Stan Greenberg: Presidential Pollster

some of us he was. He was the top polster for President Bill Clinton, Al Gore in two thousand, Tony Blair in the u K. Nelson Mandela Israeli Prime Minister Edhud Barack. He's really had an amazing career, both as an academic and as a political strategist, and he has spent a lot of time recently talking to one time Democrats and Obama supporters who switched to back Donald Trump. Would you say he's a wise man who says only fools Russian? But Brian can't help alright, I'm getting a

little jealous. Actually, I think he's a fascinating guy and it was fun to talk to him about everything what happened in the two thousand and sixteen election, and most importantly, how people are feeling about Donald Trump these days, specifically people in Macomb County in Michigan. He really has his finger on the pulse of people who are white working class voters and how they're feeling about Donald Trump. Today.

We're also going to hear from a voter in Chicago, a lifelong Democrat who supported Obama who switched to Donald Trump last year. Find out what she thinks about how he's doing in office. And uh, we'll get to that in a little bit. But first here Stan Greenberg. Stan Greenberg, it is such a thrill to have you on our podcast, and I have to tell you my friend Brian Goldsmith is completely gegeging out right now. Why Brian, Because if you care about politics and polling, you know Stan is

a bit of an icon in those worlds. He's probably the most important progressive poster ever and he has some really interesting stuff to say about the voters who supported Donald Trump. So I'm really excited about this conversation. But stand before I'm with you, well, but before we talk about this latest focus group that you did in Macomb County, I just wanted to ask you quickly Stan, you have a very impressive CV, I must say, for somebody who is in this line of work, can you just tell

us briefly kind of how you got here. Well, it certainly wasn't part of any plan. And I always thought, you know, I was going to be a professor. I got my PhD. I began teaching very early at you know, at Yale. You know, I was very active politically, but my academic life was separate, um, you know, from my you know, political you know work. So I began studying what was happening in poor neighborhoods and working people, you know,

at at an early end, at early point. And gerally broke through in politics with the study you did in of the so called Reagan Democrats. I mean, some people have given you credit for inventing that term, but these were people who historically had voted for Jack Kennedy, for Lyndon Johnson, even for Jimmy Carter, and they broke for Ronald Reagan. And you were sent there to investigate why and how that happened. And can you tell us a

little bit about what you learned then? In I was while I was still teaching a Gale Um, I was asked by the U a W and the Michigan Democratic Party try to understand the Reagan Democrats starting in McComb County, and McComb County was a one of the most democratic, unionized Catholic counties that have voted overwhelmingly for John Kennedy UM, but cast a very big vote for Ronald Reagan and

really shattered UM for the North. A lot of illusions UM about where the party stand and how they'll be shaped in the future and stand in a way, was this election like deja vu all over again? Yeah, I wrote, I wrote. I wrote a piece after you know, you know, Obama's election in which I basically said, goodbye Macomb County, you know, because we have this first African American president who carried McComb County. And so if that was true,

it's it's obviously time to move on. Particularly if you look in Oakland County, which was the affluent suburb next door, you wish it was an even much bigger majority for or Democrats. And so the signal was We've done a lot to win, you know, to win these kinds of voters. But you know, but if you look at what's happening in the most affluent and best educated parts of the country.

Democrats are building up bigger and bigger majorities. They are also becoming more diverse, you know, more you know, immigrant

and ethnic as well. UM in the future lies there. Well, Macomb had a you know, made its point now because the margin in MacComb in two thousand and sixteen was by far bigger than the statewide margin that Trump won UM and part of him winning and this say is something really interesting about our politics more broadly, because you have working class Macomb County, Michigan, which is historically Democratic,

and that went for Trump by almost twelve points. And then, as you mentioned next story, you've got more upscale, business oriented Oakland County, which is historically Republican, and that went for Hillary by eight. And so you've had almost this flip in our politics where the the kind of the auto executives are now voting Democratic and the former line workers are voting Republican. Yeah, which is why I decided to go back to Macomb and all and to listen

to these voters. The I decided we can organize for you know, groups with all Trump voters, all were working class white Trump voters UM in an environment where they would be comfortable speaking about their lives, you know, and their values and uh and you know, and try to make sure they get hurt again. I know. It's very clear that they have not second guess that vote. That very strong, you know reasons and you know why they cast the vote for Donald Trump, you know, but they

feel under assault. They trust him, you know, but they you know, they feel the country, um is so polarized that the opponents have not accepted the election results. Give him a chance is almost the first thing, you know, out of out of their mouth. And they still think we're in a period where he's trying to govern and they feel like they're under assault in their own families, in their own commun reduce their own kids. Well, let's drill down a little stand on how you conducted these

focus groups. You conducted four and all? Is that right? Um? I did? I did? And the focus group that worked is homogeneous. It's comfortable and you know, and people feel revealing dynamics that they would not otherwise do. It's actually you know, you know how I started initially when I did the Macomb focus herps because I would have only union people, only men, you know, working class, uh, you know, are non union and and them feeling free to talk

about it. And at that point that was really that was you know, Republicans had been doing focused but this was kind of new UM, and so I was kind of inventing that methodology, you know at that time. But I but I almost had to like go back and say start over, you know, the you know, I listened to the focus groups and other people are doing and

they're testing different attacks on Trump. You know what, these voters really do want to be heard, and they do have reasons why they voted the way they did, and so I thought it was really important to listen to them, not fight them, you know, let them, you know, express their views on why UM, and then we can get to the question of, you know, how you can begin

to win them back. And I'm so curious to hear your views on the differences and similarities between these Macomb County voters thirty years ago and today, because thirty years ago you wrote at length about how they believe Democrats were serving special interests. UM. There was a heavy racial component to the way that they had felt alienated from the National Democratic Party. They felt like it was out of step with their cultural values that welfare money was

going to other people, not them. Were these some of the same motivations behind their support for Trump and their their feelings of alienation from the establishment or was there something different happening? Now? Yeah, I mean something very different. First of all, what not what's not different is their hostility of the establishment, hostility to be able empower both

corporate power and political power. They're very much focused on political leaders who have sold them out, you know, for special interests, cut bad trade deals for America while their jobs, you know, we're lost. And so there's a commonality to the kind of political economic argument that no one is recognizing it, and you know, and fighting that race was just so central. Detroit was central. Um the black politicians, you know that they talked about who were dominant in

in politics in Michigan. They would talk about how you know, they used their power over with Michigan government in America, uh, the U. S government, you know, to make government work for them. Affirmative Action was you know, aimed at you know, at them. They paid a real prices um they believed um for you know, government, you know, policy. And so race was absolutely central. So if race was central, then

what is central now? Stan immigration and Islam. Immigration, as you recall, was the number one issue that the first issue that Trump ran on, and I was focused on Mexicans, and but he was focused on an undocumented and you know, not having control your borders, citizens, not having preference over non citizens. What he was doing, what Trump was doing and saying this was his central issue, and he was the only one willing to speak about it, both in

the primary and in the general. So I think part of what you're saying is politics in Macomb County is still about us versus them. Them is just no longer African Americans. It's it's Muslims, it's immigrants who are documented or undocumented. And the Democrats need to come up with a message on immigration that resonates with working class people

who feel like they've lost out. And I want to just interject because I read an interesting column stand and I think Brian, you and I discussed it that was in the New York Times that said the mistake for Democrats and liberal Democrats is to say all immigration is good. Remember Brian, we talked about that column and that it's much more complex and for them not to say we have to tackle this issue one way or another. They do that at their peril. Do you agree with that stand? Yes,

I agree. I agree that Democrats have to have to have a perspective on immigration because we, in fact our advocates of immigration, people are very comfortable with a system of comprehensive reform that that's managed and has controls and demands responsibility that people get in the queue they learn English that in that context, they are willing to support immigration that increases immigration. Democrats are going to be for immigration. We think it's a better country. We believe in a

multicultural country. We believe in finding unity out of diversity. But as you said, stand not completely unfettered with some kind of structure, some kind of responsibility, some kind of system in place. Yes, and they, I mean they people are very open to reform that increases immigration, but in a context where they are rules and we're and we're legal, immigrants have precedence over you know, illegal citizens over non citizens. Um. And that's a normal thing to want and expect in

any society. But this gets to a bigger issue about the difference between perception and reality, because the reality is that immigration and trade two of the real bugaboos for the voters you studied have been positives for this country if you look at all of the data on income and jobs, but they're perceived as very negative by a

lot of voters who are critical and presidential elections. And you know, one of the things that struck me about the report you wrote is that you know, these voters, you said, except Trump's version of the news and the facts. And so you know, on the one end, you've got real news and real facts, you have fake news and fake facts, and it seems like the latter are winning out. Well, look, there is a there is a reality um that these

voters that America's dealing with. I mean, we have, you know, increasingly, you know, farm population thirty seven pers in New York City is far and born. I think you know, it's about thirty five percent of California's you know is far is farign Born. And all those numbers are growing. There's a huge growth in migration globally, one in five of migrants globally or in the United States. There is a

big growth of farm population and it's change. Asian population has grown dramatically as well, obviously, as well as Hispanic and there is a you know, it's part of what America is and if we are actually going to get the most out of it and be economically competitive, we also have to manage it. And by the way, when we presented to this focus group with Coca colad you know, in which they had America the Beautiful sung you know, in multiple languages, because we use that as a you know,

a test for sassacious guys. Lasting gu about half kind of accepted it with you know that, you know the and we're comfortable with it. You know, some I'm saying, that's the way it should be. We're gonna be unified, We're you know the so you know so that Now, look, there's some that aren't going to be. But there's a you know, a significant number that you know, they're living in America that is amority majority. I know that. Yeah, I know that ad you're referring to. And it's sort

of a celebration of pluralism. And what you're saying is some of the folks you were talking to celebrated it, but plenty of them didn't and felt that this pluralism quote unquote is threatening to the country and to its values. Let's remember the countrywide, you know, about two to one people believe immigrants are helpful to the country, not that they create a heavy burden on jobs and public services.

And by the way, you need to cut across race on this because it's you know, lot of African American groups that I do. There's you know, there's concern about you know, immigration as well. Don't assume it's only white working class voters, you know, who are focused on this. This has been such a tumultuous period. It seems to me if you listen to the news, radio, television, you read your information online. But most accounts indicate that Donald

Trump has had a very tough few weeks. Russia, wire tapping his tweets, healthcare reform, alienating allies, striking deals with companies, turmoil and the White House. Uh, you know, a lot of infighting, leaks, unprecedented leaks happening. But these voters, um, it doesn't seem to be affecting them because there's no

buyer's remorse, is there. Well, look, let's let's accept that it's two months into this, even as tumultuos, as crazy as this period is, you know, it's still two months and they look, they think there's a civil war in the country. They think that people that are protesting, you know, in the streets, you know, or just to have not accepted the election. And so they still think that they

are trying to stop him from governing successfully. And they're not convinced Republicans and Congress are really for him either. They feel in casting their vote for Trump, they were voting for huge change. It was a major slap in the face at the establishment of both parties, and they're looking for big, big, big change. They could be disillusioned, you know, but not now. Certainly. When I did these groups, you know, a few weeks ago, this you know, this

is still playing out in their minds. And my guess is when we go out and listen to voters and again in the next couple of weeks, that will still be true. You know, that they are defending the you know, their vote for Trump. So I think this will erode it in time, but not now. And this goes to an interesting question stand about how they're going to judge President Trump moving forward. That is, does he actually need to deliver for them personally in order to be perceived

as successful by them? You know, I actually do think it needs to deliver. I mean, I don't think they were faked into vote voting for Trump. They think he's a strong leader, they think he'll go after the establishment. But i've you know, but there's some evidence here that if in fact, the health care law you know, ends up making I mean they're I mean they're counting health their premiums, they're deductibles to the penny, and they go

around the room. I mean, they know what their healthcare costs, what their insurance cost they they're they're not going to be fooled by health care plan you know that raises their deductibles. You know, they think he's gonna make health care, their insurance both better and cheaper and more affordable. And if that doesn't happen, Stan, I thought it was interesting

that your reports said they would blame Congress, not Donald Trump. Well, they blame Congress if if nothing happens, I think if you know the you know, I think there, yes, I think the reason to think that they will blame Congress because they you know, they we put pictures of Ryan and McConnell there for them to look at it, and they're really quite hostile to them, and they know they you know, that the establishment didn't support him, and so I think they have a ready interpretation for stuff not

getting done. But I don't think that's the same thing as if they actually passed this Ryan bill in the House. Once you've passed that and he's fought for it, I think maybe I think he owns the specifics of it in very different ways. Obviously, if it were to be enacted. If in fact, the healthcare replacement is what Donald Trump has supported and ultimately it hurts those voters rather than helps them, do you think they'll have a change of

heart about him specifically? Yes, I do, And I keep in mind, these are if you look at the voters who came out for you know, Trump, they are about half of them are you know, we're ad voted for Obama, but about half of them hadn't voted in the in the twelve presidential election. So he brought out people that were new voters. Not a new registrants, but you know,

but a lot of new voters. You know that he really got their attention, you know, particularly in the rust belt where he promised him change on trade and immigrate and other things and and and repealing and replacing the Affordable care at I think that, you know, they're more likely to not vote than and certainly in the off year.

You know, it's gonna be I think challenging for Republicans to get these voters to come vote, to support the Republican members of Congress, you know, to make sure they can stay there, you know, doing Trump's agenda, because they

don't think they're with him on his agenda. They don't like them, they don't they view them as part of the establishment who fought you know, fought him so so I think the first effect, you know, is to pullback from the Republicans in Congress, which hurts in the midterms.

The second effect is just to disengage, you know, because they were you know, when they began to see the negatives that we were testing, you could you know, I felt almost I felt badly having presented them because some of them got really angry, saying that means they're not going to be any change. You know, if this is true, there's not going to be any change, and they won't change.

We're gonna take quick break and when we come back, we're actually going to hear from a voter in Chicago who was a staunch Democrat her entire life and jump ship for this election and is very passionate about Donald Trump, and stand will get your reaction to her feelings. That's right after this, we're back with Polster Extraordinaire Stan Greenberg. Do you like that title? Is that what your cards are? Stand Change, I'll change my website. Well, let's talk to

someone who supported Donald Trump in the election. Her name is Janet Saulisbury. She's from Chicago. She is white, she's a single mom, and she's not the classic rural, white working class voter. But she has a lot to say about weis she switched from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Janet, are you on the line. I'm here, nice to talk to you. Thank you so much for spending some time with us on our podcast. Tell us about why you decided to vote for Donald Trump and why you still

support him. Um, you know, it was I've been a lifelong Democrat, grew up in an Irish Democratic Catholic family. Um,

so it was a very very difficult decision. But it was actually summer when I was at a reunion with my college friends, and it was right when Trump had come down the escalator and everybody was just kind of like making a joke about it, and it sort of just to think, you know, and um, the more and more people like ruled him out, I started listening a little bit more to him and then saw the whole Bernie Sanders Hillary thing go on. And I'm probably in

the category of what woman call exasperated. Um and so yeah, it was. It was exasperation. I felt nobody's listening to me, nobody's trying to reach out to me and my concerns. Um. And so I just it was a shaker. So it was let's shake it up because what we're doing isn't working. And one of the things you were most concerned about was your health care. Oh absolutely, Um. I worked for

a very small family health company. UM. So we don't you know, our health plans change year to year, and I'm lucky that I do have some employee contribution to my health care, but I still pay a fair amount um. And I have a lot of I have a couple of friends who are like in business, other women in the business for themselves and just the way that their

costs have been skyrocketing the last three years. UM. And nobody was willing to admit that Obamacare are Affordable Health Care Act isn't working and it needs to be fixed, you know. And and and then then one day when Bill Clinton stood up and I saw it on the news and he said, it's not working. The deductibles are skyrocking, the premiums are skyrocking. I thought, finally, finally someone's you know,

hearing what's going on. So hey, Janet, I'm I'm Brian and Katie's co host, and I was just curious, how do you think about the way the media is covering President Trump right now? Um? You know, I have a hard time. I'm kind of a news junkie. UM, so I used to watch a lot of it. I'm just having a hard time even watching it because I just

think it's so unfair. Um. You know, they're just like running after the latest Twitter for the latest thing, and just I just want to say, chill, just step back, and UM, I think it's just making it even more divisive than ever. So I'm very frustrated with that. Stan, is that how a lot of your folks you talked to him Macomb County felt God And you know, indeed, I mean the same. I think the same level kind

of frustration with the with mainstream news. And it's not likely they're going to other news it's more of a you know, turn it off, come on, but they I think it's I think it's exactly capture is exactly right, which is people have not settled. The election is a civil war going out there, you know, give him a chance.

Ll Do you have anything you'd like to ask Janet stan Well, what I'm actually focused on is, you know, if you're watching what's happening now on healthcare, you know, given how important healthcare was, you know, to your vote, and the costs and high deductibles, which is exactly what people were struggling with, and the Yeah, I absolutely am watching that, um. But I am turning it off. A lot of other times when I hear Russia, I turn it off, um, because that's just to me, that's a distraction.

That's just throwing a firecracker up in the air and making everybody look over there. But I am watching the healthcare. I am concerned about what I've heard so far about I mean, I'm fifty eight years old and I'm you know, like how people in my age group are come out on the short end of the stick. But I haven't seen a lot of specifics, and maybe I haven't searched them out UM, yeah, I am concerned, and that's I

am definitely watching that with a very close eye. And if you don't like a health care plan that Donald Trump is supporting, do you think that will be something Janet that will change your mind or will you stick with him on other issues? UM? I'm kind of a wait and see to give it time. UM. I keep looking at what was the alternative, and I think the alternative would have been gridlock too, But you know, I don't know. I'll just have to see what I want

to see this fleshed out a little bit more. Jenny, Can I ask you a question about the budget that President Trump put out recently. I'm not sure if you follow the news on this, but a lot of the cut, a lot of the cuts in that budget, you know, affect Trump voters. There are cuts and after school programs and counter terror programs and rural development and job training. You know, it's not just the National Endowment for the Arts and foreign aid and traditional areas that m Republicans

go after. And so I was curious whether that budget seemed like a series of good ideas to you or did it cause you to question at all your support for the president? Um? I frankly, I haven't heard a lot about it. I mean, unfortunately, I think you know, again, this is where I kind of like get like the media, because I'm I'm hearing is, you know, sesame streets out and um, different things like that. I have a nineteen year old son, so sesame street being out really doesn't

like play highly into my verdiculous. But then I hear things about like meals on wheels, and I know so many people. I mean, my mom, you know, God rest her so but when she was like she used to help deliver her wheels on meals or meals on wheels, and I know that that's like like more than just providing food to people, it's also you know, giving them a lifeline of support. So those types of things concerned me. I mean, I'm not like a conservative Republican. I've always

been more of a moderate Democrat. Um, So I think there needs to be some entitlements, um, but those types of things to concern me. I wanted to ask one last question because Brian stan and I Janet we're talking about this. It seems to me for the past week and a half or so, since there was a Twitter

storm about President Obama, wire tapping Trump tower. The media has been very, very focused on that allegation, and I'm curious if allegations like those and other things are not proven true or don't have any basis in fact, would that change your opinion of Donald Trump? Or is it just not significant enough for you? This is not significant to me. I mean, that's just again a distraction, Um, I kind of you know, kind of operating the world

that assume every email could be read, assume everything. So I, um, it's just not a big deal to me, And I think that I just want them to get to work. I voted for Trump as a wake up call. I thought it would be a wake up hall for both the Democrats and Republicans to get their act together. And there's still little children fighting over the sand box. So well, I think stan is Janet pretty representative of the voters with whom you spoke. I think she looks these people.

I mean, and I appreciate Janet being so frank about it. They're at the edge economically, they're you know, they're they're struggling there, and they're angry about a politicians and politics that just doesn't listen to them, hasn't listened to them, you know, in years and finally someone has spoken to it. And there are issues that are really central and healthware you know is you know, is one of them, and

then it raised it. It was a critical piece and maybe the dominant piece, you know, in terms of what people raised on their own terms of you know, why they voted the way and they they're watching. I believe they're watching what's happening there. I think they see the other stuff. I mean, first of all, they trust him on interpreting you know, you know, events and facts and what news is right and what facts we should trust.

They think so much of this is about the nine him, the opportunity to bring change um and not accepting the election result. And so I think it's probably being interpreted in that context, even though I understand that you know, you're accusing someone of a of a felony is an extraordinary thing. But I think for voters, it's what's happening on bringing American jobs, what's doing done for my healthcare?

And what are we doing to change this corrupt in a in a grid locked system which doesn't work for working people? Well, Janet, does that sound about right to you? That pretty much? Well, we so appreciate you talking to us on the phone and giving us your views. I I so appreciate your perspective and it was really nice to talk to you. Thank you, Janet, thank you, thank you. To stand before we leave this topic, I really wanted to talk about your views on what went wrong for

Hillary Clinton, inten why she lost the election. And I know that you wrote in this memo it you thought that her message was too sort of satisfied with the status quo about building on progress rather than delivering a new economic agenda for swing voters. Can you tell me a little bit about what you think she should have

done as opposed to what she actually did. Well, I mean, look, there was tactical and strategic malpractice, you know what, every which I've written about an others have written about, and you just you just want to strangle them when you whenever you think about the consequences of of the things

they got wrong. But at the heart of it, she I think maybe overlearned, you know, the lessons of two thousand where they think Gore distanced himself from Clinton and cost you know, the election in their view and her And incidentally, you were the senior strategist to that campaign at the end, or the Polster to the campaign at the end. Uh the but the they were so determined not to have any gap between herself, UM, and the president. I think that was important as a primary strategy in

terms of winning the nomination. But that's what she believes. She thought it was a successful you know president and his you know, his message to the country as the country is doing well, we're moving in the right direction, you know, build on the progress, um. And you know, at critical points she mostly identified with that, and that's

how she closed the election. And you know, you can't listen to you know, Jenny, you can't listen to the voices in Chicago or Macomb County without knowing this country desperately want to change. I didn't want to just build on the progress that you know, for most people meeting incomes below where it was in two thousand and eight. You know, they still think about TARP as a corrupt deal in which the political class took care of themselves, you know, and not working people, not the you know,

struggling working people in the country. UM. And you know she in the convention when she by the way, when she united with Sanders and uh, you know, and Warren at the convention and her convention speech. In the debates, she actually she adopted a bold economic change agenda. UM. That won her very strong support, and that was her strong Those were the points in which she was viewed most strongly and had her biggest lead. UM. But you know,

after the debates, she never mentioned the economy again. She never talked about what she was gonna do with the country. She never talked about change. UM. It was more about how Trump was unfit to be president. Unfit UM not not the right temperament, not the right experience. Is the fact it was offending different groups. They purposely did not

attack him or just qualify him. UM on screwing small businesses and workers, using Chinese steel, musing you know, undocumented workers, all of the kind of attacks that would undermine him as being a job creator, and on the economy, they purposely did not do those. I saw some of those ads though, stand that said Donald Trump, you know, fixed his golf course up or his golf club, whatever it's called, and never paid the employees that did it. I saw

a lot of ads about that. Um. Not it was it wasn't how either their campaign or the or the outside super practical. Closed. All their ads were about um, you know, temperament. The way he treated other people was language, why women, That was the whole close. Maybe that was early. And also if you look at also the President's closed in the final two weekends, which was incomes are up, poverties down, We've created millions of jobs. Build on the progress.

She'll finish the jump. It seems to me though she was a bit between a rock and a hard place, because people want to change, but she had to associate herself with Barack Obama, hoping that the same people who voted for him would come out and vote for her her, so she couldn't really distance herself from him. And yet, as she said, the overwhelming sentiment among many voters was

throw the bumps out, let's start over. You're absolutely right in terms of how conflicted she was, but she she created a campaign that had all of Obama's consultants um and which was which was self conscious, was to be as close as possible to Obama. He had a very high, you know, job approval at the end, and what you you know, would have thought, would you know it would translate you know into you know, strong vote. I'm sure

she expected to win. Everyone else expected her to win in part because of the state of the economy overall approval. But you know, underneath the not just underneath, you know, had a huge majority saying the country needed, you know, big change. And these voters that went for Trump, I wanted big change, and a lot of voters pulled away

from her at the end in the last week. I mean, if you look at the data and the exit polls that our own polls was in the last week that a lot of these working class voters pulled back from her, uh and moved to Trump when she did not offer anything on the economy at the end. It was very polish. It was difficult, obviously, you know, given we're you know, the issues you raised, but it was very winnable and the country needed that. She needed that kind of endate.

And what do you say to Democrats who just blamed James Comy for the result? Not very helpful. I mean, look, I mean, I'm look, there's no doubt that she would would be president but for Comy and what the FBI did in those weeks, there's no doubt at all that but for Comy, she would be president today. I believe that. But that doesn't but that, but but campaign's campaign's face

you know, you know, October surprises face huge issues. A focused campaign has a direction as a mission is giving is telling people where they want to take the country, is telling the is making a choice between the candidates that is compelling, that gets you to be able to win in the key states at the end um, they aren't giving that kind of central direction and mission and vision that allowed people to look past the other pieces

of the hacking in the combing. And so while it's true that they had an enormous impact, and I think decisive impact, that doesn't mean you lose. You still have a You still need to give people a reason to vote for you and a choice, which they didn't do ultimately, So Stan, let's close our conversation by talking about the future and what Democrats should do now. And this kind

of takes me back to Macomb County. Are white working class Midwesterners really the future of the party or should Democrats, as some have argued, turned to the sun belt because I mean they point to stuff like, you know, Hillary only lost Arizona by three and a half and she lost Ohio by eight. You know, I've written a book about them called America send you know that talks about these trends, and these trends are accelerating. You know, everything

we're talking about is accelerating. That is the concentration of the GDP, you know in the metro and the metro areas. You know, the growing farm population, all of these trends are accelerating. Growing diversity, multiculturalism in this you know, in the cities. All these things are the future. There's no doubt. Millennials are increasing, you know, you know, part of the population, and any you know, democratic strategy has to embrace you know,

that majority. But there's two pieces of that. Those voters themselves are also struggling economically. We're not if you look at millennials and and and being weighed down, you know, by debt. If you look at the parts of our base, the working class parts of our base included unmarried with single women who are quarter of the electorate, you know, they are struggling economically, and they're looking for Democrats to have an economic message and to be doing addressing issues

that matter to them. So I don't I think it's a false choice. There was I embrace the New America. And that's where you know, that's where we're gonna you know, build our majority, but we don't get them, we don't maxim mize our support even there unless we understand what's happening to working people, you know, black, white, you know, brown. You know, this is a you know, a broad problem you know that's still you know that runs through this

country and they are they do feel forgotten. And so part of Democrats winning is also being seen to recognize that working people you know, are you know, are you know, are struggling And this is a we are fifty states now there are a lot of Southern states which we aren't going to win. But this is a you know, a constitutional system, and would you have lots of states, would you like senators and do reapportionment in which rural areas and and and and small town areas play a

big part in those states. And you can't win in America, you can't govern in America unless you both embrace the new America but also find ways to really represent working Americans who feel unrepresented. Do you think stand the secret sauce for politicians of the future will be understanding this changing, rapidly changing job market, how people can earn a living and how they're going to move from manufacturing to a different kind of economy. Yeah, I do. I don't know

if it's a secret. I don't know if it's a secret sauce. But you're you're right to raise it. And so Democrats, I think, do have an opportunity help because I don't I'm not sure what Trump is real. You know, I know he's talking. You know, he'll badge your companies

into building plants supposedly, you know, in America. But the question is are there really going to be you know, mind coal mines, you know, reopening you know under Trump, how much auto employment is going to come in these new factories a trivial amount if you look at the projective job growth in manufacturing, you know, even with Trump's you know scenario. And so the bigger opportunity for progressives

is recognized that Trump is not real. He's not real on trade, He hasn't you know, he didn't do what he said he would do in currency manipulation. Trade barriers are not the answer. Tariffs are not the answer, you know, you know, going forward. So I think I think we're gonna find that the Republicans that maybe even Trump, are pretty empty in the end when it comes to how you address these issues. And I do think then it will turn to Democrats, um and I think this is

a real opportunity. I don't want to have Donald Trump as present for years to get that opportunity, you know, But think about had she won and what a struggle that would have been in office and what the off

year and twenty elections would look like. I actually think you are going to have both an eighteen and twenty in particular, a chance for Democrats to really be pretty bold and real about how you really do have a prosperity that you know, raises all you know, all ships, you know, not the kind of prosperity that Trump is talking about. And stand there's obviously a big debate within the Democratic Party about what the message ought to be going forward. You've had a lot of praise about the

Warren Sanders wing of the party. You wrote in your memo that that's the kind of change the voters are hungry for. But Democrats, as you know, are increasingly dependent on college educated professional voters in the suburbs and metropolitan areas. And are you concerned that the Democrats are going to move too far to the left and alienate voters that

that the party now needs. Well, will that be interesting? Look, I think this is a Uh the problem you're talking about is is one that comes from riches of opportunity because you have an increasingly diverse American and and Donald Trump is not going to you know, change change that, and and many of those look to a Democratic party that's open to you know, multiculturalism, um, and a kind

of economic dynamism which riches you know everyone. Um. It also includes the affluent suburbs, which are voting increasingly Democratic, not just in this election but over time. But also it has to include a lot of working people, a lot of people in our base, you know, our work people. It was not you know. The what we have to recognize is that a majority of whites art without a four year degree. They pulled back under the Obama presidency. And part of the deal has to be you know,

winning those voters. Otherwise you can't win you know, across the country. Uh. And even can't be assured of the kind of electrical electric college majority, you know, the landslide they would like to achieve. But can Democrats win those voters without alienating the more moderate professional voters that they've increasingly come to rely upon. I'm skeptical that that that is that big a trade off. Bernie Senators was very strong in the in the primary, mainly because he made

reform his central peace. Uh that he you know, he said he was going to clean up politics. If he said it was one policy that he would address, it would be going after money and you know, money and politics, because that's what corrupts it. That is like a point of entry for everyone in the Democrat coalition. You gotta clean up money in politics. You gotta reform politics. And so I think there's a reform agenda um that you know that you know carries uh, you know across It

is true the college educators are more pro trade. But when you get to a whole variety of other policies, you know, including education, job training, investment, and infrastructure. UM, I don't think it's such a such a trade off. I'd be surprised, you know, if those who are running from that wing you know, of the party, um, you know, aren't able to reach voters across the primary elector Well.

I think one thing is certain. Stand these are fascinating times, and I think unsettling times for Americans all across the political spectrum because the country is so divided, and it will be really interesting to see how this all shakes out and what's going to happen in Maybe you'll come back and do our podcast. I promise, I promise. After the after the landslide, old reformists win for Democrats are now going to be under pressure to deliver. Stan. Thank

you so much. Brian. Would you like to whisper sweet nothings to your friends Dan, because as I said at one point, you, Bryan and Stan, you need to get away. It's so excited about that. She gives me more abuse for respecting your work over the years. It's really you know, she's created a hostile work environment. I have to say, we have to talk about this on the side. Yeah, yeah, that's a different conversation. Thank you so much for coming

on the show as usual. A huge thank you to Giana Palmer for producing our show and for editing the hell out of this one. By the way, also to Zack diner Stein not Dak zeiner Stein, Zack diner Stein for mixing and engineering, and to Ryan Connor for engineering assistance in l A and Dave Shaw for his help in Washington, d C. And thank as always to our social media maven Alison Bresnik, and to Emily Bena for her part in producing the show. Thanks to our fantastic

intern Nora Richie and Mark Phillips. Thank you for our fantastic theme music. I know that Katie sings it in the shower. I love it. I'm going to buy the CD. Do they still make c ds? You can buy it on iTunes or something. Katie Currik, Mitch Simul and I are the executive producers and we're not just saying this, folks. We really do love hearing from you. And remember you can also email us at comments at correct podcast dot com be nice, or you can find me on social

media to be nice there as well. I'm Katie Curic on Twitter and Instagram and Katie dot Kuric on Snapchat. For the four people who are interested, I am at Goldsmith Be on Twitter. And best of all, you can rate and review the show on iTunes. We really appreciate your feedback and uh we'll talk to you next time. Bye everyone, Bye, Brian, Bye on Cotten. Move to w U