Have investors overblown Cobre Panama’s risk?

Righto money miners, just savvy ground sport. That's all you got a bloody think about. This episode is brought to you by Derek Hurd and the bloody team. Split sets all the way to D bolts, good mesh, all the ways to seismic. Seismic mesh. Just the best ground sport in the world and the best, most reliable supplier for it. Ground best in the business. It's in the night. It it is in the night now that's grounded, isn't it? Seem to ground support, yes. Does support the ground?

Yeah, it does. It does. Freebie for you there, Grant. Right. What do we got today? Oh God. Let's just RIP straight. We got a chance. So we're pretty much we, I buggered up, we had to record, re record one of my bits and then we got to the end and realised we didn't even fucking record any of it. So we can confirm hopefully if you listen to this record and this one. Can we have the same conversation again without it sounding like we're having the

same conversation again? Well, even the second time was a bit different to the first time, so we'll see how we go. I reckon we're talking about first Quantum, we're talking about Cascabel and Soulgold. We're talking about a bit of Wheeling and dealing in the uranium space at the at the junior end with Boss Energy and Laramide and a little overview on Orabanda at the expiration end of their bits out in the goldfields. Let's go.

Yeah, right. Let's RIP in. So boss, boss have acquired come out this morning, acquired stake in Laramide. So this fills the gap of where the extra bloody listed investments they had that we didn't know where it was in the quarterly. I think they put 10 million US into Encore, but they had 30 odd million in listed investments. So we're thinking they've either topped up Encore or they bought something else.

So because it says today they've got 9% of Larimod at Canadian, $0.60 a share and that's on top, that takes them to 18.4 total. So they obviously held 9.4 under custodian which makes up for that listed investment things. They're obviously being chipping away at that. So I think Larimod, we've talked

about them before. I think they say their flagship asset is the Westmoreland uranium project in Queensland and they've obviously they've also got some stuff in New Mexico which sort of has a link to to boss in Hawaii as well, maybe do. You think the appeal is the the Queensland stuff or the New Mexico stuff? More I think. A bit of both because Queensland's got a moratorium. Moratorium got it right. That's the third time if I can't.

Moratorium on the uranium which? Means it's just not allowed. What do I say, Mauritanian? Mauritanium. So but the, I think the the, I think the Libs are back in power there now. So who knows what's going to happen there. But essentially it's a no uranium mining zone at the moment. So it's a bit of a counter cyclical play to purchase stuff

in there. I think God, I think the I think the main one there, I'm not sure, but I think Pat, the one that paladins got in Queensland. I memory someone told me they paid 1.2 billion for that back in the day. I hope. It was sense 1.2 billion so. It wasn't unfortunately. And then Paladin unbecame Paladin you'd say so all right, what they've got. So this they did a pay for this Westmoreland one in Queensland. They did a pay a back in 2016 and I think that add CapEx of US

300, 10 million or something. So I think that all has to be redone. They, they did upgrade the resource not long ago. So it's actually it's the indicator resource is people like 50,000,000 lbs at 770 PPM then got 17,000,000 of pounds inferred as well. But it's a it's an open pit. So it's not an ISR, it's actually a open pit operation. So it's but why there's mining lease applications submitted, it's obviously the moratorium on uranium mining there. So it's not something in the

bloody near future anyway. It's it's a £4 million proposed production capacity there for a 2,000,000 tonne plant. Then the stuff in New Mexico they've also got. So that's this Church Rocks. That's that's a nice one. So that's £50 million at point O 8%. So that's 800 PPM. So it's sort of similar to what honeymoon wells got that's at sort of the final permitting stages by the sounds they got like a restoration permit to get past, but the actual uranium mine and processing permit has

been given to them. So essentially the the there's not much of a link with what though, because boss picked up the exploration ground earlier this week. They've got like that earning process for to get up to 80%, then they can pay 60 million for to get to 90%. But that's I think that's more near Ranger. This the one in Westmoreland crosses over to NT that looks pretty unexplored, but it's sort of in a in a different spot to what they picked up earlier in the week.

But then I guess the stuff in New Mexico is right in and around on course assets in New Mexico. So if there is a potential future where Boss does something with Encore, like we know they're only ain't got that. They've got a minor equity interest at the moment, but it's all at the project level with Alta Mesa. But you know, as we said, Encore's under a bit of financial stress at the moment with the money they owe BOSS and operations not performing in the management change.

So I'll just be interested to see if anything comes about there. So it looks like, you know, sort of chipping away at these things, putting them haven't actually taken anything over yet, but chipping away at these companies and potential projects that sort of might be changing the narrative a bit is not just a producer. There could be some cumulative growth pounds there that could start coming into the story. So we'll wait and see what bloody happens there. I did that hoops quicker last

time. Way quicker. That's a fascinating, fascinating part of the world

there. As we as we said just before New Mexico, people know from from Breaking Bad in the area and what Mesa the mill that's the energy fuels one in the place called Moab, which is where the first uranium was discovered in the States and the Los Alamos laboratory where were the smartest physicists in the world all went to work on the Manhattan Project. So a long and and super, super interesting history in that part of the world, Maddie. Oh, just yeah, I was just a what was his name?

What was the Mexican's name in breaking bag to Hector Salamanca? Yeah, he's from Albuquerque. And the, well, the first guy, oh, forget his, forget his name, the loose one that just used to bloody smash it with a knife and hook it in with. Anyway, we're off. Track in in Season 1 I remember that's one of the few shows I've watched twice. Actually it's. A very, very addictive you. Don't even watch TV mate, you just listen to podcasts. Mate this was over like at least

a year period. It took me a while.

Righto Trav, is Kobride Panama coming back? I am very curious about the answer to that question, Maddie. I think, I think there's a, yeah, big interesting question to be posed about whether Cobra Panem is coming back in the near future. And also like, does that mean that first quantum is, is is undervalued right now? Because yeah, before I start, I think the answer to, to both of the above could probabilistically be yes.

But this is this is just my view based on kind of, you know, weighing up my view of the probabilities, but on, on the public information. But I might be wrong too, right. So just I'll take you on the journey that I've been on to to try and articulate why why I think this way and I'll flag this is just a bit of a prelude. Like I'm not going to be exhausted here. In fact, I've got more work to do, but this is just kind of where my thinking's at right

now. Firstly, I want to show you the historic just price to NAV trading multiple of first quantum versus it's pureplay copper pier. So, you know, think the likes of on this chart, I've got sand fire, Antofagasta, Ivanhoe, Freeport. And also in the blue there at the bottom, you can see that is the rolling price to NAV ratio of first quantum. And this is simply just pulled from cap IQ consensus rolling Pnav. This quantum's Pnav. You can see it just falls off a Cliff around October 2023.

And that's when shit just hit the fan in in relation to its Cobra Panama asset. But we, we kind of, we've explored what's happened there in the past, but the government deemed it unconstitutional after a bunch of, you know, environmental pushback. And, and when the P rolling P NAV falls off a chart, that's because it's share price fell off a chart. And, and then since then it can't, it's trended towards where it is today, which is

about 0.84 times NAV. But before it fell off the Cliff, it was, it's historic, historically basically just trended along one times NAV. And if that was a whole story, it wouldn't be that interesting to me.

Well, but what this chart isn't capturing is the fact that the the research analysts who are covering first quantum, they've all become they've all begun discounting the evaluation of Cobra Panama. So, so they aren't they aren't keeping the same NAV in the denominator of that equation. In fact, they've generally been risking it by 50%. And I'll show you what I mean, flash it up.

Now here's the RBC valuation, for example, the the the NAV per share that they derive for when they're valuing first quantum is, is in Canadian dollars $19.00 per share. But to get to that, they've risked the cash flows from the, you know, the key Cobra Panama asset by 50%. If those cash flows were unrisked, IE 100% attributable to 1st quantum, it would be $30 per share. And that's a massive, a massive difference.

Probably a lot. The the, the consensus calculation for cap IQ though, it's what it's pulling is the that $19.00 per share number, not the $30 per share number. So it's taking the risk NAV into equation, not the UN risked NAV for an asset that is it's effectively like, you know, developed. It just needs the, the political certainty. Now look at city exact same thing. They're valuing Cobra Panama at 50% of its NPV due to the uncertainty Scotiabank double punishing Cobra Panama valuation.

The NAV per share of the company that they they derive is 1631 based on Cobra Panama scenario that is risk 70% and has a 4% by discount rate than other assets and assumes 20% of the mine is ceded to Panama. So you can't you can't get the picture here. The, the, the consensus P NAV for first quantum is low already like point .84 now, but that's also using a, an, an A a risk NAV that that you know, is, is punitive to, to cobra Panama as a real economic potential.

So it's kind of up to you to, to come to a conclusion about how much that economic potential is actually going to be flowing to 1st quantum as, as things come towards hopefully a bit of a conclusion. And, and this is interesting because we're likely to get, I think we could be likely to get some sort of agreement or at least some, some sort of, you know, more certainty or clarity around what is going to happen in relation to Cobra Panama in the next 12 months.

If the outcome's positive or at least provides the certainty and clarity required, like first Quantum could could return to its historic price to have multiple of, of, of one times. The way I'm thinking about it is this. If you mathematically just assume that first Quantum other assets, so everything other than COBRA Panama should be valued at its historic ratio of one times NAV, then then based on first Quantum's current share price of Canadian 1778 per share today.

If you if you put that into the equation, assume the rest is one times they have back out. What is the market assuming your your P NAV attributable to COBRA Panama yesterday for within first Quantum evaluation. When you do that math, you get somewhere in the vicinity of you know point 0.4 to 0.6 times NAV. So, you know, 40 to 60% of the, of the cash flows of the economic potential of COBRA Panama that under the status quo would have gone to 1st quantum are kind of being attributed to,

to 1st quantum today. And what is that like? What does that mean? It, it means that the, the, the market is not willing to give it any, any any more than it than that because of the, the uncertainty associated with it, the potential that they're going to have to see some of it and all those sort of factors. So I think that what investors should be doing and probably are doing is like thinking is that, is that a reasonable, is that a reasonable discount or is it

unreasonable? And I, I, I come to the intuition, well, my, my, my belief is that that's more punitive than, than it should be. This is a phenomenal asset. And, and when I kind of look at the, the, the geopolitical dynamics in, in Panama, I also think it's more likely than not that you'll have, you know, some, some, some clarity around the situation and hopefully an agreement with the government in the near future.

Too, do you think because it's signed effectively, there's a, they're saying that they could potentially lose 40 to 60% of the project, but is that, has there been any numbers put around what they think they might have to say to the government or not? I, I, no, I think, and I think the way that this, like PEP unfolds is there's an arbitration process and there's hearing dates already for an

arbitration process. And Panama's not want to go going to, not going to want to go through the whole, the length of that arbitration process. The, the, the ways that countries do get punished by international arbitration process is something we should cover in future podcasts.

But, but they're actually like very severe things that are imposed upon a country when it goes through international arbitration, including like restrictions around, you know, the World Bank and funding rates and all that sort of stuff. So you don't want to go through all of that. And so you come to a settlement and a settlement like, I'd find it pretty unrealistic that that that first quantum would have to see, I don't know, half of its asset.

I think like 15, twenty, 25%, like could be a settlement ground. But so, you know, and the market just wants certainty as well. So, yeah, I, and I think if you just look at Panama, like where, where it's at, when when she hit the fan, it was a different government in place. So there was a big kind of campaign in the lead up to, to an election which which sort of, you know, culminated in, in, in a lot of protests around this asset.

You remember, it's kind of fittingly Leonardo, Leonardo DiCaprio. He he he protested the the the cobra Panama like for some. Now he's on the Australian bauxite protests. How weird like like. The wolf. The wolf's not happy. Yeah, Leo. There the the company didn't it it, it didn't, I think it admits this as well, you know, in hindsight, do the right things to manage its social engagement with the community. They didn't take the the front

foot of that. And by the time they kind of realized, you know, it was too late. They didn't under score how important what they were doing was for the local community as well as the broader world, you know, and it got away from them before they knew it. Yeah, undoubtedly there were plenty of, you know, plenty of the Panamanian public on the on the side of the the environmentalists and but as of May 2024, change of government elections or Jose Rahul Molino elected as a new president.

And so the government's changed. Plus, the geopolitical layup has has evolved massively since since Trump was elected to in late 2024, Trump expressed his intentions to take back the Panama Canal from the control of the Chinese following a pressure from the United States Black Rock LED consortium that acquired control in key ports near Panama Canal. So this just last week this deal popped up.

It was AUS $19 billion deal where yeah, this consortium acquired a bunch of port assets, including a few a few near Panama. All all of the geopolitical football I felt was just sort of mounting pressure for the for the new president of of Panama. And maybe that deal was a a little bit of relief, but I think the country still needs a

win here. And their local trade partners are clearly, you know, getting a bit more spicy and fierce and Cobra Panama, it is a significant asset in the context of the country, in the context of the, the government revenue generation, not at all compared to the canal itself, Like that's just a phenomenal revenue generator. But it is, it is a significant asset.

And when you read between the lines of the, the commentary that comes out of both like first Quantum and, and Franco Nevada, listen to their, you know, recent quarterly or analyst calls or, or presentations, they always get asked about this because in, in, in Franco Nevada's case, like they've got a giant stream on this asset too.

It sounds, it sounds like, like from just reading between the lines of some of their comments, it sounds like the, the government could even be sort of like pretty supportive of getting a deal done. But there's a, there's a, a process that's got to be done to win the public over on that. This is a, a public campaign to want the, the, the, the will of the, the Panamanians to convincingly want this to be

back in, in production as well. So, you know, that's a good starting point to be, and to get to a, an outcome here. If the, it's, if the population can be won over, then that's it. You know, that'll be, that'll be fantastic. So there's a bunch of things that I haven't discussed or even covered in this brief, brief overview, but they, they're important and I want to do some more work.

And those are things like that arbitration process, what the economic split could, could realistically be like that. What downside case is there if it, if more delays come? And also first Quantum's balance sheet is, is it is stretched they're doing a sell down of their, of a, of a minority interest in, in their Zambian copper mines. That'll help a bit. But there's, yeah, there's like they've got to be able to manage their their balance sheet along

the way too. How do you think that Franco Nevada stream will work if the government take more of a stake of the project and I assume the same X amount of money still has to go to Franco Nevada is that? Franco's unaffected. Yeah, yeah. But but will that really affect First Quantum? They'll have to pay more royalty per project ownership. Or so both? Both both Franco and and 1st Quantum have arbitration hearings. They're like six months apart.

But first, First Quantum's claim is, is, is it will be like the settlement that might happen with First Quantum could be like an an equity split at the project level with the government. But the stream that Franco have is at the asset level. So they'll they'll won't be affected by any kind of. So the government will have to pay them. The the stream will be stay the same. Yeah, yeah.

And there might be some, some, yeah arbitration settlement where where they're going to pay out because of the business interruption that was caused. If it's all have it gotten? I don't know how that works. What? What's the ownership project ownership at the moment? What does the government know? Any. First Quantum has 90%, create a resource group has 10%. Yeah, yeah. Which is the government? No, no, no. So the government hasn't got any correct. OK, but they might do.

Yeah, there is an arrangement with the government that like there was a a royalty that was renegotiated with the government and that was very favourable to 1st Quantum beforehand. But the renegotiation saw a a minimum, I think it was a minimum 375,000,000 that would go towards the the government every single year as a a rigid kind of outcome, which is a positive. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. To under score the importance point that you said Trav, 5% of the GDP of the country was from

this mine. So you know between 30 and 40,000 people employed directly and indirectly. It's enormous. Very good, very good. All that bloody share price talk. 17 bucks a share, 17,000,000 pounds 1717. I'm just bloody. Can't get 7-8 million drill metres out of the ad boys. 17,000,000 The Diamond. Drill bloody count that is growing by the day for Swick 17,000,000. Please let us know when you hit 18. 17 millions. Not could. Couldn't be many more to go.

How many hours do you reckon would take to get 17,000,000 underground drill meters accomplished? Quicker than anyone else the record Breakers, especially those bloody deep X rigs that are five times more powerful that just drill 2000 plus meters plus or say which is you can prove resources all the way to the centre of the earth. Who cares if you can't mind it, it looks good on an ASX announcement. Get them punching 2000 plus meters so. I'm so impressed at at

underground drilling. That can do that mate. It just. I would like everything else. I don't know who else can. So it's just you think diamond drilling underground, you think Swick. It's very easy anyway. Swick, Oh speaking it is some

potential for some 2000 meter holes out here. JD Soulgold, the old Casa Bell mine. Yeah, Casa Bell, they could definitely use a A2 kilometer drill mate because some of the holes they've done in their time

are pretty punchy. I think, I think the company would be pretty familiar to most listeners, but the TSE and LSE listed, it's a also headquartered sort of in in Australia. So they've got sort of strong Aussie roots in the business management is here and everything and they're talking about an ASASX listing at the moment, which we'll get to. But it was, it was revealed overnight that Jiangxi Copper lifted their interest to 12%. And this was done with the support of Soulgold.

So this is like another twist in a, in a really, really interesting corporate history of the company. And people have speculated for a long time now the best part of a decade who is going to actually end up being the owner and who is going to take this thing from being a top quality asset into a mine. And maybe we are maybe we're one step closer to that truth. The stock closed up 20% on the announcement and at one point they were up 34%. So it was a a big bit of news for the.

Company very interesting mate, I there's a lot of history here. There is a lot of history and it is very, very interesting history as well, exploration, corporate sort of battles and everything kind of in between. But I'll run through the most important details. So the company sole Gold gets the concessions from a group called Cornerstone Capital Resources back in 2012, 2014 they have their discovery hole

in a 5 hole program. One of the hits was about 1300 meters at .6% copper and a bit over .5g per tonne gold. So you can see in that picture there they put a nice big landmark for the Canadians so they can understand the the scale of the the project. This is big copper porphyry stuff in the Ecuadorian Andy's we're talking about here. I'll jump forward from there to 2022 and this was a year that

had everything for the company. Early in the year they come out with the PFS, we're talking about $2.9 billion US MPV19 percent IRR with a big $2.7 billion pre production capital cost to build this block cave operation. So we know there's not too many of them going around. They're pretty complex beasts to get into production about. In this period, the company is capped at around a billion plus

Aussie dollars. And if you're, if you were to look now, you're seeing about a $450 million market cap. So not all has been well since that point in time. And even in that year, things were sort of getting pretty shaky. People weren't happy with how long the PFS was taking. There was this invoicing scandal, about 6 or $7,000,000 got got siphoned off. You had ACFO that lasted six weeks in the job and then there was a sort of failed capital raise, so she departed.

You had this ongoing dispute with Cornerstone, the group that had sold the asset to sell gold and for for all these kind of reasons and some more the the stock starts to peel off throughout the year 22 to where we are today. They did manage to consolidate the ownership in the asset. That was an ongoing dispute back end of 2022. They they do a deal with Cornerstone.

They sort of simplify the ownership structure, but Cornerstone still held at that point about 7% of the equity in Salgold. Now with the takeover, this just becomes sort of own shares as they call them that Salgold holds in itself. And they are the exact shares that Jiangxi have bought overnight to bump up their interest to 12%. Yeah, right. So it's like a bloody an unbuy back an unbuy. Back a a buyback that is the. Financial term. Where you don't cancel the shares.

That's, that's exactly what they call it Maddie to, to round out on the, the corporate details. There was a lot happening on this front because they were a takeover target. You know, everyone wants copyright. So BHB and Newcrest, who are 13 1/2 percent shareholders each. But then at the end of that year 22, you get the Cisco royalties come in, they give $50 million to the company in exchange for

0.6% NSR. So they're getting a royalty and the major shareholders are super, super, super pissed off. Like you said when we recorded it the first time. Maddie Sandeep this way it's just speon. It was, it was in the papers every day. Everyone knew about it. Royalties stay on the asset. They are not good for the company that wants to take them out in in the long run. Oh and especially something that

bloody big .6% forever. And it's like why if they were a billion dollars, why they just didn't do a 60 mil capital raise? Yeah, it's bloody. It was out there. It's what you do when you. I don't want to get acquired, Maddie. Yeah. That that's the poison pill A. 100%, I think you know that those actions just best encapsulate the attitude the company had towards progressing the project hugely at odds with the way BHB and the way Newmont

wanted to go about things. And we could talk way more about all the boardroom action there was. There was heaps of it. You had lots of management changes throughout the year, but a lot of that sort of old history now. So we'll we'll leave it there. There was a lot happening on the environmental and the political front in Ecuador, which is worth mentioning.

This created a lot of uncertainty about whether they'd get the permits and all all those sorts of things which created more, you know, negative headwinds for the stock. But you you could sort of come through to 2024 last year they release an updated PFS. They they optimize it and the pre production capital comes down substantially. The economics look a little bit better. They get an exploitation permit. That's not the final mining permit. They can't construct us yet.

They can do some early works, but just another another sort of check of the box. It's a good thing. But then halfway through the year they announced this big streaming deal with the the giants in the space, Franco Nevada, as well as a Cisco. Actually they're giving US $750 million. So 100 bucks up front that's spread over three payments and 650 is for construction when

that happens. So the company doesn't get their hands on the cash just yet, but once they check those boxes, they'll be able to fund a bit over I think 1/3 of the the 1.55 billion pre production capital. So yeah, this one and the royalty before has A to an extent a buyback that you can do within a certain period of time, but they are sort of written in stone and and very hard to to turn around in large.

Then there was some some stuff we should have been paying attention to, like just just last week or the week. Before like we were asleep at the wheel last week when some big changes happened at the company.

So incomes a new CEO and incomes a new chair, this new CEO wasn't a stranger to the company, had been a non exec director since 2022. Before that he's a a long time investment banker in the metals and mining space, had also worked at Matt Copper. And he gives this kind of standard CEO comments in the spiel in the announcement, talks about looking at an ASX listing and maximizing shareholder value. And you sort of read it at a time you're like, yeah, everyone kind of says that.

Let's see if they sort of put it into action with the company. You've got the new chair as well. This is a former Glencore head of strategy and you see those those two gentlemen coming in, you see their track record, their experience and what they're all about.

And I don't think immediately that these are two folks that want to develop a block cave operation in the Andes in South America. This is a super, super complex operation and these guys seem more than capable of what they're doing, but it does actually really speak to a change in mindset in my view. And they talk about restating,

resetting the strategy. They're forming this Explore Co, which is going to have all the other tenements outside of Casket Bell put into it. Some are more developed than others, but they're all got this focus of realizing shareholder value now. That's that's the explore Co setting the stage for the spin out of the ultimate acquisition. You put a put a bow on the rest, mate. Yeah, but that's exactly those are guys there to do it to you

or not to not to build a mind. Yeah, it's, it's, it's all the little sort of signs. So if you look at the the cap table, what the biggest shareholders are in their holdings before this, this screenshot of shows before the Jiangxi announcement, but you've got BHB now at 10%, you've got Newmont at 10% and you've got Jiangxi at 12%. So they're, they're the big holders. You've got three different companies holding 10% plus Jiangxi came in and paid a 45% premium to scoop up that block

of owned shares. So they're clearly pretty keen to do something. They only paid US 18,000,000 for that stock. But again, you're saying just, you know, this is just one week into the job for that new leadership team and they're talking about reshaping the investment proposition. It's, you know, if you're of the persuasion that a deal to be done here is the best outcome as a shareholder, they are saying all the right things to you. And it's, it's a very interesting position.

I reckon now that the company sort of sees itself in because you've got Newmont who've done a big round of divestments of all their non core assets. You've got BHB that last year did the deal with Philo and perhaps are looking at other things and you've got the other big shareholders creeping their way higher. So whether the TSX listing is a bit of a blocker for a Chinese entity remains to be seen. You've got ADFS that should come out in the the not too distant

future. So a bit more solid numbers to be wrapped around the project. But I think you've got a management team in there now that's happy to deal. And I'm I'm pretty intrigued to see where the, where the company and where the stock kind of goes from here. So if you got those three big holders like it looks like I couldn't say BHP or Newmont doing a Chinese JV, that'd be a bit out there, wouldn't it? Or is it well they? They rely heavily on China for a lot of their business.

What would they JV? With them at a project level, do you think, in Ecuador? Jeez. Nothing's nothing's impossible, yeah. So obviously looking at Jen, she looks the favorite for it. JD. Does look like they are the ones most enthusiastic and most keen to do a deal certainly I reckon. Very interesting register. It is yeah. And I, I think I'm pretty sure like Cornerstone was trying to sell themselves or sell their stake before kind of sold it all

became sold golds. And, and I do remember there was like some inability for, for the Chinese to, to buy it back then because that was they, they were I actually think a Canadian domicile country and already had the TSX listing or was the dominant listing and. Yeah, they were Canadian, that's right. Yeah, yeah. Anyway, my read through of that was that you crested BHP kind of went there to do that deal. So it kind of speaks to me.

Like to your point, Maddie, this is, this is on a, on a, there's a ribbon on this for Jiangxi. Yeah, yeah. BHP had been there a long time already, even even by that point they'd been, you know, they would have been sniffing around and holding that stake for for a while. And yeah, maybe they've made their mind up already. Well if they wanted the royalty to scare everyone off, it sure did because it's been as you said, it's depressed and PHP or Newmont haven't done anything with it so.

Yeah, I mean, you can't say the you can't say portions of the board weren't weren't interested in getting the stock up, but they were massive shareholders, right. The former CEO stepped down in 21. There's a lot of drama around that, but you know, I owned a a big slab of stock, so. Yeah, Speaking of Guinea, random links to sorry Ecuador, random links to Ecuador was we know Gina's love for Ecuador. Yep. Do I remember? Roski as.

Well, the ex CEO of this that departed that did the royalty deal that Daryl Kazuba, he ended up at Arafura really is that right? I don't know. I think so. It could be right. Yeah, I didn't know that. Who Jane is a major shareholder of. I think that's right. That is a random link that doesn't link anymore really, because you know, Jane. Jane likes Ecuador. So there you go. Another non exec so. So he was appointed a non exec director before he even became CEO. I think of of Sogold.

There we go. Oh, this is who knows something. There's something there. Speaking of something, history.

I've gone down a random bloody, bloody hypothesis here on the back of exploration results, but this is just lightning. This is what we do. Our band bloody ripped today again. That's a God dollar six that is just being bloody flying that thing they've hit they're well, they're climbing a bit of a greenfields discovery you'd say on their up the up the strike from Riverina 22.7 metres at 5g

and 10.9 at 6.4g. So this like we always talk about the organic potential that gets touted for their Davyhurst tenements and this sort of probably the longest section shows it. Like you look at the Riverina mine and the British line and then they've hit this stuff at little gem, they call it they got sun riser up there.

So 7 odd kilometers of of strike, they're going to test and hence the money they're putting into exploration to, you know, organically grow that project and like, but you look at the the performance and new ad comments previously travel, like, you know, the scripts like value.

They are they going to use it? Like are they going to do a deal and all they're just going to organically grow And you just think of right, if they're going to do a deal, what would what deal would they do to sort of feed the existing infrastructure? They've gotten like the but I don't even know if they do this one because it's too bloody.

The the price on this. Like the first one that came to mind would have been that gorilla gold the the old labyrinth, because they got the stuff down the road from they're at Menzies, the common Vale stuff they got so that'd feed into Riverina and the malware stuff they've got is on the western side of Riverina. But like I just was shocked yesterday when I looked at the market cap, 240 mil fully diluted gorilla cult. I just good. It's like the gold version of encounter again.

It's just absolutely ripping. So for the and I just couldn't see yeah I'm still of the belief I think or a band are probably going to stay organic and just maximize the potential of the drill bit at River Rainer and I'm but then it just thinking on the on the back of the Remelius Spartan chatter obviously

reflected on that whole thing. We had differing views of what Remelius and Spartan the the outcome would be and I'm probably started bloody Lane and your by a bit trapped because I'm thinking God that why do they're going to backfill 240 Miller market cap at gorilla is Simon Lawson will be going from non exact to bloody the MD, which means maybe remelius and Spartan is going to happen and then you look at how much and it. Was given Simon lots of credit

mate. It could, it could derate after that, joking Simon. He'll have to change his number plates. But the, the I was just looking at the share price performance of the gold is today and like everything is ripping other than Ramilis. Like it was, I think it was .7% up when I looked. And the look at this last six months trade between Spartan and Ramilis, they're pretty much back close to par after that.

So I look, maybe that whole, as you said, the magnet thing was the thing that came out to not say nothing's happening. But it's like, yeah, there's a gap here. The if it's going to be in a scheme of arrangement like Remelius stock cheaper is more chance of Spartan accepting, voting in favour of that and getting a lot more, a lot more

control of that. Pro forma it'd be like 55 Remelius, 45 Spartan at these rates around about that whatever the merger ratio is. But it's a yeah, if it does happen, it's going to be a bloody big swing. So yeah, maybe that maybe that is going to happen so. Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding. Ding, yeah, for Spartan so, but I'm thinking that's if both of those things happen. There you go. Who who who knows? We'll wait and we'll wait and see.

Beautiful. Oh God. Well, I'm pretty sure that recorded fuck. Oh good, Bing is crusted. It's all. Right. All right, let the kids pick up sorted so I can actually edit it. Fucking hell, I've never talked about the same thing so many times. Right, I fucking I'll talk about this as same everyday. 100 bucks off Ausi MMM underground operates tickets to link in the show notes.

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