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Hi.
I'm Jennifer Zabasaja and this is a special episode of the Next Africa podcast. In South Africa, the African National Congress, the leading party in the country, has lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led them to power at the end of apartheid in nineteen ninety four. Today I'm joined by Bloomberg Government and Eco reporter stembile Lele, who's been covering this election extensively, and we discuss how one of the most important elections for South Africa has
unfolded and what the results mean for the country. So, Stembilay, thanks so much for joining us. You have been following this race very closely, this election closely. We're at the results center for the past few days. What do you make of the results? What are they telling us?
It's a crazy time. I don't know that anyone could have predicted at this moment that we're in and a lot or not enough where the ANC is concerned, can happen. Over thirty years, it went from having two hundred odd seats in parliament now two one hundred and fifty nine and now it's in a position where it actually has to share powered. I think what has led us to this moment in parts is, of course there's issues are
the own sense of incumbency of the ANC. It struggled to provide services, that struggle to deal decisively with corruption within its ranks, and even outside of it with what these crippling power cuts, the economy is not growing. But also what this selection has shown is that within its own house there's some very deep seated issues that needs to be resolved.
You've been covering the government for a number of years. Even the A and C themselves seem to be quite surprised at this outcome, despite what you just mentioned about what we've seen over the past few years with this economy.
So I think there's an interesting dynamic to mention here. There is the narrative, and I suppose it does make sense to say that, you know, the ANC has lost the support of so many people. They no longer have an interest in the ANC and the way that.
It does things.
But if you look at the ANC's share of the vote, along with the u KANDOCS, Were Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters, these three parties are in essence one monster, one machine. The EFF and kand OSS are offspring or breakaway parties as we call them in South Africa of the A ANDC, and together they have well over fifty percent of the vote, and that kind of tells you that people may not be happy with the A and C, but they still do have a bond to it, They
do still prefer it. They just wanted to do something different. When you look at the main opposition, the DA, they're in it around twenty one twenty two percent. You know, it's a significant share of the vote, but it still tells you that they're struggling to attract the majority of black voters. And so I think that that is significant. It's not an outright rejection.
Of the A and C. Of course, it does remain the biggest party.
That's the most important thing, even without the outright parliamentary majority. But what I'm say seeing from these results in the parties that are getting support is that there's an element of the ANC that people want to keep going.
They perhaps just wanted to do better.
And somewhat at the center of this, or I guess the face of this is President Serio Ramoposa, because he is the leader of the party. We heard him speak for the first time over the weekend since the election.
What this election has made plain is that the people of South Africa expect their leaders to work together to meet their needs. They expect the parties for which they have voted to find a common ground, to overcome their differences, to act and work together for the good of everyone.
How does he play into these maneuvering these discussions that are happening right now.
So he is in a difficulty position, right he is now forever in the history book's going to be the guy who led the ANC to its worst electoral performance by far. It's a watershed moment in the body politics of South Africa and in particular for the ANC. I mean, it's like you say, they're completely shocked. They're surprised by how this could happen to them. There is that disbelief that's there. But what it does for for sil Ramapassas it puts them in a very difficult position.
One.
We know that just in terms of his personality, he's a bit of a runner. If we're being honest, He's resigned before. Press him to resign when things have gotten tough, and so we're really going to see his metal. We're going to see his backbone if any, over the next few days, because he's going to require some serious political fortitude. The first I think issue he's going to face is when he meets with the party's National Executive Committee on Tuesday.
That meeting is going to be very important because it's going to discuss the configurations of a coalition or an informal power sharing agreement with other parties. And one of the things he's going to come up again is the idea of looking into going into an agreement with a party like the Democratic Alliance, which, as we know, the market's favor. They believe that that kind of coalision would
be favorable. It would lead to policy continuity. Both parties are quite economically conservative and so it seems to be a good match, but politically it is an extremely difficult decision.
They have been completely on opposing sides.
The other issue then becomes is if he does lose that fights, and even if he doesn't, the other consideration is around teaming up with the MKP party led by Jacob Zuma. And what we know about this party, at least at this point, is that the one demand that it has, even before talks begin formally is the resignation of Si Rama Pasa zumas vendetta with Rama Porsa.
It's a serious one.
He wants Rama Pasa to know that he, at least in his eyes, is a better leader than him. He is the one that can preserve the ANC, where he sees the ANC having been destroyed under Rama Pasa's reign.
And you mentioned and the other parties, I mean, how have they been reacting to these results, to this current outcome and this current predicament related the country is in.
So the other parties, even before this election, they were saying that, you know, if things don't go their way and the opposition block is not able to form a government, is not able to convince the majority of South Africans to give them a chance to lead, that they would look to avoid what they called a doomsday scenario in which the A and C teams up with the leftist
economic freedom Fighters. So we know that the opposition Block, led by the Democratic Alliance, their main goal going into this election was to reduce the share of the vote that the ANC has. They were really looking to have them lose this outright majority that they've had for thirty years. Here's what the leader of the party, John Dnasen had to say to the outcomes.
We will do what we can to prevent what I've called since April last year a doomsday coalition coalition between the A and C and the radicals in the AFAF for the controversies were party because those policies will takes till they frige down the same road to Zimbabwe.
Of course at the time, they weren't looking at the risk emerging entirely from Jacob Zumer's MKP, which has obviously done the most as what we've seen and the significance of this party is the incredible showing that it's had in its debut, garnering more than three million votes.
It's unprecedented.
With all of the parties that we've seen pop up since nineteen ninety four, it's by far been the most successful. So I think there's a struggle now, there's a scrum to have these conversations with the A ANDCS to try and form a government in which everyone can play a role. And I think that's what the next seven days are about. They're very crucial. So I think that the ball is definitely in the ANC's court. Other parties have met at an executive level. They have a position going into these talks.
They're just waiting for the approach now, and they're waiting to see what it is that the A ANDC is willing to put on the table to move things forward.
I know you said the ANC the ball is in their court obviously because they're at the billing party. But does Jacob Zumer and the MK Party are they really the king makers here? Do they have the upper hand moving forward?
So I think the block that is the main consideration at the moment would be the A and C, the Democratic Alliance they incut, a Freedom Party, and maybe one or two smaller ones. These three or four parties alone seem to be able to have the numbers to form a government in Quaslu Natal, which is a key province along with Houting, and then it also solds.
For the national question as well.
The two provinces that I've mentioned, they're key because they are the most populous, they basically determine the outcome of this election, but they are also the economic hubs of the country, and so I think what the A and C is really looking for is an agreement which will cover those provinces, possibly even municipal governments across the country,
as well as the national question. It does seem possible that they can have the desired outcome, which really is to avoid a scenario in which Jacob Zuma has the power to determine the fate of firstly a civil rama POSA and then more efficent that of the A ANDC in general.
Susan Simbi, they're just moving forward. I mean for the markets, investors are already starting to react to this fork in the road. As one put it, What does this all mean though?
For markets?
Are they just on stand by until we get more certainty?
I think there's a lot of speculation, there's a lot of anxiety because no one knows what's happening behind closed.
Doors or these political parties, what we are.
Going to have now, and what I think everyone is looking out for is what do the demands of each party look like? What is it that they are not willing to compromise on in the formation of this new government. And I think obviously from a market perspective, you're looking at key ministries in cabinet right, You're looking at something like National Treasury, maybe the Department of Trade and Industry as to who leads these because all along it's been
an A and C show. But now you may have someone from the Democratic Alliance, someone from the IFP coming in and you're going to question, you know, unknowns, people that are not known to the markets. There's going to be subjetitus around whether or not they're able to fill the big that would have been left by their predecessors.
Yeah, you would think with the election over it would make your job easier stimulate, but it seems like it's really just getting started. But remarkable reporting from you and the team. Really appreciate you joining us for this episode. Thanks very much for having me and thank you for joining us for this special episode of the Next Africa podcast focusing on the result of the election in South Africa.
As Stembile noted, there is a lot of uncertainty right now within the parties, within the country and also within the markets. What will be key to pay attention to is how these negotiations are going behind the scenes and also what the messaging is going to be like for the electorate, for the voters and the supporters of these individual parties, and also for the global community. Thank you for listening.
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