Mr. Money Talk

Good afternoon. This is Josh Arnold, mister Money Talk with Judd Arnold here to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, how you should position your investment dollars including your IRA in four oh one K. Don't hesitate to give us a call at nine five two nine two five five six o eight. That's nine five two nine two five five six oh eight. You always get straight talk, not sugar coded advice. Before we begin, usual

disclaimer pass performance and no guarantee of future results. Markets are volatile. Opinions that we share are hours and hours alone. Any stocks that we discuss may not be suitable for or you. Nothing should be considered investment advice. Please consult with the financial advisor before making any investment decisions. What a week. Wow, I am exhausted today, Judd. I'm energized. I am exhausted now you could be energized. I'm a little a little exhausted just from all

that has transpired. That this week and next week is going to be more more of the same. We'll see the big shiny headline, the shiny headline. You're going to talk talk about the shiny headline and all the success you've had with one of your don't talk about the financial that's not the shiny headline. That's individual stock stuff. The shiny headline is what the heck is going

on at the tail end of the US government bond curve. Oh, the tail end of the US bond curves that it is ten year yields and thirty yield year yields are screaming higher. Well that that that would mean that the yield curve might be flattening or even going positive, And wouldn't that be good for the economy. Is what's called a bear steepener, because the back end is going up to meet the front end. As the bond vigilantes are now debating, if the FED doesn't might not go far enough. The Fed might

not go the economy is too strong. Bond yields off is brutal for long duration assets. So of course, semiconductors at the Estimation Deck had a tough week this week, down seven points. And the ARC Fund, the longest duration of anything, has just gotten smoked too. It was up fifty percent at the highs. I think it's only a thirty six percent year to date.

Now, that's that's really that's really really tough. For the ARC fund, but and also with with the long duration assets, particularly the Semiconductor index and or TEX stocks coming down, they too have lost long during the Nasdaq one hundred. The QQQ ETF is down for the quarters white blowout earnings with the long duration assets, particularly as the semiconductors, which if interest rates are going up, the semiconductors and some other tech stocks tend to sell off.

They tend to sell off, and they are selling off now. It is also August. Once you get into the second week in August, it's the dog days of summer. Well, markets are usually weak. People are in the Hamptons. Well, we'll call it the varsity is in the Hamptons. The junior varsity is in the in the office handling the trading, and usually they're not able to make a major buyer cell decision until until after Labor Day. Were they comes back. September they come back, not just the varsity

quote unquote comes back. September is a big conference month. It's when you typically get all the companies meeting with investors and you get your first soundbites on how Q three is looking well. And typically Q three is one of the weaker quarters during the course of the year for most most companies, and September September October the two worst months of the stock market typically not not the whole

whole month of October, just part of the month of October. But I've always looked at September as a very short months because you have the last last week of the summer, which tends to be a long weekend with Labor Day. Then you have the Jewish holidays, and there is an old saying, old market saying, uh, sell on Russia Shanna and by on yon kipour,

and that does happen during during the month of September. September historically as negative returns is one of the only month that is a negative return if you go back hundreds of years. Now I'm going to ask ask this question, Uh, wouldn't it make sense then to sell everything right now and then come back in Oh, here we go. You know, nobody's a smart you stay invested. Look we are. There's a lot of people who trade short term our edges that were longer term. If you buy good companies, you

hold them for a long period of time, you do great. We do like to trade around the margins, but you're just over you're just over complicating things. There's also the tax leakage issue of what you're talking about, less is more. Well, that's why we do like to keep cash. Cash on the sideline is part of our asset allocation of keeping up up to thirty percent in cash and the balance invested in we'll call it high quality world companies.

Uh, and my focus happens to be in companies involved in the Internet, leisure related to industries, China related industries, real assets such as energy and real estate, and then doing a small bit of short term trading looking for some trading opportunities as they present themselves. Absolutely, well, it's been a good year. It's been a good three five, seven year. It's been it's been nice. We we concentrate, we buy a few stocks and we u you gotta got some nice returns. Happy to talk to any of

about them. You and I are the two largest investors in our strategy, so we are aligned with clients, as they say. But back back back back to the fund, to the to the exciting week. Not only did you have a lot of earnings come coming in and many companies actually have beat and raised just this past past week, but you also had the CPI report. CPI was better than expected. That's consumer price in next that was better than expect Its inflation was lower PPI. The producer price in the next was

a little bit hot, a little bit hot. Well, of course, of course it was a little bit hot. The price of energy has gone up all that as we talk macros though rates at the back end of the curve, the ten year and thirty year bond trending higher at highs for the highs for the year. Oil also you know, bottom just below seventy.

Now we're mid eighties and it's looking looking a little high. And I do have some energy exposure, and well, one of one of the things I'm talking about about energy that I have read is that for US production is actually up, US Produssians all a little The biggest thing is non US productions up a lot more, and OPEC is really cut back to sort of absorb that.

Now demands a little bit higher too. But we have what's brewing here, and this is part of my energy thesis that we we've talked about, which is we just have an invest in oil and gas right nine years and we're at that point with demand with shale p game that, Yeah, oil can really run away. The right tail risk is to the upside. So that is something that's good for the sector, bacity economy. Right now, we're sort of in the goldilocks zone. I'm not going to say happen.

You know, how do you how necessarily do you say that oil is or energy assets are bad bad for the economy? Well, oil goes through one hundred then acts as a regressive tack on consumers. Suppose and I hedge for that. If you're an inventors old own a little bit of oil. It's also inflationary obviously, well, both inflationary and deflationary. It's inflationary and that the cost of goods goes up, it's deflationary and events that man, that

really shows the consumer. Fifty percent of the bottom point tile of income, fifty percent goes to the energy costs. If you're a poor person in this country, which is just you know, tuk to be a poor person anywhere, fifty percent of your money feel into your heating, electric and gasville. Oh well, I'd like to talk some more, some more about energy, some ways to invest in energy, as well as dealing with this pullback in the market and Also, one of the things that I had read is one

major hitge fund player. I do believe that was Bill Ackman of Persian Square is short the long bond. Yeah, he's betting a higher interest rate. Quack, can we come back. We'll talk about that and more. This is Josh Arnold Money Talk with Judd Arnold. Give us a call nine to five two nine two five five six o eight. You'll always get straight talk,

not sugarcoaded advice. Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd arn experienswing your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual farms, how you should position your investment dollars including your IRA in four oh one K do give us a call nine five two nine two five five six o eight. That's nine five two

nine two five five six oh eight. We ended the last segment talking about one of the major hedge fund investors, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square, going short, or betting that the long bond would decrease in value and interest rates would go up, and so far his bet is paying off. The long bond measured by the TLT has gone even in this past week, from ninety

eight dollars a share to ninety seven dollars and thirty seven sets. That's a significant sell off for a bond yielder at a high, and the ten year in third year, I think they're at a twelve month high. And what the bond market is saying, we defeated inflations, but the economy is accelerating, which will inevitably lead to inflation. And they're worried that the Fed will make a policy mistake and neither cut rates or not hike rates more to slow

the economy. That's what the bond market is saying. Well, that almost sounds sounds conflicting or two conflicting thoughts in one, what do you want from me? You got a strong economy, interest rate, the back end rates go up, strong economy, they go up. The US economy is looking pretty good. We did have a slightly weak jobless claim number. But the no landing scenario, you know, we debated whether it's hard landing soft landing.

Looks like no landing session is at least three months out. The reason we can say that is nobody sees anything right now. Well, how is it? How are you going to have a recession when the federal government is deficits spending one point five trillion a year, twenty trillion dollar economy. It's difficult, it's very difficult, and unemployment is very low. I'll be at the jobs participation rate, to me is is also at a low number. Well, let's throw in a few other things too. China remains in the

doldrums. Forget dultrums. China is in a deflationary period, and Zijing paying the dictator of China. I can call him a dictator, the autocratic leader of China. Okay, don't call him a dictators. He gets voted in by somebody where, some group. I'm rolling my eyes right. Anyway, he's gonna have to He is the same problem that the Middle East had with

the Arab Spring, which is the vast majority of the people. I mean, it's less in the Arab Spring. So I think in the Middle East about forty five percent of the people alive today in the Middle East are under the age of thirty. He's got a real problem. Youth unemployment in China. It's very high. It's very high. They're gonna have to stimulate and

they're gonna have to devalue. So we'll see, we'll see, And I mean in China that's That's typically what happens when you cut off all your entrepreneurial spirit and say nope, we're not going to We don't want any more entrepreneurs, we don't want any businesses growing. Well they don't. They's the power game over there. They have there arrested Jack Ma ahead of Alley Baba. Are they that pained him for a while? Now he's on the sideline's back

if he d Yeah, he's backed the way. Olili ben Talala is back in Saudi Arabia after being okay okay, he got taken to the room with no windows and padded walls and he got read the Riot Act. But either way, well, Ali Baba's stock is up. They reported better than expected earnings and their sales are actually increasing. Look, I think China is a nice story for next year for the US where we sort of started with rising raids, which is people are concerned with either the economy the strength of the

economy coupled with where the interest rates are. And I know it's sort of crazy to think about given that we've had the quickest fed interest rate increase or the most substantial interest rate increase in a short in a period of time over the last eighteen months that we've ever had that interest rates may still not be high enough for the bond market. So who knows, but we do.

We talk about the first segment. It is the coupling of a very strong run for the market, particularly inlong duration assets which attached semiconductors and the ARC funds, and runaway interest rates in the ten and thirty year bond has pressured this equity market recently. Now there is this underlying rotation, which is energy, which was down as much as eleven percent years to debt, the XL the S and P five hundred Energy and it S is now up two percent

for the year. And banks, which were down thirty I think thirty three percent at the lows are only down sixteen percent. Those have been rounding. So value stocks are coming Oh, I say banks, banks have been rouning. I'm not sure that that's all banks. It might be just the larger banks are not the smaller. Some of the regional ones are coming back to and then need it at the M and a deal. We are not bank

investors. We watch banks. We don't like owning things that can just go to zero tomorrow on sentiment, and that is what banks are If you want to buy a bank, I'll just say that by JP Morgan. If the if that thing ever actually has a problem, you've got bigger problems because it's the global economy and starns. But we're not bank people. You want dividends by Coca Cola. We talked about it all the time. Anyway, back

to the economy, we're gonna after the CPI and PPI. It was very interesting seeing the Fed fund futures basically saying there will not be a rate increase in September, and I think the probability of a rate increase in October is less than ten percent. The next macro thing that we have is Jackson Hole. Which is it next week or the week after? I think it's the week after, it's the it's the end of the end of the month. That is the big Fed policy confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. You bring

in the European central bankers. They have a nice party. I'm sure they're raven at nice. And I say this very tongue. And she obviously last year that interest rates, that or the inflation situation had really gotten bad, and Power used the opportunity to really come out and sound hawkish. We don't think there's going to be as impactful as a speech this year, but we shall see. That is another I'm still still going on on the fact that

the that the FED is going to continue to jawbone on interest rates. I think the Fed, as much as they might say we're in a data dependent mode, is still going to be in the indicate if it's at Jackson Hole they do that, I still think they're going to be talking tough higher for longer and one or two more interest rate increases depending on the data. Either

that happens or not, I don't know. I think the bigger thing to watch is just, you know, when we watch it light to hawk this ten year and thirty year bond yield move, I'm a year about ten to twenty five bases points away from the equity market just having a throw up day, which we would probably buy because we think they'll get it under control. But I'm just noting that's more of a short term trade thing. I don't

know which way it breaks that. I do know if we keep running away, it's I mean, it's already had an impact on the SMH that that's the fund semi conductor Index and the Ark Index, which just got brutalized this week effectively on this and a lot of this is the computers. The Aldose

rates up. Wow. I think also I saw, at least with the semiconductors, Biden's executive order this this week relating to China investments again, So that's that seemed to coincide with so often and at least with semiconductors and other

other tech fair enough. Now next week we do have a big tech earnings report coming from the VideA, so more talk on their sales and or potential sales, particularly after their last report set the stock up very quickly from three hundred dollars a share to four hundred dollars a share on their forward guidance and forward sales. And that stock has really come back in and it popped out about four seventy and we're back to four oh eight. Seemingly everybody on Wall

three nuns then video now in the Magnificent seven. There's no more fang stocks. It's the Magnificent seven. And that was a good movie, by the way, it's a good movie. But earnings is all crack creeping in. We've got a great year. Now, I'm still of the camp, and I just don't see with the credit markets where they are. I just I think we're in a bull market and I think good stock can work. So still perilous out there. I think M and A is really going to pick

up after labor Day. But we got to take a break and we'll come back after the After the break, this is Josh Arnold Mister money Talk with John Arnold. Do give us a call nine to five two nine, two five, five, six oh eight. This is John Arnold Mister money Talk. John Arnold experienswered your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, how you should position your invest of dollars including your IRA in four oh one K. Don't hesitate to give us a call nine five two nine, two five,

five six or eight. That's nine two, five six eight. You always get a straight talk, not sugar coded advice. Just a reminder that everything we talked about in the show's for discussion purposes only and should not be considering investment advice. Please consult the financial advisor before making any investment decision. Some are all as the investments we discussed on the show may or may not be suitable for you or for anybody for that matter, please talk to a

financial advisor. Investing engage risk, including risk of laws. Next week next week, and I, as we said it at the top of the show, next week should be as exciting in the marketplaces as this past week. With a lot of retail earnings on deck. You have Target Walmart Home Depot, you have that new issue Kabba Group to report, you have Ross Ross stores, probably TJ Max reporting. So it's a big, big, big week for for retail. UH And then this past week you talked about mergers.

UH to pre Holdings is going to be met merging with Tapestry. So I was that acting fact, that's coach, find Jimmy chud whatever. I hate all that. These are terrible stocks. They're very hard to predict, retail stocks and move twenty percent on earnings. They got to constantly reinvent themselves. That's not all righty, Like it's the same problem with media, the

same problem with media. They always got to reinvent. Now we're gonna have to go back and talk about Disney's or earnings this past Oh god, those were inspiring. And by inspiring, I mean how all my goodness you you keep rolling your eyes. We need a television screen on you. When we start talking about we'll say media stocks, among other others, just awful.

And then just all these guys are struggling with the director consumer. It stinks as it I'll say that it's I missed the cable bundle where you pay a one hundred bucks or one hundred and twenty five bucks and you get a lot of channels. Now you got to pay twenty bucks a month for one channel. We'll see, I'm back with a cable. I like, I like my cable's right, right, I'm an old guy. They don't make DC They just like money on fire. We finally had some good movies in the

box office without butteiver and barbing. But box office is a tough business. It's just it's really hard to put a big multiple on it. So these are stocks to talk about, not really stocks to invest in. But Disney's got a lot of problems. ESPN they're doing the deal now with Pen Gaming. They got Penn to They got Pen to Pen to Pony up one hundred and fifty million dollars a year for the next ten years for Pen's right to

use ESPN for their online sports. Best turns out Pen does not have the technology right now to make it, to make it all work, and or to capitalize on this particular deal. Meantime, Pen, which had spent h five four hundred million dollars to buy bar Stool Sports, sold it back, gave it back well for a dollar, gave it, gave it back all Buck just had to sells gave it back to Portnoy. It's really interesting too, So let's just frame this. You've got draftings and then you've got fan

Duel. Fan Duel was owned by flutter Food. Those two are clearly the leaders in terms of worrow. I think they have like seventy eighty percent market share. A lot of people have tried to pierce this. When the big casino giant and shut down, just shut down. They gave up because brand value doesn't mean anything, and there's no loyalty with online betting. And then

you have Pen out here, I mean, and then billions. I think they just spend one point five billion up front of this over ten you paid out over ten years, plus give ESPN warrants to purchase five hundred million dollars worth of stock at twenty six dollars a share. It's just when are these guys, this deal looks like it's from twenty twenty or twenty twenty one. Draftings sold off initially, now it's back. I think this is going to end up the same way when Bett did. I think it's a silly deal,

but we shall see. Online gaming is it's a tough It's a much tougher business than you would think. You got to spend a lot on advertising, a lot for customer attention, highly competitive. So well, the interesting thing is, you know, draft Draftings is turn turned profitable. Caesar's Palace on their online game gambling was profitable MGM, MGM. Betts was also profitible, but those after their earnings reports, which I thought were pretty good,

all of them have sold off. Just remember the most profitable online gaming company in the world, it's called bet three sixty. It's not public, it's owned by a quantitative research person. She's brilliant. She's one of the richest women in the world. Not that there's a difference within women and men, but it's highlighting, you like the highlight success and diversity and all that fun stuff. Okay, how is their scale bigger? And why do they win?

Because they have the lowest take great meaning the bidass spread on their site. They keep the least amount on bet because they realize lower prices is a moat and you win with scale. And that is the problem with online gaming, which is the economics are great if you get massive scale, and when you're not at massive scale, the costs are the same as everybody else and you just don't make as much money. And so it's a business where long

term you would expect winners to take most. The UK has had online betting for a lot longer than the United States has, and you look to that analog and that's what we would expect, which is really good for draft kings there there there we go. Good take dat, Take dat. I do like I do like draft kings. Do do like draft kings. But it is going to be very very interesting with all the sports betting, and particularly with football season starting now so to speak, football season starting, balls,

coming schools starting. We got it all. It's gonna be a really big last third of the year. And you know, I'll go back over the macro call. The macro call is other than rates going up and oil going up a little bit more, we think M and A is going to accelerate and that should put a floor in this market or in the midst of web all at a healthy pullback, I can say that, yeah, healthy pull back at maybe five hundreds up sixteen and a half percent for the year.

The equal weighted S and P five hundreds up seven Both of those were about two to three point higher a couple of weeks ago. So well, I mean, in any any given year, as we've discussed, you know, the stock market will have three to four, five to ten percent pullbacks caused by any number of events, any number. Well, Sam Bankman freed is in jail tonight. That's the FTX bounder guys, bail revoked biggest. I really don't care. I don't care about Sam Sam Bankman Free Freedman. I

don't particularly care about cryptocurrencies. How ye, how you really feel? Okay? Okay? Well, I do know I know that you know. I know that PayPal, when they came out with their their earnings, made a big announcement, a big push for a pay Pal stable coin back by the by the dollar. And I do know that the regulators are upset because they don't have any regulation and these cryptocurrency firms are pushing for stable coins. I mean pay Pal e that. I mean that has a stock that will goodness

great no return. Going back to twenty eighteen, stock bounced off what three hundred now, yeah, about three hundred where it's sixty bucks today. They got to figure out what the acts going on that one's been. That one is on everybody's activist radar. Ooh, ooh, tough, a lot of losers out there. I mean, this has been a perilous market the last

three four years. I mean it's always a paralyous market. I mean the idea behind paid Pal and I had I had traded pay Pals, you know a number of years years ago, seemed to make some sense, and particularly be given they've got their cash application of Venmo, which seems to be pretty pretty good. Uh you have you have Square also known as Block, which

lit lit thirty five billion on fire with the afterpay acquisition. But we're still going to be digesting is this this COVID economy For a very long time, A lot of people did a lot of silly stuff, myself included. But the corporate overrang is going to go for a while and hopefully that them in any way really cleaned up a lot of this stuff. But well, you do. I'll say you've been a leader in talking about mergers and acquisition, and there have been. You know, we had a bunch last week,

which for August is nuts and we'll see what happens Monday. Monday is always merger Monday if that comes back. But we got to come back for our final set. This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd Arnold, always here to help you with your investments, whether it's inside or outside of retirement account. Do give us a call nine to five two nine two five

five six oh eight. You always get straight talk. Not sure. This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd Arnold, here to answer your questions on stocks, barns, mutual funds, how you should position your investment dollars including your IRA in four oh one K call us nine five two nine two five five six oh eight. Wait, I've got a little yeah, well whatever, Well wait, wait for the winter and you run outside. You know I'm a swimmer now I used to be a runner. Well,

I don't know. I'm not so sure which you call. What I've got is running, but I do keep moving forward fair enough. While moving is living, Moving is living. That is for sure. That is for sure. As we've talked about throughout the show, the scary i'll say scary macro thing going on. These long term bond yields are really starting to get out of control. The ten year and the thirty year yields are racing up,

even though the inflation date is pretty good. What the market is saying is the Fed actually needs to raise rates more because the economy is too strong, which is a call that we have had for a while. Well, you would you have said that higher interest rates equal is a positive for the market. Negative interest rates or falling interest rates will be a negative for Let's clarify

that statement. I said that for this moment. We started talking about this I think five months ago, which is we just thought the market had it wrong and the economy is too strong. And I say that's played out a lot now. Interestingly, we've had a lot of positive revisions, especially for the Magnificent seven Apple and Amazon, two biggest positions of our firm. Amazon. I saw something this week. Since the earnings, right, you've had

twenty six percent positive revision to next year's earnings. It is the biggest of the Magnificent seven. It's the biggest write up of twenty twenty four earnings of any of those stocks, which is why a lot of people are floating in Amazon after two very tough years in that stock. Tell me about being very

tough. And I've expressed this on this show for a while last year, especially very very disappointing and frustrating with I'll say it is a shareholder and Amazon stock on Amazon stocks seems to move up or down on people's perception of Amazon Web services, not so much on their retail business. And I thought the retail business is pretty good. Well, you don't even know it's a little

marginal. Yeah, well, I think you've got the mix shift going on at AWS kind of Aws is their server business, kind of like Apple with their services business is reaching that critical moment where you get this thing called mixed shift where all of a sudden, you've got enough of those earnings and the Wall Street pros will say, well, I can value this now excluding retail. I'm just gonna put the big multiple on this thing. We saw that

with Apple and it took the EPs multiple from twelve to thirty. And I'm not saying that Amazon's gonna have to say I mean Amazon or trade sixty times earnings. Well, Amazon has always had an extremely high multiple of earnings. Now on a price of the sales basis is actually not that expensive. It's like two a quarter times. So look if it trades to three times, it's great. I think for as a former Wall Street guy, I'll just

tell you positive revision on self side estimates equals by the stock. You have a lot of people, that's all they do. They look for positive inflection. You get one more quarter and you're probably gonna get it. Because Amazon and when I've been in one of their what I call growth phases and not spending phases. Yes, and it's a great time down the stocks. So

hopefully we see two hundred. A lot of people are batting around this two hundred dollar number I had that I had that number a few a few years ago. Well, yea, you might see it again. You might see it again. So oh on Apple finally found a level at hundred seventy seven. You know that I think Apple is oversold, and I think the same is true with Microsoft. Both boat stocks are off about twelve percent from the eye. Boats reported to me good well, an Aztec was up over forty

percent year to day this is a little bit of a consolidation. I think our macro call remains the same, which as we see, we don't see a recession anytime soon. We see an increasing m and a wave. Markets still perilous. But yeah, when is it not perilous? I will say we both strongly disagree with the bare thesis of our recession tomorrow inflation running away. We actually see economic growth and we're entering a presidential election year, which

is typically a good year for stocks. Typically typically a good year for stocks. Well, that's all we have in the market is typically Now, look, we talk about a lot of macro. Let me just take a step back. We're ultimately company investors. We look at companies, we look at earnings, we put on multiples, and we say, all right, Apple, what do we feel most strongly about? Apple does about seven bucks a

shareff free cash flow? We feel pretty strongly it's gonna be ten bucks a shareffree cash flow in a couple of years, and that should drive the stock race higher. Now it's a macro. You gotta be macro aware, and we're macro aware. Are we whipping whipping it around all the time we're trading? No, we're not, but you gotta dig into all the macro stuff because you never know how the dots are going to be connected, so to speak, and you got to be aware because of that's what drives your opportunities.

So anyway, I've said that piece, there you go, there you go. Now before we before we end, you've got to talk about a little company that you've like, bigger company now, Well, it's definitely bigger, bigger company now because since you first started mentioning it do dollar twenty. Now the stock is it a dollar sixty or two dollars and sixty cents? I'm sorry, seeing two dollars and sixty cents from from a dollar dollar twenty. We'll say this was a we'll call it a busted Bustet's back viewing in

an area that you've had some success in. They are a financial intermediary. They link lenders with the acted back security market and they take a little piece of the network business. This is called the guy at Takers PG. Why billion shares outstanding? It is not for everybody, so please be careful to stock went from ten to fifty cents and now it's back to two sixty. Now there's a billion share. So it's like it's still an it's almost a

three billion dollar company. So like, let's let's let's just think about de Breath that they had an unbelievable earnings result this week. Now it is come to Upstart, which is another high flier from COVID days kicker of that's upst UPSD had a terrible earnings result Tuesday. Stock was down. Stocks down fifty five percent in six days. So it's going from sixty dollars that over seventy

dollars to have the thirty dollars down to thirty. That's that's a well, that's a that's a huge hurt for anybody who who well, from COVID peak to COVID trough, it went from three ninety to twelve. That's up Start. We're talking from twelve to seventy now back to thirty. But guyau so up Start reported Tuesday, people thought that maybe the guy is gonna miss two. The guy actually blew numbers out when their key partners, so FI also

blew numbers out as well. The whole cell side came out Friday morning and said, look, we got the high target of six bucks. The guys to sixty from an earnings, but multiple. I think that's been traded twenty times, even about seven seven hundred million in a couple of years. You do all that math and you get to about ten bucks to share in a couple of years. That's my target. Ten bucks. There's gonna be many

ups and downs, and maybe I'll change my target. But we got a huge beat on earnings, a huge guidance raise, and I just said with Amazon street numbers going off street numbers going up. With Pagaya, you had their biggest volume day ever on Friday on Friday with over sixty million dollars of volume traded. So that's when I started. That's a lot of skin and out the trading. Or you thought I was crazy when I was buying this thing. I was treating two million bucks a day and that was only two

months ago. They all care, They all care. Now be careful though. That was not suitable. We got a lot of stuff coming up this week, and then we got then we're gonna get a little calm in them. We're about a week and a half away from calm, and I'm gonna take a little but we got a lot left. It's the back half of the year and we got a lot of dollars left in a so and and there are a lot of a lot of big money players do have to have a lot of catch up to do, Yes, they do, but it's

it is going to continue. The market's going to continue to be volatile, So do pay attention to your asset allocation mix. We keep up to thirty percent in cash to take advantage of some opportunities. Plus for safety and I happen to focus in on companies involved in the Internet leisure related businesses, something

I found in graduate school. People, no matter what the economy is doing, spend money on leisure pursuits, trying to related businesses and real assets including energy and real estate, plus doing a small amount of trading to take advantage of shorter term opportunities. This is Josh Arnold mister Money talk with Judd Arnold always here to help you. You always get street talk, not sugarcoded advice. To bear in mind that the opinions of this program are RS and RS

alone. Investments are volatile, markets are constantly trading. The investments that we've shared may not be suitable to you. Please make sure to contact an investment advisor. Pass performance is no guarantee of future risk. You have a question, call us nine to five two nine two five five six zero eight. Josh Arnold Investment Consultant is a registered investment advisor located in a state of Minnesota.

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