Uranium Wild Predictions and which Base Metals Restart will Make Bank First?

Right eye money miners. We were just about to record and have a look what bloody rocked up we've. Got a lovely gift from a money? Miner Oh shout out to WA gifts and hampers. But this is like this is a result of bloody great land gold getting Telfa because straight from as you can see. I'll take a photo of it to serve Matty Michael and his serfs from Sir Stewie the Pom. Great Stewie Hinds. Oh. Thank you. He's.

Trying to buy. Sorry Stewie, we're not talking about bloody Telfer or Grayland or anyone today, but very timely. Cause today's our 400th episode. Oh money of mine. It's crazy, isn't? It oh bloody it. It is the that that is our Super Bowl, Jason. It is our Super Bowl. Oh, poor old Taylor Swift to be upset. Yeah, I know Trav didn't win. No, no luck for the No luck for Kansas. The Eagles took it away this year, Yeah. There you go. It's amazing. They look back.

I think they played years ago and a few years ago, but Kansas City beat them. The other way round. Oh, it's just, it's just real NFL show, right? Let's get to something we know a bit more about than NFL uranium. We're gonna tour, there's a bit of bloody uranium news I'm gonna mix together couple of podcasts in views, news articles and me just making up things that might happen. Love it, but it sounds the more I write about it, the more I believe it. It's great.

J So you're heading out to Cobar? Yeah, to covering a bit of Poly metals. We're looking at a bit of a a peculiar small cap takeover bid and just some lithium around the grounds as well. But let's get into your uranium use.

What's what's going on? What? Has happened. Educate me. Nothing really, I don't think, but I'll just make a segment out of. It let's do. It the so as we've seen the old spot price back below 70 again sitting at 69 bucks though you've got the long term, the long term price, term price. Yeah, yeah.

Starting. Strong 82 bucks a pound midterm sitting at 76 so yeah it's like that spot process continued to have pressure on it and there is some comments from a podcast that come out a YouTube vid that come out during the week with from triangle investor who interviewed Grant Isaac from he's pretty much the top dog second in charge you'd say for Kamiko, which was I don't think I've ever seen him on a podcast before I'm not sure but it's a pretty he's interesting.

Kamiko are the bloody alongside 'cause Adam Prom as we know the most influential player in the uranium market globally. So it was a good yarn. We'll get into that later. But also seen out from our good friend, geez, we've got friends everywhere. Looks like we're really influenced. But I just like it. I just like people. Shoot me. Oh, Peter Kerr, our great friend Peter Kerr. What do you have to? Say, well, he wrote an article today about BHP boys uranium bulls with plans for small

increase in production. And I think I mentioned it the other week saying that, you know, if it was completely opposite to this, saying that if the there was that thought out there that if BHP expanded Olympic dam, that the say, if the copper production doubled, the uranium production would increase at a higher factor because there was that there was

that narrative going around. So, you know, they're producing, you know, 8 to 10,000,000 lbs already of uranium as, as a by product, but still bloody chunky, chunky amounts. So they were thinking if they, you know, doubled it, they could really bring a lot of uranium into the market.

But then what I guess BHP have, you know, they've submitted paperwork to the authorities about the smelter expansion, which would double copper production and pretty much saying that I'll, I'll bring it up here. A lot of the extra feed coming from Carapatina and Prominent Hill is said to not contain that much uranium, so the uranium won't actually increase that much if they double double from, you know, 300 odd 1000 tonne of copper to 600,000.

Which would have made a lot of uranium investors sort of calm, calm down a little bit, I guess. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So which is? Yeah, I don't, I don't know.

I guess it's one of those believe it when I see it things because I know the logic the whole thing around caropotene and prominent Hill being bought into BHP was that there is parts of those mines that do have higher levels of uranium in it and that was like a bottle a constraint for OS minerals because they didn't have they couldn't effectively mine them as easy because the uranium levels well they didn't have the processing solution for it. And I think it would have

affected the concentrate like getting it shipped out if it had high levels of radioactivity. But you know, combining it with the Olympic dam and having that all together now you've got the processing solution. So you don't have to be as selective with the mining. So yeah, I'm not in the weeds enough about Carapatina and Promil, but there was still will be some uranium coming from those operations whether they target that or not in the scheduling.

But they've pretty much said it for doubling in the copper, it'll be a 1% increase in uranium. I think I read SO. Not as much as paper we're expecting. Basically no. And so look, how do you read into that lot BHP's thoughts on like they're trying to, I suppose the 10 eight to 10,000,000 lbs they're selling from Olympic Dam is pretty bugger all compared to what BHP make a year out of iron ore and

copper. So you know, they're they're trying not to lower the uranium price, but it doesn't really have a material effect at all on BHP for how much they produce. But they're not talking the price down that they want to buy a heapy uranium. You could infer. So don't know, maybe they're not a buyer of next Gen. but we'll get to that later. OK, hold on for that one. So. This potty now you mentioned earlier with the Kamiko exec, So what? What? Was that about shout out to

Lucian from Triangle Investor? Bloody highly recommend watching the whole interview. It was very, very interesting and very, you know, Kamiko, he's like he was swinging himself around a bit as Kamiko's like, we're right. Yeah, we're like, you know, we're we're the holding the keys to the closet here. Is that a saying? It is now the gate. Keys to the Kingdom? Oh yeah, it's one of those. Something like that.

I love it out the YouTube comments talking about how much I'll waffle on like I don't care. The more you comment, the more I'm going to do it. So whatever. So I guess I'll play a couple of could play a couple of snippets to highlight and we'll and we'll have a yarn about it. OK. This first one from Grant was around I guess the spot market and you know, Kamikow like very contracted.

They're actually talks about in the interview how they they're contracted 30% more than they're going to produce like because in over the long term because of their, you know what they've got in other resources that are on care and maintenance or brownfield stuff they could bring back on. So they're, you know, in the spot market, they're not very active, but they're talking about comments about people that are active in the spot market. Let's play.

Around so you didn't have the demand building in the term market and yet you had some people for whatever reason show up with material to sell. I mean, January began with a producer who's restarting an asset trying to sell 200,000 lbs in the market in a non fundamental discretionary market where utilities aren't focused. It's a dumb idea. It's a dumb idea every time. And and I don't know how many times we have to say it, but spot market will be under

pressure. If there are those who have productive assets and they don't do the hard work of building a home for them. I have no problem buying in the market when when we show up to buy, there's a response. But what we do not do is play the role of buyer of last resort. If there's a producer out there and they haven't planned things accordingly or they decided that a spot strategy was going to be a really smart idea, you know, they'll often phone us and they'll say, hey, you know, I've

got 200,000 lbs to sell. And, and if you don't buy it, I'm going to put it in the spot market. And I'll tell you our answer 100% of the time is put it in the spot market. Then you'll push down the price, you'll get a lower price for it. I might buy it at that lower price and when the market corrects back up, I'll take that trading margin. But if we start rewarding that kind of behaviour, it will continue.

So, and the, but the mechanism behind Kamiko's revenue is, you know, you could sense why it gets a bit rolled up about this. So because from the, from the, the race star projects and my, and because he's, as with every other uranium executive around the world at the moment, every time they speak, they're talking about the structural supply deficit, like the price is going to do this. And like for, for the restart projects, like selling into the spot is like, because they

believe that too. Everyone's believes it. So it's like, why would you contract out right now or contract a big chunk out and lock your price in? If you believe the price is going up, there's no point contracting it now unless you've got a, you know, a high, a high floor and market referenced pricing that you know follows

the spot. If it does go up, like you, you're going to maintain your flexibility and, you know, sell bits into the spot saying, because you wouldn't think 200,000 lbs would move the spot price too much. But it obviously, if people are, if the the spot price is falling and if like anyone selling into the spot market is putting more pressure on it, why is that piss chemical off so much?

Have a look at this chart. This is how they're based on the old contracts that they've signed, like the market, and I assume they must be not all fixed. They're a majority of it is the market reference price, which means it'll it'll be in a range, but it's like they're effectively paid based on what the spot price is. So as much as they say the spot price is a like no one's interested in the spot market that what the spot price is is what Kamiko gets paid for in their contracts.

So you can see here if the for 2025, if the spot price is 80, they get paid $61.00 a pound. If the spot price is 60, they get paid $55 a pound. So it. Impacts their top line. That that downward pressure is cost in the spot price is costing Gamiko money. So whether it's the more you'd say direct way of saying it don't sell into the spot market because you'll drive the price down and we make less money because. It effects their market referenced contract. Exactly. Yeah, OK.

And and. Interesting. And because there is becoming a big pretty decent gap between So what the long term, long term price to the spot price now is like you know a $13 a pound difference. So there is a pretty big. Is that a historically big difference? Is it normally? Does it trade in a kind of band typically?

I know, I know, like the previous, the way the market was previously set up back in the the previous days was that you know every the term term process where all the action is and then if you've got shit leftover, you'd have to throw it into the spot market. Hence the spot market was always below the term market. I'm not sure how much if it was this much, but yeah, if it that that's like the sort of equilibrium of how the market should operate.

And that's where. So when you know, when last year when like spot price was over $100, the term price was oh, that was bloody that way. It was what, down in the 60s or 70s or something? It's. Still playing catch up? Yeah. So that was just like the. So whether that happens again, who who knows. But the term price didn't follow the spot price up like it did. That was just a bit of short term mania. So yeah, yeah, I found found that very, very interesting. So and you can, you can see both

sides. If the as I said, if the develop the new restarts are thinking it's going to go up, we're going to keep flexibility and the lot because as soon as you sell it, it's sold. But if you've still kept it, you need to sell a bit for cash flow into the spot to keep things going. The the longer you hold onto it, the closer you get into that thesis changing if it does. If it does, who bloody knows good and the way what else? Not sure if he was who's talking about.

I don't know if he knew the actual company or not. But interesting comments around the 200,000 lbs that got put into the market by restart. Mine restart in January so on it because I know boss sold 200,000 lbs into spot in their last quarter and I think that was at 78 bucks a pound. So I think based on based on the quarterly numbers. So that ended up better than what the spot price is now.

So unless it was them again in January or it could be, it could have been Paladin or Denison, like who who knows, But it's very, very direct at those people that are selling into the spot market cause hey, it's costing them money. So 'cause you look at their average realised price, Kamiko for last quarter was $60.00 a pound and look at what the I'll bring up the graph of the spot price since then. So their quarterly results are coming out.

I think it's 20th of February for the December quarter. Couple weeks or so. Yeah. So based on that spot price performance, I dare say we will see Kamiko's realised price be in the 50's, the high 50s. So if the spot price is going down as much and assuming there, there's a good chunk of market reference to pricing in their contracts. So like so when I say market reference pricing, that's means you got a floor ceiling and it tracks the spot price in that band.

If it goes below it doesn't matter, you get paid the floor. If it goes above the ceiling, doesn't matter, you get paid the ceiling. Whereas there's fixed contracts where they'll say they'll Ford sell at, you know, 7075 or 82 and that's what you get paid for it for that that's fixed. But then you get hybrid ones as well where you got a bit of market reference bitter fixed. And then there's obviously multiple contracts that's for for different bits of pounds.

So it's like a freaking, it's a bloody maze, but there. Yeah, that's the difference between market reference and fixed. OK, cool. So yes, we'll that'll be very interesting to see because I think Kameka will be feeling the pinch because you know there as you can see, it looks like the Westinghouse division runs out

of net loss at the moment. Obviously a lot of capital going into that, you know, the uranium, the production save and that's where they're, you know where their profit is coming from. So that is and if it's market reference and they got a lot of years until they really get rid of those old contracts and start getting the benefit of the new ones. As you can see by 2028, even if the spot price is 120, they're gonna get paid 77 a pound. That's these are predicted prices.

That is not the exact one, but that's their sort of they update that every quarter. OK, there you go. God bit of bloody. Are you feeling the yellow cake in your GC? I'm feeling it. Have you got any at the moment? No you don't. Any in the GCETF. No, no. Oh no. I've ain't got an explorer. But nothing, nothing bloody. I'm I'm, I'm still passionate about it, but still interesting. I feel the passion. Oh, I. Love it. Now here's the another next snippet I wanna play.

I found this one. This was Now these are hypotheticals. There's no names mentioned here strategically, but we're going to do some hypotheticals. Let's say who you think he's talking about. Right now, I don't see anything out there in the development phase that we could acquire that makes any sense at all. So we just look at our portfolio different. We know where our pounds are going to come from. We're open to a whole bunch of different models.

We just see a bunch of assets out there that are not coming on that time frame, They're not coming on that schedule. There's a lot of hurt coming to those investors and they're, you know, at, at that point our phone might ring because someone might say, hey, maybe we should call the only guys who actually mine in the Athabaska Basin. Look, I, I, I, I get the game. You know, you, you've got to distinguish yourself somehow

from a bunch of others. And, and generally distinguishing, distinguishing oneself requires all sorts of inflated adjectives, world class, elite, all of these adjectives that you know, somebody who's never done it before probably shouldn't be using. That's one way to distinguish yourself. But the other way is just to say you're going to do it better than anybody's ever done it in history.

And The thing is we don't have to take those views what, what we simply do. And, and, and I, I mean this in, in a very modest sense, we simply apply our own experience. We apply our own experience how long it takes to get licenses and permits. And we apply our own experience how long it takes to build a Greenfield mine because we've done the last couple of Greenfield mines in the Athabaska Basin and, and to build a Greenfield mill and, and

to revitalize a mill. And, and when people are proposing, they're building, they're going to build a Greenfield mill, you know, the same size as McLean Lake, you know, almost the same size as, sorry, the same size as Key Lake, almost the same size as McLean Lake. And they're going to do it for 1/3 of the mine of the mills sustaining and replacement capital. Like it's just it, it begs belief, but I, and this is just an empirical problem. This will be solved by evidence.

And, and our view is there's a lot of hyper promotion and we understand why. We understand why, but we don't get caught up in it. We don't have to get caught up in it. Yeah, right. It is a pretty Now you could say, let's say hypothetically he was talking about next Gen. They're Athabasca Basin neighbor. Well, yeah, like sort of neighbor on the other side, on the other side, the Athabasca, like just hypothetically it's fair.

Like we're and especially talking about the inflated adjectives shouldn't be used by people that haven't done it before. So there's a lot of reference to yeah, experience and having done it before and and and those sorts of phrases. I think, I think fascinating. Yeah. I think you wouldn't. You wouldn't think if he was hypothetically talking about next Gen. they wouldn't be. They don't look like they'd be doing a deal right now, put it that way.

Because you don't. You don't really do a deal with someone that's hanging shit on you. I can't, cannot see that happening anytime soon. They're and they're, you know, they're honing in on the promotion, the wishful thinking on CapEx spend and the timeline. So maybe they would look at it cheaper in the future, which was which he also outlined that they, you know, look at value, they are the logical owner of an asset like that being as the O the OG uranium miner in the Athabasca Basin.

But you know, I what did you take from that GC? Yeah, no, I think, well, he didn't mention names as as I think it was. It's all hot, very pretty reasonable to sort of infer from those comments or who he was talking about. But you know, there are, I mean, they're, they're in the they're in the same region.

It does sort of make sense, but it's, it's, it's like a lot of other development players in other commodities as well where, you know, the, the tried and tested sort of producer sort of sees there's interesting, you know, development players come online, perhaps they have a bit of difficulty with, you know, ramp up or development, things like that. And that's where that value play comes in and they can sort of collect them should they choose to at at that point.

So that doesn't really surprise me. No. And you look at look at value in terms of OK, BHP paid Canadian 4 1/2 billion for FILO. That's and that's, you know, long, long life, lot of opportunity there. You know, next Gen. has that at the moment based on what it's proven up. It's got that seven years of high grade that seven years of

£30 million. But after that it's not, I think there's a lot more to be proven up and a lot more like they won't, they don't sustain that level for a long time. You know, their market cap at the moment, what is it, 5 and a bit Canadian billion. So you just cannot see, you just can't really see anyone really coughing up right now 7810 billion Canadian like because it's you know, it's not at record highs at the moment, but it'd need a bloody good premium

I think to be to be taken out. I just cannot see that happening, especially, you know, approval is coming up possibly this quarter, maybe like looks like the final administrative part for the approval is just what's needed like the leg works being done there. So that's going to be a big a big catalyst for them. And you would think logically that you'd think that would drive the price higher, but you know, they're sitting at near all time highs with this.

You know, even though the the term prices increase, the spot price has decreased with which is a is a sentiment thing, but everything is still bullish. But you know, you know, they might have to pay bloody 10 billion to take them out. Which I don't still have the CapEx to spend as well to build the thing too. Yeah, yeah, which I think they've got it Canadian two and a bit. So Chuck a heap a bloody Mayo on the top of that. But I reckon post approval there could be.

But you you could throw a frigging curve. They next Gen. might throw a curveball out and not sit there And what? Well, look at what's happened with Paladin fishing. So fission is it's not arrow equivalent, but it's, you know, it's next door. It's a still a decent uranium deposit. Paladin are the they got the restart project in Langar Heinrich. They've merged them together. You know, the whole theory behind.

Yeah, well, you know, obviously the more more flows when you're bigger JC. But you know, I think it worked out. It was it 76, I think percent Paladin, 24% fission. Use the pending cash flows from Lang Heinrich to help assist fund fission in the future. Fund the development of the PLS. Maybe next Gen. could do the same. Next Gen. like especially when they're at bloody, you know, near all time highs in and there's, you know, post approval that could go high.

This script is pretty bloody valuable. They reckon they'd be the acquirer. Well no they no I. I reckon next Gen. Might look to use to do something with their script if it's that. Yeah, that's what I mean, yeah. Or what if what's the equivalent of Paladin? There's not many producers around. No boss. He's from SA. He's went to uni in South Australia. I think he's born in Melbourne, Lee, but he's from South Australia. Honeymoon's in South Australia.

If you're it's it's sort of the same theory. Use a bit of the it's not gonna it's probably only a small chunk of it, but pending the future cash flows of honeymoon can help assist the development of arrow. It's not going to wouldn't cover the bloody whole thing, but it sure as hell they. Subsidise it a bit. They've bloody they've just

rebuild a plant in honeymoon. So you actually bring in a lot of a bit of operational people that have actually, you know, they've they didn't a lot of a lot of the plant was there, but they did convert it from solvent extraction plan into an IX plant. A lot of similarities in the

processing. Like you look at the flow sheet for next Gen., like there's a whole leaching phase, which is, you know, adding sulfuric acid, hydrogen per peroxide, the ferric like the oxidizing agents to leach the uranium out exactly the same as what gets flushed through the paleo channel at an ISR project. So I think they do solve an extraction after that, which is, you know, the kerosene version

instead of ion exchange. So, but like there's you know, they've got the operational side that they could then transfer over to help build the arrow projects. That's sort of answers grants hypothetical challenges posing that they haven't built a mill before. And I think the actual if they if you did join them together, the dilution would be to next Gen. will be heaps less than it was to Paladin because I think what are their relative market

caps? I think next gen's market caps about 6 bill Aussie at the moment. Boss is 1.35 S. The pro forma would be bloody at a minimum 8020 like so it wouldn't actually be as dilutive. I don't know but. Do you think mining in in processing in the Athabaska at a scale that's much bigger compared to Adelaide at a smaller scale I mean? All right, tight, the mining's you'd need a whole new mining team like if you were gonna do the actual that's the the mining side is one thing, like the

processing's one thing. That's it. The only expertise you get to be for the processing of it, the whole the mining of it. That is like a that is the biggest challenge there, especially like the the whole tilings, the tiling side, like the underground backfill side, like the trying to bloody that'd be freezing all like to try and like all or automated mining like at least you'd you'd sort that you'd be ticking off the plant.

But at the moment they've got, I don't know what expertise they've got in terms of you know what, they should take over an underground mining company as well. Yeah, what? What's if they can help? If they could get boss for the plant and then take over, They've got friggin, you know, script will be worth bloody shit. Like script will be high. They might as well take over. How could they take over in Canada? Might as well just get Newmont while you're at it. Yeah, just.

'Cause I just wonder, like how much experience and sort of cash flow you can, like how much of that is really gonna help, you know, in this hypothetical, you know, how much, you know, for how much, you know, say if they were doing it through, you know, using their script, how much dilution they'd have to do to sort of get some experience and get some cash flow to subsidise the development. I don't know. Yeah, I think the the mining big job mining outweighs well see

what are they gonna do? They're like either gonna if not, if they're if they remain too highly valued and no like and no one's going to buy them at because they're so, so expensive. Like, yeah, the value is there for the uranium unless like a, you know, an Orano comes along or like someone really takes a big a big swing at it or buys a a part of the project. I'm not sure.

But it's like if no one's going to buy them like that is such a such a big feat to take on. Like they nearly need to, they need to, that's a lot of people to recruit there unless they start pin. Maybe after that YouTube interview, they'll start recruiting all the Kamiko people. Well, this will get you back. We'll start pinching all your people.

But it's it's getting the, you know, the technical experience, but then you need the local experience as yeah, I think my hypothetical is, I reckon 10 to 15% of the what's needed, it's the local mining and bloody. Permitting and the. Whole region that just the just trying to figure out how to bloody build something in -40° like it is a big feat so absolutely anyway it's been recorded I.

Check it on the dartboard. Happens of hey, you never know, it's just it might solve just a just processing and a bit of cash. Why not? Why not? Why not? I don't know. All right, Well, yeah, I don't. It's just after hearing that I don't think chemical are going to take them. Not just yet, at least. Anyway, it doesn't seem like. It but then when like in terms of waiting for value, like after, you know, construction ramp up and that that could be bloody. Years away. Oh.

That could be like 20-30. One, but it doesn't sound like they're in a particular rush though. Nah and like they've got to they won't know what ramp up is until they're producing, which is like after mining down 600 odd metres underground with shafts need all the, you know, the backfill areas in place. Like it is a huge, huge project to get down there. So oh God, I don't even know if there will even be a bloody podcast by the time by the time

that's bloody producer. Who knows, we might all be on to something else by then, who knows, who knows. So we'll we will wait and see. Absolutely. Oh, just anyway, buddy, although the one the one difference, but well, the one thing that won't apply between friggin ISR and because it's Hard Rock over there is like like as the shafts. You got to pay all the shafts like the the power is a lot more of a cost.

You got to between the shafts, the crushes, the bloody jumbos underground, the ventilation ventilation will be huge. Just bloody power everywhere. Global independent power producer, cross boundary energy. I think they should be on the ticket. JC. Oh absolutely. Back for another round. I think they might might go to the Athabaska to throw in a

quote. Welcome back CBE, Get a quote to the Athabaska. Can you imagine after this episode if if next Gen. takeover boss and CBE do the power plant for next Gen. Like how good is that? How good would I look? I look like a friggin genius. Oh, but trusted name in international power GC and they're now in Australia. They were last year too when we're talking about them. So right you could you could say mine sites are powered by CBE, but CBE Australia is powered by Tim Taylor. I love it.

Hybrid power stations are their jam. Build, own and operate. Give them a buzz. Go CBE, right OGC, let's head to Coba for you know, it's only

just clicked to me why they're called Poly metals. Why's that? Well, it's like, you know. Multiple metals. LED zinc lights all. It's in the name, isn't it? Silver lights. There you go. What? A great what a great find today. Oh. Bloody hell. Anyway, just take it away. Alrighty. So just wanted to touch on this one today because so this is a Poly metals capital raise $35

million. It had a bit of an unusual start to launching it's capital raise the other day, but also exciting is we'll hopefully be seeing another Aussie base metals restart getting restarted, restarted next quarter. And they're mining Poly metals. Yeah, and that's it. So as I mentioned before, Poly Metals raised 35,000,000 bucks at $0.80 a share to progress their endeavour, restart activities and accelerate exploration. So it was done at reasonably tight discounts to last close

in, in V WAP. They also launched a 3.2 million share purchase plan SPP. They raised Quantum's about 22% of their their current market market caps of around 160 million early today. So what are they sort of getting into the details on the use of funds here?

So if you look at slide six of their investor presser, it says 35,000,000 institutional placement to accelerate near mine and regional exploration and in just across from it in slightly smaller text funds will also provide additional working capital as endeavour transitions into production.

So yes, there are funds certainly going to exploration, but if you flick a few slides further down to slide 12, you can see actually the majority of those funds are going to basically working capital, you know balance sheet strength as they call it. So, so it's probably probably a bit the other way around, but you can see there between the equity raising proceeds their their cash at 31 December and some undrawn financing facilities that'll pretty much

look after the remaining restart capital They've got for Endeavour that out of 22,000,000 dollars, $10 million worth of near mine and regional exploration work and then the 34 million out of corporate general working cap and and offer costs. So they reckon that remaining CapEx component, that 22 mil is capable of being funded from basically the rest of their prepayment facility from Ocean Partners.

So that was US 20 mil. They drew down US 5 mil of that in December. So they got US15 of that to go. So they post all of this raise, they'll end up with a pro forma cash position of 37 million and they've still got, you know, undrawn debt facilities around 26,000,000.

So the balance sheet must have been running pretty tight if the pro forma cash is 37 after raising sort of gross proceeds of of 35. But they've certainly done well to raise, you know, predominantly for balance sheet strength, you know purposes at a, at a decent issue price of $0.80 a share. I mean, there, if you look at the share price graph here, you know, that's sort of, you know, 12 month high dollar and one cent.

It was only sub $0.40 only a few months ago really in in September. Oh, awesome. RIP. That's whatever. Yeah. But going back to sort of the start of the capital raise, bit of a bumpy start to launching it. So check out the timestamp of this Street Talk article at 1:09 last week on the 6th of February and check out the sort of the ASICS announcements for Poly metals. You can see very promptly at 1:55 a pause and trading's come out and then soon after a a

trading halt. So it's not not the most ideal way to launch a capital raiser, but it looks like they ultimately got it across the line. So that's, that's Sydney, that's in the market time, yeah. That's so that's over east time. Over East time, yeah, that's. Right, Jesus Christ. And that's oh. Which look, it's it's yeah, sometimes can happen, but yeah, they'll obviously got it away anyway.

Just bloody it's, I don't know. I don't know how I feel about them putting articles out during market hours. Yeah, it's if. They're not in trading out yet. That doesn't sit right with me. Yeah, it's certainly not ideal. That can cost people cash. So I think, 'cause I think the share price did trade down a a little bit once they come out, but because of how sort of reasonably quickly the pause in shaded come through sort of stopped that. Reasonably quickly. I could sell a few shares in

bloody 46 minutes. Yeah, yeah. Yes, anyway. So bit of background on on Poly metals and the Endeavour mines. So like I mentioned before, about 160 million market cap company, they're restarting the Endeavour's silver zinc mine in, in the Coba that's in in NSW. So they actually completed the acquisition of the asset and and a completed a mine plan for it last August.

So just flash up a a slide of so the outcomes of that so producing 10.6 million ounces of payable silver, 260,000 tonnes of papal zinc and 90,000 tonnes of payable LED over an initial 10 year mine life. So they're like you could say that they're going to be zinc neutral like 'cause you think of the zinc they're mining, 'cause they're gonna be jam and Sandvik ground support in which is zinc coated for the galvanizing. And then they're gonna every bolt they put in, they're

producing the zinc. So they're going to, they're going to be a net, a net Zinc 0 operation as I said. A net 0 zinc producer. Net 0 zinc. It's like they're going to be producing green zinc like. That is such a useful statistic that I I didn't need. No, I needed. Some of the greatest zinc mines, like you know, George Fisher or anyway anywhere else that produces zinc, Woodlawn, they're going to be producing green

zinc. It's going to be because they're going to be jamming in Sandvik ground support, the only ground support you choose to jam in, and you're going to be sending Sandvik the zinc as well. So it's just everyone. Sandvik's winning. Poly Metals is winning. Everyone's winning. It's like a complete circle life cycle of zinc. Is it go zinc? Who said zinc? Zinc if you you just need to change the way you think about zinc, just think about Sambic

ground support. That was I like the note in the show notes, the surprise Sandvik ad. That was a surprise. I like the element of surprise with the ad. Stand it was good fun it. Just means I don't have to write them out, I'll just say whatever. Comes up here it's. All good. Oh anyway, sorry to interrupt. No, you're good. And then so, yeah, so they'll, they'll generate 609,000,000 predex free cash flow and a $414

million pretax MPV 8 from that. And they're just looking across the time on sort of they started to see that big share price run sort of late September, early October. So they had a had a big hit at at Endeavour 67 metres at 517g per tonne silver equivalent. Then sort of shortly after that completed the project finance, which we mentioned earlier US 20 million prepaid from Ocean Partners. I actually love their, their project ramp up updates.

They, they, they've got the whole like mega trend really leading into it. They're going for a mega make endeavour great again, really in the whole restart and mega themes. So I love that in their in their last ramp up progress update early this month, I said, you know, surf and underground works will progress in a plan, mobile fleet deliveries continuing, recruiting ongoing.

And they're sort of working on re establishing access to the high grade silver Upper North Road and they're targeting first silver and zinc production in April 2025 with first cashless month after. But yeah, you know the yeah, like I said, it's pretty much up to 100% from last September. Yeah, but the commodity prices have gone up a bit as well too. You know, silver's up 42% in the last 12 months. It's about 32 bucks an ounce. US at the minute, zinc, even

zinc's gone up boring old zinc. So you know gone up about 20% last 12 months about in the two eights USA tonne at at the minute Mac copper or as as previously known Metals Acquisition Corp actually has a shareholding in Poly Metals as well. So. Quite logical, yeah. So logical 1, you don't need geography doesn't apply in M&A these days. Don't worry about geographical synergies.

We're doing bloody, just go out Paladin Vision next Gen. boss Westgold Korora. Don't worry about geography. It's all good. So yeah, they, they took a 4.3% stake in in Poly metal was about nine months ago at $0.35 a share for 2 1/2 bill. So they've made some good bank on that one. But they can invest another 2 1/2 mil at $0.35 a share when certain conditions precedent CPS are met. So if we'll flash up the the screen grab there from the announcement back in May of last

year. So and one of those being polymetals securing sufficient funding to restart the Endeavour mine and processing plant. And they're also sort of looking at entering a tolling agreement together to treat the zinc ore at Mac's plant and also a water offtake agreement where Mac can draw some water from the Endeavour mine pipeline. So I imagine now most of those should with this funding, I imagine all of those CPS would have been probably ticked off.

I guess I'm not too sure, but just having I just wanted to refresh myself where Mac or the CSA mine is sort of in in

relation to endeavour. And it looks like about roughly 30 cases as a as a crow flies in in this image here in the Holly Metals Prezo. But yeah, hopefully they can get their restart over the line without sort of any further funding develops Woodlawn actually, because I thought, oh, surely this would be, you know, you know, the most recent base metals sort of race start sort of coming back online.

But Woodlawn's due, you know, for first production and and cash flow in the June quarter as well. I'm a Ding, Ding on, on develop, but yeah, I'll be curious to see who will be first develop or Poly metals. So yeah, no good to see some action back in base metals

again. Yeah. And isn't it funny looking at like develop and Mac like considering the whole how Mac became Mac with Bill being involved in the the SPAC, you'd say to get to get bloody CSI into Metals Acquisition Corp. Now what is it? Mac Copper Mac. Copper now, yeah. It went Metal Mails Acquisition Corp, Metals Acquisition Limited and then Mac Copper. Yep. So I got it right. Yeah, I think that's about

right. So I just wondered like and then that was it. That was the link on a because Mick McMullen was, he was on the board to develop. Then he obviously resigned off the board. And I don't know, it's just like they've part of bikes. I wonder if there will be any interaction ever again, like developed getting a contract there or rather than who who knows, they've just or they're going to be now in competition. Yeah, bizarre family tree. Oh, that's mining for you.

Oh. Right there, JC, we have now. I don't know if this is I don't know if it's surely there's been an on market takeover. The the on market takeover today between for Patronus taking over matter proposing to it. Just obviously I can. I can't think of what if there's been any sense while you taking over Mincore because that was the in terms of an on market takeover with the big huge byline order. Sitting on screen. Shit loads of hundreds of millions of shares sitting on

screen. I'm sure the M&A bankers in the audience will be sure to let us know, but yeah, no. Well, Ben Bailey about that, yeah, I'm sure he knows I'll probably, there's probably been like fucking 8 or 9, but. It's no, you're right. They're definitely on the on the rarer side. So, so the context, yeah, as Maddie was saying, the Patronus announced an on market takeover for gold developer Matzer at at four and a half cents, sort of

valuing Matzer at 33 million. And so Patronus and their associates, which is IE the Delphi Deutsche Belgium group already hold about 19 1/2% of MATSA. And Patronus said in their announcement today, Patronus has made the offer with the intention of increasing its ownership in MATSA and will seek to potentially restructure the existing MATSA board and management and conduct a strategic review of Matsa's asset base.

And they appointed EUR Hartley's broker to stand in the market to purchase MATSA shares at the at the offer price from today. A bit of statement came out today as well. And MATSA subsequently later today issued a sort of a take no action release in response to the unsolicited takeover. Now I'm not going to touch too much on the on the deal itself today, but what sort of caught both of our eye is that was the

takeover mechanism. Mechanism being an on market takeover which you rarely say most mining deals are you know more often than not an off market takeover or by way of the scheme. So for those money miners who are not so sure how on market takeover bid works. Come into the Alley GC educational section. Come. Come into the tent.

So basically the bidder in this example, Petrodus appoints a stockbroker, which today's example EUR Hartley's to stand in the market on ASICS and purchase the target securities, which is Matson on behalf of the bidder. So the stockbroker places a a buy order on the ASICS trading platform equal to, you know, the bidders offer price, which in today's offers four and a half cents a share, all quoted securities in that target it doesn't already own.

And then the target shareholders then simply sell their shares on ASICS to the bidder at that offer price, if you know, if they choose to. And because an on market bid is conducted on an ASICS trading platform, the offer must consist of cash consideration only and it has to be unconditional. And that's sort of one of the main reasons why they're often not saying because, you know, you can't have conditions or you might want to use your script. So in that case, you can't, you

know, do do it that way. Yeah, you literally need the cash and and you've got no choice. Of and just full send it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Full send. And, and obviously the, the key advantage of, of using going about it this way is, is speed. So, you know, you can start buying target shares within an hour of announcing the sort of takeover bid to ASICS.

But the problem you can run into is if the stock is trading above the offer price, then there's no real speed advantage because you can't, you know, all the shares can be trading, but if they're not at the offer price, you can't buy them and. You've got people buy then selling shares and people that are buying them above your offer price, they're going to be less inclined to sell them at a loss. Yeah.

Well, that's right. So for example, I saw sort of mats today trading in the sort of high fours, which is. More than the 74.8, yeah. Which more than the offer price of four and a half cents. So correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think any actual they didn't increase their ownership at all today. I don't think any shares traded,

let's just get the final NAP. So you can see on either the big byline of 599,000,000 shares, which is not all them I don't think, but most of them are at four and a half cents. But everything today 2.83 million shares traded at 4.7 to 4.8. So they actually the price just rose up 17 1/2 percent, but nothing actually cleared at that four and a half cents. Today, yeah. So you can with on market takeover bids, you can increase the offer price at any time sort of before the last five trading

days of the offer period. But if they do, the bidder doesn't need to pay that increased consideration to target shareholders who have already accepted. So say you in today's example sold into that four and a half cents and then you know, 3 weeks later they up it to $0.05. You know, you don't get that at half a cent. That's too bad. You've sold your shares that's

even finished. Yeah, the bid in these scenarios, the bids often driven by the bidder and doesn't really, you know, require target consent or corporation. So they tend to, more often than not be more hostile type deals rather than friendly, unless obviously, of course, you know, the target sort of comes out and says, yes, you know, we recommend this deal. Go ahead, da, da, da, da da. I could see Kamiko and Next Gen. being a on market takeover. Oh, that's nice. Bit a bit hostile, yeah.

And on the same day you announce all this, you need to submit a bit of statement which they did put it out today in today's example on the targets has to respond in in two weeks to that. So it'll be interesting to say how this deal plays out given like where the share price is, has been trading relative to the offer price and and what Matt's response is to to all of it. So yeah, bit of a interesting one we don't always sort of see

day-to-day, but. He, I suppose, I suppose Petronas had to figure out a way for us to talk about him. So there's a lot, a lot to go on. Maybe 'cause you think back to the Minkor Wailu thing. Yes, they put in the Dollar 40 offer and then it started trading above 'cause there was the thought that that was nickel Mania time. They were thinking that, you know. Something else going?

To come in. But then BHP gave Wailu the gift in saying that some, I think it was some of the minkor or what was stockpiled separately or wasn't accepted due to the high arsenic levels. And once that news, once that news came out, Wailu said Nah, dollar 40, best and final and cause. That and then everyone sort of sold into that, didn't they? Yeah, yeah, everyone. Yeah. So that cause and then I know there was mechanisms around 'cause once you go best and

final you can't obviously. No, that's it. That's. Go up anymore and then so it worked out good good for him. So this is obviously day one of this, so we will. Wait and see, keep an eye on it, yeah. Oh quick around the grounds, can't wait till the boys get back and bloody all these half

One Financial results like talking that's. Their that's. For sure underlying statutory profit loss. Look, not that I don't care, but it's not my. I'd rather just talk about uranium speculation and underground mining like geometry. Everyone's got their coming to you, buddy. We'll limp limped through it bloody. Also because Pilbara sort of they've pre. I don't know is this a thing pre? Reporting of reporting pre. Reporting financial results instead of pre reporting

production. So pre reporting EBITDA of 71 to 75,000,000 for half one, but a net loss of. So an underlying net loss estimated of five to seven million. So because I think they're the carrying value of let me say it without reading it, see how smart I am, but like the the call option to purchase the extra in the POSCO JV that the carrying value of that has been reduced, which obviously then is like a statutory loss. Yes, it impacts your pay now, that's right.

Yeah. So that's what that's why I say their statutory loss is greater than their underlying net loss. Underlying is just from the operations and the CapEx and bloody everything with the carrying value that's a non cash

reduction. Yeah. So it's just interesting because even despite their sort of roughly, you know, US 400 bucks a tonne F of a unit cost for, for the first half of this year, so far they've got $1.2 billion cash a bank and they're still, you know, practically just shy of, you know, breaking even on on an underlying basis. So Jesus, what are that? You know, that the implications for sort of other lithium, you know, players or, you know, lithium spod players in particular, it's sort of, yeah,

sort of not, not awfully great. Well, I think and like prep to prep everyone for the financial results like when they talk about EBITDAR that's you know, like I, I think a rule of thumb, I don't think it's exactly the same, but like a gold miner's EBITDAR, if you take the all in sustaining cost away from the sale price, effectively that margin is your EBITDAR, but it doesn't include all the CapEx and the corporate overheads. Yeah. And all that, but it's.

A rough rule of thumb. Yeah, so you could have positive EBITDAR, but if you spend a shit load of capital, it doesn't you still lose money. It's AI think it's an I don't know how the best to explain it, but the what did they say? Was it bloody Charlie Munger or Warren Buffett saying EBITDAR is not the calculation to use in a capital intensive business? Which mining is? What is it bullshit earnings? Bullshit earnings? That's what he called EBITDA is bullshit earnings. Oh no, always, always.

I like looking at at Cash, Cash in, cash out personally. Yeah. But then they, but a lot of when they talk about company valuations are on EV to EBITDA multiple that I suppose that's how they look at, you know, how much money the operations make. Yeah. So yeah, I'll stop talking 'cause I'll of the more more I'll talk digger the diaper. I'll dig.

No, you're all right. And then the the last one for today was we saw the sort of the a, a flagged in a UBS note out into last week saying that CATLS, the pedalite mine in Jiangxi is apparently currently resuming operations according to Shanghai Metals market. It's sort of featured in the in the AFR today as well. So apparently they're sort of suspended operations there last September.

So, you know, off the that, you know, on that news sort of last Friday, you know, Hillbra Blind town means RGO, their share prices all came off a few percent. They're all sort of flattish today.

You know, why resume operations at at prices close to where they were, you know, when that was sort of suspended operations that sort of suggested maybe due to low inventories, you know, trying to mix with high grade or, you know, reducing, you know, sort of unit costs and sort of that sort of a thing. You know, according to the latest production sort of stats from CMM, this mine could contribute sort of five to 6000 tonnes LCE per month after it sort of resumes.

So it's decent volumes. But yeah, just the the whole lithium supply demand roller coasters just just seems to continue, doesn't it? Yeah, no, the IT was pretty bearish that you UBS Snowden and like they were saying post Chinese New Year, like, you know, inventories were were low, which has sort of given a bit of a tick up in the lift price. And but now this little bit of light mine restarting and yeah, they reckon it might be they're they're predicting it being a

bit under pressure. Taking it going. Forward so, but we will wait and see the the Chinese bloody lapidolite tap. They can turn on and off whenever they bloody want. Yeah, or something mad might happen and it might go 5X, who knows. One of the two. Bloody who bloody knows. I know that I know that Underground Operators Conference is the best underground conference in the world. That is one thing I do now. That is a fact for sure.

And you can get another fact is you can get 100 bucks off using the code MOM 100. Link it in the show notes to the Ozil. MMM Underground Operators Conference. Come bloody have a beer with me. 'Cause I'm hanging out with. Maddie, I'm gonna be having a few there. Oh, I don't. Mineral mining services won't be gone. They're they're more an open pit contractor, but I don't think they'll be. I got grounded.

I wonder Paul Natali, please come to underground operators with me. Sambit ground support. They will have a huge tent there. I am probably just going to hang around with Derek Hurd all the time at that conference. Or CR insurance it is. Oh, it's in Adelaide, so it's right in the middle of Tari Harrow. Not sure who. Dads all of years come bloody K drill, surface RC drill and probably not as applicable. Saltbush contracting. Yeah, it'd be rude. Once it once it once it comes

out of the mine they get a time. Specialist. Yeah, Swick absolutely by 17,000,000 meters drilled underground. Yeah, they'll have a tent. They might even have a deep X tent there. Quattro Project engineering, the inventors of the bloody Oh surely they'll pace the the the pace diverter the friggin the fan or like the fan hangers, the AWP baskets like they are underground as anything and cross be entry energy. No point have an underground if you can't pay out the bloody

thing. Absolutely. Right. I heard a room money morning. Jeez, that was a long 1, Jason. You're just used to it, aren't you? No, it's just. Same shit. Different. That's alright. Once the boys come back I'll have a couple of weeks off. It's all good, I'll leave you alone. See ya. The information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular

person. Before making any investment decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.