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World leaders a meeting at the UN in New York. But in the diplomacy battle, is China making inroads in Africa?
We Chinese believe the African economy has a very bad future. We not regard Africa just as a destination for charity. We want to be economic partner for all African countries and to grow with you. That also means we can benefit from the partnership with Africa.
As Washington steps back, Beijing is stepping in. But what are African nations getting from the deal?
If we are to realize the sustainable future for our beloved continent, Africa and China, and indeed the entire will, we must acknowledge the reality of the interdependence amongst our community of nations.
On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll look at China's relationship with Africa and what a change in global order means for African investment. I'm t you Adabayo, and this is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each week from the continent driving the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. While
Jennifer is away at the UN General Assembly. I'm looking after the show this week and joining me to discuss China's growing interest in Africa is our Asia columnist Krishima of Aswani and our Africa economist Ivon Mango. Thanks both of you for joining me. Krishman, let's start with you. You've got a brilliant column up on the Bloomberg website at the moment where you've said that China's popularity in Africa is growing and that's kind of in stark contrast to the rest of the world.
So why do you think that is?
Yeah, Tia, you know, as part of my research into this topic, it was really interesting to look at the data that was coming out of this survey that was conducted. It's a series of surveys polls over a number of years that the Asia Society gathered and collated, and what it showed is that in parts of Africa, public opinion on China is more favorable than in many other parts of the world. And what was interesting to me about that it's not just like the elites or government officials.
This popularity is actually across the board, shared among citizens and in sub Saharan Africa, in fact, the positive views of China outnumbered negatives roughly three to one, and a lot of that is because of the economic ties between China and the continent, and particularly when it comes to sort of concrete, tangible results like roads being built, highways, ports, but also the sort of softer side of that economic diplomacy,
for instance, cultural exchanges and scholarships. China has been investing massively in all of that. But underpinning that desire by Beijing to build these closer relationships with Africa is obviously the massive amounts of critical minerals that are in Africa.
Something like thirty percent of the world's critical minerals are there, and it's access to that that China is really after, and this kind of popularity really helps Beijing pave the way in order for it to have more of an influence in the continent and get more access to these minerals.
Yeah, they're after minerals when it comes down to it, but tell me about what the relationship looks like in real time, maybe some of the sort of soft power elements to it. We mentioned the popularity. I've been reading recently that Nigeria has actually made steps to add Mandarin to the secondary school curriculum. Is that the sort of thing we're going to see more and more of as their popularity grows within the region.
Yes, absolutely, and I think think you know, there's two reasons for that. One. It's not just simply about adding a language to the curriculum for young students to learn and to be able to sort of, you know, communicate in a business language that is becoming increasingly important around the world. It's also a reflection of the kinds of investments that China has made in Africa, particularly when it comes to infrastructure, but not just that in the mineral spaces.
I was saying, across the continent, you've got newer and newer investments coming in. And I think what this shows when it comes to education is that it begins at the very sort of you know, early levels of that relationship. And what I've noticed in my research for this column
in particular, it's not just about economic diplomacy. It's also about creating a sort of cultural legacy or you know, a new generation of leaders in fact, who are becoming more susceptible to the way that the Chinese economy is run. And it's a very alternative vision that is on offer here than from what has been offered by the West.
And I think it's a really appealing vision, this idea that an economy can grow under what is effectively an authoritarian state, and that's you know, in some respects, a country that does not dole out massive amounts of sort of human rights lectures, but is willing to invest a lot in the country in terms of you know, actual money. I think is very appealing to a lot of leaders as well as people.
Yeah, just on that point about cultural legacy, you know, because of history, it's something particularly sensitive on the African continent. Is there any pushback We've mentioned the popularity, but is there any pushback on this growing sense of presence that China is seeming to gain in Africa.
I think there is pushback, and I think it's legitimate and I think it's sensible because along with this investment comes the concerns around debt diplomacy. You know, You've seen this in other parts of the world before, where China's Belt and Road initiative has made huge for rays places like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, for instance, where there have
been real concerns, genuine concerns about going into business with China. Now, the US has in the past talked about this and consistently waives the specter that if you end up doing a deal with China, the terms are not very good for you. And I think that's something that African nations
need to look at really carefully. It shouldn't just be a case of where you have investment coming in and then Chinese workers come in to build that railway, so there's no trickle down effect or transfer of knowledge and transfer of skills, and instead what ends up happening as has been the case that's been documented by the IMF and the World Bank, of a number of African countries being in debt to China under unfavorable terms and conditions.
That is a form of sort of economic colonialism, and I think that bodes really badly for the continent if that's the kind of relationship that continues in the future.
Interesting you and here Yvon talk to me about the numbers. How big is China's investment in Africa.
So, China's investment in Africa over the past say, fifteen years has been around eight billion dollars per annum. We saw an exceptional spike around twenty twelve of around fifteen billion, but generally it's been around the five to eight billion mark over the past say five years. What's been interesting is the sectors that FDI is going into, and that's what you find out. It dominates in the extractive industry, so it's mainly the extraction of crude oil gas, but
also minerals. You're seeing an increasing focus of course in critical minerals, partaking countries like Zambia which produces copper, in the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo that produces cobalt and Barbwie for instance, that produces lithium. About half of that FDI is going into commodities. On minerals, only about twenty five percent ends up in low value manufacturing, and that's something I think Africa would like to see shift. That'd like to see more of that funding, including the
debt that comes from China. When the China Africa Summit happened about a year ago in Beijing, one of the concerns was that China's trade surplus with Africa is growing, so basically that you're seeing the exports to the continent
increase relative to what China is importing from Africa. So a shift in that or at least a reduction in that trade surplus is something that Africa is seeking to do and they're hoping that China can help them do that by investing more in the manufacturing sector so that Africa can also produce manufacturing products that it can sult to China, Asia and other markets.
Okay, stay with me, krieshman Ivan. When we come back, we'll have a look at what the impact of the US tariffs could have on China's relationship with Africa.
We'll be right back. Welcome back. Today.
We're talking about China's growing popularity in Africa and how the relationship is growing at a time when Washington is stepping back. Karishma of Veswani and Ivon Mango are still with me. Before the break, we talked about Chinese investment, but China also sees Africa as a customer base. Ivon what is China exporting to Africa.
It's mainly manufactured goods that's coming low value added manufactured goods that are of low cost compared to those from other regions. That's what we're seeing coming into the continent at very competitive prices, which is probably another reason why African countries are struggling to break into the manufacturing industry.
Let's talk about tariffs here. Have they made it harder for China to export to the US. Is that having an impact on the amount of goods that are being sent to Africa?
In terms of the response or the reaction of African countries to the tariffs, what you're seeing is that countries that have been hit hard by these US tariffs are seeking alternative markets for their products. South Africa has been sending delegations to Asia, in particular the Asian countries, seeking alternative markets. Of course, this is not going to happen overnight. It takes months, six month, years to establish new trade relationships.
That will take time in terms of achieving and I guess China is also one of the markets they are looking at. But also keep in mind the US is a significant global consumer of imports. That is, it is South Africa's second biggest trade partner, So trying to find markets that can take up the share of exports from South Africa that we're being consumed by the US will take time.
I'm interested.
We've been talking about some of the countries that the hardest hit by tariffs, like South Africa is China then a winner of this tariff situation. Does it put some African countries that are hard hits in the position that they want in terms of looking to diversify into other markets, which could be China.
Has this helped them.
The two answers to that question. So the first one, yes, it helps China in that not just Africa, but I guess the rest of the world is now seeking alternative trade partners given the more inward US policies. So it does imply that countries globally, including from Africa, are more receptive to exploring trade relationships with other countries, including China. That's the upside and that's what we expect to happen.
Chrishma, it seems like this relationship between Africa and China has ramped up recently.
Is that true?
And how does Africa see its relationship with China over the long term?
Then?
Is it likely to be a priority.
I think it would be fair to say that it's ramped up recently because of the economic linkages and how attractive Africa's critical minerals have become to China in this race against the United States. You know, these minerals are really important for future industries, and I think that is one of the reasons why Beijing has been so keen to develop this relationship further with Africa. But I think it's also important to remember that it goes back a
long way. In fact, you know, Chinas supported several of the African liberation movements during the Cold War, and again for similar reasons in the sense that it was partly to diminish the West's influence on the continent. And it's also hugely important for China to have these votes at the United Nations countries that support it and its position on things like Taiwan, for instance, and I think it sees Africa as a really reliable partner in that situation.
Eswatini is the only African nation that actually has diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which of course Beijing claims as its own territory, and Sijinping Presidents Sigin Ping has talked about unification with Taiwan, either through peaceful means or by force. So having allies in Africa that can effectively become proxies for China's position at the United Nations is a hugely
important diplomatic aspect of this relationship. In fact, I don't know how many people listening know this, but in nineteen seventy one it was African votes at the United Nations that helped Beijing displace Taiwan and claim China's seat on the Security Council. So I think, yes, it's true that the ties between the content and China have significantly upgraded, as we've heard from Yvonne, in terms of the actual investments that have gone in in the last few years.
But this goes back a long way, and I think that's something people forget from time to time, that this is a relationship sometimes that it's based on ideology as well, and I think that's why it's stood the test of time and being so fruitful for both sides.
Wow, so perhaps some age old partnership being renewed for the modern age. You might say, Krishna and Levon, thank you for joining me both today. And you can read Karrishma's report on Bloomberg platforms. Now we'll put a link in the show notes. Here's some other stories from the region we've been following this week. The world's cocoa crunch is finally showing signs of a turnaround, as better harvest in South America and waning demand put supplies on track
for a back to back surplus. The improvement will help replenish global inventories that had been depleted following consecutive poor harvest in West Africa, a major growing region, and Botswana's president aims to complete a deal to take a majority stake into Beers by the end of next month, even as his administration and other potential buyers continue negotiations with
the diamond company's controlling shareholder. Anglo American, is looking to divest its eighty five percent stake into Beers, which mines most of its gems in the southern African nation, as part of a restructuring process that began sixteen months ago. You can follow so these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley.
Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts.
I'm tia Adebayo. Thank you for listening.