Episode 856: Israel-Iran Ceasefire – Will It Last?

back my guest, yakovkats. He is the former editor in chief of the Jerusalem Post, author of the upcoming book While Israel Slept Alhamas Surprised, the most powerful military in the Middle East, which is available for pre order now, and he is I think one of the most insightful and remarkably informed analyst on the entire region. Yakoff, welcome and thank you for joining me again on NEWTS World.

To me, it was a historic day because what it showed was, finally there's a president who, after so many who have promised over the years not to allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, and had consistently and constantly taken that red line. We won't let them in rich uranium. And then when they enriched uranium, we said, we'll only let them in rich uranium to low levels. And then when it went to twenty percent, the world said, well,

not to sixty percent. And then when it went to sixty percent, the world said, well not to ninety percent. And finally someone understood that what was happening here and this was what was obvious to everyone, and you know this, Sir is that there is no uranium enrichment to sixty percent unless it is for a nuclear bomb. And it was time for the Uranians to be taught that they cannot continue to recavoc in the world with their proxy army and to illicitly try to obtain a nuclear weapon.

And I think that what the President did will go down in history as a projection of power, but also as an important lesson to rogue states that they can't get away with trying to develop weapons of mass destructs.

with astonishing effectiveness. Well, weren't you a little surprised at how thoroughly they came to dominate the region and how decisively they were targeting specific key revolutionary guard and other military leaders.

But for Iran it was really it was a long time of planning and of Israel considering its options and really preferring diplomacy. But over the years it perfected a strike package, really the likes of something that I don't think we ever could have imagined. I mean, if we look at what happened on June thirteenth, when Israel launched its attack, it split up its targets into three different categories.

Category number one was taking out all the air defense systems in Iran, basically open up the skies, take control of Iranian airspace. I call it not aeriel superiority. Aerial sovereignty is what Israel created over Iran by taking out all of the missile defense systems, all the radar installations. Basically what it allowed for. I mean, think about this. We had twelve days of operations over fifteen hundred Israeli Air Force sorties over Iran, not a single plane shot down.

I mean, it's remarkable, right when you think about what Israel was up against in the run up to all of this, so that itself is a remarkable accomplishment. The second category was the ballistic missile stockpiles and launchers. Iran does not have an air force. Its air force is outdated, it's antiqued. It's based on old planes that have bought from the United States, like phantoms back in the nineteen seventies,

before the Islamic Revolution in seventy nine. It's got some Russian aircraft, but nothing that really presents a challenge to a formidable air force like the Israeli one. So what they had invested all of their money and scientific research in was ballistic missiles, and they've developed sophisticated ballistic missiles. Before this operation they had about three thousand of them

and maybe another five six hundred launchers. And by the way, they had planned to launch hundreds of ballistic missiles at

a time. It is in total, over twelve days, they were able to fire five hundred missiles into Israel, ninety percent of those intercepted by Israeli missile defense systems backed by the American THAD that had been deployed here already during the war that erupted after October seven, and Age's ships that were also docked off the coast of Israel and the Mediterranean, the East med that also helped in the interceptions. So you saw also the degrading and the

weakening of their missile capability. Within that category was also this remarkable operation called Operation Narnia, where the Israeli Air Forced, together with its intelligence services, took out in the span of just a few minutes, fifteen of the top nuclear scientists in Iran, the ones who were working on the most sophisticated and complicated components of a nuclear weapon, as well as commander of the Iranian Military, commander of the

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IERGC, command of the Air Defense Systems, commander of the Air Force, and a bunch of slew of other top military commanders. Over twenty top military commanders in Iran knocked off. What that does is it disrupts. It creates chaos in the whole chain of command and in the command and control system. So who gives the orders? What do we do who attacks, how do we attack? And then, of course was the third category.

Once you created aerial sovereignty, once you've disrupted their offensive capabilities and their ability to command and control themselves, then the Israel started to go after the nuclear sites. And again it's focus, and this is important for people to understand, its focus was not on removing Iran's nuclear program. There's a reactor, for example, called Boucher, which is a nuclear

reactor that the Uranians still have. Israel to not attack that reactor, that's a civilian energy reactor, let them have it. Israel's focus was on the uranium enrichment program because that has only one perpose, and that is for the purpose of nuclear weapons. So it went after three key facilities, the same ones that Donald Trump ordered the B twos

to bomb Natans. The main enrichment facility where thousands of centrifuges are located in multiple chambers on multiple levels underground, the four doaux facility, which Israel had difficulty penetrating on its own, it was unclear how it was going to do that. And the third facility is Isfahan where they

did the uranium conversion. So they took the raw uranium turned it into the gas that was fed to the centrifuges, got it back from the centrifuges, and eventually would have turned it into the metal, which is what would make a nuclear bomb. So those three categories and you look at what Israel was able to do. It's a pretty remarkable operation.

not more. The four Daux facility, which is built into a mountain, and it's unclear exactly how deep down it is. The Ranians don't exactly publish their blueprints online, but we have heard from Raphael Grossi, who is the Director General of the IEA, the UNS nuclear watchdog. He has said that it's about half a mile underground. Other intelligence estimates talk about it being anywhere from about you know, eighty ninety to one hundred and fifty meters, so about let's say,

you know, two hundred yards or so underground. Whatever it is, it's very deep into a mountain top. What we've seen if we look at satellite images, we see that there are access roads, two access roads that go into a mountain, but then the facilities deeper inside the mountain. So how to penetrate a mountain is not something that's so easy to do. That's number one. Number two is Natans Well. Israel's bunker busters were able to penetrate definitely the first

levels of the underground chambers. There was the lowest level that there were some questions of whether Israeli bombs were able to get in there. One thing that Israel did do, and the IAEA even said this, was that Israel bombed the power plant that was feeding the electrical current to the centrifuges in Natans, and that likely caused damage to the centrifuges themselves. Just so people understand, centrifuges these kind of steel, round, circular looking machines where the uranium spins around.

They're very delicate, so any little change to their motor or their rodder, or even the electrical current could knock them out. But it's all better to have complete destruction. And as the President himself has said, the B two bombers, together with the Israelis, succeeded in obliterating. So after all the damage that Israel did came the B two bombers. They dropped a dozen there were seven in total, six

of them each carrying two bombs. Two GBU fifty seven six dropped their twelve payload of bombs into the mountain where four dose located. One of the aircraft dropped two bombs into Natans, and then the Tomahawks were fired, also at Natans, but also at Isfahan. Again, we don't have images of what's happening inside, and the Ranis of course wanted downplay it and pretend as if the damage was

not extensive. But when you look at the satellite imagery and you see literally like someone punctured a hole in a mountain, you can just imagine what's going on beneath that and underground and Israeli intelligence assessment for what they're worth, and I think they're worth something after what we've seen, claimed that the destruction is extensive, that Iran's nuclear program has been set back by a number of years.

whole experience. I need nuclear weapons because nuclear weapons would give me immunity. Why has no one ever attacked Pyongyang, North Korea because they have nuclear weapons so they have immunity. Why has the world not been able to enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine in the war with Russia because Russia has nuclear weapons? So if I'm Kramenai, my conclusion is I actually need to move faster to get

the nuclear weapons. And I'll say one other thing, mister speaker, is that if we look at the two previous models or examples when Israel took out nuclear reactors, one of them was an eighty one, the Osirak reactor I mentioned that was built for Iraq by the French in two thousand and seven. The Al ki Bar reactor that Pashar al Assad was building in northeastern Syria was being built

for or Syria by North Korea. Once each of those reactors was destroyed, for the Iraqis or the Syrians to rebuild, they would have required the French again or the North Koreans again. They did not have a domestic, indigenous scientific or academic nuclear physicist infrastructure. They didn't have people of their own who could do it, so they would need to call up their friends and say, hey, can you come. That's another level and layer of complexity and challenge Iran.

It's all local, domestic, indigenous. They have the knowledge now. Yes, part of the delay is the fact that Israel handpicked key nuclear scientists and took them out, and they have been eliminated, and those people, let's say, were the centers of excellence and the knowledge of certain components. That will delay them. But knowledge also can be replaced because they have the academic infrastructure, they have others who have some of that knowledge, they'll be able to rebuild. So everything

can be rebuilt and everything can be replaced. So therefore, we really have only two ways to get the Iranians not to rebuild. One of them is exactly what you said. It's regime change. It's for the Iranian people to rise up and topple this violent, oppressive regime. By the way we've seen over the years, how they have tried right. This isn't They're not doing a favor to Israel or the United States. They want freedom because this regime is

violent and oppressive to them. Hangs people from cranes in downtown Tehran because of a sexual preference, beats women on the streets of Iran because they don't cover their hair the right way with a head scarf, throws political dissonance journalists, and the infamous ev In prison that is rolled by the way bomb the gates of it during this operation,

just as a symbolic message to the Iranian people. But hopefully the Iranian people will be able to take advantage of this opportunity, will gain some confidence to do that. But there's also one other all alternative, another option per se to try to prevent this rebuilding, and that is a new nuclear deal. And we're starting to see and hear that the President has dispatched his envoy to the Middle East, Steve Whitcoff, to try and get those talks again,

going with the Iranian foreign minister. They had held five rounds of negotiations prior to June thirteenth Winters who launched its attack, and a new deal which Iran comes too weaker, could potentially get Iran to agree to a deal that they won't have enrichment in Iran. And if that happens, that they don't have enrichment in Iran, we will have bought a longer period and have created a safer and more stable Middle East.

and we now know they were wrong. But this was orchestrated by Iran when his BLAT's most important proxy, the one that had invested billions every year into started firing missiles the next day, on October eighth. This was also per the instructions of the Iranian patrons and the Huthis. As we're recording this, mister speaker, just a few hours ago, there was a boothy missile and UAV that was intercepted

on its way to Israel. So we're after a ceasefire and its proxy in Yemen is still launching projectiles and explosive drones at this country. I would hope that that will be part of any negotiation. I would hope that to be part of any talk that will happen. But I also think that word today in a new Middle East October seventh was a great failure. But that's only one side of the coin. In the post October seventh reality, Israel has re engineered the Middle East. Let's look at

what's happened. His Billah is beaten back. It's leader hasan astrala. He was like the Bin Laden of this region, the most infamous, deadliest, ruthless terrorist leader. He was killed, His successor was killed. His successor's successor was killed by Israel. They lost their long range missile capability, and everyone by now knows about the famous beeper attack that the Israeli Mossad launched against his Blah Camas, which unfortunately still holds

our hostages. But Camas has been beaten. It has no real capability to launch an attack inside Israel. And even during a war with Iran over twelve days, his block comes out in public. He says, you know what, we're not getting involved. Who would have imagined that was possible. I mean, I've been writing about this stuff for twenty

five years. Okay, every briefing I would go to in the Israeli military and the Israeli intelligence offices, they would always say, look, when we attack Iran, it's a fate complained that his blow is going to attack us too. Well, that didn't happen, and not to mention by that, I forgot to say, Asad's gone, his military's gone. Now you're right, we have a new guy there. We don't know who he is, Ahmed Shahra al Julani. Is he good? Is he bad? He was a former al Kaeda jihadist. Time

will tell, but there's amazing opportunity to say so. Iran is beat in badly, its proxies are weak, it's nuclear program degraded. Hopefully this new deal would include all of that together.

with senior people who we're sending messages of support. We're talking about enhancing and strengthening the relations with Israel at a time that we're bombing in Iran because they understand something very simple. Israel is doing work that they need done because Iran is a threat to them, no less than it is a threat to Israel. Iran tries to undermine those Sunni states, the UAE, the Saudi's Bahrain Cutter, all these other countries, Egypt and Jordan as well. Right, people,

this kind of flew under the radar. But Israel had to close its airspace during the twelve days of this operation, couldn't really let planes take off, couldn't let planes land, mostly because it knew that if the Iranians know that Benurian Airport, our international airport near Tel Aviv is going to be getting planes in and out, they'll hit it with missiles, and God forbid one of those missiles hits

a plane, right, that would be very bad. So you had about fifty sixty thousand Israelis going through the land borders with Egypt and with Jordan quietly, peacefully, no problems. I mean, these are Arab countries. Why aren't they closing their borders with Israel during a time like this, right, they should be standing with their Iranian allies. But that's the truth. The Iranians are not their allies. The Iranians are the dangerous actor in this region, and they understand it.

And I think that this is why this really has so much immense opportunity. What has happened here, what it presents us in this region, and where we can go from here. And this is really it's to the credit of Prime Minister Nitanio for taking this courageous decision, and I think greatly to the credit of the President for deciding to join this and really send this collective message to the world and especially to this region that we can build up so much amazing opportunities from here.

destroys your radar installations. But what we've seen also with the Mosad operation on the ground, in addition to the Israeli Air Force, which did a remarkable job, the Mossad had built up a network of agents in Iran who deployed drones. It had basically created a drone explosive factory in Iran, and these drones were deployed on that June thirteenth day and took out missile defense systems, took out

radar systems, and took out other capabilities. And then also there were reports that the radians were spreading of white pickup trucks that were traveling throughout the streets of Tehran and were apparently dropping off explosive devices at the homes of different people. Now, even whether that's true or not about the truck, the fact that it sowed such fear within Iran tells you everything. And I've been asked a few times and I don't know the answer to this.

Were these Israeli agents? Were the Iranians or were they someone else? I think what we have to assume, and you know this, Sir, is that with intelligence agencies like the CIA, like the MOSAD, like the really good ones, sometimes when they operate somewhere they operate, Israeli agents go and do it. American agents go and do it. Sometimes they hire local people to do it for them. But sometimes they could even have people who are doing it for them who don't even know they're doing it for them.

They could actually be thinking they're doing it for someone else when they're actually doing it on the behalf of Visral, on behalf of the United States.

whether they were as Raeli or they were not. But it's never as simple as we might think it to be. And it really shows just how impressive how much was invested in each of these targets and identifying, in locating. I mean, I'll tell you something else, these nuclear scientists or the IRGC commanders. If you looked at some of those bombings on that initial day, you saw that like they dropped a bomb into a window in an apartment building on the fifth floor, right, they didn't take out

the whole building. They took out the room and the corner, like the southwest corner. That means they had to know which apartment the guy lives in, where his bedroom is located in the apartment, and where his bed is probably is it on this side of the room or that side of the room, because they got to make sure the bomb goes into the room. And it's a level of granular intelligence detail that we kind of take for granted, but now that we think about it, how much has

to be invested. People have to work on each one of these targets over a period of time. You have to track them, you have to learn and study what they do, where they go, who they meet with. It's incredible the detail of what has been able to be obtained here.

you need the nuclear weapon. But on the other hand, you now know that they know everything about you, that they are everywhere they've being Israel in the United States, and that they can get you no matter where you are. Do you really want to do it?

And I do wonder whether or not, at some point, either in a split between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and the army or just a sheer mass effort by the people at large, it may not be possible to move beyond the current dictatorship.

force that literally beats up people on the streets. That was aimed at trying to give the Uranian people some hope that they can actually go out to the streets and try to bring down this regime. One of the important points that Israel has made, I think consistently throughout this operation was that our issue is not with the people of Iran. The people of Iran are friends. The people of Iran, we share a rich mutual history, the Persian culture and the history of the Persian peoples. They're

an ancient people really, of amazing capabilities and history. But the problem is they've been taken hostage by this radical Islamic entity and these iatolas, the mulahs. I mean, you know, you remember, mister speaker, how before the revolution of seventy nine, Israel had an embassy into Tehran, right, I mean we were all doing business together. We had good friends there, they had good friends here. I mean that all changed when Homani came back from Paris and really took that

country in a whole different direction. And I think that that's what gives a lot of people hope, is that the Uraanian people still for the most part, want to come back to the fold. They want to be part of the free worl old, and hopefully they can break free of this reign of terror and these tyrants who have been ruling them.

unfortunately tragically no longer among the living. But Israel still fights to get back even the bodies of these hostages who have been held by Hamas for nearly two years. But really, then the question becomes, Okay, even if you've done that, how do you prevent Ramas from rebuilding? I mean, get similar questions and dilemmas to what we were just talking about. And here what's really needed is the creation of a new governing entity in Gaza. I think everyone

understands that. The question is though, who will be that governing entity be? And this is where it gets really complicated because the current coalition in Israel, led by Nasenia, who in including some of the more right wing far right parties in Israel, refuse to even talk about the prospect or possibility that the Palestinian authority led by Mahmudubas in Ramala will have any role in the day after

in Gaza. On the other hand, the Amordis and the Egyptians and the Saudis say if they're instant, the Palestinians, We're not going to come and help, so you're kind of stuck. And that's the bit of the conundrum at the moment. I think that Nizzenia, who understands that there really is not an alternative, and I think that hopefully he will show the same courage that he showed when

launching this attack on June thirteenth against Iran. He has the opportunity now to show that same courage and end this war in Gaza and not only give Israelis the opportunity to heal, because it's difficult for this country to move on. You know, we're talking on a day that seven soldiers were announced killed in Gaza. Terrible tragedy, young Israeli soldiers, but the Palestinians have also suffered a great tragedy.

We can't ignore that, right, you know, I think it's Kamas's fault, but the people of Gaza suffer and they deserve a better future as well. So Gaza has to be rehabilitated and rebuilt, and for that we need a new government and I don't want to see Israel do it, and I don't think Israel wants to do it, right,

We don't want to have control of that place. It's a place that's not friendly to us, but we need to ensure that it is a government though, that is going to not just rebuild and not just govern, but also deradicalize. That has to be a piece of this. And if we can really lead to a deradicalization, that would change textbooks, would change, newspapers, would change culture, would change the way they talk about us. And that's going

to be tough, but it can be done. The opportunities have no limits, because that's how you achieve real peace. We got to deradicalize. So there's a lot of moving parts here. But I think that we need to come aus to agree to ceasefire. We need to come as to give us back the hostages, and we need our government in Jerusalem to accept the reality that whether we like it or not, there's going to have to be some Palestinian guy who's involved in the day after in Gaza.

doesn't lose focus, because sometimes that can't happen. You finish one thing and you jump ready to the next thing. I don't blame him, He's got a lot of different balls up in the air all at once. But we're not done yet with iron We need that follow up, you know. And you know this, sir. You know, military means really important. They can help get the job done, but they're not alone going to get the job done. You need to have that political process that does follow up.

And this is the opportunity. Now they're weak, they're hurt, they're bleeding. Get them back to the table, squeeze them for a better deal, give them some carrots along the way. But you got that big stick you can still hold and say to them, listen, if you guys don't play ball, what you saw at those seven B two bombers and those twelve or fourteen GBU fifty seven massive ordinance penetrators is just the beginning in.

desires to destroy Israel the United States. But I want you to know Yokov, that I want to thank you for joining and providing an update, and I will continue to read virtually everything you write. And I want to remind our listeners that your new book, While Israel Slept how Hamas Surprise, The Most Powerful Military in the Least is available for pre order from Amazon right now and

will be out this September. And once it comes out, I'd love it if you could come back and discuss both the book and wherever we are at that point in the process. But thank you. You are a remarkably helpful student of what's going on in the Middle East.

Ganglishtree sixty. If you've been enjoying Newsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us with five stars and give us a review so others can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of Newtsworld consigner for my three free weekly columns at Ginglestree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld.