Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners , says that stock prices in emerging markets are depressed -- understandably so -- but he thinks they have been too beaten down, which makes the case for emerging markets as a value play right now. That said, Foster says there is not a strong argument for growth investing in emerging markets now because struggles in China, the hub of the emerging markets, are tamping down the potential for growth in the asset class....
Sep 18, 2023•55 min
Michael Baron, portfolio manager for the Baron Partners Fund , explains how the fund came to have nearly half of its portfolio in one stock -- Tesla -- and how his confidence in the company may lead for those holdings to become an even bigger portion of the portfolio. Just as importantly, Baron explains how the Tesla example highlights the way active management and good stock picking can still beat the indexes and deliver superior returns. Also on the show, Carley Garner, senior commodity strate...
Sep 15, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Whitney Tilson, founder and chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research , says he expects the market to be flat to slightly up for the remainder of 2023 -- gaining about 5 percent on top of the 17 percent gains thus far -- and then gaining another 10 to 15 percent in 2023. He expects the "sanguine, strong" economic environment to continue despite the skepticism that has been present -- but which hasn't really slowed anything -- this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi dives int...
Sep 14, 2023•58 min
Jeff Rosenkranz, manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund , says the economy and rate cycle are both reaching inflection points, making it tricky to make moves in fixed income without risking being wrong and facing punishment that's "severe". As such, he suggests moving up in credit quality, avoiding undue risks and starting to lengthen maturities, planning for rates to start going lower in six to nine months when the Federal Reserve has pushed the economy to where inflation finally recedes. ...
Sep 13, 2023•59 min
Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp. , says the trend since October of last year remains up, despite the corrective nature of the last six weeks; that push and pull makes it that Kahn suggests buying only a few solid choices but not buying broadly or getting widely invested because the market's 'just not there at the moment.' Lowry notes that small-cap companies are struggling and he wants to see a resurgence in small-caps to get happy about the market's resurgence and pro...
Sep 12, 2023•59 min
Anastasia Amoroso , chief investment strategist at iCapital , says the biggest surprise in 2023 has been just how resilient the economy has been, but not the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver a soft landing, because economic growth combined with declining inflation and a cautious central bank are the recipe to delay a decline. Amoroso believes there will eventually be a recession, but says it's not imminent unless the Fed becomes too restrictive too quickly. Also on the show, David Trainer, p...
Sep 11, 2023•59 min
Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group , says he expects the stock market to continue higher -- until something interrupts the trend and shows a reason to be bearish -- but he acknowledges that the market is climbing the proverbial wall of worry because 'Things are not as bad as people feared.' Conditions haven't been great, but neither have they been awful, and 'not terrible' doesn't inspire investors to get more adventurous. Also on the show, Mitchel Penn, managing directo...
Sep 08, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Odysseas Papadimitrou, chief executive officer at WalletHub.com , says that concerns over recent news about the nation's credit-card debt are overblown, in part because the numbers released recently by the Federal Reserve aren't adjusted for inflation. WalletHub analyzed the numbers and found that credit card debit levels relative to assets and other metrics show that the consumer is stronger than the Fed number suggests, which suggests that the consumer-driven economy can keep rolling. Also ont...
Sep 07, 2023•58 min
Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities -- which specializes in initial public offerings and private-market securities -- says the run-up in interest rates has changed the risk profile of potential buyers, and makes it harder for new projects to draw the dollars if all conditions aren't nearly perfect. He also talks about the SPAC market -- which he calls a 'house of cards' and a Ponzi scheme -- and how companies that want access to the public markets have to change in order to attract t...
Sep 06, 2023•1 hr
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at the Sierra Mutual Funds , says that while conventional thinking has moved away from a recession being imminent, more difficult conditions for consumers in the fourth quarter will create an economic slowdown that is likely to become a mild recession early in 2024. St. Aubin says stocks might tolerate the downturn well, in part because of the bear market of 2022, and in part because the economic downturn is unlikely to last more than two quarters. Azish...
Sep 05, 2023•1 hr
Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com , says he expects the fall to play out the way it has historically, suffering through September and into October before starting a rally into the end of the year. He says the market has struggled since Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit rating of the United States, but that it has also created opportunities where an investor who dials down and gets into specific trending names can ride out the hot streaks while the broad market gets throug...
Sep 01, 2023•59 min
Meb Faber , chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments , pounded the table for value investments -- and noted that he never even uses the phrase 'pound the table' -- noting that 'some of the opportunity set that exists today for value-style investments is some of the best we've ever seen.' Despite that environment, Faber is not exceptionally bullish for the market as a whole, noting that 'the conditions we have today are much, much closer to very poor broad-based stock r...
Aug 31, 2023•1 hr
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners , says the bond market and Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell 'are like two ships passing in the night,' with the bond market expecting the central bank chairman to cut rates sooner than he might want to, but if Powell raises rates or keeps them higher for longer, it will have a big negative impact on the market. Mullaney may not like the domestic markets particularly well, but he continues to considerit 'the best house...
Aug 30, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Katherine Krantz, chief executive officer at the Center for the Macro Specialist Designation , says she sees no indicator suggesting that 'This time is different,' meaning that elements like the inverted yield curve and the leading indicators -- which typically take 18 months before the conditions they exemplify hit the economy -- are only now starting to impact the economy. She doesn't like the looks of what is ahead. In the Talking Technicals segment, Michele Schneider of MarketGauge.com , say...
Aug 29, 2023•1 hr
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management , says there is a less than 50 percent chance of a recession this year, but adds that it looks like the economy could actually push off the downturn until 2025, with the strong job market and low unemployment basically balancing out bad inflation to keep economic troubles at bay. Also on the show, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the growing crisis in student-loan debt and the steps consumers are hoping legislators will t...
Aug 28, 2023•1 hr
David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- president of Sierra Alpha Research -- says that growth stocks are overextended and he expects that to unwind -- especially for the so-called 'Magnificent Seven' -- leading to choppiness for the rest of the third quarter before an end-of-year rally, with longer-term conditions weakening entering the New Year. Keller notes that forecast maps well with what most observers would have expected entering a pre-election year. Also on the show, ...
Aug 25, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Jeff Weaver, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments , discusses how the money-market fund business has changed as interest rates have climbed to where payouts are at levels not seen in decades, but cautions against going all-in on the short-term savings instruments because when a recession comes -- something he expects for 2024 -- investors who have not started to lengthen out the maturity of fixed income holdings will miss out on the solid longer-term rates available today. Al...
Aug 24, 2023•1 hr
Mervin Jebaraj, a professor at the University of Arkansas who chairs the Economic Policy Survey for the National Association for Business Economics, says the group's most recent poll of members showed a remarkable turnaround of sentiment from just a few months ago. Two-thirds of the economists polled were confident the economy is headed for a soft-landing scenario now, as opposed to the March survey results which showed nearly 70 percent had no confidence in a good outcome. Also on the show, Joe...
Aug 23, 2023•1 hr
Rusty Vanneman, chief investment officer at Orion , says that while the economy has done better than experts forecasts and predictions of a soft- or no-landing scenario are well-reasoned, the leading indicators -- which take a long time to impact the economy -- show that storm clouds remain in place, at least enough so that investors should be cautious. He talks about diversifying into this market to account for those risks. Also on the show, Bryan Armour of Morningstar discusses the firm's late...
Aug 22, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research , says it is possible that long-term recession predictors like the inverted yield curve and leading indicators may not be right this time, but mostly because the economy has been going through a series of recessions in various sectors. At the same time as those niche downturns, Yardeni says there have been simultaneous recoveries occurring in other portions of the economy, creating a counterbalance that has kept the Un...
Aug 21, 2023•59 min
Jordan Lopez, manager of the Payden High Income Fund , says that the healthy economy -- which he sees as being able to avoid a protracted and/or deep recession -- has high-yield securities in a good place, able to pay out returns that beat current inflation rates without much additional default risk. He notes that with a lot of high-yield debt currently having intermediate maturities, companies can be flexible and patient, which will help to guard against rising costs of capital until the rate t...
Aug 18, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union , says that, in hindsight, the economy was never in real danger of a recession because of the strong consumer and with the consumer now getting stronger the economy will be able to move forward at reasonable growth levels. Frick also calls the inverted yield curve and the leading economic indicators 'irrelevant,' noting that conditions were so changed by the pandemic that the key numbers to watch changed. He watches spending, and whi...
Aug 17, 2023•59 min
Financial journalist Allan Sloan -- a seven-time winner of business journalism's highest honor, the Loeb Award -- says that while it appears the country can avoid a recession, America can't avoid long-term financial trouble if leaders in Washington can't find a way to compromise and make progress on financial goals. He says the Fitch Ratings downgrade of U.S. credit is a sign that the markets recognize how intractable the country's political divide is. In The Big Interview, Rohan Reddy, director...
Aug 16, 2023•59 min
Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer for Cambiar Investors , says that rising interest rates have increased the cost of capital for businesses, which is shifting which industries and businesses can thrive. The increased cost of capital is changing market conditions to where value and growth investing are now on a more equal footing, and should be more balanced moving forward. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services , says the economy has had its recession in th...
Aug 15, 2023•58 min
Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners , says the worst is over for the economy -- the worst being the horrible stock and bond market of 2022 -- and that while recessionary conditions exist or may bubble up in some sectors, the overall market is likely to be strong, retaining or growing the gains the market has experienced thus far this year. David Trainer, president and founder at New Constructs puts Wayfair back in the Danger Zone, noting that with the stock havin...
Aug 14, 2023•1 hr
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management , says the slow-developing impacts from the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy 'still lies before us ,' putting the market 'in a vulnerable spot' as it enters August, September and October, historically the toughest months of the year. As a result, he expects a 'tactical correction' late this year, and urges patience while that plays out. Also stressing patience on this show is Jason Brown of The Br...
Aug 11, 2023•59 min
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments , says the stock market's strong run makes investors feel good, but it has gotten to a point where the market is expecting more that a slowing economy that is dealing with inflation can deliver. Thomas says the current earnings recession is problematic -- regardless of whether the broad economy enters a recession -- because it shows that micro issues and what is happening at the company level will be more important than the macro, b...
Aug 10, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Abhay Deshpande, founder and chief investment officer, at Centerstone Investors says the economy is still playing out the last effects of the pandemic, and that a recession is likely to be the end of those financial consequences before 'the normal progression starts to resume.' Deshpande says it will be a 'run-of-the-mill recession,' a mild slowdown that investors will want to muddle through in stocks, rather than seeking shelter in fixed income. Also on the show, Regina Conway of Slickdeals dis...
Aug 09, 2023•59 min
Bill Adams , chief economist at Comerica Bank says that the economy is not headed toward a significant downturn felt across many sectors of the economy, showing up in declining incomes and employment and it lasts for several quarters. While he sees slow growth and a few other issues, Adams believes the Federal Reserve has done enough to avoid a recession, and expects the central bank to wait at least one more meeting before having a rate hike in November to help play out the policies it has been...
Aug 08, 2023•1 hr
Akhil Patel, author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage: How You Can Profit from the Economy's Hidden Cycle' says that the economy is nearing the peak in the long-term cycles his research has uncovered, and that time should be filled with rampant speculative behavior, where investors lose sight of fundamentals. He expects that rally built around confidence and momentum to end when the cycle turns and the long-term cycle he sees quickly reaches its depths. Also on the show, research analyst Megan San...
Aug 07, 2023•1 hr
