Does Defense Actually Win Championships Anymore?

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and five G content optimization. You're familiar with it. Longtime football fans of the NFL. They know all about Pittsburgh Steel Curtain, the defense of the seventies, the Bears forty six defense that shuffled their way to the Super Bowl in the eighties and perhaps the most dominant defense ever the two thousand Ravens, who allowed just ten point three points per game. You gotta be kidding me. But in the twenty years since that Baltimore team hosted the Lombardi

Trophy scoring the NFL. Yeah, here it is. It's of and it begs the question, in the era of dynamic offenses, does defense actually win championships? What's going on? Everyone? I'm like, dam joined us always by the defense apologist, Dude Kinkawala ready to rock and roll today. I'm just throwing it out there. It's not being an apologist if it's factual and true, right Mike. We'll find out by the end of this episode if it's factual and true. Today on

the NFL Explained, does defense win Championships? We will examine Super Bowl winners past and present to determine if you in fact need a top rated defense to hoist the Lombardi Trophy or this is where I'm going to quick bowl. I'm taking a little random aside right here, Mike. I don't think you need a top rated defense. I just think you need an outstanding defensive effort. And we will come to that when we come to the team that you and I grew up rooting for and the last

time they want a Super Bowl tease. Tease tease, Okay, Have offenses become the key to unlocking the championship code in recent years? There are definitely a few ways to look at what makes the top ranked defense. So we'll look at it from a few different angles, and we will hopefully have an answer for you by the end.

Although I already do have my answer, Mike, although it sounds like you're hedging just a little bit without your little aside, I feel like, you know what, This is one of those things, Mike, that we want to keep people involved, and so even though I feel so strongly about how I feel, it's probably important to keep an open mind and see if we can allow our listeners to come away with a different p o V. Of course, if they disagree with me, it's not necessarily the correct

p o V. Here we go in DDT the next episode of NFL explained. So we're going to look at scoring defense first, Mike. It's the defense that's allowed the fewest amount of points per game. Then we'll look at a combination of defense season statistics of points per game and the total yards given up per game. And then finally we've got what we talked about in one of our most recent episodes, analytics. It's a new wave or a more complete way to perhaps rank offenses and defenses.

So Mike, just really quick heads up here for you and for all our listeners. Probably a lot of numbers today, So don't operate any heavy machinery while listening to this episode. That's the beauty of these podcasts. Now you can just hit ten seconds back and you'll be able to just go,

what was that number? One more time because you're right, a lot of the statistics in the data it can get a little overwhelming at times, but I think it's really important to use some of these numbers to paint the picture when we're trying answer this question about defense winning championships. But I think you, you know, look your old school, right, like you like this idea of running

the football playing defense. Doesn't get more old school than Paul bear Bryant, who's I think many consider the greatest college coach of all time, and he said, offense tells tickets, defense wins championships when one, another Alabama great, was asked if it's still true Nick Saban, who I think you might be able to make an argument, is actually the greatest college football coach of all time. He actually made

a really good point. He said, it used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren't going to score, you were always going to be in the game. I'm telling you it ain't that way anymore. So things have shifted over time, at least according to one of the all time great coaches at the college level. But

then you start thinking, what about the NFL? Dudes? Right, did you see that ESPN show a d d when Belichick and Saban were together and they actually showed personality which was kind of fun and watch film and told stories. You know, when I saw some personality out of Bill Belichick. It was just recently after this Monday night game in the snow in Buffalo, when Bill Belichick believed so much in offensive football that he had his quarterback attempt exactly

three passes. Okay, extenuating circumstances when you're in the middle of a tornado and a windstorm as well. Yeah, tell us what Bill Belichick said about to said, we kind of disagreed with Sabin, but I think he heads a little bit. He's typically disagreed. Look, I'll let our listeners be the judge of this. Each game is its own game, so it's hard to generalize. Doesn't sound like he's disagreeing to me, at least off of that. I don't think having your good defense is a bad thing. It's hard

to score fifty points every game. It's nice when you don't have to score a lot of points. We want a super Bowl scoring thirt team points. That's not a bad thing. He also went on to say football is a team game, and there's three facets to it. If you're not good in an area, it's probably going to catch up with you against a better balanced team. I understand what Nick saying. We've talked about that because they're boys, right. I think Bill's point, at least in the NFL perspective,

like colleges, is a different animal. I spent a long time covering college football. The teams aren't always balanced, and they're certainly not always equal on the field. The NFL is a different monster and a different machine. You know, as we go through a lot of these stats of d D, it should be noted sometimes we're only talking about a percentage or two that gives way to a

team being ranked significantly higher than another. And that's why that phrase any given Sunday ener Jamie Fox and al Pacino, and we can do the whole movie thing. That's why you do see so many upsets and so much parody,

where on the college level you don't. So I think Bill's point about balanced teams is actually a really good one and why obviously those Patriots teams have had as much success as they've had, and and to that point, him saying that, really, at the end of the day, football is not being a slave to anyone's scheme, but it's recognizing the top of your quote right there, was each game is its own game. So each game calls upon you to do something perhaps a little bit different.

It's a matchup game more than it is a slave to a scheme game. But you know what, before we even get into any of that, and we talk about the defensive plan that Todd Bowles came up with for the Tampa Bay Bucks against Patrick Mahomes, or the defensive plan that Perry Fuel came up with for the New York Giants against the Patriots all those years ago. Let's just talk about some of the numbers, right, and some of the most memorable defenses in the National Football League.

We have to start with the group that you outlined first, the Steelers of the nineteen seventies, the Steel Curtain. The Steelers won the Super Bowl. Do you know how many times in the nineteen seventies behind the Steel Curtain? Four

times handling business because of those dudes on defense. That's right, Joe Green, And I mean, we could just sit here and keep on naming Hall of famers, but the whole point here is that their defense had top five finishes in both points allowed and yards allowed in six different seasons from nineteen seventy two in nineteen seventy nine, And as much as we want to look at Golden Boy

Terry Bradshaw, it is that defense that drove that team. Look, there was Joe Green, there was Mel Blunt, there was Donnie Shell, there was Jack Ham, there was Jack Lambert. There was L. C. Greenwood. Who is the only one of all those names that I just mentioned who's not in the Hall of Fame, but whose teammates all believe that he absolutely should be a part of that Hall of Fame. And then look at Super Bowl twenty winners, the Chicago Bears. They were known as the Monsters of

the Midway. They had the fewest points allowed per game three point three, basically a field goal. They basically allowed a field goal per game, fewest yards per game allowed. And then in their playoff run, which by the way, ended with a forty six to ten win over the Patriots, they pitched shutouts against the Giants and the Ramps. So it wasn't just a season of shutting people down, it was a playoff run of shutting people down. More impressive

when you think about the postseason. Those are supposed to be the best teams and they were all that dominance. So you're making a case for defense. But look, I think you can look at Ditka Mike t former Bears head coach, and in that year he said, you win with offense in the National Football League. Now, and this is a dude who won with one of the greatest defenses ever, which is really impressive when you consider just

sort of the shift in philosophy. Now. Once again, he made those claims back in twelve and I think we've even sewed even more heavily to some of these offensive numbers. But let's take a look back at some of these other defenses. Two thousand Ravens, for sure, Absolute Beast Super Bowl winners had the lowest scoring offense twenty point eight points per game. Can you imagine just putting up twenty one points a game, Like, you're not gonna win a whole lot unless you have a defense that's giving up

ten point three points per game. They led the league that year, um and it was the best scoring defense in the last forty years, so certainly impressive. You got the Seahawks of the twenty tens, the legendary secondary Lesion of Boom. I know we touched on them during our

Names episode. Encourage you to go back and listen to that episode of NFL explained those guys were tremendous, that Legion of Boom, the number one is scoring defense, top five in yards allowed from and then of course they won the Super Bowl back in and of course when you have a nickname that good, there's gonna be some offshoots. Legion of Zoom, what up? Kansas City Chiefs obviously getting

it going. But dd I know there's a ton of numbers that we've been getting at but I think when we come back, we gotta make a case for offense, right or is there one stat for defense that really trumps everything? We got the answer coming up next on NFL explained, America's most reliable network is going ultra with rise in five G Ultra wide band and more and more places, so you can do more without the ten times faster speeds. You can download a movie in mirror minutes.

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up the board. We had to hold it a little to the welcome back to the NFL Explained Podcast, She's a d D kin kabwala, Mike yam with you and a d D looking at the defenses. It's all about winning championships, isn't it. That's kind of the whole point of this episode. So our research team, absolutely phenomenal, went back last fifty five Super Bowl. So thirty three out of the fifty five Super Bowl winners have had a

top five scoring offense. Thirty three out of those fifty five Super Bowl winners had a top five scoring defense, so relatively balanced. Going back to Belichick's quote about having it's about thirty three, yeah it's bounced. So they're both sitting there. Top five scoring offense, top scoring defense. Now, twenty four teams with the number one scoring offense have reached the Super Bowl. Twenty one teams a d D with the number one scoring defense have reached the Super Bowl.

And among the one hundred and ten Super Bowl teams, nine six had a top ten scoring offense. So you're wondering, what about those scoring defenses? Right? Well, super Bowl teams eighty eight of them had a top ten scoring defense, and of that group, seventy six had a top ten scoring offense and scoring defense. So once again, maybe the numbers a d D scream or at least quietly say

it's all about the offense. Maybe, Except listen, only five Super Bowl winners of all time have had a top five scoring offense without a scoring defense that was in the top ten, So that would actually say you need to be a balanced team who can do both. Broadway Joe Namath, he led the Ninetts to that Super Bowl upset win while that scoring defense was outside the top ten. John Madden coached Ken Stabler nineteen seventy six Raiders team

that didn't have a particularly good defense. The three Raiders with Marcus Allen and Jim Plunkett, well, they didn't have a top ten defense. The two thousand six Colts with of course Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison did not have a top ten defense. And the two thousand nine Saints Drew Brees, they did not have a top ten defense. But the flip to that is so let me remind you again, there have been five Super Bowl winners that had a top five scoring offense but did not have

a top ten scoring defense. There have been eight eight eight is more than five mic eight Super Bowl winners that had a scoring defense in the top five but a scoring offense that was not in the top ten. So look at the two thousand eight Steelers. You remember those two thousand Stealers, right, They did not have a high rank scoring offense twenty in the NFL. They barely averaged twenty two points per game, but they had a number one scoring defense. That defense allowed less than two

touchdowns a game. And those two thousand eight Stealers, of course, won the Super Bowl. And then, as you said, the two thousand Ravens who beat our New York Giants when we were young little kids in New Jersey rooting for the Giant, right, I remember that came Well, I mean for me, that's a wind column for the defense, right, because there's more that had an overwhelming defense that could

overcome an underwhelming offense as opposed to the flip side. Okay, but you are talking about the number one scoring defenses in both of those instances making up for maybe a lack of offensive production, which to me means maybe we're looking at least some of those cases they're they're the outliers. So I think, look, the game has changed, right, Like, I think it's abundantly clear. We all watched the game on Sundays, Mondays and Thursdays. The point is things do

askew on the offensive side. So let's take a look at least at the last eight years and the Super Bowl winners when it comes to their offensive and defensive rankings. Last eight seasons, only one team ranked outside the top eight in either offense or defense, which makes sense, right, Like, you've got to be one of the better teams to even get to the Super Bowl and that was Broncos,

who were nineteenth and offense but fourth on defense. Well, and so this goes to my point about we are talking about trends and season long and how a defense walks into a game. And so I'll use the Mannings again and I'll go back to that Giants team that I covered in two thousand eleven, and it actually matches exactly.

So Eli Manning is the quarterback of the Giants in two thousand eleven wins the Super Bowl m v P, and Peyton Manning is the quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts in two thousand six and wins his first Super Bowl MVP. Neither the Colts nor the Giants had particularly good defenses that year. In fact, there are two of the very few outliers and that their bottom ten defenses that actually won super Bowls. But look at what happened in the

Super Bowl. Let's start with two thousand and six. The Colts beat the Bears twenty nine seventeen in Super Bowl forty one, and so the Bears had both an offense and a defense that was ranked in the top three at the time, but the Colts came up with such a dynamic defensive performance in this one game that they were able to completely contain the Bears, hold them the seventeen points, and that's ultimately why the Colts won. I mean,

this wasn't the greatest show on turf. Twenty nine points is not like, oh my god, you're ripping your hair out. Move forward to Super Bowl forty six, when Eli Manning and his Giants were in the house that Peyton built in Indianapolis, Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Giants beat the Patriots one seventeen. That Giants defense was not particularly good. They were actually twenty five and points per game allowed, but they had these four tremendous defensive ends that defensive

coordinator Peri Fuel used in his Nascar defense. Their stunts, their pressure, they completely messed with Tom Brady, hold the Patriots and Tom Brady to seventeen points, and hey, the Giants win their second Super Bowl under Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. So while that doesn't necessarily fit our earlier explanation of great defenses over the course of the season, it is about coming up with a tremendous defensive performance

and that's what ultimately won the game. In the cherry on the top here is that only nine teams have won a Super Bowl with a scoring offense ranked outside the top ten. But those nine teams were basically bailed

out by their defenses. Seven Green Bay Packers they were the thirteenth worst in points per game, the New York Giants they were fourteenth worst, the two thousand to Tampa Bay Bucks fifteenth worst in points per game, the two Pittsburgh Steelers, which we just talked about, thirteenth worst in points per game. On the two thousand fifteen Denver Broncos fourteenth worst in points per game. None of those offenses were setting anybody on fire, but their defenses drove them too,

and then led them to Super Bowl titles. Well, one of the things that's kind of interesting is you make reference to some of those teams in some of those instances we're talking about decades ago, and I get the Denver Bronco that's not that long ago. But the point is, I think we can all agree that the game is

trending more towards offenses. And if you look at the last ten Super Bowl winners according to d v o A, and some people are like, what's d v o A. Well, if you're static you know exactly what we're talking about. The analytics experts, they love to use d v o A, which stands for defense adjusted value over average. Basically, it's stats that measure a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to the league average based on situation

an opponent. Trust me, it sounds complicated, and it is actually complicated, So we won't go into full details around that stuff. But if you just trust in that metric and you look at those last tense Super Bowl winners using d v o A, the average rank of the defenses z LEMN, where's the offense. It's actually ranked higher, sitting at eighth. So it does seem like the offenses more recently seem to have a little bit more success

in some of those bigger games. I just feel like you're reaching at this point with the d v o A. I think that that's one of the magical qualities of numbers. You can make them tell you whatever you want them to tell you. But here I'll give you numbers that you cannot quibble with, and that is takeaways. To me. One of the most important, not just exciting, but important defensive metrics is how good is your team at taking the ball away, Can you stem momentum, can you change

the tide? Can you stall a drive? It's what Steeler said coach Mike Tomlin called splash plays. So how about this one thirty six out of the fifty five Super Bowl winners, that means more than sixty five per cent of every team that's won a Super Bowl ranks in the top ten in takeaways. Seven teams won a Super Bowl after finishing first in takeaways that season, and really six of the first thirty five Super Bowls were won by the team that ranked first in takeaway. So there's

only three teams. Though. Let me tell you this because it's kind of cool. There's only three teams in the entire Super Bowl era that finished number one in total yards per game allowed, which we talked about earlier, and points per game allowed, which we talked about earlier, and this stat takeaways. That's the Seahawks, which of course won the Super Bowl, the Chicago Bears, which of course won the Super Bowl, and then the nineteen seven Minnesota Vikings

who lost in the divisional round. But you know, I'm not blaming that entirely on the defense. I actually buy into what you're saying with regard to takeaways. I don't know if you realize this, Adity. I don't think you and I have talked about this, but I actually do my own statistical analysis and modeling on my own and I always use yeah we can, Yeah, we could talk about that off air, but I always use turnovers as a metric because I do think it. It leads to it.

It is a predictor to success. So I'm not suggesting that defense doesn't win championships or does because you obviously need a really strong defense. We chronicle the numbers and what they mean. Generally speaking, being in the top five, top ten in both offense and defense get a really good chance of making it to the Super Bowl. I

do think the importance of takeaways is really significant. But off of those takeaways, Adity, you're kind of relying on your offense to deliver and score unless we're talking about a scoop and score or a pick six. So you need to be able to score. And look, I know where you're at, and you're a defense wins championship type of person. I think the game the way it's played right now, you need offense. It is skeewed heavily. Some of the rules, some of the things that we've seen

on the field does give offenses an advantage. And the only thing that I will say is, while it's fun to watch, you know, defense and the toughness, I think if your team has the mentality that you're just tougher no matter how you deliver it, whether it's on offense or defense, you still got a pretty good chance of winning the game because this is a game for tough players to try to achieve at the highest peaks, which

is winning a Super Bowl. Sure, but here's my last final point, Mike, and you're not going to be able to talk your way out of this one. This is when we come to our quiz section. Okay, so seven times in the Super Bowl era, the number one scoring defense in the NFL met up with the number one scoring offense. Got it, super Bowl matchup, number one scoring defense versus the number one scoring offense. Give me a record. I would imagine it's not heavily favored towards the offensive players.

Knowing where you stand and how you give me a record, give me a record, stop and give me a record. Four and one. I won't go with a clean sweep, just to seven seven seven? Uh? Then I will go one game above them, will do a little four in three action No. Six and one. Six times the number one scoring defense took it to the number one scoring offense. The one exception was in nine when San Francisco beat Denver, but that's because that offense was so outrageous and ridiculous

the score was ten. I'd also love to know what those defenses were offensively and what those offensive teams were defensively, because then I'll circle back right to what Bill Belichick said and the quote from the start of this podcast, being a well balanced team will get it done. So me and I don't know enough about it can and maybe we can dig if you have the teams in front of you. I'd love to know the rankings because that's how I would talk my way out of that

situation and team. You know, look, I have covered Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers and the a f C North for a long time, and there's one ethos in this sort of weather and in this division, and that is that when you have a good defense, you always have a chance. And in fact, that is something that Mike Tomlin has said repeatedly. He's been a part of a number one defense as an assistant coach in Tampa

Bay with those two thousand and two bucks. He was with the Steelers when the number one defense won the two thousand and eight Super Bowl. So again, for me, I think that if you can stop the other guys, you're in good shape. And if I we're building a team, I'd build my team around a great pass rusher before

I would behind a great running back. You know, Mike Tomlins quote does resonate for me, and I think you're right because when your offense is having a bad day, if you can rely on your defense and win ugly, for sure, I think there's something to be said for that. And hopefully your bad day doesn't come when the world's eyes are on you in the Super Bowl. And if it does and you have that better defense, maybe it is a way to make the case to win a championship.

But the way the rules are set up, the way things are trending, I'll still take my offense and feel good about my chances. But I'll go back to what you said a little while ago when you were talking about toughness. Don't you feel like defensive players have a little different mentality than offensive players. Yeah, I think generally speaking,

there's something to that. But I'm the last guy that says some of those big boys, those mushroom men up front on an offensive line that have done a tremendous job in in You know, if you want to run the football, for example, which is by the way, part of offense, like those are tough dudes as well, and it's not always the easiest thing to be the target. You know. It's one thing when you know the hit is coming because you're the guy unleashing it, and there's

definitely a tough mentality. It's another thing to be a wide receiver going across the middle know that some dude's trying to take your head off as well, and that's not always the easiest thing. The game is filled with tough people. But to your point, I would generally say, maybe that does lie on the defense. But if I'm building my team, I just want tough dudes fair. But I mean, we'll see what happens, right, We've got another season, We've got another data point to add in just a

few months. But I'm still going to ride with the idea that, especially in January, especially in bad weather, it's your defense that's going to carry you well. I would love to know what some of our listeners think about this, and we have actually got a lot of interaction lately, and of course we've got our mail Bag episode coming up very very soon, so continue to fire off some of those tweets. I'm compiling the list at Mike Underscore,

yam at a king kabwala. You can use the hashtag NFL explain And if you think defense wins championships, don't at me just you can just at a d D

and you guys can have your little celebration party. But you think it's all about the offense, to make sure you hit up a d D ki kabwala tag me on that so I can get the last last, all right, Mike, And that for everybody out there, and you especially is the supremacy of defenses explained brought to you by up work, where you can build the team that will build your business.

Learn more at upwork. Dot Com. America's most reliable network is going ultra with Verizon five G Ultra wide band and more and more places with up to ten times faster speeds. You can download a movie in mere minutes. What Yes, Verizon is going ultra so you can to five G ultra wide ban available and select areas most reliable based on rankings from the Root Metrics US ROOT Score report dated first half, excluding c ban and not

specific to five G networks, Your results may vary. Not an endorsement speed comparison to Media Verizon four G LTE speeds, downloads vary based on network conditions and five G content optimization