Righto money miners, the end of the year is fast approaching and we are just not letting you down because you have Part 2 of the greatest freaking YouTube video in the history of mining and finance. 2nd last episode of the year Maddie, but the content is going up. It's this is like never been point use of use have pioneered fundy predictions because it's just never been done, never been done before and no one will ever do it because it won't be as good as what you boys have
pulled off here. So just if you're thinking about it, just don't even. The reason it's a good episode, Maddie, is because JD and I say nothing and we just we just smarter than ask to all the talking. Right. I hope. And look, they're not really linked, but if don't forget to, if you're just tuning in today, don't forget to listen to Part 1, which is before, which was released yesterday because there's just that much knowledge. We had to split it into two episodes.
Yeah. Two unique and awesome shows, yeah. It's it's like Seinfeld you don't have to listen to. You could listen to this first if you want. Well, they're not linked. There's not much history besides knowing that Elaine and Jerry slept together early on anyway. Other than that. Serve yourself a mosh bite. Though while I'm on the topic, let's get into Part 2 with the Fundy predictions for 2024.
That's rivet. 2025, yes. John Ford, thanks for joining us on Money of Mine. I'm excited to hear your highest conviction prediction for 2025. Yes, I've just got to do something 1st. I'm going to put my Harry Potter prediction hat on and that would make it. Yeah, we got a few of them going around. Jonas, what are you Yeah, Look, OK, we're.
All down here. Anyway, look, I think one of the highest conviction predictions is that the TSXV Junior Resources stocks will outperform the ASX, the ASX stocks because ASX has been trading at a premium to North American valuations for some time. And the, the number of companies that have come through and told me, oh, we're looking at ISX listing as in from North America is the big numbers this year.
So I just think, you know, as soon as those listings happen, things will turn and also starting to see a little bit more, you know value just as we go into the end of the year in some of our some of our North American holdings. I like that one mate. It's yeah definitely. Yeah, it's actually non consensus too. So you it might also be a non consensus prediction what or if
you've got a different. 10 look up, you know, because you know, it's hard to work out what consensus is, but I'm pretty sure consensus is that, you know, gold prices will sort of trend lower over the next, you know, every year for the next 5 years. That's what most brokers usually
put into their decks. So I'm going to say, you know gold price to strengthen further next year just because I don't think the you know the buyers of gold primarily the central banks have have finished that their purchases and that they won't for some time. Yeah, fascinating. We'll see if that one washes through to the equities over the next year. How about the best performing commodity for 2025? Yeah. Look, I'm going to go with silver.
I've just done a bit of a trip overseas and you know, every commodity that got discussed had its pros and cons, but there were no detractors for silver. And I think, you know, silver's got that industrial and precious metal pricing to it. It's still really trading on an industrial basis at that sort of
plus 80 to one to gold ratio. And I think that you know we could see that start to shorten and and you know sometimes in past it's got down to 35 to 1. So if that happens, you know silver will do will do very well and definitely outperform gold. Awesome, mate. And the flip side of that was the the grimmest outlook for a commodity you've got in 2025. Yeah. Look, that is probably not, not too popular, but I don't know if copper's going to do that well
next year. I think it might do well, you know, from, you know, 18 months out. But but next year I think it could be, could be soft again. We've had a fairly soft year for copper this year. And you know, I think there are some in a substitution substitutions happening in, in the industrial world in, in things like air conditioning and you know, other, other, other uses. So yeah, just, you know, maybe copper won't have a has still in a year, next year.
Might be waiting one more year for that copper narrative to to play out by the sounds of it. Yeah. Brilliant, John, thanks so much for, for, for joining us and yeah, wish you the best for for Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Yeah, Absolute pleasure. Thanks, guys. Have a great one. Emmanuel dat dat capital. Thank you so much for contributing this year to our crystal ball predictions.
This this segment's a bit, you know, irrelevant because you already you already replied what your answers were over a tweet. Yeah, yeah. Sorry for spoiling the surprise. That's all right. We'll, we'll let you tell that in audio format. But what's your highest conviction prediction for for 2025?
Yeah, sure. My highest conviction call is WA One Resources. One of my favourite stocks as everyone probably knows and why I think this is going to perform well for 2025 is that we've seen the company de risk the Project Lean deposit significantly this year in 2024.
And we're really expecting to see some other key catalysts such as you know, further met studies, a bit more resource definition to a higher sort of level of confidence and then the maiden MRE and also quite likely, you know a feasibility study. I would say it's probably towards the latter part of next year at this point.
And notwithstanding or the other sort of expected workflows that you typically see with the resource development like permitting, you know for the environmental studies et cetera, I think that the resource itself is something that's really scarce world class and assets like like this of this quality and calibre and within the jurisdiction are very highly sought after. So that's why, you know, it's sort of one of the firm favourites in our view.
Awesome. Manny, I'll just quickly disclose that a couple of us at Money mine hold shares in WA 1-2. Second question, what is your most non consensus prediction for the coming year? I like Alcoa and I like Alcoa because we've seen sort of a number of quite material developments in the aluminium space which Alcoa is a vertically integrated producer
and industry participant within. And these changes most notably at the recent Chinese value added tax or that refund changes to the VAT refund policies for Chinese exporters. Yeah, just very briefly, Chinese VAT is 13% and if that 30% isn't being refunded back to exporters, it effectively raises their cost of production by that same amount.
So I think that really does bode well for ex Chinese producers such as Alcoa. And I think given the stocks sort of valuation multiples and you know, it's, it's the multinational sort of footprint and and participate in all three levels of the aluminium supply chain, I think it could do quite well And it's it's fairly unloved or has been unloved for for some time now. Brilliant mate. And which commodity over the YEAH 2025 do you have the best
outlook for? Sure. I think that this is, you know, it's a bit of a ballsy call, I guess, from my end. I'm given how it has performed in 2024, but we think oil will do pretty well. That's probably for a number of reasons, most notably, as we've seen in recent weeks, the recent unrest in the Middle East, specifically in Syria for now, and I think it is no oil. You know, it's, you know, essential demand is fairly
inelastic. So it's really, you know, the supply side disruptions you've got to be conscious about. And ultimately, if, yeah, if there's further unrest in the Middle East, then that does provide strong potential for the oil price to to rise substantially. We never know, right? That's what we're in for. Absolutely. And on the flip side of that one, what commodity is going to be the worst performing?
I would, I've picked lead for the worst performing commodity and why I say that is, you know, I've definitely sort of noticed that well, you know, from the demand side, it's, it's actually really hard to move lead I would say in any sort of major form. I just think about projects like Adriatic metals that that produce will be producing significant amounts of lead as they ramp up towards nameplate, even though they're fairly small producer, someone's going to buy it.
And but once again, demand I would consider fairly inelastic for lead. So to see sort of, you know, incremental sources of supply coming in into the marketplace, I'll probably say that, yeah, it, it doesn't look overly fascinating. You know the supply demand dynamic lead and that's why I picked this as a potentially the worst performing commodity. Lovely work, mate. Yeah, it's those those committees we get the byproduct of other minds always just kind of have a sour outlook on them.
Thanks for making the time, Manny. Yeah, no worries. Thanks guys. Much appreciated Headley without line selection. Mate, we've got to give you credit. You know, I reflected on the the answers to last year's 1 and I think you were the closest to on the money for your prediction. So well done mate, hopefully you can repeat your your fortune telling capability this year. Thank you very much and thanks for inviting me on. I don't know.
There's no such thing as a bullseye in this business, but most of the marks can sometimes do well, can't it? Let's let's get us started for 2025. What's the highest conviction pick for next year, Headley?
Look, I think with the gold market that we've had this year and some of the suggestions of M&A and even instances, I think well my highest conviction pick for next year is that we start to see M&A for gold developers, pre production gold companies, drive the prices of those companies and see investors turn back towards it. I think there's a lot of reasons pointing to that supportive commodity, but also a really supportive market that needs the answers in companies that are
funded to develop them. West Perth will be cheering that one mate. What about the the non consensus pick for 2025? Well, look, you can't you can't pick that Kamala Harris is going to win the US election anymore Kenya. So I better move on from that one. Thought this one through a lot. And I I think there's there's probably a sense that from a lot of people that 2025 will be a year where commodities go, OK, they might not RIP, but they'll probably be all right.
And and that'll reflect well for some of the bigger miners. I, that's probably the thing about next year that I'm the least comfortable with. I, I don't see a dismal year for commodities, but I don't see a strong year and I think we'll probably see more wash out than wash in as far as commodity prices go. So if it was going to be sideways to a little bit down overall, that would probably
match my expectation. And I, I think that's probably going to be worse if you're a ABHP or a Rio because your price has probably defied market trends and certainly fared a lot better than the explorers and non producers. So I think there's probably a bit of money tied up there with some optimism attached to it. So my non consensus call would be that it's a, it's a weakish year for BHP and Rio. Again, not not dismal or miserable, but weakish.
Awesome. And to to pin you down to 1 commodity for the coming year, what's going to stand out from the pack? I can't take my eyes off gold and I think if if I was to look around the island of people who think that gold is going to go up in 2025, it's going to be pretty crowded. But you know gold when it moves into bull markets, it tends to be multi year multiples of return and we're up a bit over two times in this bull market
for gold. So I think that basis probably sits OK with me. The dynamic of more and more central bank buying I think is a a strong driver. I don't see a reason for that to go away in 2025. But I'd add to it that when gold starts to move, it's not like other commodities. Gold doesn't butt up against a roof price that's dictated by how much pain buyers are feeling or what a value in use is, like copper or iron or any of those
things. Gold tends to go up because more, more and more people think it's going to go up. And, and that fundamental law on its own can be good for a good part of the bull market in gold as well. So I I think there's a fair bit going for that medal in 2025 and possibly beyond. What about the worst performing
commodity heavily? If I'm going to make too many friends saying this, but I mean, I look across the suite of the key mineral commodities and again, I don't think it's going to be a dismal year, 2025, but I just struggling to see super optimistic drivers, particularly of some of the larger market ones. And in my sights I suppose. Copper sits, it's not far below it's highs of 2024. I think it peaked in May this year. That was very close to it's all time high, about $5.10 a pound.
It's sitting at about 4:20 a pound at the moment. So it's not really too far off the top end of its trading range. Most other mineral commodities peaked in 20/21/22 and they're down somewhere between 2530 forty, 50%. So copper still sits, you know, reasonably strong compared to a lot of those other commodities. I, I, I buy everything that people say about, you know, energy transition and things like that.
It's a, it's a commodity for the new economy, the old economy and every other single economy that exists. But I really struggle to feel that copper could sort of burst much higher. And in fact, I think there's probably, that's a market where there's a lot of speculation tied up. So if there was anything to wash out in a market that looks as if the economy is not going to support rampant growth, then copper would be my target for
that. So I think copper will have a weaker year than most other mineral commodities. That's not to say it's going to have, it's just more to say that it would be weaker. So under the under the trend line rather than above it. Contrarian mate, I like it. Thank you so much heavily. We yeah, really appreciate your contributions and I look forward to having you on the potty again next year. Thank you very much gents.
It's, it's been terrific chatting to you this year and I'd love to join you again anytime you want, but please have a happy Christmas and a safe and healthy New year and I look forward to chatting to you again in 2025. All the very best. How many mines do you think in 2025 are going to be like? Thank God we had CRE do that insurance policy for us. 5:00 It's at least five. It's at least more than you can count on one mate.
Unexpected stuff happens all the time in the industry and and as a mining company, you're like, Jesus, I didn't. I'm so glad that my insurance policy had me covered for this thing that I did not expect. Well, it's only one every one every two months for 2025. Yeah, yes, yes. But mate, these floods are like one in 500 year floods that seem to happen every year. So like, yeah, these things
happen a lot. So what do you think the main ticket items are going to be that people are going to thank CRE for? Probably floods. Floods, weather, civil unrest, Business interruption? Yeah. Property damage, Fire. Fire. If you say 5, you know, thankful sort of events, but I'm going to say 365 nights of mining execs just sleeping peacefully at night because they know they're looked after. You cannot put a price on that. You can. It's called a premium. That's it. But you buy each month.
But yeah, oh, peace. It's worth it for a good. Sleep, Peace of Mind and and that's but that's mining execs across coal, that's across metalliferous, that's across Australia, Africa, every country in the world, lively precious metals based metals, construction, renewables CRE do the whole thing. Make sure you are getting looked after. Make sure you are sleeping. Make sure you have spoken to Dave, Adam and Steve. Yeah. Thanks guys. In the show, notes Joe CRE. And thanks for the Christmas
hand for two. Thank you CRE. Good. Yeah, good prenup brittle in that. Thank you CRE. Kingsley Jones, long time no talk, but welcome back to Money and Mine. We're really excited to hear what you think is your highest conviction prediction for 2025. Yeah. Well, look, it's going to be a big year, I'm sure, with the US election, Donald Trump coming back, you know, there's a lot of enthusiasm in the United States for everything American and all the potential on offer.
We also have the huge kind of ongoing strategic competition between China and the United States. And so in the metal space, look, I think most, most viewers would be thinking, well, you know, it's going to be some of these exotic metals that make the big move, you know, maybe antimony as we've already seen, or germanium or, you know, gallium or, or something like that. I don't disagree with that. But I'm calling for my big pick this year, one that hasn't been
on the radar. And the logic really is we're very concerned in places in the West with the stuff that China controls. But actually if you think about it, China's concerned about the stuff the West controls. And and so my pick is beryllium, which is a metal that the US controls production of. It's not well known in in mining circles because there's really only one major mine in the United States in Utah. And that mine is owned and operated controlled by AUS listed company called Material
MTRN. MTRN for those who are familiar with it. It's got a diverse business, but beryllium is a big component of it. It's been in a bull market since 2020. Beryllium, the metal, if you check out the trusty US Geological Survey, you know, mineral commodity summaries, not a big market. You know, it's measured in hundreds of tonnes a year. I think the US, United States is about 190 tonnes. Pretty small beer in terms of
money on offer, but good prices. So through the period up until 2022, you know, beryllium was kind of like in a steady state, $660 a kilo, 600,000 to $700,000 a tonne, mostly produced in a special alloy with copper. And its main use is rocketry and electronics, aerospace and defence, but it also has a big role in nuclear weapons. It's used as the Tampa. In thermonuclear devices. And so China is also a producer of beryllium, but has growing demand associated with its
aerospace industry. We think the market's starting to tighten up quite a bit. That price of $600.00 ran in 2023 to $1400 a kilo, $1.4 million a tonne. So we think material will make good money that's already making good money, but we think actually this is a metal off the radar with a very specific single mine investment thesis. Fantastic and appreciate the background because my beryllium knowledge is not what it could be.
You might have answered this one as well, but have you got another non consensus pick for the coming year? Yeah. Look, the big one would be I think precious metals will have an off year because they have had such a good year this year and so many other metals have have really been, you know, having taking it in the neck. Just look at lithium, look also at iron ore. So look, I think that the metals in general will probably have a
recovery year this year. We think there'll be a continued enthusiasm pro growth risk on environment as we've already seen with crypto, you know, obviously crypto, precious metals complex, they tend to move a little bit together, crypto more than gold and silver, but I think this will be possibly a down year for gold and silver. So a bit of a retracement there. Great mate. What about the best performing commodity? Yeah. Look, this is a the related to the top thematic pick with beryllium.
But let's elaborate because there are many possible choices here, particularly amongst the minor medals, the critical minerals, the specialty medals, however we choose to call them. So look, I think that, you know, in the in the mainstream discussion, there's a lot of talk about this US, China
competition. And mostly it centres on things that the USA declares they're short of the critical minerals like rare earths and vanadium and niobium and all kinds of things like that, which are dominated by China.
I don't actually think they're going to be a big place for price movements to the upside simply because they're dominated by China. And China actually has its investment ducts lined up to expand production in friendly countries to China, mainly in Africa and Latin America when it needs the mineral. So look, I don't think there's going to be a strong environment for those metals, notwithstanding the enthusiasm for new discovery which is
there. So putting those aside, we have to sort of flip the script and ask which are the medals that USA actually dominates demand off. So move away from this idea that there's going to be a supply constraint and look more at demand, but look at the shock to that demand. And I think that in the United States where they clearly do have a strong, strong position
is in aerospace and defence. You know, if you looked at the biggest exports that the United States has, China, it's things like petrochemicals, semiconductor equipment, semiconductors and jet planes, you know, mainly civilian of course. So when you look at the USA and you look at the say, the current defence expenditures, the prospect that we're using up a lot of war material in places like Ukraine with the Ukraine Russia war and so on.
There's a lot of inventory drawdown in U.S. defence stocks. And that's going to translate to new builds of mostly missiles, but also things like aircraft and so on. And not only in the United States, obviously in in Russia and China as well, and also places like India. So with that in mind, you know, my list is a target list of aerospace metals, which are mainly hard metals, light metals or refractory metals and also nuclear, so including civilian nuclear and military nuclear in this.
So if you look at closely at that, there's a short list of metals and things like tungsten, which is hard, titanium, which is light, Other metals like zirconium and hafnium, which mainly have applications in the nuclear industry, particularly in high purity form. And then some other exotics like rhenium, which is a very, very rare metal that is mostly a product of copper and molybdenum smelting and it's used in military aircraft in percentages up to about 9% of turbine blade
can be metallic uranium. And then finally, you know the one that I had in my big pick at the beginning, which is beryllium. And beryllium, it's not a big market, but it's vital to the aerospace industry, particularly rockets. And you're going to see NASA going back to the moon soon. China's going to the moon, airline's launching rockets like there's no tomorrow, and also the missile industry is cheering them up.
Single use is always best for growing demand, and there's nothing like the military for a single use product. So I think that beryllium is going to have a a good couple of years here and I think it's the Chinese that are going to struggle to fuel their own demand and that's what's going to tighten this market. the US withdrew material is pretty focused on local demand in the United States. But we think there's going to be a surprise to the upside.
That process started in 2023. We think it's going to only strengthen going forward as this demand from the space industry grows. So that's my top pick there, right there, Beryllium to the upside and you can play that. The best way to play that is not to buy the metal, but to buy the stock material. Fantastic. And last 1 Kingsley, what's going to be the worst performing commodity next year? Yeah, I, I'm, I'm horrified to say this, but I think it's going to be gold or silver and, and
not, not not in a terrible way. I'm actually a bull strictly on on both gold and silver long term. But I think because they had such a good year in 2024 when other medals were having a bad year. I just think that, you know, reverse and reverse of the dogs of the Dow. Well, similar to the dogs of the Dow theory in stocks, you know that last year's perform worst performer does does well this year. I think there's so many bad performers.
In the middle. Space in 2024 that it's going to be hard for gold and silver to keep up. And in fact, I think they're going to retrace a modest amount of this year's splendid gains. So for the bulls in the market, it's not going to be a terrible year. They might see a 1015% retracement. And of those, I'd say silver being the high beta mill is is going to move down, down more. So I don't think it's going to
be a terrible year. I think -15% would be the limit of the downside in the silver mine. Fantastic. Thanks for joining us and sharing your predictions for 2025, Kingsley. Pleasure to be with you guys again. All the best for the new year and have a great holiday season. Likewise, Warren Gilman, thank you so much for joining us for the Crystal Bowl edition of Money of Mine. I'm very curious to know what your yeah your most high conviction prediction is for 2025.
Well, you said it could be thematic stock, specific commodity. Mine's probably all of those things and unfortunately it's probably not going to be a surprise and it's going to be consistent with last year, which is the whole, you know, energy security idea. Uranium is the way to play it and next Gen is the stock to play it. So thematic stock specific, commodity specific, those are all the predictions largely the same as last year, played out reasonably well.
We hit a new all time high for next Gen during the course of the year, so that's good. Check that box. Uranium spot prices are not behaving well, but term prices have hit a new high barring, you know, the the big peak in 2000 and seven, 2008. So term prices, that's a new high tech and the thematic continues to play out obviously with the the big players like Microsoft and Amazon and Meta and all of those guys. Getting into the nuclear game.
So all of those boxes largely checked, but going to continue that prediction for 2025 and you know uranium in the next Gen is the way to go it. Fantastic, Warren. And how about your most non consensus pick? Well, I guess it depends on your gentleman's call with respect to what is consensus. I, I can give you a view on all
sorts of different things. You know, one of the things that I'm quite bearish on is notwithstanding I'm I'm bullish on uranium and one might think that I'm therefore bullish on a energy thematic and often times uranium trades hand in hand on a daily or even hourly basis with oil. But I'm bearish on oil for a multitude of reasons. I don't know if that's non consensus. I think it is, but I'm bearish on oil and so I'm bearish on carbon based energy. I'm also continue to be bearish
on lithium. I don't know if your friends in your neighbourhood, your neck of the woods, you're all big lithium players and you're always calling the bottom and saying hey, it's about to turn. Well, I don't think it's about to turn. You know, we had Rio announced today that they're spending 2 1/2 billion on the expansion in Argentina. And we get more and more, you know, non Aussie players saying we're going to build, we're going to expand. Just what the world?
Needs is another expansion or another new lithium. I mean, it's the last thing in the world that the world needs. So I can't see how we can have a turn when some people are shedding in supply while others are getting into the game and adding to the supply, the oversupply. So if those are non consensus then that's my vote. Brilliant, right? And what about the the best performing commodity for 2025? I'm going to guess. Go out on a limb here and guess it's uranium.
Yeah, it's uranium and you know, the spot price hasn't been performing and I think there's a little bit of management going on by certain players in the market with respect to the spot price. I think that'll clear by year end. And you know, Bammel has a forecast I think for next year, average price of $120.00 a pound. You know, Bank of America, you know, that's more than 50% increase from where we are today. So I'm with Bammel and I think it's going to be a a great year for for uranium.
And have you got another worst performing commodity if we set aside the the oil and lithium sectors? Yeah, well, you know, it's probably not non consensus, but. The same story on nickel. You know, I was a bear on nickel this year. I think I voted for that last year as my worst performing commodity. I don't see any reason to change that. I mean, you've got the US bringing funding.
To new mines and expansions in Brazil to have security of supply again, just what the world needs a new nickel mine in Brazil when we've got. Vast oversupply coming out of Indonesia and the Philippines, so unfortunately I don't see a turn in that one either. Not too many friends in the in the nickel space. Warren, thanks for coming on the show and hope you have a great Christmas and New Year.
Same to you gentlemen. Have a great 1 and I look forward to watching the episode and hearing everyone else's views. Very. Amazing. 2025 Prediction for the most successful geophysical survey conduct a Bodger dash sat. That's that's a certainty I've got. I can one up that on the prediction front, I reckon the biggest discovery of 2025 will be will be a result of. Dash sat. Dash sat Nathan Dash's like industry leading geophysics capability will be responsible
for the next big discovery. I reckon it's going to be pretty imminent with the 8 gravity crews currently working in WA. I reckon one of those crews are going to find it. 8 88 with a basic account. Mogi. Which is the hub. So wait, I reckon we're going to be putting A1 in front of that eight. I think there's going to be 18 gravity crews and mate, there's
going to be drones. There's going to be on the ground, above ground geophysics down flat stick in 2025 by Daish sat in WA. So I would be getting calling them now. So that is the Oricon they're going to absolutely take off in WA for GI Fizz. Maddie, I heard tell me, tell me if I'm speaking at a school here, there's a 10X increase in the number of targets that you will have on your tenements if you use these guys for your GF is work. Yeah, yeah, that is, that is
100% correct, like. 10 times. I thought it heard that one right. Yeah, I've heard it. I've heard it 10 times. That is 10X like. That I'm excited to go into 2025 knowing people will be using data set and there's that much exciting exploration going on out there in the industry. Yeah, and I I just think especially with the emerging copper theme deep hidden undercover, don't drill for it. Don't just start poking holes in. Don't waste your shower does.
Get Daish Sat to find the anomaly and give you the target 1st go Nathan Daish. Merry Christmas to Daish Sat and I look forward to seeing them fucking everywhere in WA next year. Beautiful. Warren Erwin, thank you for joining us. I'm excited to hear your highest conviction prediction for 2025.
My highest conviction prediction would be colonial coal as text coal assets get sold, met coal assets and then you know Peace River coal gets sold by Anglo and the Australian assets get sold by Anglo. Anglo and Kestrel being put up for sale and having many many multiples of bidders.
I think eventually, once the producing assets are out of the way, there's going to be quite a bit of demand for the extraordinary assets Colonial Coal has in a tremendous jurisdiction with infrastructure and massive amounts of met, high quality met coal. I think they'll be they'll be in demand by all the people who missed out on the bidding. Yeah, I like it. I I'm now curious what your most non consensus prediction is. Why?
Yeah. Well, one other thing before we get to the non consensus, one other thing too, given you're you're in Australia, What I'd keep an eye out for is what's going to be happening for any former Rio Tinto guys. Take a look at the Walker Dawson will be drilled this this May by a Canadian company called GPM metals. That'll be something to watch for many people at formerly at Rio or even at Rio now they may have heard of the Walker Dawson.
It had legendary, legendary proportions within Rio Tinto for quite some time. So it'll be drilled. Non consensus would be I'm not a fan of battery metals, batteries right now or not of the performance you need to be. So we don't know what the chemistry is. So to spend three years finding some battery metals, another three years permitting, three years building and then you know, massive cycle times when we really don't know what'll be
in the batteries. It'll actually bring the mainstream on. You know, nobody's nobody's buying battery, nobody's buying electric vehicles here. The sales of stall they're sitting on, sitting on people's lots. I'm not sure if it's the case in Australia, but that's pretty much died off. So that's very non consensus. Not touching battery metals, yeah. Very interesting to hear hear that one and hear the Canadian perspective. Warren, how about the best performing commodity for next
year? Well, the thing the best and the worst performing, I take it. You know, it's tough to do a year prediction on commodities, but let's put it this way. The reason I'm positive on METCO would be my choice. The reason I'm positive on it is certainly from what I've seen, we've got lots and lots of companies looking for uranium, yet we have 0 companies in the world looking for METCO. Nobody's looking for it. It's out of favour.
Everybody hates it, yet India needs a monstrous amount of it over the next decade or subsequent decades to build their steel inventory up within their economy. So I'm a big fan of met coal. Obviously, there's a lot of buyers of recent met coal assets. They share my view. So I'm a big fan of met coal. I think there'll be a lot of money made in the sector over the next while. And the flip side of that one, we're in the West performing for 25 of. Course it's going to be uranium, right?
Everybody's super pumped on uranium. I'm a huge fan of nuclear power, but you know, we've just had a four fold increase in the price of uranium off the 17 level where I was piling in very odd situation where you have you know, people have been calling for 150 two $100 uranium for a
long time hasn't happened yet. You know, the, the supply demand deficit seems to be met every year, despite the fact that spud yellow cake and H1 speculators out of the US and globally have been hoovering up uranium out of the market to the tune of at least 100,000,000 lbs, which is, you know, more than half a year's consumption of, of uranium. So if that ever happened in the the other thing too is at a price of 75 bucks, pretty much every uranium property I've seen
in the entire world is economic. So you put that in copper terms. Can you imagine somebody stepping into the copper market, buying half the year's consumption out of the market, having the price of copper at a level where every project that you're aware of is economic and it's already gone up four times and you have rabid interest in it and everybody's screaming it's going to 150 or 200. And then on the on the demand side, you can't build reactors fast enough.
There's a base of 440. Chinese are building like 50 plus by the time they come on, it's not it's low single digit growth and demand. So I mean that doesn't include, you know, our reactor base is old. Most a lot of them were built, you know, in the 70s, eighties. So they're getting old and some of them will have to be decommissioned and cannot be extended. So how's that for a negative view on a commodity that everybody loves and thinks I'm an idiot for not thinking it's
going to 200 bucks? I get a few people talk and thanks again for your time Warren, appreciate it. Thanks, gentlemen. Have a great day. Thank you. Dan Porter from Pure Asset Management, thanks for joining us. I am keen to hear your highest prediction pick for 2025 mate. Yeah, thanks guys. Look, I, we're all sort of sitting here on the East Coast, particularly of Australia, wondering where the hell we're going to get some gas from for
next year. And for me, I think gas prices are going to get a RIP and that's not on the basis of oil prices going higher. I actually think all will be an underperformer. But we've got a serious problem in the East Coast of Australia. And I think IMO just released a report a couple of days ago. Suggesting the same. Thing when I talk to suppliers out there, all potential want to be supplies, certainly gas prices, the Ford curve is turning up higher than $20 over the next six months.
So for us at Pure, we do have a couple of investments in that gas space. But for me, I think East Coast gas prices are going to be the place to be over the next 12 months. Nice mate, what about your most non consensus prediction for 25? Look, I actually think iron ore's going to have a decent run. I know everyone last year was talking about iron ore coming off sharply. It has come off a bit over the course of the year, although it's bounced back a little bit
now. But I think with a bit looser monetary policy, you're going to get some threats of tariffs obviously coming out of the US and that's going to have a a negative impact on growth rates around the world. I think people are going to be forced to do some stimulus at the end of the day. And I think the bulks are going to be one of the beneficiaries of that.
And I think I know it's probably going to be the the way to play that given that you might have to say the Chinese actually have to pull the trigger and do some proper stimulus now and sentiment towards it has been pretty negative. So I think you could get a sharp online than that one. So that'd be my most non consensus people though have to caveat and probably not not super aware of where everyone else is going with iron ore forecast at the moment.
But for me, I think that's going to be my my best anti consensus 1. I like it. Casting aside maybe East Coast gas for the minute, and iron ore for that matter, what's going to be the best performing commodity? Look, I actually think tungsten's going to have a good run here. Let's see Trev laughing then. I thought this might be coming.
We're obviously heavily invested there, but it's look, I tungsten has been a surprisingly good performer in the last two years and you've got a massive supply and demand in balance between West Coast western markets. Sorry. And and what's produced out of China. So you've got 85% of product coming out of China and governments around the world are scrambling to get tungsten's
supply. I think there's going to be a pretty big boost in defence spending, particularly at the US and the US doesn't have a reliable source of tungsten. There's definitely a lot of interest in Australian supply of tungsten. It's a good supplier, it's a stable partner for the most part being on which government's in control, but for the most part we're pretty stable on on laws
and jurisdictions here. So I think Tyson's actually going to have a good run in the next four months and it flies under the radar quite a bit. But we've seen a fair bit of activity in the space in the last six months. Certainly there's a few domestic producers there. Some have been better performers than than others, but I think there's some. Good by mention. Behind that price now it's at a very tight point in the market
as well. And we can see that by the lack of pricing movement over the last two years. It is very, very tight. So Tyson and I think it was probably one that's going to be a small, small exposure for most players, but I think it's going to have a good run. Nice, Stan. And flip side of that, what's the worst performing commodity? Look, that's a, that's a tough one over the next over the next year. I actually think oil's got some downside here.
You know, it's economy obviously between East Coast gas markets and oil. Usually they do run gas prices and oil run in conjunction, but there's differences for that this year which are pretty specific. But I think with global economic growth coming off the boil, I think oil is probably the one that gets towards the most.
There's probably some downside. As we know in resources markets, yesterday's loop uses loses are usually tomorrow's winners, but I think oil is probably most susceptible to some more downside from here. Great. Thanks for sharing your your picks, Dan, and looking forward to seeing how they fare over 2025. Yeah, thanks guys. Look forward to catching up next year. Beautiful. Have a nice Christmas. Yeah, cheers.
Bentley Adebury, thank you so much for for for dialling in all hours of the the, the morning night anytime for you. But we're we're glad we've got you and we're very keen to know what your highest conviction prediction for 2025 is. Well, highest, highest conviction prediction for 25 is that everything I say in the next something that I say in the next 5 minutes is going to be wrong. So that's. That's always good.
Always a given, right. I mean, look outside of that, I think there's actually a lot of uncertainty out there, especially that we see had conversations about this past couple weeks. But so I'll say conviction wise, not that high, but I, I think there's if you want to look from someone to, you know, I guess deal in the financial markets, a good, a good conviction play is to, you know, be be long volatility in, in some of the, I guess metal like PGM space right
now. I think it's a good thing to be long volatility in especially Palladium, which based, you know, it kind of means right, you're down the lower nines then play some upside to it. Don't, don't, don't hold your breath for, you know, a Palladium going back to like 1200 maybe. But yeah, I think there's a good, there's good movements in there and that's that'll be my highest conviction is just volatility in in PGMS. How about your most non consensus pick?
So I had to I had to message Trav about this one before it'd be like, what? What are the consensus going into next year? And his answer was funny, but I would say non consensus though just from a similar to answer the one I just gave for #1 actually I would say short gold, not necessarily because I'm bearish gold in the long run, but just because when the market gets so weighted in One Direction, you have you have the recipe for something sharp in
the opposite direction. And if there is any, let's say market sell off in the financial space just like financial paper markets, then I think gold would be right for a steep pull back was something we saw somewhere in 2020, right, COVID happened and it was one of the sold off pretty hard. So similar concept to that. I'll just go with that for now. I like it, Bentley. And how about the best
performing commodity for 25? So I met with some of the tin barons last week and jokes aside, actually do the look. The tin con market's very, very tight. Let's say we've seen some smelters out in China starting to basically use their tailings piles, which would be very low percentage, 10 to, you know, feedback into their smelters. And then, you know, we have a lot of demand for it as well. And it's just not a market that's going to correct very
quickly. And even though prices dip back below 30,000 and 10 metal on the LME, we think that makes it, you know, pretty, pretty strong outlook for 25 and beyond. So I'll go 10. Beautiful. I like it, Bentley. And last but not least, what's going to be the worst performing commodity next year? So in the metal space, I got 2. I think I'll start with alumina. So not aluminium, but alumina. There's just a lot of capacity coming online, especially in the first half of the year.
So it might take a few months to trickle through, but we're talking about millions of tonnes of capacity coming on in Indonesia, India, and I think at least somewhere as well. Yeah, I, yeah, it's look had a great run and it's not that necessarily bearish, super bearish alumina. But with the capacity coming online, it should rebalance that market out a little bit. And you know, aluminium I think is where you'd want to be even on a relative value basis for
for next year. And then I'll throw in a second one there and I'll say not crazy about zinc. So concentrate markets are tight as well, but fundamentally the middle markets I think a little a little ahead of itself. So aluminium, Zinc. Zinc stinks continues to stink. I don't think we've ever had a fan of zinc. OK, that's why you laughed on that one, all right? Yeah, well. Awesome Bentley. Yeah, good feel, but. Great to hear your predictions.
And yeah, we're looking forward to seeing how they go over the next year. Thanks for making the time for us. Yep, again, one of those will definitely be wrong. Or if not all. We won't hold you to them. Matthew fish from fire trail. Thank you so much for for joining us on your on your you're actually on on holiday already at Cradle Mountain. It appears we've caught you, which is like we're stoked. You could you could fit us in right before a very scenic hike.
Happy to be here, always happy to make time. Well, let's let's RIP straight in and let you get off onto your holiday feastie. 4 questions for you. We'll start with your highest conviction. Prediction for the coming year, mate. Absolutely. Look, it's been one that I've been talking about for a fair while, so it might be a little bit boring, but we just cannot go past Genesis Minerals.
We think that 2024, which is a bit of an entree for what's coming up in 2025. We think we're going to see significant. Upgrades to resources and reserves, we think we're going to see meal expansions that aren't currently in consensus numbers and then bring forward of the Tower Hill project as well, which will obviously increase the grade profile. So that remains the largest stock in our fund, our largest mining overweight and that is our highest conviction call for 2025.
Really interesting mate. And what about your most non consensus call for for 2025? Yeah, look for those of you, you or. Those people that have seen me around this year, I may have spoken to some people about this, but my my non consensus call for 2025 is is a bit out there. It's the legalisation of uranium mining. In WA. Wow. Huge. Wow, Maddie would be devastated he's not recording this with that right now. He'd be jumping on the table, I
reckon with that one. Is that on the back of a change of government or you think even status quo government that that'll that'll happen? I think so score. I think things are changing. I think things are changing. But it's non consensus for a reason, right? So we'll see. Absolutely. That's a great pick. We'll move on to commodity picks now. What's gonna be the best performer, 50 for next year? We believe the best performer for next year will be croaking coal.
Was tempted to pick box out for this one like given where it's headed just in the last couple of weeks we've moderated our view there somewhat. So yeah, Coke and coal is, is our preferred commodity play from a process standpoint for next year. Awesome and flip side 50 worst performer. Look, it's unfortunate, but we think Rare Earths will be the worst performer of 2025.
We saw what happened last time when there was a refinery or rare earths refinery trying to enter into the market with Linus and what that did to the reverse for us. And we're we're sceptical about what line, I mean Lucas are starting up their refinery will mean and construction of that refinery over the next couple of years. So we're pretty negative on rare earths in both 2025 and into 2026 as well. Fascinating. Appreciate you making the time for us, Fisty.
Look forward to seeing how those those pics go. And yeah, wishing you a good Christmas and New Year. Thank you chaps. Good to see what. There we bloody go. Kudos to you boys. Very well hustled, very well organised, very well executed, as always. Real kudos Maddie, go to. Yes, and our partners but used to did. It Mineral mining sites grounded Sandvik ground support CRA insurance casual daysat saltbush contracting get wet. I reckon that it's the best one. You've done all you, JD.
That's good energy, mate. Thank you. Go you. Thank. You to the money miners who to root. Kill the goods vibes Information contained in this episode of Money of Mine is of general nature only and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Before making any investment decision, you should consult with your financial advisor and consider how appropriate the advice is to your objectives financial situation. And needs.