What's on the 2022 political horizon, with special guest host Brian Goldsmith

you've witnessed? This is much different. It costs more than three hundred million dollars to build this little research beforehand. And this is named after Gary Hart. No, Phil Hard, long time senator from Michigan. So podcasting isn't really what I do anymore. I'm now a media and tech consultant, but still a political junkie as obsessed with elections today as I was back in two thousand and eight when I was lucky enough to be part of the team

behind Katie's iconic interviews with Sarah Palin. Have you ever finished off with any negotiations, for example, with the Russians? We have trade missions back and forth. We we do It's very important when when you consider even national security issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where do they go. It's Alaska, It's just right over the border.

So today Katie asked me to talk about what else politics were about to head into a new year, an election year, a very big one, and I thought it would be helpful to look ahead at the political landscape in two Who were going to be the players shaping the mid terms, what are the big issues and forces, and what are the consequences of the elections next year. We're lucky to be joined today by two of the sharpest, wittiest politicos I know, two of my favorite tech sting buddies.

In fact, Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who is kind of a defraked Republican strategist these days because he's a Republican against Donald Trump, but in the old days he worked for John McCain, Met Romney, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and many others. And Democratic strategist Liz Smith, who has also been around the block politically, although not as many times as Mike, whom I actually met when she was the senior communications advisor to my pal Pete Boutigg when he was running

for president. So let's start by talking about the campaign next year. What's at stake? Thirty four Senate seats, every House seat, thirty six governors races. UM just very simply, why did the midterms matter? And and Mike, let's start with you. Well, they met her on sort of two dimensions. One, they matter because particularly now we're we're an historically thin margin even in the House, and of course we're hide

in the Senate. So one party will gain a lot of power, my guests, as the Republicans will win the House, which gives them the checkbook, which will take the Biden agenda on domestic policy to a screaming halt on anything big and budget driven. The other in the Senate, somebody's gonna win and somebody is likely to lose. It could wind up fifty fifty, which is the facto democratic because

the VP can cast a tie. But um, it could deleverage the in my view, heroic moderates like Mansion and Cinema if the Dems can run up their number and get tighter ideological control. Finally, I'd say the other dimension is the narrative is Biden going up or going down. It's you know, there's all this bullshit and politics. Everybody has an opinion. You can find two different cable TV channels or podcasts or whatever. But elections are like the

Wall Street phrase mark to market. It's the one day where the voters get to straighten out all the bs and you can see what's really going on out there. And the midterms are the most important measure like that, other than a presidential race. And Liz, do you agree with Mike that if the Republicans win one or both houses, Biden's agenda comes to a screeching halt. Uh. It becomes a lot harder to implement. And I agree with him about the narrative, right, it becomes a narrative problem for

Joe Biden. But I would point to the election right, Democrats got our asses kicked. You know, I was in Ohio in two I worked for Ted Strickland. It was one of the few races that was actually very close. It was like a two point oh margin or something like that. UM. And the narrative coming out of was that Barack Obama was dead man walking UM. For of course,

he ended up winning fairly handily in UM. But part of it was that it was a kick in the you know, it was I know, sorry, I'm not sure what under neutral phrase, by the way, under the new rules of the Democratic Party. So it was a pick in a dense area full of nerves and it grows is great pain. Okay, let's see dot org. But but but but let me let me but let me just

say this was it was UM. It was a wake up call for Democrats that we needed to go more on the offensive, and we needed to make sure that we were making clear the choice between Democrats and Republicans

and really going out and selling our agenda. And the one frustration that UM I have at times right now with the Democratic Party is that we know, we hear every day how popular billback better or Biff or whatever is, but we're not out there necessarily communicating as aggressively as we could be about these things and about the choice

that voters faced between Democrats and Republicans. Okay, and we're going to come back to that, but I want to zoom out for for one more minute, which is UM, there's a history of this president's parties almost always lose a lot of seats in the mid terms and the term exactly. Um. Since nix, the average midterm loss for president's party is twenty five seats and it's very closely tied to the president's approval rating. That is the number of people in a poll who say they approve of

the job that the president is doing. For presidents below approval, which is basically where President Biden has been since the summer, the average loss is thirty seven House seats, and so you know, even half of that would wipe away the Democratic House majority. Um. Is there anything that the President, the White House, the Democratic Party can do, um in the face of these you know, really powerful historical headwinds, or do they basically need to accept that the House

is lost? Well, they My advice to them would be to stop fucking up. Um. Sorry, good advice. No, No, it's okay, it's okay, we're gonna So here's the problem. You're right, and that's the you know, I think, and I think Liz is right too. You can over interpret the mid terms. Um, it's loaded against the incumbent president, particularly in the first term. But that said, when you're polling,

numbers are collapsing. When you ran as the alternative the chaos to bring normalcy back, but instead you've got kind of an ideological chaos of your own going. Um, then all those life asks of well this is their traditional bump in the road, it doesn't tell the big picture. Well, the big picture is right now medium disaster politically for Joe Biden, a huge exploding doubts and at least in the conventional wisdom beltway, which means maybe you've got to

discount them a little for Kamala Harris. And so when you add upon that the traditional trouble you've gotten the mid terms, it becomes an amplifier of the narrative. So what can of White House do? Um, they can use the political power of the presidency in a competent way to try to marginalized the losses and make it easier

for those losses to be defined as historical normal. Right now, they're going to be defined if nothing changes, as obvious result of political disaster for the Democratic Party and the president, both ideological in my view. And you know, the increasing thing questions about Biden, you know, why why do they keep stumbling blah blah blah, And there'll be there'll be a chorus of partisans who are going to say that

no matter what he does. But I think most honest reporters right now think, well, his phone numbers are collapsing. He hasn't hit a home run. The best thing he had, infrastructure, got lost in this house slappy fight between the progressives and the few remaining moderates. Joe Mansion is running the country, not Joe Biden, and he's a he's a week bystander. So you don't set up the mid terms to mean more by the stumble bump stuff that they somehow become

caught in. Some of us their faults, some of it not. Well, let me let me build off of that. Do you think there's a stumble bum narrative that's developed around the president? Because I'll give you the alternative case, which is, you know, he came in and very quickly passed the American Rescue Plan. He passed it by part as an infrastructure plan that most people doubt it could get done. Uh. The economy is roaring back much more quickly than was projected when

he took office. So why is his approval rating at forty or fort Uh? Well, I think some of it is due to things out of his control. Um, there's a lot of fatigue with COVID, you know the fact that it's seemingly never going away, and a lot of that is out of his control. And you know, he can go out there and point out, well, he accelerated back getting vaccines to more people. Republicans fought them at every um, fought them tooth and nail at every step.

But as long as people you know, feel burdened by you know, continued mass mandates and UM lock downs, whatever it is, that, I think that that's going to hurt him. UM. So I think that some of the narrative around him is unfair given the things that he's been able to do, which to me highlights why they've got to be aggressive in going out and selling their agenda and and selling

the great things that they have done. And I know that the White House is planning on doing that, and we've seen the White House be more aggressive in recent weeks doing that. Um. But another thing is to Mike's earlier point, I'm gonna censor myself for once, UM about to stop at history here. Mike is less profane than Liz Smith. That's shocking up right right. This is like

Katie Kirk after dark here. So, UM, but is what we saw in Virginia in New Jersey that was very troubling to me is that Republicans were seen as more

in touch with voters, as more in touch with their concerns. UM. And I think the Democrats allow themselves to get sort of thrown off what should have been the core message, UM, the message that really voters care about, which is we're improving your live We're delivering economic results for you, We're trying to lower costs, we're trying to fight covid UM.

And instead, you know, they're going off on tangents about stuff like uh, critical race theory and and defending UM school closures, which are you know about is you know, popular as herpies at this point. So Democrats need to get go more on the offensive about the very good things that we've done, because again, we are the party right now that is fighting to lower costs for people, We're fighting UM to get people childcare, tax credits, all

these great economic things. Republicans are standing in the way of that, and instead we're going down these crazy rabbit holes and culture wars that we don't need to be in the middle of. The other thing that Terry mccauloff, the Democratic candidate in Virginia, really tried to do was link the Republican to Donald Trump, and that became a core element of his message and didn't seem to work. Um, do you think that that portends something for the elections

next year? It does, And I'd be interested to hear Mike's Mike's take on this, But I'll just say briefly, if you look at eighteen when Democrats took back the House, even with all this gerrymandering and everything, we were able to take back the House. You look at the ads that Colin all Red ran, that Andy Kim ran, that Lauren Underwood ranchers Democrats who beat Republicans to take the House that year. Right, thank you for clarifying that, Yes, they were not ads about Donald Trump. They were not

hair on fire sort of Lincoln project ads. They were ads, um, that were focused on economic issues, on healthcare, which was the number one issue in eighteen. And I think it's incumbent on Democrats to understand that, um, that while the belt Waite conversation might revolve completely around Trump and most people's lives, don't you know they just carefully can pay the rails. And the more that we're talking about those things bread and butter issues and less we're talking about Trump,

the better. And I would advise Democrats to go back to that playbook. And Mike, do Democrats um have the capacity to argue that when they're in charge of the country believes we're on the wrong track. Biden owns people's perceptions of the economy, which are really bad right now, despite the stock market, but despite the headline unemployment numbers, some combination of costs, inflation, maybe chaos in Washington is leading people to decide that, you know, no matter what

Biden says, they they disagree with it. Well, the premise of your question, yes, I mean Biden is the captain, so it's gonna be about him. And in the belt Way and the chattering class, it's always about Trump out in voter land if you're not operating within the Democrat excuse me, the Republican primary electorate. Trump is rear view mirror yesterday's news. Why are you still talking about it?

The biggest problem we have now on the Republican side, as we have this kind of cement head bund that is scary, terrible, anti patriotic and basically now running the House of Representatives. Uh, and we'll run it farther if we get in the majority, which is likely, you have a larger faction. But their cowards, so cowards don't count in factional wark as they hide, they don't fight. But the Democrats in some ways have a bigger problem, which

is because our very democracy. And I don't tend to be hysterical about this like some people, but it is under threat. Um the Democratic Party is now too important for the Democratic leadership class because they're helping cause Trump point two point oh, because they want to fight on identity and the Democrats are stumbling into culture wars and they're holding a weak hand. Morally, they might argue they're holding a strong hand, but politically it is a weekend.

It is secular superiority, mocking institutions, all about identity grievance. If you went to Joe Biden's website and by the way, I voted for Biden. That's so much I hated Trump. You know, I was shaking. I needed a drink. It was a painful experience for me. I'm a I'm a firm conservative, but I thought Trump should danger to the to the country, so I voted for Biden, and I had hopes he'd stick with his kind of center of steal.

And So back to Biden's website, if you if you went down on the landing page, there were like fifteen little iconic cartoons of different groups. Every group's represented and the Republican Party. And I'm channeling Mark Lilla here, who's a Columbia professor. Luckily for him tenured, he's a liberal. He wrote a great short book. I highly recommend the Once in Future Liberal after Hillary lost. But they do a corporatist in the political science sense of the word,

a democratic coalition of all these groups with grievances. I'm a left handed Native American for Biden, I'm of this. I'm of that confederation of groups. We do the one big unifying idea Shining City on the Hill with Reagan, make America great again with Trump. Uh. That tries to unite everybody in that cause. So this group is um tells working class white people, holy crap, we need to get a group, and then the Trump's of the world

show up with their racism and their nativist arguments. So the problem that Democrats have is getting out of this group. Is um that drives in and getting back to a unified message about how and middle class economics the Democratic Party will help you. And we're back into it now because even Biden's build Back Better, which reminds me of the slogan of a chiropractic chain um, is perceived as cost right now, not benefit when you test the elements

of it. There's voter candy in there all the way, but it's not relevant to what people think about Biden really quick. They also think Biden is weak. It's not about his eight point policy. Planet's about he's the old man watching the house blow up, and nobody will listen to him, and that's kryptonite for a president. Unfair, but that's the way politics works. We're going to take a break right now to pay the bills and we'll be

right back. You're listening to next question. I'm Brian Goldsmith and I'm talking with two of my favorite political strategists, Liz Smith and Mike Murphy about the upcoming mid terms. Let's get back to it. It is striking to me the extent to which performance may not matter. Policy may

not matter as much anymore. I mean, Biden sign legislation that literally sent most Americans a direct deposit of fives every month, and people don't know about it, or if they know about it, they don't give Biden credit for it. He passed this once in a generation, biggest investment in infrastructure since Eisenhower, and he got no credit, no lift in his numbers. As a result, has politics just become us versus them, tribalism, entertainment, disconnected from what's going on

in the country or what Biden is able to accomplish. Well, I think a little bit it has become that. Um uh. But again just I think the belt Way conversation was very much focused on process. I do not think if you go around asked your neighbors, asked your friends, that they that they really know a huge amount about the back and forth between the squad and cinema and mansion, all of that. Um. And it's always important, at least to me, to keep in mind that people, I guess

are very much in the bubble. Um. But we have eleven months to sell this just because Biden didn't get and I think it's silly to think that he would get some huge bomb overnight just because he passed his bill. I know it's historic but it goes to what you were saying, Brian, that there is a large amount of tribalism these days and it is sort of hard to

break through that. However, over the next eleven months, it's incumbent upon Democrats um at every level to sell the hell out of his accomplishments and to point out the checks that people are getting. And a few weeks ago I got dollar check and to anyone of any income, that's a big chunk of change. And if people know the Democrats are doing this and the Republicans have tried to stop this sort of stuff at every sup of

the way, that is a winning message for Democrats. But let me let me just quickly interject, because I agree with all that, but I have a big caveat the two things. One, if see Biden didn't get a lift from infrastructure because nothing ultimately happened. It got passed in the Senate, but it didn't get passed past by getting through the House quickly, so the White House communication machine could have turned on and the thing is perfect for

a three or four months. Wow, look what just got done fast and possibly in d C. Thank your President Biden. You know, there's the oldest slogan in the world Governor Rhodes in Ohio, Roads and Progress, so he didn't get any of that. Instead it became a confusing Washington slappy fight, just like before, where the squad was like mad, there weren't enough trillions in it, and some guy from West Virginia said, and boom, it's lost in that no opportunity

to hey, I got elected. Trump's gone and I just built a lot of new highways and your brother in law can get a good union job. That was all taken from him. Now. Maybe they have it now, but they could have run their messaging for six months on a big win. And to your point about issues not mattering, they matter less now because the old intermediaries are gone in the digital tribal age and the old days, Walter Kronk I would say, this is amazing, the biggest infrastructure

bill ever. Here's what it means to you. Now we've got eight hundred channels. Half of them are just insanity of one tribe or the other picking everything apart. So it's very hard to get the rewards you used to earn with real accomplishment out there. So you have to be better at doing less doing big things. And hammering them in. Finally, one big problem they've got with this

build back better thing. The elements may test so well, but because the nature of the legislative process is to shove so many elements in it, no one element gets all the attention. If this were the child care bill period, it would translate a lot more and help them instead of the big bundle of a trillion dollars worth of view spending bill, which is easier to call inflation. So two more issues that may cut through the noise that you both are describing our COVID and abortion, and let's

let's do one at a time. With COVID, Biden came in with a big advantage in terms of Americans perception of his handling of that issue. Now people are are evenly split, Liz, when you think about the unpredictable future variants, is omikrone going to be the new delta or is it just going to be a blip? Um our school is going to stay open? How do you assess the political impact, to put it in purely crass terms of

this once in a lifetime hopefully pandemic um. Well, I mean it's hard to assess because it's very unpredictable and we don't know how it's going to progress. However, I do think that he needs to learn from some of the mistakes of the past, the mistakes that we saw, um, you know, early on in the Trump administration, and not repeat them, you know, not uh you know. And Democrats yet and this isn't just Biden, this is Democrats at large.

Is to not you know, rush to close schools. I think that the school closures were disaster, the impacts of which are going to be felt for years and years and years in terms of kids, mental health, UM, economic impact on families, all of that. So to learn from the mistakes of the past. But to you know, one thing that I was hardened by was when the news of the mecrum UM variant came out. He responds it right away, and he was on top of it and

showed that his administration was taking it very seriously. That's not something that the Trump administration was doing, you know. But he's still gonna get punished, um for these things that are average to control because there is a lot of fatigue with with COVID and UM. That's gonna be a challenge for him. But as long as he shows decisive leadership and learns from the mistakes of the past. I think that's the best and most he can do. Well.

He does own COVID. It's unfortunate. COVID is not kind of politicians. When you're elected, hey, maybe something will be different. When nothing is different, they get mad at you. And there's no winning COVID on a political level if you're an incumbent because you're making people take castor oil. It doesn't go away overnight. COVID is not going to say Biden. Biden is going to endure COVID, but it's gonna create damage.

So the question is how does he paint the forward picture that's not about identity grievances, of what the Democratic Party is fighting for that will help your life other than a laundry list of programs. Biden was good in the campaign at being a regular guy with regular values who understood people who swing wrenches for a living, and that message has been lost about a month into his presidency.

Um because of the big megaphone of the progressives in the House, because COVID is something that frankly, it requires political pain to solve. UM if anything, and I've said this a lot on hacks on tap. I want Biden to start being much tougher calling out the unvaccinated Americans is unpatriotic, and beat the hell out of them. You know, it's the sixty forty advantage. Go on offense and at

least be a fighter. Right now, Biden is an observer, and observer presidents and times of crisis do not do well. So he's got nothing to lose. He's on a spiral now. They are going to lose the House, They're highly likely to lose the Senate. So if I were Biden, I'd fight like I have nothing to lose and be tough Delaware Joe for a while, because I think there's nowhere to go but up on this and quit releasing term papers about we found a by the gradable way to

ship the COVID for less admissions. You know, that's the democratic term paper approach. It's great in democratic primaries, it's great in the two counties of vote America vote Democrat in America. But the other three thousand counties it's a cultural thing, and they may respect his toughness if he starts showing it. Is another issue where Democrats feel like

they've got a sixty advantage of support for Roe v. Wade. UM, the decision that's coming from the Supreme Court, we think maybe in June of next year, smack in the middle of the mid terms, could overrule it. UM. Will that energize the Democratic base? Will that save Democrats from a catastrophic midterm result? Is there stuff the party could be

doing between now and then? Um? Yes. So. My my view on this for a very long time has always been that, you know, worst case scenario for Republicans is if they actually do get a Supreme Courts it that overtterms Roby Wade because they just want to run on this issue for decades, decades, decades and use it um you know, as you know, a mechanism for grievance within their own party. This allows us to sort of flip the script and do what Republicans have been doing for

decades and use this issue to motivate our base. Um. And there is even beyond the polling, I think that there is a even larger silent majority UM that is on the side of preserving Roby Wade, preserving abortion rights. If you look at um stays, for instance, states like South Dakota as conservative, socially conservative as they come. About a decade ago, they tried to do a ballot initiative to ban abortion, and everyone was like, well, of course

this is gonna pass. They're going to ban abortion. This is South Dakota. I worked in South Dakota, and I barely remember meeting any Democrats who at the doors would say, um, that I'm pro choice. And so I think that this will motivate not only Democrats, but you know, Republicans, moderate Republicans, Independence who see this as you know, a fundamental overreach. Um. And it's republicans worst nightmare. Um if this happens, I think, and it it really takes an issue off the table

for them, and it gives us a huge, huge motivating issue. Mike, you agree with that, uh, partially. First of all, if you have an angry letter based on what I'm about to say, send it to Brian Goldsmith Katie Curry podcast. The minor tragedy in this is that nobody sees the Supreme Court through the prism of constitutional law anymore. It's basically, will they give me what I want and I believe it or not, which is not the purpose of the court.

And Roe v. Wade is tricky Constitutional law. The Court basically tortured itself to find a way to please the majority of the country that was at least a reasonable argument constitutionally to create Roe v. Wade out. Politically, people don't want big changes in abortion law in most places. Remember the fight of Row is, should localities states make

their own abortion laws? There shouldn't be federalized. If it is overturned, it's it's going to be political rocket fuel for the Democrats in some places and in other places it won't be the suburbs, which are the key back and forth the likery you know against Trump. The Dems won them in two thousand and eighteen. In healthcare they won, and Trump on popularity in you know Biden, Trump was rejected in Virginia. They went back Republican. Uh so it

can happen. You don't get it for free by saying Trump and in In that world is going to be a mighty struggle between ideological fear of the Democrats. Tax and spend liberals bring us inflation, which Democrats roll their eyes on. But that is an old hit. The Republicans

know how to play it and it works. It's working now or a college educated pro choice voters who are attempted to vote against Biden and all those things, being horrified enough by the idea of fundamental changes in abortion rights, which by the way, won't happen in most suburban states. So it's a little bit of an abstract issue, but it's very powerful. And finally, you know, a hundred million dollars is going to show up from low dollar donors

for the Democrats. There it'll be it'll be huge. The problem is will be bigger than frustration with Biden in most places. No, and a few of those suburbs it could be we will see last point. The suburbs will have an impact on the House races, but it's really these key Senate races where it could make the difference where it could take the Democrats out of the holder in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, or Nevada. But anyway to land the other debate role will be a net plus

for the Dems. In the suburb it's overturned. But I'm not sure it's the Pana sea. You know, both parties have a problem. They now treat their base voters like swing voters, which means they retune their messaging only to appeal to voters they already have. Oh you gave me a perfect segue, Mike, by the way, speaking why I'm here, thank you. Speaking of Bass voters as swing voters. This is sort of a minor obsession of of Lizz's and mine. Um. Latinos Hispanic voters in the country, Um, which are a

critical part of the Democratic coalition. Barack Obama got about two thirds of them in Hillary performed magnificently among them. Biden saw a little bit of a dip among Latinos, particularly as we remember Mike in South Florida and in Texas, but he still got six of the Latino vote. Um, there's a pull out this morning. We're recording this on Wednesday. That is sending shock waves through a lot of the

political community. Yes, done by Biden's poster and Trump's polster together that finds for the first time in a generation, and that Hispanic voters are evenly split between the two parties, which could have profoundly negative Consequencescrats. Yeah. So, um, Liz, why don't we Let's let's first start by talking about the term latin X, and then let's talk about the

broader problem. I'm so I am so sick of all the ink that has been spelled spilled over this This goddamn word you know, UM and latin x is like the political equivalent of man splaining um. It is a bunch of political operatives, people sort of in the nonprofit industry,

pushing this term that Latino people themselves don't use. And I remember being on a campaign I'm not gonna say which campaign, and there was a contingent of staff who are demanding that we use the term latin X are Latino Staffers were like, you cannot use this term because we ourselves do not use this term um. And to me, it is just indicative of um uh an issue with Democrats, which is that we're seen as not caring about you know, people, UM,

that we're not in touch with people. And this bizarre obsession we have with this word when voters tell us over and over and over again not to use it, speaks to this sometimes condescending image of Democrats that you know, we know better that you know, that we're morally superior to people. Um um. But more broadly, can I get just more broadly about I think the issues with the Latino vote. I started to see UM to have real concerns in TwixT when Hillary's message to the Latino community

was just immigration, immigration, immigration. Um, Donald Trump is a racist, Uh, he wants to build a border ball And I've worked in Latino politics. I've worked with in Puerto Rican politics, mantic in politics up here in New York. But the Latino community is not a monolith, right. You've got Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, Mexican Americans, Venezuelans, et cetera. And so we cannot assume that every Latino voter cares about the same issues. But immigration is not even in the top three issues

for uh, for Latino voters. Yet still Democrats put it first and foremost when in all of our communications to Latino voters. And we've got to understand, um that if we want to win back Latino voters, we need to talk to them about the economy, about small businesses. Um. You know, the Latino community is was hit very, very hard by COVID, and I think we've got to speak

to them more on those those issues. And one last point, because I could go on about this forever, is um, we need to realize that while all liberals might be Democrats, not all democrats are liberals. And Hispanic Latino voters are tradition way more socially conservative, more and frankly more economically

conservative um than you know. And the people who work on campaigns, people like me and uh, we need to understand that because issues like defund the police, um, issues uh like the Green New Deal certainly did push away Latino voters UM in areas like the Rio Grand Valley, which is very dependent, which is very dependent. UM. Law enforcement provides a lot of jobs to oil and gas industry provides a lot of jobs, so and grant there. Um. You know. I don't use the phrase latin X. I

agree with Liz about it. I prefer the phrase American because it's back to the Republican thing of unified identities. Uh, the American identity, that's the pre Trump. That's a bit of the pre Trump repelic car of course, but look look what the I a rare but huge mistake. I watched the Biden campaign make and Brian you know about this.

I was very involved with Republican voters against Trump. We were people talk about the Lincoln Project, we are the grift free Yeah you you were involved, and we did a lot of work in Florida state I know very well from multiple governor and other campaigns for Jeb and others. And when they sent Kamala Harris to Miami, I thought, oh my god, they totally don't get it. They're going down there with a voter of color argument, when if you've worked Dade County politics like I have for twenty

five years, that is not the thing. Uh Hispanic huh of going to the oldies been voters down there, Americans of Hispanic heritage, Uh don't see themselves that way. They're more conservative, particularly as liszt as socially conservative. They're very aspirational. The index high for two wonderful things, creating their own

small businesses and enlisting in the military. And they have family experience, particularly in Miami, because the different Florida markets are different with dictatorships both in Venezuelan of course in Cuba, and Biden had Cuba trouble from before being connected to Obama. On that Biden was the one who needed to go. If you look at the Wall Street Journal poll multiple times, by the way, not send Kamala, who is a problem to build that coalition because she tends to be a

one note candidate. If you look at that Wall Street Journal poll. The real cut isn't Latino, Uh, non Latino, it's gender. And that's the big cut through almost all data now. And the other big cut is college educated. So the Democrats have to stop looking. And I'm sorry to be a broken record on this, but it's back to my point about the Democratic Party is too important

for the Democratic leadership. They need to talk to their own voters and understand that the sophisticates and the sociology view of what makes a Democratic party is not the political coalition that counts. And if they don't do that, the bad clash against all that stuff is not only going to scare swing voters in the suburbs back away,

it's gonna elect Trump again. Trump gets rocket fuel from grievance to the Democratic identity grievances and and it's crazy, but it's frustrating because I think the internal Democratic party politics are heavily weighted that way. And last thing, this is grumpy old campaign consultant hour here, and I'll shut up after up. But okay, I'm a politician, so and

so a false promise. No if I read about another Democratic campaign for staff revolt, because the twenty four year olds are unhappy that we're not using Latin X on the bumper stickers. No good high stakes campaign should spend a lot of time listening to twenty four year olds. Um, wait till they're thirty and they have experienced and listen a lot, you know. Yeah, And I gotta tell you know, Mike,

I was talking with someone about this earlier today. It is a problem, um that the Democratic campaigns are staffed by people who aren't representative most voters, like I include myself, and that I'm sitting here in my you know, duplex in the West Village with my Dartmouth diploma probably somewhere in one of my closets. And I'm very well aware

of that. And I think it's that's why it's important to um not to one have diversity of thought in these campaigns, but understand that we don't necessarily have all the answers. And I think the four year old stafford problem is an issue and it is sort of, I think at times pathetic that you do have these high profile campaigns sort of being held hostage by kids who are just fresh out of Oberlin College. When we come back more political issues. And yes, unfortunately the Donald Trump

of it all. Let's close with everyone's favorite topic, the end of democracy and Donald Trump. UM. There's a study

that got a lot of attention this week. UM that was referenced in a column on the Washington Post by Dana Millbank and a data analytics company combed through more than two hundred thousand articles from sixty five different news websites across the ideological spectrum UH to basically analyze whether stories were good stories, bad stories, or something in between for Joe Biden and then compare it to the coverage that Donald Trump got UH last year in and what

had found, amazingly enough, was that Biden's coverage was as bad as Trump's, and sometimes worse. And and Millbank described

it this way. He said in Trump presided over a worst in world pandemic response that caused hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths, held a super spreader event at the White House and got COVID nineteen himself, praised Q and ON adherents, and raised violent white supremacists, waged a racist campaign against Black Lives Matter demonstrators, attempted to discredit mail and voting, refused to accept his defeat in a free and fair election, leading eventually to the violence of January

six and causing tens of millions to accept the big lie, the worst of more than thirty thousand lies Donald Trump told an office. And yet Trump got press coverage as favorable as or better then Joe Biden is getting today. Sure, Biden's had his troubles with the Delta Varian, Afghanistan and inflation, but the economy is rebounding impressively. He's signed major legislation, He's restored some measure of decency, calm, and respect for democratic institutions end quote. So my question is what do

we do about this? Is the press just not equipped to handle an anti democratic, anti little d democratic, proto authoritarian outlier like Donald Trump? And is that enabling his comeback? Liz, let's start with you. Well, first of all, I'm always skeptical of these stories that quote these like media analytic things. It seems like it's always a sort of an advertisement

for them, and I'm not sure how accurate that is. UM. So I don't want to put too much credence in that I read the story, UM, but I think I get the overall sentiment here, UM And I honestly I have a really hard time believing that if you look at all the TV coverage, all the cable coverage, that the sentiment was more negative for Biden than for Trump.

Putting that aside, yeah, you know, I get data. Milbank's point that, um, you know, uh, Joe Biden stumbling over a word at a press conference or Kamala Harris using non bluetooth ear phones is not the same thing as Donald Trump, you know, whipping up his um supporters in a frenzy and getting them to believe to storm the capitol or to not accept the election result. And we shouldn't equate those two things. Um uh. But you know, it comes with the territory. Joe Biden, any any president

is going to get criticism in the press. Um. And so I think that interesting comming on the Biden administration to deal with it, um, and the press probably could be a little bit more responsible and how they handle it, how they handle Kevin McCarthy, how they handle these guys who go on the Sunday shows and still are unwilling to, um, you know, sack up and admit that Donald Trump lost the election. So the press could be a little tougher there.

But you know, I think getting criticized comes with the territory being president. And that's where I disagree a little bit with what Milbank had to say. Mike. The premise here is that the countries in this existential struggle not between two parties, but between sort of democratic self governance and an authoritarian alter native. Do you think that is correct? I think it's oversimplified. I think that I'm with Lizza mill big thing is a little specious. It's the term

paper thing again with the demigrants. Do oh, the media gave Trump a B and we gotta be minus. So the media's corrupt. How do we fix the media? That sounds pretty authoritarian to me right there? Um, And I don't know how they score this stuff. It is tricky. A lot of the Trump and fractions were worse on the existential scale, but they're also process. Liz is cats disagree with you, Mike, by the way, vocal Yeah. The cat's a big Elizabeth Warren supporter. And it sounds like

more trumpy and howling to me. I think set the cat of blaze. Uh so you know it. And both sides like to whine about their media coverage. The fact is, here's what the press likes. It's the old Roger Ailes thing. If your candidate cures cancer in the morning and falls into an orchestra pit in the afternoon, the story is

going to be falling into the orchestra pit. And Biden has had big, flashy breakthrough problems, the fleeing Calbool a k A. Saigon and seventy five visual images, very big inflation, price of gas at the pump, These new stickers I'm seeing all over gas pumps. Joe Biden did this pointing at the price. Um, those are meeting potato things. Well Trump generated and I was on board. I mean, I've hated Trump since I don't know where all these Johnny

come ladies. Ron was doing the governor New Jersey's campaigns and he was a huge problem in Atlantic City. But anyway, that Trump thing is one outrage after another to the kind of the intelligentsia. Now I'm an elitist, I care about the intelligentsia, um, But but I can understand how the turbulence of Biden covid he caught the Delta variant, which probably had equal media volume to the problems Trump had.

So I get the moral weighting that that Dana is working on their that Trump is more systemically outrageous and poisonous and toxic. But the fact that Biden is getting crampy pressed to the press is in the crampy press business. Uh. And you know, we know from psychological studies that a grievance story will get seven times the click of any other story, and they count those because they monetize them, particularly the cable news business. Don't get me started. So

what what do we do about it? Well, that these are the rules we have in the Democrats have to learn how to play effectively on them and get out of the narcissism of identity. That would be my first thing. The second thing is do we have fundamental lose democracy problems? Here is the premise of your question indicated. And I think the country is far too ornery and far too

well armed to fall into dictatorship. But I do believe we could be stuck in kind of a lost decade of woke stoppo intolerant stupidity on the left and thuggery and kind of a ashism light American style. USA Number one, I don't take vaccines. We just beat up a college professor in the parking lot for having fancy opinions about biology. We could fall into that, and we're we're tickling the whiskers of that now. And Trump is a big part of it because he's got He's become the the the

deity of this kind of church of stupidity. Now, I'm betting on the actuarial charts and some bad meat loaf make cure the problem in the short term. And I'm not sure there's anybody else who could fill that Trump void. But yeah, we could get to our own American style that is not a dictatorship, but our democracy will be paralyzed by stupidity and wokeism versus thuggish authoritarian vibe stuff. But does that mean the Congress is under arrest and Trump sent a GENERALISSMO outfit or any of that. I

don't believe that. And also remember the power of the state in the US UH to enforce anything is police organism the military, and our military is a citizens army, and they've taken off to the Constitution United States. I have some faith in that institution. If things go too far um to to UH to maintain UH constitutional order in the US. I don't know that I'm quite as optimistic as you are. Well, you're a democrat. It is a be on the term paper. You're going great or

there's an f uh for democracy right now. And I agree it's troubling, but maybe I'm more of an optimist. It's a Republican thing. I hope you're right. I hope you're right. I just I worry that the lesson that Trump learned last time is you gotta surround yourself purely with thugs and loyalists. That he doesn't care at all

about the laws of the norms of the institutions. The presidents have enormous power, and that one thing we learned over the course of the Trump presidency is that, um, a lot of the limits are kind of tradition rather than written into the law, and previous presidents wouldn't have crossed certain lines that Trump has no problem crossing. And the takeaway for him was that he wasn't aggressive enough, that he didn't crush dissent within what he calls the

deep state and among his opponents enough. And I think there's a a not insubstantial chance that he comes back. And and what happens if if God forbid, he well, he wins. No. Look, it is a fear in My advice to the Democrats is not to wring hands about it, but go nominate to Steve Bullock, now to Stacy Abrams for president. Why don't you beat him at the election with a strong candidate appeals to everybody, not just the

Democratic base. And what I was just gonna say, I had a little bit of pushback to you might on that is that when you're like, yes, does the squad get the lion's share of press attention? They do, because we know, as you said, what the press looks for. You know, I don't think the processories a left or right bias. They have a bias towards conflict, and the

squad gives them that. But you know, there, I think the Democratic Party has filled a lot more with and Mark Kelly's and UM the Center from Arizona, Colin Olvera, the Congressman from Dallas, UM and moderates and people who are much more in tuned with with Democrats. We shouldn't give people the impression that it's all just I mean, like Raphael Warnock and Georgia performed extraordinarily well, and I think so I think Mike maybe underestimating Stacy Abrams is

as a political figure. But anyway, I take your point about what the press focuses on and who the actual legislators are. Yeah, I think Trump starts out if he's nominated again, and I'm not locked into this camp that he's running and it's all over. But if he's nominated, the veritable that'll let Trump be defeated, as would be natural or not, is going to be the Democratic nominee who they choose, so the stakes couldn't be hired for the Dems. And I worry again, I think their rank

and file voters get it. I worry about the culture of the leadership in the Democratic Party. Yeah. I guess my thing is I think that Trump is a fundamentally lazy guy. Um, he's grifting, like I saw some numbers on how much he was raising off of that fundraising list, And if I had to make a prediction, it would be that he's just gonna try to bankrupt all of his supporters, run away with that money and not run again. Um,

but and probably wait till the last minute. So I don't necessarily I could be very wrong, but I I don't see him running again because again, I think he's a fundamentally lazy person who cares mostly about money, and he's got a perfect set up firm self right now. Well, I think there's some truth to that, but he is going to with the mind of a sixty five year old, cranky, racist,

high dollar private business donor. He's going to look at the Democratic opponent that will drive a lout of his calculus. So if it's somebody that looks like the Democratic base, he'll be encouraged. If it's somebody who looks more like Aden, he won't be That's my guess. A version of your take, which I pretty much agree with. Well, as they say on cable news, to be continued and we will see you go. You put a button on it. I did. I did ever so slightly um awkward, but still very good. Yeah,

thank you very much. In trouble, she'd better come back from St. Bard's whatever and reclaim the throne here. She's got competition, al right. Well, Murphy, Liz, thank you so much for doing this and we'll talk soon. Thank you, Thank you so thanks again to my guests, Mike Murphy and Liz Smith. Mike has his own amazing political podcast with David axel Rod and Robert Gibbs, which is called hacks on tap. You can find it on all your

favorite podcast purveyors. You can also find him on Twitter at Murphy Mike and find Liz on Twitter at Liz Smith. But here's the hatch. Liz is spelled l I S, not l I Z. I'm Brian Goldsmith. You can find me at goldsmith be on Twitter. Thank you so much for listening, and thank you Katie for having me on. I'm sure your listeners are going to be quite relieved to hear that you were on your way back. Oh and by the way, everyone, if you haven't, please register

to vote. You can't really participate in our politics without voting. Listening to the podcast isn't enough, so you can check with your state or you can go to vote dot gov. Thank you to both my guests, host Alison Roman and Brian Goldsmith for helping me out. But now it's time to pass the mic because I'm back, baby, and listeners, I have such a treat for you. I hope it's a treat. It was a treat for me to put it together. Next week, I'm sharing an intimate look at

my book tour, the highlights, the low lights. Actually, there weren't any special guests, and so much more that's next week on Next Question. Next Question with Katie Kurik is a production of iHeartMedia and Katie Couric Media. The executive producers Army, Katie Couric, and Courtney Litz. The supervising producer is Lauren Hansen. Associate producers Derek Clements, Adrianna Fasio, and Emily Pinto. The show is edited and mixed by Derrek Clements.

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