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The Peter Mandelson Interview Analysis

Jan 11, 202636 min
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Summary

The podcast analyzes Peter Mandelson's first interview since his sacking, detailing his defense regarding Jeffrey Epstein, his refusal to apologize for their continued friendship, and the fierce political and public backlash, including from Ruth Davidson. The discussion shifts to Mandelson's insights on Trump's foreign policy and Europe's need for a stronger defense posture. Later, the episode examines Kemi Badenoch's political resurgence and her bold proposal to ban social media for under-16s, exploring the policy's implications, the building pressure for tech regulation, and the potential for future Conservative-Reform pacts, introducing the concept of 'Block Britain' in the evolving UK political landscape.

Episode description

Since Peter Mandelson's sacking as US ambassador over his links to the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, he's remained silent, until now.

If you haven’t already, go back and listen to the extended version of his first and exclusive interview with Laura. It’s the previously podcast in your feed.

She questions him over Trump, Epstein, and what Number 10 really knew.

In this episode we go through what the interview was like, what he said, and why he’s saying it now.

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You can join our Newscast online community here: https://bbc.in/newscastdiscord Get in touch with Newscast by emailing newscast@bbc.co.uk or send us a WhatsApp on +44 0330 123 9480.

New episodes released every day. If you're in the UK, for more News and Current Affairs podcasts from the BBC, listen on BBC Sounds: https://bbc.in/4guXgXd

Newscast brings you daily analysis of the latest political news stories from the BBC.

The presenters were Laura Kuenssberg and Paddy O’Connell. It was made by Chris Flynn with Rufus Gray. The social producer was Joe Wilkinson. The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The weekend series producer is Chris Flynn. The assistant editor is Chris Gray. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

Transcript

Intro / Opening

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Peter Mandelson's Changed Persona

Hire high quality pros at Angie.com. Patrick. Laura Koonsberg. And you, the newscaster. Hello. Hello. It's a scoop Sunday. Peter Mann has given his first interview to you, but it's in the feed. We can listen to it. But what was he like? Peter Mandelson over the years has always been somebody who has had something of a swagger, something of a bit of dash and a bit of a long, some people might say, others might say sort of ridiculous.

silkiness and confidence and he's got a reputation as being an incredible master communicator. My impression of him when we sat down yesterday was that he has been I think quite devastated by losing this job. in the White House, working with the White House. I think he has been absolutely devastated too by the loss of his reputation because of his dealings with Jeffrey Epstein.

And I think he is at the moment a very changed person. Now, whether or not he will bounce back and clearly by deciding that he wanted to take a tiptoe into public this week. to offer his take on President Trump as well as explain what happened between him and Jeffrey Epstein. He clearly does want to move on. In fact, he said that in part of our interview. He said, I'm moving on.

But it's a very different Peter Mandelson that we encountered yesterday to the one who people have over the years seen popping up on their screens, a sort of uber confident, uber master communicator, and his critics would say an uber manipulator. too, of other politicians. I'm interested to hear how you took it, sitting in front of him. And we'll discuss the content with our own Henry at Home on this Sunday's newscast.

Newscast. Newscast from the BBC. Fatboy Slim and me in the classroom doing our violin lessons. I was the tuppletail in the class. Can I have an apology, please? I trust almost nobody. That daddy has to sometimes do strong language. Next time in Moscow. Hello, it's Paddy in the studio. It's Laura in the studio. And it's Henry at home. Henry at Home is like a thing now, isn't it? It sounds like a sitcom. Henry at Home. I wouldn't watch that if I were anyone.

I totally would, by the way. That sounds exactly the kind of thing up my street, like to the manner born, keeping up appearances, Henry at home, it just trips off the tongue. I think that might be an insult, but I'll take it. It's not, it's not. Those comparisons.

I'm a child of the 80s. That is absolutely not an insult at all. That's the highest compliment. Yes, you've been compared to Penelope Keith, Henry. Brushstrokes, another one. Anybody else remember brushstrokes? I love brushstrokes. Right, back in the news. There's been a very big development in the career of Peter Mandelson, who was sacked as the UK ambassador. And you've had the first interview with him, which we're going to talk about. We are going to talk about.

Mandelson's Epstein Claims and Criticism

There was a lot in the interview to digest and it really is worth a listen to it in full. But if you haven't got time to do that or you're listening to newscasts before you've heard the whole interview, just to take you through the main kind of headlines of what he said, he told me he never saw...

anything, any behaviour around Epstein, any young women, anything that ever gave him cause for concern. He said that Epstein and Epstein's lawyer had spent a long time convincing him that he'd done nothing wrong after he was convicted. He also said he believes he was kept separate from Epstein's sexual behavior and sex life because he was gay. So he basically said, I had no idea about what was going on in that part of his life. And I think that's probably because I'm a gay man.

He also says, although neither he nor Downing Street had known about the emails when he was given the job as American ambassador, he did say Downing Street knew everything. So essentially he was having a bit of a pop at number 10 there, although he doesn't dump on Keir Starmer in a big way, which they'll be very relieved about, I think. But he does say that Downing Street knew everything. He also said...

Look, I'm sorry that there was a system that didn't protect these young women, but he would not apologise. And I asked him a couple of times, he would not apologise, chose not to apologise for carrying on his friendship with Epstein after he had been convicted. of abusing young women so that's just a little summary of what he said during a long interview there's also lots of really fascinating stuff about how he interprets Donald Trump so that is also really important

He says that Number 10 didn't know about the emails because neither did he. So you watched it for the first time, Henry, on the TV this morning. What stood out to you? Well, it was a fascinating interview in two distinct ways because... First, you had the man who the Prime Minister had trusted to interpret and deal with America on his behalf initially, giving us his analysis of what has been...

perhaps the most in global terms, consequential week and a bit of Donald Trump's second presidency so far. And that was all quite significant. And then you also had... Peter Mandelson, the man who's been at the heart of the Labour Party, as you say, for 40 years, I think fighting to justify his presence in public life by trying to deal with... The question of why his association with Jeffrey Epstein continued for as long as it did and the nature of that association.

And it's kind of quite hard to sort of analyse them both at the same time because they're so different. I mean, I think when it comes to the questions about his association with Jeffrey Epstein, there will be some people.

that satisfied, for example, Gloria De Piero on your panel, former Labour politician and now journalist, including at GP News. I mean, she was a journalist before, she was a politician as well. But my hunch would be... that it's still going to be pretty hard for him to return to the role in public life as a sort of regular opiner and influential figure.

in public in the Labour Party that he was before he got appointed to the ambassador position. In terms of his analysis of America, I thought it was really interesting. And I think I perhaps got... And I'm interested in what you thought, Laura. He was trying to be sort of loyal, but I thought the subtext was that he's not quite sure that this government is handling what Trump has done over the past 10 days quite right.

I think that's absolutely bang on. Let's come to that perhaps in a while, because I'm interested in how you think his apology for the system, but decision not to apologise for his... friendship with Epstein after Epstein's conviction, how you think that will play publicly and also with other politicians because Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, was with us shortly after the interview.

And I have to say, I think she seemed absolutely furious that he hadn't done that. What has happened here is that those new emails were published in September.

There was new information in there, particularly relating to Peter Mandelson's suggestion that the first conviction of Jeffrey Epstein... was a wrongful conviction and that it should be challenged that wasn't information that the prime minister had at the time he appointed him ambassador to the united states as soon as he became aware of that new information he obviously acted within

hours to withdraw him from that post with immediate effect. But should Lord Mandelson, in your view, have apologised to Epstein's victims for continuing his friendship with him after Epstein's first conviction? Well, I think what we saw there... in that interview was at best deep naivety from Peter Mandelson and I think it would have gone a long way.

for the women who were subjected to the most appalling treatment at the hands of Jeffrey Epstein. For Peter to have apologised and taken that opportunity, yes I do.

Was it naive, though, too, for the government to have given him that job when his relationship with Epstein was known and he feels that he was... It seems he feels he was badly treated because there was nothing secret about his friendship with him? I think the breadth... and the nature of the relationship that Peter Mandelson had with Jeffrey Epstein only became clear at the point at which those emails were published in September of last year and that's why the Prime Minister acted swiftly.

took immediate action to remove him as the ambassador to the United States whilst there would clearly be a discussion. about due diligence before you appoint somebody to such a role. It is my understanding that the detailed information was not available. Peter, by his own admission, said basically he couldn't remember the emails, but it was there in... black and white, he basically said to Jeffrey Epstein,

I believe that this is a wrongful conviction and you should challenge it. And I think, you know, if somebody that I was associated with was in that situation, I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole, is the truth of the matter.

Post-Conviction Friendship Accountability

Yes, so there's a lot going on in this Heidi-Alexander reaction, which I think the first thing is the bombshell nature of those emails. which Peter Mandelson told you he had forgotten about and Number 10 didn't know about. And you think of everyone in your life imagining that a dead man's emails... can come back 20 years after he received them. Then you have to recall Kemi-Badenhock's intervention in the Commons. That's part of this timeline. And then on the word timeline...

It's the conviction. It's the conviction in a court, Laura and Henry, isn't it? It's not so much that I believe the lawyer, it's that in the middle of that, a court. A judge had decided that he was guilty. And I think that's what's problematic for Lord Mandelson here, although he's obviously trying to move on, is he, many people might think, can't be blamed for the fact that one of his friends...

was doing appalling things. He calls Epstein an evil monster. Where it changes is once Epstein has been convicted of doing terrible things. To then say your friends are here for you, your friends love you, fight for your early release. To carry on then for years after, contact an association. When you're somebody with a big presence in public life.

That's where it becomes tricky. And I think, Henry, that even some people in his own... his own party, the Labour Party, or I think some people who are inclined to feel warmly or to feel sympathy towards him are going to find... that bit of it remains very hard to understand or justify. Yeah, and I thought a really fascinating exchange was when you asked Peter Mandelson about his sacking and he said that he understood why he'd been sacked.

And I think that was Peter Mandelson, the former spin doctor, the former senior lieutenant of not just Tony Blair, but I think it's often forgotten Neil Kinnock before him as well. You know, that Peter Mandelson would... Obviously, I think, have advised a leader who he was close to to sack someone who was embroiled in the same issue that the Peter Mandelson as the UK ambassador to the US.

became abroad. I mean, perhaps that's unfair, but that's certainly my reading of that section of it. But I do think you can also understand why Lord Mandelson might feel frustrated with number 10, because actually, other than the content of the emails... The fact that Lord Mandelson had continued an association with Jeffrey Epstein after his conviction was already in the public domain. What the emails told us was that in vivid detail was that Lord Mandelson thought that Jeffrey Epstein.

was innocent after his conviction. Well, it kind of only makes sense for him to continue his association with Jeffrey Epstein if he thought he was innocent. And I think Number 10 never quite managed to explain why... They'd thought that association was OK in the first place. Then they got emails describing the fact that Lord Mandelson thought Jeffrey Epstein was innocent after his conviction rather than guilty and continued that association and decided at that point to sack him. And we know why.

It was because the political pressure became unbearable and many people would say it should have been unbearable beforehand. But nevertheless, I think, you know, there are...

still issues for number 10 here. But of course, they've kind of gone because they sacked him and that's why they sacked him. It is nonetheless awkward for them that this comes back up, you know, just a moment when number 10 is... you know, trying so hard and so determined to try to get onto the issues that they think are going to try to cheer up the public, whether it's, you know, money for potholes that Heidi Alexander was...

talking about today or the support for energy bills or this that and the other you know yet again this raises its head the foreign situation is absolutely head spinning and dominating so many headlines And again, inevitably, they are going to find themselves with headlines about something that was deeply, deeply embarrassing. But I just wonder how you think people are going to respond to it maybe more broadly. I mean, Paddy, you had the former Tory leader, Ruth Davis, Tory Scottish leader.

Not a former Tory leader. There were people who hoped that one day she might become this Tory leader, but politics has taken a different turn. She's now in the House of Lords and Ruth Davidson was with you on Broadcasting House this morning. We have a panel. of guests who we invite in advance. And it's by coincidence that Baroness Davidson was on today. She is married to a woman. And therefore, when it came to...

address all of our guests today. She was simply one of the people who was responding, but it's obviously relevant to this conversation as she reacts specifically to the section when Peter Mannerson told you that he was treated differently because he was gay. not use your sexuality as a shield here, Peter. There is no way that Epstein was holding straight parties and gay parties. I don't for a second believe that somebody is astute and is switched on.

as Peter Mandelson can't make the link between going to someplace nicknamed, widely nicknamed, Piedow Island on an aeroplane called the Lolita Express, was in some way completely in the dark. Now, obviously, I... I don't know what Peter saw or what he didn't see, but I think that, and have been continually aggrieved in something that was...

deeply troubling about young women, vulnerable young women, being exploited by rich, bulletproof men that the only people that have ever been prosecuted in this has been a woman. Now, it's worth saying Peter Madison did say in the interview, he said, I never saw anything. I never saw young women. He said some of the times that he stayed at Epstein's properties, there were two middle aged housekeepers there. He said also Epstein himself wasn't always there.

So he said very adamantly he never saw anything. There were never young women floating around. However, it's interesting to hear Ruth Davidson respond in that way, saying, look, don't put your sexuality out there as part of this conversation. Just to return to the...

Mandelson's Geopolitical Analysis

sort of other half of the interview, which is Lord Mandelson speaking as a former UK ambassador to the US. I mean, we should just dwell briefly on what he said about Greenland. Lord Mandelson appears to be confident that Donald Trump is not going to invade Greenland essentially at least by force but he also did suggest that there is going to end up being some sort of resolution to this situation in which the US has a much bigger role in securing or policing

the Arctic, stopping China and Russia from having a role there. I thought that was really interesting. And I just think one thing worth mentioning is that just a few days before Christmas, Number 10 announced who the... successor to lord mandelson will be and it's a man called christian turner who most newscasters won't have heard of and they won't have heard of him because unlike lord mandelson he's a career diplomat and i think it's just worth saying the chronology of this

Number 10 didn't decide our ambassador to the US must be Peter Mandelson. They decided we need a different kind of ambassador in the Trump presidency. We need... a politician, someone who is different to the profile of person you get in the Foreign Office. So they didn't just interview Lord Madison, they also interviewed George Osborne.

former Conservative Chancellor. I think we're led to understand that David Miliband had conversations about it, former Labour Foreign Secretary, that Cathy Ashton, the former Labour politician who had a big role in the EU, was spoken to about it. So I do just think it's really interesting.

at this time of big flux, to say the least, in the international situation, that Downing Street and the Foreign Office... reverted to type i'm christian turner is very distinguished uh former ambassador to various places but it is quite interesting that you have lord mandelson a former politician interpreting what donald trump is saying at least to some degree as bluster and i just am curious

whether the new inhabitant of the role steeped unlike lord manderson in the foreign office will end up having a different perspective and how number 10 will come to value or not value that advice because one thing that everybody said at the time that lord manderson was being sacked was that they thought he was doing a very good job. Also, he wrote in The Spectator a piece about how Europe, this is Europe's moment.

which it's losing, to step up and be quick, swift, strong. And that's in a lot of the Sunday papers. Part of our job here on Sunday's newscast is the best of broadcast and the best of print. And there's a lot of writing today. about how Europe's not got its accurate mojo at the moment in dealing with the White House. And I think that's very clear. That's why Peter Mandelson was willing this week to step back in front of a microphone, which...

Europe's Need for Stronger Defense

to newscasters he has not been willing to come in front of a microphone up until this point and I think because he wanted to share and tell people this he believes an important message about how to interpret Donald Trump and how to respond to donald trump and one of the things he said to us is like they're

I know fine well, there are people in this country, and I'm paraphrasing, who would rather clutch their pearls. He did use that phrase. Who would rather clutch their pearls than actually deal with the realities of the world. But we have to deal with the world as it is now. There is no point.

He says worrying about Donald Trump's tone and how he says things. The point here is that Europe must show to be taken seriously. They have to spend more on hard power. They have to invest more in the military. We have to take a more sort of muscular approach. And he didn't say it rudely, but he made it very clear that he doesn't think that the UK's plans to spend more on defence are anything like as detailed as they are.

as they ought to be in this context. And I wrote a bit about that for the website yesterday. That is clearly, and we've talked about it a lot in the last couple of years, This issue is becoming more and more and more and more pressing. Yes, the government has put in a very significant increase to defence spending, but where the money is going to come from is not clear after the next couple of years. And there's reports in the last few days that there's a...

gaping hole of more than 20 billion pounds, nearly 30 billion pounds in the existing defence budget. So I think that's a message that he also really wanted to land. And I think newscasters are going to hear other people. Using that and using that argument more and more in the coming months is an argument the Conservatives are already making.

And privately, there are more people in labour circles who sort of say, oh, gosh, yes, it is. It's all very difficult. We're going to have to kind of find money somewhere. But we know what the state of the book says. We know what the level of the debt is. We know what the level of welfare spending is. We know how much people want to spend money on hospitals and schools. But if the government's promises on spending on defence are to be kept...

that's going to mean either lots of money being cut from otherwise or borrowed or coming from tax. Well, I wonder if we should change the subject now.

Badenoch's Influence and Social Media Ban

because you also had a leader interview. Yes. With Kemi Badenoch. Yes, next episode in the box set. In the box set of leader interviews. And Henry, over to you to tell us what... kind of kemi bay not we got there was a period in her political leadership when she was being laughed at as conservative leader and i mentioned earlier in this newscast how one of the defining moments

was when she went after Keir Starmer over Peter Mandelton. So what kind of Kemi Badenoch presented herself to the nation today, Henry? The post-PMQs at which she went... for Keir Starmer over Peter Mandels and Kemi Badenock. I mean, I think that was, by coincidence or by consequence, the turning point in Kemi Badenock's leadership, actually.

because it was the first time she clearly landed some blows on the Prime Minister and she grew in confidence. It was very shortly before party conference where she gave an excellent speech. And she is not a laughingstock anymore. She was a laughingstock. frankly, for the majority of her time as leader of the Conservative Party. And more to the point, there have now been a clutch of polls in the new year, in this new year, in which they've been ahead of Labour.

uh in second place uh and if that becomes a trend i think that will have quite a big uh impact on the conversations around the Labour leadership. But anyway, Kemi Badenock actually came armed with a news story, quite a significant one, which I think we'll be talking about for a while, which is that she said, like Australia, the UK should ban under-16s. from accessing social media platforms. That is an interesting shift in policy from the conservatives. I think it will pile pressure.

on the Labour government, some of whose MPs already want them to do the same. And I wouldn't be at all shocked if this is government policy by the time of the next election. You do get the sense, actually, when you talk to people in Labour about this, and, you know, we've talked a lot about it the weekends, haven't we, that there's just a hint that they're... kind of looking for a bit of a way out on it, you know, because this has been building and bubbling and today a teaching union came out.

Lots of in support of this. Lots of campaigners have been calling for it a while. Then Australia moves in and the Australian government under Anthony Albanese is something of a kindred spirit to the Labour government here. And you just get a sense, especially after the row over the grok. AI platform behavior this week. You just have a bit of a hint that the government is kind of looking for a way to toughen up these laws and to make a move here without too much embarrassment.

We don't know if that's going to be the case, but there's going to be action in Parliament because the Tories are going to try and get this through the House of Lords and then... get it back into the Commons. There's another vote coming as well about banning phones in schools, using the law to do that rather than just saying to headteachers, oh, you should probably ban them.

And you just get this building sense. But it's really interesting, Paddy, from another point of view, because it's not a very Tory policy.

theoretically, if you think, well, don't they stand for freedom of speech and should be up to parents, not the government, to tell families what to do. Yes, she's trying to speak in doorstepable issues, it seems to me, because she's also said she'd abolished... many business rates and now she says she's going to ban social media use for under 16 these are simple sentences which define policy and put some

idea in voters mind who she is what she stands for and I suppose the interesting thing is for all of us is that we know social media can be a cesspit and we navigate it as adults But the question is for loads of our listeners, how do you navigate it as a child? And what is the responsibility?

on the parent and what is the responsibility on the state? So, I mean, it is, that's a conservative issue, family issues. It is. And she says, look, that's the distinction. Adults can do what they like within the law. Kids should not be left vulnerable and parents are screaming out for help.

What's interesting is whether you're talking to people about it in government or indeed people about it in the opposition parties, the comparison's been made to me that it's a bit like having seatbelts in cars. No one's necessarily going to go out and do it on their own.

And actually, sometimes you need government to step in and have a rule, even though you don't necessarily want to force people to do it, even if you don't want to be on any state and finger wagging. Sometimes there are issues where it has to come to government to step in. The flip side of this is, is it realistic to think that you can keep under 16s off social media?

Is there a risk if you do it that all they'll do is to go to darker places on the internet or to platforms that aren't regulated? Because kids are smart and they can get around these things. And is it even remotely? workable so this is not a kind of slam dunk you know this is not a straightforward issue and of course we would never you know we're not saying it's a good thing or a bad thing but from a political point of view as henry suggested

There's no doubt the pressure on government to move on this is building. Tomorrow, there's going to be guidance from, I think, the health secretary and the education secretary about screen time for under fives. But it does feel to me, Henry, that this whole area is becoming harder and hotter for the government to deal with, not least because it's senior levels in the government.

Growing Pressure for Tech Regulation

There's a real scepticism about whether the regulator Ofcom is doing a good enough job at trying to make sure all the harms are as minimised as they can be. I mean, that last point is definitely true. about frustration with the regulator. I'm glad you said that. Sorry, I didn't mean it like that. I've heard that too. I've encountered that frustration as well. That's definitely true. The last part of what Laura said is definitely true. The rest of it.

I said it like that because all through what Laura was saying, I was thinking that I was going to make a different point. But I also just wanted to say I've encountered that frustration with the regulator Ofcom as well. But the additional point that I was going to make.

was that that pressure is building, I think, on the government, even this morning, because while Laura was interviewing Kemi Badenog... uh an influential viewer decided to use social media uh to say that they agreed with kemi badenock and that was andy burnham who as newscosters all know is the mayor of greater manchester and is also the great prince across the water for at least some people. And...

That's quite interesting and that's quite significant. Laura ended up putting it to Heidi Alexander, which drew attention to the fact that the government is not just now in a different place to the Conservative Party, it is also in a different place to some parts of the Labour movement. And that is a bit of an uncomfortable position for them.

So this is really news will eat itself. We're on the podcast talking about the broadcast and watching the broadcast was the mayor of Greater Manchester, the former Labour MP and minister. What did he say? Did he say, I... can we be not right we should ban smart social media use pretty much yeah essentially i don't have the exact words in front of me uh but uh

Hang on, I've got it now. Yeah, just read it out. He said, I find myself agreeing with a lot of what Kenny Badenock is saying about children and social media. It seems to me parents would welcome a cross-party consensus.

around much bolder action i mean that is andy burnham saying the labor party should join the consensus that the conservative party is forming here around much bolder action which is to say banning social media for under-16s so Interesting that he felt the need to say that publicly when his colleague in the cabinet is sitting on the telly.

Very interesting. And I think, you know, polling suggests this would be popular. Polling doesn't always give you a true readout of how things would actually pan out. But polling suggests some elements of this would be popular. But, you know, let's see. But I think as ever. you know, it's one of the myriad ways where

our relationship with technology as a society is becoming more and more and more and more of the debate and the conversation in our politics, which is just a reflection of how we live our lives. Technology is more of a part of our lives and therefore it's more of a part of our politics. And I have to say...

It's not necessarily something that many people in politics, whether in Whitehall or Holyrood or Cardiff or Storm or anywhere else, there's not many people around who are experts in tech. And it was interesting, the whole debate about Grok this week. As I understand it, it's not the only app where you can do the terrible thing of nudifying an image, but the kind of giant political sparks start flying because it's Elon Musk's.

app and then all the politicians who spend a lot of time on X then get in a flap about what to do about X and you can see how this just becomes a kind of Catherine wheel spinning round and round but with lots of people. who aren't necessarily versed in the realities of technology I'm not suggesting they don't know what they're talking about I'm not a technological expert either I just think there's a lot of debate

Speculating on Future Political Alliances

in Westminster about tech that doesn't necessarily have a full understanding. I want to move on to ask you about reform, but a useful way I've been finding this, who's not an expert, is to imagine myself in the future. Looking back, and I think we will look back at this time and we will say that the Australian decision...

was a tipping point in this argument. I think that's helping me understand where policy is moving. I like to do that sometimes to understand what on earth I'm thinking. So with that in mind, can you both brief us? Because I didn't see it.

on the issue of will there be a pact between the Conservatives and reform? And whatever Kenny Bainock says on BBC One, does that automatically rule out a pact in the future? But to my point about the future, what's she saying about a pact? Well, she said this morning that reformer... authoritarian and that she would never have any deal with them um if we go to 2029 let's put ourselves into the TARDIS

which I think can go forward, not just backwards, but I'm not a big Doctor Who fan, so who knows? So correct me if I am inevitably wrong. Can you imagine, dear newscaster, that Labour doesn't have a majority? Reform doesn't have a majority. The Tories don't have a majority. But the Tories have two options. Do they say...

We would never work with the Reform Party because they are authoritarian and ghastly, as Camille Budenot was saying this morning. And therefore, we will miss out on the opportunity to get bums on seats in government. And we will miss out on the opportunity to get the Labour Party out of power.

Or do they hold their nose and say, OK, let's do some kind of a deal with reform in order to get some bums on seats back in government to get Labour out of power and in order to return to having influence over actually what? is decided in this country by government rather than just being able to put political pressure on. Newscaster, pick your version. But I don't think that what Kemi Badenoch says in January 2026...

is necessarily an accurate predictor of what that decision might be. I think it also bites just before a general election as well, because if it were... And this is not actually, as it stands, an implausible scenario, though, of course, we're several years away and lots of things can happen. But if it seemed possible just before a general election that a split vote on the right was going to...

make it much likelier that the Labour Party would remain in government. I think you have to ask yourself this. Would the majority of Conservative MPs rather Nigel Farage became Prime Minister or Keir Starmer got another five years as Prime Minister?

I actually think the answer right now, I haven't asked all of them, but I'm pretty sure the answer right now is that they'd rather Nigel Farage as prime minister. And I think that's a bit underappreciated because that wouldn't necessarily have been the case with some past conservative parliamentary parties and some past Labour leaders.

and some past incarnations of Nigel Farage. But I think that is where the Conservative Party in Parliament is broadly now. And I think that means that there would be, if the polling landscape remained roughly similar to where it is now, quite a lot of frenzied conversations in the run-up to a general election to ensure avoiding a split between two parties of the right. Two other things to say. Don't forget in 2019, it was Nigel Farage's decision.

to withdraw. Some candidates were to stand back in lots of seats that landed Boris Johnson with an enormous majority. Well, it seemed enormous at the time, majority of 80. Important fact number one. Important fact number two, if, as Henry says, the polling landscape remains roughly the same, I think a lot of the run into the next general election is going to be about the possibilities of who would do a deal with who.

That's going to be a conversation about Labour and the Lib Dems. Maybe what about Labour and the Greens? Or Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens? Because of multi-party Britain. Well... I think because we should introduce a new concept, because of block Britain, which I think is different to multi-party Britain, because multi-party somehow, I'll probably get told off by John Curtis, never a good place to be.

it's a sort of psychological difference i think with a multi-party thing because then you somehow in your head or in my head anyway they're sort of all rivals it's kind of like the grand national I just wonder, and did we talk about this last week or did I dream it? Oh, sorry. Well, I'm trying again to ram it down your throat. If what we're looking at really is this two big blocks.

That's kind of different, isn't it, to the horse race of multi-party Britain? They're not mutually exclusive. No, they're not. You can have multi-party and blocks. Just block Britain's my new phrase. It sounds like a reality show on Channel 5, doesn't it?

Henry, do you see a coalition on the centre-left and a coalition on the right? Is that the sort of block world? I think it's entirely plausible, yeah, absolutely. For all the reasons we were discussing last week about how... the conversation in the right up to the next general election is going to be about who do you want to stop or who do you want to block with a K and you know which block do you want to join with a C to do that

Double Block Britain. Henry at Home on Double Block Britain. It's funny because there was... It's definitely a TV series. I know you're a collector of grammatical moments in podcasts. There was another moment when we were clutching... pearls and clutching poles. That happened earlier and I wanted to store it up to say I was listening to Henry. I feel we're very nearly at the end but I wonder can we just look ahead? There's quite an important leader selection going on this week, Henry. What else?

Reform UK's Scottish Political Ambition

How should I mark the days of the week looking forward? Well, among all the usual sort of things that are going on in Parliament this week, Reform UK, of course, we've just been talking about our choosing. formerly their leader in Scotland. And that's significant, of course, because we've talked a lot and we're going to talk a lot more about what's going on around the country in the run up to those big elections in May. and the former Tory peer, Lord Malcolm Offord,

has defected to Reform UK and he's going to give up his ermine gown in order to stand as a member of the Scottish Parliament for reform. There have been quite a lot of suggestions that therefore it's likely he's going to be chosen as the leader. But we will see. But it is interesting reform now see themselves as a potentially very dominant political force in Scotland. You would not have said a couple of years ago that Nigel Farage was somebody who was going to do well.

in what we traditionally see as the Scottish political scene, that now is something that has... Changed. Yeah, I know. If I wanted to really annoy you in the closing seconds... Tell me about Scottish politics. It wouldn't be to tell you. It would be to say that it's affecting the Tartan Wall. Oh, no! You can be sure that this is... No, but I'm doing it deliberately to annoy you. I'm not introducing...

in the tartan wall at all okay as a thing i'm just saying it would annoy you if i were to now it would annoy me a lot henry lucky you didn't henry at home it's goodbye from from us here henry and goodbye goodbye goodbye Newscast. Newscast from the BBC. Well, thank you for making it to the end of another Newscast. You clearly ooze stamina. Can I gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds, and then, without having to do anything else...

Our meandering chats will miraculously make its way to your phone.

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