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Rwanda goes to the polls on Monday, with President Paul Kagame looking to extend his twenty four years in office. As a rebel leader in the Civil War, he helped free the country from a genocidal regime and came to power shortly after. But since becoming president, he's shown little sign of wanting to give it up. Opponents of Kagame have been arrested and barred from standing against him.
Randon, opposition figure a big Twin and Gabihai won't be able to run in the upcoming presidential election on July fifteenth, since our civil rights haven't been restored by the judges of the Icodes of Kigali.
Though human rights groups and opposition activists increasingly face pressure from his government, Kagame's developmental transformation of the country has been lauded by many Rwanda and many in Europe and the USC Kagame as an important regional ally.
Thank you mart It's a great honor to be with President dam We are trade with Rwanda and just general, I would say great relationships.
Half do you take government.
We are absolutely delighted and excited about our partnership.
With Rwanda.
Dipple.
Thank you so much for your words and for the comments you've just made, mister President, Ministers, ladies and gentlemen, friends, it's a special honor and responsibility to be in Rwanda among.
The about you.
This week, we want to take a deeper look at Kagame's rule and attempts by the opposition to fight back.
Gowanda is not a freak country. We don't harm anything. Questions people, are you go after the genocide? Miners may form genocide.
They have nothing to do with better side.
They need a room to express in mind, they need the room to see how can you reform the governess in Rwanda.
I'm Jennifer's Abasaja and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week from the continent driving the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Now on Bloomberg, we've just published a detailed look at the kagame governments decades long suppression of opposition parties and that's come from reporter Simon Marx and our deputy Managing editor for Africa, Neil Munchi, and they're both joining us now on the podcast.
Hi guys, thanks for joining.
Hi, so let's just start with Kagame and how he came to power in the first place.
Neil, maybe you can walk us through that.
Paul Kagama is really a tootemic figure in Rwand in history. He was a rebel commander in the Liberation Army that fought through the bush to free Rwanda and end the nineteen ninety four Rwanda genocide, which killed eight hundred thousand people, mostly Tutsi's the ethnic group that Kagami is from as well.
He then became the vice president and Defense minister, but was essentially the de facto leader from nineteen ninety four of this small Central African country, and in two thousand he was first officially elected president and he has since then run the country with the pretty iron fist, routinely getting re elected with ninety three plus percent of the vote. And he's up for election again on the fifteenth, then there's very little doubt he's going to get anything less than ninety eight percent.
Well, and Neil, I mean just taking us back to what happened post the genocidal period for the country and was there any discussion, Was there any talk that the country was actually going to move in the path of democracy I.
Think a really important thing to understand about Rwanda and Kagami's place in it is that this is a country that was essentially left for dead right in ninety four. The world had turned its back on it, and every institution in the country was destroyed. Right, So they came
together in a way to re establish the state. But it was clear from the beginning that many Rwandans, especially in the Tutsi minority that was targeted in the genocide, felt that a return to traditional democracy, if that's what Rwanda had before, was not going to cut it given
what had happened. And while they talked about reconciliation and they erased any talk of ethnicity, which was the cause of the genocide, in public life, it was pretty clear from the beginning that Paul Kagami was going to run the place, and he was going to run it in a particularly authoritarian way, and that many Rwandans, to be fair, were quite happy with that, and many are still happy about it today.
Yeah.
I was going to say that as well, that that is really the feeling on the ground, and just in the time period too, we've seen the West really then cozy up to Kagame over the years.
How did that change happen? I mean, what was it that they were so keen to get close to him?
For if you traveled to Kigali, the capital of Ruanda, you'll immediately be very impressed. The roads are especially in comparison to other African capitals, including much richer countries. The roads are all paved, the police do not ask for bribes. It's clean and smooth and everything runs efficiently. There's power, there's internet, there's all these things that are lacking in a lot of other African countries. And Kagami did all
that with a lot of Western funding. But the reason that the Western funding kept coming is because when donors visited the country, they could see their dollars in action. Right, It's like, we gave him money and now they have roads. We gave money, and now the maternal mortality rate has
come down. The country remains still a very poor country along the lines of Mali South Sudan, like other traditionally low income countries, but again it comes from this place where this was a country left for dead in ninety four and thirty years later, Kigali is probably one of the most developed capitals on the continent.
In a relatively small country on the.
Continent exactly, with no natural resources. It's surrounded by all these countries that have cobalt and copper and oil and gas, and it's got none of it.
And yet despite all that, in Neil, there are still people. There are still parts of the world that criticize Rwanda and criticize Kagame in particular, and pushback against any sort of celebration of him.
I mean, what is it that the naysayers say so?
I guess the argument is that the bet that kind of Kagame makes, the Deally makes with the people is you get development but not democracy.
Right.
The government would argue that, yes, we are a democracy, et cetera. But if you're getting ninety eight percent of the vote, I think it's valid to raise questions about that.
Now.
The way that he has maintained power, according to critics, is suppressing dissent. There is no real opposition. Their allegations of disappearances of critics, assassinations, exile, imprisonment. There is no free press, there is none of the sort of hallmarks of traditional liberal democracy exist in Rwanda.
When we come back, we'll talk about the opposition in Rwanda and whether there could be hope for free and fair elections, like Neil is just talking about in the future. We'll talk about that next. So Simon, thanks for sticking around. So in your piece, you tell the story of how activists in the country have been trying.
To get help from all over the world to try and.
Really challenge this regime that we've been talking about. Can you tell us who they've been speaking to it and what exactly they're saying.
Yeah, So the Rwandan opposition and activists are very widespread throughout the entire world. There's a huge Rwandan diaspora on many continents.
In many states in the US, throughout Europe and.
Elsewhere, and they form this sort of loose group, not always the most organized, but they're doing many different things to try and get a foot in and a.
Voice in Rwanda.
So one group, for example, would be the Rwandan People's Government in Exile.
That's a group of.
Politicians that have not been allowed to register for the election on July fifteenth, but as a result have formed their own government with a whole long list of different ministers who are drafting proposals for Rwanda in exile. There are also large opposition figures such as Victoire in Gabiri, who has been banned from running in this election and
even being jailed previously. She's now out of jail, but she's been accused of denying the genocide that took place in nineteen ninety four by the government.
So it's an uphill battle really for these people.
There is a large lobby going on, especially in cities like Brussels. I was there recently, and many figures in the Rwandan the ESPER talk to officials in Brussels to try and convince them of the abuses taking place in Rwanda. But it's a huge uphill task for them because there is a lot of support for his regime out there.
And simon what happens to those that actually do try to oppose Gagame, especially publicly. Are they still getting into trouble even when they leave the country if they're a part of that the diaspora.
What are the some of the incidents that you can talk us through.
In the story, we really focus on one case of a man called Eugene Gasana. He's the former Rwandan ambassador to the UN. He was appointed in two thousand and nine and remained there for several years until twenty fifteen. He was a really close friend of Kagami. He helped him when Kagami was a rebel and seeking to come to power and overthrow the Hutu regime. He was not in agreement with Paul kagam over his decision to change the constitution which would allow him.
To stay in power, and the backlash was huge. He lost his position in government. He was forced to.
Apply for asylum in the US, which it was granted, and later on he was accused of rape by a member of his office in New York.
It's a very sensitive case. He claims that it is politically motivated.
And Kagame's role in this case is difficult to put your hands on. But his lawyer says that the government of Rwanda is behind this case and that it's completely politically motivated. And it's also true that the court in New York actually discarded the rape case for a lack
of evidence. In twenty twenty one, Interpol reviewed Rwanda's claims and found, and I quote here from their investigation into this, that there was a predominant political dimension to the case, in which case the red notice against mister Gasana was actually removed.
So Rwanda, it.
Must be said, obviously denies that this is a politically motivated case and that they have anything to do with it.
Again, this only.
Goes to show what happened to people who are willing to come out and criticize the president's motives.
And simon you mentioned there a few international bodies when it comes to the people who are trying to oppose the regime. Is there optimism that there will be a time when some of these human rights abuse accusations will be challenged. What is the sentiment really with the community.
I think when you speak to human rights groups, namely Human Rights Watch, AMSTE International, these kind of groups who are really documenting.
What's happening inside Rwanda in terms of people who have allegedly been.
Disappeared or assassinated, or people who have had to flee the country, they see a huge schism basically between.
What's happening inside the country.
And what people outside of the country.
View as what's important.
Really, Kagami does have a lot of vested interests and huge support internationally. He's helping Western governments with their immigration policy. He is also policing and offering up soldiers in the foremost it's army and peacekeepers in places where Western countries don't.
Want to send their troops. So really he's bringing so much to the table. He's also created a fairly positive.
Business environment, and I know, you know, the European Union have helped him bring, for example, the pharmaceutical industry to Kigale. Diplomats I speak to have a sort of glowing view of Kagame, and it really sits in direct opposition to how human rights activists and also the Rwandan opposition figures would view the regime. It really is a Jacqueline Hard situation.
One thing I'd like to point out is that the Kagami government has categorically denied over the years having played any role in the disappearance or assassination of its critics or defectors from the government, and stands by being an open, inclusive society for everyone.
And so then just going back to the election that is coming up on Monday, we largely do know what the outcome will be, but what is maybe the unknown in Kagame's next term. We know how long he is wanting to stay in office.
So several years ago, the Rwandan government changed the constitution allowing President Kagami to stay in power at least until two thousand and thirty four, So that's another decade from now that would allow him to be re elected in July as we speak, and go on and be re elected once again for a fifth term should he indeed run. But yes, the question of succession in Rwanda is really
the million dollar question. There's a lot of concern over what would happen if Indeka Game were to step down or what to die Even that, it really begs the question as to what would happen terms of stability in the country.
Considering we know that the Tutsi part of the population is around fifteen percent and the Hutu about eighty five percent, it's a huge question mark for the country.
Thanks so much, Simon and Neil for your reporting and your insights today.
Thanks for having us.
Thanks When any leader wins an election with ninety eight percent of the vote, there are bound to be questions about the state of the democracy. Thirty years since the Rwandan genocide. The country's ability to rebuild explains why the West has been so keen to work with Kagame.
But with growing human rights concerns raised.
By activists inside and outside of the country, many have asked whether the country's prosperity has come at too high of a cost. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually get your podcast. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks as always for listening