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Israel is building security ties with the breakaway state of Somaliland and could plan a red sea base to target Houti rebels.
Well, there is no limit as what areas that we can work with.
We can work.
Together, but the details of a specific area will come after the President visit TUESDA.
Israel is the only UN member to recognize Somaliland's independence and could use that relationship to target Iran's allies on the Arabian Peninsula.
Our friendship is seminole and historic.
I think this would be a great opportunity for expanding our partnership.
On today's podcast, we'll look at Israel's relationship with Somaliland, what a base in the region could look like, and the wider impact it could have on the Horn of Africa. Jonnifer's Abasaja and this is the Next Africa podcast, bringing you one story each week from the continent, driving the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining us today is our East Africa reporter Simon Marx and also Bloomberg's Israel Bureau chief Ethan Bronner. Thank you
both so much for joining us. To unpack the story that you worked on.
Simon. Let's just start with you. Can you give us a bit of context.
About Somaliland for people who don't know much about it and how the breakaway state came about.
So, Somaliland has had decades long history fighting for independence.
It was a British protectorate in the nineteenth century right up to nineteen sixty when it declared independence for the first time, but after that the Somali federal government never really endorsed the move and it's had a struggle with Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, to truly gain in the deence, and that tension resulted in a civil war in the eighties, a very bloody campaign which flattened Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa in
nineteen ninety one, after which it once again declared independence, and for the next thirty years or so it has been in a sort of tussle with Somalia to actually endorse that it is a self governing region. It does effectively have independence, but it's never really been recognized and Somalilanders really have a lot of contempt for Somalia and the government in Mogadishu for the bombing campaign and the bloody atrocities it led against them in the eighties and nineties.
Which made Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision to recognize Somaliland last year that big of a deal. Can you speak to the reaction and the impact from Somalilanders around that.
Yes.
So, obviously Israel's recognition of Somali Land, it's the first country to have done it. It was a humongous deal for Somali Landers. There were celebrations in the streets. People were lining the capitol holding Israeli flags and it was an amazing scene. You know, Somali Land is a Muslim country, so it really brought together both Muslims and Jews who
were there at the time. And for Somaliland, I think they were just happy that they got the first country to recognize them and saw this as an opportunity for other countries then to join the bandwagon, which I must
say has not been an easy feat. There has been no other country come on board since Israel recognized it, and that has led to some questions about, you know, whether Israel was the best country to recognize it first, considering everything that's going on in the Middle East at the moment.
And we saw a strong reaction from other international leaders around that. Ethan, just bring you in from the Israeli side. Can you speak to the strategic decision behind Israel recognizing Somaliland?
Why is it such a priority?
The main issue for Israel is that it's an opportunity for them to get closer to the Juti militias in Yemen. The Jutis have been a really rough enemy to Israel in recent years. It turns out that Israel wasn't really watching them all that closely until the last couple of years when ballistic missiles were flying into Israel from the Yemen.
And they've now taken the view that you're taking on the Houtis in Yemen has a level of significance not so different from Hamas in Gaza, from the Hezballah in Lebanon, and even Iran itself. And this is part of a shift in Israeli's security doctrine that occurred after October seventh, twenty twenty three, when Hamas swarmed into Israel and killed twelve hundred people and took two hundred fifty hostage. A
sense of vulnerability has spread throughout Israeli society. Of the security establishment, a sense that the way they'd been assessing their enemies in the past was no longer enough.
It is no longer enough.
To know, well, they're out there, but they're not coming at us right now. If they have an ideology that opposes us, and they have arms to do so, we are going to go after them in an aggressive fashion, proactively.
And that's I think what's going on here.
Is that what we've heard too, Ethan, from NETANYAHUO and across the board within Israeli politicians, they're supporting this move.
I've seen no opposition to it.
Yeah, I think it fits very well with Israel's general outlook that this is the kind of thing it needs to be doing.
Yes, and stick with us, guys. When we come back, we'll talk more about what the security relationship between Samullilan and Israel could look like.
We'll be right back. Welcome back. Today.
We're looking at possible plans for an Israeli military base in Somaliland. Simon Marx and Ethan Browner are still with me now. So Simon, what do we know about how advanced some of these plans could be for a potential military base, not just that where it could potentially be and what it could potentially look like.
Yeah, Well, what's clear is that way before Israel granted its recognition of Somaliland, there have been Israeli officials, both government and intelligence visiting the breakaway state all throughout twenty twenty five with the attempt to scout the country look for potential locations for conducting operations against the houties. Now
it's a very sensitive issue. Obviously, creating a physical base with an Israeli flag on it would be a huge target for many other operators, even the huties themselves Al
Shabab and Somalia. And so there are views out there among the officials we talked to that they could maybe do something more covert in nature perhaps, but also maybe use some of the infrastructure in Berbera, which is a coastal city on Somaliland's coast where the United Arab Emirates have a large amount of infrastructure, including a port and a very long airstrip which could be used by Israel. So there's a lot of options on the table, I would say, but what is clear is they are definitely
looking at the country very closely. There's also a more remote location further north, a mountainous area north of Berbera that could be used that has been used by Russia in the past to conduct operations. So it'll be very interesting to see what the Somali Land government does from here and allows Israel to actually do. Considering the regional opposition to this move.
Yeah, and surely there is increased opposition and a bit of concern about what this means. Then, more broadly for other countries in the region. How much have we heard, potentially some opposition from other leaders about this close relationship that we're seeing between Somaliland and Israel. Simon, I want to start with you, and then Ethan, I'd be curious to talk to you after well.
In the aftermath of Israel recognizing Somaliland, a whole host of countries more than twenty brought out statements against it and supporting Somali's federal sovereignty over Somaliland. Those countries many Arab League members. Egypt came out, Saudi Arabia came out very strongly as well, and it even caused a huge rift between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia over
the issue. Following the move, Somalia also canceled a lot of the UAE's projects in Somaliland due to its involvement in allowing a dissident leader in Yemen escape through Somaliland. So this whole issue really sort of put the cat among the pigeons regionally, and I think helplessly Israel needs to step very carefully, I guess, in how it approaches this issue, considering its vulnerability geographically.
Ethan, what would you say, I.
Think Simon summarized it well.
I think that while it is a project and Israel is focused on, Simon a wonderful job reporting on it when he went there, I wouldn't say it's at the top of the list of what this country is up to right this minute. Right it's right in the middle of a war with a rat, it's working on a war with Hisbela in Lebanon, and so this other thing
matters to them. But so far, the Houties, by the way, have essentially stayed out of the current conflict, even though they were involved in the post Gaza conflict quite intensely. You know, I think they're still trying to take their measure of the Hooti situation. And it is also important, as Simon notes, that there is a relationship there with
the UAE. The Israeli UAE relationship has grown very tight, and in this current war with Iran, the UAE has been notable for complaining about Iran and its response to the attacks, and not complaining about what the United States and Israel have been doing in Iran. And so I think that we'll have to see where this goes. But you know, it is also important to remember that the houtis their slogan is death to Israel, had a curse upon the Jews.
They really do want.
To do something bad to Israel, and Israel has decided after October seventh it can't let such things just lie.
Is Israel not concerned though about the potential wedge that this could draw between other Middle Eastern countries this, I think it.
Is concerned, and that's probably why it hasn't acted yet. But you know, it's trying to figure out what to do. I mean in terms of setting up a base or anything like that. Yes, it is concerned. But what has happened since October seventh is in the battle between diplomacy and military based security. Military based security is winning out almost every time.
Here simon, where do things go next? What is it that we should be watching out for. Could we see other nations like Israel recognizing Somaliland as well in the independent state, potentially gaining even more independence.
Yeah, I think the Somali Land government is putting a lot of attention into trying to get that second recognition. There are reports that they've engaged a lot with countries like Ethiopia, other African nations like Namibia, for example. On the list, They've looked at India, but so far no one's really jumped the gun there and done it. There's
also a huge amount of focus on the US. Somaliland have offered the US a base, also access to critical minerals, which are largely unexplored in the country but widely believed to exist in large quantities. President Trump has also said that this is an issue he is personally looked looking at. So obviously, if the US came in, that would really completely change the whole landscape on this What.
Does that mean then for Somalia.
Well, Somalia are looking at what's happening and taking their own measures. They've become increasingly close with Turkey, which has a pretty large military presence in the country. They've brought in fighter jets, there's soldiers, there's training operations from the Turks, and the Saudis have also forged a military and security
pact with Somalia. That's quite interesting because the Saudis, while they endorse Somalia's sovereignty, they've done very little really financially or militarily speaking, and that's begun to change in recent months. So the instability within Somalia itself, with all its breakaway states, etc. Has it's at fever pitch right now.
Ethan maybe final to you.
Of course, as you mentioned, Israel has quite a lot on its plate right now. But what is it that you're watching for As far as where this relationship goes next, I.
Think that the key point is would the US join?
That seems to me the next big issue, And there was some reason here to believe that the US was interested and willing to do so, both for the reasons of joining in this coalition and so on and against the Houtis, and also.
Of course for these rare minerals.
That are quite important in the industries of the future and AI and that kind of thing. So I think that's the next thing to watch, in addition to what exactly they do in terms of a base. As I said earlier, I doubt it's going to happen imminently. I think it's still in a kind of planning talk stage.
Ethan Browner and Simon Marx thanks guys so much for joining us this week on the podcast, and you can read both of their latest reporting on Bloomberg platforms.
Now will put a link to that in the show.
Note.
Here's some of the other stories we've been following across the region this week. How tang the South African province that's home to Johannesburg and the capital, Pretoria, is struggling to grow and shift from manufacturing and mining to a services hub, and it's deepening inequality. That's according to the provincial government, which said urgent action is needed to arrest
the decline. And the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda agreed to quote de escalate tensions and implement a peace agreement reached with the help of US President Donald Trump last year. Officials from both nations agreed on concrete steps towards lasting peace in the war toward Eastern Congo, according to a statement by the Department of State, and you can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the show notes.
This program was produced by Adrian Brod Bradley and tiwa Adebayo. Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts, But for now I'm Jennifer's Abasaja.
Thanks as always for listening.