Focusing on fundamentals amid volatility (Matt Fist of Firetrail) - podcast episode cover

Focusing on fundamentals amid volatility (Matt Fist of Firetrail)

Apr 11, 20251 hr 4 min
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Episode description

Matthew Fist, Portfolio Manager of the Firetrail Small Cap fund, breaks down how he’s making sense of markets, his preference to focus on bottom-up fundamentals in times of macro volatility, and how he’s positioning the fund across commodities, including detailed thoughts on a host of gold, copper, lithium and uranium miners.

 

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Chapters:

(0:00) Introduction

(3:01) How to feel about markets right now

(11:58) Impact of a trade war?

(15:45) Lithium reflections from China visit

(19:23) Lithium exposure interest

(22:58) GOLD bullishness

(24:20) Genesis (GMD)

(30:46) Greatland Gold (GGP)

(34:54) PRU, WAF

(36:23) Management and Balance sheet

(40:27) Bellevue (BGL) and Spartan (SPR)

(45:00) Gorilla Gold (GG8)

(46:19) AIC Mines (A1M) and Sandfire (SFR)

(49:23) Aurelia (AMI)

(50:54) Cobar consolidation? (PEX)

(52:24) Nexgen (NXG)

(56:16) Boss (BOE) and Paladin (PDN)

(59:12) Met coal and Whitehaven (WHC)

 

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Transcript

Introduction

They've got close to $100 million of net cash on the balance sheet. They've got a huge amount of production growth coming up from a high quality asset. We see that business generating 100 million bucks of free cash flow on what is today an EB of 250 with a substantial.

Mine mine. Happy Friday, money miners, and what a Friday it is because you always upload a long form conversation and Jonas and a Dick darling, you've, you've managed to get hold of none other than Matthew Fist, AKA Fisty, who we had the pleasure of interviewing like like a year ago with, with the live wire guys. And that was just a, a pleasure. But you, you managed to to pin him down while you're in Melbourne. What did you talk about? Yeah, it is hard to believe.

It had been almost a year since we we spoke with him mate and a lot's happened and he he made some pretty prescient calls back then, which I'm sure was music to his ears for for me to repeat to him. But we covered a hyperground. We, we started with the macro, but 50 really works from the, from the bottom up finding, finding stocks in that small cap space. So yeah, it's, it's hard to miss all the disruptions that have happened across the commodity world and the, the trade war going on.

So we get into that a bit and then we spoke a good bit about the Goldies, which I'm sure people will be keen to hear about his, he's long and strong, a few of the names that we speak about quite regularly. And then the, the, the conversation sort of ebbed and flowed its way through lithium, uranium. We've obviously touched on next Gen. when we spoke with him quite some time ago. And yeah, a bit sort of happened on that one and kind of everything in between. So plenty for the the money

miners to to dig into in this conversation. 50 Of course, yeah, a portfolio manager at Fire Trail, but he used to be, didn't he used to be a geologist? Yeah, Geo scientists at at BHB of all stomping grounds. Geo scientists, not Geo. Well I'm I'd still be familiar with this problem that that geos and drillers have. I'm sure you know when the drill rig is just chewing through bits faster than you can order replacements.

I hear it is a nightmare mate. I think you're on to something and there's one company that springs to mind mate. Black Diamond Drilling Services. BD Drill, our newest partner with pumped to promote these guys. They are the go to name for consumables. So born and bred in Perth, got an office in Sudbury, Canada, distribution hubs all across the world, even your old stomping ground. Trev Kalgoorlie. These guys are known newbies, 30 years in the industry.

They are leading the pack at what they do. They are. They manufacture over 600,000 drill bits a year I hear. And it's all under strict QA testing. It doesn't stop at bits. We're talking down the whole hammers, drill pipes, Subs, casing systems, even complete drill rigs. Plus every accessory you can dream of. Mate what what the BD drill not do? It does get better though mate, their gear goes the distance.

It means fewer change outs, lower costs for your operation and that is one of the reasons why these guys have won contracts with the FM, JS of the World, Rios, Newmont's and heaps more. And here is the kick out. They keep inventory on site and backups in their other hubs, so you are never going to have downtime if you're using BD

How to feel about markets right now

Drill. Lower cost per meter drill making up the team at BD Drill. Drill smarter, not harder. JD, let's RIP into you. All right, Matthew, Fist from Fire Trail. It's been a hell of a past couple weeks in market so I thought I'd start this conversation, but just gauging the temperature and seeing what the emotions have been like and what the the feeling amongst junior portfolio managers has been like over this little period. Yeah, it's certainly been

eventful. Never a dull moment waking up to to something new every day. At the moment, as you know, I think we're measured, we're pretty calm and collected and we're just taking everything in our stride. I think heading into this period, there was a real sense of complacency in the market. Some people were pretty comfortable with high price earnings multiples.

And I still think there's quite a bit of complacency in the people who are expecting a lot of these tariffs to be wound back or policy positions reversed. We're certainly not approaching our portfolio like that or any of the stocks in our portfolio. We're assuming that this is very much the status quo and and making decisions on that basis. But yeah, as with all market dislocations, this is what we, this is what we get paid for. This is what we love doing.

And there's a lot of very, very good companies on sale both in in resources and industrials. So it's the onus is on us as portfolio managers to to make the right decisions now that will drive returns over the next three years. So it's a, it's a great time to be in markets. Yeah, I'm keen to keen to dive into what you said at the end

there. You know, companies being on sale, how are you seeing and maybe you just clarify upfront for the listeners that you're running a small cap fund, so your benchmark is the sort of 300th to 100th biggest company companies. That's right. Yeah. I spend about 30% of my time on resources. So, yeah, very much looking across the broader market as well.

And how are you seeing sort of valuations amongst that subset amongst that subset versus the the bigger names in Australia and even down the bottom end where you sometimes sort of pick a story, be nice and early? I mean, if you believe current market forecasts, then valuations are cheap in resources and in small caps relative to large.

But the EE or the earnings is wrong clearly for many companies out there at the moment and that's what the market's telling us. So we can talk about price to earnings multiples for cyclical companies across the ASX or in resources. But given what's transpired over the past couple of weeks, those earnings estimates need to come down substantially. And you know, who knows where where they'll land, but it's very hard to have a Fairview on on valuation in these sort of markets.

What you can do and what we do is focus on on good balance sheets and earning certainty. So identifying those companies that do have any certainty because they're they're going to be rare in this sort of environment. And, and you guys sort of by by nature a bottom up, you're focused on picking out the companies, right, that you think, you know, resources might be a bit different, but in the industrial space, the ones that from the from the ground up have

have good earnings. How much time do you actually spend on the macro? Like it can be pretty tempting just to to spend all day, you know, reading what Trump's doing what best and what's happening at a macro level. How do you sort of divide your time at the moment? Yeah, we don't look at the macro at all. It's very important to understand, you know where the temperature of the markets are, you know hear what you're up against from a macro perspective.

But we are all bottom up when it comes to resources and industrials as well. And we're always looking at valuation relative to market. We don't take a view on cash versus fixed income versus equities. We're always 100% equity market exposed. And as much as possible what we try and do is eliminate any sort of thematic risk in our portfolio. So we're very fortunate in small caps.

We can have a portfolio with with very high tracking error or very different to the benchmark and we don't need to take factor bets. So we don't need to be long momentum growth value. We don't need to take massive bets on industrials versus resources. We can have a very active and high performing portfolio just with stock specific risk and that's what we're really focused on. And is that the core of what we

do? So stepping away from resources for a moment, if we look at your portfolio, where are you sort of underweight slash overweight, I know you'd said in the past that that benchmark is sort of 30 odd percent resources, right? And you're about on track. If we look across the the spectrum, where are you? Yeah, that, that's right.

Yeah. So dominated by gold at the moment as as you and all your listeners will be aware, the gold sector on our numbers, just looking at the latest numbers this morning, up to 16% or just over 16% of the small orders index is gold and roughly 30% is resources. We are pretty much in line with that on a on a benchmark basis. We're not trying to take a view here on yeah, macro, macroeconomic factors as we've talked about.

But within that we have a huge amount of conviction in the particular stocks where we've selected and their ability to outperform both in in resources and and gold and energy as well. And and just to, to understand your style a bit more, how do you sort of view a a trading mindset versus a buy and hold? Yeah. You know what, What might your turnover be over a kind of year? How do you think about that? Turnover for us is an outcome. So we're not looking to make

decisions based on on turnover. We don't try and target a certain turnover. If the stock reaches our valuation and we do have very, very strong views on valuation, then we will sell. Typically over the last five or ten years that we've been running the same strategy, turnovers mean about 100% per annum, but that will spark materially in times like this where we have a lot of market volatility and if there's a lot of equity capital market

activity as well. I'm I'm curious to just to, to learn about the, the fun and sort of, you know, beating, beating your benchmark, which is obviously what you you strive to do. You've done well at that so far. How does it play in with, say, companies that are that are falling? There's a few in the the resources space that that spring to mind and also the the rises. My understanding is that you can play outside the bounds of the the benchmark a bit to yeah to the to the upside of your your

unit holders. Absolutely, Yeah. So as you said, the ASX small words index which is is our benchmark is ASX 300 to 100. We're very happy to to play below that and we see a huge amount of opportunity in the market cap stocks as you know particularly in mining, it's a very inefficient market. It's under researched and that that is that is just amazing and we can generate a huge amount of

excess returns there. I think in resources that's particularly been the case in the past couple of years in the gold sector in particular. And then we can also choose to invest in in the mid caps if we want so that ASX 51 to 100 we can take positions in that part of the market pretty rare for us. But you know, we absolutely will invest there and hold stocks that RIP through the small wards and into that mid cap part of the market if we still see some

good valuation upside. And in, in terms of sort of hedging risk at the moment, I'm kind of curious it's, it brings to mind everyone's sort of talking about it at the moment. You hear a couple people that might have called it and they get all the plaudits. You know, it's kind of few and far between. But do you think about that at all? I know you mentioned before that you don't actually hold a cash pole yet you're fully invested. How do you think about hedging risk?

Is it purely from a basis of picking good companies? When, when you say risky, talking about equity market risk, yeah, yeah. So we, we take the view that if people are allocating to our fund, they want equity market risk, they want small cap exposure and we'll deliver that to them. We'll leave it for asset allocators to decide if they want to be in cash fixed income. But if they're invested in our fund, then we take the view that they're paying us to be fully invested in equities.

And that's what we deliver. At times like this, we do have a slightly higher cash component of the portfolio. So typically we'd run 3 to 4% cash at the moment or as of this morning anyway we're sitting at about 5%. So slightly overs versus the long term historical average, but that's fully covered with with futures. So it's a hundred 100% market exposed at all times. Yeah. And where we sit sort of today, are you, are you getting itchy to to deploy that extra bit of

capital? Absolutely. Yeah. It's, it's always tempting, but I think in times like this, sometimes the hardest thing is, is to do nothing for a period of time and, and just let the dust settle. There's a massive amount of uncertainty out there and there are a huge amount of opportunities. It's pretty important to separate our resources here, I think from the rest of the market because clearly, you know, resources have their own own characteristics that are quite unique.

But we are very, very excited about some of the opportunities that are presenting themselves at the moment. And as we talked about prior to this of being in WA and, and Adelaide in the past couple of days, meeting companies, which I won't tell you who they are for obvious reasons, but you know, share prices down 3040% in the last month alone, you know, and we'd love to earn them at a point in time. Unfortunately, them being down 30 or 40% doesn't really single

them out too much in the moment. Yeah. So let's let's talk resources, right, let's let's talk

Impact of a trade war?

commodities and kind of trace how the the broader macro is really playing into the the resources. So I think the, you know, the obvious connections are terrorists bad China hurts the biggest consumer of commodities globally and that can really hurt Australia. We've started to see it in iron ore, which had a bit of a delayed response. We've seen it amongst some other sort of commodities, some more dramatic than others.

But what what do you make of the the notion that this trade war will cause a slowdown for China that's really going to hurt the Australian economy? I'm concerned about it, yeah. I think it'd be remiss of anyone not to be, you know, as an Australian, as an investor in resources as well. But I think you need to, you know, just take a step back here and and look at the macro and the context of the individual

companies. We can invest in that position on the cost curve and what that means for longer term prices. The moves we're seeing in copper, zinc, aluminium in my view over the past 3-4 days or three, four trading sessions I should say, don't really reflect in our view the fundamentals of what is a pretty tight supply and demand, fundamentally tight supply and demand market. And they're more driven by financial market participation, which is, you know, speculating

on a global growth slowdown. And that's that is what it is. But what I'd say, you know, China is the most important consumer of, of all commodities, just about particularly the ones that Australia produce. And over the last 20 years, if there's ever been a slowdown in the global economy or, or in the US, they have not hesitate, not hesitate to stimulate their domestic economy through construction and property and infrastructure. This will be no different.

The Chinese government started that I think in September last year. I think we caught out last in, you know, late in the year after I just got back from China in November, Robert was hitting the the road then they've continued that and accelerated, accelerated post the US election. And this is only going to add

further fuel to the fire. So, you know, I'd say don't get don't, don't get too negative and particularly don't get too negative on steelmaking commodities like Coke and Cola and on. Or. And yeah, in reality sense, they could actually be set up pretty well. You're a cool head Fisty.

I'm keen to dive into that more the, the stimulus part, because one of the arguments that was made at the at the time September when Chinese equity markets rallied really, really hard, sort of 30% over the space of the week was that a lot of that stimulus was sort of monetary and basic kind of financial assets as opposed to being fiscal that's going to, you know, kick start property development infrastructure.

Do you anticipate now that we're going to we're going to see more of this fiscal type stimulus that tries to kind of spur demand for for commodities as opposed to more monetary side stimulus? Or look, yeah, I'm trying not to get in the prediction game too much, even though that's my. Job. Yeah, you're reaching the limits of my macroeconomic prediction skills here.

But let's comment about what we're actually seeing on the ground right now because that's what we can observe and what we can make decisions on as portfolio managers and investors. And what we're seeing, whether it's apartment sale numbers, machinery sales, industry numbers, we're seeing, you know, double digit increases year on year up to 20 to 30% in some in some cases.

So last year when we were sitting here talking about potential stimulus in the Chinese economy, it was really reading the the policy tea leaves about what could potentially come now. Now we're seeing that hit the ground and it's not, you know, speculative anymore. This is, this is really happening and absent what's happened in the past week in terms of macro shocks, we think the commodity sector was was set up extremely well just on that

Lithium reflections from China visit

basis, Lauren and we're going to see further, further stimulus come through. Very curious to hear as well from your, your visit there late last year, what, what were the other sort of takeaways, whether they be sort of specific to certain commodities or across the board where they were the things that just you didn't kind of realize were as big a trend or anything else that really stuck in the mind. Gosh, that's thinking about. Put you on the spot.

I have to say it was a pretty good trip in terms of terms of read throughs and yeah, the insights that we got. We spent a lot of time, a lot of time in the lithium market, visiting some mines in a couple of different provinces, going to some car factories. And yeah, I came away amazed that they're able to mine some of the grades that they do mine over there and then, you know, do that at a cash cost that makes sense at current prices or slightly above.

And the fact that those car and battery raw material supply chains are all within a very confined in a confined space. And so you're going from mining lithium, even though it's low grade to producing a battery to producing a car, you know, confined geographic area with cheap energy, cheap later labor

and very good technology. And, you know, the competitiveness of the, the Chinese auto sector and, and even their lithium mines, I think is something that we're going to have to learn to grapple with because we're, you know, the, the, the WA mines, they're the high cost ones, I think when you take into account all the transport and that sort of stuff. So that was, that was a really

interesting insight. And as anyone who's seen the BYD cars driving around the road so recently, we've seen those, those sales explode everywhere. Everywhere. Yeah. And they're pretty good. They're pretty good. One of my colleagues, Blake's got one, He's got the sea lion loves it. And you know, that is just going to be a continuation of of, I think we're just in the infancy of that. Yeah, it's crazy. You saw the the BYD shark as well. Six best seller in Australia

year to date. I think that's yeah. I mean, we don't quite have the same tariffs the the rest of the world has, but you can see why it's such a important part because the competitiveness is is through the roof, right?

Absolutely. Yeah. I think it's potentially a byproduct of what we're seeing at the moment in global markets is really going to be of the benefit to Australian consumers if we're able to access cheap Chinese EVs and cheap goods that otherwise might have gone to the US. On on the topic of EVs, taking a step back, how do you view the the energy transition trend? This was sort of all the rage over the sort of 2020 to 23 ish

kind of period. You know, resource investors were not excluded from that by any means. You know, they were sort of leading the leading the charge, but it's sort of been been dialed back as other other issues come to the fore. How do you how do you see the broader narrative at the moment? I think it's progressing as as we forecast AV sales have been volatile, but they're increasing

penetration globally. Yeah, everything else that I see, stationary storage is increasing rapidly and is going to become a huge driver of lithium demand and maybe even overtake EVs in time. So yeah, I think it's progressing. What's really changed is just the supply side dynamics. We've gone from a chronically undersupplied market in many of those raw materials to now being oversupplied and a huge part of that's come from Africa and China, and that's just fundamentally changed the game.

So no, no issues on the demand side of the equation. It's all about supply for me. And what did it sort of leave

Lithium exposure interest

you thinking about maybe a few of your exposures in the in the lithium basket in the in the portfolio coming back. Some of these names are are notably shorted, not to the same extent they were last year, but have you, have you taken a sort of against the grand view on them? No, we've, we've been pretty cautious on that sector for a

while. I'd say we're starting to get pretty interested though, I mean, again, taking back to the actual companies rather than getting too caught up in the macro companies like IGO, which we don't own at the moment, but even at current prices generating huge amounts of free cash flow from Greenbushes. Yeah, that that, that is sort of hidden if it within different corporate structures and reinvestment in the asset at the moment.

But yes, companies like that, there's potentially some real really, really good valuation opportunities emerging. Remain very cautious on on the higher cost producers. We think you are going to need to be able to compete at lithium prices at or around these levels. But if you can find an asset like Greenbushes that's generating good cash at current prices with the potential for a rebound, then to us that's when we start to get excited from an

investment standpoint. And no one's talking about lithium. So it's always a good time to invest right when it's gone from being hated to no one's even talking about it. Yeah, yeah, low on the cost curve tends to be the, the safer way. Just to just to expand for a second on, on what you said though with, with the kind of harsh realization that we in Washington are much higher, you know, on aggregate and the cost curve than what we what we kind of thought we were.

Is there any other kind of projects that start to tempt you or is it a, is it a bit touch and go and you got to kind of see where we where prices sort of sit and whether these companies can really pull in prices anymore? I think there's some, there's going to be some really hard decisions that need to get made in the next 612 months for some of these assets. And I think some of them probably need to go in to carry on maintenance to see the market

rebalance. Yeah, when sort of go into which assets or anything like that. But yeah, I think, yeah, Australia is at the top end of the cost curve at the moment and some of the assets here probably do need to to to idle to see the market rebalance. How do you think about Aussie

cost competitive more broadly? Not not being specific to the, to the lithium names, but it's something we'd spoken about on the show quite a bit lately with the, you know, the futurization of mines, the automation and, and all these sorts of things. But you've got very real sort of political kind of challenges, you know, for the for the cost structure of Australian mining

more broadly. Are there are these sort of concerns pretty pressing for you or that you think that there's sort of shorter term quieter noises at the moment?

Yeah. I mean, it's, it's not what I focus on, but as a, you know, as a participant in, in the market and someone who's really passionate about the mining sector, I think that we really need to invest and we need to have the right settings from a, a political and a a social perspective to continue to enable the mining sector to keep on delivering the fantastic windfall benefits that it's delivered really, you know, since the 1800s to, to Australia. And it's really concerning to me

when I go to places overseas and see their cost structures, the amount of infrastructure they have, and then to come back and see some of our sectors here. And you know, yeah, it, it makes me concerned as as an investor as well. Yeah, for sure. Let's let's talk about gold.

GOLD bullishness

So you, you said it's not towards 16% of the of the, the benchmark that you follow and you know, equally a big part of your portfolio and I've sort of dug into it quite a bit. But do you consider yourself a gold bull at all? Or are you just working again from from the bottom up and picking companies you like and. Projects you like I'm a genesis bull I. Might hear that. So I mean, we we very, very much take the view that gold is a

currency, not a commodity. Against that backdrop, it's very hard to have a fundamental view on supply and demand, although you can try, people do, but we're we're confident in our ability to try and pick stocks within that. Well, obviously when we're assessing valuation, we'll put in a range of different assumptions and, and look at what that spits out, including forward curves, broker estimates and spot as well and make our decisions on that view.

But we're making decisions on a sector relative perspective from a sector relative perspective. So you know for the top holdings in our portfolio at the moment in the gold space, great land gold in Genesis, we see 50% upside ish route to the rest of the sector for those companies if they deliver what we think they can over the next three years. And so that's the basis on on which we invest and hold them, not a a top down view on the the gold press all.

Genesis (GMD)

Right, let's let's dig into it some more. So, so Genesis, you've been a fan for for quite some time. Riley and the team have done a a pretty stellar job since they grabbed the wheel, you know, 3-3 or four years ago. Now that we go through it, you, you know, you obviously highlighted a, a pretty bullish outlook. I think you've got a much sort of stronger view on, on Tower Hill getting getting mined before I guess consensus does.

You've got, you know, bullish views on each meal getting expanded as well in in due course. Can you can you go into a bit more detail on on why you are such a fan of the company? Yeah, sure. I mean, it's very simple, Genesis. In my view, there's 15,000,000 oz or so of resources and three in reserves and 3,000,000 ounces in reserves.

The company in our view at the moment is being valued on a base case plan whereby the company produces at 325,000 oz into perpetuity or thereabouts and extracts that 3,000,000 oz. Given what's happened with the gold price in the past 1218 months, even before that, that's just not a realistic scenario at all. If you look through Janice Genesis recent quarterly announcements, you can see very clearly that they're building or stockpiles, they're building inventory. They are they are meal

constrained at the moment. When you've got that much inventory again 15,000,000 ounces of high quality inventory and you're meal constrained, there is only one thing that you do to to extract the cash flows bring for that MPV for shareholders and that is to expand meals. And so yeah, well, so yeah, I don't know. I strongly suspect that there'll be meal expansions both at Leonora and at Laverton in the next 12/18/24 months.

And that will enable, you know, the company to bring forward Tower Hill Australia and a number of other assets as well that are currently not factored in by the market. And that will, yeah, consequently result in more production, more cash flow and a higher valuation. And we think the market's just just really playing catch up here. Pretty compelling. How do you, how do you anticipate the financing of of the expansions with sort of cash and time that they'll build up?

Do you foresee, I mean, we've, we've spoken in the past about your views on, on companies with, with debt just to sort of round out the argument on, on Genesis? Yeah, it's it'll all be self funded if generating very strong cash flows given the gold price at the moment. I think that's probably one thing that really has changed in

the past 12 months. And then the company will tell you this is they were prepared to take on debt over the next couple of years to to invest in those growth projects. There is no need for debt now, certainly no need for equity. And so we expect that to be all self funded and and as a consequence it will have a great per share impact.

Genesis, if you guys are thinking of expanding your plant or any other miners out there, if you've got work that requires the best engineering capabilities the industry has to offer, it's time to call that the big guns, Quattro Project Engineering. JD These guys don't just engineer projects, they make everything run smoother.

It's true mate, Quattro works at the surface, They work underground, from blue sky concepts through to the DFS construction and keeping the whole thing running without a hiccup to your operations. They'll design it, engineer it, source the gear, build the thing. Commissioner. Talk about expertise, JD. Mate, if you're a minor out there, you might be expanding your plant, you might be modernizing the circuit, or just tired of projects that drag on way longer than they should.

Talk to the crew that actually gets the job done. Jeremy Palmer and the whole team at Quattro Project Engineering. Engineering experts, no headaches. Go Quattro. And I think the the sort of logical next place people would take that sort of debate is when they have expanded meals, where where do they look around just to just to fill it out if if need be. I know you've said they've got a a ton in in resource and and reserve already. Do you do you have a strong view

here? If you speak to rally, say there's no need for for M and AI know he's you know can can make up his own mind. But how do you view that debate? I think it'll be assessed logically and if there's opportunities that make sense for shareholders such as ourselves and the management team who are highly aligned in in their equity ownership with the company, then they'll look

to execute on them. And you know, companies like Magnetic Lock, Focus Lock, Bright Star, there's even some Anglo assets in that part of the world that I think could be interesting. Yeah, there's a huge amount of value to be created and unlocked and we'd support that. The obvious question I'm sure you'll ask me is on is on Vault. You said it just to preempt that, you know, I just don't see it. I don't see the relative valuation stacking up too well at the moment from a Genesis

perspective. I think if the vault portfolio, I was, you know, singularly focused on that, that king of the Hills asset potentially that's when it starts to look more interesting from a Genesis perspective. But you know, back when there was a lot of speculation about that occurring, the gold price is much lower. And what that means in practical terms is the value of the mill

was much higher. So now Genesis can go out and you know, build or expand their meals for a normal value of money compared to the the excess returns or the cash flow it's going to generate. Back then the value of that meal was was much higher in my view. So I think a lot's changed

there. I think at a point in time potentially, but I think there's a lot more smaller and more value of creative deals to be done 1st and they also have to be assessed in light of what we talked about earlier with with their own portfolio. So, yeah, I expect them to be to be active in in the coming years and and that will form part of the part of the growth. What they really need in my view is some more grade around Laverton.

So if if there was an asset that added some grade 2-3 grams per tonne to that meal, that could really, really see it. Yeah, produce some fantastic cash flows and also oxide material as well. So they acquired an asset called Bruno Lewis, good amount of oxide in there.

As many will know oxide goes through the mill much faster than typical Hard Rock or. And so you meal capacity, whilst it might be 3.3 on paper or whatever the number is, you know you can often get up to 25% more if you're feeding oxide material. So that's another lever for some value creation there. You mentioned great land before

Greatland Gold (GGP)

as well and you, you did a write up not too long ago calling it the the deal of the decade and I think you, I think you added that have you, Ron is the best undeveloped resource in Australia. Am I right? I have had some people try and correct me on that since, but something about to stand by it, something about an iron ore asset, I'm not sure, but yeah, sure, I'll stand by it, yeah. Let's let's talk about the deal, right. So yeah, by by all accounts, it's it's been a pretty cracking

deal. But firstly, just curious to hear it. It is still UK listed at at the moment, but you've been able to with the anticipation that it comes here in, in the June quarter get in already. Yeah, that's right. So we can invest up to 10% of our funds in what we call pre IPO opportunities, fits comfortably in that sleeve. Currently, I'm listed as you say and looking to list here June, July as we understand it, which we think will be fantastic for Aussie investors to be able to

invest in Telfer and everyone. It's an amazing asset. For sure. And the, the, the natural question that that comes to mind is 20 million tons per annum at at Telfer. Obviously there's, there's a, a mine plan in place, a 15 sort of month mine plan that they've put forward already that is, is meant to spit out sort of over 400,000 gold equivalent oz, a bit under 400,000 gold oz.

And you know, the, the expansion sort of starts to to happen after that heavier on in in due course should come online. But how do you think they go about filling that meal? Do you do you have any reservations about it? Do you think from the offset there they're going to be filling it or doing a train, train and a half type thing? Yeah, I think the processing solution is still up in the air.

There's still work happening to determine what the the best outcome is and the company will go through that engineering process. None of this stuff happens overnight. But what is very clear and was not clear to the market 612 months ago is that there is not going to be a production gap between Telfra and Have You On. That was a big concern that they'd have to idle both trains.

There wouldn't be any free cash flow or production for a number of years whilst Haver On was being developed based on their recent resource update, mine plan update to a certain extent that is yeah, completely off the table. We and I think they'd be able to produce from Telfer at an annualized run rate of over 300,000 oz per annum of gold equivalent for the next 10 years based on the open pit stockpiles there as well as Telfer underground proper and West home

underground. So we see that asset continuing to generate very healthy cash flows that will then fund Haver on to your point around Genesis earlier and what really creates value and resources that that self funding is, is is fantastic. Yeah. And they've got pretty hefty stockpiles as well, some some low grade, some some higher grade as well. That should help them ease their kind of way through that.

How do you, how do you kind of benchmark their, their value obviously sort of 400,000 ounces is it's a decent amount. I think last time I looked in Aussie dollar terms they kept at 2.7 or 2.8 ish. Dear, you know, you mentioned an upside there 50% before. Is that is that kind of how you think and how they should play in the in the Aussie market?

Absolutely. I think it gets rewrited when it lists here based on where it's currently trading and and people getting more comfort around the sustainability of the production profile at Telford. There's still work to do there, but the the cards are out. When we look at valuation for a company like that, we'll assess it on a range of different

metrics. Ultimately it's MPV, but in this case you need to look at the sum of the parts MPV for the existing Telfer asset and then have everyone at the back end given that it's not currently contributing to cash flows or production. So that's the way we assess it. We give a value to Telfer for the for the operations there that 300,000 oz or so over the next couple of years and then layer and have everyone over the top of that.

If we, if we look at some of the other sort of major gold companies in your, your sort of ballpark you, you've said in the

PRU, WAF

past that you, you don't hold Perseus and Wolf and you know, for, for jurisdiction risk, right. But these companies have, you know, today they've performed pretty, pretty strongly. But if you, if you look around that part of the world, there's, there's been some pretty big losses on, on companies that, you know, didn't draw the the right straw. So to say in in West Africa. How much of an ingrained view is that? Is there, is there a point where where value kind of beats out on

these sorts of things? What's your sort of thinking toward African and. Jurisdictional risk, generally, we have an attitude across the market that we see. Every single stock is an opportunity for our investors as long as it meets a certain base level of criteria with respect to things like ESG and, and alignment of the board and the management team. And so we never rule anything

out, never rule anything out. We just haven't felt the need to invest there given the the plethora of opportunities available in in Australia and in particular in WA. Yeah, continue to meet with those companies. Jeff and and Richard have done amazing jobs and added a huge amount of value, added massive amounts of cash to the balance sheet. You just can't ignore no matter

where the asset's located. And you know, from our end of the situation, it seems like they're going to continue to do so. So if we'll continue to meet with them, if they start to stack up, maybe when Genesis hits 8 box or something, we'll we'll look at if we redeploy that capital somewhere else. Very interesting you, you speak

Management and Balance sheet

a lot to quality management and you just mentioned it there again with with two teams that have demonstrated you've backed it in in Genesis and a host of other names. I guess the way I'd frame this question is you've, you've been, you've been a manager of money for, you know, the better part of a sort of decade and in the, the finance world for, you know, 15 odd years or so. How has the the thinking toward backing proven management teams changed over that journey?

Yeah, I think there's two things that I I value more highly the the further I go in my investing career and that is a good balance sheets and good management teams or conservatively managed balance sheets, I should say. Yeah, cannot be overstated. And you know, just knowing that you have a team that's highly aligned, highly competent and you can believe what they say is, is just yeah, it's a non

negotiable for us and investing. And that's why we find that a lot of our portfolio is invested in companies both within the industrial space and resources where management are long term owners of the business, have significant skin in the game and you know have been there for a decent period of time as well. And the, and the point on debt is, is super fascinating, right?

And it, and it feels more sort of, kind of it rings louder than, you know, than ever right now with everything that we've seen, like the, the speed at which share prices can, can fall, commodities can, can fall. I know you said it when we, when we spoke in, in Sydney a year or so ago, but a super, super clean balance sheet was your, your outlook in particular for, for

single asset companies. I'm, I'm just keen to, to hear you expand on that because I think it's a, a point that's not often well enough appreciated across the market. I'm keen to learn more about it myself. I think, you know, corporate finance one O 1 will tell you that leverage is good and that it increases the equity IRR on a project in in reality that that doesn't work. And that particularly doesn't work in resources. And particularly when you have single asset resource companies,

as you have highlighted. It's not to say it will never work, but you know, the track record speaks for itself. It's it's good for for one set of people. And that's the people that raise money, the investment banks, because they get multiple cracks of the cherry whenever this plays out. And so, yeah. I need to say where we're recording this interview from. That's right. Shout out to it.

But yeah, so for, you know, we'd much rather companies, particularly with interest rates where they are at the moment, you know, pick up the phone, call us. We're here to provide equity. And you know, we, we don't want to see hedging, we don't want to see commodity or financial risk or leverage on top of commodity price risk and operating risk as well. We, we just don't think it's needed or appropriate in many instances. And so it's a key, yeah, red, red flag for us, I suppose.

Yeah. The the point on hedging is when I want to tap into as well it yeah, it it ebbs and flies with the commodity price. And right now it's, you know, it's not in in fashion to have a, a big hedge book, that's for sure. What do you make of the, the trend of people actually, you know, buying them out? You've got it. Say there's a company you're invested in that that has a hedge book. Are you a fan of them cancelling that out?

How do you think about? It, yeah, I mean it's easier to say you're not a fan of hedges when the gold price is ripped and they're on the nose. They definitely have a place from a from a risk perspective. And I think they've been used very effectively in the past by companies like Evolution who acquired assets, put in place hedging, paid it out.

Did a great job. But you know, philosophically at the moment if you're investing in a gold company, it's because you want exposure to to the gold price. And I think having a management team that might have actively bet effectively against the gold price through a hedging profile is a little bit counterintuitive. So unless there's debt involved, which goes to our earlier point, I really don't see the need for it.

Bellevue (BGL) and Spartan (SPR)

Let's talk about a couple other Goldies. Some of them have quite a bit of hedging in place. I want to talk about Bellevue and tie in Spartan and Remelius. You made the call when we spoke and I think you're going to love hearing this. I mentioned it to you just before, but you, I think the way you sort of framed it was in about 3 or so years. Let's have a look again at what the grade is between Bellevue and the grade at Spartan is.

And looking back, I can't remember if Pepper had been discovered or not at that point in time. But obviously Spartan has gone from strength to strength. And I'll disclose that I own a couple Spartan. But the, the other side of the coin there on, on Bellevue that that companies had a bit of trouble. They, you know, they paid down a portion of their, their debt, but ramp up is hard single asset companies and, and all that, like you, you mentioned before. What's your, what's your view on

Bellevue? You know, I'll disclose maybe this interview comes out later, but they're in trading halt right now when we're recording this this interview. They're in an interesting position, right? They're they're one of the weakest performers today versus their, their benchmark. But that does, to an extent, make them attractive, right? Absolutely, Yeah, I mean, we're all waiting to see what happens there.

We're not currently, currently shareholders, but we we know the guys really well, got a lot of respect for them. They've created a lot of value. It's looks like a great ore body. And so there's potentially an opportunity there. I think just in terms of what we'd really like to see from from that company from a disclosure perspective is what's changed with the ore body is it seems to be that there's the ore body that they thought was there fundamentally potentially is a bit different.

And so, yeah, it's hard to at this point in time have confidence in in production targets and things like that without a recut in terms of stoke sizes dilution, you know, is a great appropriate, other modifying factors appropriate all that sort of stuff. So we'll look forward to engaging with the company in in hopefully the coming weeks or, or days and, and forming a view on that. And if there's a potential opportunity.

I think there absolutely is. Yeah, that was my view sort of, you know, before them going into trading halt. There's been a production downgrade since then. But you know, the odd body is still there, an all time high gold price environment. They've got debt, they've got hedging that needs to be cleared. So we look at situations like this is a fantastic opportunity for our investors. Yeah, it's, it's an interesting

one. I'm very keen to see how they they come out of this situation on on the flip side, we've got Spartan who just tied up the deal came to hear your thoughts on on what you make of the, the deal and the the sort of pro

forma entity moving forward. Yeah, I think Simon Lawson and, and the Spartan guys have to be congratulated for, you know, not manufacturing, but you know, delivering such a great amount of value to shareholders and then rolling into Remelius and, and, and the value creation that they've seen since then. Very rarely do you get 2 entities combined or merge like that and, and see the share price perform as well as it has.

And I think that's a real credit to Zappy and, and Simon, the way they've communicated that to the market and so on and so forth. We we don't own either at the moment, but. There might actually be synergies in this deal. Yeah, who knows, But yeah, it was an obvious one that had to happen. And it's good to say. It's good to say logical deals happen, is the thing I'd say there, yeah. And if we look across the gold space, M&A discipline has sort of been a theme of the minus.

It's been sort of hammered into them since, since I guess the, the downfall of the 2012 cycle that that peeled off. And you know, you can sort of say that for the, the mining sort of complex more more broadly, but we have started to see more and more deals in, in the gold space. What do you make of the, the trend for, for these bigger now kind of mid cap dealers? Do you, do you see it playing through to the, the smaller end? Does it, does it worry you?

Does it kind of excite you? How do you think about it? Oh, it excised me from an investment standpoint for sure. Yeah. I mean, would I be invested in a large cap company with very fully valued paper that, you know, was lacking production over the long term and had a short reserve life position? You know, we wouldn't be investing in those sort of companies.

But if we can find companies that have high grade assets that they're drilling out like a Spartan, you know, that's a fantastic place to be because, you know, there's an immense amount of value creation that can happen there.

Gorilla Gold (GG8)

So one of our recent investments in the portfolio has been a company called Gorilla Gold. They previously labyrinth and they, you know, they've got a suite of fantastic assets that would make sense in other people's hands. And we expect them to, to jewel his assets out, find more gold.

And, you know, if it's not appropriate for them to, to monetize the asset through developing their own mills and, and, and mining them themselves, then they'll look to, to create value for shareholders by selling those assets. And so that it's an opportunity for us to recycle some of the capital from the Spartan into something like a gorilla. And Simon Lawson's involved in both. Some of those assets that might have only just picked up as

well. So how do you, how do you sort of see the the timelines like the for instance, already just going going hammer and tongs with the with the drill rig and churning out results and stuff. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's interesting, especially given that was obviously a

Remilius asset as well. I think that history has shown us in WA Gold that having a different view on assets, on the geology, turning the jewelry around, drilling in a different direction, taking a different lens on on assets has created an immense amount of value. And so I wouldn't write any asset off on the basis that it's just been acquired for a certain price and we've just seen this so many times. Yeah. For sure.

AIC Mines (A1M) and Sandfire (SFR)

Let's talk about a couple of other commodities. So to start with copper, I know you said in the past year you're a fan of the copper dynamic. Let's go to North Queensland to start AIC mines, Aaron Colleron and the, and the team, you know, at the, at the smaller end of the spectrum, but sort of building a company kind of brick by brick. Are you, are you a shareholder there at the moment? We are. Yep. Yep. What are you?

What are you sort of thinking going forward about the the assets they've got the the ability to to kind of scale that production? Yeah, we're excited about a one. I think it's a long term, long term story there. It's nothing's going to happen overnight. They're developing an asset called Jericho, which will double production on a on a three view. That's the reason why we are invested. It's it's a tough road to get there.

It takes a long time to get these assets built and developed, but once they get there, there is going to be an immense amount of value for shareholders. We would like to see some more consolidation in that part of the world as well. There's a number of smaller assets that probably don't make sense to be listed as standalone

entities. And so part of our thesis there is that Aaron will be able and the team will be able to execute on some some acquisitions over time and increases the size of that business. And to be frank, we've probably been a bit frustrated and I think Aaron would say he's been frustrated as well with how long it's taken to be able to execute on some of those. But you know, you can't force this stuff. You have to act in the best

interest for shareholders. And if people want silly valuations then then you need to be prepared to walk away. Yeah, yeah, for sure. You kind of get the impression it's a it's going to be an overnight success story that takes kind of 10 years. I think that's for.

That team maybe 2026 story. If we if we go to the other end of the the ASX copper names sand fire they've you know, it really does seem overnight become a very large company and they've yeah, since since management, new management came in in like 21 early 22. The the assets have started to perform in a Matteo sort of come online and it's it's doing well. What do you think about the next leg for for that business?

We're not currently investors. I think Brendan Harris has done an amazing job with that with that company. What would really sort of change the game for us, and speaking as a former geologist here, is some exploration success in bots. I think they've only very recently come to terms with some of the genesis of that ore body and what that means or the implications of how the ore body formed for exploration. And yeah, we're pretty excited to see what they can do and

tracking that closely. Yeah, there's obviously, yeah, further acquisitions that could make. I'm not across the the opportunities out there for that company. It sort of sits above our our market cup spectrum. But yeah, they've done a great job. And I think given the credibility now and the valuation that the market subscribed to that business, he's got a lot of options to go out there and and do something else. So I'm excited to see what what that is.

Aurelia (AMI)

So maybe it'll be one of the other companies you're holding. If we look at some of the the smaller names, we've seen more and more of these Canadians sort of come come across. But what? What are the copper names that kind of get you excited at the moment? Yeah, it's, I mean, it's crazy when you look at the market at the moment, it's every single gold company. If you're producing any gold at all, it seems like you've got a billion dollar market cap and everyone loves you.

You transition that to base metals and there's a number of companies that that no one cares about. We own several of them and we're excited about their prospects. So AMI or really metals, we own Firefly and A1M as as you mentioned earlier of those, the one that I'm most excited about over the short term is Aurelia. That company today has got a market cap. I haven't charged. It's probably down 10%. It's. Don't look. Yeah, very under, you know, 350

million bucks. They've got close to $100 million of net cash on the balance sheet. They've got a huge amount of production growth coming up from a high quality asset they're developing called Federation. I was on site 3 weeks ago up in COBA, which was great. I mean, it's all coming together very well. And we, we see that business generating 100 million bucks of free cash flow on what is today an AV of 250 with a substantial

mine life. And so it's opportunities like that for us that are really, really interesting. And you know, potentially, you know, as if we're sitting here to use time, some of these companies might be more mainstream, like we're talking about Genesis and Vault and some of the other goals at the moment. We just think there's a massive opportunity there.

Cobar consolidation? (PEX)

Some people have sort of been banging the table on on consolidation in, in the COBA. Is that like, is that something you think needs to happen for some of these names? Is it way overhyped? What do you what do you kind of make of, you know, there's some bigger names. There's a lot of. Smaller names, yeah, there's a couple. So Poly Metals, what else you got Peel Mac as well. Yeah. Look, we don't invest on any company on the basis that it's

going to be taken over. We like to invest in companies that can stand on their own 2 feet, generate a lot of cash. And it really certainly fits that bill. Yeah, I think Peel and, you know, makes a lot of sense for a couple of companies in that region, but there's just no onus on anyone to to really move. What's the, where's the, where's the pressure point to say, you know, to bring companies

together. M and AI find anyway, it's it's, you know, you need someone to be heavily motivated for, to take place and sitting there trying to time time stuff, it's very, very hard. So, yeah, we're not sort of expecting anything imminently there, but there are deals that obviously do make a lot of sense. And particularly with with Peel, I mean, they've got some pretty good resources and they don't have a meal. So you don't need to be rocket scientists to work out that

there's synergies there. And they're probably not of a scale that they can finance their own meal. Yeah, speaks to your point on on a sort of forced or pressured seller in in Newmont putting the clock on themselves with with great land and it leading to a great outcome for for one party at least. Yep, Yep.

Nexgen (NXG)

Another company and another commodity that I'm keen to get your thoughts on is Next Gen. these this is I think in your words, the best undeveloped resource of any commodity globally. It's. As distinct from everyone here. To be clear, it's it is a cracker bite by all accounts. Yeah, let's let's start with the resource. They've they've done drilling lately and people have got pretty excited about it.

I mean, the, the production profile that was already kind of established was, was quite enormous. But what does that kind of add to the story for you? It's a good question. I mean, actually on a on a spreadsheet, I don't think it adds much, right? Because, you know, you're not going to build a bigger meal, you're not going to increase the production rate for the 1st 10

years in our view anyway. So I don't think it adds much from a spreadsheet, but it does make it much more strategically compelling for someone like a BHP who will take a very long term view on these assets and the expansion potential down the track. Yeah. So I think that that part of the world is underexplored and they've demonstrated now that there's a, you know, highly prospective second asset there that that should in time be a

mine. But the thing that's really proving difficult there isn't the geology or the quality of the resource as as you know, it's, it's the permitting process and and getting it to market. So, you know, we're not expecting production until 2029. There's no free cash flow until then. And in this sort of environment, people want free cash flow. They want to see, you know, free cash or cash being added to the

balance sheet every quarter. And that's fair enough, but it's hard for hard for those development companies at the moment. We're seeing next Gen. fall from what 1213 bucks to to six today. Nothing has changed in our view. And so, yeah, you can probably imagine where we're taking advantage of that for our investors at the moment. What's a uranium place where you flush through the the decks long, long term when you think about it and you you build your your MPV of the the company. Yeah.

So we use 85 in our MPV's base case. Obviously once again do a range of scenarios around that. What spot today 64 term price is 80. So we do see it going up over time. We think 8085 is the minimum incentive prices required for brownfields project like a Paladin Lang Heinrich as an example. And probably 90 to 100 is, is the incentive price for for greenfields projects that will be required post 2030. So that's the way we're thinking about it. Yeah.

It's, it's been a frustrating one, the uranium trade, but we're we're very confident nothing's really changed from a fundamental supply and demand perspective. And so we're backing ourselves in on that one. Politically, there's been a fair bit of upheaval in in Canada, you know, at a federal level over the past kind of six months. And they've got an election at the end of this month already. Does does that kind of give you give you hope or have you heard any kind of whispers that

there's a different regime? We'd already seen the, you know, Carney, the new progressive, if you like, later trying to do what they possibly can to to win a few votes and and push mining along the kind of trajectory that it needs to be for for Canada. And you can imagine on the the other side of the aisle, it's even more of that kind of voice. Do you, do you have faith in that kind of do? You have faith in politicians. I mean, for an asset like this,

I mean the world. The world needs the uranium. You know, it's, it's a fantastic high quality resource with low environmental impacts. It's going to benefit the local communities, it's going to benefit the government. It's going to, you know, produce low carbon electricity for the world. I'll say no reason why it shouldn't be accelerated and you know, investment allowed and I'm hopeful that it gets accelerated, but I I don't know not. Gonna hold your breath on that

one. No, I won't hold my breath.

Boss (BOE) and Paladin (PDN)

If if we come back to Australia on the uranium names, there are some pretty, pretty hefty shorts on on Boss and and Paladin. Yeah, at at the moment. What do you what do you make of the the sentiment around the the uranium trade being so kind of whipsaw over the past year? Yeah, yeah, it's frustrating. One, I think a lot of people liken it to the lithium boom. I've spoken to a lot of investors. Often my mates will call me off and say, hey, what's this

uranium thing? Is it like lithium, you know, five years ago? Should I, should I invest my house in it? And they're just so fundamentally different because with lithium, the demand side can move around much more. It's dependent on EB sales or stationary storage sales, all that sort of stuff, which is susceptible to consumer sentiment in any given year.

And what's happening in global auto markets, once you turn a nuclear power plant on, you don't turn it off, right, because of the capital costs involved. And so being able to forecast demand for uranium is very, very easy. You know, my 4 year old could do it pretty easily. It's 2 to 3% per annum or slightly under at the moment, but moving to that level. And so, yeah, much more steady demand outlook.

And then on the supply side, we've seen just a huge explosion in supply that frankly we didn't see coming out of Africa in lithium. And you know, the Chinese have once again proven their ability to to bring on huge amounts of supply very quickly to fulfil their needs in the uranium space. We've just been talking about next Gen. not producing until 2039. There is assets like Paladin and Boss that are struggling to come back into production as quickly as what we thought.

So on both counts, you're just looking at a very different market. And we're still burning roughly 25% more uranium every year in power plants than is being drawn out of the ground. So for us, that's just a

fantastic setup. Do you put it kind of to to market dynamics as well the the impacts of sort of like faster money if you like that these short positions can can build so quickly or do you think it is kind of to your point they're quite a Broadway of playing a short term bearish outlook on on uranium? Look, I don't know about the

short, short interest. I mean, with those, both those companies, they're going through ramp UPS and as as we all know, any company going through a ramp up is a very high risk time and more often than not, things do go wrong. Unfortunately, it's rare for a company to bring on an asset very smoothly. And sorry, I can understand why there's that level of short interest. It does surprise me though, given where the uranium price is and what the outlook is over the medium term.

And certainly if there's any sort of positive news in both those companies, then investors will be or short sellers will be in for a pretty rude shock, I think. But but you know, particularly in the case of Paladin, there's issues potentially around funding. So, yeah, so there's, I can see it from both, both sides, yeah.

Met coal and Whitehaven (WHC)

If we if we look at a couple more commodities quickly just to to fly through you called METCO your your best or your highest conviction pick I believe for for 2025. Yep, standing strong. Yeah, it was always AQ four story man. Yeah. It's going. To come in the market Q4, don't worry about. That when you when you look around the names out there, what White Haven like just looking at it earlier today and seeing the, the, the metrics on which the

the 30% sale got got done. You know that that outweighs the market cap of the whole company right now. Is that one kind of lens you, you look at it through or do you think you know, with contingent payments and and other sort of, you know, costs coming up and where, where they are given they're a sort of met and thermal player, there is pretty valid concerns. What do you mean by concerns? For for the company being able to make some of those payments

and. Stuff, Yeah, I mean, gosh, with the with the coke and call price where it is and the thermal call price where it is, I mean, there's no secret they're not generating a huge amount of cash. Do we think they need to raise equity? Absolutely not. We, we think they'll get through and, and make those payments no problems. And you know, you have to look at the counterparties there as well, right? They're not exactly, you know, you're not dealing with Glencore.

So I think I think that'll be fine. What's really interesting for me is just what's happened to the Metco market and the fact that you now have Coronado and Stanmore in far worse positions. And, and really, I mean, if Whitehaven are only generating a little bit of cash, then companies like Coronado and Stanmore are in a world of pain. And So what does that mean for, for royalties for for costs in

the sector? What can we do to increase the overall competitiveness and, and what does it mean for M&A as well? So I think there's some, some great opportunities there. The best time to invest in a commodity is when it's in the cost curve like lithium now like Coke and Co now it's not when it's trading 10 times marginal costs like lithium was at 80,000. And so these are the sorts of periods that create opportunities for people that want to take a three-year view.

Amazing one one other commodity I know you'd talked about and you were you were quite excited was kind of bauxite, aluminium supply chain and Metro mining was the the name you'd mentioned. Now. These guys have have leverage in, in certain sort of parts. They, you know, previously were heavily operationally and financially leveraged, but things are kind of changed there. You're still still a holder and still sort of along for the journey.

Absolutely. Yeah. We love the metros, another good example of of why debt is very good for investment banks and fees and increases number of shares an issue. There's a lot of shares an issue for Metro Mining and we are in yes, a fair proportion of them. We're very positive on the outlook their operations as far as where we continue to ramp up really well post the wet season, the books are prices held in incredibly well. We don't expect spot bauxite pricing to stay where it is

forever. We value the company very conservatively and on that basis we think the business can generate 125 mil of post tax free cash flow per annum. The the current cap is only two 5300. And so yeah, we're really looking forward to seeing a couple of quarters, hopefully the next two quarters where there's forty $50 million put away to the balance sheet. And we think that, you know, that will see a big reaction in the equity or it should because people have to stand up and take

notice then. Fantastic. I think I've taken more enough, more than enough of your time. Fisty. Thanks for making the time for us and coming on money of mine. No worries. Thank you. Awesome, big thanks to Fisty for for joining us on money of Mine and I hope the money miners out there got a kick out of that one. And a massive thank you as well to all our partners. Firstly, JRX, get your tickets discounts in the show notes. The conference will be at the back end of May.

And to the legend at Mineral Mining Services, Grounded Sandy Ground Support, CRA Insurance, K Drew, WA Water, Quattro, Project Engineering, KCA Site Services, Black Drummond Drilling Services, Cross Boundary Energy, Hodoro Hodoro. Information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular

person. Before making any investment decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

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