Good evening and welcome. My name is Eugene Grogan and as director of the Centre, It's my great pleasure to welcome you all to the second session of our Monday night seminars examining the political options following the cost of war. Before we begin, may I just remind everyone that in the event of a fire, there are three escapes in this room. They're marked by green lights over the doors. But there's two on either side here.
There's one on the back. The doors here lead down the staircase and outside directly. So if there's a source of fire for that, please make your way to these doors and out. And can I please ask once again that no one obstructed that back firing at the back of the hall so that in the event that we needed to evacuate the room, that we could do so without obstruction. So please keep that back. Feel free. Thank you.
Last week we opened the seminar series, Setting out the Agenda, what we hope to achieve and creating a platform for dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians, examining what the political options coming out of the Gaza war might look like.
Our view in that was that we wanted to privilege the voices of politically engaged people who had the most at stake and to avoid the tendency that we have outside of Israel and Palestine to say what we think reasonable solutions should be and then try to impose them on the people involved. We thought that it would be most constructive for us to hear directly from people from the region.
And in that spirit. It is with great pleasure that I welcome Professor Guy Tamir, the president of the college, to address the seminar. Professor Tamir is, as I said, president of big burial of one of Israel's oldest colleges of liberal arts college, which seemed very much in line with her own political views and trainings.
No stranger to Oxford, she returns to her alma mater tonight, where she was a student affiliated college from 1985 to 1989, working with the legendary Isaiah Berlin to examine the seeming oxymoron of liberal nationalism. It was a theme that she was to make her own in two books published with Princeton University Press. The first liberal nationalism came out in 1993 and more recently in 2019. Why nationalism? Still a good question.
One of the founders of Peace now Unity, was elected to the Knesset in 2003 as a Labour MK, where she served for seven years. But even before entering the Knesset as a member of Parliament, she was invited to serve as a member of Cabinet. Her first speech as a minister of immigrants absorption in Ehud Barak's government in 1999. She then returned to Cabinet in 2006 when Ehud Barak invited her to serve in her in his cabinet. I'm sorry, Olmert. Olmert, the first one, but not the second one.
Other than revealing myself to be a scholar of the Arab world, But at any rate, 26, regardless of who the prime minister was and was invited to serve in Cabinet as education minister through her years in academia, as a political activist in the Knesset and in the Cabinet, nobody has developed the kind of networks and understanding of the society and the politics of Israel that would be unmatched.
And so we were delighted that she accepted our invitation to come and speak tonight to us about public opinion in Israel and the constraints that that imposes on the political options after the seventh year. Would you please join me in extending a very warm welcome to. Thank you, Jane. It's official. Do they have officers? When did you first come to me? When I would come and join the seminar, which was early after the events of the 7th of October.
I wrote back. I usually say I'm happy to come, but I can't possibly write the word happy. So I would say I'm winning. And I think that captures the feeling that I still have and is still very common in Israel today. About 2 minutes. It's very hard to convey the facts of the sadness and the mourning. We experience on a daily basis. I work a lot. So when I go to bed, huge gaps in the cigarette. I open my Facebook and I look for recipes because I love cooking.
So I like that. And the last thing is that maybe Friday evening, listen to this. I don't open my Facebook. Because if I open my Facebook. I see faces of young, the people, the families, the stories. It's like an endless roll of dust. And I think this experience shapes the way we now live and feel and function. Grief is very difficult to deal with, and national police is even harder to deal with. Because your own grief is echoed everywhere.
On news. In the street. People, you know, people don't ask you anymore in the street. How are you? Because nobody knows what to say. People say, well, considering that stuff's. And considering the terrible things that are happening around us, I'm so much. Did they pressure to witness what happened on the seven of October? Is it north? And. I think shapes. A collective experience of trauma. Probably similar. Maybe. Only to the six.
To the Yom Kippur War. To the 73 War. I definitely am not going to use the Holocaust as an example. I don't think the Holocaust is a proper example, though it is very common in Israel now to talk about the Holocaust. I think it's a terrible thing. But we need proportion. And the thing that we lack now on all sides is proportion. So one day I heard this interview with a very old lady from one of the people saying, you know, now the heroes of Israel are the kibbutzim.
Well, mothers who are really resilient stood in. Unbelievable. Terrible conditions to defend and make sure that the children. And she's a Holocaust survivor. And. She was asked, you know, she stayed in a room with two little babies for 14 hours. How they survived. Her son was killed. And they said to her. So it's like the Holocaust. And she said, No. In the Holocaust. I was there for four years and I had no state.
It's not the same thing. And I think it's very important for us to say that something terrible shattering happened to us. But it still. We can go on. And the question I think that is on the table here today is how can we structure a better future? Now, it is very difficult under these circumstances to be positive or open or even express empathy to the sorrow and the pain of the other side.
Because I'm sure that if you'll have somebody from Gaza standing here, they would express horror and fear and devastation. And I think they'd come see us and we can't see them at the moment because it is all about survival, the way they've tried to survive. Your first look around you and you try to protect yourself and yourself and your friends, and only then you are able to go further. So the question what Israel thinks at the moment.
If there is such an answer, is a bit irrelevant because the talks. And now grounded in animosity, in fear, in the revenge, and a desire to somehow regain some security in the future of Israel. But as we all know, this is something amazing that I learned. Time and again, humans are more resilient than they think they are. And we haven't reached the point of resilience. But we will reach him. And when we will reach it, it will be the beginning of a moment of reflection.
So first of all, I have very little expectation. Of. Reflectiveness among Israelis right now. True. I would love to have a government that reflects. But you don't want to hear what I think you the government, regardless of what happened in October. I think our government is now exactly doing the opposite, the opposite of what should be done. It incites the public to be more extreme rather than somehow. Helping to manage the crisis and the crisis is risk.
They haven't created the crisis. The Hamas created the crisis. But how you treat the crisis means a lot. And when you start thinking about something in a certain way that shapes also the solutions that are that seem feasible to you. So I would like to say one more thing before I sort of try and reflect about where we're going from here, just because I think that it is. I said this is long holocaust. But it is. A traumatic, horrifying event.
In the history of Israel. And I think it shows something about the Hamas and our enemies on the other side. I have been supporting negotiations with the Palestinians since I was very young. In retrospect, maybe too young have an opinion. But, you know, I still believe that if there would be some good development in the Middle East, it would be based on negotiations with the Palestinians. But I don't see the Hamas as a possible partner in this thing.
That is, I think, something that is very important to remember. And this is why the 7th of October is not just another intifada or another case where you are asked to respond to in violence, but nevertheless political, national liberation. If you were in the Hamas government. And I wish all these people who shout Israel should be free from the river to the sea. What with the Hamas movement, you would say that the only purpose of the Hamas is if you had.
It's a religious war. Is to let Israel kill the Jews here, the infidels. It's a jihadist movement. And the way that you have your movements, I can't see your point of negotiation. And when people say to me from the river to the sea, I understand that I have no place in that solution. The whole idea of reconciliation is that just the two sides will find a less satisfying yet liveable solution. And the Hamas doesn't want us to. And I think that should be extremely clear.
And what they have done on the 7th of October. Meant to frighten us to death. And it did, because it wasn't just killing people. It was defused. It was the rape. It was the beheading. It was burning people alive. It was something that is for me, outside of the human range of actions. And it was purposeful that we saw the people from Hamas coming with instructions how to do it, because they wanted us to be afraid. And we are afraid. Israel has been shrinking since the war to the centre.
No one in the south, No one in the north. So the Hamas conquered Israel by fear. And by the way, we did the same thing to Gaza. It's about making people so frightened that they go away. But as we know, the truth of the matter is nobody is going to go away because we don't have where to go and they don't have to go. So I think that at some point, the the dialogue will have to change. And I think the question that we are asking ourselves right now is, can we change the president?
So the first thing that I think is extremely important to understand that nothing will change until the hostages will be brought back home safely. This time is the time of bringing back the hostages. Everybody in Israel lives the experience of the hostages every hour of the day. If you go off of the Israel now, you go to the airport. There are pictures. You go to a shopping mall. The pictures people have haven't.
Constantly in their mind, especially that we know that people that are kept there have been tortured, raped, abused, and some not some quite a lot of them died every day. Many of them are elderly. Many of them are women. Most of the children came back and said to death, We don't know whether they are alive or not. But if releasing the hostages is something that is absolutely, absolutely necessary for any future solution.
No Israelis that right left centre would say we can survive with a solution that does not bring the hostages back. So that's I think taking the hostages was one of the most not only brutal, but one of the most influential aspects of what happened and is now if there is really a firm precondition for everything else is the hostages. Second is that. In order for the hostilities to be. To end. People in the north and the south should feel safe to go back home.
My family lives partially in Manara, which is a kibbutz in the north and partly in Mosul in the south. They are all evacuees that nobody wants or can go back home. Third of Israel is evacuated. People need to be able to go back home. Israel cannot know country. Sometimes we forget about Israel. Maybe some countries can live with, you know. With people being held in captivity.
And the Japanese. I lived for many years with people held in Korea and Americans living with people with being held in Vietnam. Israel, No, but territorially. Israel cannot survive this way now. People need to go home and they need to have enough of a security to go home and to feel safe when they go home with their children and their families. So finding a guarantee and I know there are no absolute guarantees that no eternal guarantee is unrealistic.
I'm old. I've seen everything, but at least enough of a guarantee that people will be able to go back home is absolutely essential. And you should remember that the people there in the cells that were slaughtered were not only the best people, they were peace lovers. The people that were slaughtered were active in the peace movement. They used to go to Gaza to help the Gazans survive. I don't think they made the Gaza life in Gaza wonderful because life in Gaza has been terrible for many years.
But there were people fighting for people in Gaza. Our friends Vivian Silva, who was burned to ashes, was one of the biggest peace activists. She was buried in her home life. People will not take this risk. And I decided not to bring pictures because I think there is now too many you know, it's a tyranny of the eye. We see it a lot and we think. And we don't think enough because seeing is now dictating how we react. And what you see is really hard to take in.
So I know a lot of Google companies are now showing all these terrible videos. I decided not to do it. I think you are all able to imagine that in your mind's. But people need security in Israel. And the third thing is that we all know, whether it's the Israelis, the Palestinians, and I think the region, because don't forget, this is a regional issue, okay? We are not disconnected from the conflict between the United States and Iran.
Iran is a big player in this game. Iranian forces formed an odd thing in Yemen that they didn't know even existed. I must say everybody in the beginning said, Why? Why are they part of the game? To the Hezbollah? To the jihad, Islamic Jihad. It's an Iranian game and it's an Iranian game playing against the Americans, the regime that brings the two power into play.
Unfortunately, in our region, by the way, for those of you who know anything, we if you know the history of this region, most of whatever begins and ends with the fact that we are in a tiny piece of the world when everybody tried to control and then left in a way that created a conflict. The Ottomans, the Brits, the Middle East are somehow being divided and left alone to solve its own problems. And now I think that's, I think, the most important message.
We cannot solve on our own. There is long enough. Resources. Military resources. Human Resources. Leadership. Consensus. In the region. To move in it. Gaza is paralysed. Whether the Hamas is there or not. At the moment, I don't think they can do anything but survive. Israel is a survivor. While Jordan is terrified that Islamic fundamentalism will start erupting in Jordan. Egypt is terrified that Islamic fundamentalism will erupt in Egypt.
Think about how unwilling the Egyptians are even to open the door for a period of time to allow the people of Gaza to move out. If they blocked the road. And you probably know the math, right? I wrote this little thing and interrupted this huge thing. And some Palestinians would have crossed the border and stayed in some camps across the border from Gaza into Egypt. Nothing would happen to Egypt. Egypt is enormous, right? It's the Sinai. I served in the Sinai and will decide. I will.
And place for us, the Palestinians and Tunisians. It's really a huge difference. But the Egyptians are fearing the implications of the conflict on Egypt, and Sisi is very clear about it. The king of Jordan is very clear about this. He has played the role, the game and the Lebanese are also frightening, frightened that, you know, this will spill to Lebanon. And it's that close to spilling actually, it is spilling into Lebanon.
And the question is how badly will Lebanon will be hurt now by this event? And the Hezbollah is playing this very delicate role, the ring around their part of the world, but not exactly part of the world, are really responding, but are actually paralysing the north. And, you know, it can erupt. I don't know what we're talking is going to happen. It's not something nothing's stable in the region. So this is a destabilised region. It's sort of all these regions of the region is very.
And unless there will be a lot of really global attempts to rethink the future of the region, it will erupt again and again and again. It's like a volcano every few years interrupts. And over all these eruptions, there were never, I think, any major successes in setting up a more stable solution, at least for a while. You know, when I was a child, my mother really loved the Bible, so she would read the Bible.
We are a very secular, but she loved the Bible, so she would read the Bible for me, for those of you know, the Bible. Telling the story of the people of Israel. It says every after every war and the country was quiet for 40 years and always said 40 years. That's why forever. Now, that's why I want to 40 years. I'll say that for 40 years of quiet. But something needs to be done to attend to the problems of the region from the outside. What? I mean, I'm not saying anything new.
I think the Biden administration. Then God forbid that we wouldn't have been able to cope with what happened without by then. But he's getting weaker. Hugely support to Israel. The Biden administration is now airing all sorts of proposals. And something really interesting happened. Again, as I said, I'm a veteran of the peace movement, so I still remember the early days of the peace movement. You may remember it well. You could say a Palestinian state using the Palestinian entity.
And then you said the Palestinian state. And then the concept died in the last few election in Israel. Nobody said Palestinian state. It was like. It evaporates? No, because by then started speaking about the Palestinian state. Bibi is saying, I am the only one. Who can stop the creation of a Palestinian state. Which means that the next election results in moments about the next election are going to be about a Palestinian state. And all my friends will think they can avoid it.
I think are wrong, adjusted to both Lapid and guns. You think you can avoid it? First interview, Bibi said, I'm the only one who can stop a Palestinian state. The next person asked you, And what's your opinion? You can't say I have no opinion about you.
So the Palestinians, this is going to be the question of the next election, which is in a way for me, the good news, because we finally have to look at what it's not something that we can chop under the carpet if we see every time we shut it under the carpet, if comes that the Palestinians are not going to disappear, we're not going to disappear. The country is not going to disappear. I think three things we have learned from the present situation. A, It must be built top down.
All my life I've been working on bottom up people to fair track to talking and negotiations. It's also part of the build-up of Negotiator for I don't know how many years Geneva. I've dedicated so many hours to people, to people in order to come up with a solution for a while and do a reasonable solutions. But they were always rejected. Now the move does not allow negotiations for people to people. There's no second tribe Palestinians.
I think one of the few people speaking Palestinian friends that we text each other, there's absolutely no way we can meet each other. I can't live with my friends in Gaza or in Ramallah. It's impossible. It's. Too much fluids. So the solution could come doped up. Now, where's the talk? The second thing we learn from the present conflict is that, as I said, this is a regional and maybe global game. We are players in a game that we were going to construct and.
If you ask why October hasn't. Probably because of this Saudi initiative that threatens. To leave the Palestinian issues. Outside of the dialogue. And and the people said, okay, there were the Abraham agreements. Palestinians were left dumbfounded would be so. Do you agree with the Palestinians or not there? I think that was one of the reasons for the timing of what happened. Again, nothing that I say justified what happened.
But we should understand that there is a political process behind it because it's one thing you could just go out and slaughter. It is a political process that and that's the thing that you learn that creates the most dangerous, volatile, impossible overlap in the world between religion and politics. And it's true on the Israeli side, and it's true for the Palestinians.
From the river to the sea. We have our right wing messianic groups who say from the river to the sea, the masses from the river to the sea. Those two parties we love to each other. They will see it as God's command and they will fight to make sure that they believe that afterwards they go to heaven and we will live in [INAUDIBLE]. So if the conflict. Is boiled down to a religious conflict. Nothing that happens in more and more people on both sides of becoming moral or religious.
This has nothing to do with culture. So the whole world is becoming more and more just. But in our case, it is extremely, extremely dangerous. And only I believe only and I am sorry if I offend anyone, but I think only people who are believers can slaughter people with a smile. Because they believe they fulfilled parts it. And again, it's crucial for both sides. People, normal people will take responsibility for their actions with an external justification and.
Some sort of eternal justification for us to do not do those things. They do don't bear children in the lives of people they don't. Abused boys. So we must move. From a religious conflict to a political corruption no less than full conflict and also great pleasure. But they are manageable. And the political conflict, I guess you send in by both sides being unhappy about it. But at least. Ready to live with the consequences of what they do.
First of all, they start by taking responsibility for what they do and for what they give up. And I'm certain that the only way we can move forward is by moving from the religious to the secular political conflict resolution sphere, where people are ready to compromise and believe that they have genuine political beliefs, which is probably one of the most important tools of political movement. They think they have the power of the people to compromise.
Again, if it's God, it's not for me to compromise. Humans can compromise and bear the cost of compromising or not compromising.
So given the fact that we need a more holistic solution, global solution, political solution to the region, um, I think that now what we're trying, I think that we see it coming from all sorts of directions are suggestions for building some sort of a process to allow Israel gain security, stop the war, realistically suggest probably in the other order, release the hostages in security, stop the war, and then start building the leadership in the territories,
both in Gaza and the West Bank, who are able to carry the burden of negotiations and compromise and a solution. This isn't going to happen immediately. Israel has destroyed the Palestinian leadership for many years and unfortunately supported the Hamas because it was in line with this desire not to give the solution and to get occupied in the West Bank and particularly in Gaza. So he's supported the Hamas for many years. It's now out in the open and and we certainly need to replace people.
So both initiatives. And not only because of his political opinions, but because of his reliance on the messianic view of Zionism, which is really the mirror image of the messianic view of Islamism. So what we need now is to create two leaderships that are able to communicate under the umbrella of some larger organisation. Most suggest, and I'll speak about. In a period that will bring together a coalition of forces that will govern the nation for a while.
I don't want to sit now alone with the coalition forces, and I don't know what's up for a while. A lot of people say the coalition should be built as a combination of European, American and our Palestinian forces, whether the Palestinians would be ready to partake in it. Salam Fayyad, one of the Palestinians I highly regarded as a very important and thoughtful person, said I would not be placed as the governor of Palestine or Gaza. I have to win this, and I can understand his view.
He wants to be elected. But before we have elections in Palestine and in the West Bank and Gaza, we need to sort out some sort of a process. You can see now open election in either Gaza or the West Bank. And remember, the Palestinian Authority has been postponing elections now for ten years. I'm not sure. But they don't want to do elections. So because they know what will happen in elections. Somebody told me I did. You said you did.
Then the people in Gaza wanted to see the five. And the people in the West Bank wants to see the Hamas. This is what people told me in the West Bank last spring. So each side is very cautious, long to have an election right now. So we need a process and we need an interim period. So let me just. Say two more things and it's my fault. Two more things about the Israeli side, and I'll be happy to answer questions rather than answers. So that's the first time I read for office.
It seems like in Israel there are two very important understanding that are sinking in. First, if we're not going to win this war. And you can't imagine how difficult it is because the first few days everyone to say and hear that Hamas gave them all the room and everybody in Israel was sure that this is what's going to happen. Like we're the strongest army in the Middle East. We've got our own stories. Unfortunately. This is not going to.
And it's also quite clear that you can't win over the families and bring all the hostages back to life. So people understand this war is not going to end rapidly. It's amazing how people I mean, this has been very experienced in wars and people always in the beginning have a sense that they know how it's going to end. And they always hope for the worst, mainly except maybe for the Six Day War, which actually in the long run was a disaster, but in the short term was a great victory.
So people have a sense of urgency and it's not going to end quickly. The Hamas is going to be eradicated. There's no victory, sort of a victory picture that we will wave and saying we won, we will there will be a misery and ongoing conflict. Soldiers are going to die today. Four soldiers died. That just opened my phone for a moment before entering a room for soldiers like today. And people will get fed up with it as it happened in Vietnam and it has been eradicated, that is.
And in Israel, it's more influential than anywhere else because we've known these soldiers. They are children, their friends, children, small society. So people understand we need something. It's not a military solution. It's not just taking over the Gaza Strip, this small place. We can do it. It's a long process. It's painful process. And it will have to end with some sort of an agreement. The second thing that people understand is that this government is not qualified to lead us.
I have a public opinion poll from today showing that if the elections were held today, then many guns. It was only eventually that it would happen. And it was very quiet about everything. Yes, 37 seats. It's amazing, right? It's going to be by far the largest party and what the social policies are. I know anything about them except. What we know. The Likud is down to 16 seats. Lapid is down to 14 seats and all the rest of the parties are small.
So actually now, if there was election today, you would create the conference government without all the fanatics on your right and without the. Which means that the people on the record would not want an election right now. They know how to read the polls and so on.
And the big questions we as Israelis face every time my friends say all the Gazans are to be responsible because they didn't get rid of the Hamas, I said, I'll say after we get rid of it, it's going to be hard because in the parliament has a majority, quite a solid majority. But unfortunately, I think we are going into an eruption of violence in the streets that will lead.
Two elections, and I don't know how long it will take. I assume with fanfare being the minister of Internal Interiors, internal Security people are going to die in the streets for the first time ever in Israel. But once the. More and more. Hostages will come back in coffins. There will be a huge eruption of violence and. I don't know how long it will take, but it will be, I think, a change of government at some point.
I don't think that the Palestinians in Gaza have enough power to get rid of the Hamas. They need something that will happen from the outside. To help them rebuild their leadership? I don't know. I've written about about the internal politics of FSA, how they can replace the Hamas with a political force that is able to negotiate with Israeli. The second thing that is happening is that people. So I adjusted to the thought that if there would be a solution.
If we include Palestinian state. Yesterday, Eugene asked me why I'm not running again. I said because my views are supported by less than 1% of the population. So it was a great prospect, however. And today there was a public opinion form that was very interesting that we asked. The public opinion poll I relied on was about how many Canadians are now supporting a two state solution because less than 1%. It used to be around 40. It was like going down dramatically.
But the poll today asked the question, and that, I think, made me realise, he said, I'm in favour of a comprehensive agreement that includes a the return of all the hostages. As I said, number one priority for everyone would be the creation of a demilitarised Palestinian state and normalisation with Saudi. Can you guess how many people support that? No, no. Moving from 1% to 51% and do not know 20% what it means. Something very significant and every to two things.
First of all, the larger the offer, the more attractive it is. If you just say one thing, I would guess out of this, 51%, a lot of people. So just get back to things. The hostages. So they said yes. But then in Saudi, look, people always think they know what how people would behave to a political process, you know.
But Winston, I think, is and most Israelis were against the peace solution with Egypt once again, all fell in love with them and always with Egypt and supported the peace agreement, the Abraham agreements, when they were just put on the table, everybody was against them. So, you know, all these people in the Gulf, we don't want to, you know, who otherwise should be even start working with her to me and say that everybody was going to Dubai and wearing the Javier's and playing that,
as you know. And the people from Dubai were like a daughter. He said he would talk to the people who were planning to speak for Europe. You see, are to be Javier in these. Right. Like the people clap because there are some people don't ask people what they think would happen, give them an offer that they consciences. And I think that's what we have to ask now from the international community. Feel and offer people some of resistance would be Israel is less of a lead.
There's a lesson the need in Israel for an economic incentive. Egypt needs money. Jordan needs when the Palestinians in fact, if there would be an offer that is good enough for all sides important, it's very important that every side will feel that they got something from the deal.
There is a good chance people will support and then if they want support beforehand, the moment they see an American president lands in Israel, we to I don't know, presidents from Europe and five Arab leaders, and within 3 hours people change their mind. So there will be different ideas. They will understand and they will do a lot of damage and would be fantastic.
So that of them. But the majority of people, I think this poll shows and the other polls that, you know, show will say yes to a reasonable solution. So this is actually up to you guys. We cannot produce it from within. And suddenly I'm certain the Palestinian Authority is at fault with it. Doesn't need to be the way the world takes responsibility over the really miserable Middle East and put forward some serious solutions,
serious resources. And, you know, as I always knew, an offer you can't resist. And once you put it on the table, I think we in Israel, the peace forces in Israel, will be revive the peace forces in Palestine will be revived, the region will be revived and people will start working. Now we're working, but. You know, we're pretty keen for the government to look. We have to listen to us. We need the help in order to make it happen.
Usually people you know, when I started my days in peace movement, people used to say, Don't go for them and all your problems will solve it. I say to myself, and a lot of people, go through your problems and ask for help. You know, as all your psychologists tell you, when you're in deep distress, ask for help. Maybe something good will happen. Thank you.