Friday 18th July 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Who is going to ultimately benefit from Donald Trump’s policies – the tariffs and the bIg Beautiful Bill. Phil Dobbie talks to economist Phil Suttle, in Washington DC, about the future for the US economy and the impact on tariffs om the global economy. The uncertainty will almost certainly slow down US investment, the exception being th...
Jul 18, 2025•32 min•Season 9Ep. 157
Friday 18th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit a new high today, passing 65,300for the first time. Why? Well, the economic data out over night was largely good news. Retail sales were stronger than expected in June, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index perked up, initial jobless claims fell. As Phil suggests to NAB’s Gavin Friend, there was a lot to like. The threat of looming tariffs seems to be largely ignored, a...
Jul 17, 2025•15 min•Season 9Ep. 156
Thursday17th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Donald Trump made a TV career from firing people and there has been increasing speculation lately that he is ready to dump the Fed chair. That speculation was heightened on Wednesday when lawmakers claimed he had pointed to a letter asking Jerome Powell to leave. But he denied that when quizzed by the press, saying he’ll only go if he had to because of fraud. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent...
Jul 16, 2025•13 min•Season 9Ep. 155
Wednesday 16th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump suggested that the latest US inflation numbers are weak and that the Fed should cut by3 points - presumably 300bp. But, as NAB’s ken Crompton outlines, the data is more likely to delay the Fed. Why? Because markets responded positively to the data initially, on further examination it’s clear that inflation is picking up in areas most impacted by tariffs. A cut at ...
Jul 15, 2025•17 min•Season 9Ep. 154
Tuesday 15th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Once again, US markets seem unphased by the log list of tariffs from the US president, perhaps because he has indicated he is willing to negotiate, and it’s just seen as a negotiating tactic. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about whether we’ll see signs of the impact in US inflation data today. Yesterday’s data from China showed the resilience of their export markets, and where ...
Jul 14, 2025•18 min•Season 9Ep. 153
Monday 14th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Over the weekend President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting from August 1st. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent suggests, it’s another delay in the implementation of tariffs and it has stopped the EU from enforcing retaliatory measures planned for this week whilst negotiations continue. More concerning for markets might be the Trump administration’s moves to oust Jerome...
Jul 13, 2025•17 min•Season 9Ep. 152
Friday 11h July 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The ABS is abandoning its monthly retail trade numbers, in favour of a more in-depth analysis of consumption in the revamped monthly Household Spending report. There’s a fundamental difference between the two. The Retail Trade data was based on a time consuming survey of retailers, the Household Spending report uses real data from banks,...
Jul 11, 2025•26 min•Season 9Ep. 151
Friday 11th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Once again markets have shrugged off a tariff proclamation from President Trump. 50% could be levied on imports from Brazil, not because of trade (Brazil has a deficit) but in response to a trial against former President Bolsonaro. It’s a new direction for Trump’s tariff policy, but markets have taken it in their stride, with US equities rising today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there ar...
Jul 10, 2025•20 min•Season 9Ep. 150
Thursday 10th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction which, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says did move yields lower, although those moves had started ahead of the auction. The Fed m...
Jul 09, 2025•15 min•Season 9Ep. 149
Wednesday 9th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s a threat that Europe’s 20% base tariff will rise to 50%. Markets have responded cautiously, perhaps too cautiously...
Jul 08, 2025•18 min•Season 9Ep. 148
Tuesday 8th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs for a handful of countries, closely aligned to the Liberation Day rates. Of those announced Japan and South Korea are front and centre, each subject to a 25% base rate. 30% is being reapplied to South Africa. Although US equities are well down, NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market response was rather tame. Perhaps because the imp...
Jul 07, 2025•15 min•Season 9Ep. 147
Monday 7th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The letters go in the post today, apparently, containing the personally selected tariff that will be applied to US trading nations. The good news is that they probably won’t apply until 1st August, giving time for negotiations. Meanwhile, Scott Bessent says the US is aiming to reach a deal with 18 nations. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this all adds to uncertainty and it’s hard to imagine t...
Jul 06, 2025•17 min•Season 9Ep. 146
Friday 4th July 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . President Trump has fallen in approval ratings since taking office. Does that mean he’ll lose seats in the House or the Senate in the Mid-Terms next year? It’s still a way off, of course, but it would be useful to know whether the President’s policy agenda will continue at pace for a year and a half, or three and a half years. Dr Debra L...
Jul 04, 2025•25 min•Season 9Ep. 145
Friday 4th July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded to what seemed like a strong set of payrolls numbers in the US, although the rate of new private jobs fell. Still, the unemployment rate also nudged lower. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what this means for market pricing for Fed cuts this year. The rest of the day’s data from the US were also largely positive, including the ISM Services index, the weekly jobless ...
Jul 03, 2025•15 min•Season 9Ep. 144
Thursday 3rd July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit a new high, helped by a post from President Trump saying he has tied up a trade deal with Vietnam. The bad news is that the deal still hits them with tariffs of between 20 and 40%, whilst accepting US goods tariff-free. And the President says a deal with Japan is looking unlikely, but that could be simple ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through t...
Jul 02, 2025•15 min•Season 9Ep. 143
Wednesday 2nd July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump's big, beautiful bill has passed through the Senate with the narrowest of margins and now goes back to the House with a chance that it will get approval by the 4th of July. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the passage of the bill could be partially responsible for the US dollar reaching a multi-year low today given the deficit implications that the bill provides. Rodrigo ...
Jul 01, 2025•17 min•Season 9Ep. 142
Tuesday 1st July 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Canada has caved (the White House’s choice of words) over their digital services tax, so trade talks can resume with the US. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what this means for other countries with the same tax - many countries in Europe, the UK and, yes, Australia too. President Trump has said he sees no reason to extend the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs, and those countries t...
Jun 30, 2025•16 min•Season 9Ep. 141
Monday 30th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a lot of focus on the US this week. The Big Beautiful Bill could reach it’s finish line before Independence Day on Friday. There are reports of progress towards trade deals with the likes of the India and the EU, even if Canada’s deal talks stalled over US objections to their digital services tax. And US payroll numbers are out on Thursday (a day early this time). There’s al...
Jun 29, 2025•16 min•Season 9Ep. 140
Friday 27th June 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week Phil looks into the challenge of an ageing population. The most recent edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook devoted a chapter to what it calls the ‘Silver Economy’. We tend to see the declining ratio of taxpaying adults as a negative for the economy - fewer people working for the upkeep of a growing number of oldies. Je...
Jun 27, 2025•22 min•Season 9Ep. 139
Friday 27th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar has hit a new multi-year low. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about some of the factors driving the US currency down further. Part of it could be the speculation that President Trump will appoint Jerome Powell’s successor as Fed Chair, in the hope that he can guide markets early. There’s also increasing evidence of foreign investors ditching long end government and ...
Jun 26, 2025•19 min•Season 9Ep. 138
Thursday 26th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It won’t come as a complete surprise that NATO members agreed to up their defence spending to 5 percent on Wednesday. The bigger surprise might be if they keep that commitment once President Trump is no longer in office. We saw a bigger response locally to the softer than expected Australian CPI number for May. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk about the market response and ex...
Jun 25, 2025•18 min•Season 9Ep. 137
Wednesday 25th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil prices are back down near multi-year lows, so is the US dollar, whilst equities are bouncing higher and getting close to all-time highs. Infact that happened for several well-known tech stocks. NAB’s Sally Auld says it reflects an assumption that the worst of the Iran-Israel conflict is over, although a New York Times report this morning suggests the US bombing only put Iran’...
Jun 24, 2025•18 min•Season 9Ep. 136
Tuesday 24th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB An Iranian attack on US air bases in Qatar and Iraq actually forced oil prices lower. Much lower. Why? Well, even before it was confirmed by President Trump, it appears the attacks were orchestrated. That was confirmed when the President posted as much on social media, adding that ‘Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourag...
Jun 23, 2025•16 min•Season 9Ep. 135
Monday 23rd June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You think it’d be a choppy start for markets today, following the weekend bombing of Iranian uranium enrichment facilities by the US. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil why the response might be a little tamer than you'd expect. He explains how many were aware that a strike was imminent based on readily available Google data. They also discuss the worrying rise in Japanese ...
Jun 22, 2025•18 min•Season 9Ep. 134
Friday 20th June 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Research by CEDA (the Committee for Economic Development of Australia) shows that in the last fifty years or so the construction industry has not made the productivity gains experienced in manufacturing. In fact, the dwellings made by each construction worker has fallen by about 50 percent since the 1970s. James Brook, an economist at C...
Jun 20, 2025•26 min•Season 9Ep. 133
Friday 20th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil prices are still elevated over the question on whether the US will side with Israel in the war with Iran and the possible repercussions of such a move. But the US President has left the door open for negotiations, now saying he’ll decide on US involvement in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept rates on hold, whilst the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank both...
Jun 19, 2025•17 min•Season 9Ep. 132
Thursday 19th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed agree unanimously to keep rates on hold, but the expectation of two cuts this year was enough for shares to rise a little today before finishing flat, no doubt driven down by geopolitical uncertainty and more weak data. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the one central bank that did surprise was the Riksbank. A cut was priced in, and was delivered, but the market was surprised a...
Jun 18, 2025•16 min•Season 9Ep. 131
Wednesday 18th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are squeamish today as fears mount that the US will become more involved in the war between Israel and Iran. Certainly, the optimism that the whole affair will be over in a hurry has diminished, with the US dollar higher, oil much higher and equities taking a hit. NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are unnerved by the President’s comments as parts of the US military complex co...
Jun 17, 2025•14 min•Season 9Ep. 130
Tuesday 17th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets seem optimistic that a resolution between Israel and Iran will be found. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s a general feeling that Iran has its back against the wall and is trying to communicate that they want to d e-escalate the situation. Despite today’s market reaction, there doesn’t seem any evidence of a slowdown in the hostilities. Meanwhile, a Bank of America note ove...
Jun 16, 2025•17 min•Season 9Ep. 129
Monday 16th June 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Since Israel fired bombs into Iran on Friday there has been bombardment on both sides. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about how the US dollar has resumed its safe haven status, with the Aussie losing ground as risk-off sentiment rises. Phil asks whether this pattern could worsen as the war seems set for more escalation rather than a rapid resolution. It will be the focus of the G7 summit o...
Jun 15, 2025•14 min•Season 9Ep. 128
