little bit of peer pressure from the masses. Doesn't that make a little bit of sense here? So what does the data say? Let's start

with the staff. Once the NFL instituted instant replay, home team winning percentages dropped from fifty eight point five percent to fifty six percent, So perhaps it acted like a little bit of an alf on the shelf. For the rest, it does make sense to me that that would have happened with instant replay. Since nine seventy, road teams have accounted for fifty one point four of all penalties, so a slightly higher rate that has stayed relatively consistent in

each decade. That adds up to the road teams being penalized for thirty thousand, eight hundred and sixty one yards more than home teams, or just about the amount of yards that Ryan Tannehill is actually thrown in his career.

But when we look at the delay of game, road teams have a haunted for fifty seven point five percent of all those penalties since two thousand one, so either it's relatively a subjectivity issue on that particular call, or maybe my guy fireman D actually has that the noise that's rocking, that's actually becoming a factor in the games.

But a d D. Once again, you look at the refs and the amount of screaming that's happening towards those guys, I'm not surprised that maybe there's a little bit of home cooking and the home team gets a little bit of love. I will say this, I think that the delay of game at fifty seven point five percent, that's interesting, but just fifty one point four percent on all penalties

that differential for road teams versus home teams. That almost feels like the margin of error to me, well two and a half percent from a home team to the road team overall, since since the replay to me, does scream to that. And by the way, I'm not suggesting that the referees are doing it intentionally. I think that there is a subconscious factor there. I've talked to enough coaches in multiple sports will all say this same thing.

They always feel like it's harder to get some of those calls when they're on the road and easier at home. And I just think when you have fans, and it look depends on the sport, I guess, but when you have fans in that noise, I think there's a little bit of a factor that's there. All right, Michael, moving on from the officials, how about we talk about something else that maybe is a little bit more black and white,

and that is the visiting locker room. I will tell you, as someone who has been in many, many, many locker rooms, and who of course mrs being in locker rooms because of the COVID pandemic and can't wait to get back, the visiting locker room is always basically the size of a thimble. Sometimes really wonder how you get every single body in there, and even in brand new six billion

dollars so Fi Stadium. Mike Zimmer, one of my favorite curmudgeon coaches, the Vikings head coach, called the visitors locker room a mess and was because he couldn't get his bull team in to have a meeting. Jared Allen once called the visiting locker room at Arrowhead Stadium trash, and he said that it rivaled some high school gyms. In NFL, teams had to allow enough space for social distancing in locker rooms, but that requirement was dropped in one and

so teams got to go back to their gamesmanship. I'm with you there, d I'm actually not surprised by any of this, especially given what happened between a couple of rivals in the NFC East Washington and Dallas. Recently. Cowboys played at Washington on December twelve, and the team actually heard from the Seahawks. Gotta love this that the visiting seat warmers at FedEx Field were quote unreliable, so they

had to have their own shipped in from Ohio. And of course the branding is important, so the Cowboy logos were all over it. But not to be outdone, the football team actually brought its own benches to a T and T stadium where they played at Dallas two weeks later. I know what you're wondering. Yeah, indoors Washington, they did all of it. It's temperature controlled in that environment, and they got beat fifty six to fourteen. I didn't know. Adity.

We have laid out a lot of the reasons why home field advantage can exist for some teams, Is there one other factor that maybe we didn't get to because for me, I think there's one thing that does sort of stand out to me, and it's the amount of metrics that we can now measure for individuals, whether it is the nutrition and how you're able to track their intake,

their food intake. You know, we're always wearing kind of our smart watches and understanding sort of like our top speeds when we're out on the field, or you know, how how much exertion you're actually emanating during practice or in a game. I don't know. I think monitoring some of this stuff also sort of levels potentially a playing field for some of the road teams as they hit

the road. Sure, that could be part of it, but I also think that so much of it is emotional and kind of individual and and I'll give you a perfect example and again go back to two a f C North teams. But this is just be because I just had this conversation with Bengal safety Von Bell last week and the Bengals were sitting at seven and four, and they had two consecutive home games and they lost them both, and I was like, why do you seem to play better on the road than you do at home?

And Von Bell says to me, I just love being on the road, said, I love shutting up a road crowd. I love that you know your family isn't there, You have nothing to focus on. You go to the hotel and you have the game, and that's it, and you're not worried about getting anybody tickets, and you're not worried about whether you have to pick your mom up at the airport, and all of that is gone. It's just

being on the road. So I can appreciate that. But then the flip side to that, Another guy that I cover extremely regularly, have covered for his whole career, who potentially could be Defensive Player of the Year this year, t J Watt Mike, he is significantly better at home than he is on the road. As of this moment right now, thirty nine home games, he has forty six sacks. Thirty six road game he's twenty one sacks, more than

double the sack number at home. And we've asked him repeatedly why what is it about hines Field, And his only answer is, I don't know. I just love hines Field. I love being home, And who knows? Is it those terrible towels, is it renegade? Is it the fact that you know, he gets to drive his own car, is opposed to going on a team bus. I don't know. But you know what, let me go back to that hotel thing really quickly, and I apologize about jumping around here.

All of our listeners may not know this. The home team also stays in a hotel the night before the game and also has to go through bed checks and also as somebody knocking on their door to make sure that they're curfew and that there's nobody in their room that's supposed to be in their room. But the differences when you are a road team, you get on the plane at you know, maybe one o'clock, you fly to where you're going, You go to the hotel, and you

have your meetings and that's it. When you are the home team, you might do your morning walk through and then you're free the whole afternoon, and then you might have an evening meeting and then you know, you might have an hour break and then you have to show up at the hotel. So yes, you do stay in a hotel at home, but it's not quite the same

sort of isolation as when you are at home. That's fair. Look, we're also knocking on the door a d D to the playoffs, which are right around the corner of the Yeah, like some of the stats that we've thrown out there, I'm curious, you know where we sit with home field advantage when the postseason comes around. Well, since nineteen seventy, Mike, home teams have had a sixty six point nine percent

win percentage in playoff games. Now, to be fair, it's usually the higher seeded team team that's the one that's playing at home, and so in theory are probably the better team. But home field has yielded a fifty nine point eight percent advantage in wild games where teams are allegedly ostensibly evenly matched. Still, that is one of those things where you know, the crowd and the home cooking and the familiarity and all of that could be coming

into play. Yeah. Yeah, It's just something that I think people should be mindful of as these postseasons, which should be epic, that are right around the corner, just to have that in the back of your mind as you're thinking about who potentially could have an advantage. One other thing that comes from the world of science of deity, which we found fascinating. There is a study done by Canadian researchers Oh Canada Handling Business for US, presented at

the International Congress of neuro Endo Chronology. Yes, that's actually a thing, really interesting finding regarding home field advantage. They followed not a football team because it's Canada, or I like, there's a hockey team because that's kind of what they do up there for an entire season. They tracked this hockey team swabbing the players saliva before and after games. No,

it wasn't a COVID test. This is something different. Testosterone levels higher before home games in addition to stress hormone cortisol. Researchers claimed that this points towards the primal instinct of defending one's territory. Come on, I love that. Well yeah, I mean, isn't that what they always say? We have to protect our home, protect our home. Football coaches say that all the time, players say that all the time.

It seems to make sense. I think that the stress court is the stress hormone cortisol being higher to is probably because there's a little bit more pressure to perform for your home fans. You definitely don't want your home fans doing you. And if you have family, then you're performing for your family as well, and there's something more immediate and having them present than just watching you on TV. No,

I'm with you. Would love to hear what you guys think as you continue to listen to these episodes, and we keep getting really good questions the d D and I am tracking them and compiling the list. I know we get some good feedback on the mail bag episodes, So if you have some questions, you can find us on Twitter at a King Kaballa at Mike Underscore yem. You can always use the hashtag NFL explained um A d D would also like to hear from some of our fans if I think home field advantage is an

actual thing once again, use the hashtag NFL. Not only that, but also who they think has the best home field advantage or what is the best home field environment? You know, because I will say, I'll go back to this, the Dog Pound in Cleveland. Those people are unbelievable. They're amazing. And last year when I was there when they beat the Steelers at the end of the season and clinched their first playoff burthen forever and there were people crying

in the stands. I mean, that's how move they were, but but it hasn't really helped the players for a long time prior to these last two seasons. Let's not talk about that, but you think about it. So that's a fan base that's tremendous, that's an environment that's amazing, but sadly, for a long time, the team that was

fielded wasn't really that great. And so you know, there is a little of a I don't want to call it a chicken and egg because it's not, but this is what sort of affects those numbers, which is what we said at the top. You know, the Steelers, they have an amazing environment, man, And just this week Mike Tomlin was talking about how much he loves Stealer Nation

and needs Steeler Nation Monday Night against the Browns. Sure, but part of Stealer Nation being what it is is because the Steelers have given them so much to cheer. Um with you. There a d D. And I think the main takeaway is that there's definitely been a decline in home field advantage, which we actually see sports books acting on most experts, they're atributing it to not only the improvements in sports science, but also travel for away teams.

It's actually a little easier for opposing fans to get to some of those away games as well, and it will be awesome to see how some of this stuff plays out in the postseason. Um. Once again, you can find us on social media. Continue to fire off those questions. Add always fun to go through some of these topics with you, always, always, and thank you all for listening.

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