Mr. Money Talk

This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd Arnold here to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, how you should position your investment dollars, including your IRA in four oh one k give us a call nine five two nine two five five six o eight. That's nine five two nine two five five six o eight, particularly given the kind of volatility that has been happening recently and could well continue for the balance of the year with concerns

about the FED and earnings. Not to mention a little bit of politics thrown in, give us a call nine five two nine two five five six o eight. Always remember what jud What do you mean? What what we've got to give our our What do we have to remember? Not all all right, Oh we gotta do this thing. Okay, Yes, we've got it, We've got it. None of this is investment advice. Please consult the financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Some or all investments that we discussed

on this show may or may not be suitable for you. Investing contains risk and including risk of loss. You know you can tell that I've worked at a lot of big firms. I can definitely tell you've been trained. I sat through more compliance meetings than I care to, but you know what, it's all for you. The most important meetings aren't are figuring out how to make money. But none of this is investment advice. Of course, who the heck watches TV? Listens to radio World School. We're gonna put this

out on Ham radio too. Whoa Ham Radio Telegraph as well? And I still call AT and C American Telephone and Telegraph, didn't I didn't know that. I'm not so sure that I'd be wanting to invest in American Telephone and Telegraph. I know a lot of people do, because it still pays a pretty good dividend, not as much as it used to, but there is like zero growth at eight T and T. The satur thing isn't actually a T and T Tickers Tea because that's been a truvel company for about twenty years.

Are you going to say the saturd thing is Verizon? Yeah, I'm gonna say the satur Verizal, which had the best market. It's hard to screw up this bad when you're winning, and they found a way. They found defeat in the jaws of victory. But that's the story. Of American business. When you get two, three, four, or five generations away from the founder of a company and you get the professional managers in there. I'll never forget the guy who ruined Apple, Steve Jobs, committed the cardinal

sin in the late eighties and brought in an idiot. Oh he brought in a professional manager, Scully. Oh God, the guy was so smart. Blew up at I mean, look, good, God, well whatever, you know, talent, talents a rare thing. Business is hard. The half life of American business is ten years. Never forget that. Wow, I would I would say, you know, well, you know, Jim John Scully might have created a mess at Apple, first kicking Steve Jobs out and then then bringing him back. We need you back. Well, that

was the smart thing he did. He brought brought Steve Jobs back. Steve Jobs, we'll say, turned around the company that he started. Now, to be fair to Scully and the board of Apple, I will point out, I don't think Steve Jobs without doing his ten years in the desert or thirty years in the desert. So well, I'm not I'm not afraid. A lot of I thought that you were a biblical scholar too. Well, I was thinking he was away for ten years. I'm sorry, I'm not

talking about Moses. Moses and the Jews wandering around for forty years in the desk. Well, you know the old jew joke about that Jew was wandering the desert forty years. It takes that long to find a place in the Middle East without oil. Oh, I thought it was forty years looking for a good delicatessen. No, no, I mean there's a good ax White joke in there too, But we're just going to leave that right there. You should go see Oppenheimer. That is a story about the victory of the

Jewish people. Brilliant, brilliant, unbelievable. Now did you see did you see that movie in imax? I thought in seventy millimeter, Wow, I'm act devenue. You know, it just looks good. Whatever, it's a great movie. It's one of the better movies. I think. I see Chris nol Wan at the top of his game. But we digrets. We have to talk about the real show this week is Jackson Hole the entire world. I was asked on another podcast that I do why Jackson Hole? Why

not you got the world central bankers? These people control more money than anybody can fathom. Okay, you got to go somewhere in the in August that isn't sold out, that you can have a bunch of academics, right, And part of the reason I brought up in my wayward way wandering in the desert. Now, Oppenheimer, oh, Oppenheimer. Okay, they needed a secluded place where these people could work and interact, that the rich people weren't

vacationing and partying. So so they go to New Mexico. It's a beautiful place. It is a beautiful place. Jason Hall Jackson Hole is really hard and it's beautiful, but it's really hard to get to. You gotta fly in I think the Salt Lake first and then you connect. It's a pretty long journey, but beautiful place too. It's well, I'll take my kid there one day. That's it sounds. It sounds like trying to go to Penn State University in Happy Valley. Pennsylvania a little bit freer than Penn State

in Happy Valley. You know, Pennsylvania is the state. It's really two states divided by a wilderness in the middle, and in that wilderness is Penn State. But we digress. Let's go back to Jackson Hole. It is a tale of two cities. Much different year this year than last year. Okay, and in what sense which Last year Powell came out and the rest of the Fed before the Governor's leaking into the press, he came out on a mission to destroy the market. And over the next two months post Jackson

Hole last year, the market was still out twenty percent. Do you think that he had a mission to destroy the stock market and also the bond market, or maybe it was a mission to wake people up last year to in the bond market more so than the stock market. You're splitting hairs. Okay, I guess I did put here. Well, the FED has got no control whatsoever the stock market. Correct, But if I shop off both your arms, should I be surprised? If you you know, I'd have trouble

eating. Yeah, all markets are ultimately correlated. So this year much different. There. They sound like they're first of all, i'd say the number one thing, they are done. And if they're not done, there's maybe a twenty five basis point rate hips last. But they are for all attention

purposes. They are done raising interest rates. I think Harker, who's one of the figure hawks on the Fed who spoke Thursday, pile it spoke Friday really made a point of saying, community bank managers are telling the Fed, hey, let this let the market digest all these rate hikes. This hurts. And we've already had the Look and Valley Bank go under. We already had signature banking New York and a few smaller ones. But man, the

banking industry is not loving these ratings. And particularly in treasuries we've talked about long treasury bonds have gotten obliterated this year, but also mortgage backed securities have gotten absolutely incinerated. And those are most of their holdings. So well, they're not only most most of the will say the small banks holdings, but the Federal Reserve is sitting on an awful lot of mortgage. But they can

print money. You're really when you make this point about the losses at central banks, you're really more concerned with like the Swiss National Bank, okay, which you know they can't print dollars. So when the Swiss National Bank, which owns a bunch of thirty year treasuries and market back secuies, when they take mark to mark, they're holding the maturity which they can do right, and they're going to but yeah, that mark to market loss is pretty darn

big. So if if in fact all these banks are telling the Fed that there's a problem with continuing raising interestries, I know that the Fed brought that up that in at least in his task. I want to get how talked about the tighter banking standards, you know, are are slowing the economy. Yeah, I want to get some of this discussion to be forward looking as opposed to backward looking. So of course the message is we're done raising rates

and we're gonna hold them here for a while. And you saw one year, two year, three year, five year, seven year, ten year treasury well more one to seven year treaser. I didn't see the longer term after really that's what they call the belly of the belly of the curve was higher. Yeah, I didn't. I didn't really see much much, not get talked about seven years. So higher for longer is the message, but

they're not going to do more. I think you also tellingly saw the vics collapse a little bit on Friday, and as the market is now pricing in whether you like it or not, they told you as explicitly as they could between Harker on Thursday, Powell on Friday, and then you also had Meester from Cleveland, Cleveland and the other FED governors speak after Powell on Friday.

They told you as clear as day they are not raising rates pretty much for well, if you've you've got the Louis Meester from Cleveland, big hawk in terms of interest rates. Yeah, so you have the two of the biggest hawks saying we're done. We're done, but we're gonna have to be done for this segment right now. We're gonna have to come back after the break. We'll talk more about the FED and how that fit is going to impact you when we come back. This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with

Judd Arnold, always here to help you do. Give us a call nine five two nine two five five six oh eight. This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd Arnold here to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, how you should position your investment dollars including your IRA in four oh one K, don't hesitate to give us a call nine five two at nine two five five six oh eight. That's nine five two nine two, five, five, six oh eight. You always get straight talk,

not sugarcoated advice. Following on or continuing talking about the FED and the Jackson Hole meeting, it was a very interesting judge that you brought up that the volatility index the VIX, came down and came down significantly on both Pal's talk and then Luis Meister's talk. After Pal relating to lead guys, as clear a FED guidance as we have gotten in two and a half years, they

couldn't have said it any planner. They are done raising rings now we can go back and than the talking heads world now they're going to keep rates higher for too long. Before they were going to raise rates too long, but you got, hey, we're basically done and we're gonna leave rates here. We want duration to be you know that we think number one, they all

said rate we're restricted right now. Well they haven't said anything different or in terms of being being restricted, nor have any of the FED governors that have come out to speak, uh said, said anything different than higher for longer, and that that has been a mantra now for from I think from an equity market standpoint, there's another thing that really dawned on me sort of writing this up for clients today was the yieldcurred for the first time in several years.

Is out of place where it and be bullish. And this is what I mean. We now have seen the back end of the curve, which is ten through thirties, right, those, the yields on those have been rising, rising a bunch. And that means that prices on longer term bonds have come down. Yes, rates off bond prices down. Okay. The front end of the curve, which is one to two years, at zero to two years has been elevated at about five and a half percent for a

while. Okay, now those rates have been coming down. That the shorter end of the curve, those about those same at five and a half. What you saw post the comments this week was the belly, the soake about belly of the curve. The one to seven year rates really moved higher. And so you've got this. You don't have a curve. You've got three

lines. You've got a line from zero to one year at five and a half percent, You've got a line from one to seven years at out let's call it blended four, seven, five, and then you got the back end of the curve ten years on out is about four point four it's not even a curve, it's just three line. We got three levels. But my point on rallying from here, what's gonna happen if you play the tape

forward several years is eventually they're gonna lower front end rates. And if the economy that's one of the things the FIT has control of, is the front end rates. Correct, They're gonna lower front end rates if the economy stays strong, which we have no signs of weakness today. And that's the other thing. All the BED governors said, it's just unbelievable, this economy just keeps flying along. Well, that's that definitely, at least Palace comments that

has that has so high frustrated them. Right, a strong economy is highly correlated to higher long term rate. So ten to thirty years okay, So what's gonna happen is the next move. We've just had what's called the bear deepener, which is the back end of the curve the tens of the thirties have risen to be more flat to the front end. That's called the bear steepener. We're going to have a bull steepeners. The next move. Now, I'm not saying this is overnight, and this is sort of I think

why the market sort of released midday Friday, which is Okay. The next move in rates, whether it's six months or now, a year from now, two years from now, is most likely a lowering of the front end, which puts the curve upward sloping, which allows financial firms to make money again by borrowing short and lending long, which is the natural state of things

in the way the curve's supposed to be outside of a recession. So you know, equity markets are forward looking six to nine months, right, So I this is a long winded way of saying, we showed up here with not inflation defeated, but inflation coming in enough that the Fed has met it and said, you know, I think we're about where we need to be. Okay, right, so look now this can still you know, we can still have a bet inflation print. We've bet two in a row.

But I think the big thing is markets like certainty, and you kind of got a lot of certainty. So there you go. That's macro. So it means everything I just said's probably wrong. Okay, Well, let me just throw throw this this in You know, if the FED does seems not to take into account some of the deflationary forces that are happening in China, Okay, how might that impact any of the fence fence thinking and or interest rates? So I think on this point, i'll make the big point that

I'll make the little one that you're getting at. Okay, So you have all these talking heads talking about, well, the Fed. You know, a few Opolos comments are wrong about source of inflation. He was talking about auto loans this morning, and a few of the commentators after a few that I really like, like Coldman Saxon, chief economist, will think and the point it's like follows kind of got that one wrong. The source of end is some other whatever, It doesn't really matter. But I would say back

something much stronger that I think is more important. The FED screwed up. It screwed up bad in twenty twenty one. They thought it was transitory and they didn't raise rates quick enough and inflation got out of control. Okay, Okay, if they are holding rates here today, they are not going to screw up today. So we're like, all these prognosticators, all the talking again, well do we think they're going to lower quick enough. When do

we need to lower? Well, you don't need to lower today where they are today is kind of right. So the mistake of staying too high too long, so long as the economy remains robust and again it like it's not falling apart for the next three months. And if you can see on three months while then you're already a multi trillionaire, you're not listening to this show. So I think the penalty this is the recency bias of probability of mistake

times impact of mistake. Right, probability and mistake is likely constant. Okay, all right? Meaning today, you know, like the FEDS problem, what is a good Fed governor batting average supposed to be? I don't know. It's like it's economics. They're gonna be wrong more than they're right. They're probably gonna at four hundred. That's pretty good. You're betting you're batting four hundred. That's that's tremendous. That's pretty good for an economist, Okay,

for anybody. I mean that put that puts you in the Hall of fame. When was the last time a baseball player batted four hundred? I don't know. With there without steroids. All right, let's let's go. But let's talk about impact of mistake. We're in it. We just went through. When inflation is running away, impact of mistake eight is maximized for the central banker. Right, we're back to normal. Okay, Are they going to mess it up? Of course they are, like that's that's a

given. But the impact of the mistake it's just far less. And this is the classic recency bias of market. Everybody fights the last war. If you're a World War two historian, you look up the Magino Line, which is the super fortified French trench against the German border. That was like a response to World War One that the Germans simply went around. Okay, So anyway, this is a bit of a digression. I think we have certainty.

If they're wrong, it's not gonna matter for a little while and longer term, you know, I'm saying six months out, if they're wrong, whatever, it's easy to correct. Fine, I think we're the Fed continues to go into the background. Well, that that would be. Now watch the market fall apart because it's September seasonally, well in the seasonal seasonal bet

you know, you the next the next earnings or major earnings calls. We'll start the middle of September looking backwards into the summer months, and typically the summer months are a lot slower economically than the next quarter of the quarter that ends the year, which is typically a lot stronger. Uh you know.

So the and for the for the next few weeks earning, the number of companies reporting earnings is is a lot smaller, and there'll be more focused, we'll say, on macro issues, so we'll probably have more fed speak than anything else. Plus, you've got a short week next next week, coming into Labor Day weekend, coming out of Labor Day weekend, it's a short week. Following week is the start of Jewish Poletish New Year, the old

saying sell Russia, shun up by by yump poor. That'll that'll take us into the end of September and then we start getting into a stronger This is just a long winded way of saying, you need to make break plans. That's all I'm airing. Make winter break and Thanksgiving plans. We'll be right back. This is Josh Arnold, mister Money Talk with Judd Arnold. We're always here to help you and we do have an opinion. Call us nine

five two nine two five five six oh eight. This is Josh Arnold, mister money talk with Judd Arnold here to answer your questions on stop bonds, mutual funds, how you should position your investment dollars putting your IRA in four oh one K. Don't hesitate to give us a call at nine five two nine two five five six oh eight. That's nine five two nine two five five six zero eight. You'll always get straight talk, not sugarcoated advice.

Okay, my long winded message of take time now to plan for your for Thanksgiving and when winter break. That is one thing that has affected a lot of we'll say consumer spending. That spending is not necessarily going on in stores.

It's been going on experiences and on travel, both will say local and or domestic and international, which has benefited companies like Expedia, Bookings dot Com and several of the hotels and my favorite favorite casinos in terms of their of their earnings as opposed to the retailers which have reported very very mixed uh you know this this week and last week, I mean we had Walmart beat uh and Guided upwards Target did not beat and guided a lot lower. This cold

stores surprised everybody and they did well. But the dollar stores really we'll say, took it in the in the shorts, which was very very interesting. Though another value value value retailer, TJ Max did did very very well. We had some surprises from Abercrombie, Fitch and and guests in terms of of retail alta you know, beat and they they raised. But Nordstrom's they might have beat in terms of their earnings, but they guided guided lower, so

that was not not too well. And an old favorite of mine, Dick's Sporting Goods, where they shrink is crushing all these guys plots you add on the channel and online and whatnot. Shrink is just people stealing, being your own employees or your non employees once it gets to the store. It is a real problem, especially on i'll say the most part the largest economic state,

which California, it's pretty bad. Well, there were an awful lot of stores that have closed down in certain cities, whether it's La or San Francisco. Scores from Yeah, it's eeds, Walgreens and north Stroms have closed down in the city. It's just stunning. You know, none of this could have been predicted. And by none of this, I mean, of

course this could have been predicted. But here we are retails tough. A lot of the only thing that that makes retail stocks look good to me as media stocks, because media stocks look so horrific now cord cutting is going on at seven percent annualized. Wow, I didn't realize it was that hot. I was joking with somebody that cable is the new newspapers. Well, that does not bode well for Worldlet's say Comcast, It doesn't bode well at all.

For Comcasts. It doesn't, and Comcast is one of the better ones. But Paramount, which is a merger of Eye Common CBS. Let me ask you, what would if you were a private equity guy, what would you pay for Nickelodeon today? Almost nothing right right because it's all YouTube. My kid doesn't know what new Nickelodeon is, right? Why would I be stuck in a linear world? She needs the ipatch, you know, we're on the road. She likes cocoa melon. It's there's a lot of things

that have been completely disrupted. I gotten a little debate with somebody about stars stars being I don't know if we want to say HBO Showtime start Staring Stars, I think is part of part of line skate line. But my point was just simply HBO is struggling for relevance and it's sort of morphing in this way into essentially a mini Netflix. The online experience with HBO. It's really it's the same business model effectively, this right original content and then we buy

some other stuff and that's why you're gonna pay. I don't know. I don't know, man, this is this is why HBO makes money. I don't even know what I pay a month. I just know I haven't probably not getting full value, but something like Stars or Cinema. I don't know if Cinemax is still around. Well, some of some of these things have changed their names. I think Cinemax might still be around. I had somebody changed changed their title to max Max dot com on my on my Comcast.

I've got but I'm just gonna posit for you as we keeper on the way down. You think about there's always a series of fools, and I will not use that term, not like I'm using that term not purposefully right that look at what the company used to do and think that that has any impact on what it's going to do. So take the Starts Review. It caught bought out by private equity on the way down for look at oh man,

you didn't there we go. It caught bought out on the way down I think for four hundred and fifty million dollars, and they bared a bunch of money and they went bankrupt, and then it got sold again and again and again. I don't know what The Stars Reviewed is worth now. I doubt it is not worth four hundred and fifty million dollars. I think that, you know, one point, they wanted to be a not for profit company, and I think I made the joke to you, well, it's gonna

be a not for profit company soon enough. These people just don't realize it because you think about the economics of a newspaper, which is really adds and the classified page correct, and what is the what would you pay? What is the have you like? When is the last time anybody looked at classified? I certainly have not looked at for very long. So the newspapers today that are still around and making money, New York Times a sort of a

media enterprise and whatnot. So that's where TV's going. We're cutting. We're talking linear TV, linear TV, A cable companies. Okay, so and stuff like Nickelodeon, you know, I throw out there, or like USA Network. What's the value of USA Network today? Have no idea. I don't know why I need all these channels? What show is USA getting that?

Netflix? Amazon pro? Like? You think about all the people now that have to pass well, I think USA Network, I think had a lot of soccer and might have had some sports that I I don't particularly watch. But but right it's a zero Now we don't like, we don't need it, and that's what's going to keep happenings. So this is a long digression of we get it. You know, I always get a little ruffled

up. I get questions on media, you know, Warner Brothers, Stickers, WBD, Like, people see these stocks are down a lot and they think they know a lot about them. Disney is at a new he's at a new low. I think you've bought. If you've bought in two thousand and four, I think you lost money or you need the dividend. Well, you got the dividend, but I mean that that's going way down and the stock is treating it less than a half of where it was, but

it's still not even four. You're still expensive. I think it's still sixteen seventeen times earnings and earnings. Guess what they're gonna keep going down now? Now Disney is trying to either spin off or sell some of their divisions. Let me just make my crowning point. I'm media, okay, because you're gonna get to ESPN, which is which used to be the crown jewel with Disney. I'm going to get the ESPN. I would humbly say to you a boomer Hey, boom, okay, boomer, right, you know what

Sports Illustrated is? Okay, you know what Sports Illustrated is? Right? It would be impossible for me to explain to my child what Sports Illustrated is and why people used to read it religiously correct. It's ancient history. If if that magazine still exists, it is ancient history. When you get it, it's worthless. Well, I still I still get it. It doesn't come out as often in print, is it? What the value of that

is? What five percent of what it was twenty years ago? I'm sure the time time In sold it to another another company that sold it again. Es no that's online. Guess what that's what's going to happen to ESPN. Now. ESPN still has some content, still has some sports that are shown up, and talk is that Amazon is going to cut a deal with Disney on ESPN. Fine, but we can talk about that and more when we come back, because we want to talk about something that's near and dear to

you, mergers and acquisitions. This is Josh Arnold, nister money Talk. Do give us a call nine to five two nine two five five six oho eight. This is Josh Arnold. Miss your money talk with Judd Arnold. You're to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, how you should position your investment dollars, including your IRA and four oh one t. Don't hesitate to give us a call at nine five two nine two five five six oh eight. That's nine five two nine two five five six oh eight.

You'll always get straight talk, Nut, Sue Coded Advice and Judd. The disclaimer not all none of this is investment advice. All of this is for discussion purposes only. Please consult an investment advisor before making any just investment decisions. Some are all of the investments that we discussed on the show may or may not be suitable for you investing in as risk including risk of loss.

There you go, There you go. We finished the last last segment talking about the possibility of Amazon rumored to be cutting a deal with ESPN, either for some of their content, all their content, or maybe even so let's just go back. We're talking about media. Okada is terrible, and I'm just we get all these disneys at a new twenty year low. Okay, I get all these questions from people, what about Warner Brothers? What about Disney? What about Comcast? Let me just tell you right now,

it's only going to get worse. This stuff is newspapers in two thousand and seven, right where you have a lot of people looking at the history and believing that that has something to do with the future. Guess what, the over the top and director consumer offerings blew up the cable bundle. This industry is a disaster. They're gonna keep losing money and you're up against non economic guys like Amazon and Netflix. Well have and also Google your name? How

about Meta? How about Apple? You know I saw Oppenheimer this week. One of the previews was from Apple Films. Wow, very interesting. Guess what, you know it a lot of people can do this stuff because content is the value and a lot of these guys, these media companies or cakekeepers, no difference than the rate you know, the record companies back in the fifties where they can control who's top fifty because they own the distribution in a

world where anything, any amount of content, it can get anywhere. Look at YouTube and mister Beast for example, and you don't know mister Beach. I have no idea John who mister b is. But then I'm a boomer and it's got like fifty million people a week watch the show Wow, Yes, crazy and Cocoa Melon, which you know, it's kids cartoons that come from New One is it's on. I think it's like every episode gets like one hundred million views. It's crazy. So so what what you're telling me

is I should be buying Google with YouTube? Then YouTube is one of those YouTube is very valuable. I'm not telling you to buy Google, though, But we digress. Let's we got to do a quick up. We got to do a quick recap for people who are late on the FED. We talked a lot about at the start of the show, if you really want a deep analysis, you can give us a call, but I'll give you the cliff notes. They're done. That's that's that's a that's a pretty good

cliff Not they're done. They're going to keep rate. Just two words, they're done. Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's longtime partner, notes that the highest form of intelligence, it's a simple the ability to simplify things. There you go, they're done. You've got a lot of intelligence is done. You heard it here from from Judge. The fet is done. Now. The stock market has rallied a lot this year into that, so some of that's priced in, but the feed is done. Well, that's I think.

I think it's just a matter of companies now adjusting for higher for longer. We still have a very strong economy, and the Fed, I think all of them are stunned that we didn't have to lay off that many people to get to where we are. But it's not that the information has been defeated, but they think we're sufficiently restrictive. They're going to leave rates here for a long time period of time. So for stocks, it's great. We

have certainty or more certain issues than you never have perfect certainty. And we're back to where we were at the start of the year when we you and I were saying Macro's hard, but good stocks can work, and a lot of good stuffs have work, which but the companies that really have not worked maybe could work in another form. And I know you've been talking about mergers

and acquisitions happening. So the mergers and acquisitions story is super simple. SMP five hundred, which is a market cap weighted index, is up fifteen percent year today. Now at peak it was up nineteen point six percent. We have had a little bit of a pullback and this is the seasonal time of the year when that usually happens. Then that goes through September, so just

be aware of that. The equal weighted SMP five hundred, so all five hundred stocks are weighted equally in the index, which is not the way the index is mark cap weighted. The equal weights only up four point two percent. There's a significant difference. So if we're gonna have the M and A thesis is really simple. The IPO market has come back. Instacrch just filed after the clothes on Friday. We're gonna have a lot IPOs, big IPOs. This fall. The high bond market is financing stuff. It was closed

for a lot of twenty twenty two. The M and A market really has been closed for about two years. We're going to see a big acceleration because if the market's not going to bid up these other non big Tex stocks, then M and A is just going to accelerate because growth is somewhat slower. So we're gonna have a lot of M and A. Well, we've we've seen that. We've seen that in one old industrial area Cleveland Cliffs made a made a bid for us US Steel. You can see it in We'll see

in old some of the older technology. Rumor is that BlackBerry is or is or could be taken over in the next week week or so. A lot of technology, a lot of patents there. But I think you're going to see a lot of industrial consumer type. Well here's Sheen a retailer more on online retailer talking about buying forever twenty one. So there's that. And then host this brands which takers Swinky because they owned Twinkies. We liked we Love Twinkies, which was a spack by the way, as a pre COVID spack.

It's pretty good spack actually because trading at twenty seven buck. I actually, actually I like tasty Cake better than Twinkies. But there you go, Okay, Boomer, I'm just from here. I grew up. There was no tasty cake here in Minnesota. But I think they're The larger point is the stock market can handle rates that interest rates where they are. That we've had normally low period of interest rates since the global financial crisis, but before

we had an entire tech bubble. Happened around two thousand with interest rates at six and a half percent. That's what it's going to say. In the in the mid nineteen nineties, markets did extremely well with interest rates still even higher higher than that. And I do remember one of my investment heroes, John Temple, in nineteen ninety said that the Dow was going to double by two thousand. Well he was wrong. It tripled. It went up a

lot more than that. But my point is that when he made that prediction, he was laughed at off the Now going from five thousand to ten thousand and ten years, it's impossible. Just look what's happened before. And we were coming out of the stock market crash of nineteen eighty seven, at the time, interest rates we're climbing, taxes we're going up, and John Templeton's said the Dow was going to double from five thousand to ten thousand, and

when you get laughed out of the room. But nobody bothered to think that that was only a needed return of seven percent a year, which was below the average return in the stock market longer term. What do he's always win? And speaking of when it's gonna be a big holiday weekend week, I should say big holiday week coming up. The markets are pretty quiet, We've got back to school. September is usually a down month, but we got

a lot left in this year. We think a lot of the downside outcrons have been removed and certainly nothing is near term, but markets are volatile. Be careful out there. We've had a great year, We've got a great five year. Great Is this your forty for you? This is probably a little bit more than forty, but it's been Yeah, it's a little more than forty. As a as an independent, how old are you? I'm forty one, Well, you're forty one entering in you'll soon be forty two.

So I started as an independent broker and advisor in nineteen eighty one, shortly before you were born. Well as I was also the last time I ran a marra. There you go. That's the track record. Forty one years still here and you guys did another forty years to go, another forty to go. You guys have a great weekend. You two enjoy the State Fair. This is Josh Arnold, mister Money Talk with Judd Arnold call us nine five two nine two five five six o eight. Josh Arnold Investment Consultant

is a registered investment advisor located in a state of Minnesota. All securities discussed are for informational purposes only. Investing contains risks, including risk of loss. Consult your investment professional before making any decisions about your investment portfolio.