Passer Rating

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and five G content optimization. We're all about the numbers today. Analytics have become one of the hot trends in sports. The NBA, of course, uses that metric called per player efficiency rating as an all encompassing way to measure a player's contributions on the floor. Soccer is a game with just seventeen rules, but they even have their own complex metrics like expected goals. There's baseball, which has war wins above replacement. They introduced that back in the seventies and

early eighties. But what about the O G metric? And I'm not talking about anything Ice Tea has done in his career, the one that was adopted in nineteen seventy three and is still mentioned every single Sunday during NFL broadcast. What's going on everyone, I'm like yam and as always joined by a d D. Kinka wala. Today a d D. We get to dive into a stat that has stood the test of time, passer rating. What is good A

D D? Well? I feel like this is a really good one because people throw around passer rating, Mike, But does everybody really know what passer rating is, or how it's calculated or what it even really tells us? And even though I tell you I try to avoid math, I feel like this is math that kind of is really important. Yes, agree, maybe sort of? Yeah, I'm with you, I'm with you, Okay, Gosh, that just sort of hung

there for a little while right there. All right, well, let's start with history, since you know, as a history major, that's my favorite topic to hit. In nineteen seventy three, it was the Hall of Fames Don Smith who headed up an eight man committee that was also comprised of the Elias Sports Bureau, Seymour see Off, and Don Weiss, who at the time was the NFL SPR Director, And they got together to try to create a way to great quarterback performance and it was designed to be independent

of other metrics in terms of how quarterbacks performed. Now, Mike, the committee actually started trying to come up with a standardized metric for quarterbacks way back in nineteen sixty, but it was real leave following the merger in nineteen seventy that then Commissioner Pete Rosel said, we just have to find a better way to analyze the performance of quarterbacks. And you know what, the NFL had spent a lot of time finding ways to crowd a passing champion in

the league. In the mid nineteen thirties, it was just the quarterback with the most passing yards. Then for a short while it was only using completion percentage. Then in the nineteen forties, they tried to come up with some sort of a ranking system that included where players finished the year in completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, and stayed with some sort of measure of that ranking system until

ninety three when we finally got the passer rating. You know, indeed, it actually makes sense that they would use those categories completions, yards, touchdowns, interceptions. Those are sort of the fundamental things that I think most fans always point to. But as we're getting more data, things have evolved a little bit, and like you mentioned a little bit earlier, I don't think anyone on Earth could recite the formula unless they are a true mathematician.

It's hard to digest. In fact, prominent agent Lee Steinberg actually said back in two thousand one, other than one attorney in our office, I am unaware of a single human being who has the capacity to figure out a quarterback rating. I couldn't agree more with that. So we do know there's one person on the planet, and probably the person who invented it, So two people on the planet that can give you the full skinny on passer raining. But trust me when I tell you just have to

look it up. If you want to see the actual calculation, and even that, go and figure it out. It's fractions on top of fractions, multiplied by fractions. Trust me, I don't want to touch any of this when it comes to the mathematical formula. But the one thing that you do need to know the five key elements of quarterback performance that are used here. And this is more my wheelhouse, right, we'll just talk what we see on the football field completions,

passing yards, passing attempts, passing touchdowns, and interceptions. And since the formula is truly something I would need to break down, break out that old t I D three calculator. Did you have one of those? By the way? Five? Okay, yeah I was. Did you play video games on it? There's one game that we played which I won't mentioned because it's kind of a family show. If you know, you know, um a D two, nice person, you weren't

playing in that game. All right. So let's take a look at what a good rating is and what's a bad rating, and what's a perfect rating and how we actually get there. The committee they crunched the data from nineteen sixty to nineteen seventy two and determined that the average pastor did the following completed fifty percent of their passes, through five touchdowns every one hundred passes, through eleven interceptions every two hundred passes, and through for seven yards per tempt.

Those four marks actually made to be the average in the passer rating formulas. So an average market all four categories. And you don't need the t I A D three calculator for this, I'm just gonna tell you is a

sixty six point seven passer rating. You're sticking with me here not just hit the back fifteen seconds and trust me, I'll I said a pretty slow So with passing obviously becoming more efficient and just more prominent part of the game overall a DT, we've seen a real increase in passer rating since the numbers and and really in the numbers since its inception. So the average passer rating by season I'm going to take you back to nineteen seventy

three was sixty four point nine. It increased in nineteen eighty to seventy three point seven, in seventy seven point three. I could take you through the trends, but just know this in point six, so there has been a straight arrow up for the most part in terms of passer rating a d D okay, But Mike, what about the elusive perfect passer rating and of course the dreaded zero passer rating. I witnessed that to actually, So how exactly can a quarterback end up in each of those sparts.

Let's start with the positive, with the perfect rating, that, of course is one hundred and fifty eight point three. Let's remember that number because when people talk about passer rating, it doesn't really carry any relevance unless you know what the scale is. And the scale is again, the perfect rating is one fifty eight point three. So to get there, you need to have the following. A completion percentage of

at least seventy seven point five per cent. Your touchdowns per pass attempt needs to be at least eleven point nine percent. That's basically a touchdown every ten or so throws. Your yards per attempt should be at least twelve point five, and your interception rate has to be a big fat zero. So one more time, Mike, I'll say it quickly. Completion

percentage at least seventy seven and a half touchdowns. You've got to throw one about every ten pass attempts or so your yards, you've got to be more than twelve yards per attempt, and you cannot throw an interception to get that perfect one fifty eight point three. As for the zero, well, you know, got a complete less than thirty percent of your passes, you can't have a single touch down, your yards per attempt or probably three yards per pass or lower, and you throw a pick basically

every ten attempts. The last zero passer rating game was, unfortunately, Bengals quarterback Brandon Allen. He of course filled in last year after Joe Burrow got hurt and against the Ravens he went six for twenty one for forty eight yards and two interceptions. Now, the last perfect passer rating was Mike No surprise, no surprise. You want to guess who it was? Uh? Yeah, that guy that's retiring in about

twenty years, Tom Brady. Yes, it was indeed, the goat Tom Brady, who in twenty twenty went twenty two for twenty seven for three hundred and forty eight yards and four touchdowns against I'll give you one guest, guess the team, uh ding ding ding. Good job, Mike. We're trying, we're trying. I will admit to you I didn't really know what a perfect passer raining actually encompassed until we started doing

the research for for the show. I mean, even as you were going through it, I was like, oh, okay, because like even the completion percentage number says, I've heard it thrown out there before, and sometimes I see a line that's so darn good and it's not a perfect passer rating. And now I understand why that that's the case, because there's been some epic performances and it's still not

a perfect passer raining. Well to some degree, it's sort of like on base percentage, right, we just accept it for what it is, and we don't necessarily think about every single metric that goes into it, no doubt. But in any case, Mike, we've got a lot more historical facts and figures when it comes to passer rating. We can find out what some quarterbacks think of the metric, and of course we have to talk about whether we really think it's an effective measurement when we come back.

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for whatever your business needs. Up Work the world's work marketplace. Learn more at www dot up work dot com. Welcome back to NFL, explained Mike Yam and A D. D. Kinka Walla with you, and of course we love answering some of your questions. You can find us on social media at a King Kabla at Mike Underscore. Yeah, and keep firing them off because we had we got some good questions. D D and I continue to track them.

But today's episode is all about quarterback passer raining and before the break, we actually gave you the latest or the last quarterback to have that perfect rating and the zero ratings. So let's take a look at some of the historical stats behind the actual metrics. So using the requirement of at least tem passing attempts, there have been seventy two perfect passer rating games since nineteen considering all the games, it's not a big number. So the players

with the most perfect passer ratings in NFL history. A DD there's one that you, oh, fairly well, that's in the mix. You want to do a little name dropping here, Well, you know, and he's just bitted you. And it's really sort of sad because this past year was nothing like when he was in his heyday for sure. But Ben Roethlisberger and the also retired and Hall of Fame quarterback

Peyton Manning both had four games with perfect passer ratings. Yeah, and of course Tom Brady is on that list, and a guy that joined us a couple episodes ago, and Kurt Warner, who I know you spent some time with recently towards the end of the NFL season. So you guys doing some hits on NFL Network. So Brady and Warner, both of those guys posted three Phil Simms, the highest passer rating ever in a Super Bowl, one fifty point nine. That was in Super Bowl twenty one against the Broncos.

Sam's by the way, and this gives you some context on some of these numbers. To get to that one fifty point nine passer rating, he was twenty two or twenty five for two hundred and sixty eight yards three touchdowns. That final score was thirty twenty in that win over Denver. Atlanta's Bobby Aber actually holds the distinction for the record of having the most passing attempts in which he also had a perfect passer rating a d D and lost,

which is just kind of a massive buzz kill. But only four quarterbacks have posted a perfect passer rating in a playoff game. One of those guys you just named dropped before, and Peyton Manning in two thousand three in a wild card game. Dave Craig in three that was also a wild card game. Terry Bradshaw always entertaining us, not only on Fox but also all those commercials that

he does. He did in seventy six in a divisional game against the Colts, Dandy Don Meredith back in nineteen sixty seven a d D also in a divisional game. Well now and extremely recently, Mike. It wasn't perfect, but it was pretty darn closed. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills absolutely towards the Patriots in the first round of the playoffs this year, and Allen's rating was a one

fifty seven point six. He went on eight pass yards, five passing touchdowns, no interceptions, and his team scored seven touchdowns on seven possessions. Now, it's not a perfect passer rating, We'll get into that a little bit later, but it was the second highest playoff passer rating since nineteen fifty. Can you imagine putting out those numbers and it's not a perfect pastor like, that's just kind of insane to me. Yeah, But if you know Josh Allen, like I know Josh Allen,

all he cared about was the dub. Oh Yeah, although that one touchdown the back of the end somewhere you're actually trying to throw it away that At that point, I'm like, yo, this is going to great. When he's like, I wasn't even trying to do that, that's when you know you're having as close to a perfect day as you can when you think you're throwing the ball away

and it turns into a touchdown. And indeed, we have to mention that Alan actually followed that up this past weekend by posting the highest passer rating ever in a playoff loss. It was one of the wildest games in NFL history of forty two thirty six defeat to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Allen's passer rating was one thirty six. Mahomes threw up a point one. Allen basically it felt like he was perfect most of the playoffs, but proves

in the pudding. I guess add that doesn't know is matter well, because this goes back to one of our previous episodes, Mike, teams need defenses, and defense wins championships, and if you can't stop the other team with thirteen seconds left, then you probably don't have a good chance to win a championship. No, I'm with you there, but look so not perfection but almost there. But look, we did drop some guys that did have that perfect passer rating.

There's also the history of the zero passer rating, um which is just yeah, I know, but he looked Terry's on like the good side of this. He's also on the bad side of this, which just means, you know, you got a little some ups and downs. But he obviously had success and he has a Hall of Famer, so he's he can hang his hat on that he has the most zero passer rating games with three, which

kind of thinks. You know, this zero talk is really getting depressing, especially since um, I did actually have to watch some shoddy quarterback play this year. So let's switch to the guys who are at the top of the areas passer rating categories that work. Yeah, let's roll. Let's keep it positive. Alright here, it's quiz time. It's quiz time. Highest paths are rating in history for a career as of the end of the one regular season. What do you think I actually know this one? I saw this

during a game broadcast, So I'll throw in Patrick Mahomes. Oh, well, you are correct, and that is because currently his career pass a rating stands at one oh six point zero. He's followed closely by Deshaun Watson, who has a one oh four point five, and then, of course future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers and presumptive m v P whose all time career passer rating is one oh four point four. Now it's not surprising, actually, Mike that Rogers has the

top two passer rating seasons of all time. Number one was eleven, the year after he beat Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in the Super Bowl. He posted an absolutely absurd one twenty two point five. And then he came awfully close to that Mike in when he put up a one twenty one point five and he did win the m v P that year. Now, the highest passer rating by a rookie. This is also somebody who's playing

right now. In our generation. You want to give it a guess, let's go a little Cowboys love for Dak. You know what, I feel like, you're cheating. You're getting too many of these answers. Correct. It was indeed Dak Prescott in sixteen who had a one oh four point nine. But let's not forget about a young man who I covered all through his rookie year, and that of course, is Robert Griffin the third who in two thousand twelve with the Washington football team under Mike Shanahan, posted a

one oh two point four. And here's a little random known fact r G threes quarterbacks coach at that time in two thousand twelve was Matt Lafleur, who is now Aaron Rodgers head coach in Green Bay, who was also

part of our record episode. And if you missed the record that he had said, I highly encourage to go back and check out that edition of NFL explained good tease right there, Try and try, okay, highest cumulative team passer ratings since nineteen seventy three, So since nineteen seventy three, since we started collating, collecting calculating passer rating, the team that has the highest passer rating. This one's gonna shock you is the Texans within eighty six point one? Yeah right,

I mean, followed by NFL Royalty. That doesn't wouldn't really surprise you, right, The fort are right behind them five point oh, the Cowboys, the Packers, and then the Vikings. Wow, Minnesota almost even surprises me a little bit. I was thinking, Hey, consistency at the quarterback spot when you have real dudes there, right, So the Niners come to mind, Packers certainly come to mind, followed by Aaron Rodgers of course. Yeah, I think about

Montana and Steve You like the whole deal. So yeah, can you get that has the worst team passer ratings since ninety three? Worst? Uh you know what, I'm going to guess Detroit again, let's right division, wrong team? It is the Chicago Bears. Think about a Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman, who I need to tell you though, Rex Grossman is one of the nicest humans on the planet, really really nice guy, sexy rexy anyway, Uh, Bob Avellini who frustrated

the Chicago Faithful. He had a fifty four point eight rating. But I'll tell you this, I really do believe in Justin Fields and uh. I know that the Bears are changing the way that they're doing things in their front office and searching for a new coaching staff and all that, and I believe they're going to put someone in place who's going to take the best possible advantage of justin fields, and that number will rise. There's my prediction for the day.

I can't drop a nugs um and athletically kind of a freak, which also leads me to think about maybe some changes a little bit later that we can discuss with passer rating that I think need to be included in the co And I think that that's really fair, Mike, because people inherently question and passer rating. I mean, first, the only stats that seem to matter in passer rating are again the completions, the yards, the attempts, the touchdowns, and the interceptions. So sometimes you get a little bit

of a weird rating. Okay, Like let's say you've got quarterback A and let's call him, I don't know, Pat Liner maybe goes for three hundred yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions. But then you've got quarterback because you know, I don't know, Jim Tebow maybe goes thirty for forty for just fifty yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. Well, this Jim Tebow guy would have the better passerrating despite throwing for two hundred and fifty fewer yards. How does that make sense?

Mike Um, it doesn't, which leads me to think that there's actually a flaw in the metric. And once again it's the evolution of that position and why it's significant. So despite all of that, when you look at the things that matter most, which is the ws the winds right, there is a strong correlation between the team with the higher passer rating and getting that victory. This podcast is

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the world. Kindrel the heart of progress. Back here on the NFL Explaining Podcast, Mike Yam and A. D. D. Kincobala with you. All right, let's start with this. Each decade has some starting quarterbacks with a higher passer rating win at least seventy of their games. So last season it was actually a little higher seventy nine point four of those games. And as far as the Big One, only seven times in NFL history has the Super Bowl winning quarterback had a lower passer rating than the opposing QB.

So Tom Brady has actually done it three times, Big Ben. He's done it in both his wins. His Super Bowl forty win yielded a twenty two point six rating. Don't matter, you got the victory, got the victory. You can throw that on the resume. Great defense, great run game, great's, great run game. He has said, I will tell you this. He has said that the second Super Bowl was sweeter just because he felt more responsible. But to be fair.

The Steelers did make that first Super Bowl run because of the way he played to get them there, just wasn't the greatest of afternoons for him. Look, I mean, it's the totality of it. You got the rings, it's on the resume. It'll be listed, you know, under the Hall of Fame bust when it does happen. John Elway, by the way, one super Bowl thirty two, how about

this a fifty one point nine rating? Nick Foles my guy one super Bowl fifty two with a one oh six point one that was actually lower than Brady's one fifteen point four. But that's because Nick Foles didn't get credit for that amazing touchdown catch. Imagine if he had good call good call like and that changes the dynamic of things the Philly Special. Maybe there should have been an asterisk next to that QBR that day. So somebody that I've known a long time, Byron Leftwitch, he played

quarterback with the Steelers. He, of course, as the moment that we are recording this right now, is the Bucks offensive coordinator. I remember him once saying that he never really got the QB rating, Like there were times when he would feel that he played really well but then afterwards he'd look at the box score and his QB rating was terrible. And I'm almost sure I am sure that he is on the record saying I really don't know how it all adds up. I can think of

somebody else who said that. Trent Dilfer, of course, who's an alanist on TV now, he once said the same exact thing. He said, I pay attention to my rating on third down and in the red zone. Otherwise, it's most useful for fantasy football people who are more concerned with numbers than good old fashioned winning. Kind of an old school approach, because we're even seeing this now. Analytics does play a huge part of d D in how

teams are proceeding and strategizing and executing on the football field. Yeah, but that has nothing to do with rating. Like that is completely a different thing. Because quarterback rating as an assessment as a metric, I think it's very Again, I would sit here and argue the single most important metric to judge a quarterback by is the W Let's take trential for a look. You want a super Bowl on the back of a great defense, arguably the greatest defense

of all time. The two thousand. Ravens coach Brian Billick lad that team and he ended his career with a very seventy point to pass and rating, but he is a Super Bowl champion. I agree with what you're saying, like, wins at the end of the day is all that matters for all of these teams. But when you are trying to assess what I would call the most important position in all of sports, and that's why you know

we're giving a rating, and there are multiple metrics. You just mentioned qb are, We've been talking about passer rating. There's so many different stats for the evaluation process. Wins are there, but even like you said more recently, wins right, Like, uh, the Rams got to a Super Bowl with Jared Goff, they felt like, hey, we can upgrade at that position. We're gonna go and bring in Matthew Stafford. San Francisco

is a city that I lived in for years. The Niners, you know, they drafted trade Lance even though Jimmy g a couple of seasons ago gets them to a Super Bowl. So look, those teams didn't get over the hump and they didn't win, and I get that, but getting to that game is really difficult, So I'm with you, and maybe wins has to be a factor a d D

when it comes to passer rating in QB are. Interestingly enough, though, when we talked about in the seventies when passer rating is sort of evolving and it's the basic metrics that are out there now, we are blessed and really fortunate and I think in a lot of ways to be able to evaluate players differently with more and more data next gen stats. If you watch NFL network, I mean you see next gen stats all the time during game broadcasting, the whole deal. They just threw their hat into the ring,

and I'm really glad that they did. With a new quarterback metric that dropped following week a team, just in time of course for the playoffs, and it's called passing Score, and it goes deep into the expected value metrics and grades quarterbacks on scores between fifty and ninety nine, which, by the way, I love those types of numbers. Once we get to triple digits, like on grade school, right, we got a hundred on exam? You're good, Like, what's

this one? You know, one sixteen point one thing. But it's going to be interesting to sort of see how this holds up QBR, which you just made reference to. I was at ESPN when they were unveiling QBR Total Quarterback Rating include stats that have passer rating similarities, but also some stuff that doesn't like rushing, like sacks, likes turnovers,

even penalties. So I think it's a little bit more of a holistic view a d D. And then you've got Pro Football Focus right, like they grade not just quarterbacks. They're analyzing every player, every single play, which to me is really cool and I think even more fascinating Addy when you look at the different categories right ESPN, qb R, passer rating, PF grades that are out there, you're gonna

see similarities and crossover of the different players. But sometimes on those lists there's some outliers that are there, like one outlier, and I'm not going to go through the list. It's it's the names that you would think that are in that top ten, top fifteen or so. But if you look but let's let's just say that one more time, Mike, for guys and gals who are listening. So if you took pass or rating traditional passer rating, then you took a p F grade, and then you took the ESPNS

QBR rating. Then, as you were saying, when you look across the top you will generally see some similarities, meaning that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, they're kind of in the top ten, top half consistently across all three metrics. But as you were just saying, there is actually one outlier in this whole system, no doubt,

Jalen Hurts is actually that outlier. Right, So this is a guy who's got a ton of success running the football, twenty two in passer rating, nineteenth in QBR, and guess what, PFF actually has some tenth, So once again he's an outlier. I'd also include Jimmy Garoppolo on that list, who sits ninth in passer rating. You're not gonna see Jimmy G's name though, on ESPN's top ten, their QBR or PF's grating.

So once again, the metrics are a little bit different depending on your skill set and think in a lot of ways a d D. I had this conversation I cornered Cynthia Freeland Um in our NFL Network newsroom the other day, and I had said, Hey, your simulations you're running three hundred thousand of them. Why do you run three hundred thousand simulations when you're doing your individual grades? Don't things level out at like ten thousand simulations or

twenty thousand? Like what's that delta? And she said for her and what she does, And I thought it was fascinating her proprietary software, which is why it's so damn accurate. She's grading out individuals and over three hundred thousand, you get a real holistic view when guys don't play and when guys are playing. So I think once again, when you're evaluating some of these quarterbacks, add it does make it fairly interesting if you're going to lean on some

of these metrics. What metrics matter? And do those metrics matter for certain teams? And the quarterback system matters as well, so meaning that a quarterback could be a perfect fit in one offense in one scheme and one system, and not necessarily work so well in another one. I mean we see that at every position. Essentially. I still come

back to this. To me, it's your ability to win, and that's what ultimately separates you as a quarterback, because the quarterback is the guy that touches the ball on every single play. There is no more important position in the game of football. That's why he's the highest paid guy. That's why he's most likely the face of your franchise, that's why he's most often your captain. So in some way, quarterback wins should be a stat at least that's how

I feel about it. With the only thing I would say, the only caveat there I'd give you is that this is a really rough year for Lamar Jackson. He was

in and out, hurt, up and down. So it might be useful to go back and look at his MVP year and see if in this traditional, traditional way of gauging quarterback play he did indeed fit that or because Lamar Jackson is such an untraditional quarterback and so dynamic and valuable to his team and what he does, that a metric like QBR isn't going to be the best

assessment of who he is and what he does. I don't know what we would have done without gool Goal back in the day doing this podcast, but what I will say is Lamar jackson m v P season was third in passer rating, So you're right, still not number one though, for what it's worth, in that metric and still an m v P type season, although three, you know, we're kind of scratching the service and knocking on the

door to be that top guy. But the results were there with victories, and he means so much to his

football team, So I'm with you. Uhm, it's fascinating. I still like the metrics though, because I still think you need something holistically to give context to what we're seeing at that position well, and I think that people always like to have something to judge or as you said, rank people by, and so until we come up with a better formula, I think that this is what we have, and it's fair as to people who do radio a whole lot, we need things like pastor rating to give

us some fodder. It's funny you say that because I do my best not to include stats. I feel like storytelling is uh numbers. Sometimes I get lost in the numbers, and I know what my eye tells me passes the eye test or not. Is Joe Burrow playing well? Heck yeah, is he hot right now? I don't need to know what his passer rating is. Is Aaron Rodgers a guy

I trust? With forty seconds left in the game, he is somebody I trust, whatever his passerrating is for the day or not, and when's matter super Bowl victories, I'm never really worried about Tom Brady's passer rating. Well, we're gearing up to all of that, right, and we'll see which of these quarterbacks is going to end up in l A pretty soon. Mike. It's been a fun season, that's for sure. It has been awesome, and I hope people learned a little bit of something something here when

it comes to passer rating in quarterbacks. That's right. Thank you everybody for joining us, message us your questions, and that is quarterback rating explained. America's most reliable network is going ultra with Verizon five G ultra wide ban and more and more places with up to ten times faster speeds. You can download a movie in mere minutes. What Yes, Verizon is going ultra so you can to five G

ultrawide ban available in select areas. Most reliable based on rankings from the Root Metrics US ROOTS Score report dated first half, excluding c ban and not specific to five G networks. Your results may vary. Not an endorsement speed comparison to medi and Verizon four G LTE speeds downloads vary based on network conditions and five G content optimization brought to you by up work, where you can build the team that will build your business. Learn more at upwork dot com.