Monetary Matters with Jack Farley - podcast cover

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley
Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.
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Episodes

U.S. Stocks Are Overvalued, But Not In A Bubble | Professor Aswath Damodaran on Equity Valuations, AI Data Center Boom, and “Big Market Delusions”

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm In this deep-dive interview, NYU Finance Professor Aswath Damodaran, the "Dean of Valuation," assesses the current state of the U.S. stock market, describing the S&P 500 as richly priced but stopping short of calling it a bubble. He explores the "big market delusion" inherent in the AI revolution, distinguishing between the profitable "architecture" of chips and the highly speculative future of Large Language Models. Dam...

Jan 25, 202659 min

Breaking Down the Precious Metals Bull Market, Natural Gas, Intel’s Disappointment, & the Small Cap Surge | Jack & Max

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/ Jack & Max break down the bull market in silver and gold, how they are expressing their bullish views via royalty companies, and debate whether we are approaching peak prices. They also discuss surging natural gas prices, what Intel’s disappointing earnings mean for the AI bull market, and the strong performance from small caps so far in 2026....

Jan 24, 20261 hr 10 min

Sell America Trade 2.0 | Andy Constan on Foreign Outperformance, Huge Financing Need, and Bull Case For Short-Term Rates

In this episode, Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors reveals why he has liquidated 100% of his US asset positions to bet on the "Rest of the World". He breaks down the looming financing headwinds created by massive AI capital expenditures and political promises, explaining how this borrowing spree creates a near-term drag on US equity and corporate bond prices. Constan argues that the era of US exceptionalism is fading, making Japanese and European assets far more attractive for risk premia a...

Jan 22, 20261 hr 19 min

The Triumphs & Crises of China’s Economy | Professor Barry Naughton on China’s Debt, Deflation, and “Industrial Policy 3.0”

Barry Naughton, a renowned professor and chair of Chinese International Affairs at UC San Diego, provides a deep dive into the current crises and triumphs of the Chinese economy. In this interview, Naughton analyzes why China is grappling with its most difficult challenges in decades, from a persistent housing bust to entrenched deflationary pressures. He offers a critical look at the shift from market liberalization to aggressive state-driven industrial policy, including the massive "government...

Jan 18, 20261 hr 18 min

Banks Under Fire From Executive Action | Jack & Max on Trump's Threatened 10% Credit Card Cap and How Executive Action Is Shaping Markets in Defense, Housing, Payments, Central Banking, and More

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/?via=monetarymatters President Trump has shaken the financial markets by proposing a strict 10% interest rate cap on credit cards, a move that sent stocks like Visa and MasterCard tumbling. In this episode, Jack and Max break down whether this policy is a genuine legislative goal or a political stunt designed to win the midterms by addressing the a...

Jan 14, 20261 hr 12 min

The Market’s Biggest Whales are Making Huge Changes: Total Portfolio Revolution | Steve Novakovic of CAIA

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners Steven Novakovic, Managing Director of Educational Programs at CAIA, discusses the monumental shift from strategic asset allocation to the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) , a change recently highlighted by major moves at CalPERS. The conversation explores the ev...

Jan 13, 20261 hr 7 min

How China Could Dominate U.S. AI | Dr. Michael Power on Open Source and "The Three Assassins" of Moore's Law

Dr. Michael Power, a seasoned financial analyst, consultant, and strategist, joins Jack to discuss his recent work that predicts the Chinese A.I. industry may soon beat the U.S. at its own game. Dr. Power explains what makes the Chinese approach fundamentally different from U.S. labs like OpenAI and how it will likely affect the Chinese economy, the worldwide adoption of A.I., and the valuations of U.S. A.I. companies. As Dr. Power explains, China has the potential to not only catch up to the U....

Jan 12, 20261 hr 54 min

Why Venezuela Won’t Solve America’s Real Energy Crisis | Michael Kao on AI, Electrification, and the Natural Gas Bottleneck

In this episode of Monetary Matters, Max Wiethe sits down with Michael Kao, CIO of Akanthos Capital Management and the Kao Family Office, to unpack the real energy risks facing the U.S. economy. The conversation opens with Venezuela and the Trump administration’s push to reshape global oil supply. Michael explains why Venezuela’s vast reserves are unlikely to move the market quickly, why OPEC spare capacity still caps oil prices, and why he remains structurally bearish on oil despite constant fe...

Jan 11, 20261 hr 3 min

The Global Bull Market: Examining the Dramatic Outperformance of Global Stocks vs. the US | Jack & Max

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm In this episode, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe break down what really happened in markets in 2025 and what it means for investors heading into 2026. While U.S. equities delivered strong returns and continued to attract record foreign capital, global markets quietly outperformed, with emerging markets, Europe, Japan, and parts of Asia posting significa...

Jan 07, 202646 min

The Convexity Maven’s Biggest Macro Trades of 2026: Why Bonds, Gold, and Debasement Matter Again in 2026 | Harley Bassman

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management and widely known as the “Convexity Maven,” joins Monetary Matters to break down the hidden risks shaping today’s markets. He explains why inflation is likely to remain structurally higher, why massive fiscal deficits matter more than Fed policy, and how passive flows continue to support equities despite growing cracks underneath. The conversation dives deep into bonds, mortgage-backed securities, credit risk, gold as an alternative cu...

Jan 04, 20261 hr 2 min

Citrini’s 26 Trades for 2026 | Citrini on BS Jobs, AI Materials, Advanced Packaging, World Cup, & More

Citrini unveils his "26 Trades for 2026," shifting focus from initial AI hardware investments to companies leveraging AI for efficiency gains in bloated bureaucracies, dubbed "AI Bureaucracy Alpha." He delves into critical supply chain bottlenecks like advanced packaging and custom silicon, highlighting potential shortages in materials for AI data centers. The conversation also covers the bull case for natural gas and copper due to AI demand, and his "Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder" theory for cyclicals.

Dec 31, 20251 hr 53 min

Investing Data is Evolving: AI, The Degenerate Economy & More | Matt Ober | Social Leverage

In this episode of Other People’s Money, Matt Ober, General Partner at Social Leverage, discusses how the data economy is evolving for providers, vendors, and investors. He explains how AI is reshaping data business models, highlights emerging data sources in what he calls the “degenerate economy,” and argues that many alternative data sets once considered sources of alpha are rapidly becoming commoditized beta. Matt also shares how Social Leverage uses data to make seed stage venture investment...

Dec 30, 20251 hr

Investing in Gray | Pictet’s Maria Vassalou on Aging Demographics and Technological Innovations

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Jack welcomes Maria Vassalou, head of the Pictet Research Institute, to discuss global demographic decline and how technological revolution is imperative to prevent economic stagnation. They talk about why aging populations in countries like China, Japan, and Italy pose a fundamental threat to traditional economic growth as dependency ratios are projected to exceed 50%. Maria argues that while these trends seem ...

Dec 29, 20251 hr 22 min

China and the Reordering of World Trade | Former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Jay Shambaugh, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, joins Jack to discuss U.S. economic relations, China, and more. He draws on his years of expertise to deliver important insights into how America has realigned itself in the world economic order in the second Trump administration. Recorded on December 17th, 2025. Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Jay Shamb...

Dec 24, 20251 hr 22 min

How India’s Macro Tailwinds Are Fueling Its Aerospace & Defense Sectors | Andrei Stetsenko

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm Read about Indian Aerospace & Defense and sign up for Dispatches From India: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/dispatches/major-sector-inflection-india-defense-and-aerospace Andrei Stetsenko, partner and portfolio manager at Gymkhana Partners, discusses the explosive growth of India's economy, its strategic shift toward global defense and aerospac...

Dec 21, 20251 hr 20 min

From Bad to Less Bad: A Quantitative Approach to Turnarounds | Bloomberg Indices’ Steve Hou on “Reformers Index,” Baumol Disease, and Structural Inflation

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack sits down with Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg, to discuss the structural forces reshaping the global economy. Hou argues that we have entered a "structurally, modestly more inflationary regime" driven by five key forces: Decarbonization, Demographic aging, Deglobalization, Debt/Fiscal Dominance, and a secular rise in global Defense spending. The conversa...

Dec 20, 20251 hr 7 min

Allocators Want What They Want | Andrew Beer on Pod Shops, “Volatility Laundering,” and Building Liquid Alts That Don’t Suck

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners Why do institutional investors continue to flock to hedge funds when the average fund underperforms the S&P 500? In this deep-dive interview, Andrew Beer, founder and managing member of DBI, joins Jack Farley to pull back the curtain on the "broad insanity"...

Dec 18, 202557 min

How This Value Investor Beat the Market and Grew His Hedge Fund | Yaron Naymark | 1 Main Capital

This episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm Over the last 8 years, Yaron Naymark, founder and managing partner of 1 Main Capital, has patiently grown his concentrated long-biased hedge fund by outperforming major equity benchmarks like the S&P 500. Any manager who has been in his shoes though will tell you that outperforming the market isn’t enough to attract the institutional capital necessary to seriousl...

Dec 17, 202559 min

The AI Data Center Short | Jim Chanos on Oracle, Data Centers Landlords, and GPU Merchants

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe In this interview, Chanos breaks down why hosting GPUs is a commodity business with low returns and why the depreciation of AI chips (like Nvidia’s) creates a massive financial risk for companies like CoreWeave and Oracle. He also discusses the dangers of private credit, the accounting tricks at Live Nation, and why the "unprofitable" nature of today’s AI customers makes this cycle riskier than the Dotcom era. R...

Dec 15, 20251 hr 7 min

“Mother All Crises” | Luke Gromen on America’s Choice Between AI Dominance and Real Value of Treasury Market

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Luke Gromen of Forrest For The Trees argues that the US is facing the "Mother of All Crises": a forced choice between losing the AI race to China or destroying the US Treasury market. In this deep dive, we cover why the electrical grid is the ultimate bottleneck, why Bitcoin is flashing a warning signal for 2026, and the mathematical path to $15,000 gold. Recorded December 1, 2025. Follow Teucrium on Twitter htt...

Dec 10, 20251 hr 34 min

Beating Bitcoin at Scale with Directional Crypto Strategies | Sam Gaer of Monarq Asset Management

This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXMax Sam Gaer, CIO of Directional Strategies at Monarq Asset Management, joins Other People’s Money to discuss how he uses quantitative directional strategies to trade crypto assets and produce an institutional quality return stream that has outperformed bitcoin at scale. He explains how his experience as a market maker, executive, and self-taught electronic exchange te...

Dec 09, 20251 hr 10 min

Why Metals Are Soaring While Oil Stalls | CME Chief Economist Erik Norland on Precious Metals, Oil, Copper, and More

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Erik Norland, Chief Economist at the CME Group, joins Jack Farley to discuss the wild volatility in commodity markets. With Silver up over 80% in the past year, Erik breaks down the technological shift from photography to solar panels that is driving demand. They discuss the global fiscal situation, where major economies from the US to Brazil are running deficits between 6% and 8% of GDP , creating a bid for gol...

Dec 08, 202559 min

China’s Involution Trap | Michael Pettis on China's Excess Savings, Industrial Overcapacity, and Exporting of Deflation

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: www.vaneck.com/REMXJack In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack sits down with Michael Pettis, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, to deconstruct the massive economic imbalances between China and the rest of the world. For decades, the global economy has relied on a specific mechanism: China suppresses domestic consumption to subsidize manufacturing, and the US runs massive deficits to absorb that excess supply. Pettis argue...

Nov 30, 20251 hr 18 min

The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market

Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% of Prometheus Macro Substack here: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/subscribe?coupon=a60c1c9f Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a trusted "quant's quant" for sophisticated hedge funds, joins Jack Farley to explain why his models are signaling a meaningful shift down in risk. While previously striking a bullish tone, Aahan reveals why his institutional strategies have moved from "max bullish" to neutral on equities and commodities. Aahan breaks do...

Nov 29, 20251 hr 28 min

Breaking Down Michael Burry’s Big Nvidia Short Thesis and Open AI’s Massive Loss Projections | Jack & Max

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal AI. Save 30% off any paid tier at for Black Friday: http://fiscal.ai/mm Jack Farley & Max Wiethe breakdown Michael Burry’s big Nvidia short thesis and the recent projections from HSBC that Open AI will lose nearly half a trillion dollars between now and 2030. They also discuss the recent repricing of Fed rate cuts in December and debate which companies are the biggest losers if AI turns out to be a bubble. Follow Jack Farley on Twitte...

Nov 28, 202534 min

As Good As It Gets? | Meb Faber on U.S. Stock Valuations, Trend Following, and Endowment Allocations To Private Markets

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack welcomes Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Funds, to discuss the extreme valuations in the US stock market and where investors can still find value. Meb breaks down historical market cycles, comparing the current AI boom to...

Nov 27, 20251 hr 12 min

Venture Capital’s Collision with Public Markets, the Dry Powder Bubble, and VC Metrics that Lie | James Wang of Creative Ventures

This Other People’s Money episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners James Wang, General Partner at Creative Ventures and author of “What You Need to Know About AI” joins Other People’s Money to discuss the most pressing issues facing venture capital right now including: VC’s collision with public markets, t...

Nov 25, 20251 hr 16 min

Demystifying First Brands Group’s $ 12 Billion Bankruptcy | Robert Smith of the Financial Times

Robert Smith, Corporate Finance Editor at the FT, joins Jack to discuss the recent $12 billion bankruptcy of First Brands Group that has shocked the financial world. He explains the history of First Brands, its collapse, and the company’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings. Robert also discusses the larger world of private credit and if First Brands is the first of many ‘credit cockroaches.’ The bankruptcy is of particular interest given the fact that it could be a signal of further problems on the ...

Nov 24, 20251 hr 2 min

The Fed Won’t Pop AI: It Will Save Housing | Blue Door’s Dan Krausz On The Three Neutral Rates, The Liquidity Waterfall, and Why Profits Rising While Employment Falters Is Not Bearish For The Stock Market

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm Dan Krausz of Blue Door Asset Management joins Monetary Matters to argue that the global economy is currently driven by two dominant macro factors: aggressive fiscal policy and Artificial Intelligence. He breaks down the concept of a "three-speed economy," explaining how 6% fiscal deficits create a "liquidity waterfall" that funds the government firs...

Nov 23, 20251 hr 22 min

Is The AI Bubble Popping? | Jack and Max on Data Center Debt, Fragile Markets, and Insurance Companies

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm As investors’ outlook on AI capital expenditure sours, Jack and Max explore the rising debt issuance to fund artificial intelligence development, and the faltering share prices of companies with exposure to the “AI factor”: the hyperscalers (particularly Oracle), the chip companies, and the neoclouds such as Coreweave and Nebius. Jack then looks at t...

Nov 21, 202541 min
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