A Message to Rio from an Arcadium Shareholder - podcast episode cover

A Message to Rio from an Arcadium Shareholder

Oct 07, 20241 hr 5 min
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Episode description

We’ve got some cracking stories today, starting with the news that Rio Tinto (RIO) is sizing up Arcadium (LTM), for which we had Mike Teran, portfolio manager at Blackwattle, join us to discuss where fair value sits for the integrated lithium player.

Next up we got into West African Resources (WAF) who had a torrid day amid nationalisation fears, and finally we discussed the takeover panels U-turn on ERA following some noise from minority shareholders.

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(0:00:00)Intro

(0:01:45)Rio pouncing on Arcadium

(0:08:45)Michael Teran from Blackwattle gives his views

(0:23:50)Why Arcadium and not Albemarle?

(0:44:49)Another WAF dip

(0:53:08)Takeovers panel backflip on ERA

Transcript

Rhino money miners another week and Big M and a possibility we're in that end of town. Hopefully not another bloody BHP angle I think because that just eventuated to nothing. But it might not be. Hold on dear seats. And jeez, we've got a who? Who? We've got a guest coming on to divulge a bit more about this potential Rio Arcadium merger who is obviously saying need to get that bloody get that price up dogs. We do. This is exciting, mate.

We try, yeah. We, we always try and wedge ourselves into deals in some way, shape or form. And this time we've managed to get the shareholder who's making the most noise at the moment to come on the potty and dial in. Easy to contact when they're making heaps of noise. It's great. Cool. Yeah, yeah. Start bloody bit girl. Or better. Better AR, better the The Takeovers panel Backflip ERA WAFF has plummeted today on the back of some, you know you'd say scepticism around Burkina Faso

nationalising. But is this another by the coup moment by the dip? Who knows? That's a big question, isn't? It Oh mate you a big question JD Does mineral mining services still have gear available for a contract? The answer is yes. Yes they do. Yes, same as last week, same as this week. They're still ready and rocking to go for an open pit mining contract. Mate. They can do JVS. They can just RIP, tear, bust and get it all out as quick as possible. Give you cash flow.

Give them a call. If your rocks can make money they'll they can do it for you ASAP. And that's another website header I think. Trap. Well done mate, I like it. Right now. Let's RIP in so the coming out on the weekend, not Friday. The article about the Rio Arcadium. It was Ghost Friday because in after market trade Arcadium teared up 30 plus percent, so it. Started super exciting, right?

This is the beginning of town for those who don't know Mario Chinto's confirmed that they have submitted an on mining bid for Arcadia and like these rumours around the rumours around the potential deal. I think they could be traced to the back end of last week was actually was actually a favourite column that penned a column penned an article on Thursday data room saying that Rio was eyeing off a big deal. Then she named both Arcadium and Albemarle in that one.

I mean, there's been some rumours before that, but let's just, let's just. Good to say hit a one. 80 We'll give her credit on on Saturday, though, it was Reuters who had the scoop that Rio taught us that Rio Tinto was in talks specifically with Arcadium in a, in a deal which was suggested to be worth between US four and $6 billion. And then this morning's ASX release, Rio Tinto, they, they confirmed, I said we're, we're, we're in talks with Arcadium.

And and that's where it gets pretty interesting because they've confirmed it right then to throw another spanner into the mix, one of Arcadium shareholders, a, a Sydney based kind of fund called Black Waddle. They've promptly penned this letter to the board of Arcadium, which is, is chaired by Peter Coleman, suggesting that the, you know, a deal in the vicinity of that, you know, US 4 to $6 billion would be, would severely undervalue the business.

And of course is much lower than than where share price was itself earlier this year too. So must have just been an absolute whirlwind of a, a weekend for the, you know, for the deal teams at Rio, at Arcadium, the the respective advisors and the the chairs, etcetera. But there's a lot of talking points to cover in relation to this news guys. We're going to go through why Arcadium and not Albemarle or, or Pilbara or any development project out there. Why now?

What are Rio's plans here? What's the likelihood of a deal actually going ahead? And and what about the Arcadium shareholders that will be frustrated by any offer that doesn't get the share price back to where it was recently? Well, that point if we're going to have certain person dial in

very soon. It's obviously on one side of the fence, probably probably a refresh for for people who don't know arcadium and you wouldn't bloody blame them because it's the the bloody movements that's created it. That was it was aura cobre Galaxy made all chem all chem merge with live it. Now you've got Arcadium, now potentially Rio Tinto. Isn't it funny how both of those mergers that they did, they renamed the company to neither of the like merging entity server?

Like Oracle bread Galaxy became all chem and all chem live and became OK. Why keep renaming? It's just so confusing. Merger vehicles. Merger of vehicles, no name is better than the other. Yeah, right, JD, Give us the bloody, give us the view, give us the share price asset, all that shit. Bloody overview. Who is Arcady? The thing that jumps out obviously is the share price reaction today up I think last time like 47% just absolutely flying. You can see on the the spark

chart there which. That. That's pretty wild right that that is, you know a pretty violent move to the to the kind of upside there. So that leaves the company kept at US 3.3 billion. So quick reminder, like you said on the back of all those deals US is now their their call listing, but they've got ACDI here in Australia on the ASX 10 operating sites up and downstream. Again, like you said, Maddie, these guys are real mishmash of everything lithium related.

So in 2024 terms, their upstream capacity, what they produce from their brines, Oleros and Fenix, both in Argentina is sort of circa 75,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. Now they've got all these growth assets that they talk about and you'll remember on the Investor Day they sort of trimmed back the spending to kind of tighten the belt a bit and give the investors confidence that they wouldn't be running short of cash, are still reaching their, you know, stated sort of 2828

goals. So they've got downstream opportunities in Argentina and then they've got Galaxy and Namaskar Lithium, both in Canada. They are Hard Rock growth assets that at varying stages. One of them, Namaskar, they're looking to turn the spot into hydroxide as well. Of course they've got Mount Catlin, which has been recently mothballed here in WA.

Not. Yet 25. To be down to be mothballed yet and then yeah in terms of downstream they talk about producing hydroxide chloride, butyl lithium, high purity metal in that investigate they they sort of really pride themselves on not being pinned on just the EV sector. So they talk about producing to the, the farmer space, the ceramics and glass making sectors and all these other things.

And that sort of comes at the history of, of live and, and everything that they had done over the sort of previous 50 odd years that they'd been in production. And they also speak a lot about building the sort of flexibility of kind of toggling between carbonate and hydroxide depending on what gets them better value. So they're definitely building in capacity to produce both of them. They've got downstream in China, Japan, the USA. Yeah, that, that recent strategy

day was like super interesting. I remember, you know, 1 slide that did the rounds there was, you know, they, they, they talk about and, and expect their Max kind of leverage to, to reach

sort of 2.1 times that's EBITDA. And then they, they actually, they actually point like they illustrate what their projected EBITDA will be assuming a, a $1400 per per tonne sort of spot price in 2028. And that that very number actually became subject to, you know, the multiples that we saw kind of talked about on Twitter and also in in the letter penned by Black Waddle, because, you know, that gives them gives their share out a lot of creators to argue that a bit in

the vicinity of four to $6 billion would undervalue the company. If it's the lower end of that bound, then what you talk you're talking around like three times that that that that 2028 projected EBITDA on those consensus numbers. Yeah. For those that hadn't caught the number 1.3 billion EBITDA was the one that was, you know, commonly quoted.

Yeah. And would be better to to talk about that letter then like we've got, we've got Michael Doran from who's a portfolio manager at Blackwater dialling into the show. So pretty keen. I mean, in Full disclosure, Black Waddle, they they're obviously long Arcadium. In the letter they disclosed that they bought their stake shortly after the merger completed, which that merger completed January 4th of this

year. Since then the share price is still down about 40% even after today's 45% price spike. Oh really? Yeah. Oh, he's snapping dark shit. Yeah, yeah, right. Mike. Come on, Mike, let's do it. Thanks man. OK, so having me on. This is this is so awesome. We're we're privileged that you're, you're making noise about a deal and you agree to come on the podcast to, to get loud. This is the best place to get loud.

You know, when you're unhappy about terms and who better, who better to be unhappy about than Rio Tinto in your view with a a low ball offer for Arcadium. What what was your like? How were you feeling when you were reading the the leak from from Reuters over the weekend that there's AUS 4 to $6 billion deal that's on the table? Yeah. So, I mean, look, Rio's been talked about as a potential acquirer for Acadia for a little while.

You know, the, the combination of the assets, you know, really makes sense for Rio. But I mean, the timing for them, good, good, good on for Rio. But yeah, for Arcadium shareholder, this is a very opportunistic time for Rio to to get the assets. And when, you know, when we saw that 4 to $6 billion number being floated by Reuters, you know, we thought that really undervalued the the assets.

And that's you know why we decided we'd, you know, just provide some feedback to the the board of management at Arcadia. But what we think you know as long term investors, what we think about the value of of the assets there. So, so Mike, as you laid out in in the letter, for those that haven't sort of seen it, you started accumulating shares shortly after the merger earlier this year and you've, you know,

been been buying a little bit. Why don't you sort of like lay out the picture of the the value you kind of see and the sort of horizon you had on your investment when you sort of bought into the company and these sorts of things? Yeah. So I mean our investment style Blackwater was that we're really focused on quality. So you know we're looking to sort of build a portfolio of the the highest quality businesses in every industry across the

ASX. And you know, we're sort of looking through the lithium space. You know, we, we sort of doubled in Nigel and Pilbara and then we sort of start looking a little bit more at Arcadium, which is, you know, a combination of two businesses. So it was the US listing live in and then the Australian listing, OK. And they'd only combined in December last year. And you sort of look at those assets and we think they're quite unique within the industry. So this is a, a vertically

integrated business. So unlike, you know, an IGO or a or a Kilbra, which is, you know, sends this forge main straight to China to get processed, but it's a vertically integrated business that's has an ex China supply chain. So there's no really there's not really any other business in the world like it. You know, Albemarle has, you know, large Chinese processing. And so we thought this is a very unique asset and the market's not properly evaluating it.

That vertical integration allows it to to have these long term contracts with the likes of Ford and Tesla and that gives them, you know, floor pricing and protection in their long term contracts and so allows them to give have a profitability through the cycle. And then they have this huge

growth pipeline. So they're expanding in Argentina, they're growing in Canada and you know, they could, they're doubling, looks like they're doubling production into 2028 and then they have another opportunity to double production beyond that. So you know, it's a huge resource base. And so we put all that together and thought, you know, the valuation in a few years time, you've got to be a longer term investor, you know, go for

lithium cycles is pretty tough. But you know, if you sort of step back and think about what a business looks like in a few years time, it was, you know, incredibly undervalued asset. The number you kind of pointed to, you sort of didn't even have to back out your own kind of potential value that the business could could be worth because they did the work for you in the strategy day slide by by pointing to, you know, FY20 8, you know, potential EBITDA under their kind of growth

plans. You're arguing for, you know, a total kind of evaluation of Arcadium that starts at $8 billion and and is is north of that. That's a fairway from the $3.3 billion evaluation. It is right right now. But your math is basically saying that that's that's like 9 times kind of the EV EBITDA that you're you're projecting out in in FY20 8. Is, is a if you know, is that how do you come to that, that kind of that, that, that arithmetic? Yeah. Yeah, just just on those

numbers. So you know, if you sort of look at like companies like Albemarle through the cycle, they trade about 9:00 to 11:00 times sort of a chemical business, you know, huge demand lithium, you know, they sort of trade slightly higher multiples than an iron ore miner, which is maybe six or seven times even done. And So what we thought was OK, you know, arcadium's talked to this this number only three weeks ago, they have some confidence in this number. If you put that on that multiple

and then you discount it back. So 10% per annum discount back. So you MPV it back and you should get towards a, you know, a $8 billion number. And so if the management really, you know, believe in what they, you know, they can execute and deliver those projections, then, you know, we think that, you know, the value value that, you know, talk to Rio has to be in that sort of ballpark of a discounted valuation back from the, you know, that that target. Mike, like you, you lay it out

in the in the note. Yeah, LTM has just been completely smashed this year in in a sector of companies that have been really, really sort of beaten up. And I think the the question a lot of people had is that what, why have they been whacked so hard? You know, given as as people like to say they do have, you know, relatively top tier, lower quartile, all these sorts of things, projects. What? Why do you have they've been hit so hard by the downturn?

Yeah, I mean, it's it's a couple of things. I mean, we've been thinking about that as well as we've sort of been, you know, watching it go all the way down. Look, I think the US market in particular seems to be very focused and worried about their balance sheet. And so, you know, they've got this big growth pipeline.

They're spending a lot of CapEx. And I think part of the, the Investor Day only a few weeks ago was to sort of, you know, calm everyone's fears and say, look, you know, we can actually face this CapEx spread it over many years and, you know, provide a lot of yeah, headroom for about balance sheet. So I think that was one of the reasons it got sold off. I think in, in Australia, the stock's a bit of an orphan

stock. You know, it's, it's unlike the other, the other lithium players, which are sort of Hard Rock miners, which, you know, as you know, mining investors in, in Oz, it's easier to get our heads around while this one's vertically integrated. And I feel like, you know, people haven't done the work to really understand what that actually means. And so I think those two things have sort of put the pressure on the share price. Does it being a ACDI as well, does that sort of play into it?

People think, you know what, why play it on the the secondary kind of listing? Is that a big factor at all? Yeah. It's, it's, it's funny that like the, when it first listed, I think about 55% of the shareholders were ASX listed and then 45 in the US, But that sort of that flow is just moved towards the US and I think it's been over 60% now in the US. And so that just makes it that

much harder. And you know, if you look at like the, the stock indexes in, in ASX, you know, Arcane has fallen out of there ASX 100 now into a small cap only a couple of weeks ago as well. So it doesn't help. Do do you think this was always the end game for Arcadium that Rayo would take him out? Yeah, feels like that that'll help them all. You know, the the big assets that will require capital, you know, patience and and long term

thinking. And you know, I think the shareholder base is showing that that's not really what they're looking for, right. And so, you know, it makes sense that a larger a larger player takes them. And how amenable do you think Real are going to be for price negotiation or do you think it's more opportunistic and it's going to be like a BHP Anglo situation? Yeah. I mean, I think this is still

strategic for them. You think about like the the other options they have, you know, they've got issues in in Serbia, they've got a small asset in Argentina is they seem to really like Brian. There aren't really many other. I don't think there's a second prize if you know, if they don't take Arcadian, Albemarle doesn't fit the bill. It's got, you know, China, Chinese processing, it's got some other non lithium parts of the business. SQM with the issues around Chile just make it too hard.

So I feel like for real, this is all or nothing and this is the strategic asset that they need if they actually want to chase off their lithium dreams. So, so how do you think about then getting the other shareholders to to sort of see your point of view? I'm sure plenty of them will be sort of pegged to a higher price given where the stocks kind of

come from. But as we kind of talked through earlier, sort of breaking down the the register, you've got a a large number of passive funds and then you've got a whole heap of, you know, non substantial stakes below 5%, a lot sort of 1 to 2% type stakes. How do, how do you think about getting them on the side on to to sort of see, see your value? Have you reached out and got a bit of a feel for how they're

kind of thinking as well? Yeah, we've, we've, you know, since since that letter sort of went went out, we've had quite a few inbounds and had a few chats with some. Look, everyone's got different views, they've got different time horizons. So some are happier to take, to take a short term sugar hit. Others are sort of a bit long term like us. So I mean, there's a variety of

views. Everyone believes that the assets are undervalued and it's just about what the what the premium is if if the deals to get done. You've got a good sugar hit today and a 45% kick up must make you a bit happier. Yes, it helps. It does help. I just Chuck Chuck inbounds to mark in the YouTube comments. While he's listening. Everyone. Does it, if it, you know, a deal at six billion US, does that cut the muster? Well, we think 8 billion is is closer to the right number.

We. Put that number out there and you know, today you've had a couple of the, the research houses come out with similar numbers. So cities said look, a replacement value. So if you were to rebuild Arcade from from from scratch, it's going to cost you a bit over $8 billion to do it. Macquarie have come and said, look, you know, if you value the full resource base, they've got 8 1/2 billion US valuation. So, you know, there's a few numbers out there.

We we we think you know towards Adeline is the right number. The challenge might be in that if if Rio walked what what happens to Arcadium share price? It probably might come off a bit. Maybe it doesn't. I'm I'm not sure. But there's also, you look at the field of potential like Interlopus here. And like, I don't, I don't think anyone comes to play other than Rio, right? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, you're probably right.

Maybe there is a fit there for for Albemarle, but, you know, they've got their own issues and otherwise, you know, Rio's the one, you know, the outsider who wants to get into the industry. You have the deep pockets so that, you know, it makes sense for them. I guess. Look, everyone's going to have their their perspective.

But we're, our view was, look, if you're going to be closer to that $4 billion mark, you know, share, we think it's better valued for for acadium to walk away from the deal, just go alone. Yeah, look, yeah, the management team have pulled out these targets. They're, you know, they're confident in executing them. So they should back themselves to go after it. You know, our personal view is, you know, on the on the lithium sort of cycle that we're, you know, probably closer to the

bottom. You know, we're pricing is now you're hitting cost curve, you're sitting, you're hearing people curtailing minds. You know, you sort of CATL. You know it's tough out there, but demand is, is is still OK and you know the queue up for low prices, low prices and with patients we probably expect an all time price cycle to happen in the next couple of years. Is there can you?

Do you have any info on whether the offer was cash script mix or and as a shareholder, what would you be looking for from real? Look, all we got to go by is that Reuters article and I mean there was a mention of the script as well. I think script might be hard just because of the US investor base. Do they really want reoscript? Like if you're, if you're, you know, ASX, you know, investor, then you know, maybe reoscript is OK at the right premium.

But yeah, I mean, just the US investor base might be a bit too hard for them. How do you sort of think about value across the, the lithium space? I mean, on the on the back of this news, we've seen almost every name on the watch list kick up. Are you sort of getting excited? Obviously you mentioned you think we're sort of eaten, eaten right into the cost curve near the bottom of the the kind of cycle.

But like you also said, if Rio is not going to swing for some of these names, who else kind of is? So it seems a little bit premature that a lot of these names are starting to run. Are you still excited looking out there? Well, we're so excited. We're Arcadia for sure. Any other names? Like I said, we've, we've our preference is to look at the larger guys, you know who are, you know, low on the cost curve

they're producing. So you know, we have looked at Pilbara, we have looked at IGO before. Yeah, there, there is value there, but people will have to be patient. I don't even though we're, we think we are towards the bottom of that cycle, that doesn't mean that prices RIP tomorrow, right? It's going to take a little while, but you know, demand is still solid and you've seen this

all those supply determined. So you know, you need listing prices to be at an incentive price to to get you production online. Otherwise we're just going to have the same price cycle again. We're going to have a price spike at some point. And then we'll have, you know, everyone go gang Busters and then spend a lot of capital and we'll have a, you know, go, go find the bottom again, right? That's that's the way commodity markets work.

Beautiful, beautiful mate. Oh well, we'll we'll look forward to engaging with you on this journey mate. This won't be the last time we're talking this deal. I don't reckon early stages. So thanks for coming on short notice mate. Appreciate it, Mike. Thank. You great. It's great to chat. Thanks so much, Mike. Thanks guys. Yep. How good was that? Good stuff. The one thing we didn't mention The xx China. That's that's an interesting point that we probably didn't

cover. It's bits and pieces right there. There is some bits, but you can sort of divide. If you send your South American product to your US facilities, then you're on side, but there are downstream facilities that have in in China too. So yeah, sort of ebbs and flows, but awesome to hear it's sort of first hand from the the guys themselves at Black Waddle. Very, very long term view. Like yeah, it's appearing like because, you know, ex John is a long term thought.

Yeah, that's right. You sort of carve out your view of where you think the company will be in sort of three or four years and that often tends to be much easier than where the company's going to be in six months time. Yeah. Very much so, right. Let's get into the other talking points that you alluded to at

the start of the show. And the I guess the big one was why, why is Rio Tinto picked Arcadian, which you wouldn't say is the frigging most stellar blue chip lithium company in the world by I guess reputation complex, very complex, not like doesn't have like the one of the two biggest Braun. Lots of operation. Cost curve, Yeah, it's not. So it's not Albemarle, No. So why haven't they gone for

Albemarle? It's a, it's a really good question, Maddie. Like there's a lot of, I think the, the, the rationale, there's a bunch of different reasons that I've written down here, but the one that sort of sits well the most is Arcadium just became way too cheap on a, on a

relative basis. Look at their underperformance versus Albemarle or Pilbara. Like, you know, Mike actually outlines in the, in the letter pen to, to the, to the board of, of Arcadium. It's like down 60 odd percent year to date versus like, you know, 40 odd for, for the other

two. My Intel suggests that Rio took a good look at it actually doing a deal here about a year ago, by the way, So you know, the the the merger of of all Cam and live Ant was still completing and and Rio had taken a I understand Rio has taken a pretty good look under the hood, but couldn't get there on value at that time.

In fact, I'd heard from someone that you know, part of putting all Cam and live and together was actually, you know, to get sufficient scale to actually warrant being kind of acquired by Rio in the long run to. Dress up. Yeah, yeah. And. So that and that when you say that we're having a good look that we're going to have a good look post merger then. Yeah, Yeah, it was. You're looking at, you're looking at the combined entity and look at it didn't get over

the line. We've, we've sort of, but that's changed now because it's down truckload on a relative basis. So it probably just got a bit too cheap. I think, I think also just to go on that point on an absolute basis as well, right, because you go back to years and you can talk if one's relatively cheaper than the others, but they're all

very expensive. But now we're talking in terms of the the EBITDA number that was quoted and stuff in absolute terms, it could be quite cheap if you're believing that's the the lithium pricing environment we're going to see in a couple years time. Yeah. The other point is in putting a bunch of kind of like phone calls out today to kind of make sense of this. I learned that I didn't know this before, but I learned that Rio actually has been really focused on DLE.

Apparently they've built out a pretty substantial technical team in Lithium. Apparently they've been working pretty hard on the technology side themselves. Apparently they're much more interested in in in the application of the technology they've been working on in Brian rather than spot. You mean, because they think the cost optimization of the industry will make, you know, some of these Brian projects even more cheaper over time, which complicates things for the larger kind of spot

opportunities out there. And look, Albemarle comes with plenty of spot, don't get me wrong, like you know, but but Grand Bushes has a kind of complex joint venture with Tianchi and then what you know, like you know, you got to accept that means is operator of that instead. So it's kind of a more complex kind of spod, semi spod portfolio. But it does open them up to obviously the, the Atacama lot, the evaporation side of things.

But if they're very interested in DLA, it opens up the what is it, the shale oil fields, the what's the American ones? What are they called? The GSML. Nah, not the Jr thermal, the ones in America. The bloody deep deep ones in the oil field that they can't evaporate but need to be DLA. Yeah, I think, I don't think DLA is going to be like A11 size fits all like I think I think you'll have sort of bespoke applications.

I don't even really know if there's a commercial, you know use yet or how far it is. It's all you know let's wait and see what eventuates there. But my Intel suggests that Rio is pretty optimistic about the application. They might also like, keep in mind they, they, they acquired Rincon, which is in Argentina and but that that project in itself might actually like need DLA in order to, to sort of stack up. So they probably allocate a lot of resources to this technology side of things.

And as a result, they might have gotten bullish on it and they, they might have, they might actually see the, the kind of the long term cost curve as the, the, the, the flat bronze kind of kind of coming lower. And, and you keep like, it's the, it's the spot that's the marginal stuff there.

And and you get, you know, if the spot's still in the market, then heck, you have even higher margins for that if you're part of the really low cost stuff with the right technology that that's what I believe their view could be at the moment. Yeah, the smack over. That's what I was trying to say. The smack over. Yeah, fulfilled bronze.

The the interesting thing will be to see what they if if like Fast forward a shit load if this did happen, what they did with the spot like like you'd say Mount Catlin's probably pretty immaterial to the whole of. Arcade they declared that non core. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But you look at the James Bay stuff, it's like, would that be, is this? Could you assure him, right. If this happens, they'd probably flog James Bay off and

spodumain. Hard Rock is not a focus and that sort of feeds into the narrative as well. Why they didn't go for Albemarle? Because Albemarle is good chunk of value is green bushes yeah and a bit of Wodgina which they're a non operator at and it. Could it could be very spodumainy, Yeah. And my like, like I think there's I think there's a potential there like for for

sure. And if you look at what Arcadium's announcements have have been in the last few months, they've actually been substantially to you know, minimise their marginal expenditure on any of their spot projects. So started in in August, they basically announced that that they pause, pause their spend on on their Galaxy mine in James Bay.

And then a month later they declared that they pause the cut back at Mount Catlin and that was non core do an asset in James Bay. They're looking for a partner to even fund the fund the rest of that now. So, you know, those are kind of steps that maybe dress the company up to be even more attractive for an eventual deal with Rio Tinto in that sense. So I can I could I could get on board with that logic. I also think like Arcadium's brine assets are in Argentina, not not Chile, right.

And you know, the CEO of Rio Tinto, he Yakab, he used to live in Argentina when he worked for Shell. You know, he's, it's a familiar jurisdiction that we're comfortable enough to, to buy a ring on. You had the regime change there, which is supportive of of of investment of mining investment all of a sudden with the Malay

government. At the same time, if you acquired like Albemarle, you're getting outsized exposure to the to the Atacama in Chile, where there's some uncertainty on how the the royalty regime might evolve in the post twenty 30s there. I don't quite remember what the what happens then, JD, what is it? Well. That the mine permit is mine, which became a a big point of discussion not too long ago.

And yet you've heard a lot more in recent times about Chile wanting to build out a Cadelco of lithium. So a deal earlier this year, they paid 3 or $400 million to to scoop up some assets there as well. So I think that people have been a bit more risk off on Chile, operating in Chile. Is the would the royalty be different in Argentina than Chile because you'd say the cost curve like the Atacama ones that SQM and Albemarle are the lowest

cost producing assets. But in terms, I think it's like the all in cost of it is the other end of the spectrum for what Albemarle actually get because of the huge royalty that goes to Chile. Yeah, everywhere's got its own. Sort of problems, the royalty regime is different but remember for a long time the challenges in Argentina, we're not being able to actually get the cash out of the country. There's capital controls. So that's all you know supposedly in the works to improve.

That's why BHP has invested a huge amount of money, then the London group have gotten comfortable. These things are apparently on on a changing trajectory for the better. But. I think we're going to put an interview up either tomorrow or Friday, but we spoke with Hugh Mackay and and he talked about this dynamic that oftentimes, you know, big kind of countries will have where they're like receptive to wanting investment.

So they'll give some sweetheart deals to kind of encourage mining companies to to actually invest. But then those in the long run is more investment kind of comes in because the first move is demonstrated it was OK. Then all of a sudden those early, those early like agreements actually kind of create conflict because then it seems unfair and it kind of creates this unrest. I think with Chile, there's something like that that's sort of happening around the twenty 30s.

I need to get more information about it. But yeah, he explicitly, explicitly mentioned something there. Is it, it was interesting to look at the look at the watchlist today and it sort of happened, didn't happen right at the starter trade, but like lithium is they're all tearing like I think God. Everything Linetown was up almost 20%. Yeah, like, you know, Wildcat 28%, like, you know, pay made up. It wasn't up as much, but yeah, like huge, huge moves. But the underlying splodge main

price has not changed. Hasn't changed any, any frios view is actually, you know, bullish, bullish Brian bearish spot. Then again, that sort of what's a question mark over that spot? And if they want to do this deal and it's all on no commodity price movement and potential, you know M&A and everything, this looks like it had time up for a bit. This would be a big deal to DD was yeah, to get through, to get over the line.

And we're at the start of the potential frigging price negotiation of it. And I remember people telling us maybe a month or so ago, a bit less than a month ago when all this news came out of cattle in, in China and they said you're not going to see the the prices move straight away. But give it sort of three or four weeks and they'll move because we saw the futures jump up, you know, the GFX ones jump

up 8 sort of percent. But we're here now 3 or 4 weeks later and all the indications we've got from granted not the most transparent of pricing is that it hasn't actually moved yet and it's still around usus 750 to 806% so. There's a comment there to like, you know, at least Rio Tinto's embarking on counter cyclical M&A for once. Like they had to be commended for that.

Like, you know, yeah, genuinely, you know, it's kind of surprising to see Rio actually confirmed that they'd bid for something in what feels like a through. And certainly on any price chart looks that way. But there's. Yeah, I'm not, I, I've, I've come around to the view that there's a lot of merit in in Arcadia, if you believe the Rio view of the world. I haven't completely come around to the view that they wouldn't subsequently look at Albemarle down the track, too.

I think there is a consensus view out there. There's more pain on the horizon for Albemarle. A lot of debt, a lot of debt. Like, you know, there's. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see how things unfold for that company over time. And there might be, you know, a more opportunistic moment for Rio, like if you could scoop up both Albemarle and and and Arcadium, that gives you a pretty commanding position in

this market. I understand that the fully integrated, like the fully integrated kind of lithium production is, is what is really attractive to to Rio as well. You know, they, they're less attractive to just sort of having only upstream. They love the integration part of it. They want value across the value chain. They've done sort of similar. They had a similar strategy in aluminium historically and it looks like they've done technical work sort of along

that value chain as well. I think and the the Hulk Braun and DLA and whether it's all field Brauns, everything that's it's it's resembles iron ore in a way, high CapEx, long life, low cost, whereas spodumene besides green bushes maybe like they they aren't that as long a lot like the bronze will just they're freaking huge. Yeah, the beautiful thing about what made iron ore such a phenomenal commodity to be in is that you, you, you could have the majors produce it, you know,

the teens dollars per tonne. And then the price was, was always underpinned at a much higher like price never gravitated down that way because you had higher cost production out of out of China. You just had some high cost out of, you know, India and Brazil was high cost and also like W Australia had other high cost producers, which was sufficiently large that it kept the marginal production and hence the, you know, the price floor, it was way, way, way

higher. So you could have phenomenal margins if you'd sunk the rail and you could produce it a really low cost and a decent deposit lithium. Time will tell what that cost curve looks like. VHP is too scared because they think it'll be too flat in the long run. Rio. Rio looks like actually thinks it could be a lot steeper because they think that the brine with DLE could actually come even lower, which gives you more margin if the marginal producer is is spot. Yeah, yeah.

Do you do you think there's ever a chance Albemarle to dress themselves up, would spin out their Hard Rock and separate that from their broadband and converters? You got a non controlling interest in green bushes and watching making up over half your value. You know, if you kind of use IGO is a bit of a, a proxy of the value. It's an interesting type of

proposition. I think that in itself could be something, you know, such a deterrent for enough of a deterrent for, for Rio right to to spend that much money and not be in control. Yeah, that's what I mean. What if they spun it out? Yeah. And then made the brine and the brine and converter yeah,

vehicle as the one that. I was looking at more from the Rio, more from the lens of who would be interested in buying the Hard Rock. Maybe that's the bit that becomes Album. The end of the day, Green Bush is just like competitive with the lowest cost Bryans. It's yeah, it's a phenomenal kind of like yeah asset from every stretch of the imagination. I wouldn't be surprised to see album. I'll keep selling stuff like looks like they're yeah, selling

everything they can. They've got some real sort of balance sheet stress. So let's let's see what pops out of there kind of stress over time. Maybe you can maybe maybe some other companies can pick up interesting assets that pop out of there and maybe what's left is actually interesting to Rio. If it's mostly Brian that could, that could be interesting. What about getting a deal done mate? Yeah, I'm a basketball.

I do. I think the leak complicates things and but I do think a deal can get done here. I've like if it doesn't get done, then we've got to have a conversation about how by three O and BHP suck at getting deals done. This they'd be they'd be like 2 late large measures that they just couldn't do I. Think I think they'd call that discipline mate. Unless. They're not getting. A deal done at stupid prices, yeah. I, I think, I think both Rio and Arcadium are motivated to do

this deal. The big question, it's just going to come come down to an agreement on price and you know, you can hear how the shareholders think about that based on what what Mike had to say. But like I said, the last few months of announcements out of Arcadium to me look like they are making their portfolio more attractive to, you know, what, what Rio likes about the company as in a sort of pausing incremental spend on the things that are less interesting to them.

But there's still a risk that it slips away, right. Like you said, the market cap even after the 45% uplift is 3.3 billion, yet the, the, the rumoured deal that like value that's going around is four to six. So the markets clearly pricing in a substantial risk that the kind of deal falls off. At the same time, there's like room for an uplift there again, if, if the deal eventuates. So the market's not sure, right? And I, I think it, it could go

either way. Like, yeah, these things are at the margin a lot harder to get over the line when once they've leaked because you have shareholders sort of.

Bloody podcast talking about. It exactly totally yeah like there's no shortage of of views and but I also look at the the register of Arcadium and bring it up there that's a that's a beautiful register to get a deal done there's there's no blocking stake there from like a a shareholder that's got stars in their eyes there's heaps and heaps of passive money there

there's. And there's a lot of like, you know, it's just, it's just a beautiful share shareholder registry of 1 to 2% interest here and there. So in terms of actually like the execution side of things, like it's going to be hard to get a block of shareholders there to sort of fight against it. I think, I just think, I think there's a, there's motivation, there's a history here, I think of wanting to actually create this marriage over a longer

period of time. I think the, the, the Rio can clearly actually see value at these levels for once. Just depends like are they, are they both going to get enough of an uplift that shareholders are happy at the same time, you know, Rio still sees value. That's TBA, but I I think a deal is very doable. All cash. You just show script from Rio? Or do you reckon Rio?

I I, I think that's the most likely thing you would see, but I think script is an easier sell to shareholders because they get the rollover relief on it and they, you know, yeah, it would be like, I actually think Rio. Oh. So so that happens it that's America as well. Rollover relief with script is it? I think you can get you. Have to apply for it. Yeah, it's not. It's not a given, but yeah. Cold. Would they have any? So. Anything to roll over?

Yeah, like, yeah, I mean, I mean, what do you mean by that? The. Isn't rollover relief for capital gains? Capital gains, yes. Would they be capital gains? Yeah. They went in the IPR. Yeah, holding it from Galaxy days. Yeah, well. You know it would have been up to hold it for a while. Yeah, yeah. It's a fairpoint, but yeah, I would like if I were a shareholder and I would, I think script kind of makes the deal easy, but I think it's just unlikely. You know, he's got heaps of

cash. They should spend that cash on what I think is a creative way to spend it in this deal, yeah. This has been a winner for the investment banks as well. Year after year there's a deal with if you've latched yourself onto to Galaxy or a Cobra or something like that. I mean remember the the fees involved in the last one was my mind blowing. They were the biggest fees I'd ever seen for a deal of that size.

L can and live in merger. I think we put up the scheme, Doc. It was like the north of US 150, yeah. It was something obscene for a merger. I just put a bit of food on the table, got A and mentioned it before. But it interesting that because if you collate the rumours going around like maybe Royale by Pilbara, maybe Royale by payment, right? Like this is change and whether this opens up a lot of different parties for those.

And it's just so interesting that none of the other majors, obviously we mentioned BHB, but we haven't seen Glencore Anglo. They've got enough problems of their own, but none of the other big guys have shown any interest. We're doing a a lithium deal that's a. No, Glencore did have interest in there was. No trading, wasn't it? They were rumoured to want to pick up Bald Hill and IPO it for a billion dollars. If you could pick up that for pocket change, you'd do it.

And, and capitalists, yeah, they, they, they, they are, their lithium trading business has been incredibly profitable and they're looking to grow that. Yeah, yeah. I'm sure they'll get creative if there are some distressed opportunities out there and they might end up, yeah, learning to own in some, some instances, yeah. If there if there's enough value that they'd do it, but that hasn't exactly presented itself in in lithium land just yet. Bloody very, very interesting.

I think it bloody for because this day to day process is going to be frigging huge. Mandatory CRE insurance, a review of all these bloody 10 assets you talk about, JD. Took the words out of my mouth mate. But you know, when you're that vertically integrated with brine and chemicals, I need one asset to fall off. The whole tower comes tumbling down. You're not vertically integrated anymore. Go you go, Jodi. Just think Arcade and there's so

much going on, it's so complex. But CRA, they just thrive on the complexity now. 10 assets, not a problem. More complex the better. Bloody probably the only way it's going to get over the line. Rio cross your T's dot your eyes get bloody CRE insurance to go bloody review these assets for you. I want to see it in the in the dock. The takeover dock CRE approved. That's it. They're happy to go to Japan, China, Argentina, Canada to doodle.

Keep it every bloody global mining company safe, no matter what commodity or jurisdiction. JD. Go CRA. Speaking of oh jeez, yeah anyway more more negative news, but another W African resources that have to be the most like if you go through historic massive drops in a day, it would have to be accumulated the most with all

the coups and. Everything operating in West Africa. Became a fossa and and today is one of them tried it down, you know 25% shortly after open then went into a pause in trading, then reopened. Yeah, yeah. Then the I guess the the all around the possibility, scepticism, whatever you want to call it of nationalising mining and became a fossa, but nothing confirmed yet, just fear. Yeah. So that's the that's the sort of drama we're talking about here.

You remember about a month or two months ago we spoke about potential changes to the mining code. So not nationalisation, but equally quite worrying for shareholders. And that one turned out to be a by the dip moment. So you started by saying, Maddie, more negative news, but perhaps there is a bit of silver lining to this one. If you remember that one a couple months ago now, within a week, the share price had completely recovered and they just sort of took it in its

stride. So it's worth looking at how this one's kind of shaping up. A lot of people still digesting the news. So I think that'll be more to come in the, you know, the next couple weeks about this one. It all comes off the back of the military hunter leader Ibrahim Traore speaking on the the national radio on Saturday. Essentially what he said about mining.

This was in a, a broader conversation talking about corruption, talking about the the, the military kind of challenges in the the North East of the country. But there was a segment on mining and potentially pulling the permits of some foreign operators. So this was then covered by Reuters and all these other sort of publications. There was a sort of quote that

particularly stood out. I will just read it out now we know how to mine our gold and I don't understand why we are letting multinationals come in and mine it. So again, he didn't name any companies specifically but of size in Bikini you've got Wolf who we're talking about today, but overseas you've got Endeavour Nord Gold, they're Russian group as well as Ozone. So it's worth mentioning these these couple other operations because I think they might cut

come relevant in a little bit. But Bongu and Waggon Yon. Not sure if I'm pronouncing that one right. Definitely got that right. Thank you, gents. But these assets were previously owned by Endeavour. There was a transaction with Lilium Mining in 2023. This led to a bit of a dispute in which the government came in. They now own it. The government has scooped up these assets. They've said they'll pay Endeavour US $60 million by the end of the year.

Now we just put a pin in them for now, but I think they could come relevant in terms of companies acting in line with the the mining code. But like we sort of said at the beginning, is, is a by the dip moment. That's the kind of big question people are trying to answer here. And the investors that are familiar with West Africa, they've invested in West African miners before. They will have seen this stuff hundreds of times before. It happens, you know, across the

continent many times a year. So off in that trading pause that you mentioned, Maddie came out with an update as well, just a simple one page trying to alleviate the fears of shareholders. And I actually think they did a a bit of a decent job at it. If you see in the the course of sales for those listening in, shares closed at $1.66 on Friday. They opened today at $1.30 before trading downwards to $1.24. Then they went into a 80 minute pause in trading in which this

announcement came out. West African just took the stance that they have adhered to everything. They've got a good relationship with the government. They've won a couple awards for being the best operators in country. And there was a segment here that specifically stood out to me talking about this being a stance against miners who have not adhered to the mining code.

So that leads to people pointing fingers to those couple operators before and perhaps some actions that, you know, we're not quite aware of, but other type of operators who haven't followed the letter of the law and paid the taxes they need to pay and these sorts of things and.

Right. I'm so keen to go deep on those two projects that you talk that you mentioned there, which were previously owned by Endeavour. Endeavour Yeah, there's some juicy word on the decline about what happened there. There is some very juicy word on the decline. So that Lilium Group is owned by a Lilium Capital, which is also from Burkina, which is all tied to this one bikini businessman.

And there was. He accused Endeavour of not revealing all that needed to be revealed in the sales process. And then essentially Endeavour said you haven't paid us the money you said you'd pay. And the Bikini government tried to step in and mediate that. Overlay that with the departure of Endeavour's. Former CEO. Former CEO as well in an unexplained transaction. It's just a whole. There's a whole story there that is not being published in the the local media reports.

I can guarantee that. Just to the point on how the West African response had been taken by the market. They went into that pause of trading $1.24, they came out $1.37. So it looked like investors also. There's like 80 minutes for people's to sort of mall over and see what what's actually at risk here, what's going on and they seem to like it. It's sort of trading in and around that level at the the

time where recording on volume. That's a good few multiples of the average daily trading multiples. So a lot still to digest as we've kind of spoken about West African a bunch in the past, you know by 2026 four 160,000 oz, you know on sort of conservative numbers that could be a bit under a billion dollars in EBITDA, bit over 600 in free cash for a $1.5 billion Business Today. So it's just how you kind of tie a number to the risk of

operating in this country and. They, I think they get tainted by like Burkina Faso is decent size, so there's different parts of Burkina Faso, but they get tainted as everything that happens in Burkina Faso taints the whole of Burkina Faso. Yeah. And it's it is not the case.

It's, it's similar with Mali as well, but you like geographically as you're kind of explaining it there, Maddie, the northeast of the country, the north of the country is, you know, a much more challenging and dangerous place to to

operate. So, and that was again, that was another thing that was addressed by the the military junta in their announcement on Saturday, how they're going about making the country safer and removing the terrorist groups that that sort of reside in the the north of the country there. So the one of the things to look out for if you're a Wolf holder interested in this company is that. OJC is, by the way, Ding. Ding for Ding, Ding, Ding. Yeah, the the mining code potential changes that hasn't

played out yet. So that was going from a 10% free carried interest for the government up to 15. And what Wolf said at the time was that they believe they are grandfathered in that system and that former 10% rate will apply to them. There was no confirmation from the government that that that is in fact true. So we'll have to sort of wait and see how that kind of plays out in time. That's one to keep your eyes on as a as a wolf holder or somebody interested there.

But you know, As for what's happened sort of today, I'm keen to see what Endeavour does when they trade overnight kind of Canada, if they're hit as severely, they're a bit more sheltered in that they're not just a pure play Bikina minor like W African is. But yeah, we'll see if this ultimately ends up being a buy the dip situation or not. I'd say Richard Hodge phone is permanently plugged into power today. Bloody ringing off the hook. I'm sure he's handled on a 12 days in his time.

Making a fortune, mate. Right, Next up, So we've seen a very unexpected backflip from the Takeovers panel in regard to the proposed ERA entitlement offer, which this is very interesting, especially to me because you know me. So brief one for people who don't know when we say, alright, that's a Jabiluka uranium deposit in NT, £300 million at .55% uranium decline already to the ore body, Rio owns 86% of it, just shy of compulsory acquisition.

But to minority shareholders, Packer and Co, 9.3%, Sentry another 3%. So 25th or so, I'll go through what happened in the lead up and where, where we are today. So on 25th of September, the that's when the takeovers panel declined to conduct proceedings from the application by Packer and Carl and Zemtree about Rio wanting to raise $880 million via an entitlement offer at Point OO 2%.

So essentially, if the minority shareholders didn't tip in their pro rata amount and continue riding the pump, rail would go over 90% and proceed to compulsory acquisition. And this was then after obviously Prime Minister said that they're going to incorporate it into Kakadu National Park and pretty much squash it forever.

Yeah, so. And that that price that they were going to raise your time, it was just, it was a severe discount was like 90. I think the the 80 million that didn't be worth 14 for Yeah. And Carl, something like that. Was a crazy discount, but that also would have said the probable acquisition price of the remaining interest as well. And it actually, yeah, it actually said that the IT says it right here. Rio intends to proceed with compulsory acquisition of all remaining ERERI shares at an

offer price of .002. Yeah. So what then happened after the takeover? This panel made that initial ruling. Well, the next day, that's when the minority shareholders when or say minority are referred to the two. They wrote to the Takeover's panel to review the decision and based on today's announcement, it appears because they said they didn't even conduct the proceedings.

So it appears that they've written to the president of the Takeovers panel and they have decided that a fair process was not followed because they didn't even conduct the proceedings. They just said no, it's not happening. And based on that, they've now got a independent board committee that will actually review the application made by Packer and Co and and Zentry, which was, you know, pretty, yeah, pretty. It was pretty clear cut that they said we we do not intend to conduct proceedings.

And now they said, no, we will review the review. Essentially it's like a bit of a double review. So and there's. No guarantee that conducting

proceedings would deliver. No, it just means they're actually, they're now got an independent committee that's going to actually, because because their whole thing is their, you are saying like you're not going to conduct proceedings, you're going to let this entitlement offer go through when there's actually a federal Court case in play regarding this and say, hey, can you actually do an entitlement offer when there's an ongoing federal Court case about what

you know, the Prime Minister and Madeleine King of the decision they made and the, the interesting facts that came to light just at the end of last month, about a week ago, was that so Resources Minister Madeleine King was advised by her office that prior to making this decision to incorporate it in the to not extend the permit. The legal challenge was unlikely because Rio Tinto, the major shareholder, does not support mining at Jabaluka and they would not fund AR as challenge

because of the public backlash. So The Who she was advised by clearly missed the point that minority shareholders also have a say, think that they'll sort of say, oh, Rio Tinto owns the whole thing and they won't do it. And ARA pretty much immediately sued them, effectively. So it was now. The takeover span would typically have to operate pretty quickly, so we should see an update in the next few weeks again. Yeah, I assume they didn't put a timeline on this one.

No, no, not for the review, no. So like, yeah, so there's the review, but then there's the obviously the the court thing going on as well. So it's like what I guess what's the, what's the possibilities if that review comes back in the favour of the minority shareholders? Obviously they want the entitlement office squashed for the moment while the Federal Court case is ongoing.

They want to drag that. I assume they want to drag that out as long as possible that because that means they don't have to stump up the cash yet to stay in the game. And will it, I've mentioned this before, will it drag on long enough before the federal election, which is likely going to be next year? Will that then, if there was a change, see that decision to incorporate Jabaluka in the Kakadu National Park Park overturned by a new government?

Lot of balls in the air. But because it is a renounceable entitlement, which means that the minority shareholders can find some other parties to take up their entitlement to stay in the game. But you know, while there's a court case going on, it's pretty fucking hard to do that when when they did the investor sounding and the only person that wanted the only company that wanted to tip in was Rio Tinto. So could be another fund.

But don't forget old buddy. Yeah, like someone like a boss energy as well, because they were putting in a bid before all this decision happened. So who who knows, like, you know, propose they'll propose in a free carried interest for the mirror people. I just don't. I think this is far from over. It's juicy, juicy story. Drag on. Yeah, see where it goes.

It's very interesting. It's and, and because the whole, the whole critic of the, the whole process for this rehab is just like the cost of the rehab is just being astronomical for, for Ranger. I'll just, I'll just think of the shareholder money that could have been saved for the minorities if bloody race and Australian Earth movement and haulage were doing it for him. Geez, they'd do it economically,

wouldn't they? Bloody Packer and Cowan's entry be in much a better spot if the bloody race was up there on his D sixes and D eights and even. Rio. Trucks and trailers mate, Rio would be mate, they'd be able to actually afford to pay a bit more for arcadium because they would have saved this much on the rehab. Yeah, like tell you what anyway, but luckily we're. Doing a Rio Tinto version of Rehab, not a not a nimble miner. Man, but that's the thing race and IAH can actually do a Rio

Tinto quality job. Yeah, quality at a like a a small cap price effectively. That's that is unparalleled expertise in earth moving and haulage. So lucky for all you mining companies out there, race and IAH are not consumed by Rio Tinto at the moment and available right now for make clearing for construction, drilling, building dams. Rehabilitation works post mining which they could have done at Jabaluka Bloody. Right now I can just call them up. Right, that easy? Do you want to do it?

You can call him right now if you want. Quick, quick break. JD just called him and he picked up. Easy as that. Say it Very Yeah. Oh, Oregon. It's bloody cool. That is a very very interesting survey. Super keen. I'm in. The history already up to today is sort of mind bogglingly fascinating, so we'll see where it goes from here and what kind of happens. I think you might be right. I think there might be a little bit left in this one, so wait and see.

Looking at like I was reading a little bit over the weekend about the, the Betaloo gas basin in the NT and that's got mad, mad support behind. Yeah, there's kind of like onshore gas projects sort of getting up off the ground in, in the NT and like it's kind of confusing. Why Like why can't, Yeah, why there's sort of support for some

projects and others. I mean, we've heard about the like the, yeah, tremendous amount of like solar projects that kind of got off the ground and got approved in, in very short order and all the territory as well. Don't know mate. There's some some some some forms of fucking. Some forms of projects are easy to to happen and others just get squashed. Maybe, maybe it's all is good in NT because of the wet season and everything so the IT washes the dust off the solar panels what

you don't need to wash them. So it just shows you how important efficient managing that, you know, social licence is right from the off, you get to sort of manage it. If you like the project you just mentioned, you know how good, Like if you've got the people on your side, you've got the people in power on your side as well, then yeah, you got a much clearer line of sight to actually producing and returning

money for your shareholders. And I think this was the first, this was the first of like the what would you say what the, the flow on of traditional owner mining news stories before, like this was officer before the Mcfillimmys thing. Because the, the, the thing at the start was though, it was like there was 2 sets of people talking to each other. You got the Prime Minister talking to the obviously the

leader. But then like the you got that sounded like ARA, like the the you hear that the mirror people are all for free carried interest, but the leaders not like there's just so much divide in a lot of these stories. Obviously Mcphillimy's was a bit different. It was just a a rogue, a rogue. I think it's a section that wasn't a leader, I think. It's like these this the Mcphillimy's was Section 10 review.

I'm not sure if that was the same thing with Jabaluka I. Didn't. No, no. This was its lease coming up. For exactly, Yeah, I know. But the whole whole thing of like, you know, boss putting forward a, a proposal for a deal and then they're like not prime minister's like nuts going into the National Park and we're squashing it forever. Yeah, it's yes, very. That's been one of the more topical things this year is Australian native title. And sovereign risk, it's been

described as yeah, it's yeah. It is very much so. Yeah. Call it a day, gentlemen. That's bloody. She's been a RIP snorter to start the week. Tell you what, got some minutes out today. Action packed. Oh, surely since we've been doing this, someone's called MMS for a contract like there's Yeah, they're at least probably getting one an hour because who else would you call to move to get? Him where we can.

I don't know who else would you call to build a donger for you then Grounded Construction Group and mate Timmy Taylor Jeezy can whip up a bloody hybrid power station quick as anything with cross boundary energy. Dave Sandvik, Ground Support, CRE Insurance, Rio, Get Onto Them, Greenlands Equipment, Turnkey Mine, Water Management, K Drill, the Drilling Experts, MMTS, Australian Earthworks and Haulage and good old Spark Charts. Odorow Chance.

Odorow. Information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Before making any investment decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

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