There’s a Stock Picker’s Paradise Waiting for You - podcast episode cover

There’s a Stock Picker’s Paradise Waiting for You

Mar 28, 202532 min
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Episode description

Alyx Wood, chief investment officer of UK-focused hedge fund Kernow Asset Management, joins Merryn this week. We discuss his contrarian approach to investing, where he is short, where he is long, and why he's decided to focus on UK equities. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to Meron Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I'm Meren sumsat Web. This week I'm speaking with Alex Wood, chief investment officer of Kerno Asset Management. Kerno describes itself as a contrarian investment manager, specializing exclusively in UK equities, currently about one hundred million pounds in

assets under management. Before co founding Kerno in twenty seventeen, Alex worked as a fund manager at Downing, a vice president at Deutsche Bank, and a management consultant at KPMG. Welcome Alex to Merin Talks Money.

Speaker 2

It's a pleasure, Miron. Thank you very much for your time. It's a bit surreal, little bit of a career highlight for me because I've listened to your show and I'm on it so and I just found out you're half your cornished as well, So this is this is perfect.

Speaker 1

I mean, this is a career highlight for me as well, and that so far we have never yet had a cornish person on who is a value orientated contrarian who specializes in the UK. It looks like hitting every single button for this podcast. So we're more excited than you are.

Speaker 2

Gott to tell you hopefully certain quality. But yes, I agree.

Speaker 1

Okay, so listen. Tell me about why you started this fund. What's the key behind it?

Speaker 2

Oh, it's been my lifelong dream since I've been investing since fifteen. I enjoy it. I love it. The opportunity set is amazing in the UK. The number of decent jobs and places you can practice this craft has been declining because of the growth of index hugging and businesses merging and forgetting how to make money. So the opportunity aligned got big enough and ivy enough to go for it, and so I did.

Speaker 1

Let's go back to the beginning of what you said that there aren't very many markets left where you can be properly active because the rise of passive are slightly destroyed the ability to do that. Can you talk a little bit more around that.

Speaker 2

It's more the index hugging. You know, it's a disease. You know, ten years ago there were four hundred U came up exaggerating ums a little bit, but the four hundred UK managers that were doing plus and minus ten percent.

Now you've got forty guys probably doing decent job and everyone else's plus and minus two on the index, and that index hugging that lack of conviction makes it very hard to find a job because if you go join a big house or a medium house, you're tracked against that, and if you go too far away, you get fired.

So you know, it's better to fail conventionally rather than win unconventionally, and you have to follow someone else's philosophy to have your own philosophy and come out of an investment bank in your twenties that doesn't exist anymore to join. I'm not going to use names, but some of the great training programs that still exists, they just don't give

you that career exposure anymore. There are places the multi straps are doing a pretty good job of the young people today, but the dearth of talent and opportunity is kind of frightening. The flip side of that, it creates huge opportunity and trend following now is massive. The wisdom of crowd don't exist of ais to the same extent, so fundamentals and reality are getting a long way from each other. And there's a lot of crazy, interesting things,

fascinating things going on today. And I'm chomping at the bitch on to capsule this and share it with people.

Speaker 1

Okay, that's very interesting. So what you're saying is something we have heard quite a lot on the part of the last few years, which is that the closet tracker never disappeared. There was a period when we all read a lot about closet trackers and we were infuriated by what they charged, et cetera, etc. And then there was

a view that gradually that would disappear. But from what you're saying, the most of the funds left in the UK that call themselves active funds are really closet trackers, and that's maybe one of the reasons why active has such a difficult time in theory. But the other thing that we have looked at recently is the performance of genuinely active funds. So if you look at funds with a very high active share, you tend to find a much more and much higher likelihood that they will.

Speaker 2

Outperform exactly, I would just caveat that. It's the larger funds have got larger as opposed to there aren't good There's still plenty of active, good high quality managers out there. It's just that the marketing machine has sucked it all up into the say, the twenty largest, and that proportion of assets has then flown in. And then you also have fun flows from interlashal investors pulling from small caps

and all the rest of it. So you have this quite interesting distortion and Carlstone flows out of acting markets and all this.

Speaker 1

Yes, but we still need to say it.

Speaker 2

It just creates pockets of opportunity. And you know how many people really do all the fundamental work and take a different view out of consensus. You're just not going to get paid for it. And I love it, so, you know, looking silly and being ridiculed making money doesn't go out of fashion. So that's what I'm going to stick to.

Speaker 1

Okay, And how's performance been.

Speaker 2

It's been good, it's been pleasing. I would have liked to have made more, but we've we've beaten the pack by a decent margin. That means we're starting to be taken seriously. Now we've got to do another five years of that before we have we earn any sort of reputation. So yeah, I can ask for more, given how important it is to beat the competitors. But this buck sustaining that and have been maintaining that edge is the important thing.

Speaker 1

Okay, so you found that you're in a position where you could start your own fund. Fantastic, and of all the markets in the world, you chose possibly the most unpopular one there is and still is. I would likely I keep looking at the numbers and thinking this will come back. People are going to become interested in this again, It's going to happen. But even the most recent numbers, the calistone numbers that you're talking about, So where money

is flowing to. We've seen one of the biggest movements out of UK stocks in record in January and hopefully that will have turned around a little in February March. But it hasn't become any more popular in the last five years. But this is the market that you chose.

Speaker 2

Yes, the causality is probably the other way. I used to invest in everything since I was fifteen. Then I specialize in twenty twelve and UK only because I get the culture of a very fortunate accounting background. I can get in front of anyone in terms of network, So it's an area where you can really build an area of specialism, and part of my philosophy is I spend as much time analyzing shit sareholders as I do companies. So my specialism is I understand the flows and a

makeup of a shareholder base very very well. And I'm buying off to stress sellers and selling to greedy buyers, and I almost don't need to know about the company to make money. I do because it's a safety thing and that's actually the core of what I find interesting and so it's a product of history why I specialize in the UK and just quickly touched on the UK. You know, there's more ten bagglers in the UK than

there's a percentage market cap than in the US. The distribution of curve, the flatness of the curve means you've got a lot of high quality, amazingly rated, great businesses, you know, experience games works, and then you've got a lot of dogs to make that work. The net result is you have a pedestrian, frankly boring market that does four to six percent, but the tails, you know, it's fantastic.

It's a stock picker's paradise. Which is the weird dichotomy of this situation that when the discounters and closes, you are articulated earlier.

Speaker 1

I know that you are both long and short and will come to short later. But what kind of companies are looking for you? Mainly large caps, small medium cap I'm guessing down the bottom end of the market cap spectrum.

Speaker 2

We go where the value is, where the biggest opportunity is. So we have large caps, we have medium and small today with a bias and medium because of the high quality business of dominant positions. I imaginedent teams sent out in a big chunk, and still sometimes we found ERUs. You've been doing a lot recently on investment trusts. We've got two investment trust trades on that disappear now. So

we just move where the biggest gap is. Small cap is currently still I think primed to you talk about turning. Small cap does turn. That's the best returning asset class in the world. If it doesn't, then we won't do a big proportion of it. There's some great large cap businesses, you know, global businesses on the UK discount. We'll do them as well, so you know, we paid less for something and then we trade the catalyst and we'll move

wherever the value is. That's why we call the fund the navigator and Okay.

Speaker 1

So many questions I want to didn't we start Let's go back to the first thing you said about it recently getting into doing vestment trust and you're right, listener, the very interested investment trust, and so we what what are the two that you've brought into.

Speaker 2

One the other one is Amadeo, which is an airline craft fleecing company. So this nearly went bust and COVID just for reasons. You can imagine the two clients. One was very safe and the other one was actually in bankruptcy, but then that got bailed out, so then the covenants became good. We got interested in the asset class because you're trading at a eighty sixty percent discount and the

cash flows are good. The catalyst there was the board and governments and the other shareholders Metage and Elliott are incredibly smart investors. And that discount has closed and you've we were collecting a twenty two percent dividend, it's now down to thirteen and they've been doing terrific buybacks. So it's a pretty great assets story, good managed governance, change and a wind down of the business over eight years that will hopefully double our money okay.

Speaker 1

That was an example of looking at the other shareholders the business to find the catalyst for the value to be released. Yes, yeah, okay. And then the next thing you said was about large caps and the global UK discount, and it's interesting, you know, the idea that the UK has a discount is not generally accepted. Everyone refers to it. What do you think that discount comes from.

Speaker 2

It's a natural oscillation of markets, of perception of reality. That's how prices work and story. So the UK out of two thousand and eight twos and I actually came up pretty good relatively speaking. And from twenty eleven to twenty fourteen the UK he was doing incredibly well. You have to ignore my Eco because it's been absolutely fantastic in India and China. Those are the outlies if you

were Jim Rodgers picking Macro. But the the Brexit haze, as I should to be kindly called it, essentially was a middle finger to the rest of the world, and that perception caused money to essentially start flighting. And then you had a Woodford scandal which would have hurt people having a go cavid and so it's just a general you know, the natural buyers of UK equities has been

declining and pension funds don't buy it. So the retail market in the UK's are lower than in terms of active buying as a percentage is lower than other countries. So you have to ask if the liquidities are not there, and then the companies have perception of lack of liquidity and then they don't ipo. It then starts self fulfilling. So we're in this self fulfilling, self harmed situation. At

the moment, the companies are amazing. Some of the companies are still amazing, and it just means you have a better opportunity to get and it will turn because things always change. We just don't know when.

Speaker 1

Aw where you still when?

Speaker 2

Yeah?

Speaker 1

What are you holding?

Speaker 2

In the large caps, we've got hiscocks phrases these probably more than the mid cap ones. We recently come out of a viva. We've got Burbery, Okay, took us through that. Burbery went from an embarrassing stock last year to hold to having a change of management. And that's interesting. So then you look at the luxury market and well, actually

that's growing and globalization is going to get bigger. It doesn't feel like it but there's more people and wealth's going up, and there's more millionaires every day than there's the day before. Status and security. They don't sell clothes, they're selling status and that only goes up with globalization. So the setup is great. The best luxury goods ban's obviously in Europe, but I don't trade that, so Birbury happens to be the highest luxury factor company in the

UK for two one hundred. I can't buy Mold because it's too small than there's a shareholder problem. So the setups are very very interesting. New management team, great tailwind asset. Then you're saying, well, they need to make money, and what's the normal basis for their cash flow, what does the business valuation look like, and all the fundamentals and all of that, and you get to about a ten or twelve billion valuation and the market cap I think was two and a half or three, which is quite

a big gap. So then you need the setup to realizing that value, which is essentially what we're trading. It's the time value of money because this could take five or eight years to do two three hundred percent and the stretching might be wrong, and you have to recycle it once or twice. I've been watching Birbray for fifteen years and this is the only time I've ever been able to buy it, that trench coat in that brand.

It's been arounded a long time. And if you can make me for thirty quid a scarf and select for one thousand pounds, that's a very high quality business.

Speaker 1

Yeah, we do all like to do that. So this is the way you look at it on your website. When you look at your process, it's value, the equity acquired at the acquired a discount, which is something that you know everybody wants to do. But then the difficult bit is finding the catalyst. So what was the catalyst here? The change of management or a change in the shareholder structure.

Speaker 2

So when I get in, I want to know who I'm going to sell it to. Birbury's my new games workshop. So when it's toasted the town and it's winning awards and all, and they're paying back the normal progressive dipogrant, we will exit because then the normal buyers are back in. If you think about the register, you want to have a proportion of blackwork x X and if the register is close to what the normal register should look like

it can't move very much. If the register is a long way and they deliver, then you the share price can move along towards it. It's a pretty much turnaround, classic turnaround story. And so you then come out at the back of that. You need two or three good years of numbers going up, and then the greed comes back in, and then you exit and you get the multiple expansion and the growth.

Speaker 1

In earnings, and you're happy to come out a little before the top. Leave it for everyone else.

Speaker 2

I would love to be able to time tops and bottoms perfectly. I've never figured a way to do that without activism.

Speaker 1

Without activism, so that I mean, it's interesting because you're that's not something that you're going to be able to do. So when you join, when you join the shareholder register of a company, you may be joining one where mcdike take their investment Cruss. We've just been talking about where you might have Elliot, etcetera. On the share register, but they're the activists. You might come in behind them, but not necessarily of a science to be activist, you're I.

Speaker 2

Think people prefer the quality of argument as opposed to strong arguing as long as you get past one or three percent, if there's an activist involved and it's important. In Burby's case, it's not that important. I'll give you a live examples. I'm looking at BP now, I'm not trading it. I don't think it's good enough. But you've got an activist in there. The CEO will get fired and maybe the Roles Royce CEO will come along and take over the BP roll. He's literally at the top.

Can't go any bed at rolls Royce. He must not take over a BP, which is actually what he wants to do. That becomes very interesting because BP can be tidied up and double in value without too much effort and shouldn't be ashamed of what it is. That setup is right there and looking that's the stuff that we look up and we just we wait for these things to become real where they can hit enough trade ticks. That wouldn't happen without the activist involving BP being strong

enough to basically get the board to do that. And I probably won't. It probably won't. Just I'm giving it you know.

Speaker 1

Won't happen. Yes, So that's that's an examp something that you would look at and you recognize the value, recognize the discount, but aren't convinced that there will be a catalyst in reasonable timescale.

Speaker 2

Yeah, there's hundreds of these and you just watch them. For me, it's like gardening. So the shorting is the weeds, the oaks, things that make money, and then it's the change of weather and what's flowering and what's not, and just how do you spend your time on the day. It's about a time. You have to swing at everything you've put to use your time effectively. And you know, if I hold Burberry, there's no point me looking at

too many other retailers. I'll get more value go looking at some pharmaceutical businesses or something.

Speaker 1

Yeah, so there aren't very many of you. I mean you're the only investment managers like analyst at the company, right, So how many how many storms can you look at?

Speaker 2

I don't know if we'll no. My co founder was an ex head of extity research that an investment bank. We use four different outsourced research company. We use to referencing companies, we use a background check company. We have a quant outsourced product model. So it's a full offering. I don't our team and research depth. I hope is an inch wide and a mile deep.

Speaker 1

Do you worry about the operating environment in the UK in general? Awful lot of smaller companies in particular are going to have increasing troubles operating in a high tax, at high cost of employment, high regulation economy, and that doesn't look like it's going to turn around at any time soon, which may limit the universe in which you can invest.

Speaker 2

Am I concerned? I guess I'm a personal level. It's a bit disheartening. But then I take you know, do you want to be Singapore and Dubai or do you want to be Switzerland and Norway? And both of those, you know, ones heavily regulated, high tax, and the others aren't. And there's what you want to do is find a

place in society that works. So I think I was very proud of the UK when I worked in London because there was a globalization hotbed between great art and media and business and I'm so close largest city in Europe. It was like combining the East and West, the time zone in the immigration and accept It's felt really good to me. I really enjoyed that narrative as the UK, you know, grown up. It was a nice place to be where I've kind of become a bit upset. I

don't want to move into politics. Is that's kind of less feels less now and we've sort of lost a bit of the golden goose. If I'm interpreting what you're saying, and you know, I go abroad a lot and I hear oh UK's instructural decline. It's not very nice. It's one on the numbers. But my life would be easier if more great companies listed Quantum, Cambridge Quantum and we

lost armholdings to America and things. So I'd love to be part of the next revolution and the great companies of the future and be able to have that story over the next ten twenty years. Let's all find a way. And it's been talking about. This is all very marginal from an investment perspective. It makes no difference.

Speaker 1

Only must make a difference to profit to earnings. If employment costs go up and if taxes go.

Speaker 2

Up, oh yeah, But if it's priced in or if I'm shorting it, then I'll make money on that side. If the multiple goes from you might you all share multiple stays fifteen If the market multiple taxes go up to your point should actually be ten. Then I'll price everything off ten. So you know, if we have a dot com boom, then I can do fifty to one hundred percent a year. If we have an income driven five percent market, then I might be able to do

fifteen percent per year. So the opportunity to deliver and the dispersion definitely changes, and I can control that. Would I like a crazy market, I think not every year. A stable one makes my job frankly easier. It means I can keep up and hopefully develop ahead of everybody.

Speaker 1

Let's talk about shorting, so presumably that's that works in exactly the opposite way. Find something that's overvalued and wait for a catalysts and then short.

Speaker 2

Yeah, preferably zero. So we do fads, failures, and frauds. The frauds are the sexy fun one. Our big win was Wan Disco. We discovered that billion pound forward. We've got a couple of others or seven others today that we've identified these criminal enterprises. I feel a bit like man.

I like going after them. We don't do activism, we don't make them public apart from our investors, and we just take the money off the table and typically we wait for them to run out of money, to not be too clever with it.

Speaker 1

Hang on, does this mean that you are not going to tell me what your criminal enterprises are.

Speaker 2

I can tell you past case studies, but I will be shot by my CEO and compliance department. If you're an investor and you come in, I will tell you.

Speaker 1

Only where you can find out what's the minimum investment? Why do our listeners have to pay to hear the stuff?

Speaker 2

Fifty? We put out fifty rather than the traditional million pounds. We wanted to be big enough but not be completely impossible for people to pretty much invite only on the platforms that might pass. Some money's in it via a j bell and we can go direct and it's a non shore fund as opposed to offshore. We take many regulation boxes we were physically able to.

Speaker 1

We talked earlier about large caps and the long you held there, but our listeners are really interested in smaller companies. Have you bought any new small company positions recently? Small On mid.

Speaker 2

Last month we purchased Kistos. This is actually our smallest position on the crity wisely, it's only one hundred million market cap, which is on the CUSP of what I can physically buy, tell us about it. So Kistos is a well and gas company. What's interesting is I think they're worth three hundred and fifty million and the market was one hundred. So I did some work, happened to know the management team for a decent time. Very savvy

op operators own twenty the business. They forty two bagged the previous similar art incarnation on the previous company called rock Rose. The old shareholders and here have ridden this share price down from six quid to a quid. The shareholder rotation told me that it was near the end

the fundamentals of the business. It's going to double its production this year, its profits are going to not quite a double, but get to one hundred million free cash flow, which is the value of the market cap of the company,

and then the cat lists are getting paid. Is the reserves they have for the worlds that they're plugging into will also they regrade them to basically how probable they're going to get them out, but they put them into the best bucket, which means they can double their cash flow between twenty seven and twenty thirty, which hopefully the market will value in some way and so we should double our money.

Speaker 1

If that's the case, what's your average holding period? How long do you give things to come to fruition.

Speaker 2

It's all different, but to averages three years, so it's further enough away that it's too far for and listener once you know, yea, at the beginning of the year, everything's in years, and I'm sure you feel this, you know, eighteen months is the furthest the brain kind of works. Three years for us kind of is enough for perceptions of reality to change and new magical things to happen, So that works very well. Ten years it is just too long for my tension span to make money out

of the catalyst. And if you're wrong, you're holding something for too long.

Speaker 1

Then, but it can also happen very quickly. And one of the things that we have been talking about on the pod recently is the extent to which it's now possible to have much higher turnover than you used to. So, you know, even five ten years ago, the general idea was that you should trade as little as possible because those expenses agent to your performance. But now that it is really so cheap to trade, that's not really a

thing anymore. And maybe there is a case for much higher levels of turnover inside active funds, and so instead of looking at that as a negative, now we should start looking at as a positive.

Speaker 2

It just depends on the edge you're trading, what value you're trying to capture. What's your edge? If you're I will use into training because there are a great manager that's having a difficult time, but his trading period is very long and his edge has to work on that because in your eighty percent of a return in a year is a rating return. If you're trading incremental growth of compounding of profit, you need to give it five ten years become a significant portion of the shareholder return.

Is this impossible to do any the way? If you're a multi strat, their long term for them is a week and they're very good at upgrading on downgraded earnings into news reports every day and that's what they do, so it makes sense for them to have extreme extreme turnover.

Speaker 1

And Alex, have we've got any gold miners in there?

Speaker 2

Are? We used to doing sentiment which was a Egyptian guide gold miner that got taken over four months ago, which was actually pretty good timing on reflection, so I'd probably be selling it now a new gold high.

Speaker 1

Speed selling gold miners buying them at this point, Yes.

Speaker 2

I'm short to gold miner. Now we're shut. AI were short copper and gold mining, anything that's really popular, we're probably short.

Speaker 1

So Alex. When I look at gold, which I've been keen on for years, I mean decades actually, at this point tally embarrassingly, it looks like the rest of the media has suddenly discovered gold as a thing. Central banks are suddenly replacing their treasuries with gold, etc. But when you look at the investment situation, retail investors, particularly in the US haven't really moved into golden Institutional investors certainly haven't. You're just not seeing those big flows in to the

ETFs beginning, but not really there. So it doesn't look to me like gold is suddenly super popular. It feels like it's more at the beginning than the end.

Speaker 2

I think it's a fair observation. So i'm gold physically personally, because you know, it's a bet on government's collapse every hundred years. I think gold probably close should be five or ten thousand pounds if you look at the what it brings, and it's been replaced by perceptions of other

safe assets and other extremes. Bitcoin. Where we are with it is it's an enduring asset that that's great, but it doesn't do very much apart from protect and over the last given the last five years, you would have thought there would be a lot more protection going on and it hasn't really been that bashion of safety, and then we'd have the inflation boom. So you know, there's definitely an argument to have it as a balanced portfolio, and it would be strange not to particularly a family office.

In terms of trading it, we just look at the company, so you know, if the company's got a catalyst and they're overvalued on it or they're undervalued, then great. In terms of the commodity price, we can just hedge it out, so I actually don't need to worry about the price. We are actually shorter gold mine today, which kind of sort of makes sense because they're currently in the high

part of the cycle. The ball case I've just given you in gold in general that has then taken multiple expansion and the gold prices their outputs aren't going to go up and if anything, they've got some problems. So really really interesting situation. I suspect our spilly looking at it in ten years times. It's one that's worth spending some time on. It's one of the easier assets to keep a track of.

Speaker 1

Alex. I'm just going to guess here, but are you holding bitcoin too?

Speaker 2

No, I wouldn't hold bitcoin.

Speaker 1

You wouldn't.

Speaker 2

It's not a listen on the UK stock market and it's a massive No.

Speaker 1

I meant personally you said you hold gold. You said you hold gold personally, it is Bitcoin is something that you would hold personally.

Speaker 2

So I did buy it in twenty twelve, and I did buy a house with the money. So I'm probably a bit of a hypocrite here, but I did it knowing that it was worthless and it was a bit of fun. It's a fascinating example of I spent every month. I used to buy one thousand pounds and whatever from trainers and if her can find invest in it, I used to put a thousand pounds in it to take everything. It's a good way to find new things. If I've heard about it, probably a bit late. It's a young

person thing early if it's an old person thing. And so it's a fascinating way to plug in and pay attention to the world, and bitcoin is a fantastic It's putably a bit deep here, but example of how story can be the entire valuation of something. It's not prices of perception of reality, and story can have the and religion have infinite value.

Speaker 1

Okay, so bitcoin is all story, but that doesn't make it not valid.

Speaker 2

That's a much quicker, more particularly worth of putting it.

Speaker 1

Let's just talk a little about the difficulties of investing like this, because, as you said earlier, it makes you feel a bit silly a lot of the time. It makes you feel unpopular, makes you feel like you're not with the crowd. And here you are sitting in what I think and I hope you think as well as once in a gener origin an opportunity to buy into a rather amazing market at a very low price. But nonetheless, no one has agreed with you for years. It's tough.

So a lot of being a good fan manager is really about being able to sort of weather that emotional difficulty, isn't it.

Speaker 2

I totally agree, and it's something that it took me a long time to fully appreciate. Part of the reason why Ed and I own the business is to defend against that. Partly when I live in Cornwall, it's probably overdoing it, but it is to manage the lifestyle and fitness. Like an athlete, You've got to look after your brain. There's only so many decisions you need to make as a decision based business. Those decisions need to be very good. There aren't many of them that need to be very good.

You need to be in the best headspace possible to do that, and to defend yourself from because you're going to be wrong a lot and ask you and contrain the way I do things. Actually I'm wrong most of the time in terms of going to a party, so that that can't get you and make you a negative person. Triumph for the optimist. So I've set it up in a way to protect to myself and I think that's

to apply in different ways for different personalities. And really it comes down to is the performance and the game more important to you? Is it making money and looking clever and safe more important? And I think most people will be risk averse and should go for the second. To do the first one is kind of not worth it, like the return on headache in any business, And so there's something either wrong with you or you've got a point to prove.

Speaker 1

You make it sound really quite hard.

Speaker 2

The big change for me here is I never used to speak to the investors, so it was really obvious, just make money, do the best trades. Right now I have investors. I don't want to let people down. I talk to very very clever people who give me opinions that I have to try and.

Speaker 1

Ignore, and then you have to explain yourself to them when things go wrong.

Speaker 2

That's hard, Oh do we do. We're very transparent to the degree that we can. Actually, one of my best friends is despite us making loads of money, he's flat because every time the market goes up he buys more and every time it goes down herself, and it's you know, it might change our relationship. And I've actually not let a lot of my friends come in for this very reason and managing other people as well. You know, I come in the morning and I talked about Birbury earlier.

I started buying Bibery at fifteen quid. I was buying it for a year and doubled it at seven quid. Fortunately, but along the way emotionally taking people on you that journey, you don't realize it until you have to do it. It's very on reflection, it's easy, but at the time it's incredibly hard. You really are running into a by I run into a burning building and then buy the lands to redevelop it the next day in effect. But telling someone whore running into a burning building is not

that attractive to most people. Even so, But if you're going to change the world, and do you think special hard and it's got to be hard, you're so glad you did that. Yes, life dreaming, I'm very very lucky. And there's are so much more that we want to do, so so much more.

Speaker 1

But let me ask you one last question. And you didn't have time for bread for this, so if you haven't got an answer, it's all good. But are you reading anything at the moment that you would recommend to our listeners.

Speaker 2

Thinking in Bets is what I'm reading right now on my table. That's very good. It's it's an ex actually world series poker player lady who then started doing touring and speaking to fund managers and CEOs about making a good decision and the outcome. We're actually unrelated. So you make a decision and the outcomes bad, you feel like you've done something wrong. It's called resulting. Making a decision is the important part, and that's the process you want

to work on. The outcome of probabilities is a separate point. But emotionally it's very hard because you focus on the outcome whenever you talk about a case study, not the quality of the decision. And it sort of reinforces poker players get this, and that's quite an interesting reinforcement idea.

You want good quality idea, good quality decision and positive or you know, I like out If you have a bad quality idea and you get a positive result, actually, that can be a very dangerous situation because you then might try and repeat it.

Speaker 1

Yeah, okay, that sounds great. I haven't read that. I will get that, and I suspect a lot of the listeners well as well. Alex, thanks very much for coming up.

Speaker 2

It's been a real pleasure. I really enjoyed it. Thank you for the good questions, and I hopefully you'll meet you and call more next time.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that would be great. That would be great, but not at the Seale Sankstuary. Thanks for listening for this week's Maren Talks Money. If you like us, show, rate, review, and subscribe. Wherever you listen to podcasts, I keep sending questions or comments to Merron Money at Bloomberg dot net. You can also follow me and John on Twitter or x. I'm at marinas W and John is John Underscore STEPIC.

This episode was hosted by Me Maren's Sunset webs, produced by Summersidi and Moses and our executive producers Brendan Francis, Newnan production supportant sound designed by Blake Maple's and special thanks of course to Alex Wood

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