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Donald Trump is going to be back in the White House.
The task before us will not be easy, but I will bring every ounce of energy, spirit and fight that I have in my soul to the job that you've entrusted to me. This is a great job. There's no job like this. This is the most important job in the world.
But with Trump fully focused on his America First agenda, how will African nations fare on the president's foreign policy radar and will China continue to fill the vacuum that's left behind.
I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe, and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the Golden Age of America. This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.
On this episode of the Next Africa Podcast, we'll look at what another four years of President Trump will mean for the US relationship with the continent, and with Africa already low on the list of US priorities, will African leaders see much of a difference at all. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja, and this is the Next Africa podcast, bringing you one story each week from the continent, driving the future of
global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us this week is Neil Munshi, Bloomberg's deputy Managing editor for Africa, and also Peter Martin are Africa and Middle East reporter based in Nairobi.
Hello to both of you.
Hopefully you've gotten some sleep and you've been able to digest this all.
Let's just start here.
I mean, unlike in twenty twenty, a clear result in the election came quite quickly.
Neil, maybe we start with you.
How are you seeing African leaders responding.
To this victory by Trump?
I think if you take a step back, like you can see in Europe, the sky is falling. Ukraine, it's a big deal. The Middle East, it's a big deal. But the truth is Africa has never been a strategic priority for any American administration, So the reaction in Africa is not going to be as big as it is in many of those other places. Right, and that's what we're seeing. Congratulations mister Trump, but not sort of great joy or great outrage the way you might see in
other parts of the world. Because Democrat or Republican, They don't tend to treat Africa as a strategic priority.
Is there anything, though, that we can glean from Trump's first time in office about his policy towards Africa. I mean, we've heard some rhetoric about how he'd sometimes just tribes emerging economies. I mean, did he pay much attention to the continent during his first administration.
None at all. Basically, besides the infamous Country's comment, he was basically indifferent to Africa or dismissive. And I think the change that we'll see from Biden Trump is rhetorically in that sense. But also I mean there's an argument to be made that Trump will be more transactional. Right, that's kind of a cliche about him. US policy towards Africa has long been pretty transactional, right. The Biden administration's biggest strategic gain was the Lobito Corridor, which takes Zambian
copper to the coast of Angola. Right, it was about critical minerals encounter in China. I think that they're likely to ramp up the counter in China part and probably ramp down. The Biden administration did some focus on democracy, on human rights in countering Russian influence, which a put and friendly Trump administration is likely to ramp down.
And Peter, I mean, what's your take on this.
It's important to remember that Trump personally wasn't particularly interested in Africa engaged on the topic, but there were a lot of people around him who were deeply passionate about engaging in a global competition for influence with China, whether that was the Indo Pacific, in Africa and Latin America. That really gave focus to the way that they thought about the developing world in general, including Africa. So they're going to want to see push back against any potential
Chinese basis. They're going to want to work to secure critical minerals, push back on perceived PSC misinformation campaigns. So that's going to be one really clear focus on Russia.
I'd say it's a little bit more ambiguous.
Again, some of those national security figures around Trump, you know, John Bolton is a good example in the first Trump administration, very critical of Russia's role in Africa. Trump himself famously perhaps is less concerned about Russia's global role, and so I think it sort of remains to be seen how that will play out. One other area where there may be some shift in policy from the Biden administration comes
to foreign aid funding. So John Bolton, when he unveiled the Trump administration's Africa strategy, talked about the need to end indiscriminate funding of foreign aid and to use US overseas development money in a much more targeted and strategic way that supported US foreign policy. And so I think that that's one area where we'll probably see change.
One thing, just to add to Pete's point about kind of funding and that kind of thing, is, you know, we had a great story this week from one of our reporters about US evangelical funding for anti LGBTQ laws in Africa, and there is a decent chance we see that.
Ramp up, and it would obviously be targeted to a lot of the countries that have pursued a lot of that legislation, right.
Yeah, And I'm not saying that would come from the government itself, right, But whereas a democratic administration would try to counter that or look a stance at that kind of funding. If you look at you know, Trump administration policies that are probably much more likely to look kindly on that kind of funding.
The other area that may be different.
There is you know, the Biden administration has been quite openly critical of countries like Uganda, which have had strong anti LGBTQ legislation. Former Trump officials I've spoken to suggest that that strain in US foreign policy, that kind of pro human rights, anti discrimination strain, will be removed.
Two constituencies in the Republican Party that that plays to. One is the Christian right, which have a moral objection.
To those kinds of US policies in Africa, and the second is kind of the strategist.
We believe that it's counter bridge the.
US interests to tell what are oftentimes very Christian and conservative populations how to conduct their internal affairs.
So I think that'll be one shift.
Well, stick with us, both of you.
We're going to talk more about what a Trump presidency could potentially mean for the continent, dig into that a little bit more when we come back.
Welcome back today on the podcast.
We are looking ahead to a new term for President Donald Trump and what that potentially could mean for Africans. So Neil Munch and Peter Martin are with us. Neil Trump, as you were just mentioning, he has famously said that all Nations comments, and he's also made comments.
About the DRC.
Have you seen in any media on the continent these comments really reverberating and concerning leaders maybe in the region.
The recent kind of you know, when he was talking about the migrants are coming from the Congo thing, I don't think that really did, to be honest. I think when he was president and he said all countries, that was the kind of thing that did at the time. But again, you know, African leaders, just like leaders everywhere, practice real politic and in the end they deal with the American president they have.
There are quite a few African leaders who like the Trump emphasis on trade and investment over AID. It's something if you ask them about Chinese policies and the continent where they'll praise them and say, look, we want to be an investment destination. We don't want an objective Western sympathy. So some of that rhetoric may go down quite well.
And I mean they also don't lectures on human rights. Yeah, the African leaders, right, that's why they preferred the Chinese model to the American model. Also because the Chinese model came with a lot of money.
Let's just stick on China and Russia and the influence that they have had on the continent.
Potentially, if we do see.
The US receding a bit from their own relations to the continent, we could see these two countries really stepping up what it is that they're doing. I mean, I wonder from both of your perspectives, if you see that changing in the near term in a significant way.
One thing to keep in mind is that like China and Russia on two different tiers. Right, China is by far and away the most influential foreign country in Africa. Right. They poured tens of billions of dollars into the continent over years and years, built a lot of infrastructure, a
lot of projects all over the continent. Russia, its role on the continent gets kind of magnified because the things they do, you are so kind of extraordinary, right, Mercenaries and kind of the Wagner Group is quite like a you know, a catchy kind of thing. But they don't have that kind of influence, and it's not likely even under a Trump administration that they would rise to the
level of China. African countries want investment, and they want to build their economies, develop their economies and create jobs. For their people, and China is the only one who's come to the table with the kind of money that
could make that happen. If the US recedes from what is already not much engagement, it's likely that sort of middle tier powers who are already kind of coming into the continent, like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, are the ones who are going to rise and influence some continent because they are coming with money, with investment.
Finally, to both of you, I mean, what are the key moments now you're paying close attention to. I remember just a few weeks ago we were talking about the significance of President Biden's.
Trip to Angola. I believe that's still happening.
But what is it that you're watching closely for as it pertains to US and Africa relations.
I mean, I think the key thing to watch for will be the appointment as they take shape. Who's going to have the helm at the State Department that thed perhaps some of the aid and Trade Agency names coming out, and then also some of the people at the sort of assistant secretary level. If you have a Mike Pompeo type figure in the State Department, who's very, very focused on strategic competition with China. Then I think we can say that that's going to be the overriding focus of
Africa policy under Trump. So those appointments are really crucial.
Now.
The other thing we'll be watching is trade. Like I said earlier, Africa doesn't have a ton of trade with the US compared to other parts of the world, but there is a preferential trade agreement for some countries and exporters called the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act that's up for renewal in September, and so given Trump's reputation as a trade warrior, there is some angst around the renewal of that agreement and what it will entail.
And you can of course read our full coverage of the US election across Bloomberg platforms. Here's a few other stories we're following this week in the region. Mozenbek's opposition leader, whose supporters have shaken the Southeast African nation with protests over last month's disputed election, abandoned plans to return for a final march on Thursday. Bonanzio Mondlane, the fiery former lawmaker and pastor, had earlier pledge to lead a protest
in the capital Maputo. He's called on his supporters to occupy the city to back his claim that he won last month's presidential election.
After results showed ruling.
Party candidate Daniel Chappo triumphed with almost seventy one percent of the vote, and South Africa's national government said it will for the first time ask private companies to help revive dilapidated buildings it owns in inner cities in the country's biggest urban centers.
The measure comes as concern.
Bills about the fate of the central districts of cities such as Durban and Johannesburg, which have become bywords for urban dysfunction.
In both centers, high rises.
And other buildings, many of them owned by the state, have been abandoned and taken over by squatters who are extorted by armed gangs. And you can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer zabazone Jet. Thanks as always for listening,