Episode 703: Midrats Pre-Halloween Spooktacular! - podcast episode cover

Episode 703: Midrats Pre-Halloween Spooktacular!

Oct 21, 20241 hr 1 min
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Episode description

ShowlinksSummary

In this episode of Midrats, Sal and Mark discuss the evolving geopolitical landscape, focusing on China's strategic maneuvers around Taiwan and the implications for US military preparedness. They explore the potential for conflict, the challenges facing the US Navy, and the need for a reevaluation of military strategy and acquisition processes. The conversation highlights the complexities of international relations and the shifting balance of power in the region. In this conversation, Mark and Sal delve into the complexities of naval strategy, fleet composition, and the lessons learned from historical engagements like Taffy 3. They discuss the limitations of wargaming, the need for modernization in naval warfare, and the challenges of military production in times of peace. The dialogue also touches on the shifting global power dynamics and the implications for military strategy, particularly in relation to Israel and the broader international community.

Takeaways
  • The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea highlights the complexities of modern warfare.
  • China's maneuvers around Taiwan reflect a strategic approach to territorial claims.
  • The use of non-military assets by China complicates international responses.
  • The US military faces significant challenges in terms of preparedness and resources.
  • China's strategy may involve a slow strangulation of Taiwan's economy.
  • International recognition of Taiwan's sovereignty is dwindling.
  • The US's military pivot to the Pacific has not been adequately supported by resources.
  • Naval strategy must adapt to the realities of modern warfare in narrow seas.
  • The acquisition process for military assets is slow and risk-averse.
  • There is a pressing need for change in military development and strategy. The importance of having a diverse fleet for various combat scenarios.
  • Historical engagements like Taffy 3 provide valuable lessons for modern naval strategy.
  • Wargaming often fails to capture the unpredictability of real-world engagements.
  • Smaller, well-led units can outperform larger forces under the right conditions.
  • The U.S. Navy needs to modernize its approach to warfare and fleet composition.
  • Production capabilities must align with wartime needs to ensure readiness.
  • Understanding global power dynamics is crucial for effective military strategy.
  • The international community's perception of military actions can impact alliances.
  • Decisive action is necessary when dealing with irrational adversaries.
  • Military strategy must evolve to address contemporary threats effectively.
Sound Bites
  • "Halloween's spooktacular, but all our shows are spooktacular."
  • "We need to think about smaller, highly armed boats."
  • "Wargames are limited by assumptions and math."
  • "Taffy 3 turned around a massive Japanese force."
Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Context Setting
01:55: China's Strategic Maneuvers Around Taiwan
09:55: The Implications of China's Actions
18:13: US Military Preparedness and Response
26:05: Challenges in Naval Strategy and Acquisition
32:07: Future of Military Development and Change Management
33:47: Navigating Naval Strategy and Fleet Composition
39:49: Lessons from History: The Taffy 3 Engagement
45:40: The Need for Modernization in Naval Warfare
52:19: Production Challenges in Military Readiness
56:05: Understanding Global Power Dynamics and Military Strategy

Transcript

Intro / Opening

Speaker 1

And walk on board everybody, and thank you for joining us for another edition of mid Rats. And as we are live today, I'd like to roll out my usual alter call. If you are with us live, go ahead and go head on over to the chat room. This is a free for all format. That means that Mark and I will will take all questions, well most questions in comments you may have during the course of the show, because we have our list of things that we want

to talk with you about. But if you have better ideas, we already got Paul in there standing throw the cordette checking IDs and hey, besides that, we're ready to go, and we're not having a show next week, so some of the pre show stuff about the spooptacular, but we cannot go. Let the high holidays go have recognition. You know Mark I's speaking about you know what? The call today is free for all. And when I thought out because my neighbor has the eight hundred foot tall skeleton

up in his yard. Now, all's Halloween spooptacular. But sometimes I think most all of our shows are kind of spooctacular, So I guess it was just the normal show.

Speaker 2

Yeah, the specter of evil looms large in our podcast. Well, well, that's.

Speaker 1

Why we always have things to talk about. And one thing that I brought up and I got a good the listeners would have heard a hearty laugh is yesterday was a rather sarcastic and sardonic anniversary. It's the one year anniversary of our ongoing conflict slash guarding the Prosperity Prosperity Garden where the on nineteen October twenty twenty three, USS Carney got the first birds away defending whatever needs defending,

mostly themselves and others in the Red Sea. So that's another conflict we can say that has been going on for a while. It hasn't ended. That's the war we've had for the last year. And what Mark and I

China's Strategic Maneuvers Around Taiwan

were talking about, I was like, well, let's roll that in to talking about the war that we might have in the next year. And if you haven't been paying attention to the last week with what's officially called by the People's Republic of China is Joint Sword twenty twenty four is they have as you would expect them to do, and as you would do too if you were in their shoes. They've turned the knob up, put the ratchet a couple of spots.

Speaker 3

It is doing some.

Speaker 1

Really interesting positioning and maneuvers around Taiwan.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's it's it's fascinating to see how they've done this. They've been using coast guard ships, They've been using they haven't really put their heavy hitting naval ships out there. But their concept is if it's a blockade, they didn't call a blockade, they're they're they're looking at it, and this is this is the genius of their operation. And this is what we kind of discussed before we got

started the show. But I'm looking at that and I'm going, Okay, if if I'm China and I don't want to send thousands of troops across the Strait of Taiwan, how do I make it so it's really difficult for anybody to do anything about what I'm doing. And I look at them, I go, well, there it is. You set up these coastguard things, you enforce. You declare that since Taiwan is really your territory and it's surrounding seas, are it are

your seas? You declare that you're going to hould customs inspections, You're going to prevent bad guys from entering your waters Latti doa di DA and then you bring in your non military assets. Theoretically non military assets, your bear time militia, your fishing fleet, and if nothing else, you just get in the way of everybody that's trying to get in there. And the best case is you stop shipping into Taiwan and in that way you effectuate a blockade without necessarily

to clary a blockade. And so my question to you was earlier and I'll ask it again now you're you're you're the strategy kind of guy. How does this look to you? Is it has a strategy given the options they have.

Speaker 1

And again I'll I'll caveat to apply about what I know what I don't know, but I can imply what I've seen. But yeah, it has a as an old operational planner. It just looks to me just playing smart because we think we know what well. He's She has said it out loud that he wants his military to be ready and they want to regain sovereign control over what they consider one of their provinces, the same that we would look at Maine, Hawaii, Florida, Washington State, that's

one of their provinces. They just haven't regained control over it. And with that higher direction of guidance, I could see their planning staff coming up with, you know, three or

four different courses of action. They could take a different different le everything from a the People's Republic China do their version of D Day, full scale military assault straight out of coss Fits, you know, do whatever you want to do to describe what is kind of interesting to look at if you or if you're writing action novels, what that would look like, all the way to something that would be really really low key, which is pretty much what they've been doing the last few decades, just

with a little more emphasis, kind of like what we saw with twenty twenty four and what they're doing in the South China. See, we're just going to slowly turn up the heat bit by bit, but we really don't want to get in a shooting war with anybody. We had enough with Vietnam and seventy nine. We would rather just intimidate and bribe and corrupt our way to power. But in between those two steps is is kind of

what you've outlined here. One thing that China has been very good at is they have continually and regularly using various levers of influence and power they've been. The number of nations out there that actually recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, and the amount of nations that can actually do anything about it is pretty much down to one us. By narrowing that, they've created the conditions where they can all of a sudden say that we're doing with their Coastguard,

their maritime militia. They have enough units to do it without putting any of their warships to see. They can say, we are just going to be exerting control over our territorial waters, and we have customs requirements and inspections requirements, and we're just going to start implementing.

Speaker 3

Them in the waters.

Speaker 1

And if Taiwan resists, then they have a an internal security i e. Of policing problem, and they can very well go in front of the cameras and can just slow down any type of international reaction by making very objectively legitimate arguments. This is our province. Nobody recognizes this as an independent nation anymore than they recognize Hawaii, Chechnya

are whales as independent nations. And for too long we've tried to do this the easy way, But this is our province or we're going to take it back, and they'll this course of action that doesn't involve large landing fleets, doesn't belong taking car ferries and fulling them up with tanks and armored personnel carriers. It's basically strangling slowly Taiwan's

ability to sustain itself. And then the Taiwanese people will have to come to a decision point on what they want to do, and a lot of that will determine upon what messages and support they're getting from the US over on the eastern side. And the argument's going to be and the United States has not helped itself, especially with what we did in two thousand and three in Iraq, with our reputation internationally about interfering in the internal affairs

of other nations, and China positions itself very well. If in the course of trying to exert what they believe is sovereign power over their territory and addressing police issues with violent insurrectionists on their territory, why is the US seventh Fleet coming west of Wake Island to interfere in our internal affairs? If they couch it well, they can be clumsy on the diplomatic side of the House, but I think she's been very direct about what he wants

to accomplish. And if they're setting the conditions to do what you outlined earlier, I tip my hat to that is a really solid course of action. If you want to end this decade long story in a relatively short length of time without losing much face, without potentially going to war, or more importantly, not having to bomb your way through that island at all of its valuable economic

infrastructure that is in place there. If your National Command authority says that we need to do this by twenty twenty seven, which I believe he said in one context, now, how do you prepare that over the course of the next two to three years. If this is roughly the course of action that they've chosen to take, I don't think, regardless of what happens on the US side of the equation of political wise, how the Chinese could not succeed

The Implications of China's Actions

if they're willing to take the short term hit of doing what they need to do with with Taiwan. If that's the path they're taking again, I'll tip my hat to them. That's pretty darn smart. And if you really back up and look at the big pixels. That's kind of in the finest traditions of China for the last few thousand years, when they're at their prime. This is how they went.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and I think one of the other things that we did to look at I mean, what does the outside world do? What would the US do here?

Speaker 3

Here?

Speaker 2

The I mean, this is a classic law fair kind of situation. You know, we're doing something legal, it's our territory. We're recognized internationally by many countries, and you know, if you attack any of our ships, then that's that's that's you know, that's war, that's that's the cause of bell eye for them. They say, Okay, you know we were we were doing this peacefully and and and well within

our international and national rights. And we've you know, we've long let it be known that we view Taiwan as our territory, and you know, it just I think it creates quite the conundrum for anybody who's trying to figure out how to respond to it, especially if they haven't been if they haven't when they weren't awakened by this going on in the last few weeks. Because if I'm sitting somewhere promised to be any kind of great strategic genius.

But I'm sitting in an office somewhere somebody walks in and goes, you know, what are they doing over there? I think I'd be going, oh my gosh, what what is our plan A and Plan B and Plan C for responding to this? Because there are a lot of options that don't look real good. Yeah.

Speaker 1

In the chat room, Paul and Camp brought up a couple of related issues. Paul said, you know what, how does this play into their moves against the Philippines And Camp was talking about India and Burma. He calls it may and Mar, but I don't call it Mayamar. I call it Burma because I'm just funny that way. Anyway, I think if they decided to do with that you and I were discussing with Taiwan, everybody else is going to back up. They're not going to want any part

of that because China is already off her feet. I'm sure that she is. Even if they try to do the soft they'll have the Coastguard and the People's Militia out front, but they'll have their military at a high readiness force and they'll through dipic diplomatic means, says, you know, well,

we'll work with our differences when we're done here. But everybody just needs to back off, and I think the international will back off because if you're the Philippines, India or Burma, regardless of what temporary issues you might have, Burma slash Maya and mar has plenty of internal issues,

external issues that everybody's going to do that. Nobody, nobody wants to go to war over a island that they don't recognize twenty milli million people that as long as they get their semiconductors, they don't care what country of

origin stamp it has on it. I think that the People's Republic of China has looked at it's timing and how it has prepared the international community space, the diplomatic space, whatever domain you want to call that, in such a way that they really wanted to have that twenty twenty seven date be valid. It's pretty smart, especially if the China Hawks in the United States have been primarily focused

on a military response. What if there is no military response to something that is a law enforcement and an internal security operation by everybody's definition. Europeans aren't going to stand up for Taiwan. Japan is not going to stand up for Taiwan. South Koreans have other issues going on right now.

Speaker 3

They don't want any bit of that.

Speaker 1

The Vietnamese as long as nobody crosses their border, they're not going to do anything either. So again it goes back to how does it look for a relatively unprepared US military to sorty west of Wait basing out of guang And with anybody who does math knows that we really can't sustain combat operations for a length the time unless we're able to access the Philippines, Japan, et cetera,

et cetera. It seems that this is not a bad time in the next twenty four months to be able to take that route, if that's the route they want to have. I think perhaps or may have been a period of time that maybe in the first decade of this century that China might thought that they might they there might be a way to unify the two countries.

But I've seen people draw the line differently. Something changed in China around two thousand and five two thousand and six it decided to be less Pandamar and more dragon that they decided that probably wasn't the path that that was going to be successful for them. So they've been working on this path on their timeline, which they can do because they don't have elections every twenty.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think the question about the about the Philippines, I don't think China cares about the Philippines other than it's proximity to Taiwan and and what they've done to the South China Sea. I mean you can talk about uh, you know, boiling the frog. They have. They've created a situation there where it's uh and we you know, we discussed this guys. I don't know the way first started talking about the what they were doing there, but you know they're going to present you know, it's a fielt

the company. We we now control the South China Sea. We control everything that would be of any interest to anybody outsee because it's all our internal water, it's our nine dash line, and Taiwan is our terrritory. Anybody who invades this stuff is violating the international law by as you just said, I mean, they're going after our internal affairs.

It's our territory. And they have the benefit especially with Taiwan where they have you don't have to have armed forced, you don't have to have your big navy ships out there, because you've got the coast, you've got all their coastal batteries, all the all the the the airfields, everything else, and the and the long distance missiles, which would be you know, that's everybody. You're looking. Well, I'm gonna send my fleet

in there. Well, you know, what are you going to do about their d S twenty one's or wherever they are? And and and you know what are you gonna do about about the defense of Guam? And is it worth? This is where the question is going to come to the leadership of the West and the US in particular, what is it worth to challenge this if if they can't if they use this plan? What what? What is it? What's the what? At what point do we say the

cost is too high to fight against this? I mean we've had this discussion with an number of guests on the show that that somewhere along the line you begin to weigh these these decisions and what what the cost is against whatever the benefit is. And you know, the way they've the way they've to me, the way they've been setting this all up, is that it's it's you know,

nobody else is concerned, but theirs. And I, you know, I'm sure I'm not the only one that's that feels that this is an interesting strategy, but I see there's really a way to hamstring any kind of response against.

Speaker 1

And it's not like we're in a condition that we can really you know, build up for the fight. And this is something I'm thinking about right and on next week. Maybe i'll write tomorrow, maybe i'll write Wednesday, maybe I don't write at all. But there, and we've mentioned it a couple of times here, there was an inflection point that we are now spending and there's a scary as you know what graph out there that it outlines this.

We're spending more on interest on our debt than we are on our national defense, and it's only going.

Speaker 2

To get worse.

Speaker 1

And the latest and I missed this on the first

US Military Preparedness and Response

read of it, but the CNO's navigation plan that she came out with, which I it's it's a fine plan. I've seen worse. This is fine.

Speaker 3

There's plenty to work with here.

Speaker 1

But the one thing that's not so much what's in it is what's not in it. It pretty much admits that while we need and we want a larger Navy. They we're not going to get because there's just there's not going to be the money to get it. And I fully appreciate those people who they say, well, we just need to find the money. We just need to get the money because is what we require. That's fine, that's your opinion. I don't think that's that's very realistic.

I think we have the reality of the budget being what it is. So if we're stuck at about two nine and a high percentage of that are platforms like lcs that are limited in their utility, and any type of fight against China, it's actually much smaller than that. For China's timing, it might be pretty good because in a way, because we've been talking big about what has it been ten years since our Pacific pivot that President Obama announced, and we've had Davidson and there's Davidson window,

and we had got Paparo out there. We're talking a pretty big military discussion. But in a way, we've we've balked for you baseball fans, we've balked on the Pacific pivot because we haven't backed it up with the resources for the fight in the Western Pacific, which is going to be a maritime and aerospace fight. We just we haven't done it out. See how we're going to do it with the present And this is not a political statement,

it's just a reality statement. It belongs to both political parties with the present leadership and philosophy underlying both towards national defense. I don't see how you're going to get any big change it will move that number. As such, if you've got a fight with what you got right now west of the International dateline.

Speaker 3

To the math.

Speaker 1

Against that scenario. We started the show with that of all the possible courses of action, and that's probably the one that has the highest degree for success for the Chinese. And I think that door is open for him. They want to step through it.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and it's you know, we've we've not only have we not actively improved our position in the in the Western Pacific, we've hurt ourselves. You know, we we close Red Hill. Yeah, I know it's polluting and all that stuff, but but now you know what was the fallback plan. We're going to have a bunch of tankers somewhere that are full of oil, you know, the the equivalent of Red Hill. Well, I don't know where that has gone, and you know, how are we going to get that

stuff across the Pacific? You know, they we already know we were when we were talking to I think Dean Chang or Tean Chang I for somebody. But we're talking about the the Chinese have recognized. Maybe it was some of the Chinese, it was Toshi Toshi Yasha Hari, you know, wis we're talking about the Chinese recognizing World War two lessons. Well, you know the US is the logistics thing is what kept them in the war. And you're going, Okay, well,

what are we going to do about it? Well, they may have noisy submarines, but we don't have enough assets to protect our valuable logistics ships from noisy even noisy submarines. So there are a bunch of issues where we've shot ourselves on the foot before things get off the off

this start. So what you know, I think there are a lot of questions about preparedness and what we've done to as you say that the pivot to the Pacific, because I I'm having trouble figure out where we've other than putting some marines into the Philippines, I'm not quite sure where we've enhanced our abilities to fight anybody out in that area.

Speaker 1

Ye. Big part of it is we again, as we've been discussing here well over a decade, is there hasn't been either the sense of urgency or the right combination of people to change the mindset, to change the processes and the procedures that we fell in love with in the post Cold War era that gave us the luxury of taking our time for these developments, while we've missed a couple of generations of both aircraft and ship and

land power development. The People's Republic of China that used to be way behind us is if you want to look at an individual quant qualitative point of view, Yeah, we're still ahead of them, but that delta continues to shrink as they go iteration by iteration by iteration. You know, do they even have the equivalent of a SM two or an SM two alpha, much less an SM three. Somebody has that answer, but you can't get that answer

out of this gift. But I think it would be dangerous to assume that their missiles are low quality, are primitive for what they need. Unlike us, they don't have hundreds of short, short range and medium range, intermediate range ballistic missiles with USA written on it facing them unless you're going to get some high Mars in there, which good luck with that. So they don't have to have

those capabilities. What they'd have to be able to deal with is American cruise missiles and American aircraft, and that's a very different challenge and one that I think is well within their qualitative delta, whatever that is here in

twenty twenty four. And there was something that I think we talked about last week by bringing up again that I think plays in to the scenario you outlined earlier in the show as well as they have in serial production, like so many pieces of a Lego two dozen what we would call medium endurance cutters under production and just one shipyard. Tom Shugart had a nice little post on

that a blow over a week ago. That's the perfect vessel if you want to make sure that you have a customs inspection on every ship coming in and out of quote your ports unquote, that that would be a tremendous capability to have, especially new construction, because then you don't have to have one third of them in intermediate maintenance if they've all been produced in the same year.

So I'll know when those will have their shakedown cruises done, but they looked and such a production that if they really are motivated, probably by twenty twenty five, those twenty four ships will be up and ready ready to run. I don't know if we had the capability to put twenty four medium endurance cutters in the water inside of one fisc year, but the people are probably China share does.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's how he is actually looking at a book that was written at nineteen ninety called Narrow Seas, Small Navies and Fat Merchantmen by Charles Coberger, who's a tired postcard captain. He like a lot of coasts, you know, he's interested in small boats and stuff. But he does

have some interesting points here. He says ignorance and disinterest in the part of the US naval authorities and violence in the narrow seas is with several striking exceptions for verbial our continued unpreparedness for such warfighting results each time such emergency arises, in long delays before we're able to react effectively, and most recently and somewhat embarrassing call for help to reluctant allies. This will no longer do you know,

and he's pointing out the same thing. Later on in his book, he points out that we keep thinking of the way we design our fleet that we're talking about Mahanian, you know, we make fun of the Japanese. We're thinking we're the big battles of the major fleets fighting each other out there at sea somewhere, you know, but we see in reality that it's not that way now. In

Challenges in Naval Strategy and Acquisition

the Red Sea is a perfect example, you know, the you don't have to have a navy in the narrow seas, as he said, given modern technology, shore based airpower, fast attack craft, submarines, missiles and minds can achieve sea denial without requiring superior surface naval forces. This has tended to deprive traditional sea power of its ability to command narrow

seas adjacent to enemy held lands. Guess what all that stuff around Taiwan, all the stuff around the Philippines, you know, those are that those fit the definition of narrow seas. You're not going to take your carrier battle group into the Strait of Taiwan to fight the war, there's no way. So what assets should we have to fight that war? And who's been thinking about that? The littoral Littal combat Ship was supposed to be one approach, but we all

know how that worked out. I asked them on X the other day, anybody's seeing any contracts for the fast attack craft that we're going to be needing to fight the Western Pacific. No, nobody's seen those contracts because there aren't any. And I don't know what's going on with The Congress has got to be aware of the limitations of the kind of navy we have. We are not built to fight close in to shore battles, no other

ways to do that. And you know, I think we've talked about that in the past, but I think this whole situation creates a it's a it's a real problem for us. You know, if we're always preparing for the last world, we better start preparing for the next one.

Speaker 1

I've had I've made similar comments in the past. Google, Well, that's that's what the Litoral combat ship is for. Theatoral combat ship is roughly the size of a World War Two destroyer. It's not a fast attack craft. It's very lightly armed, and it was designed in an intellectual erranium or over twenty years ago. It's it's not the answer. And again it goes back to you know, ten years after the Pacific pivot. It's our our acquisition structure is

so risk adverse and hide bound. It lacks the ability to respond, innovate and create in an appropriate cycle. Now, you look at the development of ships and aircraft from the nineteen twenties through the nineteen sixties, which if you do the map, that's just forty years. So back up forty years and go back to nineteen eighty four and ninety four. Excuse me, and you look at the No. Eighty four Yeah, there we go. You look at the

pace of development in the iterations. We are still producing F sixteens and F fifteens designed in the nineteenies, modern ning, et cetera. That's wonderful, that's nice. But even when we try to advance our systems no longer when not talking about systems, our acquisition systems, our development cycles that in theory should support the national security requirements, but it's been flipped. The national security requirements support the acquisitions. I think a

perfect example of that. Bravozulu to the folks and naw there who made this decision what the Air Force now calls the next generation air Dominance ingad what the navyes call it, F eighteen XX. We decoupled from the Air Force and said you do your thing. We're going to do our things because of the lessons that people that are like talking about Plight Company with the F thirty five, so we want to do our own thing. Well after untold billions of taxpayer dollars have already been expended on this.

The Air Force is called a full stop because they want to develop. They don't think that what they've been doing is affordable, which same problem we have with CGX. People lack program control and making hard decisions, so everybody got a trophy and you can't afford it when everybody gets a trophy, so it's unaffordable. In fact, they don't

think that it meets future requirements. Well, nobody knows what future requirements are, so it looks like they've gone they went down the exquisite route and realized it can't happen, just like CGX.

Speaker 3

The Navy, though, is continuing on with its version.

Speaker 1

So we're not going to get stuck in a compromised spiral like we did with the F thirty five. Again, it's running late, but we haven't called a stop to it. The cno mentioned recently, you know that her direction to the program is focuses on a lot of what we've wanted to see as well, which is a focus on survivability, range, affordability.

Speaker 3

Those things.

Speaker 1

We'll see how it comes out, so you know, the whole joint concept. This can be a little little star going.

Speaker 3

See.

Speaker 1

This is why he want everything to be one program because the program risk is non zero. And you know who knows that the Air Force can't get their act together in the FA eighteen replacement, which is what this is for the whole of including the growler. If that's a good enough platform, then maybe the Air Force will go okay, we'll take the hatch. So it might work out in the end, but again it's taking so long. The Air Force is looking at having their end gad replaced the F twenty two.

Speaker 3

We'll recall while.

Speaker 1

The Gates got rid of, the F twenty two was at one third or one quarter the size of the buye they wanted to have because it.

Speaker 3

Was too expensive.

Speaker 1

So it looks like the Air Force acquisitions is it's repeating the mistakes that have been identified for years, but nobody is willing to make the effort to change, and again, we talked about this almost every show last week. I talked to some individuals as well on this topic offline, and they all just blink. It's almost like the job is too big, the system is too much of a monster. The knots are tooth thick that they're nobody sees a

way to change. I don't know if there's a technical term for organizations that they know they have to change.

Future of Military Development and Change Management

It's existential that they have to change, but it's so hard that they won't. I don't know what the right word to describe that, but I think that's kind of where we are.

Speaker 3

And you can have what the Air Force is doing with INGAD. As reference to Zula's.

Speaker 2

I think the term you're looking for is bankrupt. If you're talking corporations, you're too kind. Well, you know, so, I can't remember it was Wayne Hughes or who we talked to, but you know, people have suggested that we have these these and it could have been Hendrix and his Ford's not Ferrari's. You know, it's fine to have a big, cool, blue water fleet, but it's also necessary to have the fleet that you're going to fight with.

And if we're going to fight in narrow seas in the literals, if and all that, we have all these options that people have presented us to have presented to the US over the years. We've looked at the the Visbee's, We've looked at other you know, frigate type or I'm not even sure what the the other word is for ships that size. And then we had, you know, these things like the M. E. D. Stiletto from Chips. We had the our own patrol hydrofoils heavily those those were sweet.

I mean, those were heavily armed, went fast, didn't draw much water. And you know, if you if you lose on how many people they had on them, eight ten, I don't know, you know, if that makes them more expendable. Reminds me of the of the World War Two torpedo boats. You know, they were expendable at least, but then you know, they provided They weren't great at the job, but that was a lot of problems with the torpedoes and and some of the other things, but some of the missions

they carried out we were quite important. You know, we

Navigating Naval Strategy and Fleet Composition

just need to get that. Certainly, during Vietnam, we had a lot of Riverine forces, and we're using things like minesweepers to do some of the interdictions from a time operations. I mean, I just think there are people, but it's not career enhancing. You know, if you're if you're the expeditionary force, what do you call that? The the guys who run the small boat operations?

Speaker 1

Now, na will expeditionary comeback command?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean I wait to see the first one of people who comes out of that who makes flag. Now, maybe I'm wrong, Maybe I'm maybe they've already made flag and I just don't know it, but it is from from where I see things. That is one of those things like, yeah, that's nice, we have this program and they do things like harbor protection and stuff like that, but you know where the where are the bigger assets, where are those very potent missile boats, raft semi submersibles.

I'm let's take some lessons from the from the as the Marines have done, the narcotics importers from South America. Let's let's think. Let's think some small, highly armed quick votes that can can can sneak through things. I mean, I just it's just it just amazes me that we are so limited and to if it's not from Boeing or Raytheon, it gets no votes. I mean, that's that's that's just absurd.

Speaker 1

I think I think part of the problem is too and this is derived from too many years of peace. Is like, for instance, before I get back to my point, I was about to make so easily distracted. You know, everybody likes to poo poo the Oliver Hair Perry Oliver Perry, Oliver H. Perry class frigates, but when you actually look at their combat record, they're a pretty darn effective platform.

But I think part of our problem is in times of peace because you don't have real world examples, and the few that you have people like to ignore is your war game. And you'll find nobody that likes war games better than I do. But war games are very limited because your war games are shaped and bounded by, first and foremost about how you're doing war game, who your judges, what your entering arguments are, what your assumptions are.

But they are also very limited to the fact that there are certain things I don't care if you have it eight or twelve sized did die that you can't quantify. There are two maths driven for instance, you know, you're talking about the smaller ships, and everybody adds things on they're not smaller ships because they're not quote capable enough. But everybody loves to talk about Taffy three. Let's talk

about Taffy three for a little bit. Tappi three. Everybody who listens to mid Rats should know what that is, if not google it. I'm not going to spend twenty minutes explain it. But the Japanese Center Force had the battleships Yamoto no Goto, Congo, Haruna had the heavy cruisers and I can't pronounce Japanese Choki, Haruga, Karuma, Saruza, Shikuma, Tone and light cruisers. They had eleven destroyers. It was huge, and they got turned around by Tappy three that had

three destroyers. And it's a shame we don't have destroyers with these names today. The whole, the Harriman and the Johnson, and the destroyer escorts, the Dennis, the Butler, the Raymond, and the Samuel B. Roberts, the og and forget which book it was, but years ago I read where they

were talking about the destroyer escorts. And by this time of the war there were people in the Navy, who were you know, patting the destroyer escorts from the head says, you know what, you only have one battery of torpedoes.

Speaker 3

Let's take those off and let's just.

Speaker 1

Give y'all more triple A because all of our war games, you know, triple A is what we need you for. You're never going to have to go on in the fight. The feedback from the from the destroyer escort guys were like, no, it's like, one day you're going to ask us to play with the big boys, and we need those torpedoes to play with.

Speaker 3

The big boys.

Speaker 1

And if you war gamed the Japanese Center Force against the three destroyers and four destroy escorts, you would never get the outcome of what actually happened there because you cannot quantify that. However, just because a small unit on paper does not match up to a big unit, if they're properly led, properly resourced, they can play the game

a lot better than you think. And going back to some of the things we were talking about earlier on the show, I think the People's Republic of China has proven that where if you look since two thousand, if you look at the People's Republic of China's military and national security structures compared to the US, NATO, Japan and our allies, you would never have expected that they would have been able to advance as much as they have, But they have because of their focus and their leadership

and a little bit of up. And it's the same thing for those smaller units. People say a fast attack craft X y Z, we don't need ten of those, we need two more early burgs. And I can make both arguments, but if you don't have that tool in your toolbox, then you don't have those options. If the decision was made that those destroyer escorts didn't need to be configured to do anything but triple A, would Taffy three have turned out the way that it did and probably not.

Speaker 2

Yeah, it's a remember General Van Riper, Yeah, and we had him on I mean, we had him other show years ago and we were talking about the his word game where he violated the rules of the game or something. But but you know, swarming attack on ships. They basically,

Lessons from History: The Taffy 3 Engagement

you know, they had to stop the clock and restart because it was an embarrassment up to that. I mean, it's not like we don't know these things. It's like we just don't want to think about it. And when you know, when they do think about it, Okay, how are we going to stop a swarm attack? And you know that, then it gets into well, we're going to have these cool weapons here and this and that and such, and you know, until we get those things deployed, you

got you got some serious issues. And the other concern that people have about using smaller ships or smaller craft just getting them to where they're going to be used. And no matter how many times you give them a picture of a of a yacht carrier carrying uh, you know, several dozen yachts from through the Red Sea or wherever. You know, that gets ignored. How are we going to sustain them? And we can always go up with the

same answer. Way. You sustain them with the tenders we don't have, or you turn you turn some of the amphibs, which are otherwise useless ships as far as I can tell them an engagement with with China, you turn them into support vessels for these smaller craft. I mean, it's not like we have to rethink everything. We have hauls, we have assets we could use. It's just that we

have to have the somebody to make the decision. You know, it would be a really good idea if we had I don't know, one hundred PGG you know whatever the current version of a patrol hydrofoil missile would be. So, you know, and are they you know these some of these stealth things like the stiletto and the sea shadow and all those other cool things that came up when Sabrowski and Hughes and some of the other people who were really thinking about this problem. I mean, and how

long ago was that? Twenty five years? What have been when doing for twenty five years?

Speaker 1

And you mentioned it earlier. But one of the worst arguments against it that I hear is it's the other side of the coin. Hav any of these people made admiral is People always say we can't design a career path for that. Well, we have no shortage of junior officers who would be more than happy to do this, because guess what, admiral. They don't want to be an admiral.

They don't want to stay in for twenty years. They want to serve their country and then get out, and they'd be more unhappy to have their last last year in the Navy as the person in charge of a fast attack craft. They'd be more unhappy to do that, and then they'll get out, and then you could have some special mission service warfare. Guy who didn't get a destroyer can then be part of the flotilla command whatever.

That and one thing we haven't looked at, And for me, if I'm wrong, I think we had some version of this with our riverine craft in Vietnam. But the US Army has some pretty impressive kit that is run by warrant officers, okay, kind of like the helicopters and some of their watercraft, which we talked about earlier this year.

We will talk about that debacle today. Okay, fine, I bet you've got lots of BM ones out there and Ian ones who would love to run one of these ships as well, and would probably do a damn fine job. You know, why can't we look at what other services do to access some of the intellectual and professional capital. And they're enlisted forces? Yeah, you know, you got yeah four of them. One of them has Lieutenant j. G on it and the other three have warrant officers or

senior chiefs are running them. Probably worked better that way. There are ways to look at that if you want that capability, but it has to get off the PowerPoint slide, it has to get off the podcast and actually get sponsorship program a record, which goes into our procedures as well. But it's the problem appreciation that we've been going on for a long time. We know the Imperial we we know what we need if we are going to be asked to fight west of international dateline, But are we

resourcing it or are we just running on inertia? It mostly seems to be the last even you know, like Paul I Believe mentioned early on in the show, and I promised him we'd back to it. He asked about something we talked about last week, which was the number of SM three's that we expended. I saw a real nice comment over my substackle like it, and I want to try to use this term or often is if you're only producing a dozen items a year, that's not

a manufacturing product, that's a craft project. So if we are crafting a dozen missiles that we will blow out in the course of one day against a fourth rate power that we're also attacking with B two to now, because we don't have other assets that can attack a fourth rate power, we've got to use B twos from Missouri. Okay, fine, then how do you transition from craft built to wartime production? That's a done good question, and I would love to

have a supply chain guy. Maybe we could get one of the guys who got paid in that four hundred million dollar research project that Bob Work was involved with to talk about the supply chain issues. Where are those those barriers?

Speaker 3

Are that bottleneck?

Speaker 1

If we need to go from producing twelve a year to one hundred and twenty a year, how do we go from craft to maritime production. That would also be an indication that we're not continuing to balk on the Pacific pivot because it's clear what we really need if we decide that we will defend the interest of Taiwan with the US Navy, because it doesn't seem like we are backing that up with the actual production.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think it's vital that stuff like that gets you know, somebody needs to kick it and the people in the rear in and you know, we need how

The Need for Modernization in Naval Warfare

many more himers, how many more systems that we can use SM three's how many x y zs Because as we've many times have discussed on here, the rate of expenditure of weaponry and work far exceeds. Hey, what anybody can believe unless they're actually have fought in war and it is I mean, I just look at infantrymen in World Wark too, and you know how many how many rounds of ammunition did they consider enough to go into battle?

And you just you figure when you read the books that their idea of what they had to carry was a whole lot more than what the book said they were supposed to carry. So it just uh, some you know, maybe it's because we have a somewhat of a vacuum at the top where there'sn't anybody seeming to take charge

with any seriousness of where we're going with this. I mean, I know SECT now seems to be trying some, and c Ando seems to be trying some, but I don't know if anybody on the hill or in the executive branch is really paying attention to what the needs are if if we had to go fight a real fight.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 1

I saw one person responding to common Amay a few years ago about magazine Depth. He said, well, you know, we we ran a war game recently that showed X, Y and Z, and I was like, Okay, what was your VLS load out? You know tomahawk to you know tee lamb standard missile? What variety of standard missile? He just kind of blinked at me. He's like, well, I

remember off the top of my head. But you know, everybody was was able to properly engage when we do the percentages of say, okay, well what was your launch? There's your launch protocol? Shoot look shoot or shoot shoot look shoot. He just kind of looked at me and blink. He didn't say one way or another, which told me you didn't know. But you can run these games where you say everybody's going to go shoot, look, shoot, which

means you fire and missile. See if you hit your target, and if you miss, you fire again.

Speaker 3

Shoot look shoot.

Speaker 1

But I got news for you. If you've got if you're the skipper of a ship and you've got a couple of cruise missiles and anti ship ballistic missile coming at you, you're gonna shoot shoot, look, shoot, And if you do more than that, you're going to do that as well, because you don't have a luxury time and that totally changes your consumption rate, and eventually those ships are going to have to come off the line especially, and this is why a lot of the smart people

that you and I talk to always go back to VLS sells. If a decision has ever made that our fleet needs to go west of the International date Line to do stuff in the Western Pacific, is you're going to have, I assume, especially with our cruisers going away, it seems like every couple of months you're going to need a heavy teelam load out because you're going to

have to engage targets shore. And for every bank of mark forty one vs sls you fill up with the tee lamb, that's one that you can't put a aired air missile on. So how long do you go Winchester until you run out? And then how do you reload that? Where do you find those? How long does it take to get there? Do you once you have X number of ships with you use up most of their their long range anti ship missiles, but they still have their

their Tomahawk missiles? How long do you have them continue with you when they can only do point defense with their their c ram or their essms. They have got quad packed and a few of them. Now that's the real hard math that I don't think a lot of these war games are capturing, but there are some other

war games that do capture it. And that's when you talk to people who just they say, yeah, we got out of a war game and I can't talk about the details, but I need to drink, and that's I think those So there are people out there that are running what I think you and I would consider a real hardcore war game because they get they need a drink and they won't talk about it. But that's not what you hear up on the hill. You know, war games are like anything else. You can pick, pick and

choose what you want. But the math, the math is pretty harsh. If you look at when did the Hoofy shoot at the Mason?

Speaker 3

Was it almost ten years ago? Anyway? If you look at some of.

Speaker 1

The engagements we had, especially in the last year, we've got some really good figures about the expenditure requirements. The next NDAA that comes up, it'll be interesting to see whether that's reflected any of the numbers that come out of that tube. But they're going to have to find the money from someplace else. I don't know whether they're well.

Speaker 2

I think it's going to take somebody like like cno or as Secretary of Navy to go to Congress and say, you know, you want us to provide to maintain the sea lanes in an open condition for the rest of the world. We're going to need a whole hell of a lot more money and a lot more attention paid to what we're doing as far as the as the c services go. Because just as we've proven the Red Sea, you know, that is one of those problems where we've spent a lot of organs and we now got the shoes,

say the Air Force involved with it, B two. That's great. I'm glad they you know, big ground penetrating whatever in there. But you know, has the problem been solved? Is it going to be solved?

Speaker 3

We?

Speaker 2

You know what what what is the next nation that that has a some beachfront property that's going to threaten the international trade because they can't you know there? Is it going to be one of the Southeast Asian nations that's unfriendly to the rest of the world. I've got got missiles now that can range out to see and if you guys don't do what I want, then I'm going to stop all merchant traffic going through here I mean, and this is this, this could grow, what's the what's

the worst? This could get out of hand quickly? And the line from Red October.

Speaker 1

Yeah it again, it's all incentives and distance in it's like, well it worked for it worked for Yemen, why can't it work for us?

Speaker 2

And you know you can't.

Speaker 1

And not all the world's nations are led by people who learned how to conduct their trade craft at the model you in in high school.

Speaker 3

There are.

Speaker 1

Are some hard players out there who cut their teeth somewhere else besides the weekend and and over, and you

Production Challenges in Military Readiness

can't deal with those people like you did with the kid who came in from San Diego when you're seventeen. And they are going to respond to power, what works, what doesn't work. And that's the whole essence of.

Speaker 2

Terrence.

Speaker 1

I guess it's not only what you say, it's what you do. And I don't think that we have a really great record of that. Recently, Again, the damage from what we did in Afghanistan is it's going to have some stick to itiveness when it comes to us being able to get some friends. Also lost a lot of goodwill amongst our legitimate friends from Iraq, and that's going to stick with us for a while. So a little bit of humility about not only what we've done, but

our perception of the world, I think is helpful. And a part of that perception of the world is to understand that Koreans, Russians, Chinese, Burmese, they don't think the same way do. They don't think better, they don't think worse. They're human beings just like you and me, but they have a different perspective on how you achieve your personal

and national goals. And we used to be able to spot weld other cultures onto this global international order that we've tried to put together, but I'm not sure those welds are holding as well as they should.

Speaker 3

And a jolt to.

Speaker 1

The system, like the People's Republic of China being able to relatively bloodlessly call the world's bluff and exert full control over Taiwan, that might pop that weld. And that's a different planet.

Speaker 2

Yeah, you know, it's the same thing we keep discussing. If every war becomes you trying to turn whoever you're fighting into your friends by making them a democracy instead of just going in and killing the bad guys. And you know, sometimes that has consequences like you get a bad front page copy on the New York Times, like Israel gets right now, you know, but there is no Sometimes there's just no choice.

Speaker 3

You know.

Speaker 2

There are people out there, and it's not understating things for the the Israelis have put it. You know, they're dealing with a cult that does not mind dye because they think if they die fighting for their cause, they're gonna they get they go to heaven and get their seventy because it's seventy versions. I can't remember anymore. Seventy

seventy two. Yeah, I don't know why that number anyway, it's you that is that, that is the that is the mindset you got to you gotta fight, and it's you know, we were never going to convert everyone in Afghanistan to be uh people who would like to live in They maybe would like to live in Scarsdale, but they're not the you know, that's that really is not part of their goal in life, which is to achieve status with such that they would get rewarded with seventy two of something.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I think, Yeah, you brought up Israel, and in the back of my head, I gotta wonder is kill them all a valid strategy. But I think what we've seen is the stalding nature of those horrors of the seventh of October of twenty three, that that reset a lot of assumptions.

Understanding Global Power Dynamics and Military Strategy

Speaker 3

Inside of Israel.

Speaker 1

They they they have tried land for peace. They've tried, you know, we'll exchange a thousand prisoners for one of ours. They've tried a lot of things, and they've had success, and they've had neutrals. Egypt is a neutral, I would call it when you look at the tunnels coming from Egypt and the Goths, but that that's.

Speaker 3

Just old fashioned corruption.

Speaker 1

They had a lot of success with the Gold States and even Saudi Arabia, who wants to modernize, because they have you know, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and they all have that enemy of Shia Iran, which as long as it's under the control of the fundamentalist is going to be a problem. But when it comes to Hamas and Hezbala, all these exquisite international arrangements, and let's be clear, the international community not only is abandoned Israel,

it's downright hostile to it. When you look at the UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon, who were obstensibly there to promote peace. They promoted an incredible military infrastructure by Hesbla right there on the Israeli border. In the Israelis have basically told the un stay in your tower, don't get in our way.

Speaker 3

We've got to do things.

Speaker 1

There's a realization, I think inside the Israeli mind that these international niceties they were trying to play along with for the last thirty some odd years that wind up getting over a thousand of their citizens murdered, tortured, rate kidnap and they're done playing. So maybe if you're dealing with irrational people, all you can do is kill them where you find them, which is kind of what they're doing, probably doing a lot, a lot kinder than a lot

of nations are. I always look at you know what, if we had something similar coming out of northern Mexico that all happened in a day, and you scaled up for population, would we do anything different?

Speaker 3

I don't think so.

Speaker 1

No.

Speaker 2

I think we Well, if you go historical precedents, I mean, if the raids on a Columbus, New Mexico and and the thempunity of action that was let down there by pershing. I think we we did respond, although we were going after a theoretically at an army I guess, but yeah, I mean terrorism. You know the original goal of our physicition in Afghanistan was to punish the terrorists and the

people who support them. And you know, once you've done a certain level of that, you hope that they get the message and they quit doing whatever they were doing. But you know, to go in and then decide, well, yeah, and also we're gonna make sure all the goats are properly groomed and everything else that's head just just gets mind bodiling how much wastage there is and things that did really move the war forward at all, get us out of the situation we went into.

Speaker 1

Well, hey, I just I just realized that we have just spent an hour, so we have used up our quota for everybody. I don't know anything any as my Army friends would say, any saved rounds before we signed off for the day.

Speaker 2

I wasn't gonna laugh at the at the Army's Navy because their bow ramp fell off one of their one of their craft. But I'm tired of beating up on army right now, So that was it very.

Speaker 3

Very charitable of you?

Speaker 1

Well, yeah, I had a few things left on my sheet as well, but we can easily go for another hour. I'd like to thank everybody who did join us live and who hopped in the chat room. We had some real good exchanges there, and again, we're not gonna have a show next week, but Lord Willing.

Speaker 3

In the creek don't rise. We will see you.

Speaker 1

There in November. Thanks for being with us today. Thank you everybody. I hope y'all have a great Navy Day.

Speaker 3

Cheers,

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