The specter of stagflation is on the rise. While the higher tariffs have yet to translate into higher prices, the Inside Economics team and their colleague, inflation-maven Matt Colyar, argue they soon will. And weaker growth isn’t too far behind – the team’s recession probabilities are increasing again. Mass immigrant deportations, and Israel’s bombing of Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices, also point to higher inflation and weaker growth. Just how serious a threat stagflation poses dep...
Jun 13, 2025•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 220
Sharon Parrott, President of CBPP joins the Inside Economics team to consider the big package of tax and government spending provisions making its way through the legislative process. She explains why she’s not a fan, from its implications for the nation’s already dire fiscal situation to its hit to programs benefitting lower-income Americans, such as Medicaid and food assistance. Guests: Sharon Parrot - President of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Justin Begley - Economist and U....
Jun 10, 2025•58 min
Dante joins Mark and Marisa for a rare Cris-free Saturday morning podcast to discuss the May jobs report. Given the report's weakness, the team is equally baffled by the positive news headlines and surging stock market on Friday. The team dissects the large downward revisions to the payroll numbers in recent months and whether this signals a recession ahead. They also debate whether the low unemployment rate is giving a false signal about underlying weakness in the labor market. Guest: Dante DeA...
Jun 07, 2025•51 min•Ep. 219
The Inside Economics crew talks about the latest tariff news, as well as the reconciliation bill making its way through Congress and the long-term macroeconomic consequences of the bill. Mark gives some rules of thumb about the tariff impact on inflation, as well as the debt-to-GDP ratio and long-term bond yields. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and plays the stats game. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s An...
May 30, 2025•59 min•Ep. 218
Cliff Rossi, Professor of the Practice and Director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland, joins the podcast to discuss the future of housing finance and the potential release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government conservatorship. The team also delves into Dr. Rossi's proposal for fixing the homeowners insurance market and explores concerns surrounding private credit. Guest: Clifford Rossi, Professor of the Practice, Director, Smith Enterprise Risk Consort...
May 28, 2025•51 min
The Inside Economics team is joined by our colleagues Adam Kamins and Justin Begley to play the statistics game for nearly the entire podcast. There are lots of good stats, and it’s a nice respite from all the economic drama for the long Memorial Day weekend. Guests: Justin Begley - Economist, Moody's Analytics, Adam Kamins - Senior Director and Head of Regional Economics, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Ana...
May 23, 2025•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 217
The Inside Economics team welcomes back Aaron Klein, senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, for his fourth appearance. The episode begins with an analysis of the latest economic indicators, unpacking fresh CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. Mark then asks the team to weigh in on how recent tariff announcements have altered their economic forecasts and recession probabilities. Moody's Analytics economist Justin Begley provides a breakdown of the budget reconciliation packag...
May 16, 2025•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 216
Will generative artificial intelligence lead to nirvana or dystopia? Great question, which we don’t exactly answer in this week’s podcast, but we do weigh the most critical downstream effects of the technology based on recent research done by urban economists Frank Levy and Scott Abrahams. We assess how GenAI impacts the benefits of a college degree, the nation’s political dynamics, and which metro area economies will win (think Savannah) and lose (think San Francisco). Guests: Frank Levy, Visit...
May 09, 2025•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 215
Moody’s Analytics colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to recap the April jobs report, along with the potpourri of other economic data released this week. Marisa dives into other labor market data, Cris tackles GDP, and Mark discusses consumer confidence. All along the way, Mark points out the thorns in recent data. The team also provides an update on their recession probabilities. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analy...
May 02, 2025•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 214
Richard Barkham, Senior Economic Advisor at CBRE, joins the podcast to discuss the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy. Richard is decidedly more sanguine than the podcast hosts. Mark, Cris and Marisa also discuss the economic team’s recent win for Most Accurate U.S. Forecast for 2023-2024 by Consensus Economics. They debate how much of the win can be chalked up to skill, luck, or the Chief Economist. Guest: Richard Barkham – Senior Economic Advisor, CBRE Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief...
Apr 25, 2025•57 min•Ep. 213
This episode marks our four-year anniversary doing the Inside Economic podcast, and we devote the conversation to responding to listener questions. We’ve been getting lots of great Qs, ranging from the global trade war and DOGE cuts to immigration and productivity growth. Keep the questions coming. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Foll...
Apr 18, 2025•1 hr 9 min•Ep. 212
The Inside Economics team is joined by the former chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, Jared Bernstein. Jared shares his evaluation of what has been a whirlwind few weeks for the global economy. With a healthy dose of humility, the group then debates where things might be headed in the U.S.-China trade war as well as which country they see as possessing more leverage. The group is also joined by Martin Wurm and Matt Colyar to discuss recent financial market volatility and the...
Apr 11, 2025•1 hr 14 min•Ep. 211
Breitbart’s Economic and Finance Editor, John Carney, and the Urban Institute’s Jim Parrott return to Inside Economics to discuss the motivations and endgame of President Trump’s global trade war, tax and spending policy, and what will happen with Fannie and Freddie. The upshot of the conversation: the trade war isn’t going to end soon, and a recession is dead-ahead. Guests: John Carney, Finance and Economics Editor at Breitbart & Jim Parrott, Nonresident Fellow at the Urban Institute Hosts:...
Apr 09, 2025•1 hr 16 min
The Moody's Analytics team discusses President Trump's trade war. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informe...
Apr 04, 2025•1 hr 11 min•Ep. 210
Mark, Marisa, and Cris break down this week's flood of economic data and explain how new auto tariffs will affect consumers and the overall economy. Their conversation addresses important concerns about the quality and availability of government statistics as they consider private-sector alternatives. They wrap up the episode with the ever-popular "statistics game" highlighting key economic indicators and with responses to listener questions. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytic...
Mar 28, 2025•1 hr 14 min•Ep. 209
Investing in these especially turbulent times is intrepid. No better person to navigate the ups and downs in global stock, bond, crypto and other asset markets than UBS’s CIO, Mark Haefele. Mark discusses his new book, in which he considers the broad global trends – the 5 Ds – investors should embrace. And he offers a few investment nuggets along the way. For Mark Haefele's book, The New Rules of Investing, click here Guest: Mark Haefele – Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management H...
Mar 21, 2025•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 208
Firas Saleh, director of product management at Moody's, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the increasing risk of wildfires and floods. He highlights the growing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and the significant economic losses they cause. The conversation then shifts to the insurance industry, focusing on how rising insurance premiums affect individual property owners and real estate markets. Although markets will adapt to these evolving risks, the transition may be chall...
Mar 18, 2025•1 hr 3 min
The Inside Economics crew is joined by Matt Colyar to discuss February’s CPI report and a rapidly changing U.S. economic environment. Primarily, the conversation focuses on tariffs and the on-again, off-again chaos coming out of D.C. The group also discusses investors and U.S. trade partners’ increasingly evident fatigue and whether orthodox macroeconomic principals will eventually re-emerge as a guidepost for policymaking. Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics Hosts: Mark Z...
Mar 14, 2025•31 min•Ep. 207
Moody’s Analytics colleague, Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to discuss the February jobs report, and the team shares their angst about potential cracks in the labor market. The conversation then turns to the potential impact of DOGE cuts to the federal workforce and the economic implications of the on-again, off-again tariffs that has developed in recent weeks. Finally, Dante celebrates his clean sweep in the stats game and Mark and Cris revise their recession probabilities. Guest: Dante DeAn...
Mar 07, 2025•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 206
Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at the Economic Innovation Group, joins the podcast to discuss his latest proposal to reform and replace the high-skilled immigration program in the U.S. (better known as H-1B). In addition to immigration policy, the group discusses remote work, the softening of recent economic data, and the prospects for the year ahead. Finally, the group goes around the horn with its recession probability for the next 12 months. Guest: Adam Ozimek – Chief Economist of the Economic ...
Feb 28, 2025•1 hr 19 min•Ep. 205
Inside Economics was fortunate to have Trump whisperer John Carney of Breitbart News join the podcast to provide his insight on the Trump administration’s efforts to rework government and reshape economic policy. Urban Institute scholar Jim Parrott helped guide the conversation. Listeners will get a wildly different perspective from that provided by Robert Reich of UC Berkeley on the podcast last week. Hopefully, these back-to-back podcasts on Trump’s policies help put things into clearer relief...
Feb 27, 2025•1 hr 5 min
Robert Reich, UC Berkley professor and former Labor Secretary under President Clinton, joins the Inside Economics podcast to take a retrospective look at economic policies extending back to Clinton that ultimately contributed to President Trump’s election, and a prospective look at where the president is taking policy and what it means for democracy and the economy. His advice: batten down the hatches and buckle up Guest: Robert Reich, Professor at UC Berkley and former U.S. Secretary of Labor T...
Feb 21, 2025•57 min•Ep. 204
After congratulating the Philadelphia Eagles on their dominant Super Bowl win, the Inside Economics team breaks down the week’s inflation data. Moody’s Analytics colleague Matt Colyar joins to help unpack the details behind January’s hotter-than-hoped-for CPI and then the group discusses whether their outlooks for 2025 have changed. Predictably, this evolves into a discussion about tariffs. Finally, they play the numbers game. Objectively, Marisa’s number was best. Click here to take the most re...
Feb 14, 2025•57 min•Ep. 203
Dante joins the podcast to break down the January employment report and provide his odds for an Eagles Super Bowl victory. The job market is starting 2025 in a great place, and the team discusses the implications of significant revisions to labor market data. Finally, the conversation turns to tariff policy as everyone weighs in on which tariffs, if any, are likely to stick around and the resulting impact on the economic outlook. Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Mood...
Feb 07, 2025•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 202
After a brief rundown of the week's solid economic data, the Inside Economics team is joined by Moody’s Analytics colleague Martin Wurm to discuss the Fed’s recent pause and the path of monetary policy for the rest of the year. Martin breaks down how we should think about the equilibrium long-term interest rate and, in turn, the fed funds rate. The team also discusses the possible scenarios for the Fed this year, given the uncertainty around tariff and immigration policy. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chi...
Jan 31, 2025•1 hr•Ep. 201
Inside Economics welcomes Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, back on the podcast to celebrate the 200th episode and talk about the state of the American consumer. Wayne discusses Visa’s Spending Momentum Index for the U.S. and other parts of the globe and what it means for low, high, and middle-income households. The conversation ends with a discussion of the Trump administration’s policy proposals and the implications for inflation and growth. Guest: Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa Hosts:...
Jan 24, 2025•1 hr 9 min•Ep. 200
No, we aren’t referring to President Trump’s inauguration. But we do chat about the implications of President Trump’s economic policies for Europe with Cosimo Pacciani, Head of Research for Poste Italiane and Moody’s Analytics own Gaurav Ganguly, chief EMEA economist. Inflation and interest rates were also top of mind. If, after listening to the podcast, you know what we are referring to, let us know. The first person who gets back to us with the correct answer will win a cowbell. Guests: Cosimo...
Jan 17, 2025•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 199
The Inside Economics team is pleased to welcome Glenn Hubbard, Nonresident Senior Fellow at AEI and former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, to the podcast. Dante kicks things off with a summary of this week's "surprising" employment report. Glenn offers his opinions on the Trump administration's policy proposals and their potential effects on the economy. The group successfully navigates the statistics game through hints and joint effort. Click here for the NYT article r...
Jan 10, 2025•56 min•Ep. 198
On the first podcast of 2025, the Inside Economics crew discusses the outlook for the year ahead and delves into the Risk Matrix, a visual depiction of the major risks facing the global economy. Mark, Cris and Marisa each pick a risk to highlight and then give their wildest predictions for 2025, some of which are not very serious. To view the Risk Matrix, click here (https://www.economy.com/content/podcast/US_Risk_Matrix.svg) Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis –...
Jan 03, 2025•1 hr 15 min•Ep. 197
In the last Inside Economics podcast of the year, the team is joined by our colleague Justin Begley to discuss the incoming Trump administration’s seeming view that smaller government means stronger economic growth. Will the new government agency DOGE, a more relaxed anti-trust policy, and lighter regulation successfully lift the economy’s prospects? A potentially politically charged question the team works to tackle analytically. How did we do? And Happy New Year! Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Econ...
Dec 30, 2024•1 hr 28 min•Ep. 196
