Mr. Money Talk

Damn noon. This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd Arnold. You're to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds. You should position your investment dollars including your IRA in four oh one k. You do have to give us a call nine five two nine two five five six eight. That's nine five two nine two five five six eight. You always get

straight talk, not sugarcoated advice. John. I heard something today and as we're recording this program, which is on Friday, I heard something that this morning today that I'll say was semi amazing to me. I'll say semi amazing

to me. Given that the S and P five is up twenty five percent from the low point last October year to day, fifteen percent year year to date, that most most individuals and even most institutional investors do not realize that the market has been moving up. Most individuals don't realize the market has been going up because they have been positioned in a traditional sixty forty portfolio sixty percent in stocks, forty percent in bonds, and the bond portion of that portfolio

is still under underwater. They say, yeah, and their total portfolio gain U is minimal at best. Actually, if I did a quick math, it is even under setting the money in in short term treasure. Two pieces of that we've talked at length, and we'll continue to talk. Bonds are a terrible place to be, terrible awful rates go up on prices go down, and offsetting that, you're not getting a lot of total return at these interest rates. Even though are rates are up now, you're really not getting

a ton of total return. And certainly with where they were, you weren't getting any total return. So tough tough spot in bonds. On equities, the rally is starting to widen out, but most people are overallocated to quote unquote quality quote unquote value stocks, which means they don't own tech. And if you don't own in Vidia, Meta, Amazon, or Apple or Microsoft, you're really not up a lot, like you're missing a ton of return. Now. The gap, we've talked about this at length, the gap

between the SMP five hundred, which is a market cap weighted index. Market cap weight it just means the biggest companies in the index at waiting, So the top ten socks in the SMP five hundred, or roughly thirty percent of

the index. The other seventy percent relates to the other four ninety the SMP five hundreds of about fourteen point nine percent year and a date, the equal weighted SMP five hundred, So if you wake them all the same is up just under five percent or just over five percent five point one percent, so you still have a pretty The maximum gap I believe is eleven percent between the two eleven percent points. It's not an eleven right, it's a pretty big

gap starting to narrow. But interestingly, we rally this week with the Fed where Jee Howell said we're not raising interest rates, but don't come out of don't celebrate yet. I might raise them again, and nobody believed him well that they might. He said he might celebrate it. Don't celebrate the end

of raising interest rates because we're still going to be higher for longer. And they indicated that they were going to raise at least twice more this year, and there's no intent to bring down interest rates until at least twenty twenty five

based on their their dog We'll see. But the point I was making people are expecting a convergence between the RSPD, which is the equal way, and the SMP five hundred and what may play out, which is what seems to have been playing out, which is that the SMP five hundred, the top stocks don't come back. Well, there are not a lot of people who do believe that we're going to have a i'll say more than a significant pullback

coming. They don't give a reason why other than these top stocks are overvalued and they're trending at the top top of their range over a period of time. But they don't say anything other than than that to say that they're going to come down. Now. Of course, there there's we'll say eight.

I had a divergence between one of the more bullish strategists, Tom Lee, who's looking at the S and P being up at forty seven fifty over the course of the year, and a major bear Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley, who sees the S and P by the end of the year or sometime in the next few months being down at thirty one hundred. That's a pretty significant Well, let's talk about what both of them are saying, and let's before we jump into this, but let's do a few caveats to set the table.

Number one, the average year has three to four, five to ten percent pullbacks in the year. We've had one this year year to day, We're going to have more. Every year has ups and downs. Welcome to the stock market. Correct. Okay, The operative question is do we retest the October Well, and I don't. I have never believed before you interject let me, okay, keep going. Seems like a solid low, but I'll leave that for a moment. Okay. What Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley

is saying is SMP five hundred earning estimates have come down. They are at or just below two hundred a share, and at the trough we typically trade fifteen sixteen times. He's saying, fifteen sixteen times two hundred. That's your

threey thirty one hundred. Okay, Okay. What Tom Lee and the bulls are saying is everyone knows this year is going to be bad, and as we get to the end of the year stock Street six nine, twelve months out, we're gonna start rolling into twenty twenty four and twenty twenty four earnings are going to be higher, and we're going to be in a secular rowe

stage again. And therefore the first year of growth you typically pay a higher multiple because you're not looking one year out, you're looking multiple years out because the bottom is in. And therefore I'm willing to sort of say we're going to get back to two fifty two seventy five three hundred of earnings and let me in a couple of years and let me put a multiple on. That's

the that's the debate, and I think we are in the camp. And you may interject and if I have this wrong that and we we've said for the last several it's going on more than a month now, we have said there's nothing left to throw with this market. And what we mean is the

Mike Wilson Bear thesis has been there, correct and it's known. And the struggle we have is the Bare thesis had a lot of Creedis when SMP five hundred earning estimates were two thirty two forty, now they're down to two hundred, and he's saying, see they're at two hundred and we should put a low multiple. Well, what's the catalyst. The catalyst to move a multiple

is usually related to a rerating of estimates of earnings. And they've already been they've already known this is it. And I think that's the struggle we have, and then we add in we had a banking crisis, mini banking crisis. We have all these known negatives, and you just wonder what the kindling is going to be required to get to the October low. And it just seems not that we can't have a pullback. We're gonna have a of course,

we're gonna have a pullback. We're gonna have several more, but to really get back to the thirty four hundred or thirty five hundred low that we experience, it's just kind of being really difficult. Time marches on. So anyway, that's where we are. We think, well, you've got just a few more. You just have a few more weeks in the month month of June, so that would completely you know, the first half of the

year. I think that they're awful lot of um we'll say, larger investors at least once they want to show that they own some of the leading stocks. So we might have we This is the rsp sp spy issue that we've talked about, which is guys are active managers are lagging because they probably don't own nearly as heavily the top stacks that have performed well especially Apple at seven

eight percent of the index, Microsoft too. Most mutual fund guys cap out at five and even even if that, most might be even limited to two percent or two and a half. Right, So they're gonna have to chase and pray. And that's the dynamic as old as time, which is, we just had a big hot IPO this week Cava the Mediterranean Hummus restaurants of ninety percent the day of the offering, and they had raised the range multiple

times. Big IPO. When you have big IPO at I mean the IPO market was just closed for almost two years, you have a big IPO of nine. That is a early endings rally data point, not a late endings rally data point in my experience. But well, what we'll come back and talk a little bit more about Kava and the market and whether people should be staying on the sidelines or starting to leg in if they haven't already started to leg into this market. This is Josh Arnold, mister money talk with Judd

Arnold always here to help you. Give us a call nine to five two nine two five five six oh eight. You'll always get straight talk, not sugarcoated advice. This is Josh Arnold, mister money, talk with Judd Arnold here to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds. You should position your investment dollars including your ir ray in four oh one k. Don't hesitate to give us a call nine to five two and nine two five five six oh eight. That's nine five two nine two five five six oh eight.

You always get straight talk, not sugar coded advice. You brought up the we'll call it a hot IPO of a restaurant chain that isn't operated in Minneapolis Saint Paul Area. Cava that the ipo was priced to twenty two dollars a share for those who were able to get the sharers thirty times well, thirty times over subscribe. Stock opens up ninety percent, traded up one hundred percent at one point I think the high print was forty five bucks and closed

on Friday thirty eight dollars a share. Yeah, they can't show you yet for the first couple of days. Now the bull pitch is if it trades inline with Chapulte's revenue multiple, you can get the mid fifties. Now you take a step back, Chapulte being one of the most highly valued on evaluation metric basis restaurants out there, okay, and I'm not going to say similar food because kava is healthy. And by the way, the fact that kava is healthy is actually a bare argument, which is who wants to go to

get there is healthy takeout food. Yeah, that you've already fully penetrated the healthy market. There's way more obese and not healthy people than there are healthy people. But that's neither here nor there, and I hope everybody's healthy, but nonetheless there's just a lot of back and forth. Most IPOs to ninety nine percent of the return in the first month occurs in the first day, especially with hot IPOs, so don't be rushing. I mean these things.

Typically you get a chance somewhere between four and five months in when the first lockup of shares comes happens. And by lock up, so when when companies go public, it's a small float in terms of the total outstanding shares. Naturally, when you have a stock up ninety percent, a few of the insiders get a tap on the shoulder from the spouse or from their inner soul and say it's not the worst thing in the world just to sell a bunch, right, here, so you should expect to see some shares come out.

Typically the best time you can buy these spot or five months after. Anyway, the point we're making with the IPO the IPO market has been closed for almost eighteen months, and we've seen a few offerings already over the last month, which we've noted KVUE at MU. These companies are so new that I only remember the ticker. I can tell you what they do. But beside the point, a reopening of the ipo market is typically the beginning and

not the end of a bull markets. And that's the point I would give you because common now being successful means for sure the new issue window is open, there's going to be a lot more offerings. Always brings out the animal spirits and just the people seeing stocks up fifty seventy percent in a day. We're at the beginning, We're not at the end. We're not to the

excess yet. Well, I do know that the availability of the IPOs is pretty pretty small, and just one thing if you're a small investor and somebody says, oh, you can participate in this IPO, and that must be a bad IPO if they're coming to an individual investor, stay, stay away anything you're being offered. Believe me, the good offerings. When I worked in hedge funds, we would scratch, claw bag, plead to get shares, and on the good ones you never got any shoe. It didn't matter

who you were. You were lucky to get one hundred thousand shares if you were twenty billion dollars hedge fund and management like you. They know it's hot, they know it's so stay away. Anyway. The meta points, not meta, the stock meta, the euphemistic whatever is. We're seeing both data points continue and not bear ones. So last week and maybe the week before, I was a bit exacerbated. Exacerbated. Well, yes, there's certain parts of the market that we're not doing well. The market well, just

that we're out of the bear. We need a new bear thesis and that's why we're rallying. We don't have one, and all the bears sound repetitive and their their thesis hasn't played out. And so we were in a jump all situation about a month and a half two months ago where it looked like it could have gone either way, and the bulks have won, and now the bears had to play catch up because now that's the game of performance, you know, performance chasing well, and the bears will probably continue to chase

for a while. We need to get into I think the next moment. But barring an exogenous shot of some kind, which is always present, barring an exaction a shock, I think the next moment for the market to really get weaker is starting into Q three earnings that start middle of July. So yeah, that would be the time, right after fourth of July to have a little bit of a pullback in the market. And I have seen even

a number of will say strategists coming out with negative, negative reports. I've gotten a few clients send me things that they have seen on the internet, you know, talking about a major correction coming. You kind of break all this stuff down because it's really what are earnings and what multiplay are you going to pay? And it's really as simple as in Q one. By the reason we're rattling Q one SMP five hundred earnings estimates went up, not down.

We priced in more of a recession than one that we're seeing right now. So if we're really offsite flats up earnings as it's in Q two, and I think we're gonna be fine. Coupled with that, I can't believe we've talked so little about it. The FED is now kind of in the tailent, and well, I would say, I would say, you know, when when the FED comes out, Jpal comes out and says, well, we could have you know, two more two more hikes. I mean he got laughed out of the room. Wow, We've we've gone you know,

fifteen fifteen hikes. We've had hikes over the last almost fifteen months, very very steep pikes in a very very very brief period of time too, with the intent to bring down inflation. And the FED is still talking. We still have a lot of inflation, but it's primarily in wages and in housing. It's gonna be sticky. The bookcase is that rates are five percent two years from now, because that that means by definition that the economy and

can take you. Inflation is going to be long running. And I think the two most recent pair arguments were one and loan payments are restarting, and that's going to be that's gonna take money away from consumers. Yeah, in terms of spending, but that's not going to be until the last quarter of

the year. I just don't think that matters that much. The other one is that we had a trillion dollars of government funding needed posts the expiration that are getting through the debt ceiling, those types of things where the treasure comes out issues a bunch of bonds, so subliquidity. They never in my career seem to have mattered. And indeed, what we've already seen in the data is the Fed's reverse repo facility, which is a complicated term for money people

parking money at the Fed and getting interest on that. Money has come out of that to finance the treasury, so it's it's not new money going into treasury bonds anyway. I think we need an exogenous shock or a change in expectations on earnings. So that's it. I wish I had more. I you don't have to have more. I think that's that says it. That says it all, so to speak. And we have a political moment too. I think this is the other thing. We're in the third term or

third year of a presidential cycle. It's usually good. Usually means the opposition has Congress, which means the politicians can't do anything. And we're gonna have that into next next year when you start another, it would be great for the rest of my life. At the federal level, the federal government is not a great record on Capitola occasion, not a great record on many things.

Although they are better. They have the noble quality of being better than every other government in this world, which is why I like being an American. There you go, big plug, waive your flag. That I am going to be waiving my flag. And that's that's going to be happening in in a few weeks. Anyway, Wave wave the flag. See see the fireworks. Uh, it'll be a be a good of good fourth and fourth July. You know, it'll be a great fourth in July. And I'll

give you the are All Young quote about uh theology that applies. I would say more to government than anything. People will complain about America. There's a Carl Young quote. You know, people who can't see God don't look low enough. People who don't like America don't look low enough. We're better than this is the best place to be. Show me another system that's worked better. Anyway, we'll go back to stocks. We're really excited about stocks.

Well, when we come back, we're going to talk about a few stocks that you're you're excited about some of the very small small companies that you happen happen to like. Yeah, me, I can talk talk about my large large capitalization stocks. We'll say till the cows come home and we'll talk about that and more when we come back. This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd Arnold here to help you invest your money, whether it be in your four o one k I are or elsewhere. Give us a call

nine to five two nine two five five six oh eight. You'll always get straight talk, not sugar coded advice. It says Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd Arnold here to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, how you should position your investment dollars, including your IRA in four oh one k. Don't hesitate to give us a call nine five two nine two five five six o eight. That's nine five two nine two five five

six oh eight. You'll always get straight talk, not coded advice. Before we talk specifically about stocks, I do want to make sure that you remember to fund your IRA four O one K on a regular basis. Make sure that you can tribute to the maximum and the case of a four to one K, it's not the maximum contribution to the matching grant, it's the maximum

that you can contribute to the plan. The more money that you can invest in a four one K or an IRA on a or SEP or other retirement basis, on a pre tax basis and allow that money to grow over time, the more it is going to benefit you in your retirement years. And yes, I know it's difficult to put money aside when markets are down, but that is the time that you can accumulate a lot more shares, particularly of high quality company that continue to grow their sales and then grow their grow

their earnings. In terms of some stocks that I'll say we happen to like, I'll say you do know, as we've talked about it for many, many years, that I am overweight companies in the Internet, leisure related companies, China related businesses, real assets, and kate keeping aside some money for shorter term trading opportunities, and that you know Internet related companies include h Apple

and Amazon, which we're definitely overweight. Leisure companies have been tilted towards U. I'll say gaming casinos including DraftKings and Caesar's Palace, China related businesses. All that comes back to Apple and even some of the semiconductor names which have been will say on fuego recently due to artificial intelligence. Real assets well come back to some of the casino names because of their ownership in real estate.

And I've looked at some other real estate investment trusts and then shorter term trading other than plenty of opportunities to trade short term with this artificial intelligence. I'm not going to call it mania, but artificial intelligence excitement. Judd, you happen to like some very you know, some small small cap stocks that one might be related a little bit to artificial intelligence. I've been talking a lot about Pagaia pguy. They got AI. They got two hundred data scientists at

their head orders. Two hundred. That's that's that's an awful lot of data's data. They got a line in their income statement AI integration fees. They're not fake, they're generating AI money. Okay. Now the guy is the dealing primarily in lending. Yeah, the guy is a white bank bank.

It's not a bank. They take no balance sheet risk. I would say the closest comparable company is up start ticker upst that has rallied from I believe alow of twelve to thirty seven in the last two months on Changing Consumer Center now up Start one of the covid darlinks peaked at three hundred ninety, so three ninety to twelve back to thirty thirty seven. Probably shouldn't have been at three ninety. Let's let's let's start right there. Okay, what do they

do? They It is what's called a white label solution. White label means up. We're talking about back to Pagaya. Pagaya goes to FinTechs and neo banks, so think lending Club, Avant and so forth. Who if you go on let um a lending tree and they've got a full list of consumer loan people, a lot of those use Pagaya. And the way they use Pagaya is the following those those folks that you'll see on lending Tree or nerd

Club or nerd wallet, what have you. Okay, out of every hundred applications they might accept fifty, Okay, they will send the remaining fifty they've rejected to Pagaya. Pagaya will use it to AI and take ten to twenty of those and but Pagaya won't loan them money. What Pagaya does on the other side of the house is they have ABS, that's Assetact securities investors where

they pre raise ABS pools. Last year, over the last I want to say, twelve months, they are the largest issuer of consumer loan ABS in the clinic, well in the world, technically I eight and half billion bucks they've raised. They take that those ABS investors buy the loans, and so the guys who they buy the whole like a whole group of loans, one at a time, they buy them. Okay. And so are these smaller

loans smaller loans okay? And this is one vertical. So for guys in personal loans, it's an auto loans and they got a new business and single family rentals too, but most of the money right now is auto and and personal loans. They also do credit card receivables. Okay, I'm using personal loans as an example, but this applies the Holy well to haul them. Okay. So for guy, what they're telling the ABS guys that the people who buy the bonds and underlying the loans, we have AI and we can

figure out the lenders are using FICO scores and all this other stuff. We use all our a I are two hundred data science and we can figure out these tougher credits that we should be lending money to. Okay, and you put those into ABS securities and the ABS guys making a twelve percent return, and what is paged get will they clip a percentage about two to three percent of the money raise they depending on where you are in the credit cycle,

though Leer takes some from the ABS guys or from the lenders. The lenders they partner with. The deal is unbelievable. Paguya shows up and says, here's the deal. There's this whole universe of people that you're saying no to. Okay, we will give you the money to lend to them. You get to take the majority of the fees. We're going to take two to three points, you you take four to five. You keep the customer,

you keep servicing it. You don't know it's us, but you take no balance sheet risk, and we're going to grow your loans outstanding and your or

your customers outstanding and your franchise by twenty to thirty percent on average. Okay, Now, how does how does paguia make sure that those loans get paid back or the interest on those loans get paid back if in fact they're dealing with um credit or yeah, or that may not be or that had had originally been turned down by a lending tree or lending club or or you know

some others. So but that is doing all like there are defaults. The all in cost of that of those loans is between eight and twelve percent, okay, and they're just get the It's really the ABS market is just comfortable with that. Rest Now. The ABS market is the asset back securities market. What they're doing when they raise an abstron the first sixty percent of the money is rated triple A. This is you know, an abstroch. It's like you know from the credit crisis CBOs and whatnot, right, So the

first sixty percent is tripla. The equity there's equity investors and they're C and B tranches in these ABS securities, which are very sophisticated credit investors. Okay, And they have this stable of super sophisticate investors so far Day, which is a huge Minnesota based hedge funds based in Bloomington, right out of the cargo Alumni Network, Angela Gordon, which is I believe it's one hundred and

fifty billion dollar cretch hedge fund, Deutsche Bank Credit Swiss. Those are the big and the government, the Singaporean Sovereign Wealth Fund GIC is the biggest investor in their ABS deals and a ten percent owner of the company. And interestingly with GIC, they just they had a five year deal to support Paguya's ADS

deals. They just extended it for another three Okay. So the difference between Pagaya and Upstart for example, and a lot of lenders in this space is Upstart funds the loans and then has them on their balance sheet they think for only thirty days and then tries to sell them. Okay. Guya never has them on the balance sheet, so you never have this fight. Guy who's doing US matching is clipping almost clipping of coupon clipping. Yes, for that.

The whole point is a guy is essentially Switzerland. They go to the ABS market and they say, look, we're going to create a security that you're going to get twenty individual different lending companies speeding into you do with Pagaya securitization and ABS, you get loans from Lending Glove, you get loans from Avon, you get loans from Alli Bank, you get loans from so Far,

which is one of their partners. You get this huge diverse FI pool, whereas Upstart, if they go to the ABS market, they're not in it. But if they did and there's people like them, they're going, here's the pool of upstart loans. And so there's this adverse selection issue in a big way. So Pagaya, as they get bigger and they're the biggest issue of consumer loan abs, it becomes this virtuous circle. Their data is better because they're seeing multiple lenders data come in. Their model is I presume

super good. But with scale it gets just better and better, and they get to show up with the capital. So yeah, they're making three points. They currently do eight billion dollars of originations. We're gonna have to come back. We'll come back after This is a lot of explanation. Okay, thanks, This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Judd Arnold here to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds. You should position your

investment dollars. Don't hesitate to give us a call. Nine to five two nine, two five, five, six oh eight. This is Josh Arnold, mister Money Talk with Judd Arnold give to answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds. I should position your investment dollars including your IRA. In four oh one K we're back talking about some of the ideas that Judd has in this particular market. Judd focus is more on small and medium size

companies. I focus more on large capitals, companies that are involved in the Internet, leisure, China related businesses, and real real assets, and also looking for some shorter term trading opportunities. We are talking this segment about all this is call it a le lending company called Pagaya. It is a small small cap not a lot of shares outstanding, difficult I'm not going to say difficult to get in, but might be difficult to move a lot of shares

on the way out. So this is not for a big portion of your portfolio. But it is a company that Judd has been doing a lot of research on and we wanted to share with you some of the companies that were looking at beyond you know, i'll say my favorites or in a large capitalization space. It's called from ten, it's scunned from ten dollars to fifty cents, and now it's traded treating in a dollar dollar twenty. It did be could be difficult to get out in a hurry, as a lot of small

companies are tree three and a half million dollars a day. We want to share this with you just to give another let's say, focus of some of the things. Let's get back. So now with Bagaya, the company holds no no money, they take no balance sheet risk, okay, and so the growth of this has been fantastic. In twenty twenty, they helped to originate one point five billion of loans. Okay. This year they're doing eight billion. Their goal is to get to twenty five. And they just add

an Ally Bank and so Far late last year. And with those two that should get them fit to fit, so that they are additional sources of capital for these loans well sourcing. Okay. So you're piggy with Pagaya. They're piggybacking on all the marketing that so Far does with their biggest partners. They do about twenty to thirty percent of those partners lending volumes goes through them,

and so the math is really simple. They're targeting twenty five billion of originations, three percent take rate, two hundred and fifty million dollars of corporate overhead. You get the five hundred million bucks of earnings times of twenty multiple that that's the ten billion divided by a billion shares, and that's ten bucks to share in the stocks in a dollar to one. Now, obviously there's a

ton of execution risk in that story. Oh yeah, particularly if you've got a company that was trading around miss Price, miss Brow it's you know, soul miss price it was. It came public during this back boom. The valuation was wrong, and now I would say it's massively overcorrected. What's intriguing about it to me, the partners of this company are the bluest of the

blue chip. You've got their biggest investor in their abs deals, the Singapore Souper Well Fund plus four really smart hedge funds and credit investors with Varda, the local hedge fund, Angela, Accordon a huge one, Atlas sp which is Credit Swiss's former structured products group that was spun out Deutsche Bank and many other people. Okay, on the bank partners, they just added ally Bank, the biggest auto lender in the country so far as a huge partner of

THEIRS. It seems like it's got positive momentum. It's got anyway, it seems interesting. We were talking about Cava earlier, the recent IPO, Cava SPACs. All this stuff is this big bucket called unseasoned equities. You typically traffic and most people traffic and what we call seasoned equities correct, They've been public for multiple years. There's no big surprises, and the game with seasoned equities is I have a diversion view on earnings or business prospects prospectively, but

everything is pretty well established with unseasoned equities. Much of the debate is what you're what you look at it with season equities, which is what are they going to make the business procects. There's also this huge the seasoning process tries

to establish how are we going to value these companies. So with Kava we talked about people are coming into Chapulta that may or may not be correct, but we do know three years from now there's going to be a market consensus that these are the comps for the company, and this is about where the things should trade. So you would expect unseasoned equities. Look, they can go up and down, they can be wild wild, and that's the opportunity

and that's the risk. Well, that's that's that's why I've said very you know, keep as small if you're doing looking at this very small portion of portfolio. It's not for everybody. It is an area of the market that certainly I have focused a lot of my career on. There are fantastic years and there are negative years. And I think one of the exciting things about this market we have a leveled field, if you will, from everything that went public, be a stack or IPO and twenty twenty twenty twenty one,

nothing really went public in twenty twenty two. Well, even when you talk to talk about a level level field, the companies that did go public during that particular period of time, those that are still trading are still in business. There has to be some that's why. That's what it was decimated. Absolutely, Like a lot of these stacks were COVID darlings. There were guestiming. So you've got things like Peloton that I think it's a ten dollars stock

now bounced off one fifty during COVID. That's not a place I would really like to be. You've got inventory issues, you've got cannibalization, you've got all sorts of stuff. Okay, I like stuff with where the perceived business quality nassively diverges from the actual and you have a growth story. So we like growth. That that we'll pound the table. We like. We like growth, and growth has done very well over over a long period of period

of time and has tended to definitely tended to to out outperform. And those sectors of the market which really aren't growing or we don't see a lot of growth, we tend to avoid. Um. It's really hard not to. It's hard to make money if you don't have growth. That's the problem. And there are plenty of areas where I do not see a lot of a lot of growth growth happening. Um. But definitely do see some growth happening in the segments that I have I have delineated. UM. Well, let's

talk big, big pictures. Just to wrap up, it's been a huge week. Number one. The FED seems like they're done and or at least that thesis is played out. There may be a few more interest rate but it looks like we're transitioning away from a federal reserve cycle. Number one, number two. We've talked for weeks months even that the bare thesis is exhausted

and has been largely disproven. In other words, what they said is either wrong or it has played out and the market is where it is, which is far higher correct and without that, barring an exogenous event, we think the next moment for a market sell off potentially is really QUE two earnings, which is late July early August. And for the market to sell off, you would need a lot of companies to come out and say they're missing numbers

and estimates to come down. Barring that, let the bull continue. Yeah, barring that, we'll have to keep up up with that. Monday, the market is closed for the June June teenth celebrate market returns on Tuesday. Friday was an options expiration day quadrupo, which so Tuesday could be a little bit violatile. So whatever you do in investing, make sure you do keep a little cash on the sideline so you're able to take advantage of any market

pullback that happens. Particularly we see it happening in sometime in July. This is Josh Arnold, mister Money talk with Judd Arnold. We're always here for you. Call us nine five two two five six h eight. Josh Arnold Investment Consultant is a registered investment advisor located in a state of Minnesota. All securities discussed are for informational purposes only. Investing contains risk, including risk of

loss. Consult your investment professional before making any decisions about your investment portfolio.