Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell updated investors on the key factors driving interest rate policy at the same time as another perhaps even bigger factor, the future of AI, is rocking markets. Jack & Max breakdown Powell’s press conference, the data points to watch, and the AI elephant in the room. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe ...
Jan 29, 2025•33 min
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist for Moody’s Analytics, joins monetary matters to discuss his outlook for the US economy and why he thinks higher yields driven by broad based tariffs are the biggest risk to the US economy. Despite the economic strength he still sees he believes recession risk is elevated, and this risk is being driven primarily by policy uncertainty. He also discusses the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and why he thinks most paths to exiting conservatorship create a lot of pain fo...
Jan 28, 2025•1 hr 7 min
David Steinberg, founder and chief investment officer of Marlowe Partners, joins Jack for a very special episode of Monetary Matters. Steinberg recounts what he learned working for Soros and Scott Bessent at Quantum, and how he developed his investment style of high concentration in single-name equities. David and Jack talk Humanization of Pets, semis, music publishing, and David’s secret pastime which he reveals for the first time on this program. Recorded on January 23, 2025. Peter Lake philos...
Jan 26, 2025•2 hr 35 min
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack Louis Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer at Gavekal, joins Monetary Matters to share his perspective on China in 2025 and beyond. Recorded on January 20, 2025. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow L...
Jan 22, 2025•1 hr 24 min
Almost everyone who works in finance dreams of one day showcasing their trading or investing prowess by starting their own hedge fund, but being a good trader is only one line item in a long list of skills required to be a successful hedge fund manager. Benn Eifert, Managing Partner of QVR Advisors, who himself has built his firm into one that manages $2 billion in assets, discusses the important interpersonal skills, operational considerations, and marketing duties that also fall squarely on th...
Jan 21, 2025•49 min
There are always many narratives about what drives markets higher or lower but increasingly investors are turning to quantitative measures like style factors to decouple the signal from the noise and pinpoint what is actually behind major market moves. In this interview, Chris Carrano VP of Strategic Research at Venn by Two Sigma breaks down the orthogonal market factors that drove asset prices in 2024 and what is driving them so far in 2025. He also examines key moments like the post Trump rall...
Jan 19, 2025•1 hr 20 min
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit vaneck.com or call 800.826.2333 to read and consider the prospectus, containing the investment objective, risks, and fees of the fund. Carefully read before investing. © Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corp...
Jan 15, 2025•1 hr 19 min
If you weren’t in large and often expensive technology stocks you likely struggled as a hedge fund manager in 2024. For small/mid-cap value investors like Kyle Mowery, Portfolio Manager and Founder of Grizzly Rock Capital, who’ve sold their investors a mandate that makes it nearly impossible to go buy the NVIDIAs of the world you can only fall back on communication and the clear expectations you’ve set with your investors. The problems plaguing small cap value managers are not new though, and if...
Jan 14, 2025•53 min
Steve Hou, Researcher at Bloomberg Indices, joins Monetary Matters to share his work on Treasury Issuance patterns and equity index construction. Hou explains that “the supply effect” (i.e. the degree to which issuance of long-term bonds rises bond yields is related to stock/bond correlation). He shares several findings from his work on indices related to pricing power, research and development (R&D), and other factors, and at the end he offers his macro views on bond yields and the increasingly...
Jan 13, 2025•1 hr 46 min
Jack Farley and Max Wiethe of the Monetary Matters network break down the sell-off in stocks after a strong December jobs report and hot inflation expectations reading surprises markets. Recorded afternoon of January 10. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR Follow Jack Farley on Twitt...
Jan 10, 2025•53 min
Mel Mattison, investor, monetary theorist, and former fintech executive, joins Monetary Matters to share how he’s thinking about the next few years for the financial system. Stunned that Mel’s “6,000 by year-end 2024” prediction actually happened, Jack asks Mel why he now expects a violent correction in early 2025 while at the same time extending his S&P 500 forecast to the stunningly high 15,000 level by the end of 2028. They also discuss Bretton Woods 2.0, incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bes...
Jan 09, 2025•1 hr 38 min
When was the last time you heard about an exciting new mutual fund launch? It’s probably been a while. Despite ETFs, hedge funds, and burgeoning asset classes like private credit taking all the headlines, mutual funds still control over $20 trillion in AUM. So, how does one raise assets in the 2020s with a product many associate with a time gone by? Eric Crittenden, CIO and Founder of Stand Point Asset Management, joins OPM to share how his mutual fund has done just that and reached over $1 bill...
Jan 07, 2025•57 min
Jason Cave, Senior Consultant at Potomak Global Partners, has over 30 years in bank and financial regulatory experience having worked at both the FDIC and FHFA. In this interview, Cave explains why he’s expecting a much better environment for banks of all sizes in the new regulatory regime under Trump. He discusses why he thinks the FDIC will finally open up bank M&A, the Basel III Endgame will be at least paused, and what he thinks of the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Follow Monetary Ma...
Jan 05, 2025•1 hr 47 min
Citrini just raised the price of Citrini Research by 25%. Monetary Matters listeners can get access to the LOWER 2024 pricing with this link (offer expires February 15): https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=d11a5439 The cross-asset thematic investor known only as Citrini returns to Monetary Matters. James reflects on his trades of 2024 in his “Citrindex” which was up 65% in 202 (January 1, 2024 to December 23, 2024). Citrini shares excerpts from his “25 trades for 2025” piece at Citr...
Dec 31, 2024•1 hr 54 min
With the end of year approaching and SOFR/IOR spreads widening, Darrell Duffie, renowned and prolific monetary scholar, joins Monetary Matters to share his views on why liquidity strains often appear at quarter- and year-end. Duffie explains his work on the September 2019 repo blowout and shares his findings that timing of bank payments is a better predictor of SOFR/IOR stress than the SOFR/IOR spread itself. Duffie also shares his views on debt-to-GDP levels, the theory that the Treasury has en...
Dec 29, 2024•1 hr 10 min
Having raised over $450m in less than 6 months, Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research and Portfolio Manager of $FCTE, has had one of the most successful independent ETF launches of all time. Despite the seemingly overnight success of his fund management business, the real story is about the steady growth of his research business that feeds into everything they do. He explains how his research business has become a pipeline of investor interest in his ETF business and how research relationsh...
Dec 26, 2024•52 min
Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his outlook on global liquidity from three sources: central banks, cross border flows, and the private sector. Howell expects the liquidity cycle to peak in late 2025 / early 2026 and says "enjoy the party but dance ne...
Dec 23, 2024•1 hr 51 min
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and her outlook on markets and the U.S. economy in 2025. DiMartino doubles down on her call that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and explains why she thinks on January 29 2025 will be the day that the true weakness of the job market will be revealed. Recorded on December 19, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.g...
Dec 19, 2024•1 hr 5 min
Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, business partner and host of Other People’s Money podcast, to break down December’s Federal Reserve meeting. Jack shares why he bought puts prior to the Fed’s meeting and his views for the market after its steep sell-off of nearly 3%. Max and Jack debate to what extent the monetary policy is hawkish, the bull case for the dollar, and how many cuts (if any) the Fed will do in 2025. Recorded just after the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: App...
Dec 18, 2024•38 min
Noel Smith, founder of Convex Asset Management has spent most of his career outside of the world of managing other people’s money. Instead, he traded his own capital as a proprietary trader. Prop traders are famed for generating staggering rates of return, but because they have no interest in raising money, their secrets and strategies generally remain behind closed doors. However, he has decided to bring these strategies to the hedge fund world at Convex Asset Management and while they don’t sc...
Dec 17, 2024•56 min
Vincent Deluard, director of global macro for StoneX, joins Monetary Matters to share why he thinks there is a perfect storm of macro headwinds that in April to May of 2025 may put a halt to the relentless rise in U.S. stocks. Deluard argues that the lower inflation of 2024 will result in a lower cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) adjustment for 2025 U.S. government programs such as Social Security. He thinks a strong U.S. dollar could dent corporate profits and that state and local governments pl...
Dec 15, 2024•1 hr 22 min
Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf consulting, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his current views on stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf expects a >1000 point correction in the S&P 500 in early 2025, and warns that a strengthening Japanese yen could unleash a w...
Dec 12, 2024•57 min
Jamie Carter, Partner and Managing Director at Variis Partners has spent much of his career focused on the world of long-only emerging-market investment boutiques. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Carter discusses the huge differences between building a long only business and a hedge fund business, why launching fund vehicles out of the UK has become more difficult, the differences in raising capital in the US, UK, and Europe, and why he thinks emerging markets are the last hold outs for funda...
Dec 10, 2024•1 hr 17 min
Jack Farley welcomes Max Wiethe, his business partner and host of the Other People’s Money podcast, for a conversation about the job market, the stock market, and the recent central banking conference they attended. Recorded on December 6, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on Twitter https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Jack Farley o...
Dec 08, 2024•1 hr 4 min
A stalwart of the “no recession” camp for many years, Juliette Declercq of JDI Research joins Jack to argue why she thinks that recession is now the greater risk than inflation for 2025 and beyond. Declercq argues that U.S. economy has been growing beyond organic levels by relying upon debt growth and immigration. She explains her bullish view on the dollar, the two-year note, and her views on stocks and bonds. Recorded on December 2, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy...
Dec 04, 2024•1 hr 14 min
Since Aristides Capital’s inception in August 2008, Chris Brown has returned over 1,000% for their investors with a stunning 16-year track record of no losing years. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Brown explains how they’ve been able to sustain these results and grow their business to over $300m in AUM all while operating far from the typical financial centers where hedge funds cluster. They discuss how accumulating a plethora of lower capacity strategies, hiring and working with “well inten...
Dec 03, 2024•1 hr 4 min
Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks financial markets are abnormal. With credit spreads extremely tight, the yield curve flat, and an expensive stock market, Andy estimates that all assets are expensive to cash and that financial markets are required to return to normal in order for inflation to return to normal. Recorded on November 26, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow A...
Dec 01, 2024•1 hr 25 min
Jack is joined by George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc, and Joseph Wang, publisher at FedGuy.com and former senior trader for the New York Fed, to probe the challenges the Federal Reserve faces at its December meeting and the new year. Recorded on November 25, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://x.com/FedGuy12 Joseph’s website: ht...
Nov 27, 2024•1 hr 29 min
Ask anyone and they will tell you it has never been harder to start a hedge fund. That’s why so many of the most successful launches of late have been funds emerging from a prior firm with the backing of the big boss, otherwise known as spinouts. Julian Robertson’s Tiger Cubs are the perhaps most famous spinouts, but it is still an extremely popular trend today. Farid Guindo, CIO and founder of Drill Capital Management is taking advantage of these dynamics to launch his new fund with the backing...
Nov 27, 2024•54 min
Dr. Elham Saeidinezhad, Term Assistant Professor of Economics at Barnard College, Columbia University, and Market Structure Fellow, Jain Family Institute, joins Jack to share her upcoming papers on banks as synthetic hedge funds and interest rate swaps as synthetic funding. Recorded on November 23, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Elham Saeidinezhad on Twitter https://x.com/elham_saeidi Elham Sae...
Nov 24, 2024•1 hr 58 min
