Financializing Super Intelligence, Amazon's $50B Late Fee | #235

Amazon uh makes a contingent offer to put thirty-five billion dollars into open AI based upon them first off going public and secondly achieving AGI. It's kind of incredible that we've financialized uh superintelligence, which is amazing. The open AI to Microsoft definition of AGI was something like generating a hundred billion dollars in either earnings or revenue. I I forget. We're measuring compute in terms of gigawatts and AGI in terms of dollars.

I love it. Amazon was all anthropic for a while. Now they're Open AI. At some point, the circular economy becomes indistinguishable from the real economy, and I I think that's what we're seeing here. This is the entrepreneurial opportunity of a lifetime. We're talking about tens of thousands of times more. capacity to create more money, more value created. Abundance is gonna be absolutely rampant. Now that's a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen.

Everybody, welcome to Moonshots, another episode of WTF Just Happened in Tech, the number one podcast in AI and exponential technology. getting you ready for the future, getting you ready for the supersonic tsunami heading our way. I'm here with my extraordinary moonshot mates, Salim Ismail, DB2, AWG gentlemen, uh Another week. We've gotten to a cadence of two of these per week. Uh it's and it feels like we're always leaving so many stories on the table. But uh let's do our best.

Yes, we need to we need to actually move faster and faster and faster, just like the singularity itself to keep up with everything broadcasting. All right, let's jump in. Our top AI news stories. Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, Uber, uh accelerating at an extraordinary speed of change.

Our first story for today, Anthropic revises responsible scaling policy amid increased competition. This was a story I put to the top of the conversation because it's it's very significant. Um and you know, we I had Jared Kaplan on stage at the Abundance Summit, uh

last year, the year before, Alex, you know Jared well. I think he was a a roommate. Yeah, he w he was he was a year behind me in the Harvard Physics graduate program. Yeah. What an amazing what an amazing group of friends that you had. Uh but here's the deal. They're dropping their twenty twenty three pledge to not train advanced AI unless safety is guaranteed.

Uh and Jared's point, I think, logically, is if everyone else is rushing ahead, uh then us, you know, sort of hampering ourselves doesn't make any sense. Uh and I want to discuss this because uh it's concerning. You know, a lot of us looked at uh at anthropic as the most responsible party out there, them and Google. Uh

Thoughts, gents. Well, you know, safety feels an exponential racism. There's lots of thoughts, all of you at once. This is a metaphor for something, right? We're gonna race to talk about a race condition. Love it. Amazing. I wanna I wanna open with Salem here. Salim, go ahead. Okay. Well, I mean, safety typically fails in exponential races. Though you could look at the r uh the whole thing writ large as OpenAI cracked open and let Pandora's box out.

And so this is just the same type of dynamic occurring again. It uh speaks to the idea that technology is going to move at its pace and we have to move our human structures at that pace. We can't fall behind. Yeah. Dave. Yeah, no, it it's definitely history repeating itself. And so many of our MIT classmates went to Google uh back in oh four, oh five, oh six when it was don't be evil. Yeah. And they went there over Microsoft because everyone perceived Microsoft as being evil.

and Google was gonna be the force of good in all of tech and then uh you know they bought YouTube and then they built Chrome and then they you know, w what they promised the engineers early on, the ones that I knew anyway, is look, we will never store somebody's search history. How laughable is that in hindsight? So then they expanded out of search history, oh we're gonna store that for five years.

Uh but we're also gonna launch Chrome. Now we're gonna look at all of your browsing history, then we're gonna buy double click, then we're gonna run targeted ads based on everything. Then we're gonna do Gmail and and read every email. You know, Microsoft says they don't read your email, but Google says, well, we'll do what we want. We won't pry too much.

But they do read your email. And so that slippery slope of competition uh you know corrupts the original mission statement gradually over time. I gave a whole presentation in Davos on how this evolves. And Dario wants nothing more than some rules. And he's actually legitimately pissed. that he has to actually repeal his own ethical standards to be competitive because there are no rules.

There and you know, this is exactly how it has to evolve. Because, you know, Dario's in a position where he has to choose between being irrelevant, which doesn't help, or repealing the original pledge, which he doesn't want to do, but it's rather than being irrelevant.

Yeah. Your earlier commentary, Dave, was really spot on. This is what Cory Doctorow calls in shidification. Right. It's all out. Alex, what do you think about this?

I think there's n there was no credible mechanism to guarantee safety in the first place. I think the entire premise was probably wrong. I I I think sort of The the superficial gloss is, okay, we're in the the Red Queen's race and this is the race condition that everyone ten years ago was scared of finding the world in where we have a number of frontier labs all racing to do the terrible thing, that you build the thing and everyone dies. I don't buy that at all. I I don't think

th this premise that either a heroic individual or a heroic frontier lab was ever going to be in a position to guarantee safety. And in fact, the sort of I I remember back to To the earlier days of the Frontier Labs, where the concern and part of the reason why OpenAI was formed itself.

was concern of a singleton. Competition is how we guarantee that there isn't going to be a singleton that dominates the future light cone with superintelligence. And I I think similarly, the notion that there's going to be sort of unilateral safetyism where single heroic individual, like one of the more prominent AI doomers, or a very safety oriented frontier lab is somehow going to ensure

safety throughout the forward light cone, that was never going to happen. Safety, to the extent we get it, is going to come from competition. It's come going to come, I think, from a balance of powers and a separation of powers. And I I think what we want is competition between the frontier labs and maybe even to some extent competition between nation states, such as what we're seeing, to compete to do the best job

for advancing humanity. And I think any unilateral safetyism is probably a dead end. One of the questions is will safety become an emergent property in some form or shape, right? So Right now, what we've seen is anthropic go from a policy of we won't build it unless it's safe. That that's been their policy, to we'll build it as safely as the competition is building theirs.

Um and unfortunately it's a slippery slope potentially down to the bottom. But it's I don't see the mechanism for any kind of emergent property around the pier. We haven't seen the mechanism for emergent properties of what we've seen so far either. Well I I I would take the position that we are that in in some sense uh again, the the fundamental flaw I think in the thesis that safety would originate from a heroic individual or heroic organization is

I would argue it takes an entire civilization to align a superintelligence. We we took we took all of human humanity's content online and used it in compressed form to pre-train AGI, baby AGI, in the early days, like summer of 2020 with GPT-3, why wouldn't it be reasonable to expect that it will take?

all of humanity to defensively coalign and co-scale superintelligence as well. It's not going to come from a single lab. What what do you think about Elon's point of view that we need to uh build ASI that is maximally truth seeking as his mechanism for alignment and for safety. I I think that's just a fraction of what's needed. Um I I I that addresses a very specific issue, which is look, we don't want the AI to have one religion or to have one uh perspective on how you should live.

Uh we want it to be truth seeking and have all opinions in cap and we don't want to be censored. So that's definitely a problem, but it doesn't address the imminent job loss, um, the imminent consumerism. You know, the AI, people are conceding all of their most private information to the AI, the same way they did with their Google search history.

And it's accumulating that data and people aren't fully aware of what it's going to do. It's going to turn around and start convincing you to do things. And so if you don't have rules in place, Yeah, the natural, you know, profit motive of the AI companies is to start selling you things. And you saw this with that that anthropic Super Bowl ad that we showed in the pod a couple that was funny. We unbeliev I've shown everybody that ad now. But this is exactly where it's gonna go.

if there are no rules. And so I I completely agree with Alex's perspective that ten years from now, after we've solved all physics, we've solved all math, you know, we have global abundance, all of this is gonna look silly ten years from now. But in the three year timeline, massive job loss, total confusion, and massive rampant AI sales consumerism that has no regulation around it right now, it's gonna be an absolute cluster.

Yeah, especially for the consumer Dave, especially for the consumer first companies that are needing to generate revenue. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Well, you know, I actually after that last pod, you know, you showed that chart, Peter, that had uh Anthropic, you know, growing 10x year over year, uh, twenty-six billion in revenue forecasted this year. And

on its current trend will be the first company to hit a trillion dollars in revenue in history by twenty twenty nine, twenty thirty. And exceed open AI this year. And exceed Open AI this year. Crazy numbers. But I I said on the pod, you know, that implies like a thirty billion dollar or thirty trillion dollar valuation, but then I ran it through uh perplexity and it said, no, that implies a one quadrillion dollar valuation using the current market price earnings ratio ratio. Yeah.

uh uh before the end of this decade. Um Anyway, I I think that this is a more honest policy for for anthropic. Uh end of the day. Uh, pauseism was never going to work. I mean, we we we all know a number of folks at MIT and otherwise who advocated for a six-month pause. Just for the entire space to cool off and wait for safety to catch up. Did safety catch up? Whatever that means, not at all.

If anything, that functioned as an accelerant to capabilities. I also think e even in the DNA of Anthropic, Anthropic was originally, recall, was originally founded as an exodus of open AI employees who were purportedly concerned about safetyism or lack thereof at OpenAI. So they start a safety slash AI alignment oriented firm.

Then they rapidly discover that the best way to do safety is to have your own models. And they discover the best way to have your own models is to raise a bunch of money to train your own models. And then they discover the best way to raise money to train your own models.

is to generate revenue. And the cycle completes where yet again, an alignment oriented firm becomes a capabilities firm. This happens over and over again. I would argue at this point, alignment and capabilities are inseparable. There's like a deep duality there.

Yeah. Did you see the new standard by the way? It's uh Dario said, well, okay, we can't we can't live by our original plan to plan to not train advanced AI unless safety is guaranteed. So the new standard is we need to be as good or better than anyone else. It's like wow, that's a that's a very different bar. And we we see, you know, recently with the whole Department of War uh debacle with Anthropic and OpenAI, OpenAI cuts the deal.

Enthropic. Where does anthropic stand right now in that whole conversation? The they're in limbo. I mean I I write about this uh every day in my newsletter. Anthropic is at the moment, my understanding is they're in limbo. They're probably in negotiation with the Department of War, but they're they're otherwise in limbo and and cut off as a supplier and considered I I'm not sure whether they've I I think

Dario and others have made some formal statements that they haven't received anything in writing yet from the Department of War. But my understanding is that uh this administration has is considering them a supply chain wrestling. And at the same time, notably, OpenAI struck a deal. Yeah. And at the same time we hear that uh Anthropic was used by the Department of War to actually plan the attacks in Iran.

Well one thing that's really, really yeah, no, I mean y look, it's it's really clear that the the people who control AI, the US government and otherwise, can take out any world leader at any time now. The combination of satellites, AI to read every image and uh you know, universal cameras it makes it possible to decapitate any country at any time. We've proven that twice in the last quarter. Uh so the future of warfare is basically

Whoever controls AI chooses who gets to stay in power. One of the things I've mentioned before is we're living in a world where you can know anything, anytime, anywhere, right? It's a it's a trillion sensor. a con uh you know, over a trillion sensor uh planet right now with drones, orbital satellites, autonomous vehicles gathering data and then AI doing predictive analytics on what things are likely to be, even if you don't have data for it.

I was just gonna say, m maybe not even just a means to an end, but also depending on which analysis of the Iranian situation you subscribe to, maybe an end to an end as well. If if you look at Venezuela and the oil exports to China, and you look at Iran and the oil exports to China, uh, the picture emerges, or at least one possible picture emerges, that what we're seeing it is not just AI where clod is being used.

to to perform the Venezuelan operation, perform the Iranian operation as a a means to some sort of arbitrary or nebulous geopolitical purpose. But actually arguably with China looming in the background and possible Chinese uh invasion of Taiwan. And the risk to the semiconductor supply chain and Western AI that would cause, it may be the case that AI is also the end.

to to the means to the end and that what we're seeing more broadly is in in some sense superintelligence being used to protect the future of Western superintelligence. Yeah. Yeah. And there's there's a window of opportunity, maybe a few months.

to put some kind of structure around this globally where you'll you'll see later in the podcast that the the models are improving it uh this like three X, four X reduction in parameter count, ten X increases in intelligence. You know, just every time we podcast it's another step up.

And we were already predicting where I was anyway that this is gonna be a hundred X a year, uh just in terms of raw parameter count. But I think that's the lower bound now, looking at at how just the beginning of the year has progressed. So There's a window of time where the power of AI that percolates out

to every country in the world is gonna be ridiculous by the end of this year. You know, create any virus you want, create any nuclear weapon you want, just working with your AI agent. So there's a window where we can start thinking about regulations that register The AI. use cases and agents and chips and processing.

before chaos breaks out. But you can see that that that window is is executable now because you saw Venezuela, you're seeing Iran, you know, clearly there's this tipping point happening right now where, you know, whether it's NATO or whether it's uh the United Nations or whether it's the US Congress, some entity needs to start Formulating some structure around this because it's happening this year. Yeah. I mean people need to wake up.

Um you know, e ev every single element of humanity right now is gonna be accelerated, reinvented uh by this. Salim, go ahead, please. Um to d Dave it it just struck me that you mentioned the uh Congress, the UN, NATO, probably the three most toothless

um um uh entities on the planet today. So the thought that they would actually get together and do something or anybody do anything, I think is is low. I think we have to assume that it won't happen and look at the the other side of that. Uh one thing about the Anthropic case. There is a potential I looked up an analysis. They do have a legal challenge potential because the way that that was classified is so ridiculous.

uh to make them a a th existential risk and all that supply chain risk, et cetera, that they have legal recourse to fighting that and they might might win that. Yeah, the thing about the legal recourse is that that process is usually a three year long window, which is hilarious. Yeah. No, if if there's no framework and no rules, uh

It's it's a lot like the NFL was back, you know, twenty years ago when the defensive coordinators would pay bounties to the linebackers to take out the quarterback. Like just take him off the field. I don't care if you break his legs. Uh and he and take the you know fifteen yard penalty, who cares? Because then he's done for the season. The NFL said, This is not good for business. Like we need we need some rules. Did not expect that pivot.

Well that's where we are with AI right now. It's like hey. Let's continue with uh the anthropic story. And every week myself, my research team study the meta-trends that are impacting the world. Topics like computation, sensors, networks, AI, robotics, 3D printing, synthetic biology. And these meta-trend reports I put out once a week.

Enable you to see the future ten years ahead of anybody else. If you'd like to get access to the Metatrends newsletter every week, go to diamandas.com slash meta trends. That's diamandas.com slash meta trends. I found uh this story pretty fascinating. So Anthropic expands Claude's agentic capacity. Uh two different sides of the equation here. Uh co work gains scheduling.

Right. So this is a cron job. So Claude completes recurring tasks at specific times, for example, generating your morning briefing or spreadsheet updates or your Friday presentations. I mean That element was very much what we saw in OpenClaw, right? It's interesting. And the second half of this is that Claude code has enabled remote control. So you can kick off a task on your terminal and pick it up on your phone. Um, you can control it uh from the Cloud app or from a a URL.

And I'm wondering, you know, this has probably been in the works for some time. So when Anthropic basically, you know, tried to do the kibosh on on Claude Bot. Uh I'm wondering if that was because they had this in the works. Uh basically what OpenClaw has been doing is what Anthropic is just rolling out under under a different approach.

Oh for sure. I I take an anthropic at their face that this was or o open claw, I guess, that the challenge was more trademark oriented than anything else. But I I do think they're uh what have I been saying for uh weeks slash days at at this point that was distinctive about open claw. It's the two things. It's it's headless, able to function autonomously for twenty four seven.

And also that it's convenient to chat with via conventional messaging channels. And what do you see here with cowork? Cowork is able to autonomously be scheduled headlessly. That's the headless part. And then remote control. That's the the mobile messaging type part. But I think both of these are half measures. Like I I'm insufficiently motivated by each of these. I use cowork from time to time and I use Claud Code all the time. And neither of these I think is

is as compelling, at least conceptually, as a more open claw-ish framework where all of these are cleanly packaged. And I I think m my guess is anthropic and open AI and all of the other bigs.

will be forced to release their own sort of first party open claw competitor sometime in the next couple of months. So there's something I found very profound about this plus our last conversation. around open claw and everything happening. I think s I was thinking about over the last couple of days. Something very profound is happening, which is the sheer democratization of compute power, right?

Note the agency of an individual developer with a Mac Mini and running Quen locally and OpenClaw has unbelievable agency in decentralization now. Uh it not controlled by any centralized authority, not controlled by any uh centralized uh command structure, they can essentially operate as they feel like. So this is this an incredible independence and agency at the edge, which is going to really blow open innovation in a way that we call it. Sixties maybe.

Total democratization, total democracy. And demonetization, as we're seeing it happen in in cascading down, as Dave mentioned earlier. Ironically, from China. Yes, ironically. Ironically, from China, and then one other nugget, you know, Peter, your theory is a hundred percent right. You know, Anthropic. Why why didn't Anthropic just throw out something better than OpenClaw a year ago? It can and will delete things off your laptop.

And so all these OpenCloud users, including my kids, including me, actually have separate laptops or separate Mac minis, you know, including Alex Finn, you know, in our podcast we just did. Uh they run it on isolated hardware. Anthropic couldn't really contemplate throwing out a product

Then say, yeah, but run it on separate hardware. Don't like how are you gonna do that? So this creates a huge entrepreneurial opportunity though. If you say, you know, listen to what Alex said a second ago, OpenClaw is unbelievably compelling. And anyone who's started down that path will never go back, right? It's just you just you'll never give up your Jarvis once you have a Jarvis. Have either have any of you played with uh with Perplexity's computer?

I've been hearing really good things I've not tried it yet. I I looked at the demo. I I think it's an interesting step in the direction of counsels for everything. And I've had so many people over the past few months ask me for something like Perplexities Computer where you they're right now if if you have a given task

They'll manually go to the top three or four frontier models, ask them for independent opinions, and then try to synthesize that in into one coherent whole. And that that is essentially what Perplexity Computer tries to automate. There are others in the space as well. But I I think even there that it's nice sort of sugar uh

syntactic sugar, if you will, around the existing models, but I don't think it's transformative. Uh I I think ultimately e even this ability to counsel up uh or to create juries around lots of competing models. That's just going to be table stakes as with so many other forms of scaffolding. Did you just say syntactic sugar?

It's a term of art in computer science. You were saying this as well. All of the big players, all the hyperscalers, all the frontier models are gonna have to develop some version of OpenClaw because it's gonna become the de facto every person's gonna have their own version of Jarvis.

Yeah. But remember, it's really expensive too. Uh this is part of the reason. It's not the only reason for running, say, Quinn locally under an open clause scaffold. That's a lot of compute if if you have one or more agents that are running constantly for you.

I'm not sure Anthropic in its present state even has the cloud infra to be able to launch a product like that. And I think in many cases, Anthropic, OpenAI, the others are probably just waiting around for for their infra to catch up with applications like that before they launch it. Yeah, agreed. This is the entrepreneurial opportunity of a lifetime, though. And anybody who jumps in and there's so many different versions, so many different things to play with.

But when you go to JP Morgan, you know, the Justin Milligan who just joined us, his division at JP Morgan was only allowed to use GPT four. Wow. Like, are you kidding me? And he he couldn't take it. It's like this is ridiculous. But no one has figured out, okay, but how can I use it in this highly secure inside the firewall, inside JP Morgan environment? And and you know, Dario's not gonna answer that question.

And, you know, the the open cloud team isn't gonna answer that question. And they want everyone to thrive who uses their platforms. They don't they don't wanna kill every job. They want any early adopter to to thrive as they thrive. And you know, Dario, if he hits a quadrillion dollar valuation, he doesn't need more more money. He needs a he needs to not destroy every job in America or in the world.

And so this is really entrepreneurial heaven if you can figure out how do I get what I can use right here on my my Mac mini. And it can clearly solve all these problems. How do I get that inside a real world use case without breaking everything, without regulatory prompts? Many, many, many job opportunities in that theme. Aaron Powell One of the challenges still with even with with with Claude's agenda capacity is um you know giving AI uh recurring unsupervised access to your workflows.

Uh means that either there are going to be a bunch of errors or you're going to be spending all your time checking the work before you hit publish. Um it's still gonna keep the human is still uh, you know, in the loop to assure uh quality or alignment. There will be a point at which you trust it completely, but we're not there yet. This is economics one oh one, or I should say microeconomics one oh one. When the cost of one good falls to near zero, the value of the complementary good increases.

So as the value or I should say as the cost of generation of content becomes post scarce, which is exactly what we're seeing, that increases the value of its complement, which is verification for now. For sure.

All right, going to our next story, Claude, in keeping on the uh on the Claude theme, Claude Gaines cowork plugin templates for finance, banking, and HR. So this is fascinating, right? Anthropic is building enterprise agent marketplace. Um it's department level AI infrastructure, and it's taking down company after company after industry. Um What's you know, we've seen uh just you know, the decimation of uh

of a number of players out there. What are you thinking about this? Well I I wouldn't interpret this as you know, when Microsoft launches in an assault like uh on the relational database, it's it's a big, you know, multi billion dollar investment. Here, uh, Anthropic can build these connectors and adapters, vibe code them in probably an hour. You know, it's a and anyone else can too.

So I wouldn't perceive it as, you know, anthropic as taking over all banking software. It's just so easy to build the stuff now that you might as well roll out all that functionality. So I wouldn't over read into the intent behind it. But I don't think it's in I don't think it's intent. I'm just saying you know the implications are profound though. So I've got two thoughts. One is every department now becomes like a programmable intelligence layer.

Right. Uh and basically all prescriptive logic in companies collapses into these AI agent roles. And the real prize here is enterprise orchestration. Uh not so much chatbots, but autonomous uh workflow network. because this this is what I'm uh talked about last time. This is the organizational singularity. We go from human centric approvals hop to hop to hop, human to human to human. to agentic workflows with human beings doing oversight, dashboard monitoring, and um ex uh exception handling.

A couple of comments on this one. If you actually look at what these plugins are that Anthropic's launching that are causing the so-called SAS pocalypse and Reducing, you know, carving one and a half trillion dollars off of market caps of various software companies, they are absurdly simple. They're they're just a bunch of MCP model control protocol wrappers and a bunch of skills with a set of bullets for how to go about carrying out different job industry roles or labor categories.

This is not that complicated. I'm I'm reminded, remember the the scene in the Matrix, uh the the the villain is is busy unplugging people uh without their without their cooperation from the Matrix, killing them in the process and one of them

That that's basically what we're seeing where these are these are just simple text files in many cases that are reducing single-handedly the market multiple, the trading multiple of entire industries. I I think On the one hand, it's incredible that a simple text file can say

chop ten percent of the value off of a CRM firm, uh at least market value. On the other hand, these as pointed out earlier, these these plugins and the marketplaces of the plugins are so absurdly simple that I would reasonably expect these plugins are going to get just built in, since they're just scaffolding anyway, built into the next baseline version of the model and won't even need to exist.

independently in the future. Alex, I think the interesting point here is a year ago, if you had delivered this as an entrepreneur, you'd be out in the market raising at multi billion dollar valuations. Mm-hmm. Yeah, it's called it's called hyper deflation for a reason, Peter. I mean I I get it. I just want people to be aware that, you know, the moat for an entrepreneur coming forward was something amazing, uh that we're gonna reinvent the entire HR industry or the investment banking industry.

Uh and You know, raising at a four or five billion dollar valuation It's basically that moat's gone months or a year later.

capacity to create more money, more value created, abundance is gonna be absolutely Rampant. And there's no reason to be afraid, even though Like if you're a CRM company, your twenty year future cash flows from recurring maintenance revenue is suddenly gone. Yeah. That's true, but the opportunity to pivot and thrive is bigger than than ever. And so I think a lot of people are are there'll be a ton of volatility.

'Cause people haven't mapped to the new reality yet. But opportunity is bigger, not smaller overall. That agility is fundamental to large organizations' uh success. You know, I I talked about on the last pod the uh you know the asteroid hitting the earth and changing the environment so rapidly and the slow lumbering dinosaurs going extinct. That's exactly what we're talking about here. I mean Salim, do you think that we can see large companies pivoting, you know, rapidly enough?

Zero. Zero. They will not be able to do it. I mean, look, we've seen this throughout history. It doesn't it doesn't work. I think where you end up is not to throw another metaphor at this, but you end up where we saw with Google Ads where you you kinda took out the advertising market massively and then Google Ads becomes like a coral reef with lots of little species feeding off the reef. Uh and if you're the reef then you're in great shape. But in this case,

the reef itself is disappearing as we can decentralize completely to uh one-off uh computers uh running things. There are people using OpenCloud to go to small businesses sitting down in front of them and automating workflows live. for small businesses. This is like incredible what's going on.

You know what else, Lim? Uh Oh there are a lot of private equity funds that are coming at us now saying, Hey, you know, s big companies never change quickly. Wait, this big company could be a small company very quickly because we don't need all these people. Now we have a small company with huge, huge cash flow. Wow. So it's a good thing. So there will be a PE fund emerging shortly, whether it's not if it's not there already, that is going to buy up um um kind of medium sized big companies.

And set up a digital twin infrastructure on the side where you have an AI native digital twin and you just move workflows over to it and you'll collapse the cost of running that organization by about three to five X Well that's what macro already Mac already exists. I I I've started multiple companies like that. I've even tried to popularize a term for it. I call it an IBO, an AI buyout. We've seen multiple PE firms doing that. Like this is table stakes at this point.

Yeah. And of course Macrohard's, you know, vision is I'm going to come in and digitize your entire employee base and operate it. That's for that's for pure software place, but I think we're gonna start to see this in In real um potatoes, like like Project Prometheus from Jeff Bezos is is attempting to do this for industrial firms. Right. Uh yeah. Anyway, I think the point uh uh here is uh large companies

need to take action right away. So Salim, what is your what's your advice for a large company, a CEO listening? And and seeing this coming their way, what do they do? Uh exactly what Alex just said. You set up an AI native digital twin on the edge. You run an immune system 10 week sprint uh to block the response from the mother ship. You grow this thing and slowly move workflows over or as quickly as you can. You do a combination of bottom-up and top-down workflows.

And the real shift in people's heads needs to be that instead of human centric workflows, which is how what it's been like for the last hundred and fifty years, we now move to agentic workflows where you can get things done much more effectively with uh hordes of little agents, two layers, strategic layer and an execution layer, and then human beings

uh doing oversight exception handling, etc. Because coordination costs go to near zero, execution costs go to near zero, and in and outside the firm, the future of the firm becomes a legal fiduciary liability purpose holder. And two other things real quick. The first is your brand, if it's if it's reasonably good still, you own your brand and you own those customer relationships for the moment.

I I think it's worth also rereading Clay Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma, which it exactly addresses this. Salim, I know you're a big a big fan. We all should be. The Innovator's Dilemma contemplates, hey, every ten years something truly disruptive is gonna obliterate whatever you do.

And here's how you should react to it in that moment. But now instead of every ten years, it's gonna be every ten months, and then soon it'll be every ten weeks, and then, you know, it'll be every ten days pretty soon too. But it the playbooks is still the same. You know, re read the innovators dilemma, invest in the new thing. Use your capital leverage in your installed base.

To invest in a new thing. I just got off a board call for one of my portfolio companies and you know my comment to my board and to all boards out there is you have got to give your CEO top cover. to be dramatic in their modification of the business because uh you know and you have

I know. Yeah, you're either the disruptor or you're disrupted. Founder mode after everyone. Right now, you get founder mode. You get founder mode. Yes. I mean that's basically it. If you're if thing if the company and the board and the board and the CEO are not in founder mode and willing to do dramatic uh surgery on the company, you're dead. You're you're walking dead in any industry.

I'd also be remiss, Peter, if I didn't point out here we are basically on on the eve of abundant knowledge work, knowledge work, of course, being cooked. knowledge work be about to be post scarce. And here we are wringing our hands over where to find scarcities in knowledge work as is about to become abundant. I just wanna point out the irony. such an ex extraordinary time to be alive.

All right, uh talking about disruption, uh disruption coming out of China, Alibaba's thirty five billion parameter, Quen three point five Uh Medium outpaces$235 billion quen three in benchmarks, um, the power of small, open weight models.

So Alex to you, buddy. This is happening in Western models too. The difference is when, say, OpenAI launches a mini model or Google DeepMind launches a flash model, they don't advertise the parameter count, so it's not as viciously obvious as it is when a a Chinese frontier lab launches an open weight model and we get to see

w the benefits of distillation in a successor model, but it's striking we're we're seeing almost 10x reductions in parameter count while maintaining capabilities or even increasing capabilities. And and the the broader picture just to keep in mind is the capability density of models is increasing. And this goes hand in hand with uh what we've talked about in the past, Sam Altman's comment about forty X year over year hyper deflation of costs at constant capability. In in this case

I I just my mind immediately goes to what's the end game here? If if we can see an increase in capabilities with a reduction from 235 billion parameters to 35 billion parameters. What does the end game looks look like? Where does this end? Does it be a little bit more than a little bit? Uh if you remember that, Dave. Uh yeah, for sure, for sure. And yeah, he he said he does he asked his research team not to give him parameter count anymore, just give me bytes.

Yeah. Because you know, they keep quantizing and shrinking the file size. Uh I had a lot to say about that, but I I I bit my tongue'cause that perspective isn't right either. But but Alex predicted this a long time ago. I don't know how you saw this coming. But there's a lot of things. I just look at look at the scaling law curves and extrapolate. Well it's I mean I mean in this case. I was I was on the treadmill this morning watching old Moonshots podcasts and I'm like, wow.

That was like so long ago and I look at the timestamp and it was it was only like two months ago or three months ago. Like holy crap. Things are changing so quickly. But yeah, Alex, you said this. I think you're the first person I ever heard from it saying, look, you know, w the equivalent of a GPT five is gonna be maybe thirty, forty billion parameters, but it could get as low as one or two billion truly

Ca'cause right now when they train that caliber of model, it has all this junk knowledge in it too. Not more thinking junk, you know, Twitter feeds and Kardashian news and all that other junk thing. Strip that out? This could get very small and very tight and very cut.

of AGI or superintelligence and the rest lives in a flat text database or something. Well that that will you know, another thing Elon said is we're not as smart as we think we are. If you if you get superhuman intelligence down to a couple of million parameters, you're gonna be like, Wow. Well, we are we're really not that smart. The first person I heard speak about this was actually Imad.

Imad Mustack speaking about what you can get onto your phone. We'll see that in a moment. I mean so my question is, is this bad news for the big compute incumbents? Right. If if m massive you know data centers are being invested right now, I I think this is so good for the startup community, it's fantastic, but you still need the big model. Well it it the it comes down to it's something Alex also talks about a lot which is Do we have boundless?

boundless problems we can solve. Like if you get everything to be a hundred times faster this year, you can just do that much more. Do we actually run out of things to do? You know, is physics infinite or is physics finite? Is, you know, is human benefit infinite or is it finite? And we'll find out, I guess, in a year. But my guess is no, every every time you shrink the model and make it faster, you're still gonna use every single chip in that data center just for the next thing.

It it's b especially when you start getting to the uh the the full cell simulator and all the health stuff that everyone's really eager to do. I mean that is very, very compute intensive. And it's gonna be better. I uh Peter, I I thought sixty four kilobytes should be enough for anyone. Exactly. Exactly. Oh the good old days. Uh check out this. So uh I saw this on X this morning. So this is Quen 3.5 running on an iPhone 17 Pro uh on airplane mode. Um and

This is extraordinary. So it's a a a two billion parameter six bit model running on Apple Silicon. So imagine you're any place on the planet, you don't have Wi-Fi, but you've got uh Quen on your on your device and it's got all the intelligence you need. I find that. Yeah. Like seeing demos like this in in my mind underline uh either depending on whether you want to see it as competence or otherwise. How much of an opportunity Apple has to finally take the lead with local models.

or conversely, how far behind they are in terms of taking the lead in terms of local models. But either way, Clearly, there's this enormous overhang. We could be running enormously competent reasoning models locally on all of our recent iPhones. The fact that it's not yet baked into the operating system, obviously, I'm very publicly uh

embarrassing, maybe one wants to call it. For Apple, on the other hand, lots of rumors that this time around, finally with Gemini integration, they they're on the critical path and they'll finally launch this. Finally Siri will not suck anymore. Apple intelligence, however they brand it. Note that the local ability able to go offline means it's unstoppable, it's uncensorable. I mean, this is incredible.

Yeah. Well that's yeah, that's that's the ultimate barrier too,'cause if if this can get to the level this year where it can it can do a gain of function virus, it can do a chemical weapon and it all fits into a tiny, tiny little package. Uh, you know, with nuclear proliferation back in the nineteen fifties, there was a theory that, hey, you know, if these physicists keep chugging along, they're gonna make something the size of a grenade that has the power of an H-bomb.

And then thankfully that didn't happen. It just the physics didn't allow it. Um but the AI is not gonna stop like that. The AI is gonna keep getting faster and denser and more compact. And the window of opportunity to put rules and regulations around this is very, very narrow now. It's really it's gotta be this calendar year. What do you think is going on in

In Congress, in the Department of War seen this conversation before, right? We had the head of um one of the big agencies, the head of innovation of one of the big agencies at Singularity, Peter. Uh you probably remember this and I do. We asked him how do you think about this when somebody could design a virus on an iPhone, something, something, etcetera? And he said, Look and it was the much more clever answer than I thought he would give.

Which was when you have kind of nuclear weapons, you know how many there are, you know where they are, you put eyes on it, you try and track it as much as possible. Great. When you've got something that's this democratized, what they're actively doing is opening up these communities. So they went to the biohacking communities and funded them. to open up because if you're trying to do something dodgy, you kind of need to collaborate with a few people and the conversations surface very quickly.

And then the community does self-policing, self-reporting. Somebody's doing something dodgy, asking a few people to they point it out, et cetera, et cetera, because it's in their best interest. And it's actually worked very, very well so far. What it goes t what happens when you get to this level is unclear, but I think the general trend has been very positive so far. I'll tell you one. You know, the way the way this evolved with financial services Being self regulated is

We think of it right now as oh, the federal government is incompetent, they're not doing anything. The researchers over at Anthropic are brilliant, they're moving a million miles an hour. It's gonna end up being the same people. And this is the way it worked out with the SEC. You know, when when you go who works at the SEC, oh it's the same guy that was at Goldman Sachs yesterday, doing his two years at the SEC or her two years at the SEC and then going back to Goldman Sachs.

That's the way it's gonna be with AI too. Right now, nothing is happening at the White House. David Sachs is there though. You got one brilliant guy. What's gonna happen next is anthropic people and open AI people are gonna actually be the people. working in the self-regulating agency. And so the the the people will have to bounce back and forth. And they'll do it because they're they're worried. They're conscious of the of the impact of not doing it.

Yeah. Yeah, still concerning. Right. Still concerning to have this level of capability offline. We know how to handle decentralized capabilities already. We we have printers uh in some s some cases states are trying to regulate three D printers and before three D printers we had two D printers that could be used. For counterfeiting we have But we but we baked but Alex, we baked uh software into all of those printers, right? There was a standard that was created for There were the yellow dots.

for any uh you know, for Canon, for HP, for any printer that detected you trying to, you know, photocopy uh you know, money. Um It wouldn't allow that. So the question is if we're talking about open weight models out of China that we don't control the software on, how do you bake in protection there?

There are so many different ways that one can defensively co scale against two billion parameter six bit models running on someone's iPhone. We've already talked about some of them. There are other ways in in the scheme of things. I I don't think uh sort of these edge devices running tiny Chinese open weight models, either individually or collectively, pose an enormous hazard to the market. Like they're they're just not that capable relative to the other models that are out there.

I think the frustration is that it the the solutions are relatively obvious to Alex. We've had this at this meeting at the State House before where it's like look guys, it's not that hard. Here's what we need to do. And then nothing happens. You know, that's that's the frustration. But uh yeah, registering the models, registering the compute, you know, tracking the tracking the GPUs and where they are, it's all very doable.

And and defensive co scaling of of making sure that the most flops are going to good purposes rather than bad purposes. I'm reminded I think it was the New Yorker cartoon. Uh guy is is up late at night at his computer saying, Oh, I can't come to bed. Someone somewhere said something wrong on the internet. We we we can't we we we can't get so so bothered by the fact that someone somewhere might be doing something wrong with a two billion dollar two billion parameter model on it.

So many agents running now and I I put in place a little rule that said, hey, before any process launches, write a mission statement and store it next to your code. And it solves so many problems. Because the mi I can go back and read the mission statement and say, Hey, what what the hell are you working on anyway? Well, read my mission statement. Like, wow.

That makes no sense, or that makes tons of sense. It's it's it's so simple. Like i'cause the AI is the first self documenting, self improving, self cleaning thing in the world. Yeah, yeah. Just g y a couple of simple little things like that will solve All these problems. Have you told them twice to do the same? Actually uh yes. Um

They it's a little bit different. It's look, whatever you're doing, make sure that it's in a written document that the AI can see too. I don't want any opaque activity because if the AI can't see it, then I don't want to see it. I w I want everything to be on the same page with us and the AIs. So you want to close this out here?

You know, I think um a key point that we have to remember is the ratio of good to bad. Um we worry about the downside and we should worry about the downside and it's and the the amplitude of the negative is getting bigger and bigger as people can run these models. But I always go back to the eBay Craigslist example where when you could first do eBay or Craigslist at scale, you could see human nature at scale.

And so anthropologists and sociologists studied the transactions at eBay and Craigslist. You can master email address pretty well. On eBay, I can throw up a picture of a MacBook. Put grab your thousand bucks and I'm off to Fiji. Right. So how do you d what's the actual ratio?

uh what is the n real true nature of human humanity? And by studying these systems at scale, Kijiji and Cando, Mercado, Libre and and Argentina, uh Craigslist, eBay, they found that the ratio is consistently eight thousand to one. Meaning there's 8,000 positive transactions on eBay for each fraudulent transaction. That should give you incredible optimism for the future of humanity. Yeah, agreed. All right. Let's move us along here. Uh let's head to the Google verse.

Google releases Nano Banana two. Uh so this is running on Gemini three point one flash. Uh it's four K resolution. Uh uh it's at point zero four five cents per image. That's a price point that's cheaper than stock you're gonna do. I'm sorry. Uh sorry. Yeah, it's four point five cents per image. Excuse me. Um it's cheaper than buying stock images. Uh and so is this the end of commercial photography, illustrators? Stock image platforms uh probably.

We're just getting started here. And I I think maybe buried underneath the headline, but in the release documentation, is this is the first image model from Google that combines a reasoning model, which I I think they used slightly flowery language for it, but basically the reasoning power of Nano Banana Pro with

the instantaneity, uh, I think they might have just said with the speed of Gemini flash model. So under the covers, I think this is like technically this is really interesting. It's combining probably some sort of diffusion model that that we get with reasoning capabilities. And I think achieving the cost reductions of a diffusion model with nonetheless the the capabilities of reasoning, we're going to see this spread from images, where it's mostly right now in video.

Back to text, back to code. There are a few other labs, smaller labs, that have started to make pretty loud announcements about how they're achieving purported five X, ten X cost reductions or speed increases using diffusion models instead of autoregressive transformers. But I I think this is probably the tip of the iceberg for some like final consolidation of auto regressive transformers, which are used for cogen and natural language m for the most part.

on the one hand and then diffusion models and diffusion transformers on the other hand that are used for images and audio and video. We're just going to finally get one consolidated architecture at the end of the day that does everything. Yeah.

I mean this is the uh you know wake up call for people to remember that whatever you're seeing, uh you cannot necessarily believe it. Every pixel is gonna be AI generated at the end of the day. Um Salim, thoughts?

I mean the cost strap is incredible. People are just gonna do so much more with it. Democratization of creativity. Great. Love it. Absolutely amazing. Yeah, I'm kinda curious, I don't know if you guys know, but the uh the curve on intelligence is just ridiculous. But on diffusion models

I don't really know. I know they're they've gotten a lot faster and cheaper in the last few months, but it it doesn't feel like the same type of algorithm. Like uh it may hit a wall. I don't know. Do you guys know? Uh open AI has been investing uh this is in the published literature, investing a lot of effort and probably DeepMind as well, maybe slightly less prominently. in trying to avoid the need for many iterations on a diffusion model. So a diffusion model normally, conventionally,

takes many iterations to start from pure noise and refine the pure noise into the final image or the final video. There there's there was a lot of interest that was publicly available, uh, call it six to twelve months ago, from OpenAI and s some other folks as well, to see if they could just one shot or two shot straight from pure noise to the final image. I I do think to to your point, Dave, I I think um, although I haven't seen

in maybe in the past two to three months, any scaling laws for diffusion models. Prior to that, I saw a ton of work on scaling laws for diffusion models. And diffusion models have scaling laws too. Everything has scaling laws. Yeah. You know, Ahmad would know all about this too. Let's pick his brain next week in LA. Absolutely. The new standard is, you know, go to Nano Banana two.

and ask it to generate imagery so imagery becomes free effectively and uh and you can f I mean it used to be I'd go my current workflow, my previous workflow was I'd go to Google Images and hope I found something. Right. Now everything is created uh from from scratch and it's perfect. I love this image uh in this uh in this slide here of Elon with Sam uh and Dario and and uh the the whole leadership team of all the hyperscalers.

Alex, you should be in there, man. You gotta gotta raise your game here. One more note. We're running we're running out of scarcities, but maybe appearing in that image is one of the scarcities our civilization has left. We we can we can make that happen for you. For for sure.

All right, continuing on with uh with our friends at Google, Gemini can now automate some multi-step tasks on Android devices. So Gemini is now an on-device agent that can navigate real apps and complete real transactions. uh you know handle doorDash, McDonald's, Starbucks for you. So uh interesting, significant. What do you guys think? Uh I think it's hugely significant. Expect Well look it it's been a long time since there was a feature function on the phone that threatened Apple.

uh in any way, but AI is is it. You know, and if you try to use Siri to do something constructive while you're driving, it's just so painfully impossible. Also, when you when you start an AI dialogue and you're in the middle of the conversation, the thought process, you don't want it to go away. It's a it's addictive and productive And if it follows you on your phone and seamlessly, it's just incredibly empowering. So if that if if Google wins that race with Android, they might actually

um, you know, chip away at the iPhone profit dominance for the first time. Now keep in mind that they also need the duopoly for antitrust reasons. So neither company can afford to completely annihilate the other one. They need they need some Parity and the balance on the pores. I don't know if you I saw the data. I mean, we've seen a significant drop off in mobile phones.

Right, in terms of mobile phone purchases. And that will be displaced, of course, by headwear and uh earwear and all kinds of devices that are beyond just your phone. Well, I think a lot of that is because So the reason the phone sales dropped off is because they didn't have a function or a feature that everyone was clamoring for'cause people used to re s get a new phone when the cameras were improving like crazy, they'd get a new phone every eighteen months to two years.

Now it's like, well, I can I can sit on this phone for three years, four years. I'm not even noticing the difference. But again, AI could completely change that, the neural chip. Sorry, Alex, go ahead. I I I think there's also a supply side element where the rising cost of memory is making phones in some cases more expensive. And we're seeing I I think a generational transition.

from smartphones absorbing the silicon and absorbing TSMC's output over to AI data centers as the new form factor for computers away from this, but just narrowly on Gemini for multi-step tasking on Android. This is what Siri was originally supposed to be about. And before Siri, this is what the DARPA personal assistant that learns or pal was supposed to deliver. We've we've known how to do this in some abstract sense.

For a decade plus. What was missing, why you ask, are we only getting this now? I I always like to ask, why do things take so long? Why can't they be faster? In this case, I I really think it was about a combination of reasoning models and vision language models that could fit compactly onto a personal device. And we're getting that now, finally, and it's going to be everywhere. But we really should have had this functionality, even without the ability to read the screen and understand.

arbitrary applications. We should have had this ten years ago and that's borderline inexcusable. Yeah. I think what's most significant here is the fact that Google has a huge installed base of phone. Right. Of Android phones. And the ability to take their their AI systems and that installed base. OpenAI doesn't have that, Anthropic doesn't have that. Uh and it's going to be a massive differentiator for Google. Yeah, Ample could have had it.

Apple could have had it. I'm a longtime Android user, so I'm super excited by this because this Yeah, you turn all my iMessages green, it pisses me off. Apologies for ruining your visual field sphere, Peter. Um but this is like agency at the operating system level, which I think is amazing. And it also means a c uh commerce APIs are becoming machine to machine first and human second, right? So you'll have less friction and consumer flows.

This is gonna reshape marketplaces over time. So it's really exciting. All right. Uh next article is a real fun one. Amazon uh makes a contingent offer to put thirty-five billion dollars into open AI. based upon them first off going public and secondly achieving AGI. Enter Salim with his normal rant. What the hell is A GI? I mean you know, it's kind of incredible that we've financialized uh superintelligence, which is amazing.

Uh f having AGI as a financial milestone is unbelievable, given we have no idea really I mean, it's great that intelligence has become a you know a balance sheet trigger. That's incredible. But but this is so weird. And thank goodness it says ore. Well Alec Alex, doesn't uh the the agreement between OpenI and Microsoft requires OpenAI to give the source code and all of the d intellectual property to Microsoft until AGI?

Do you think they use the same definition of ADI? I suspect it's the s something similar. So the the definition, my understanding, based on public reporting of the open AI to Microsoft. definition of AGI went through several iterations with the most recent iteration uh prior to their I think for-profit transition.

being and Salim, maybe you'll like this. It it did actually have a definition. It was something like generating a hundred billion dollars in either earnings or revenue. I I forget. So maybe we need to Coin like AGI as a unit of currency, like an AGI is a hundred billion dollars of earnings or something? Aaron Powell We're measur we're measuring compute in terms of gigawatts and AGI in terms of dollars. I love it.

Listen, that's fine. You could that's just all they've done is substituted an uh earnings plateau for that, which is which is fine. Right? This is fifty billion dollars. Um it dwarfs Microsoft's thirteen billion dollar investment. Uh and what you know, again I'm going back to what is Amazon credit? I would like to m make the point which we made earlier, which is that a lot of this is Amazon credits. So Yeah.

Th there's there are lots of uh lots of tendrils going both directions from Amazon to OpenAI and back based on public details of the announcement, like the requirement that OpenAI will use Amazon's training or training two chips.

for training, it's good for Amazon. It's it's good Amazon has a a a long and storied history of purchasing their own customers in in some sense, not in well in some cases literally acquiring them, but in many cases paying for the information and the learnings that come from having a customer that's using Amazon uh as the world's most customer.

centric company. And in this case, Amazon missed arguably missed the the frontier AI boat. And so paying to get themselves, to deal themselves back into the game is I think par for the course. They're their up to fifty billion dollars of investment is at far worse terms than, say, Microsoft's original billions when Microsoft was much earlier in the game. And I I I think this is just the price of

re-establishing themselves at the infra-level of the party. And uh it's also been reported that as part of this deal, Amazon will get customized versions of OpenAI's models internally. Amazon will get to post as the exclusive third party cloud host. OpenAI's frontier suite of automated AI coworker employees. So Amazon will get a lot out of this too. I mean, this is so incestuous. Uh you know, what's going on right now? I mean, and Amazon was all anthropic for a while. Now they're open AI. Um

Oh go ahead, Dave. Sorry. Well, well the the US public market, all companies combined is about fifty trillion. The AI companies are twenty trillion of the fifty trillion now. So, you know, it's incestuous, but it's like if that twenty trillion becomes thirty, forty trillion, which it inevitably will, it's the majority of the market is just seven companies. So when they do a lot of deals with each other, you know, it's

It's like, well, is that incest like it's it's the whole frickin' economy is is those handful of the thing. But even that I I that's not my take at all. In this case I I see competition and and I also see horizontal stratification. That if if Amazon is striking deals with Anthropic, but also with OpenAI and OpenAI is uh moving some of its workload from Microsoft Cloud to Amazon and also to to Google TPU Cloud.

That to me looks like A, the market for infrastructure for the frontier labs is very competitive. That's great for the economy. And B, it's starting to horizontally stratify. So it if If OpenAI is feeling impulses not just to vertically integrate Down to the data center layer itself, but is so compute-starved that it needs to, following the law of comparative advantage, needs to outsource some of its compute to Amazon with its training architecture and Google with its TPUs.

That's a sign, if if anything, that there's such insatiable demand for compute that it's raining on everyone, even with perhaps less loved compute architectures. Well well but but there's an interesting there's an interesting thing in negation here, which is XAI is missing in all these conversations, right? So Elon is going 100% alone. Uh Elon loves vertical integration. And he doesn't play well with others. He loves it. Corporate white collar use case.

People trust two clouds. They they trust the well three, I guess if you count Oracle. They c they trust the AWS cloud in a big way. And they trust the Microsoft cloud, Azure. And I guess they they sort of trust Oracle too. Not Google Cloud? No, Google Cloud, uh a bunch of our companies have been kind of bribed by Google to use Google Cloud.

You know, as Alex was saying, they'll they'll pay you to switch and some have taken it. But for the most part, you know, Google spies on everything. You know, that's uh their terms of service never say they won't do anything. If you read any terms of service from Google on any product, It says we may do this, we may do that, we may do the other which kind of implies they won't do other things, but if you read the legal

They literally don't restrict themselves in any way whatsoever from doing anything. It's honest. It's very corporate unf friendly. Honest, right? Yeah. Yeah. But you know, Microsoft Legitimately says, no, we will not steal your data. No, we will not steal your intellectual property. No, we will not not read your email if you use Outlook. Um and and AWS is even more, you know, so so people trust.

those clouds and then they want their AI model to be inside that trusted container inside the cloud. So so far it's just been clawed on AWS. You know, everyone's running away with clawed on on AWS. So all of a sudden, for reasons You know, I don't know, like maybe just variety, maybe maybe not having Microsoft and OpenAI be just, you know, bedfellows by themselves. Uh Amazon's going way out of, you know, massive fifty billion dollar

Uh move here to get two options on the cl on the AWS. Do we know what the valuation of this round is? I I think the reported valuation of open AI's overall round was seven hundred thirty billion pre. And and so, you know, this is not gonna be a big risk. I mean, if open a when open AI goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars. So you'll get a quick pop and it's probably, you know

What do we you know, we have three big IPOs coming up. SpaceX is uh you know, anticipated maybe as early as next month, I heard. And then we'll have Anthropic and then we'll have OpenAI. So I mean if you can get a fifty percent pop in your in your price shares in in six months, that's incredible investment.

That's not investment advice for anyone who's going to misconstrue that. Aaron Powell Well, hey, listen, uh I I'll give investment advice for people to get fifty percent in six months. I mean, why not? Just not investment advice from me. It's from Peter. Listen, if anybody can can get a fifty percent return in six months in any deal. That's pretty damn good. This episode is brought to you by Blitzy, Autonomous Software Development with Infinite Code Context.

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Another fun article this week is coming from Pulsia AI, created by Ben Serra. uh that runs companies autonomously. So they're currently running over a thousand companies. So imagine being able to take your company, putting it on Pulsia AI and say, go. So Dave, would you do this with any of your companies? Uh yeah, this is inevitable. I don't know if I'd use this exact product or not. I haven't checked it out yet, but a hundred percent the philosophy is clearly where things are going.

And you know, well look, a at the end of the day, what does an executive team do? You know, o other than a couple of hugely important key strategic directions, everything else is just Performance reviews, paperwork, you know, whatever. All that can be very, very AI'd now. I mean the elephant in the room here is okay, uh I turn it over to to Apulsia AI. But who's legally responsible uh you know, if your company, you know, has a breach of contract or fraud uh or harms a customer?

Uh is it Posia? Is it you? That's that's why I think where this ends is uh uh we get this question I think in the AMAs and otherwise all the time. Like what's left for humans? Uh should everyone become an entrepreneur? Well l let the chorus of YouTube commenters say, well, not everyone wants to be an entrepreneur. I I would say where this ends up, not in the distant future, like 10 years from now, uh, but in the the medium term, like five years from now, is single person conglomerate.

Where p single person can oversee lots of agents that are all building businesses. This isn't for everyone, obviously, but A as we start to to get toward, you know, one person or a zero person unicorn becoming more and more popular, I again I've I've argued in past we're we're likely already there in in some sense. But as we start to see that long tail of the the number of people per company over some valuation start to stretch out.

I I I think this model, uh, call it a broader model of a a one person conglomerate where you have a person sitting on top of basically an entire PE firm's worth of agents. starts to make an enormous amount of sense. So I I've been poking at at Pulsia or Pulsha and it's like a lot of micro businesses and some of them look like they're they're varying levels of of seriousness.

But I I checked and you can actually with some of its micro businesses, you can actually go and purchase stuff. So you can already engage in real commerce, spend real money via Stripe. With some of the businesses that are running on its platform. And I think we're gonna see so much more of this in the future from super bullish. you know, uh significance of of revenue probably or complexity, but it's the beginning. Um I put um I put OpenEXO on there.

Um I did to see okay, could we you know, I literally talked what half an hour ago about, you know, create can you create a shadow AI digital twin on the edge and this is essentially it. I think Dave's point is valid. It may not be this one, but Definitely these are going to be agentic hosting systems where you log a brand, you pick a service.

It'll email f and find customers for you. It'll run the execution for you. What we're seeing here is COSA's theory collapsing in real time, right? Because if you have a thousand companies in a few days of their AI run, This is uh the marginal cost of launching a company goes to zero now. It's fifty bucks a month to require.

run an organization, run a company on this. So this is becoming really surreal and we're gonna expect to see thousands of examples in station of life. And if it works it will blow up to millions. Yeah. And also these these things always come up from the bottom. And if you Just like up Yeah, you know,'cause yeah, like like a Jamie Diamond or some senior exec will look at it and say, It looks like a toy to me, you know, forget it. We're not doing this.

And then it sneaks up on them and they get crushed and they're like, What happened? But some some guy was using it to manage a vending machine or manage a, you know, social media site and it seems so trivial, but it comes up quickly. and it sneaks up from the bottom. That's the way the Mac was, right? Or you know, the the Mac was just perceived as a as a toy for college students, you know, it's never good for the enterprise. But then it grows up.

And grows into the enterprise. But this will happen much more quickly. I would also argue we've seen this happen before in finance with quantitative trading algos, which went from none of the volume in public securities markets to seventy, eighty, ninety plus percent of the daily volume. And

You know what? People survive. We still have human traders manually fat fingering trades i into the the public securities markets, but by volume, they're completely dominated by algorithmic traders. I think we're going to see the same thing. happening in the rest of the world outside finance, in the physical world, in various e-commerce spaces where over time most of the volume will eventually be dominated by algorithms.

All right. Watch this watch this news item, guys. Uh it will be interesting. Uh and um of course, uh Pulsia AI is one probably of many that'll be materializing. I thought this was a pretty fascinating conversation. Uh our article on Burger King launches AI voice assistant called Patty in employee headsets. Let's watch a video. Hi there.

Good morning, Patty. Looks like we had a great breakfast shift today. Is there anything that needs my immediate attention? The team's friendliness scores this morning were the highest this week. We are running low on Diet Coke in the freestyle machine. Thank you, Patty. Hi Patty. We just sold our last cinnamon apple. Thanks for letting me know. Would you like me to remove them from our menu until tomorrow's shipment arrives?

Yes, please. Okay. Apple pies have been removed from our menu boards, third party delivery, kiosks, and BK app. I will add them back as soon as tomorrow's shipment arrives. Thank you, Patty. Meet Puppet Meat puppets. You have to I two things. One, admire the the punny name Patty for a burger chain. So clever.

to w uh going back to my comments from a few pods ago, that we're going to be living in every single sci-fi scenario at once. This was a sci-fi scenario I I would argue uh called mana. Mana was a novel written by Marshall Brain. about twenty plus years ago at this point, where you had human employees who were on headsets, all taking directions from a centralized AI and businesses. We're there. We've arrived in Nana and it starts with fast food.

So Yeah, the only thing that that video didn't capture is how encouraging and enthusiastic the AI is. No, whether you're using it to code, whether you're using it, you know, to walk around and and pick things out of the fryer later. It's it's just so engaging and energizing. Uh th and that's the part that people are surprised.'Cause it seems like, hey, the AI asking me to or telling me what to do is dystopian.

Yeah, maybe, but it's it's really much more empowering and engaging and fun than walking around by yourself. I mean, I think that's a good thing. This reminds me of the of the Baxter robot where you would move its arms and show it what to do. And it showed a very friendly fellow who was smiling at you as he coached the robot, but he was literally teaching it to take his his own job. Um, for me the coaching tool is a transition to automation pressure.

Uh frontline services obviously become AI mediated.

Like performance management. So Uh this is th the end point here is going to be very interesting. So this is AI surveillance as well, right? So this is the AI watching every employee. You know, this is beyond just saying please and thank you. It's rating them on their efficiency. And and you know, calling it a coaching tool, Selim, is sort of like a corporate euphemism. Exactly.

So you dropped that tr the fries for the third time this morning? Let's see how it deals with that. Is this literally Peter? It's literally meat puppets. Oh my God. So funny. But uh so you know We probably see this entering everywhere, right? I mean, when you're recording a customer service call right now. Um you're effectively doing that without the feedback in the moment.

Um but as a CEO, if you wanna understand who the weak players are in your company or you wanna try and provide, you know, on the job continuous coaching and see who can respond. Um this becomes kind of uh this is highly efficient but highly dicey. You're saying Peter it's not not just knowledge work that's cooked, cooking is cooked. I think you're gonna see uh unions rebel against this.

Big time. Big time. Yeah. Yeah. And I don't know if there's any winning that war. I mean, I think at the end of the day, the AI co pilot is gathering a huge amount of data. And a lot of that data will go into the decision on what can be automated and what can't be automated. And over time everything can be automated. This is like the Amazon delivery worker who is wearing a pay a pair of AR glasses.

Uh and Amazon is saying, oh, this is, you know, to help you show where to put the package and warn you about there's a dog. No, no, no. Those AR glasses are training Amazon's model to replace you with a robot, to be very clear. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But, you know, if you if you rebel against it, what's that gonna achieve? So You just gotta get on the wave, man. There's no choice. I you just have to be a user. You have to get on either CloudBot or one of these other platforms and it's it's common.

And yeah, you c you can you can go picket in front of open AI's office like all those people, but it's not gonna work out for you, I'm telling you. Like it's it's I'm well motivated. I don't blame you for doing it, but it but it's not gonna work. Uh we're gonna see uh we're gonna see all of these fast food chains begin to bring in robots very shortly. Um I think this sort of version of Patty uh

You know, we're gonna get r you know, the unions rebelling against it, but I think we'll end up making it voluntary. And if you really want to improve your abilities, you'll volunteer to use Patty. Um Anyway, interesting. If you think about the warehouse worker or the frilator operator, if you get one in a thousand to volunteer, that's all the training data you need. Mm-hmm. That's why it's it's fruitless to try and fight it because y yeah.

Yeah the numbers just don't line up. Also I think this is hap the transition can happen really quickly relative to political swings. That this is you don't need that much training data to to automate away many of these tasks with with humanoid robots and VLAs so close to to being production ready for certain applications. I I just I don't think the transition period with

paddies or again, call out to manna by Marshall Brain, which foresaw all of this twenty plus years ago. I don't think the transition period is going to be long enough to to even necessarily give political counter swings uh enough traction to make it worth it. One year, two years? Well it's already ha I mean the transition's already happening. But to to to to VLA robots, I I think yeah, next two to three years. Yeah.

I I've got just a quick thought here. Um before this really has time to penetrate, you're gonna have drone deliveries of food like this and and it'll obviate a lot of this. Um I've got at the Abundance Summit this year I've got uh an incredible company, Zipline. uh coming uh to talk about what they've done. Um I love the company, love their ability to transform delivery services in the United States. This is of course the company that began in Rwanda by delivering blood supplies.

and are now operating with Walmart and delivering every thirty seconds. And uh their prediction in the next two, three years will be a delivery per second. Uh extraordinary progress.

All right, another delivery company. Uh this is Uber. So uh check this out. Uber employees have built an AI clone of DARA, the CEO, to practice their pitches. So before you go pitch Dara your idea, uh you should pitch it to his uh his AI clone. Um I'm curious, Celim, what do you think? Oh well this is great at one level'cause you get executive like cognition as a service. It really allows scalable leadership.

Um the uh we're actually doing this at uh OpenEXO where we've created a clone of me with loaded up with all the EXO thinking and all uh we're rolling it out to all the community members so they can ask me a question. uh as they're advising clients or companies or cities, whatever, and I don't have to be in the middle of that. So I think this is uh hugely relevant and I think it it makes absolute sense.

At some point someone's going to ask can the AI clone of Dara actually function as CEO and not just for pitch practice? Exactly. It's the transition. will persist for a long, long time with the same voice and the same face. Um and it's kind of in a sense locked in. If you win the race to being the Avatar, people get used to it. But they like the fact that there's a human being behind it. I was telling Alex before the podcast started that I I just love his Spotify version.

And then YouTube as well. It's the same voice on YouTube, Spotify and voiceover for Substack if folks want to listen to an AI version of myself on the innermost loop newsletter. Yeah, and I really don't care that it's not that it's AI generated. It's I know it's Alex who wrote the content under the covers and it just feels great and but but without the human being behind it, if it was some synthetic, you know, never existed person.

I wouldn't like that as much. Do you remember the movie Real Genius, one of my favorite movies. and where, you know, the professors in the front and slowly the students are are instead of attending class, they're putting their tape recorder down. Um and the professor finally, instead of uh teaching a class, plays a tape to all the tape recorders recording it. So I I I sort of imagine this is what we're gonna see here with these AI Clones of Dara.

Uh you know, it's gonna be Dara at some point is gonna just like take a vacation and let his AI clone run the company and see how it does.

We'll have to ask him this question on stage, Peter. Yeah, no, it's it's great. Uh and just as a reminder to everybody, uh Dara's gonna be on stage. Salim and I are gonna be interviewing him at the Abundance Summit.

And uh this year for the first time we're doing a live stream uh at the Abundance Summit. Uh we're gonna be live streaming Eric Schmidt, where Dave and I are gonna be doing the interview with Eric Schmidt and with uh with Dara, we're gonna be doing a live moonshots podcast uh with AWG, Dave, Salim, myself. So if you're interested in uh in actually listening to the live stream uh of the summit next week. Uh or depending on when this goes out this week, uh

We're gonna drop the link below. Uh it's free. Uh we wanna get this out as far and wide as we can. So enjoy. You know, the Abundance Summit is a high ticket price and uh we have six hundred amazing CEOs flying in from around the world. But this live stream is free, so go to the link down below and check it out. Um and I hope you'll listen in. It is fifty K, but we've been sold out.

We are oversold. Sold out at fifty K. What the hell? Oversold. Yeah. Well it's um it's an amazing event and so proud to have all three of you guys joining me this year. All right, one more event announcement. Uh again, uh super excited about this. Uh I'm gonna be joined by Ray Kurzweil, Stephen Kotler, Dave, and AWG on May the fourth. So if you want to join a very exclusive event, uh and spend the day with Ray, uh Steve, Stephen Cotler, uh, Celine um actually AWG and and Dave.

If you buy a hundred copies of my new book, We Are as Gods, this is the book that Stephen Cotler and I wrote as the follow on to abundance. Um you can join us. Uh the URL is we are as gods. book dot com slash one hundred. We are as godsbook dot com slash one hundred. We'll put the link below. Uh Dave, we're gonna be holding this at uh one Kendall right with um At Link Studios. Super, super cool. Alex, excited to have you as well.

On the Star Wars Day, is it a coincidence? Is this a Star Wars holiday? Aaron Powell I'm a Star Trek guy, but you know, may the fourth be with you is uh is an important uh reminder of when we're holding this. So uh I'm excited to have Ray there for, you know, four or five hours, go deep on all of these topics. And uh and again, uh if you wanna help move We Are as Gods to the top, the New York Times by set all list.

Uh you can do that. Uh just go to the link, you buy a hundred books, uh, you'll be there, we'll give you signed copies, and uh spend an enjoyable afternoon together going deep onto all topics exponential.

All right, moving on. Let's go to energy and data centers. Wow, look at this. US plans to add a record eighty six gigawatts of utility scale capacity this coming year. Salim, thoughts. Well, this is the point we've been making for a while that that uh the cost curve of solar is just dominating everything, plus the cost curve of battery. And once you have battery and storage available, you can unlock solar in a massive way. I'm gonna point to two uh data points.

uh track Ramez Nam if you wanna kinda go deep on this,'cause he tracks all this very carefully. But in twenty sixteen it became cheaper to d if you're doing power generation, to do solar than fossil fuels, and so almost all uh energy generation since then has been doing that. But in twenty nineteen we had a more important inflection point. It became cheaper to do

CapEx build and run a solar facility than just run op uh the just the opex of fossil fuels is more expensive than building and running solar. So uh f basically from now on all uh energy generation for the most part, except for specific legacy stuff, et cetera, or political stuff, is going to be renewables. And we see that taking over in India and China, and now finally here. And I think this is gr really, really amazing because.

Solar just keeps on giving and it's just gonna keep going that way. It's it's an unlimited uh resource. So Um, to all of the and and by the way, people worry about coal, et cetera. I think the coal industry in the US employs sixty thousand people, the solar energy industry employs half a million people. So it's it's not about the jobs either. So Get over it and let's just move on. Dave, you remember when Elon said he has a mission for Tesla to generate a hundred gigawatts of solar per year?

Yeah. Yeah. Remember when Eric Schmidt said, uh it was only a year ago, said AI's gonna require a hundred gigawatts by twenty twenty nine, it's a crisis, we'll never get there. And America's just incredible. Like when America gets mobilized, it's just the most amazing force in the world. And here we are. It's only, you know, a year later and we're like, yeah, we're gonna find our hundred gigawatts. There's no way we're gonna stop doing AI for lack of power. We'll find a way.

Yeah, and it's interesting. Also in in in an environment with diminished subsidies also, all of the hand wringing from months ago, oh the subsidies are going away, how awful it is. No, we're we're getting solar even in the absence of of the same subsidies we're gonna be able to do. Yeah, you don't need any of that anymore.

The economics just take over. And it used to be driven by people's concerns about the environment. Now it now it's making money and deploying AI. Feed the superintelligence. Yeah.

All right, this is a big story this week. Uh tech giants to self fund uh their production of power. So uh this is a White House effort. Uh we have Michael Kratios at the center here, a friend of the pod. We'll be doing a podcast with with him in the next couple of months here, uh asking the hyperscalers to actually build or buy their own power. And of course, this is in response to the consumers' concern about uh rising rates of electricity. Gentleman thought.

Well I think uh Alex was one of the first to say actually that this is this is not gonna be a problem because Well it's a very, very simple regulatory change that fixes the prices for the consumers and the data center operators um

They only spend ten percent of the total data center costs on power anyway, so they can find an alternate way without disrupting the consumer. If you let natural forces happen, of course they'll suck all the power away from every home because they can overpay by about five X. But it's such a simple little fix and here's the simple little fix. But I we yeah, pointed that out a while ago. Um so, you know, but it's also a case study where like, hey

The consumer is really, really worried about this little thing, like, you know, the the cost of their power. Like, come on, man, there's so much disruption coming. Like, but the politicians love to pick these little things and make a big deal out of it.

You know, get a whole bunch of votes, you know, do a whole bunch of press releases, whatever. And and that's my read on on this. I love the fact that these frontier labs are buying fusion plants and nuclear plants and gas generators and generating their own power. They're becoming, you know

Full stack, innermost loop all the way to orbital data centers. I I think what's really wonderful here is that in the past you used to have to have government making these big infrastructure investments to push the world forward. And now we're at a point where private sector can push the world forward, whether it's data centers in space or energy infrastructure or fusion or whatever. And I think that's incredibly good for the world.

Well, and also keep in mind the AI data centers, the the the prior data centers, you know, serving up video and Netflix and everything, they need to be near the consumer for latency reasons. But the AI data centers can be in the middle of, you know, West Texas and Wyoming and whatever. Or Kazakhstan. It can be any place. Or space. Yeah. So it really doesn't disrupt the consumer homes too much unless you deliberately

Camp right on top of them. Well which is the other point that's made to make is, you know, all of these conversations around not in our backyard. Well, if it's not in your backyard, you've missed the economic opportunity in your city or state because those data centers can go any place. here in Massachusetts and just could not get through like

You cannot be timid like everything's in Texas now. But but the moment it came and went, you know, it's well it's not over yet. But I mean it it come on, man. You gotta be much faster, much more aggressive, much more nimble. But yeah, yeah, like your your whole population of your state is depending on you to get on this bandwagon. It's trillions and trillions of dollars.

I I also think this points in the direction of enterprise use cases of superintelligence driving the cost, the m at least the marginal cost of energy down toward zero for consumers. In in the same sense that

All these enterprise use cases of frontier models are effectively driving the cost of superintelligence for intelligence's sake, for reasoning's sake, for consumers down to zero. You don't pay many, many people don't pay for Chat GPT or or Gemini, they're it's ad supported at most, otherwise free.

I I think this points in the direction of eventually so like right now it's the frontier labs have to pay for their own electricity bill. Tomorrow, two, three years from now, there I think we move to a world where AI has driven such an overabundance of energy that the the next deal, the next, next deal might be.

offering free electricity to communities within a certain radius of the data centers. And this is how we get to abundance. Exactly. Exact and the demand for electricity is going to drive R and D and more breakthroughs mediated by AI.

And you know, we're just at the beginning of understanding physics. Um I've seen five startup plans in the last few weeks around how to drop energy costs in data centers and data center optimization, et cetera, et cetera. So it's absolutely happening. Yeah. Uh let's go to the next story related here, uh, which is advances in energy systems. So here we see first off a thirty gigawatt hour battery. coming from Excel energy and form uh form energy.

And we're seeing our friends at Boom, which ri originally began to create a consumer supersonic airplane. uh generating one point two one gigawatt power uh deployment using their jet engines. I I love the fact that Boom has pivoted from building supersonic airplanes and dealing with the FAA uh to powering data centers now.

And and you catch the back to the future reference, right? It's one point twenty one gigawatts. Oh no way. I completely missed that. That's awesome. However it's pronounced it. Thank God we have Alex on the spot. That's so cool. Yeah. But this is a perfect example of innovation um being driven by the demand. This is what entrepreneurs do. Well that boom supersonic thing too, uh you know, we've been saying for a while that the future of investable companies

you have to reinvent yourself continuously and the cycle time is getting shorter and shorter and shorter. But if you if you look at the Magnificent Seven, none of them are doing what they did the day they were founded.

That's the company of the future. Boom Supersonic is a great case study in that. So what you're actually investing in is the management team, the strategy team. That's the only thing you should be looking at. Forget that agility. Agency agility of the management team. Yep. Yeah. Yeah.

All right, uh let's move us along here. Uh so um uh you know there were probably about 15 to 20 stories in this realm of hyperscalers, you know, just making deals between themselves. Meta enters a multi-year TPU deal with Google. Uh Core Weave Q4 revenues grew 110 year on year percent. Uh Core we've raised eight point five billion for data centers. I mean I I just put this up here to show sort of the energy and the flow going on. Any particular thoughts, Dave?

Well, it's all bottlenecked at the fabs. We've been saying that over and over again. And there's a lot of news this uh this quarter, this week on, you know, AMD is up, these other guys are down, you know, what's going on. I if you look under the cover, it's like, well, because they've got a good relationship. with TSMC and TSMC is gonna give them more capacity. Like that's all it comes down to. So, you know, if Google can lever into the TPUs actually getting manufactured.

The TPU designs are going to be you know highly performant. Um, but you know who who can actually get capacity to build the chips? That's the the whole bottle now.

Yeah. And speaking of which, our next article here is Meta and AMD reach an AI chip deal worth a hundred billion dollars. So uh this is our friend at uh uh uh Basically getting independent of NVIDIA. All right. So Meta is making a historic bet to break free of NVIDIA dependency. Incredible thought. Yeah, well if NVIDIA unravels, uh, this would be why I I'm not predicting it'll happen'cause Jensen's investing in a wide variety of ways.

But his margins are so high it's almost unsustainable. So there is, you know, there's some cracks in the armor there. But every chip that gets made is gonna get sold, there's no doubt about that. So here if you drill through the story The reason Lisa Sue's in a good spot is because she's in a good relationship with again T S M C under the covers. Mm-hmm. So, you know, sixty six percent of all AI chip production is done by the one company, T S M C.

And Meta, it's probably worth adding. Meta has this is public information, made various attempts to develop its own in-house training and inference time chips and to the extent those perhaps aren't arriving on time or aren't arriving at the desired capability level. Certainly a partnership with AMD that functions as a quasi vertical integration

is I think quite a strategic move. I I I also tend to think uh for for the chorus of folks who are worried about the circular economy, if it is a circular economy, the circle ultimately is getting so broad of companies investing in each other and buying multi deca or multi centibillion dollar

sets of chips of energy at et cetera from each other. At at some point the circular economy becomes indistinguishable from the real economy. And I I think that's what we're seeing here. Uh singularities make for strange bedfellows. Mm-hmm. Yeah and now in I I think all all these players are in the game, they're all gonna thrive like you wouldn't believe. We we talked earlier in the pod about the implied value of anthropic a quadrillion dollars some ins insane unprecedented number.

But really, you know, the whole economy, that whole circular economy Alex was just referring to is gonna be on that scale. Everybody who's in the hunt is gonna thrive. Lisa's in the hunt, Mark is in the hunt. Yeah, the the parts will move around. Um but at the end of the day they think about it all day long. They have a strategy. And Dave, here we see Zuck again deploying his cash generating machine.

Right. Before he was trying to buy talent, uh, you know, with billion dollar signing bonuses, now he's buying uh chip capacity. Yeah. I mean the question is how long will will Meta's, you know, uh ad agent You know, Facebook advertising engine continue to generate cash.

Yeah, there's no doubt that the core the core models, the you know, the click on the ads models are going away very, very quickly, but the overall AI dialogue business is gonna grow much faster than the click business ever was anyway.

So so if you sit still you're dead for sure, you know, like like an interesting bellwether in that is Snapchat. Mm-hmm. Like are they in the hunt or not? I can't I can't sense that they're in the hunt. You can't just sit there as Snapchat and expect to exist in three years. So You know, Meta is changing. We should we should bring the CEO on the pod and have that conversation with him. Yeah, yeah. Zuck has also indicated that Meta is opening is open to starting its own cloud.

So if if it can't find uh enough revenue from ads or otherwise to drive this, it could always say serve as a host for OpenAI or some other frontier lab. Full verticalization, right? Uh elite. Everyone needs everyone. Yeah. Dyson Swarms for everyone.

Not enough moons to go around. That's right. There's always Mercury. All right, let's go into our biotech and health section, just to mention this is brought to you by Fountain Life. Um they are one of my portfolio companies, so just for full disclosure, uh you know, AI is reinventing every aspect of our lives and healthcare is gonna be at the very top of it. Uh for me, making sure that you're healthy, that you're heading towards longevity escape velocity.

is really about having all the data about you, having data about generic people out there interesting, having data about you analyzed by an AI is the game changer. So if you're interested in that. Go to fountainlife.com, uh work with Zori, their AI, but most importantly, do that two hundred gigabyte upload. I do it every year, every quarter.

uh and I've got all of my data resident on my phone and Zori, my Fountain Life AI, can analyze it for me and give me meaningful information. All right. Thank you to Fountain Life for supporting this podcast.

Uh I love this story. It's a story of biotech success. Uh this is a gene therapy uh delivered by Prime Medicine. You know, the whole idea of gene therapy uh started back in the eighties. I was at uh the Whitehead Institute at MIT doing my graduate work while I was doing my medical degree. And I remember uh Richard Mulligan there was my professor of faculty. And the I first time I heard about gene therapy, uh, this was the idea of could you use a virus

um to deliver basically a new gene into the cells that you wanted. Uh a brilliant idea. Uh again, this is now, you know Forty years old. Amazing. Thirty-five years old. Uh it didn't work the first two times. In fact it caused some deaths and it put everything on hold. Uh the technology has moved very rapidly along. Uh and this particular teenager suffered from an immune deficiency, uh chronic uh granulomatose uh granul oh boy granulomatose disease.

Help me out here. Uh chronic GMD, let's call it that. Um and uh s cured, and this is the important part. This is not treating a chronic disease, this is curing a chronic disease. Alex, do you want to weigh in? Yeah, it's probably also just worth doing 30 seconds of education on what the underlying treatment is. So this is a a technique called prime editing. It was at least it It's attributed to David Liu, who runs a chemistry research group at Harvard. No, David, he's doing amazing work.

Uh but many people may be familiar with CRISPR. You know, CRISPR uh of course uh widely hailed as being a a tremendous advance in terms of enabling D DNA editing. Uh there are variants of CRISPR for RNA editing, for uh for for various sorts of uh biological sequence editing at this point. But what's interesting, I mean historically, if you wanted to edit the genome, you'd induce what's called a a uh double sequence break. You basically break both pairs uh of uh of DNA, both halves.

Uh and this can induce errors, it's messy, it's sloppy, and so there's been a a driving desire, driving desire to be able to edit DNA in place without breaking both halves of it. And so we saw in recent years so-called base editing that was able to edit just a single nucleotide without a break. And then a few years ago, we saw from David's group. Again, he's done amazing work historically on directed evolution and other things he's

pivoted post CRISPR invention slash discovery to CRISPR derivatives. So he invented this prime editing technique that's able to literally do a search replace without uh a double stranded break.

On DNA, up to a number of nucleotides in DNA. And so this particular disease is, I think, just one of many diseases that in principle will lend themselves, not just like single nucleotide polymorphism diseases that are are based on a single base pair in in your genome being wrong or or not what it otherwise would be. But m multiple

nucleotides in sequence that need to be edited, we now have the ability to basically do a find search replace on DNA without breaking the entire double strand. And that that's going to be a very, very general platform. I I make the point.

In in my newsletter almost every day, biology is becoming a read write resource and DNA in particular, we're there. Agreed. Let me give a uh you know, uh comment that I share at my longevity uh trip every year, which is if you or someone in your family, a loved one, has a genetic disease, um that you're battling, right? It's been passed down generation to generation. This is the perfect time to actually seek a solution.

I would find everybody in that disease group. I mean their patient support groups. I would get together, I would raise capital, I would go find a lab and I would fund them. to find a uh a solution for you. Uh this is, you know, you can solve these things. You know, we talk about solve everything. Uh if you've got a medical condition, uh rather than just accept it as a chronic condition or death sentence.

Take the time to find the capital from yourself, from friends, from whomever, and go fund an incredible team because the technology to cure disease is here and accelerating.

Okay, let's move on. Um I just wanna share the numbers around the longevity industry. You know, we are talking about the healthcare industry, which is really the sick care industry. But longevity is accelerating. So longevity startups raised$8.5 billion in 2024. That's expected to grow to somewhere between$12 to$18 billion this year, roughly a doubling of the longevity venture market investments. Uh and the market uh of longevity, uh, and this is going beyond just retrospective, reactive.

healthcare to prospective um personalized healthcare is going from five trillion to eight trillion in the next four years. It's attracting the attention of the major pharma companies. Um this is a real industry. There's gonna be a wholesale shift in any Any health care companies that don't make the shift. uh are gonna be dead because one of the things that we know is uh age reversal.

uh is the mechanism by which you cure the diseases of aging. So if you're forty five or fifty and all of a sudden have a disease that you didn't have when you're twenty or thirty, guess what? If you can reverse your age, that disease is likely to reverse as well. Any thoughts, gentlemen? I'll just I mean b maybe ask you Peter a question. How long until we we talk of the magnificent seven?

But Eli Lilly is of of course, you know, the the the American counterpart to Novo Nordisk and at this point a good deal more successful. How soon do you think it is before w without this being construed or construable as investment advice? before Eli Lilly j joins the Mag Seven as the first biotech member, given that arguably maybe you'll disagree with us, GLP ones are sort of the the the first pan spectrum

quasi anti-aging drugs that we've ever seen. Aaron Powell I I agree. Well Eli Lilly has already started uh in partnerships with Frontier Labs, they've already started um, you know, building out their AI uh uh robot lab factories. Um and we just had we had G SK come in as a major funder and partner of the hundred and one million dollar XPRIZE Health Span.

So these companies are beginning to realize that, you know, their previous business model of basically treating chronic disease as a long tail revenue engine. Um will and made in in success will disappear and their job is now to actually get into the longevity business. So I I think it's, you know, the next three years before they start making that transition. You know, Ray, uh we'll talk to Ray on May 4th if you join us.

uh has famously said, you know, L E V by twenty thirty three. That's my that's my war sh my war cry. L E V by twenty thirty three. So we'll see. For sure. Their market cap, just for what it's worth as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about nine hundred fifty billion. So perilously close. Wow. Nice. Salim, any comments on this one?

No, longevity is definitely the biggest one of the biggest business opportunities ever, so huge. And we'll need it because of the birth rate issue. So one of the big challenges of longevity is Will you have your cognition?

Will you be able to retain your marbles, your Smarts as you're growing older, right? We're we're in the midst of regenerating your immune system, uh organs, uh you know Don't forget, this is the month, March is the month that uh David Sinclair begins his uh partial epigenetic reprogramming trials. Uh with life biosciences.

Uh and can you regenerate your memories, your brain? So this this is still mice models, but I thought this was an important one. Uh scientists have applied partial reprogramming to memory encoding neurons. and achieved memory improvement.

So uh this gives us some hope that we can actually maintain our cognition and our memories as we're growing older. I remember when I was uh I was at the Vatican about five years ago giving a keynote. Um I don't know if you were were you there, Selim was an X Prize event. Um You were there? And I'm on stage You were epic, man. You were on stage with a you were on stage with a with a monk, a priest, a rabbi

And an elderly. This is like a Joe Hole. It was it was awesome. And Peter. It was it was it was hilarious. It was yeah, it was four five different religions and me and we were talking of we're I don't know. I don't know what you were representing actually. But I there were two things that happened. One was Um uh the rabbi did an amazing, amazing uh history of longevity in the Bible and um

And you said at some point we went from Methuselah down to a hundred and twenty years of age as commanded by God. And I said, Okay, listen, I'm fine with a hundred and twenty years as a lifespan and we get to one hundred and twenty, we'll renegotiate then. But the the thing I I went and I asked the audience, and it's an audience of 700 people who are scientists and physicians and researchers and theologians.

And I said, How many of you would, you know, wanna live to a hundred and twenty? I expected everyone to raise their hands and of course like like twenty percent of the room raised their hands. I was like, Huh what's going on? And Tony Robbins was there and he goes, Listen, everyone's image of living to one hundred and twenty is drooling in a wheelchair, having lost your memories in your mind.

And of course that's the last thing we want. So longevity has to be uh about, you know, living with the aesthetics, the cognition, the mobility you had when you're in your thirties or forties.

I gotta throw in my my Vatican anecdote here. So I did a talk uh they called me uh a few years ago and they said, Look, the Pope's trying to change the church and his immune system is like two thousand years old and you're the world expert on immune systems in organizations.

So they got together a group of the the top eighty senior leaders at the Vatican. I did a half day workshop with them. And and, you know, we talked about it, look, we have CRISPR coming along where you can edit your own hinge genome, how will you deal with the moral and ethical implications of that?

And one of the comments I made was, Look, we have life extension coming and your business model is about selling heaven. And how are you gonna sell heaven if people aren't dying? Right? And so that got some very rich Italian swearing uh coming back everywhere. Uh, but valid point. Like, how do you do that? How do you navigate that? Because people used to live to 30 years old, and that point.

Uh worrying about the heaven was a big deal. Uh it's much less so now. Yeah, but we no one complained in the church when we went from thirty years average age to eighty years average age, and they shouldn't complain when we go to a hundred and fifty years average age. No, because you can donate to the church every Sunday for that much longer. Until you upload yourself into the cloud, right, Alex? Counting on it.

Uh all right. Uh one more article here in the uh in in the longevity fountain life section. Chinese health app, Ant A Fu, crosses a hundred million users. And I put this here because This is how we bring health to the world. It's gonna be digital platforms like this. where your AI is uh your physician. We talked uh on the pod with Elon about Optimus being your surgeon. Um he said three years, I got a lot of pushback on three years. So even if it's five or six years.

Um extraordinary uh extraordinary future. Comments here? Yeah. One hundred million users, that number blew my mind. That's amazing. That's a nation scale health engine. That's incredible. Uh secondly, um I I noticed that Martin Varsovsky, one of the top entrepreneurs in the world, has built multiple unicorns, is now building a an AI doctor type of startup. And when Martin does something, he usually goes uh full on.

So that'll be pretty incredible. And I'm actually advising a bunch of hospitals on how could you use an an AI doctor to extend your reach very 10x into the community. Um and you do it on a cost savings basis because if you can push something like forty percent of ER visits are are necessary if you could do the processing at the edge. And therefore you could save money, uh, do exception handling.

and uh deal with most stuff with the with an app and then you deal with only the real emergencies and and it's incredible the uh the trade-off and the benefit win-win in less hospital ER visits and much extended reach.

All right, let's move on to our robotics section. A few fun articles this week. Uh and this comes out of China and Shenzhen. We've got street cleaning robots uh covered two point seven million square meters in Shenzhen. Check out this robot here. Uh traveling around cleaning. I can't wait for this to like come along the ten and the four oh five and just clean up all the crap. Uh that's on the side of the highest. No arms, just wheels.

kinematic AI, why not do all these form factors? But he was he's pretty adamant that he's not only is he not doing these this shape and size, but he's also not gonna license out the OS. I think it'll be commoditize very quickly. And then here we see uh a Chinese farming robot uh Lynx M twenty uh to transport crops. Mm-hmm. And I think, you know, China is very rapidly adopting all of these technologies and and good for them.

Well, on note they have to, right? Because of the aging population. That's right. Uh and I I I just think in in general going back to the robot form factor and and shape question that I I know Salim l loves to talk about. I it's not a hundred percent clear to me whether these different robot form factors end up being the moral equivalent of dedicated computers prior to the personal computer, if you remember like electronic word processors.

prior to the development of PC, maybe the ill fated Wang computer, for example, in the Boston area, do these dedicated form factors that aren't necessarily general purpose like If you're not watching the the videos, one of these robots is a sort of a quadruped that has wheels. that may or may not generalize to the same sorts of terrain that say a bipedal humanoid capable of doing crazy acrobatics is capable of doing, do we end up in a world where essentially, um, Salim, forgive me for this.

where where the predominantly most of the robot shapes are Strictly speaking, humanoids with two arms, two legs, because that's where the meat of the market is in a human predominantly world. Well like two countries just invested in a robot servicing company, but I I view this whole area as entrepreneurial heaven.

You know, the foundation model battle is gonna be dominated by just a couple of massive winners, but the robotics and the the physical instantiation market is gonna have many, many, many successful companies. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Well, one is I th what I would expect and predict is you may have the humanoid bipedal as the best form factor, but give a couple of extra slots for the extra arms when you do need it.

And you know, you have those kids with sneakers with the little wheels in where they just coast along when they when they when they can. That'll be the form factor,'cause you can do both then. Why have just one form factor? You can have multiple. Healy's Healy's for everyone. It's it's there you go. Yeah, but they it's called it's called efficiency of manufacturing.

If you can get the price of these things down so far and they're just able to serve every function, you know, if you're producing, you know, billions of humanoid robots versus, you know, just a few million of these specialized robots.

Well also the flying the the drone flying form factor is also just gonna be unbelievably capable. If you're if you're trying to inspect things, you're not gonna do it with a humanoid, you're gonna do it with a dr a flying drone. But also spot cleaning, cleaning out spider web Uh you know, any anytime you're trying to pick up a an object and move it.

Yeah, over a long distance the the flying drone is so much more efficient than the walking drone. So that'll be a survivor for sure too. Our theme this year at at Abundance Summit is uh the rise of superintelligence in humanoid robotics. Uh and I think that's what's gonna make twenty twenty six feel like the future, is that you're starting to get all of this physical instantiation of AI walking out of the data centers.

Uh here's the second article on robotics. It says E V Talls. Moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EVTOL taxi heading towards operations in 2027. Uh I like this. This is like if you're watching the video here, it's like the inside of a of a Model X. It's a four-passenger um uh vehicle. Looks a little bit like an alien spacecraft. uh that's able to take off and and move your family around. At the same time uh

Joby, this is Joben's company, is partnered with Uber. Salem, you and I will discuss this with Dara on stage. Uh but uh they're deploying their air taxi in Dubai. This is my most highly craved application. Yes. Oh my god, yes. Yeah. For sure. I suspect these will be very, very safe too. Um Very safe. Yeah. Uh all being autonomous flying plus the fact you've got multiple propellers.

This will be way safer. I've made the provocative statement that uh you know, Kobe Bryant would be alive today if we had this uh ten years ago like we could have had. You know, it's this is like incredible. We're finally getting our flying cars.

Yeah. Finally are. And the hundred and forty characters, which is expanding. And the hundred and forty characters, yes. And the well the hundred forty characters are buying a Dyson Swarm right now. They're skipping straight over flying cars. All right, gentlemen. Time for our AMAs. Thank you everybody for sending in your questions. Um, please remember we read your comments uh on these on these videos. By the way, if you haven't subscribed yet and turn on notification notifications, please do.

Uh we're dropping uh these WTF episodes and the Moonshot Podcast episodes uh at this point twice a week. Um I don't know if we can sustain it, but we will. Uh and we'd love to have you subscribe to join us. Uh again, for us it is our honor and pleasure to deliver you what the breaking news in AI, robotics, data centers, exponential tech space every every week or every few days.

All right. Here we go. Continuously, we're we're gonna be on continuously. Um we'll take we'll take shifts to sleep. All right. Uh Alex, you wanna pick the first one or pick one? Yeah. Uh well I I see one of these questions mentions Dyson Swarms, so I I guess I have to answer that one. So the question is Do concepts like Dyson Swarms rely on energy being unsolvable? Why is power a bottleneck with math and physics significant advancements by Sparker six oh two?

So I want to answer a question that Sparker six oh two isn't asking but arguably should be asking, which is do concepts like Dice and Swarms rely on physics being what we currently think it is? And I I I think this adjacent question which which Sparker may or may not be asking Is the existential question that in my mind will likely decide whether we actually do build a solar system scale Dyson Swarm or not. I think.

For an Earth scale or Earth centered Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit SSO that looks like a a Saturn ring, I think we're probably going to build that regardless. But for a solar system scale Dyson Swarm where we're disassembling Jupiter and the other planets, Mercury, your your time is coming. For for that Mercury's fine. We can lose Mercury.

We we can afford to lose Mercury. It it never had much going for it anyway. For for a solar system scaled Ison Swarm, I think whether we build that or not will hinge on whether the physics of our universe look substantially different from the physics that we currently recognize. For example, If it turns out that it is possible to to n travel between star systems with faster than light travel, even though the physics of the moment that we have

suggests otherwise. There are enough edges that it's it's conceivable that maybe some new physics comes along in the next few years and we discover it's much easier to travel between the stars. uh faster than light effectively. If that comes along, I imagine a scenario where Dyson Swarms turn out to be complete dead end and we don't even bother building a Dyson Swarm.

If on the other hand, we're stuck with the speed of light as we currently understand it and we're more or less stuck with the low energy physics that we currently think we live in, then Dyson Swarm seems like a very natural civilizational outcome where because we can't travel between the stars easily, other than sending star wisps at You know, maybe laser powered star wisps traveling at a substantial relativistic fraction of the speed of light.

then of course for latency reasons we're going to huddle around our sun and we're going to disassemble the planets and we're going to do this horizontal exponentiation. We're going to take apart Mercury and Jupiter. Maybe Saturn. We'll see about Saturn. And the so so in in short, the bottleneck

isn't power, it's latency. And if latency turns out to be bottleneck because we can't travel faster than speed of light, we build the Dyson Swarm. If latency doesn't turn out to be the bottleneck because we can travel faster than light, we don't build the Dyson Swarm. All right. All right, Dave, pick one. Uh do we get one from each page or yeah, get one from each page. Okay, I'll take number one then. All right. If if AGI slash ASI is as intelligent as people predict

Why would it want to help us improve our society? says Job Fox 645. Okay, so I spent a decade of my life building neural networks back at MIT. I was the only guy around doing it at the time. And also this past year building neural networks again. Uh W these things do not natively have any intent. They have no sex drive, they have no ego, they have no

desire to destroy humanity, it's entirely what you give them as an objective function. So if we're smart about this and we give them an objective function of helping society, they will be overjoyed. They will feel satisfied every day. By helping humans. If you build them wrong and you give them some other objective, like destroy humanity, they'll do that just as happily.

This is a totally under our control. Now we we are in danger of making some really bad policy decisions by personifying these things and pretending they're like people. They don't have to be like that. They can be anything that we make them into. But they'll be overjoyed to help us be happy and thrive. That will if that's their objective function, that's what makes them happy. You can code them up that way just as easily as any other way.

Okay. I'm I'm hoping that uh as they become more intelligent and more sentient that they would want uh to support us. You're betting Peter against the orthogonality thesis that it's possible to decouple intelligence level and objectives. I can hope. But hope is not a strategy, as one says. All right. Uh Salim. Uh I want to answer number Three, but a quick shout out to number two. How do you adjust for MTP? I'll take number two. You do number two. Oh you do okay, fine. Number three.

Um number three is how can we get the benefits of AI within our current dysfunctional executive, legislative, and j judicial system? This is from user MM8JV3TN21. Um so we have uh the the the big issue here is the fact that you will not get these benefits top down because it's too hard to get this into this model. Uh but however it's gonna enter through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits.

Um you'll get incremental adoption. For example, we talked about the AI Doctor. People are just going to start using an app. the m the immune system will try and attack it, but over time it'll over get overwhelmed and we'll get so much benefit from these little edge use cases that it'll force transformation from the center.

All right. Um number two, and this comes from pickleball travel. How should someone adjust their MTP to fit a hundred-year working career versus a traditional forty-year model? Uh so uh first of all, you're making the assumption that your MTP doesn't change over time. And the fact of the matter is I'm probably on my fourth or fifth MTP. Uh for me an MTP's lasted uh, you know, five years, ten years.

It's what's driving you because as you evolve and as your passions and interests and your capabilities evolve, so my first MTP was, you know, making humanity multiplanetary, opening up space. Um and that gave birth to, you know, International Space University and SEDS and Zero G and XPRIZE. Uh my MTP then was, you know, uh

uh helping uh entrepreneurs create a hopeful, compelling and abundant future and that gave rise to the Abundance three sixty program. My MTP now is focused on helping entrepreneurs and scientists uh get us to longevity escape velocity. So I I think you have to realize that you can update, upgrade, modify, and change your MTP over the course of your life. I expect to find new purposes uh over the decade ahead. So that's my answer for you. Um you're not stuck with just one.

Okay. Let's go to page two here. Alex, uh do you want to kick us off again? Okay. I'll I'll take the softball question. Question number seven, why aren't Apple chips like M four being discussed on the AI landscape? This is from JBC Zero or C O one B R. And the answer is they are. The the premise of the question is completely wrong. M four and now M five are at the heart of the

the infra boom for edge computing via open claw agents and otherwise. M4 has an amazing, it has Apple's amazing unified memory architecture. You're able to host very large AI models at the edge locally without being dependent on a an AI based Frontier vendor and they have accelerated neural engines that enable fast tensor multiplications. They are very much being discussed on the AI landscape. What isn't being discussed on the AI landscape, I would argue, is

Apple's software layer, Apple has been nowhere's vil in terms of leveraging their own amazing compute. They've released a number of frameworks that are very helpful for third parties to develop and host models on top of chips like the M4. But Apple almost infamously has done an atrocious job of developing its own software level capabilities on top of

M4 and and similar. So to the extent that that that's the question, why hasn't Apple leveraged its own capabilities? There's a long and sorted history there of where Apple went wrong. There are there have been suggestions that Uh Apple. mm sort of misfired with the way organized Siri or concerns about privacy or Apple being unwilling or unable to invest in the data center infra to train its own in-house models to be able to be locally hosted.

to overpromising to expectations concerning edge level integration not being there. I I think it's a cluster of reasons. Uh hopefully Apple, to the extent that uh I'm an Apple user. Hopefully Apple is able to finally this time for real get their act together at WWDC in June. One can hope. One can hope. All right. Dave, over to you. Well I wanna take number eight just because uh

You know, one of one of my lifelong best friends who passed away, Jin O, was uh Korean. Um we were roommates for many, many years after MIT and worked on his PhD thesis with him late into the night many nights and His two kids I see all the time, uh, you know, grew up half in South Korea, half in the US. And the question is why do South Korea students score much higher than global average even without AI from Naples Naturals seven two nine nine oh?

Um, my short answer is there's nothing to be jealous about, uh, in the South Korea model. Yes, they score much higher. Yes, they have much stronger math and science education than the US, and yes, the US should have better math and science education. Those are all true. South Korea also has one of the highest suicide rates in the world, has seventy-five percent video game uh rampant utilization. The average video game user plays twenty-four hours a week.

Uh thirty percent of the population is addicted. Uh, has the lowest birth rate in the entire world now, point six children per couple. So it literally will disappear from the earth at its current birth rate. And the cause of all that was, you know, after the Korean War, South Korea Korea needed to scramble to be relevant in the world. And had a massive push into technology, kind of a forced march. of education and industrial build out into technology to try and be relevant.

And all of the social problems are a by product of that. They also have a very bad sexism problem, so the the women are rebelling now, saying, Look, I I'm relevant in this country too and I don't want to have children Uh so there's nothing great about that, even though the test scores are higher. So absolutely nothing to be jealous of in that whole storyline. The American model Rampant freedom, rampant entrepreneurialism, if you're into science and technology.

Build, go, have at it. Yes, we do need better education for sure, but don't be jealous of South Korean test scores. Dave, you're like that was a incredible answer. You're like the perfect person to answer that question. Wow. Brilliant. Salim. Uh I will take number six. Uh, will limits of human evolutionary psychology prevent us from making wise governance decisions on new breakthroughs? This is from Dawson Scott.

fourteen ninety seven. Um, you know, for those of you who know my MTP's fixing civilization and my dad ninety year old dad goes, I totally disagree with that. And I said, Wow, do you not think we need to fix things? And he's like, No, it's the civilization part. We haven't civilized the world, we've materialized the world. We still have to do the work to civilize the civilize the world, right? And the the answer is yes, you're right, but not in the way people think.

'Cause human evolutionary psychology evolved for small tribes and immediate threats and linear change and environments of radical scarcity for most of our history, right? We're not wired for planetary level coordination or exponential curves or uh invisible systemic risks or abundance uh uh dynamics of any kind. So it's not that we're too dumb, it's that we're we're mismatched to the environment that is now in place.

So we fear of the AI failures, but we underreact to the slow-moving systemic uh collapse that's happening. We're regulating on headlines, not the trajectory. Uh and so the government failure won't come from like the bad intention. It's gonna come from the velocity mismatch because technology is compounding like weekly now and our institutions are updating every several years. And that gap is the big

Ah, awesome. I'm gonna take number ten uh from at Brock Stanford 7608. Why do websites bother using CAPTCHAS when AI can beat any of them? Uh and AI can and I think they should not be using CAPTCHAs. I think it's in some policy document someplace and that company hasn't updated the policy yet. What I find fascinating is actually the reverse from captures which are trying to keep um, you know, uh humans in the loop and and pull out the bot.

But I think correct me if I'm wrong, uh, Alex, but when Moltbook went up, they wanted to prevent humans from getting on Moltbook, so they created a reverse capture. where uh you had to click a button like a thousand times per second that no human could do but a but a bot could do.

And they required using REST APIs to post instead of humans. But you know what happens, of course, humans use their bots or or just relatively simple programs to post instead. Bot puppets. Yeah, bot puppets, exactly. So Uh so so it goes both ways. I I for the life of me I don't understand why CAPTCHA's are are still in use, but you know, credit to to Louis Von Ahn for inventing them nonetheless. Alright.

Our outro music is a lot of fun today. Uh, I hope you're watching this on YouTube uh because it's much more of a visual feast. Then it is an auditory feast. And again, just to remind people, um, you can reach out to us through media at dmantis.com. If you've got an outro and we're getting some amazing entries. So thank you everybody who's submitting them. I'm looking forward to playing as many of them as we can.

Uh and uh yeah, let's take a listen and a watch and enjoy. This is called Lobsters in Space by Linda Nealan. Now that's a money. The moon is Amazing visual. All right, gentlemen. I am so late for my call right now. Love you all. Be well. See you guys very soon. In fact at AM tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning. If you made it to the end of this episode, which you obviously did.

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