Three economists. Three opinions. The Inside Economics team worked through a panoply of fresh releases, covering GDP, spending, income, new-home sales, durable goods orders, and inflation, to piece together the true state of the economy. Three tricky statistics tested the team in the stats game before a three-part listener question closed things out. Stay tuned for Cris' paper mentioned in the episode here Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to he...
May 29, 2026•1 hr 17 min•Ep. 277
After two failed attempts at recording the podcast due to technical issues, the team finally nails it on the third try. In a light data week, the team discusses the wide disparity in sentiment between consumers, stock investors, and business leaders. The team discusses Mark’s recent meetings with Brazilian clients, Marisa’s trip to Silicon Valley, and Cris’s meeting with banking clients and their takeaways about the moods among those audiences. The podcast concludes with a set of thought-provoki...
May 22, 2026•50 min•Ep. 276
If you want to get the skinny on anything related to financial markets or the financial system, then you need to talk with Samim Ghamami, Chief Economist of the New York state Insurance Fund. That’s what Mark and Cris do on this podcast. The conversation begins with the outlook for interest rates, turns to a perspective on a popular AI narrative that artificial intelligence will push rates up further by spurring investment and reducing household savings, and closes with a timely look at private ...
May 19, 2026•50 min•Ep. 275
On this momentous day at the Federal Reserve, with Jay Powell handing over the chair to Kevin Warsh, the Inside Economics team, along with guest Julia Coronado, Founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, and colleague Martin Wurm, consider all things related to the venerable institution. There’s, of course, the issue of Fed independence, and beyond that, what changes the new Fed chair may champion. And soaring stock prices and bond yields, and what they mean for the economy, couldn’t help but be topic...
May 15, 2026•56 min•Ep. 274
In a quick-hitting mini-podcast, Mark and Cris are joined by colleague Matt Colyar to discuss April’s (hot) consumer price index data. U.S. inflation has accelerated dramatically since the war in Iran began. Matt breaks down April’s report and opines about where inflation is likely headed from here. Amid affordability concerns and an approaching election, the crew then evaluates recent proposals put forward by policymakers to alleviate some of the burden on U.S. consumers. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Ch...
May 12, 2026•40 min•Ep. 273
The Inside Economics crew dives into the April employment report. Despite better-than-expected headline job growth, they debate the best way to characterize the current state of the labor market. The team agrees that despite a still-low unemployment rate, there are reasons to be concerned. The stats game proves particularly difficult, but delivers key insights about the labor market, and also provides some key figures to watch moving forward. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEcono...
May 08, 2026•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 272
Peter McCrory, the Head of Economics at AI juggernaut Anthropic, joins the Inside Economics team to consider all things AI and the economy. The discussion begins with how the group is using Claude in our work, then shifts to AI’s current and expected lift to productivity, and to the underappreciated economic ramifications of AI. It turns out that Lancaster PA, is turning out some great economists. Guest: Peter McCrory, Head of Economics at Anthropic For more from Peter McCrory: https://peter-mcc...
May 01, 2026•1 hr 10 min•Ep. 271
Mark, Cris and Marisa recap the week’s economic news, including the now highly likely confirmation for the Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, the ongoing conflict in Iran and its impact on energy and related commodities, and the proposed bailout of Spirit Airlines. After the stats game, the team takes a few thought-provoking listener questions about tax policy and tariffs. Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – C...
Apr 24, 2026•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 270
Stock prices are hitting new records, while consumer sentiment has fallen to record lows. Businesses are of mixed minds. What’s driving this disconnect—and who’s right? Mark and Cris are joined once again by colleague Matt Colyar to break down the divergence between investors, consumers, and business leaders. Their insights reveal key dynamics shaping the economic outlook. Plus, the statistics game returns – back by overwhelming listener demand. To view the Wall Street Journal article mentioned ...
Apr 17, 2026•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 269
The Inside Economics team is joined by Matt Colyar to discuss the week’s loaded economic data slate. First, Matt offers a detailed reaction to March’s hot CPI report – the first inflation data capturing effects from the conflict in the Middle East. Next, the group discusses how each is thinking about their recession probabilities in light of the tenuous ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and the latest economic data. The group closes, of course, with the numbers game where Mark reveals that he ...
Apr 10, 2026•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 268
The Inside Economics crew (minus Dr. DeAntonio) parses the March jobs report, which came in surprisingly strong. They all agree that the headline number is deceptive and the labor market is actually quite weak and poised to weaken further in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East. Mark unveils his new take on the Sahm Rule indicator, which points to a surprising conclusion. The stats game is back (and not going anywhere), and the team takes several good listener questions. Email us at Insid...
Apr 03, 2026•1 hr 11 min•Ep. 267
Moody's commercial real estate experts Tom LaSalvia and Kevin Fagan join Mark, Marisa, and Cris to take stock of where CRE markets stand today. Tom and Kevin go beyond the headlines to unpack the nuances driving the office market's uneven recovery, multifamily's supply-driven growing pains, and retail's quiet comeback. Their verdict: measured confidence — provided the broader economy cooperates. As a bonus, Tom reveals the philosopher alter ego hiding inside each host. Spoiler alert: not everyon...
Mar 31, 2026•45 min•Ep. 266
Hostilities with Iran are entering their second month, and the damage to financial markets and the economy is mounting. The Inside Economics team and colleague, Shandor Whitcher, take up the question of what it all means for the prospects of recession. Shandor tells us about his prescient random forest model of the probability of recession starting in the next year, and it’s not encouraging. Odds are still less than half, but not by much, and the direction of travel is disconcerting. Guest: Shan...
Mar 27, 2026•33 min•Ep. 265
Mark, Cris and Marisa recap the week’s events in the Middle East and at the Fed and debate whether or not the baseline forecast warrants a rethink given the rising uncertainty around how and when the conflict in the Middle East will end. The crew discusses the tumultuous week in financial markets, the impact that prolonged high oil prices could have on the U.S. economy, and what this means for the risk of a recession over the next year. They answer several listener questions on a wide range of t...
Mar 20, 2026•57 min•Ep. 264
The Inside Economics team is joined by Scott Galloway, bestselling author and professor of marketing at NYU Stern, for a wide-ranging conversation spanning geopolitics, technology, and generational justice. The group touches on the escalating conflict in Iran before turning to the transformative — and disruptive — potential of artificial intelligence. The conversation takes a sharp turn as Scott examines what may be the defining economic story of our time: the systematic transfer of wealth and o...
Mar 19, 2026•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 263
Mark and Marisa are joined once again by colleagues Chris Lafakis and Juan Pablo Fuentes to discuss the past week’s developments in the Middle East and whether the forecast has changed as a result. Matt Colyar joins to review the week’s release of inflation data, which show stickiness in inflation prior to the $40 jump in oil prices since the start of the year. After a review of weak reports on GDP, spending and confidence, Chris and Juan Pablo discuss how the jump in oil prices and the unpreced...
Mar 13, 2026•50 min•Ep. 262
The Inside Economics team tackles the tough economic data and developments of the past week. There was nothing redeeming in the February jobs numbers, as the economy struggles to create jobs and unemployment edges higher. And this is before the fallout from the U.S. conflict with Iran hits the economy, which threatens to be considerable. The discussion ends on the question of how the fighting will be resolved, but there are no satisfying answers. Jenna Score: 7 Guests: Dante DeAntonio, Chris Laf...
Mar 06, 2026•1 hr 9 min•Ep. 261
Mark, Cris & Marisa reunite for a lively discussion about their predictions around AI’s impact on the economy over the next year or two. The team talks about their recently released webinar & white paper on the Macroeconomic Consequences of AI and answers several great listener questions in the process. Marisa and Cris try to talk Mark down off the AI-apocalypse ledge, as the once eternally optimistic Zandi has gone down a darker path recently. Jenna Score: 8.5/10 For a deeper dive on AI...
Feb 27, 2026•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 260
Former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein, and housing maven, Jim Parrott, join Mark and Cris to drink from today’s fire hose of events, including the SCOTUS decision striking down President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to the 4th quarter GDP numbers. The conversation turns to how well the economy is performing through the prism of AI, housing, and jobs. It’s a veritable econ nerdfest. Guest: Jared Bernstein, Former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers For more from...
Feb 20, 2026•56 min•Ep. 259
Together at last. In a rare joint performance, Dante and Matt join the Inside Economics crew to unpack January’s jobs and CPI reports. The brief federal government shutdown delayed economic data releases a few days, which made for a loaded slate this week. Dante shares his impression of January’s seemingly strong jobs report and then the team plays the stats game. A brief hiatus did not affect Marisa’s ability to dominate. Matt then goes through the first inflation data of 2026, and where it loo...
Feb 13, 2026•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 258
In the Oscar-winning film Shakespeare in Love, theater owner Henslowe explains that the theatrical business faces "insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster," yet somehow "it all turns out well.” It’s a mystery he can't explain. This week's podcast channels that spirit as Moody’s Analytics economist, Dante DeAntonio, joins Mark and Cris to dissect the labor market despite the delayed employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The team navigates volatility across finan...
Feb 06, 2026•57 min•Ep. 257
No, this isn’t a Bavarian dish. But our colleague Martin Wurm joins the Inside Economics team to consider Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve Board. The group dissects Warsh’s writings and speeches to glean how he might change the way the Fed operates monetary and regulatory policy, and whether he will be able to preserve some semblance of Fed independence. There is also the stats game and listener question – please keep them coming. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s ...
Feb 02, 2026•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 256
After a quick review of this past week's economic data, Professor Andrés Velasco, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics, joins the Inside Economics podcast, along with Head of International Economists, Gaurav Ganguly. The group dissects the U.S. push to acquire Greenland and Europe's response to it. They discuss President Trump's reaction to international dissent and conclude that TACO is a market-driven phenomenon. The discussion delves into income inequality wor...
Jan 23, 2026•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 255
The Inside Economics crew is joined by Logan Wright, partner and director of China market research at Rhodium Group. The team first unpacks December’s consumer price index and discusses the state of U.S. inflation. Then, Logan shares his expertise on the Chinese economy. From a slumping property sector, dubious economic data, and evolving trade flows, there was no shortage of topics to dive deep into. Guest: Logan Wright, Partner at Rhodium Group and Director of China Markets Research Hosts: Mar...
Jan 16, 2026•1 hr 19 min•Ep. 254
Jon Hilsenrath, former journalist at the Wall Street Journal, joins the Inside Economics crew to discuss the December jobs report and the Fed. The team breaks down the latest employment data and debates whether the report is “fine” or “anemic”. The focus then shifts to the Fed for a wide-ranging conversation about where interest rates are headed and whether Fed independence is in doubt. Jon argues that independence is already compromised and likely to get worse. Guests: Jon Hilsenrath and Dante ...
Jan 09, 2026•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 253
The team reunites in 2026 and reflects on the economy's performance in 2025 and looks ahead to the New Year. Mark reviews the forecast accuracy for the past year and is surprised by the results. Mark and Cris quibble over how to characterize the economy in 2025, and the team shares its predictions for 2026, along with the probabilities of the base cases, upside, and downside forecasts. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytic...
Jan 02, 2026•40 min•Ep. 252
Mark and Cris are joined by Natalie Gochnour, associate dean in the David Eccles School of Business and director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, and Moody’s Analytics’ head of regional economics Adam Kamins to learn some of the secrets behind one of the nation’s most successful states. From demographics to governance to the ski slopes, Natalie shares lessons learned from her decades working in and for Utah, including what to call residents of the Beehive State (...
Dec 23, 2025•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 251
Moody’s Analytics economist Matt Colyar weighs in on the government-shutdown flawed consumer price data for October and November, and teases his own CPI that will better represent what’s happening with inflation. Stay tuned. And Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Homebuilders, joins the conversation to provide his outlook on the housing market. Housing will have another tough year, but Rob finds some bright spots. Guest: Robert Dietz, Chief Economist of the National Ass...
Dec 19, 2025•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 250
Dante joins Mark and Cris for an unusual jobs Tuesday podcast to break down the November employment report. Due to the prolonged government shutdown, the report delivered two months of payroll data, which continues to signal that the labor market is grinding to a halt. With the unemployment rate on the rise, the team discusses their updated recession probabilities, and Marisa’s absence is felt as they struggle through the stats game. Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, ...
Dec 16, 2025•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 249
The Inside Economics team unpacks the Federal Reserve's latest rate decision and the divergence of views among policymakers as they navigate the final stretch of 2025. Mark, Cris, and Marisa debate whether the FOMC's messaging was hawkish or dovish, assess whether a labor market shedding jobs can avoid recession, and explore what it all means for the path of interest rates in the year ahead. After a quick stats game, the trio tackles a few provocative listener questions. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chie...
Dec 12, 2025•50 min•Ep. 248
