Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda have agreed to bring an end to conflict in the Eastern Congo, where millions of people have died and multitudes have been displaced over the past three decades.
Today the violence and destruction comes to an end and the entire region begins a new chapter of hope and opportunity, harmony, prosperity and peace.
The US broker deal aims to bring a halt to fighting, and the countries have committed to work together to develop the natural resources that lie along their shared border.
If you stay on board, I think there are so many perspectives that we can transform our partnerships through and that can usher in an era of prosperity, of growth, and of shared bilateral relationships.
Because this is a very rich region with the cross border trade with thes, with the natural wealth.
So with the.
US standing by side by side to be the one and DRC, we believe that we will achieve a long time peace.
On today's podcast, we'll look at how this deal came about and find out whether it has a chance of succeeding against a long standing atmosphere of distrust between the neighbors. I'm Jennifer's Abasajap and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week from the continent driving the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining me to help unpack this deal is our Congo reporter Michael Cavanaugh. Michael, thank you so much
for coming on the podcast today. It's so nice to speak with you because you have been in and out of Congo for quite some time, so I've been wanting to dissect this with you for quite a while.
How are you doing good. Thanks, It's an exciting moment in Congress history.
We all, yeah, we all hope that that's a good place to start. Let's just start maybe with the conflict itself. This as many people who've been listening to the podcast maybe do or don't know, this conflict has been going on for decades. Maybe you can take us back to the genesis of the conflict.
Really sure, it's a really complicated conflict, which is one of the reasons why it's persisted for so long.
Right, and you know we're talking today.
Mostly about Rwanda and Congo, so we can trace the origins of that conflict back to the nineteen ninety four genocide in Rwanda.
There was a civil.
War going on in Rwanda that turned into a genocide in nineteen ninety four against the Rwandan Tutsi population, the minority population.
More than eight hundred thousand.
Maybe even more than a million Tutsis and moderate Hujoos were killed during that time. The perpetrators of the genocide led across the border into eastern Congo, and that completely destabilized eastern Congo and it's really been destabilized ever since. It turned into a civil war in Congo that overthrew the dictator at the time, and it turned into wars between Rwanda and Uganda, which is also a neighbor and Congo.
And over the years, Rwanda has continued to support proxy rebel groups, armed groups in Eastern Congo, it says, to protect itself and to continue to fight some of the remnants of those perpetrators of the genocide, or people at least with links to the perpetrators of the genocide. So, I mean, that's really the origin of the conflict we're seeing today. That, of course, it's also linked to a lot of other conflicts in the region and the natural resources and political power and things like that.
And Michael, you just brought up a number of different other countries and maybe proxies that are potentially involved in the fighting. Can you just outline who are the significant players maybe that are involved that you think would be helpful for listeners to know about.
I mean, in some ways, you could talk about the Congo conflict as involved in many many countries in the world. Lots of different countries have had stakes over the years, have tried to intervene through UN peacekeeping missions, through other deployment of military, local African nations that have deployed local military. But really, you know, I think the most important thing to think about are the neighboring countries right of this region which is called the Great Lakes Region, and there
you have Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and Congo. We'll just focus on them. And Eastern Congo, as I said, has been destabilized and because of that, there are a lot of more than a hundred rebel groups, armed groups, I should say, are active in that region. And again they're fighting over ethnicity and power and local resources. But some of them are also rebel groups that are opposing the governments.
Of Rwanda, of Uganda of Burundi.
And so because of that, those neighboring countries have had a stake for a long time in Eastern Congo's stability and they regularly intervene. All three countries have soldiers right now in Eastern Congo. The thing is is that those soldiers that end up in Eastern Congo often end up in getting themselves involved in mineral smuggling or other resource smuggling too, so that those three countries have economic connections to Eastern Congo as well. So the conflict has many dimensions.
Which brings us to twenty twenty five. Earlier this year, we had you on the podcast talking about in particular the M twenty three rebel group taking over some of the cities in Congo, which makes this recent peace deal a bit surprising that we got here. Can you just talk about the timeline of twenty twenty five and really how we actually reached this peace steal.
Yeah, So the M twenty three is this another proxy rebel group supported by Rwanda, even though Rwanda says they deny it, but you know, they have said that their army, the Rwanded army, has been taking defensive measures against the
instability and Eastern Congo. And we reported on a UN experts report this week which says that the Rwanda's actually straight up directed the M twenty three in Or earlier this year to take over two of the main trading hubs in Eastern Congo, cities of more than a million people right on the border with Rwanda, and the M twenty three invaded both these cities, took them over and now controls a huge swath of Eastern Congo, some estimate ten percent of the entire land area of Congo. And
Rwanda was directly involved in that. And you know, I think the question to ask right now is really like what does Rwanda want right? Does Rwanda want stability? Does Rwanda want access to Eastern Congo's resources? Is Rwanda really concerned with enemy rebel groups there? What does Rwanda want to do with the M twenty three. And so what we've seen now is that other international actors got involved, because you know, technically this is a violation of Congo's sovereignty.
And so we've seen the AU get involved, We've seen Angola get involved, We've seen the East African community, the Southern African Development community, I mean dozens of multilateral groups, kuttars involved, dozens of nations are involved trying to fix this conflict that has been intractable. And yet Rwanda persists along with the M twenty three at taking over land and occupying this land. So we know that they must have a reason.
And Michael, what does Rwanda say about their involvement in the conflict.
Rowanda has continued to deny that it supports the M twenty three. It says it's applying defensive measures, it's protecting itself. Rowanda denies that it is trying.
To fight a war to overthrow the Congolese government, but it does say that it has serious concerns about stability in eastern Congo.
Now, what the Unit It.
States has decided is that if the US can get involved in finding piece, you know, in conjunction with these other actors, right, can we convince Rwanda, meaning can we the United States convince Rwanda to lay down its weapons, to pull back and maybe find a way to develop the region together. And so this is this is the theory behind this peace deal that they signed last week the two countries with the United States as a witness.
Is it actually a peace steal though it's how do how are we defining peace? I guess, Michael, right.
Well, we're not there yet, right.
I mean, I think you know, we've I talk a lot to all sides, and I would say the piece is a process, and it's very much a process right here, and it's going to be a long process, right. And there are multiple steps to this process. The first is just the signature and the agreement, right, create a framework.
The next is this piece agreement does not included agreement with the M twenty three, so there's a separate There are separate talks ongoing in Qatar with the M twenty three with Congo and the M twenty five, and Rwanda as part of this piece agreement in Washington, has agreed to support that.
Right.
So that's a big deal or a big step, but that has to be resolved. Then there is another armed group that Rwanda has complained about for years. It's called let's just call it the f deal are the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda. That's a group that has links to the perpetrators of the genocide in nineteen ninety four, and Rwanda has always been worried about that group.
So Congo's has agreed to take steps to neutralize that group, and then Rwanda is going to have to withdraw it's what it caused, its defensive measures, and then we'll have to see them twenty three lay down its weapons, and then there'll have to be some kind of integration back into the army or some kind of way to deal with all these rebels who will have.
Laid down there are arms at all.
And then Congo needs to take over eastern Congo again and the state needs to return. So you can see there are a lot of steps, and the hope is that there's so much. We've always talked about Congo as the forgotten war, and I don't think you can call it that anymore. We've got the US paying attention very very closely, to the point where Donald Trump has brought these foreign ministers into his oval office. He's going to bring the presidents of both countries, hopefully if everything goes well,
into Washington this month. And then you have Culture involved, and you have all these other countries that are trying to bring an end to this conflict that's persisted for so long. So you know, we'll see there's a lot of attention to it, and the hope is maybe all that attention could bring results that haven't come about in the thirty years of this conflict.
And Michael, stick with us. We're going to take a quick break, but when we come back, we'll look at the role that the US might play, as you were just speaking to there, and what the chances are that this deal has of holding.
We'll be right back.
Welcome back, Congo Reporter Michael Kavanaugh is still with us. We're talking about the peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda that was signed in Washington, d C.
Last week.
Michael, you were just outlining before we went to the break, the US obviously played quite a big role in brokering this deal. How much of a role will they play though, in ensuring that it holds. You just mentioned that President Trump did invite the presidents of both the DRC and Rwanda to the White House. It remains to be seen
whether that actually happens. But do you, based on your sources, is there discussion happening behind the scenes with the US playing a big role in making sure that this remains intact.
When the m twenty three, with rwand and support took over, those two main training comes in Eastern Congo. Earlier this year, President Felix Jessicketty, the President of Congo, reached out to the United States and proposed something that was based on what he'd seen Donald Trump doing with Ukraine, which is a minerals.
For security partnership.
Right, please support us in our fight against Rwanda, and in exchange, you can have access to our mineral riches, our natural resources. Congo is the biggest country in sub center in Africa. It is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of natural resources. And so Congo has proposed that the United States get involved in Eastern Congo, but in Congo in general. Congo is the
second biggest source of copper. It is the biggest source of cobalt, which is in most electric vehicle batteries for example. It has gold, It has a mineral called tantalem which is in the capacitors and all of our portable electronics.
So it's an extremely rich place. And the thinking on the Congolese side and now on the United States side is that if US companies and if the US government mainly through the Development Finance Corporation the DFC, can invest in Congo, then the US will have a stake in the game, and if the US has skin in the game, they are more likely to continue to pay attention to the conflict there and care about stability and care about peace.
So if they have a short term, medium term, and maybe even a long term investment in the region, then maybe they'll make sure to hold all actors to account.
And Michael, before we let you go, sentiment on the ground, because you are one of the few who gets to go in and out of the country. What's the feeling like in Congo of this peace deal?
Oh gosh, I mean, it's a cliche to say cautious optimism. I think that I would say people don't trust Rwana and Congo period and.
There's a lot of skepticism.
That said, I think that this piece deal has brought more legitimacy to the Congoi's government. There was a moment a couple of months ago where it looked like the government would fall, that there would even be a coup, you know, or that the N twenty three would even try to take over the country. This piece deal, you know, aligning with the United States has given presidents to getting more legitimacy. It looks like there's going to be more
investment in the country. So there's some optimism because of that. But the next step is the twenty three piece deal. Until we see that, you can't think of this PCO ever holding right, and then you have to see the Conglese go after this this fdo R rebel group, and then you have to see.
The rewand and start to withdraw. And those are sort of the steps that we need to see over the next say three months.
But as the Conglese Foreign Minister said to me the other day, she say, trust is still a long way off.
For now what we care about his accountability.
Michael Kavanaugh, thank you so much for joining us. Really fantastic reporting, as always appreciated, and you can read all of Michael's reporting on the Piece deal on Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some of the other stories we've been following
across the region this week. Nigeria's main opposition parties, which have agreed to unite to contest twenty twenty seven elections under the banner of the little known African Democratic Congress, appointed two interim leaders to steer preparations for their campaign, and African ride hailing startup move is close to raising one point two billion dollars in a debt round that will help it finance a rollout of an autonomous driving
fleet with Alphabet's Waimo and expand in the US. People familiar with the matter said, and you can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley and tiwa Adebio. Don't forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks as always for listening.