I'm John Cipher and I'm Jerry O'Shea. I was a CIA officer stationed around the world in high threat posts in Europe, Russia, and in Asia.
And I served in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and in war zones. We sometimes created conspiracies to deceive our adversaries.
Now we're going to use our expertise to deconstruct conspiracy theories large and small.
Could they be true? Or are we being manipulated?
This is mission implausible. So here in Washington, Jerry, you get to avoid it because you're hiding out there in Hawaii. But here in Washington it is still every day there's new information about Trump nominees.
Only somebody would write an our editorial in the New York Times.
Well I did. I went on a PBS news hour to talk about this the other day, and today an article just came out in the New York Times called running Spies is Not a Game for Amateurs that I wrote along with former CIA and NSA Director General Michael Hayden, who we both respect as a great long time intelligence professional and was it a really excellent director at this CIA. So this happens to be a lot about what we're going to talk about today, it's really Jermane Now I got to reread it.
I've wanted to talk to you about this for a while. Telsea Gabbard being nominated to be the Director of National Intelligence, it freaking a lot of people out, even a lot of Republicans out. Can we start with it?
So?
Was there a Director of National Intelligence but when you were still in CIA or did that come after it happened?
If you remember in two thousand and four, after the nine to eleven when President Bush was running again and there was a lot of back and forth about how they were going to respond from nine to eleven, and a new law came in to create the Director of National Intelligence, and it was meant to be a way of making sure that the intelligence community works better together
and all those other kind of things. And so it's a fairly new, I guess maybe twenty years old now, organization which is meant to deal with the budgets and the bigger picture issues about the intelligence community.
Yeah. She would oversee eighteen intelligence agencies, different ones that the US has, and she has a budget of about seventy billion dollars and she serves as the principal advisor to the President on intelligence matters.
It includes the intelligence community parts of the military. Now it's a little different because she doesn't control them, because
they're controlled by the Secretary of Defense. So the NSA is essentially a part of the Defense Department, as are the intelligence services in the Marines and Army and Navy and such, and so the DNI has that role of working over all of those different eighteen organizations, some of them directly under the DNI and some of them jointly with the military, and also the FBI, which is part of the Justice Department as well.
And scarily, she, at least in theory d or the DNI sets like folk guy, what it is we're going to be focused on. And she can do that through budgets too, by controlling budgets, So you increase the counter
terrorism budget, so you go after counter terrorism. But if you've got a conspiracy theorist, anyone who says I want to spend ten billion dollars dollars saying did the US support secret bio labs creating pathogens in ukrain which we didn't complete, lie, you could still spend ten billion dollars searching for a snipe that doesn't exist. Right, that's where the danger comes in. And so you still put the focus on something that either isn't true or doesn't exist or.
Well, in theory that should be done in coordination with air Security advisor and in a state department and all these other types of things. But yes, person has quite a
bit of influence. And what's interesting is I think a lot of these Trump folks that are coming in, they have such misperceptions about the agencies they're meant to run, whether it's the FBI or the DNI, the CIA, And I think they're going to come in like toilsa geber' is gonna come in and thinking she's going to be able to find some deep state thing or some fascinating stuff, so she's gonna be able to immediately deal with it.
And like the first day, she's going to be sitting in like a bunch of incredibly boring meetings going over the Tunisian plan for the next ten years and what did the analysts say about the economy and signing off on a variety of products and meetings and things. That's it's a coordination job. It's they don't run the secret operations that you think of with the CIA, with the NSA or the kind of.
Yeah, I spent some time with the National Economic Council Chair at the White House. And this is overstating it that it's a glorified secretary or administrative assistant, because it is.
The person's views do matter, But it really is there's Treasury, there's the FED, there's the They do the work, and this is the person who convenes those bodies who know they do have a lot of access these like the D and I, the NSC, the National Economic Council Chair, and in a presidency like the one we're about to have where the last person in the room has outsized influence. From all reports, it's not nothing, but yeah, it's a lot of coordinating. So I want to go through a
couple different things. So one thing is we did this when we had episodes on President elect Trump. Still hard to say those words and Russia, where I'd say, what we concluded is we're not in a position to say he is an active agent of Russian intelligence. In fact, we're skeptical that's the case. But at the same time, if you look at it through a national security lens, if he was applying for any job other than the job he happened to get, he would not get a
national security clearance. That we talked about how in a prosecutorial way, if you want to arrest someone and put them in jail, you need beyond a reasonable doubt. But counterintelligence, it's more like, does this person give us the act? So, John, you tell me, because you spent time in Russia. This is a person who has pretty openly said she supports that.
Yeah. So I just wrote an opinion piece for the New York Times along with former CIA in NSA and DNI Director General Michael Hayden. So Telsea Geerber is interesting because she really embraces conspiracy theories and she champions Russian disinformation. And it's not just me. The former Nation Security Advisor for President Trump, H. R. McMaster said it specifically that she parrots Putin's talking points and so you could talk her job. She has no significant experience directing or managing
much of anything. And I'll let Jerry talk about her background in Hawaii. But in terms of the stuff that she's done, she's almost like anti national security. She's become this avatar for that. She's antagonized the intelligence community in person by writing a bill to protect Russian citizen Edward Snowden, who ill legally stole as much as two million classified
defense and intelligence documents. She's went to Syria and met with Syrian Butcher Assad and completely tried to support the fact that the Russians weren't bombing children and hospitals and things. And so she's very not only is she not qualified, she seems to have gone further to be almost working against our general national security issues.
If she were to get this job, she would oversee these eighteen US intelligence agencies who all have different ways of acquiring intelligences, intelligence and analyzing it. And for the Assad regime back in twenty seventeen, it and it's Russian ill is. We're dropping poison gas on civilian populations ile EPO. And despite the fact that all eighteen agreed that this was going on, she said, I don't believe it. So
what happens when you gather intelligence, you analyze it. You're listening to the pilots drop it, You're listening to people on the ground screaming. You've smuggled out materials that show that siren gas or poison gas was used, And she says, I just don't believe it, Well, how do you deal with that as an intelligence organization? And I think the answer to that is we don't friggin know because it's
never happened before. Right, This is where you get. There's intelligence and facts and when you can analyze the different and it can make you can make mistakes. But then there's just faith, and you can accept anything on faith. If you just say I don't believe it, that could
be enough. So I live in Awahu and I know of through the locals and through the local scuttle but and people here, if you come to Hawaii and talk to the locals here and Kaylu on the windward side, I'll tell you that we know where Colsey Gabord comes from. It's something called the Science of Identity Foundation, and it's like Harry Krishna. They were so crazy that that Harry Krishna's kicked them out. And they have this gurus named Chris Butler, although he goes with this long Guru something
or other name now. And the sect that she is affiliated with is anti gay, stream, anti Muslim, which sort of shows why she's willing to reach out to almost anybody who's killing Muslims and Stream obedience. You know, there's really concern that is she loyal to Chris Butler and her Hindu Hari Krishna offshoot sect, or is she is she loyal to the Constitution? And it's unfortunately maybe not a rhetorical question.
Famously, when she was in Syria after she saw Asad, she was taken by her minders to go see where the Russians and the Syrians had bombed civilians and a famous as she was talking to a bunch of children, and these children whose families and many of their parents have been killed and the bombing, were explaining what they'd been through. And she looked at them and said, I don't know if I believe you. How can you prove
that this wasn't Isis that did this? And her minder just almost wanted to explode to say, Isis doesn't have airplanes, right, they don't have an air force. It's in the Russia.
And when Russian television haul's her Russia's girlfriend, our adversary says that she's their Gael freaking take them at their word. That that makes me more than Leary.
Culture really matters in our world. You've heard us say that before that culture is defined by mission, and culture is really important in an organization. And for example, when we describe the culture that's different between the CIA and the FBI, we say that the FBA are cops and we're robbers, and so we work together, but it's often difficult because we have a very different way of looking
at the world. But when she's coming in and some of the other people in the Trump administrations and saying they won't take background checks, they won't let the FBI or others do investigations in background checks, oh my goodness, that's failing leadership one on one, because your entire population of people who work for you have intrusive background checks, and they have polygraphs, and they have to report all your bank money and all the things you own, and
you have to do this every year. You have to report on every foreigner you meet if you happen to be dating for and you have to report all those days. And she's going to come in and say, I don't need a background check, And that's just crazy.
And that's true of any culture, right anyone can understand when everyone has to take a pay cut and you find out the CEO got a big stock option that that doesn't go over very well.
So there's a law called the Pierce Blackledge Doctrine, and it prohibits the US government from punishing a defendant for exercising their legal rights right so in your First Amendment right to assemble or to express an opinion. And close to Tulca Gambert is also I think we need to discuss the elephant in the room, Cash Mattel, as well, because FBI also in a lot of ways more dangerous because internally it's law enforcement and its intelligence collect and
Cash Prattel famously has said that he is. He has a list and he's published in his book of people he's coming for now back to CIA. Among that is former CIA director right, Gina Hasbell, and current CIA director.
Ray FBI director right.
And so this is without any evidence or anything. He's telegraphing vindictive prosecutions, which is illegal in the United States, saying he's coming after them, and it doesn't matter if there's evidence or not. He says, we'll do it civilly,
we'll do it criminally. And I think for most Americans, CIA and the intelligence community is important, but almost more important is rule of law and what they're going to do about what Trump calls these enemies within and how our bureau brothers are going to respond to demands that they for the first time when American history, or certainly since the nineteen fifties sixties, that the FBI is going to go after select political and I think that's if.
A bigger question is how law enforcement and intelligence will work together to either not do that or are there enough Quizzlings out there who will come forward and say, yeah, I'll do it.
These are very powerful organizations and if they're turned against the American public, it really can be very dangerous.
The other thing that's been on my mind, this is not the funniest episode we've ever done. You talked in an earlier episode about how much of the intelligence that is essential to our national security comes from allied powers and whether without a background check. I think, just based on her own utterances, I don't think I would risk my life to share information or even risk a sources life or whatever, knowing that Tulsa Gabbert might know who gave it to them and who gave it to CIA.
So can you talk about that, like the chilling effect on collaboration with other nations, with other spy services.
Yeah, Foreign partners are going to hesitate to share their most precious secrets with us, and not just because they think that the leader Tulsea Gabbert or even the president might not be trustworthy. That's certainly a real problem. But if these guys get their way, they talk about destroying these organizations, about putting their own people in these positions. They're talking about taking all the senior people in the FBI and CIA and make them take loyalty tests or
pushing them out. Foreign partners are not going to work with people who aren't professionals but are the tool of one political party or another. In fact, the CIA has benefited for years and recruited many a spy who was disgusted by the corruption and cronyism in their own societies. So essentially, if we're creating this problem for ourselves, we're
hurting ourselves in two ways. Our partners aren't going to share with us, and people might actually be able to recruit American spies to steal things from inside our places.
And when you're recruiting an agent, you're making a very long term commitment. Right You're not saying, hey, trust me, I will do everything in my power for the next three and a half years to keep you safe. And then all bets are off right, Like there's an I assume implied. I don't know how explicit you have to be saying it doesn't matter the president is, doesn't matter who controls Congress.
We've got you, I'll keep you alive. Period.
Yeah.
There's no trauma after that. Yeah.
Yeah. And so recruiting and running spies inside the halls of places in Moscow or Beijing or Tehran, it's not an amateur's game. And it takes years and years. And that's another thing about the culture. The CIA and the intelligenmuti is hierarchical, like the defense department. So you're a privator, you're a colonel, you're a general, and those things matter, and it takes years to get from one to the next.
When somebody comes in who's never done any of those things in that most senior position ahead was a very low level position, all of a sudden, now they're in charge of all of these people who put in time, experience, often in hard places, and now this person is the boss just because they have political connections. That creates another sort of cultural friction that's going to be it's going to be very difficult on allies.
Famously, in twenty sixteen, George Papadopolos got drunk in London with the I Commission, the Ambassador, the Australian Ambassador to Great Britain. George Papadopolis was on Trump's national security team when he was running for president as an advisor, and he got drunk and he told him in great detail that he knows, through a Russian connection because he's talking to Russian intelligence during an intermediary, that the Russians have
got the goods on the Democratic National Committee. They stolen the emails and these are the emails that they stole that both the GRU and the SBR fancy Bear and cozy. So the Australians came forward to the FBI and said, hey, not for nothing, but we got this guy saying that the Russians have stolen Democratic National Committee email and the FBI goes, oh my god, because they knew they had, So how did George Poppadopolis know this? This then opens
up whole Russia Russia Russia quote unquote hoax. This is what kicked it off. And then Papadopolis does the right thing. He lies to the FBI leads his Facebook accounts that are incriminating, and he destroys his cell phone so that the FBI can't check on what he was saying. And so this and not the Steel dossier is what kicked off the whole What is the relationship between Russian intelligence
and Trump World through Papadopoulos. I think this time around, the Australians would be sold, just keep your house shut, Let the Russians do whatever they want to The Americans, I think what's going to save us, if anything, and what I tell myself is their incompetence. If they are so incompetent and so corrupt and so unable to carry through cash, Hotel Tulsi, Gabbert Hags, all these guys they
get confirmed. I think what's only going to save us is bureaucratic sloth and their inability to actually do the shit that they say they do.
Also, I wonder populists traditionally often make up enemies to attack, institutions, to attack to get power, right, But now they're in power. These are their institutions, right, So now destroying the institutions that they rely on doesn't make as much sense now. In the past, obviously they were mad about the Russia investigations in Hunter Biden's laptop and all those kind of things, and that's because they were running for election and they
wanted to use those as handy attacks against their political rivals. Well, now those things don't matter anymore. They're not running for election. They're in power. They should want these institutions to work effectively for them, So they should put their loyal people in charge. So that does it feels comfortable he's got people in charge, but they shouldn't look to destroy things further, Like Bannon has said, we're going to destroy the administrative state.
Now that may not be the truth. They may actually believe these things. They may believe that there's terrible people working against the president there and they need to be destroyed and all these other kind of things. And if that's true, that really is dangerous. But perhaps they'll come around and realize, hey, like why are we destroying this
thing that we rely on. There's going to be crisis, there's going to be international things that conceivably the administrations are going to want strong military and a strong counterintelligence service and a strong intelligence service.
So I wanted to end on a funny note, and that John, you really found the funniest possible note that the entire Trump administration will come in on January twentieth, and by January twenty third, they'll be like, you know what, maybe we should just be super competent professionals who run this thing.
Really well, let's keep the institution put weaponize them.
All right, we're going to get right back into that, but first let's hear this, and we're back with Mission implausible.
So may you live in interesting times? Is that a Yiddish curse? Is that a Chinese curse? Who's responsible for that?
I have heard Chinese, I've never heard it in the Yiddish context. And there's a lot of conspiracy theories about US Jews. One thing I can say is if there's a Yiddish saying, I've heard it. So do you think President Biden should just pardon the enemy's list? And I want to make clear you to our enemies, you're on the enemy's list.
So this is a.
Very hard self you and John, Yes, you know I wouldn't take it because my understanding is the pardon is you have to admit your guilt before you get the and we haven't done anything wrong.
You haven't done this specific thing wrong.
Yeah, that's true. That's true.
I'm sure you've done plenty wrong. I feel fairly confident about that, But I don't know.
And the issue of pardons, I don't have a great take on that, Like that seems to me. When we are an intelligence we were focused on collecting the best intelligence we could for our policymakers, but we didn't get into policy ourselves. We didn't try to advise things that should be having. This seems to be very partisan political things. And there's a whole Justice Department, FBI checks stuff behind the whole pardon thing, and I just don't know enough
to say yes, no, should they. We've gotten into this game where both sides are like thinking the other sides up to illegal stuff, and they're going to protect their side, and it just seems skeazy and I just as soon stay away from it.
No one's above the law, and I think giving pardons, especially to relatives, it simply shows that there's one set of justice for them and another set of justice for the restless. So when President Trump, then President Trump hardened Jared Kushner's father who was charged with sixteen tax evasion charges, and then he was also charged and found guilty and pled guilty to making a sex tape about his own
brother in law. He lured his own brother in law into a tryst with a prostitute, paid her twenty five thousand dollars, filmed it, and tried to blackmail his brother in law not to testify against him, and pled guilty to that. Trump pardoned him and has just named him ambassador to France. I think that's wrong, and I think it's also I'm sorry, Hunter Barden. I think it's wrong that he gets a pardon. Oh, and then he gave the film to the guy's.
Wife, his mother, his sister. That's right, but he got pardoned for that. And I don't see that as any versus Hunter Biden. But I don't think either of them should have been pardoned.
Agreed. I think it's you can understand as a dad, but we're not president.
Yeah.
I couldn't agree. More so if Tulsea Gabbard becomes d and I, would you expect a lot of CIA senior brass officers to quit? And for that matter, would you expect agents to say, we get work with you anymore? We're too afraid.
In terms of people leaving. I saw that just recently, the Attorney General gave a talk to the Justice Farm people encouraging them to stay. The country needs experience, professionals and a lot of these jobs. Now, like I mentioned before, like if they truly are going to try to destroy these organizations and put just rank partisan people with no experience into these kinds of jobs, lots of people are
going to leave. But it remains to be seen. Some of these things that people say a cash hotel, I'm going to go in and I'm going to first day close the FBI and send everybody else. That's just those are not realistic things. And oftentimes in the past politicians have said things that came in and once they realize what they have and that these people are professionals and they work for them, things change. So I think there be people who are at retirement age that we're planning
to stay. A number of them will try to leave and others will try to stay. But I do think if the incompetence and the real sort of disdain for the institutions they run continues, you're going to see not as much people leaving, but a lot of more leaking. It's gonna be very interesting to be reading the newspaper over the next couple of years.
I think people who followed through on threats like that, I'm going to defund the police, right. This is the FBI in this case, and the DOJ. It's people like pole pot In, like maw Right. They just shut down governments. It didn't work out well for them. So I don't think cash Hotel is actually going to follow through on this, but you can still cause a lot of destruction. I think a lot of people just go into internal exile
and just try to hang out for four years. I'm just really proud that I got Smoot Hawley, Senator reads smooth into a show, right. I've been wanting to do that forever.
Mission Implausible produced by Adam Davidson, Jerry O'shay, John Cipher, and Jonathan Stern. The associate producer is Rachel Harner. Mission Implausible is a production of Honorable Mention and Abominable pictures for iHeart Podcasts.