Veteran journalist and market observer Herb Greenberg -- now senior editor at Empire Financial Research -- says that investors have a distorted view about returns, fueled by the market's post-pandemic rise, that has resulted in a loss of selling discipline. 'Everybody thinks they are entitled to these gazillion percent returns,' he says, and they have lost sight of what it means to have a 'good investment.' As a result, he fears that 'A lot of people will learn a very hard lesson who probably ca...
Oct 14, 2021•59 min
Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, says that bond rates have been moving higher because investors expect central banks to raise interest rates as a response to inflation. He worries, however, that the central banks are ill-equipped to combat inflation caused by supply-chain problems rather than inflation as an offshoot of a normal economic cycle. That could create stagflation, a situation when inflation is high while growth is low, which would be bad for the global economy. Also on t...
Oct 13, 2021•1 hr
Warren Pierson, deputy chief investment officer for the Baird Funds, says that while the Federal Reserve initially suggested that 'transitory' inflation would be here for a matter of months, it's now a much longer definition as the pace of recovery is slower than expected. Still, Pierson says that inflation will abate and eventually give the Fed what it has been hoping for, a level slightly north of 2 percent. Pierson also gives his outlook for fixed income -- covering virtually every bond type ...
Oct 12, 2021•59 min
Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that the global economic recovery has changed its shape -- going from the V-recovery that many people hoped for -- to something more gradual but longer-lasting, largely following the path of vaccination around the world. Kelly also discusses how he is responding to the challenges of a low-yield/rising-inflation fixed-income market. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs identifies five companies that he expects ...
Oct 11, 2021•59 min
Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says that while investors traditionally turn to gold to act as a hedge against inflation, precious metals haven't been as good of a hedge as stocks and other assets. Millman says the market seems to be buying the narrative that inflation is transitory, noting that money has been flowing out of precious metals at a time when most people would expect demand to be high; it has also limited gold's effectiveness in these inflationary, ...
Oct 08, 2021•59 min
Historian Kyle Harper, author of 'Plagues Upon the Earth; Disease and the Course of Human History,' says in the Book Interview today that the coronavirus is just the latest worldwide disease phenomenon and that those past events have spurred positives like developments and negatives like inequality. He discusses the outcomes from history and how current events will impact society and the markets for years. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a brand new fund with an eye on frontie...
Oct 07, 2021•1 hr
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says that the economy has turned the corner from recovery to expansion, and says that concerns over slowing growth miss the point that growth rates will continue to be well above historic rates. Brusuelas says that the Delta variant and its ability to disrupt global supply chains remains the biggest worry for the global economy moving forward, but he notes that he expects talk of inflation and supply chain issues to subside by early 2022; meanwhile, he e...
Oct 06, 2021•1 hr
Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders, says the market's frothy September has pushed it to where he's headed for cash, at least for the short term, avoiding what he thinks will be a short downturn leading into a sideways market and ultimately a buying opportunity, as he expects the market to rebound into a strong bull run that could last six to eight months. At that point, however, Vermeulen says the market's years-long rally could be running out of steam and on its ...
Oct 05, 2021•1 hr
Syed Ejaz, financial policy analyst for Consumer Reports, joins Chuck to talk about the magazine's report released last week which showed that popular apps providing access to credit scores may not offer all of the benefits users expect and come burdened with hidden costs. Ejaz says that, aside from some measure of convenience, consumers would mostly be better off keeping tabs on their credit reports and credit scores on their own. Also on the show, author Dorie Clark, talks about 'The Long Game...
Oct 04, 2021•59 min
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that the long-term trend for the stock market and for nearly every sector still looks strong, but he says the relationship between stocks and bonds needs fixing, which is why he expects a technical correction to give the market some time to breathe and digest the action of the last two years. De Kempenaer expects limited upside potential for a while, but says the downside could be a long slow sideways move or a steeper-but-shorte...
Oct 01, 2021•1 hr
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group -- who joins Chuck at the end of every quarter to discuss the market, investing and his personal battle with Lou Gehrig's Disease -- says that investors need to recognize that the greatest obstacle to their long-term financial success isn't the market and the economy, but the man in the mirror. 'Behavior,' he says in a wide-ranging interview, ' is more important than your investments,' noting that you will 'cause the greatest amount of error in any decision...
Sep 30, 2021•1 hr 5 min
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says supply chain issues, Covid variants and other factors aren't going away, which will leave inflation higher heading into 2022, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to balance interest rates and inflation with changing global growth. Folts says that investors need to respond to the potential trouble by being better diversified outside of the United States, trying to generate more return without taking on too much risk. Al...
Sep 29, 2021•1 hr 1 min
Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investments, says that if inflation were to run at 3 percent or more for all of next year, it would be a significant challenge for both stock and bond markets 'and there may not be that many safe places to hide,' but while he sees that potential danger, he believes that the beginning of 2022 is likely to be where inflation peaks near 5 percent and then settles down to levels that allow for continued growth. It will be slower growth for b...
Sep 28, 2021•1 hr
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager for Sit Investment Associates, says that current causes for investor concern -- the debt ceiling, inflation and more -- are creating volatility and buying opportunities in a market that's on solid long-term footing as it continues to reopen and recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Also on the show, Kyle Guske from research firm New Constructs explains in the Danger Zone why the Allbirds IPO won't fly right from the start, University of Arkansas professor Me...
Sep 27, 2021•1 hr 1 min
Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that the market appears to have shaken off current events in China that were creating downward pressure, and it could soon be back to flirting with record highs and resuming its long climb. Fox noted that his big worry is less about anything he sees in the charts and more about the potential for the economy to have surprisingly slow growth. Also on the show, Erik Herzfeld of Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors says that investors are sacrificing retu...
Sep 24, 2021•59 min
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that markets are facing some resistance in September after seven consecutive months of gains, and he expects that increased choppiness to continue into October, but his long-term outlook remains highly constructive, noting that economic growth from the recovery is being pushed out into 2022 and '23. Sanchez believes that we're still 'in the first half of this economic cycle over the next two or three years where...
Sep 23, 2021•58 min
Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the economic recovery pace in the United States is ahead of most foreign countries and is likely to stay that way for a year or more, but his long-term thinking suggests that changing globalization will use more robotics and artificial intelligence and more to localize production and make it that different countries move through cycles on their own pace, rather than as part of a large group. Also ...
Sep 22, 2021•1 hr
Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, says that Coivd-19 and its variants remain the biggest issue facing the global economy right now because it has slowed the U.S. economy more than expected and it continues to drive expectations lower, at a time when rising inflation is a concern that could put a further damper on growth. Despite the uncertainty, Rick remains largely positive on the economy, provided that inflation spikes remain, as he expects, relatively short-lived. Also on the ...
Sep 21, 2021•59 min
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says that new research from the firm shows that three-quarters of the Standard and Poor's 500 stocks have misstated earnings, and that 215 of those companies have overstated their profits by more than 10 percent. He cites Fortive Corp., which shows reported earnings of $4.62 per share, but with core earnings of 99 cents per share; as a result, Trainer says the $74 stock has an economic book value of roughly $21 per share, making a fair value somewhere ...
Sep 20, 2021•59 min
Niladri Mukherjee, head of portfolio strategy at Merrill Lynch Bank of America Private Bank, thinks that equities will grind higher from current levels, but that progress will be based on a 'different playbook' driven by rising corporate earnings and narrower moves that force investors to dig into the numbers -- to 'get micro' looking at valuation opportunities -- rather than relying on the rising tide of indexes to carry them forward. Also on the show, Steve Seedhouse, managing director of biot...
Sep 17, 2021•1 hr
Rob Isbitts, chief investment strategist at Sungarden Investment Publishing, says that with the yield on the Standard and Poor's 500 is as low as it has been in years, investors trying to find good buys on dividend stocks are looking for the proverbial needle in a haystack. Isbitts, who has developed a new investment factor he calls YARP -- for 'yield at a reasonable price' -- says that yield-oriented investors are taking on too much risk for the distributions they're getting right now, a situat...
Sep 16, 2021•1 hr 1 min
Noland Langford, chief executive at Left Brain Investment Research, says that investors must adjust and deal with the current impact of inflation and continuing low rates, noting that '5 is the new 8,' and that investors may struggle to find good ways to generate a 5 percent yield. To meet that standard, Langord says he has gotten both more aggressive and more selective in using high-yield corporate bonds and preferred securities, and talks about a few examples that meet his investment criteria ...
Sep 15, 2021•59 min
Jan van Eck, chief executive officer at VanEck, says that government policy 'determines the weather' for markets and policy has been 'insanely supportive' of markets and while that is changing slowly he would suggest that investors have no reason to feel nervous while the Federal Reserve continues to support the market. van Eck talks about three multi-year investable trends, starting with the continued low interest rates and how they encourage people to keep borrowing now, but extending to the t...
Sep 14, 2021•59 min
It's a wide-ranging show today with author Alec Ross, discussing 'The Raging 2020s: Companies, Countries, People - and the Fight for Our Future,' and whether the times ahead look more like a Star Trek universe or the landscape of Mad Max. In the Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs sees through the popularity of the Warby Parker IPO to discuss how the stock may be worth no more than 20 percent of its anticipated opening price, and in the Market Call, Jonathan Browne of Robinson Capital t...
Sep 13, 2021•59 min
Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that technical analysis shows that the market at record highs is hiding the fact that parts of the market are not working, and that a number of indexes and indicators -- with the notable exception of the Standard and Poor's 500 -- are flat or struggling. 'I don't see that the rising tide is raising all boats,' Kahn says. 'I don't think the tide is rising.' In the Big Interview, Richard Smith of The RISK Rituals newsletter -- chief...
Sep 10, 2021•1 hr 1 min
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that we're seeing 'the best financial conditions that we've seen in decades right now, and earnings are off the charts,' and while he sees some potential for change due to inflation and interest rate pressures, he says that investors should be listening to the stock market and taking advantage of the good conditions while they last. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com issues a warning for investors in target-d...
Sep 09, 2021•59 min
Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the global markets are positioned well for the future provided that they can avoid significant trauma caused by inflation, and he is worried that the pressures causing current inflation may be more persistent than policymakers expect. If pricing pressures linger and are not transitory -- and Kalish uses shelter costs as a possible example -- they may not show up in inflation measures for more than a year, but they will impact th...
Sep 08, 2021•59 min
Scott Helfstein, executive director of thematic investing at ProShares, says that the economic re-opening from the pandemic is not some sort of rewind, and that to move forward investors should give up on what he described as five fallacies, including the long-held debate about the growth versus value styles of investing. Helfstein also says that investors should recognize that investors should not expect government influence to cool off when the pandemic ends, says that the global supply chain ...
Sep 07, 2021•59 min
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that the economy has entered an economic expansion phase, and notes that these growth phases tend to last a while. She expects this expansion to run for years, driven by fiscal policy and helped along by changes in the workplace, productivity and inventories that have eliminated some of the classic economic impediments to protracted growth runs. Also on the show, Daniel Wildermuth of the Wildermuth Endowment Fund di...
Sep 03, 2021•1 hr
Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle, says that the muni market has had a good summer, but got a bit softer in August and is likely to stay that way while waiting to see how government infrastructure plans and any potential tax increases play out. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com -- for the second week in a row -- makes a classic fund that now is available as an exchange-traded fund his ETF of the Week; one difference this week is that the fund is a cornerst...
Sep 02, 2021•59 min
