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Hello, it's Maren Sums. That were Pierre. We have got a great episode for you this week. We're talking about aging, one of the opportunities and challenges of longer lives in the twenty first century. Economists and author Andrew Scott is with us to talk about his book The Longevity Imperative,
building a better society for healthier, longer lives. So we sort of stick around for that bit, but first, as always, senior reporter and author of the Money Distolveed newsletter, John Steppeck is with me.
John, ma'am.
You know we're going to talk about other aging stuff now, about older people and how things are going to work with him financially, because this week has been all about the state pension and Richie Stunac's unbelievably ridiculous and stupid nonsense about putting in place what he calls a triple plus lock on the Who don't know all that, I
suspect everybody does. The UK pension, which is not not tiny, comes with what we call a triple lock, whereby it goes up every year by the higher of a completely random number two and a half percent average wages or inflation right, and richards Nik is suggesting adding to that what he calls a plus, which is that the personal allowance, your income tax personal allowance will never be lower than the state pension, so you will therefore never be taxed
on your state pension, unless, of course, you are already taxed on your state pension because you don't have an income tax allowance because you earn over one hundred thousand pounds or one hundred and twenty five, where it's completely tapered away that allowance. See, I'm already irritated. I've worked myself up into a frenzy of fury, and I haven't even let you speak yet, John, Why is this a
completely absurd idea? Not politically, by the way, because it's an excellent political idea giving money away to pension It gets you votes lovely. Why they bother at this point, I don't know. But why is it a an appalling financial idea?
I mean to be clear that this is a personal allow One of the reasons a bad idea is because this personal allowance is only for pensioners. So like my personal allowance won't be going up and the other will yours. It's only for the people getting the state pension. So for a start, you mightage to get rid of one of the few pieces of tax simplification that we've actually seen over the last fourteen or so years, which was the kind of harmonization of the personal allowance. So that's
one reason is bad. The other reason is bad is because we we already can't afford this, and you're adding. And not only is it you know, it's more expense for related to the state pension, but it's also because of all of these lockings that we're doing, a it's always going to rise in real terms, so it's always going to be bigger than our basically can't inflate this
debt away. And on top of that, it's also uncertain, so you can have a rough idea of what liability you're committing to, but if inflation spikes, as it has done obviously in the last kind of couple of years, then that liability rockets. So this is just it is. I mean, it's so cynical in terms of being a purely political move, and a lot of it seems to
be in response actually to well the last budget. So Jeremy Hunt, National insurance contributions for employees, and obviously National Insurance is a tax that isn't paid by pensioners because it's a tax on people who work, or so people of working age. And the reaction from me, I cannot imagine that this is the majority of pensioners. But the reaction from a kind of mouthy pro pensioner lobby group was to be like, oh my god, you're terrible, this is awful. How dare you know? You're given a tax
cut to other people. But this was not a.
Tax rise for pension. It was an everything stays the same for pensions, but working people while they're really paying a lot of times. Now, let's try and ease it
up a little. And along the way, I mean, you and I had this conversation, we kind of hope that what it was was a glide path to getting rid of NI altogether, because it's both dishonest and ridiculous and complicated and having effectively having two income taxes inside a tax system where we do not hypothecate which good thing, by the way, is absurd, absurd, So getting rid of NI good thing. Pension is complaining about getting rid of NI bad thing.
Fah yeah.
Yeah.
And also I think we're I feigned, I'm not completely politically naive, but we are. We've gone well beyond the point for many years now where politicians just seemply react on a headline to headline basis. I mean, the other reason that sus souikes pulling this out of the heart is because she was I mean, I don't even know why he was on Loose Women. Frankly, for anyone who doesn't know, this is some tea.
John John's absolutely desperate to get on it. So question time, he must be on loose Women, right John, That's what That's what the audience is.
I mean, that's that's true. That's a good point. Maybe that is why they go on. But a Janet Street Porters, who I'm sure everyone remembers a kind of like music journalist, went back in the day. So I said to him,
you know, why do you hate pensioners? And you know, I mean my immediate thought, and the thought of anyone who actually knows anything about the financial system, would have been, what on earth are you talking about the one group of people who are in no position to complain after fourteen years of Tory misrule, if you want to put it that way, pensioners. They've they've done so much better than and aggregate than any other section of the population.
So I can sort of see why he must have been panicking because he was thinking, oh my god, it's like, you know, I used to forego one budget without throwing them a freebie, and suddenly you know, I'm the that lords them. So you know, but I think this kind of like kne Jet policy. Is it posted tourning around and presenting some facts to people, you know, instage Just Piney can see, well, okay, we're going to make sure you never have to pay tax on this and that.
What's the next thing that's gonna what?
Just don't ever now, Just be just to be fair, John and I aren't that far off being pensioned as ourselves. You know, this will come one day and then you'll hear a full on turnaround from us, full on turnaround. We'll be wanting those tax breaks up. So we want that state pension to be linked to everything under the sun, et cetera, et cetera. None of those things are going
to happen. And it's very likely that once we get a new labor government and that they have that wonderful six months when they can actually do stuff if they are brave enough. If they are brave enough, it may be that they do look at the state pension, possibly in the pension system as a whole, and say, hang on a dick, we really need to make some changes here. This is so expensive. You know, the state pension is already of a five percent of GDP eleven point three
percent of state spending. I've got that number in frontally because both John and I have written about it this week, because that's how cross it makes it. So you can find a column from that on me and money, just not from John. But change is coming, right, I mean, either we see the triple lock dumped somehow, we see the triple lock abandoned, one element taken out right, or we see big changes to the way tax relief on
pensions works. Or I was thinking about this the other day, and I was thinking, and I mentioned this in the column. I'm waiting for some pushback on it. Entirely possible. What would happen if the state pension was abolished altogether? And if I know, I know, I know. But let's say that auto enrollment picks up, so there's a higher levels of obligatory personal and state employer contributions. Right, maybe it stops being maybe it stops in voluntary. Maybe everybody has
to enroll, right, Maybe that happens. And at the same time, we do have a very effective pension credit system where if you if you come into your late sixties with no income of any kind whatsoever, you get put in the pension credit system. You get two hundred and one pounds a week, you get housing benefit, and you get all the other smaller payments that you get it in your later years that one way or another would hold body and sould together. So if you've got both those
systems running concurrently, do you need a state pension system? Now, don't get me wrong, I want a state pension system, But do you need it?
I mean, I think this is a really good question. It's a really tricky one. But I think that first if you and I can talk about this in terms that politicians would never dare but effectively, what your first acknowledging is that a state the state pensions are benefit rather than something that's sitting in a port with your name on it. And then you're saying, well, actually, look, if it's a benefit, then maybe that means that not
everyone needs to get it. And I thought the other interesting thing that you pointed out in your piece, and this actually maybe where sort of frozen tax thresholds come into play effectively. If you if you say you've got a pension that's somehow you know, paigey, you know, like in the region one hundred and thirty pounds a year,
your entire state pension is getting clawed back anyway. So there is a way, there is a point at which if you kind of you, if you actually had the goal to freeze the income tax threshold for the next thirty years, say, and suddenly the number of people who are you know, paying who are getting the personal allowance claw back climbs to the same numbers, say as are paying forty percent income tax today. It suddenly becomes a kind of mainstream thing rather than a very rich thing.
Then actually you could essentially remove this the pension by the bike door.
Not a recommendation, by the way, not a recommendation, right, John.
No, No, no, And I think even that would be hard to get a.
We with I suspect that'll be that'll be some means with some kind of means testing coming under a labor government would be my guess. I'm it's hard to imagine how they'll be able to get away with the whole idea of continuing to pay eleven to twelve pounds to the wealthy, the riches, the one percent, the five percent, whatever it is. So watch out for some means testing either way. Keevan Aisle State Pensions and do read John's
column on it. Do read my column on it. Welcome to Meren Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I'm Meren Sum's web. Here's my conversation with author Andrew J. Scott as we talk about his book The Longevity Imperative, building a better society for healthier, longer lives and, by the way, hopefully also richer lives. Andrew, Hello, thank you so much for joining us today.
Very kind, pleasure to be here, Maren, always good to talk.
Excellent. Now you and I are both very, very very young, so a lot of the things we're going to talk about today we don't have to worry about quite yet. So really, where we're thinking about our listeners who may be older than us.
Right, Yeah, Aging is a process, and everyone's getting older.
Aging is a process, not an event. That's one of your catchphrases, right.
Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, I'm interesting this topic of longevity, which I think is really about all of life rather than just the end of life.
Okay, all right, then we're talking about us too. I mean that the basis of the book is that we are all living longer. A lot of us are living longer, and we're living longer in a healthier way. So the stat that really jumps out is this one about how in nineteen ninety there are only ninety five thousand people who are over one hundred years old. Now it's around half a million and rising fast, and that's a huge change.
And then, of course we have the main driver behind increasing lifespans, which is not so much that people are living longer once they've passed sixty, is that they're not dying younger. So can we talk about that a bit first, in that I absolutely understand that these numbers, the average numbers a rising because people don't die in their first year or their second year or under five anymore. We've
pretty much nailed that. But is it really true that if you are just separate out that people live longer.
Yes, it is. I mean, you're certainly right that you know, the fantastic improvements, particularly the rich countries in reducing from mortality, have had a huge impact, but it isn't just life expectancy at birth. Basically, however old you are, we've seen an increase in the number of years you can expect to live ahead of you. It's certainly true that the biggest increases have come at birth, but what we're finding now is that, for instance, in Japan, Japanese women had
the highest life expectancy. A newborn girl in Japan has I think in ninety seven percent chance are making it to sixty. So what we're seeing now is nearly all the life expectency gains are happening from the age of seventy and above, so life expensive growth is slowing down. But now it's almost entirely about your chances are going beyond seventy into eighty and ninety. So that's the shift
that's happened. We've seen improvements at all ages, but now the increases are coming more and more at the older ages.
And what about the numbers that we've seen over the last couple of years that suggested in some countries life expectancy is actually falling, And I'm interested. You mentioned in Japan right, where it's well into the late eighties. Now the average woman can expect to live in Japan, right, But there's been a big change in diet and a big change in environment in Japan over the last forty
or so years. So how confident are we that someone born into modern Japan might have the same life chances in terms of health as someone born into Japan fifty sixty, seventy years ago.
What as an.
ECONOMISTYE is always told that the rules of forecasting is the first one, never give a number, The second is if you give a number, never give a date fat and the thirties never give numbers or dates. So forecasting is very difficult, particularly into the future. But now I
think we can be recently confident. I mean, I think what's stunning is over the last one hundred and fifty years, the best practice life expectancy, the country of the highest life expectancy has increased two or three years every decay. And I think that's likely to slow down, possibly to one or two, but I think it's still very likely. And one of the problems we've got is life expectancy. Intuitively, it seems a simple concept, but it's actually quite complicated.
And when I first started in this area, statisticians that I don't like life expectancy as a concept, and I thought, why not. It's a great thing, but I can see the challenges in particular the numbers you're referring to about declines. First of all, they're very much during COVID for most countries, which is understandable. Secondly, they tend to be focused on the US. We saw a small foreign in life expectancy outside of COVID, but that's totally due to this phenomena
of deaths of despair. It's midlife mortality. Your chance of living longer at sixty five continues to increase. And the big confusion in all of this is the blind numbers that you tend to read, which the government promotes. It's not really life expectancy. It's gonna sound a bit morbid. It's the average age of death. It basically assumes that
you live your entire life in that particular year. So if you're a newborn, you use the survival rate of a sixty year old today rather than the survival rate you're likely to face in sixty years time. So those tend to be very much an underestimate of life expectancy. That's why when you have a global pandemic, you see a fall in life expectancy, But as the pandemic goes away,
you see a return to growth. So I don't want to trivialize and say it's going to be automatic, but the vast majority of countries will continue to see gains in life expectancy. I suppect those at the top will see a slow down because, as I said earlier, sort of the scope to improve life expensive if you'm going from nought to sixty is pretty minimal now. So all
the gains are going to come later on. And yes, we have to worry about antibiotics resistance, Yes we have to worry about a whole host of things, but it's a pretty entrenched trend that I think, if you look at some of the innovations that are coming along in terms of medicine, is likely to continue.
Okes But there's this one to challenge I would make to that, which is that this is the first generation in which you could look at developed countries and say that going on half of the population is obese.
And no, I agree, But I think if you look at inequality. That's a really big challenge. One of the status of us in the book is eighty percent of how we age is down to behavior in the environment, which means that aging is incredibly malleable. So of course what happens the average may be different to what happens
in terms of those at the top end. But I still think we'll see more and more people living into older and older ages, and some of that may not be a good thing, because we do have a health system that tends to keep people alive rather than keep people healthy.
Okay, well, I'm going to ask you the question now that I should ask you, because otherwise people all write in and say why didn't you ask him? And you say, aging is very malleable. What are the things that we should all do outside taking powers of drugs to keep ourselves as younger as possible. I know the answer, but you know I'm asking you anyway. I'm hoping. I'm hoping there'll be something new like sit on the sofa and watch as much Telly as possible.
Yeah, no, that's exactly well, I'm sure those things are very good. This is where it gets very complicated, isn't it? Because everyone sort of wants the big haha moment. But yeah, it's all sort of pretty obvious stuff at the moment.
I mean, there's a lot of interesting stuff coming along in terms of drugs and biology, but it's all the stuff that everyone tells you and that you know, which is, don't eat too much, exercise a lot, keep moving, don't drink too much alcohols and toxin smoking is bad for you. Sleep is particularly important, A sense of purpose, a sense of engagement, friendships, and all the stuff that we know makes a good life. I think all this change is
a couple of things. The first is this is, as Peter Astio says in his book Outlive, there's some sort of breakthroughs in terms of what type of exercise to do and how to do this sort of the diet, the fasting stuff is very sort of trendy at the moment, the high intensity draining, et cetera. So there's some sort of innovations. But my own attitude and that is that that's about optimizing as opposed to just mainly doing the
right thing eighty percent of the time. And then the other thing that's really changed is your incentive to do it, because at the heart of my book is a statistic that just says, you know, you are now the majority of the young are now likely to become the older. Again, going back to the ons, they estimate the fifty center children born today will live into their nineties. And you know you are now likely to get old. But we fear getting old. So what do you do now to
age well? Because you can start to age better at eighty, it's a whole lot better to start when you're in thirty, forty to fifty or sixty.
And on the drug front, you mentioned way give you ezempic briefly earlier. But that seems to me to be, from what we understand so far, to be an antholute game changer in allowing people to age well. In that if it really can deal with a large part of the obesity problem, and if the benefits to the heart that we keep hearing about or turn out to be correct,
then that's something of a game change. It to people who have not yet aged well, and I'll say, oh, I don't know, fifty six or whatever thing it feels damn he said, I should, you know, take more exercise diet, except twenty years ago I did. GLP one is a drug that I've taken it.
But I think what's really interesting about them is there a signpost where we're going to be going in terms of treating health. In the book, I stress that we don't really have a health system at the moment. We have a system that treats disease. And I use that great quote by wh Jordan that health is something that medicine knows nothing about. And I was saying that to a cardiologist the other day and they said, no, no, health is just an incomplete diagnosis. Something will happen and then
we can do something about it. But we don't really know how to maintain health. But because we focus on disease, that's a really big problem with what's happening is we live our longer lives because we're now vulnerable to aging related diseases. And it's a bit of a dismal litany, but cardiovascular disease, dementia, diabetes, arthritis, cancer, all of these, the biggest risk factor is aging. The older, we get
them more like we are to get them. So if you sort of tackle one of those diseases, say cancer, you've still got the risk of all the other ones. So your health is still impaired. Your life expectancy is
still curtailed. But if we can sort of go upstream and focus on the aging process itself and age better, whatever that means in terms of biological aging, then you have a huge benefit downstream on multiple diseases, which is a huge benefit because then sure you're going to live longer, but crucially going to be healthier for longer because you
push back all these multi morbidities. Mate. That's where the gop one drugs are very interesting, because what they're saying is I'm not going to tackle a disease, I'm going to tackle a biomarker, in this case obesity. And obesity you can have an argument whether it's a disease or not, but I'd rather avoid that one. It's clearly an indicator of bad future health. And so if you can tackle that biomarker, you're going to have a benefit on multiple diseases.
And if you look at some of the sort of evidence coming through, it looks like it's good for cardiovasca, it could be good for kidney disease, it looks like it's good for diabetes, and that's where it's a real ganger, because that's a step towards preventative health, where I'm maintaining my health for longer and pushing back getting diseases, and that's really what we need to do.
Okay, let's talk a little bit about how you see it. The health service transforming from what we might call a misery service into a health service. Would how would that work? What would for example, the NHS do if it were to change the way it approaches things. What would it look like in your mind?
So clearly you still need something of an NHS which looks at diseases and intervenes, but you can see it on its knees at the moment, and how many resources we throw at it, it's not going to deal with a growing number of older people who are getting age related diseases. So we need to stop the number of older people who are getting aging related diseases, and that's by getting to age more healthily. And that's a shift
from intervention to prevention. So it could be things like GLP, but I think there's a whole host of shifts that
need to occur. So let's start first of all with public health, which of course is not everyone's favorite, but one of the reasons we're living longer lives in the twentieth century is public health made huge improvements in reducing infant mortality by raising awareness of what needs to be done with young children it was successful, and reducing them hound to be a drink and how we smoke, all
of which have had a benefit. And I think, you know, helping raise awareness, making it easier for people to do exercise, to eat healthily, for the environment to be cleaner, etc. It will be important and those social changes are in part inspired by public health. Then there's the health system itself which has to move towards prevention, and I think there there's going to be a shift out of hospitals,
probably to something like the community. I think it's really interesting during COVID that we managed to do a four scale mobilization of preventative health outside in the main the GP and the NHS through using community spaces. So there may be things like vaccination. Clearly, if you look at the trouble we've got is that there's loads of diseases
can get us. So in the book, I talk about how we can use huge advances in genetic screening, extraordinary developments in big data in AI, and say Andrew looking at your family history and your genetics. We think you're going to be particularly vulnerable to these diseases. We are going to concentrate on screening you for those. And you know, this is where I think the big revolution has to
come from. I'm a little bit nervous about AI in general, but I think big data in healthcare and has huge potential to identify what are most at risk at and then design interventions around it.
Okay, so you can say to people, this is what you're at risk of, and therefore this is how you should behave. But I'm not to hop on about obesity, but it's the classic one right where you can look at people who abes and we can say to them, this is what this puts you at risk at of, and this is how you should behave. But that doesn't work.
And this is why I'm interested in what you mean when you say turning it into a preventative service rather than a treatment service, because we have a long history of knowing that people don't change their behavior when they're given an alert about something that affects them specifically.
I agree, So I do think there is scope for education and for people to have agency. It's interesting how at least. Some of my readings of the work around these GLP one drugs, like wegov is as people whose weaight, they start to get a sense of agency and feel they can carry that over into other areas of what they do, which I think is interesting. So I don't want to totally rule out the ability to change your behavior, but I think you're right in general, it's going to
be easier to have it through a drug. And so you know, is vaccinations prevention or is it intervention? But I think we will see more and more vaccinations which can be useful in bringing down obesity, blood pressure, etc. So there will definitely be treatments. I think also we may well see a ship and I think this would be controversial, but I'm an economist. I think incentives are very important, and so there may even be some monetary
incentives to change your behavior. If you deliver on these things, then we'll give you some money or resources, because after all, the NHS will be a net saver. And I do think that's one of the really big shifts that's got to occur. So I think we need to really embed it within government a target for healthy life expectancy. I for instance, think the state pension age should be indexed
on some concept of healthy life expectancy. You cannot expect people to work for longer if their health is not sustainable, and I think we then have an incentive to invest in health outcomes rather than treating disease outcomes, and I think you need to then also embed that in the NHS to ensure that you get better outcomes. I also think we probably with an aging population, have to recognize that as we have more people aged fifty to let's say seventy, the health of those individuals is going to
be crucial for the economy. Because one of my hobby horses is to try and stress the governments that you can increase the state pension age. But in the UK only about a quarter of people are working at the current state pension age, so you're not really going to have a big effect. They aged round fifty, about eighty percent of Brits are working. By sixty five before the state pension age is down to about twenty five thirty percent.
So how do you stop that really big decline? And I think part of that is around preventative health, and I think at the moment we tend to assume the money we spend in the health system is just a cost. And it's nice to have better health, but it's just a cost. But increasing it with aging populations we're going to see actually, it's going to be crucial for economic growth. There's not much productivity growth in the UK at the
moment or many other rich countries. So most of GDP growth is employment growth, and most employment growth is workers aged over fifty. And the more we can keep workers aged over fifty working, the better it is for GDP.
I want to go back briefly to what you said about it incentives mattering. You for John and I say all the time on this podcast, incentives matter, for God's say, why can't people realize that incentives matter? Give people the right incentives, they'll do you want, Give them the wrong ones, they definitely won't. There have been some trials around health and incentive payments, haven't they, and they have work exactly.
I think, you know, it's hard to change thinking, and of course, wouldn't it be great if people didn't need a financial incentive to change their behavior. I also think, you know, if you think about the incentives to how we do change in the NHS, you know there's a couple of problems, and some of these are even more acute in America. There's that up to in Sinclair quote that it's very difficult to get someone to change their mind when their livehood depends upon them not shifting their
mind and not changing what they do. But I also think another challenge is that when you rise to the top of a profession with an existing skill set, it's very hard to then say, right, I'm going to give up on that because the way the future is something different.
And so when we have an nhsy's geared around intervention, it will take a very big mindset to shift towards prevention, which is why I suspect we have to do something outside of the NHS, which will lead to all sorts of financing issues, because how is the treasure you're going to finance prevention and intervention at the same time. But the economic return on investment for prevention is quite considerable.
The other thing we haven't really discussed myriory is that us as individuals we go along and say, hey, I not very well do something about it, But when it comes to prevention, we are going to have to be a lot more active ourself.
Yeah, that's the challenge. Right, Let's move on to how on earth we pay how do we finance a world when everyone's on a path to eighty five, ninety, possibly one hundred. Now, we have a system globally where you are educated for maybe eighteen years, maybe twenty two years, maybe twenty five years, maybe twenty eight years, whatever it is.
Increasingly more and more years you're educated for, and then you work for thirty or thirty five years, get your state pension and the pentin that you build up inside your your work environment, et cetera, all to enrollment we have today lovely, and then you hit hopefully sixty maybe sixty five, and you retire. Now, I know that you and academics and economists like you think that the best thing for us to do is to change the way we do that, to not have these kind of solid
blocks of time dedicated to education, work, retirement. But that's a difficult thing to persuade people, because when they've been working for thirty thirty five years, quite like to stop. So come the age when they and get their hands on their bension.
Yes, please, no, completely, there's a whole bunch of issues you raised there let's begin by you know, it's just a simple matter of arithmetic. If we're living for longer, we need more resources. We have to produce more resources ever our lifetime. And it may be AI is going to come charging to the rescue and give us all those resources so we don't have to you know, the problem solved, But if it doesn't, we have to be
more productive over our lifetime. So it's very hard to move away from the notion that we'll have to work for longer. And that's just an adding up constraint. Now, that doesn't mean that everyone has to work for as long as they feasibly can. I think we're going to see a great deal of variety in hytergeneity because of course, not everyone can have the same life expectancy. Not everyone can find it so easy to work. So we really have already I think seen retirement as a com concept
change phenomenally. It's no longer there's a single age where everyone comes to a hard stop at work. It's a continual process. Some people work for a long time, some people stop working before the current retirement age. Some people are working part time beforehand or part time afterwards. Some people unretired so I think we're seeing a great deal
of flexibility and variety. But you're quite right. My challenge is with governments who just set out to raise the state pension age, because I don't think that solves the problem at all. It solves a government problem, which is, oh, i'll pay less in pensions, but it does nothing to keep us productive for longer. And so my concept of the evergreen society is how do we stay healthy and productive for longer. Now, some of that is about preventative
health and just what we've talked about. There also be a need for lifelong learning and education. As you said, we're getting more and more education. I don't think it necessary has to be about going back to college. It could be something you learn on YouTube. You just got to keep updating your skills. But there's another challenge, which
is can you keep working in your job? So you know it's a convest The way I look at this is it's sort of you know you're going to want to carry on working if the gains are staying in work ex seed the costs of gain to work, and for many people, if you're ill and work is very physically challenging or very boring, you don't want to carry on working and totally you know, I get that, but of course there's an adding up constraints. So how do we create what I call age friendly jobs, which are
jobs that older people are able to do. Now I'm a university professor, that's pretty easy for me, and I've done some work on this and the number of age friendly jobs, jobs which are more flexible, provide moral autonomy and less physically demanding. Actually that's the work trend. More and more jobs are getting like that. But if you're working as a construction worker, if you're working in a
very physical activity, that's not an option. So I do think we've got to think about how we support people in shifting careers when they get to a point where they can no longer what they used to do. And we do this all sorts of ages when we have
active labor market policies. And you know, if you're a construction worker, you may not be able to carry on working in something physically, but there should be all sorts of skills that you have depending upon the person to shift into something you can carry on doing.
What like what like what I'm sorry to challenge you, but like what I keep Hearing this idea that people will what end a career working in Tesco's, which they loathed anyway, and somehow move on to some other sound part time, don't believe it, and I don't understand how you facilitate a world in which there is attractive work for people to do after they've spent thirty years doing unattractive work. If that attractive work existed, they've done it in the first place.
Well, well, let me just begin by saying I'm a no fan of just raising the state pension age. I think it should be indexed on not even average healthy life expectancy, but something lower down the distribution, because to get people who are in poor health and tired to carry on working is a terrible thing. So I absolutely agree with that. I also think there are ways that we can support people, and I think, give me give
an example. My father and law as America, used to be a truck driver and then they try only went to move and worked for a charity helping older people. And he's got great personal skills. It's not something that he requires a huge physical strength for, and so I think that's perfectly possible to do. I'm not saying you have to punish people to do it. I'm not saying that you have to push people into bad jobs, but I think there are skills that people doing physical and
manual jobs have got. They perhaps used to enjoy the camaraderie of physical work but no longer do. But they want to do something where they use their other skills. And I don't think that's about learning how to be a full stack developer in terms of software code. I completely agree on that. One of the problems with lifelong learning is that the people who did it later in life tend to be the people who did it earlier
in life. But I think there's other ways you can learn skills, including shifting from being a construction worker to perhaps helping out in a care home, which I think are perfectly feasible. And I think that, you know, I don't know for some people, I held hope that was a rewarding shift, But I agree with you. We can't have bad jobs. We don't want people condemned to do bad jobs.
It just always seems to me that when we talk about this kind of thing, we're really talking about the likes of you and me.
Well, this is why I sort of call it, you know, the sort of Sam Beckett theey of retirement, which is, you know, I can't go on, I must go on, a type of approach which is just dismal. So the point, you know, this book, The Longevity impairt says we underestimate the capacity of old people. We underest the capacity of eighty years. And that's a problem because we're living longer and we have to rise to the challenge to support those lives, to make sure that they're healthy, productive, and
engaged for all. And we sort of did that at early years, so there's no reason we shouldn't be able to do it at older years. But it does require a big rethink, and a big rethink it involves a lot more than just saying, hey, I'm just going to whack up the state pension age, because that does nothing to keep people healthy, productive, and engage for longer. That's
just a route to misery. So in some ways I completely agree, Mary, and I think your challenge is a good one, which is raising the state pension age easy for those people already working beyond the state pension age, but it's futile because the large majority of people can't and they need support and help. But we have education, health policies, and active market policies a younger age. Why don't we do it at older age because we underestimate the capacity of older people.
We could just leave old people alone or older people alone and work on the fertility rate. Yeah.
So, well, a couple of issues. So first of all, I think this is a big change when I talk about, oh, you know, it's going to be individuals. It can be government policies, it can be firms, social customs. And I'm certainly not trying to direct what people do. I think you need to give people support so they got choices now. In terms of raising the fertility rate, I just don't
think it's going to happen. I think it was hungry where if you have more than four kids, a woman doesn't pay income tax, which is a pretty big financial incentive.
Doesn't seem to I've done it for that, I've definitely.
In general, it doesn't seem to have much of a response. My big thing is not that we've got to make people work for longer, or you know, or anything of that form. The question is we got all these extra years, what do we do with them, and what do we do before then to support that longer life. And the simple story is, we've created a society where, you know, in the past, only a minority of people live to
be ninety. So we haven't built the institutions to support a longer life, which is why we say, oh, my goodness, look at this aging society. Probably I'm always struck by the reference to aging society. I don't know anyone goes, yeah, brilliant, We've got an aging society. In some ways, it's one of the greatest achievements of the twentieth century. Fewer infants lost in early life, fewer parents snatched away in midlife, more grandparents meeting their grandchildren. But we refer to it
as an aging society. And when it comes to AI and climate change, we talk in engaged way about how we adapt and adjust to make the most of this longer life. When it comes to age, anxiety would just say, oh, these old people, they can't work, they're real, they need a pension and they're a burden. That's a crazy situation when the majority of us can expect to become old. So how do we change? How are we aged?
Is there any are there any lessons we can learn from Japan who seem to be managing this aging economy very well. There was a little ahead of the rest of us on everything.
Yeah, I think there's something in that. So first of all, I always I trustingction between changes in the age structure and then changes and how long we live. And Japan has got a really aggressive, similar to China, change in his age structure in a way that the UK and
US don't. I mean, we are seeing a change in our age structure, but our fertility rate has fallen by less and more slowly, so we haven't got the same really dramatic change in age structure that Japan and China have got with their declining population, and we use immigration more. But yeah, I think China Japan is a good example. I think they've done well at instigating a sort of these age friendly jobs where there's options to work part time and flexibly as you get older, which I think
is a really good thing. You know, going back to our conversation about retirement, I think a point I want to try and make is that in the twentieth century, when we created that three stage life that you refer to, education, work and retirement, as we lived longer, we took more and more leisure after retirement. I think as we live longer now, we're going to take more and more leisure this side of retirement through part time work and possibly
even career breaks. But that's another topic. But Japan has done very well I think creating those flexible age for any jobs. It's also done a pretty good job on diet and health, but inequality in particular, I think is important.
Let's then talk about how we can make some of the things you're discussing, how it can translate into actual policy that can really help.
I want to step back a little bit here, because what my book says is that this is a really profound moment for humanity. Actually, and I'm always wearing a business called profess to talk about living through a time of unparallel change, because in general, I think that's nonsense. But when the first time ever in human history, the young can expect to live into their tenth decade, when global life expectancy is now over seventy global life expectancy,
that's a fundamental shift. We can now all expect to become old, and that is going to require some pretty deep seated changes that won't come through immediately. But just as the twentieth century saw us invent teenagers. We saw us invent retirement and pensioners. It invented the midlife crisis, invented the weekend. That's a whole mixture of government practice, social norms, all of which occurred over several decades that I think is a process that we will see as
we adapt to these longer lifes. So some of it it's going to take a long while. And I hope I sort of type define myself as a patient optimist, although the world is testing me sorely on the optimism these days. But you know, these changes do happen. But what can we do in the very very short term, And you know, I've already sort of touched on what I think the main ones urgently shifting to a system of preventative health. It's the only way to save our
health systems, the only way to safeguard our economy. And there are plenty of very simple, relatively cheap things we can do to keep us healthy for longer. And not only is that incredibly valuable because health is our most important ast the thing we value the most, it's also crucial for the economy. When you have a rise the fastest growing population is those aged over fifty. So absolutely a focus on preventive health. Some of that I think
we'll have to be done outside the NHS. That's about incentives. I think it's about a target for healthy life expectancy, because that's the key part of the Longevity Imperative book is we've got a system that's done really well in credding us to live for longer. We've slowed down the dying process. We haven't slowed down the aging process, and that is what we have to focus on because right now, these long lives, the gap at the end of life
between when we're healthier not is getting wider. We're getting more years and good health, but more years in bad health, and that has to be a number one priority. And nowhere is that a target right now. So a healthy life expendence is a target. How do you then increase the incentives to do that? I would say make the state pension ager function of healthy life expectancy. So then the Treasury have an incentive to say, you know what, I'm not just going to give you a big check
to spend on the NHS. I want you to deliver outcomes that actually boost the economy by keeping people in work and keeping them healthy. And that's not about pushing them beyond sixty five. I think that's an unfair bargain to ask of people. If you haven't got the skills, you haven't got the health and the opportunities, you should not be forced to work beyond that. So we've got to make sure we get those age fifty to sixty six sixty seven, which is the current state pensione age healthy,
fit and engage. That seems a very fair political bargain. So that would be some of the very concrete things that I would do.
Okay, And for the individual looking at their finances, how do you look at your finances over a career like this or a life like this?
Yeah, so of course that's at managing industry will just tell you to save more, which I don't actually think is the right.
So always save more, save more, exactly.
So you know, it's not an easy problem is they're trying to work out your finances because you need to know how long you could likely to live for, which is really uncertain and increasing. You've got to be able to guess how long you can work for. And one of the things I always warn people about is always I'm fine, and if I can make it to retirement age. But you know, let me go back to that scary statistic.
Eighty percent of people are working at fifty, only about thirty percent by sixty five, and most of those are not voluntary exits from the labor market. It's they get ill, they have to care for someone as ill, they deem not have the skills, updated skills, or there's just pure agism in the workplace. So you've got to know how long you live for, how long you can work for, how much money you need and you retire, and what the rate of return is in your earnings. There's no
simple solution to that. I think saving more possibly is the answer, but it all depends. As you said. You know, some people like the university professors, very happy to carry on working for longer. I suspect you may be in that situation as well, Marin, in which case, if you're going to work for longer, you can actually save less because if you keep your years of retirement fixed as they were before life expectancy increased, you've got a longer time to earn the money, so you can save less.
If you want to retire for longer, you've got to save more. But I think we're going to see a great deal of heterogeneity in how people respond to it. But the key in all of this, I think is it's not just a financial issue. It's very hard to avoid the conclusion that basically also have to invest in your human capital, because if you've got the health, if you've got the skills and the purpose, if your financial plans go awry, you can still earn some money to
bring them back on track again. And I think that's the really, really big change. The other thing I think we'll see as a new financial system, we need much more personalized finance. That three stage life where everyone had the same retirement age and the same needs doesn't work over this longer life where people will have very different aims, very different preferences, very different circumstances. I think we also need to see a much more joint thinking about health
and wealth. I think we'll see more and more life insurance companies saying, hey, I make money if you could live longer. How can I make that happen? Or there's all these new treatments coming along, our start to try and integrate those together. And then the other really big issue, which I think is not dealt with at the moment is the way I call living insurance. We saw life insurance develop in the eighteenth nineteenth century, which was you know,
if you die early, your family is protected. The problem we got now is not just increases an average life expectancy, but actually most people live longer than the average. The mode is above the average. You've only got about I think a three percent chance of dying at the average life expectancy. So you have a very high chance of living beyond your average life expectancy. And one thing is can you save enough to live to eighty eight eighty nine?
But how do you save enough if you're going to be living to one hundred and one hundred and five And I don't think you can save that much. And so we need, whether it's annuities or ton teens, we need new instruments that can help us ensure against that variation.
Well, I was going to say that just sounds like a late life annuity, which is something that is beginning to get popular, where people they buy an annuity when they hit a certain age and rather than buying it directly at sixty five or retirement ages, just doing the old days. Now you you know, you live off your pot for a while, and then when you hit a certain age and you're not entirely shure was going how long you might live after that, you buy an annuity to
keep yourself safe after that. I'm I'm not sure Tom teams are going to take take off again.
No, I think they're more part of max finance professors and novelist than people. But they are there, are lovely, They've got some advantages in them. So perhaps some sort of a hybrid between a tontine and a newity might work.
Oh, there's a column in that. All right, Andrew, last question here you are. Let's say we're getting getting towards the end. Yeah, we're quite old, and we're thinking to ourselves. I'm worried about inflation over the ten years, Whor I'm worried about all sorts of things over the cooming ten years. You have political difficulties, etc. And I want to buy one asset, one acid only that I think will protect me very well over those ten years. And I've only
got two choices. I've got gold or I've got bitcoin. What am I going to buy?
Well, I'll go for gold because I don't know if it depends on next Tuesday or Thursday in ten years time whether bitcoins are going to be high or low in price. It's just too volatile. So I'd go for gold because gold is this sort of sort of tangible commodity that we all think is valuable even though we don't really know why it is, whereas bitcoin and this an intangible commodity that I've got no idea what it's about. So I would go for gold personally.
Okay, brilliant, thank you very much. You do know and I'm sorry to have to tell you this that this will get you attacked on Twitter. John, What do you think about what Andrews says? I know that obviously you're ready, young, sin aneimous, remotely relevant to you.
But I know that you eat well, you.
Exercise, You've got good friendships, good relationships and nice community structuring excise. So you're probably going to live and tell you all what five.
You have to a lot of ten years for being born in Glasgow.
Yeah, you do, although you have left Glasgow, which may be helpful to you in that sense.
Obviously, I think this is a really interesting topic and the I think the one thing the conversation kind of very made very clear is that this affects everything, and an awful lot of the you know, the recommendations involve almost like restructure so many aspects of basically basically a
public sector because one thing I don't know. I was talking about wearables to my wife the other day, as you know, like you know, watches that can monitors your your health, and she has worked in the NHS in the past, and one of the points was that integrating the kind of data and the kind of warnings and the things that your Apple watch will give you with the actual service you can expect from the NHS is extremely difficult because you know, either people kind of getting
a wee warning from our Apple watch that maybe they should go and get an EK you know, an electro cardiograph because their heart had done something a bit funny in the night or whatever. But then you get the doctors getting frankly pissed off that people are kind of coming and requesting you know, these e cages even though actually a lot of time when you did one on them,
you actually did find something. So I think there's a there's like an infrastructure issue here more than a tech issue at this point for health.
Yeah, or is there a doctor's getting pissed off at persive perfectly reasonable requests issue.
Yeah, that's what I mean. It's yeah, if you've got an NHS, So if you've got a health system that's set up on the basis that there is a limited amount of paie to go around, then everyone that works in it is a gatekeeper. And unfortunately that's the nature
of a ration health service. I'm not saying that, you know, the US alternative is necessarily better, but you'll be doing that you look at how how we structure there's and also about the can over the kind of mentality I think of the health service as well.
Well. I think that's the key bit, isn't it.
I'm one of the things that Andrew talks about a lot is about how we call it a health service, but.
Of course it's not a health service at all.
It's a misery service, and illness service and disease treatment service is absolutely not a health service.
And we need to find a way to make.
What we call our health service do something about preventative health, about getting people to look after themselves better before they turn up at the NHS. But this is this is where I you know, where do come and slightly come into conflict with Andrew on this and on the event
that we talked about during the conversation. We talked about this idea that people should spread their working life out more thinly, that they should take more sobaut are girls and more breaks, that they should change career more often, all this kind.
Of thing, And these are all things that some people will do.
Some people will do, but an awful lot of people either won't or can't. And we know, for example, you know, you and I have talked quite a lot about the weight loss drugs and the impact that they have and how brilliant we think they are, notwithstanding side effects that may appear over the itst couple of decades. But you know, if diets worked, if this whole idea that you could eat less and move more exactly, if that worked and it was relatively straightforward.
Everyone would do it. Everyone would do it.
Right.
If that has worked, only one diet book would be required. But there are hundreds of thousands of diet bogs and millions bought every week, so we know it doesn't work. So we know that a preventative health service may only work for a very small percentage of people. Everyone else
needs drugs, And it's the same. It's the same with work, right, this idea that you can work in one thing for twenty years and another lifting for ten years, another thing for thirty or five years, whatever it is, and you can spread yourself.
Then and you can relearn, etc.
And we were talking I'm not sure doing the recording, but after recording at about the way that people do change careers in older age. And Andrew was talking about someone he knew he'd worked in construction initially and later gone on to care homework. And I was talking about this with some people later, and someone.
Said, you know, who would want to do that?
Who would want to spend thirty years working construction and then instead of just relaxing.
And resting for twenty years, go and work any care home. Why would that work for anybody?
It works for intellectuals, It works for people whose job is sitting in front of a computer writing fund stuff, and then they can maybe write a different kind of fun stuff later.
But does it really work for the majority of the population.
All the stuff sounds great, sounds very desirable, and then you think, I just don't see how we get from.
Here to that.
Yeah, And I mean I guess. Still, the problem is you can't I don't think you can really make prescriptive for this because, as you say, I mean, career changes sound attractive, but they're they're very expensive to do, you know. I mean the main reason for the kind the pay gap between the sexes is because women go and have children and then that kind of breaks up their career
and then recovering from that never happens. So the idea that you can go away and retrain for a year as a lawyer or something like that, I mean, I know that hams in the States a lot more, but again, you have to generally have the money behind you already, and it is a you know, a sacrifice, So it is something that most people really can't afford, even if they were motivated to do it.
And I suspect a lot of the ideas that you moved to lower status work, right. So you and you know, you've worked in a reallyatively high status job, maybe you've been in management or whatever it is, doing the main part of your career. Your earnings peak out at you normally in your mid forties, don't they, And then maybe you're retired from that career and then you go in to do something.
Less challenging. Let's intellectually challenging.
I suppose maybe you work in a shop, or you work on reception somewhere, whatever it is, you pick up a lower status job in a part time way in your late las. No, that's fine, But what if you were already working in one of those jobs. What if your actual job had being one of those jobs? Which, to be ver is most people right you work in a low status job for thirty years and then you're expected to work in another low status job. Or do we change the idea about what status at work is.
It's just it's more socially complicated, more culturally complicated than I think the academic world likes to think krama being unkind.
So I think one thing that we forget because we can think about life as being cyclical, and obviously it is cyclical in lots of ways, but we forget this is genuinely new. That haven't been this number of people getting old, living long enough to have a state pension or what we would consider to be a retirement. And it's happened very quickly. It's like literally in the last one hundred years. So I think none of us are
used to it. We're already seeing changes. There's a lot more acknowledgment of the fact that if and I mean this does largely relate to men, because there's been men that have been retiring from those kinds of jobs. But you get to sixty five, you go into the golf course, you die by the time you're seventy because of a mixture boredom, loss of state, is drinking too much, and also that kind of stubborn sense that you've worked for forty years, you're never ever picking up, you know, a tool,
or doing or having a boss ever again. And I think that the psychology has moved on from that. I think people acknowledge now that actually, whenever you retire, you still have to do stuff. You still have to have a routine. I guess what I'm saying is, I think we're all kind of grappling our way towards actually just
how you live better in retirement. And probably the thing that the state should focus on is making sure that we're as healthy as possible within that or that we have the ability to use the already existing technology that could help us to live longer, and just make sure that we've got access to it. In a in a pleasant way, as opposed to having a basically shout at someone in a GP surgery until they give you what you want.
Huh. That sometimes works, mind.
You, Oh no, it usually does work. But it's a shame that if you don't have someone advocating for you, or somebody to shout on your behalf, then you are in deep trouble. Is the many, many scandalous reports that have come out in the last couple of weeks alone have demonstrated and I'm not going to delve into that, but it's not being happy reading now.
What's the best thing we can do really is keep hoping for a massive productivity revolution that takes away a lot of the problems that we're discussing.
But there is one other thing I wanted to.
Pick up for we end is that we talk briefly when when Andrew and I are talking, we talk about what the individual can do to effectively ensure against their long life. Right, but a very rare occasion of ensuring against something brilliant, right, and he talks about he talks bad to some kind of living insurance and as I said to him on the thing, what we're really talking about is just a deferred annuity, and these haven't been around much in the UK that you can get them
in various places. And this is where you simply buy an annuity, but you buy one that doesn't start for quite a long time, so you have your pensions freedom. You can use the majority of your pension money in whichever way you would like, but you pre buy an annuity that kicks in at an age that you want to be insured from. So say eighty five or possibly even ninety whatever it is. You say to yourself, Christ, I lived in ninety I'm really going to be a
bit worried. So I buy this annuity that kicks in at ninety, eighty five, eighty seven, whatever it is, so that you know that should you live longer than expected, there's going to be a regular income coming in or sely that takes away from your part when you start your retirement.
But that's insurance for you.
So that's something that I think we should maybe look at a little further. You and I this whole deferred annuity industry.
Is it growing, Who does it, how does it work? What does it cost? Interesting?
Stuff that's fascinating. Actually, see I told.
You it was interesting stuff.
Are you making any changes to your lifestyle or your finances as a result of listening to Andrew speaking.
I see, do you know weird enough? I started exercising a lot more this year, so it was priorly Andrews speaking. But getting to that age where you do start to free up at this stuff and start doing things you should have started doing maybe twenty five years ago, but it's never too late.
So as you can start in your eighties.
I mean, I've got a dolt just so I got out of the house and I'm sure that happened.
And it's a weep part.
Thank girl.
Well, kind of an irritating one, to be honest, but you know, thanks for listening to this week's Marin Junks Money.
We'll be back next week.
In the meantime, If you like us, show, rate, review, and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, and keep sending your questions or your comments to Merin Money at Bloomberg dot net.
We will address them, we promise. This episode asserted by me.
Merrin Zumset Web is produced by Samasadi.
Additional editing by Moses and special thanks to Andrew J.
Scott and to John Steppick and just to remind you that you can follow us on Twitter. I am at meren sw and John is at John Underscore stepk
