🏉 NRL Analysis - A look at Finals Week 1

Better than the Lego, better than let Hoover.

Right a week one of the finals, Mate, we're going to talk about first which game.

Yeah, we're going to do Storm and the Sharks. So we've thought about, like, what are the strengths and weaknesses, what happens, what has to happen in these games to get the opposition on top. I think for the Storm to win, I think they need to put Nico Hines in a phone box. He needs to feel like he's playing a game of football in a confined space. There's already question marks whether they can deliver in a big game.

We said a few times about Nick it's I think in this game for the Sharks to do less.

Now what we saw early in the year when they beat Melbourne in Melbourne.

This go around to be is the fact that there was Blake, Brawley and Atkinson and the halves. Before that game. You're looking so Bradley playing a half beat. They're playing the Melton's now chance. But they just they were forced to do less, they were forced to simplify. Their power game took over and they looked a far bet of football side. When they've gotten in the finals before, They've played two sideways, they've played two floury, They've skimmed across

And that's the example because on the other side of the field for the Storm, I think if the Sharks that a win down to Amy Park, they need to stop their spine from running the football. Like if you think about a play the ball anywhere on the field. You've got Pappenhausen, Grant near the ruck, You've got Hues and Munster at any stage and every play the ball. These four guys could run the football. So if the

They get confidence from that.

So I think if the Sharks the win, they were shut down their spine running the balls.

It's always easy to get bias with what they called it recency bias.

Anyway, it doesn't matter.

It's not fun, but you know where all of a sudden you fall in love with the next player that comes along. But I was sitting there and I think himself, have I ever seen a half back with as good a running game as Jerome Hughes and like alf was rapid they have the line gap, but I don't know.

I don't think I have.

Well, I think it's the fact that he's got a combination and he uses the combos he has around him as support because he can go to Karto.

So then people start worrying about that. They went about Monster on the other side of the field.

Harry Grant has a bit of craft around so they're worried about that. And as soon as he feels like there's space is right foot back inside. And his performance on the weekend in that warming up against Brisbane was pretty impressive.

He might have just sealed the dally Am with that performance.

Absolutely, day football, day football, I think will suit the Sharks down there. Night football and Melbourne, you know better than anyone, is very very difficult to suit you blokes Downley.

What do you think. I think it's going to be a really tight game.

Yeah, I think it will be tight. I think Melbourne Storm get the job done. I think they're halves and probably about like Melbourne Storm. What do they need to improve in the last couple of years to go that extra mile? I think defensively they need to improve better for longer periods of time. But their best players need to play well at this time of year, and I think they are all play well, including Nelson as a solo owner. In that conversation, so Storm to get done huge.

Storm home by a fraction on the back of their spine. But an upset would not surprise me at all. After Sunday afternoon, one occasion, that's going to be the course stadium be massively rocking.

Fifty sixty thousand people hopefully for the Dogs to win. I think they need to attack the merely halves defensively. I think we'll have a look at some stuff Brooks. Cherry Evans can get caught out at different stages. He's save Farth going through inside shoulder on Brooks and he knows that the threat of Preston on that side of the field up against Brooks. They need to power through Brooks and make him make a lot of decisions. In the eighty minutes here again comes up too far past

It's been a couple of years now at DCE, and I like Kawa Tu struggling, and you're right, it's hard to believe in a Blakelood DC who is such a quality, experienced player and those the nuances of playmaking inside out and could obviously ud shapes company's way that he still does.

If I'm Matt Burton, the further I am away from the trial and I'm giving kick out early ball, I don't think Cherre Evens can handle the physicality of what kickout does. The closer I get to the line, I'm going to make Cherry Evans make that decision defensively. So give a big fire early ball once you get down there put a lot of decisions around Cherry Evans rodo coops.

This is a game of whoever dictates the style of the fight will probably win. Because you've got too big, you've got mismatches, you've got dogs who are who's forwards are smaller, lighter, more skillful bit of football IQ and the big, powerful, manly pack.

Yeah, the Dogs have been on the skids defensively the last couple of weeks, but I think the Cowboys just show the blueprint to the whole competition how to beat the dogs. The way that they played the Cowboys was powerful and short passes through their middle create ruxby retreating defense, and you go at them again with either a show and go or a short pass. So I don't think going around the dogs is the approach. It's about going

Can I ask you a question there, because you've been in the position that a number of those sides have been in in the fact that the Bulldogs will Whilst they didn't have a home semi final locked in, they had their final spot locked in to a certain extent, they were treading water.

And I'll send new blokes to it.

At the Melbourne Storm where you're six points clear, you know, eight points clear with three or four rounds, it's a difficult situation to find yourself in because look at the effort there defensively of Villi Army and also Bronson Cherry. That is that is nothing like what they've offered this year as far as effort is concerned.

Your hope that Sirealdo can turn it on and turn it back on. But also remember it's been a long year for the Dogs with that small pack working really hard in defense. I hope they've got a little bit of energy for this game because if they are on the back foot making soft tackles, it's going to create the rugsby that Cherry Evans.

Needs sensing an upset here, you know, thinking manly, no, no, sensing an upset on sensing bull Dogs hitting back on.

The skids too, just could a bit of a gael.

I think that what we just explained is exactly where this game sits. If Kickout can dominate Cherry Evans, they win. But if the mainly forward pack can dominate through the middle and generate quick play the balls, I think that's enough for Brooks and remember turbos back to back Dogs, he will be hard to handle.

If that's a retreating to.

Dogs that I make.

This are really fast, personal, fast game, keep the ball in play, try to fatigue that big pack.

Let's be honest, this is the biggest game in the Dog's recent history. That's how big it is. It's going to be fifty sixty thousand people at a core. There's a team that hasn't got a lot of finals experience outside of Crichton kick Our a little bit of burning at our car. There's a huge game because they've turned around the the ladder position, and if they go on the skids three losses in a row, that's that's a different way to go out of the final.

You're thinking there, I've forgotten the fact that I live in the Manly area. And off to the dogs problem because a lot of my neighbors are real dead shits.

It's you know, that's all right.

Your house sits on top of the hill and everyone else is down below.

So they went to the hill close to the boast of that Cowboys Knights. Yeah, this is interesting. And the reason I give the Knights a great chance.

Talking about bias here or just generally thinking.

Generally, and I mean they see what you think about it is that dolphins. Dolphins are very good crafting too. They graft and they grind, they get in the arm wrestle. Of these moments in the game the other day that they're sort of just going there. They work, and I'll starting to see a bit of the gas going out of our.

Defense, and I'll see, you know what our defense, the Knights defense.

The Red and Blues, And I thought, but they hung in there and they got through it. What's the one thing I reckon the Cowboys will struggle with this year. Cowboys come out of it, They burst out of the barriers and they try it. They just go for it. Hence the reason why there's a big difference between their

When there's a huge gap between your best and the worst, the best way to highlight the worst. So I'll give you the best chance of playing is bring the game into the trenches and make it really tough and uncomfort If you make it stop start, if you make it free flowing and flamboyant, then that team that can go to a heighlight the Cowboys will find it. But if you make it really ugly, it might just drag the

Did you see the Cowboys performance on the weekend?

Wow, it was a statement in my mind that I had question marks around the Cowboys and then they delivered that and I'm thinking, holy hell, if they can do that again for the month, they could just be.

A teams through this season.

We've done that four or five times, Yes, yeah, four or four times I've going Wow, become the Cowboys, and then.

Their defensive intent on the weekend through the example of Cotterer was tremendous I love. And then Diden's like direct style in the that he ran the football forced everyone else to follow him. So I think their leadership is key to how the Cowboys.

Go Coops, Roosters and Penrith russus in there.

They've lost the last and nine times against Penrith. Okay, you tell me how the russ is going to win this. How do they change their formula so it's not ten losses in a row.

Yeah.

See, I think most people will automatically think to scoring points, and I understand that that's the way the game's got to score more points in the opposition. But I think they need to have their best defensive game of the season. I know with Walker out Brendon Smith out, they lose a lot of that scoring instinct play, but they actually are a better defensive team with the players that come in, So I think it's the best defensive performance of the year might give the Russes a chance.

Nathan is most likely he is He's a lot to play. My male is he's going to play? Which I'm really curious to see because he comes back into the side and they reunite, he and Jerome. But he's coming into the side and reuniting with Jerome. With Jerome in career best form, does.

They worry what they've done? Last month? Panthers had fifteen errors on the weekend. They won. Haven't been clunky, they.

Haven't really been able to use the slaterism get their game on. Haven't been able to But again, I come back to the fact that I give them the benefit out a little bit like the dogs, is that there's been an element of treading water and coops.

They've just they know what it takes.

And I'm not saying they can just turn it on, but you know they've been and done it before. They do know what it takes to I think.

They can turn it on. It's that autopilot for them.

And I feel like the emotional rush of Leui and Fisher Harris, the last ride that this whole crew is going to get together, will be like that driving force for them to not have the fifteen errors, to not have the lapses in concentration. Nathan comes back in, But how do the roost do the ruses have to play a different style.

I said, double down on defense.

Yep.

They need to the score points with the football. They need to play a style of football coop. They don't need to be they don't need to be flash and fancy and come up with miracle plays, but they they have to. They've got to take the petrol out of the tank of the big middles of Penrith's. That's the reason. And I know it won't happen, but I would be putting Manu to six and I'll be just I would be just doing a middle field assault on those big on those big fours from Penrith.

I mean, you look, and it's just one example.

If you have a look at you know that night with Tyren Wishart sort of showed the way a little.

Bit and just go I'm not going to mark around.

I'm just going to go bang and take one of those big guys on, take them on the footwork, make.

Them miss a little bit, takes a bit of petrol out of the tank.

Well, that's why I think.

Doubling down on the and if this game is close at the semith minute mark, the Rousters have the talent.

For it, said Esco.

To break through a Tideline or Swali or Marnu to come up with a play. I don't think they're going to blow Penrith away at home twenty eight to ten, right, But if it is close and their defense is on and it's frustrating Penrith, then I think if it's ten, ten, sixteen, or would tend to go, one of their gun players can do it. And I think that's why sometimes in big games, you don't worry about how your score points.

I have Penrith as my competition favorite still that Melbourne.

The bookie is the favorites.

With Melbourne with Nathan coming back into the side the way Jerome has been playing, I see Penrith getting it right.

They're still my favorite.

How confident about Nathan's shoulder, I don't know. Actually, like a boss of a coin.

For me, it's a blind comment because I don't know. I don't know the extent of it. They kept it very much under wraps. I'm not sure, and they win it if he's not there. I still think they can't. I think they're still capable.

But yeah, I don't know.

There's obviously an injury there, right, so it can only stand the test of time over a period however long, what happens. But he's a true pro, like he is not just sitting at home twiddling his thun playing PlayStation like.

Ken halfbacks go in with a bad shoulder and arm injury and high enough but cower enough in the defense line to basically not being supposed.

I don't know. I'll let you think about that the course of the week.

That's the nine terams who season he's done and dusted and time's up. Let's debrief them, debrief they're quickly canber Raiders. The question I'm going to ask you through this is what went wrong? And I don't think for the canber Raiders, I don't think that's the right term, what went wrong? Because I thought that considering things that had a good season, I suppose to Jamal Foggarty that lost the middle of the year, that was that was a tough one.

It's not.

It's more around like how can they win more games?

Right?

Because they've been on the cusp for a lot. I think they need to find a different way to win games. If they're not got that gritty nature, they don't seem to win. So I think their attack needes evolve. But I'll tell you what, Yeah, Fogerty's was a miss, but tarp and he was the best player.

By Yeah, he was very good. Young Strange had his moments, good first.

Week weeks and was a good Yeah fine too.

So yeah, there's a lot to be a lot to look forward to there.

I think going forward next year, I've got them in between six and ten, probably around the same spot. A couple of extra wins will push them into the AK.

That's why they need to find different ways to win, because if they lose a couple of those games by two or four, they need some more fire powder to score those points.

Dolphins.

Now, this is legitimate question what went wrong because in the middle part of the season coupe, they are on fire.

They little like they're on course for top four.

The wheels just came off the last third of the season, and I reckon. I reckon the bloke that probably typifies that most is and his big fuseon Isaiah Catawa, but like he was really at a gas plot.

I would say the area that that spine needs to get better at is making the right decision in big moments. There's a couple of times where if you had decided to do something else, probably a better chance of winning the game.

But his upside is pretty good.

Nick Remott a career best year, Hammer was good as all his point of difference.

But I think if if their spine become a little.

Bit more experienced and can manage games better, like the biggest one is led Penrith at Penrith by a bit with twin minths to go, if Isaiah Cartel takes that shot at a field goal does something, there's a win that they probably need to get any.

A big question here for Christian Wolf.

There's only ever been Tim Shoens that has taken the baton from Waine and made a success ongoing, and that was the camera side all that camera side that was about to boom the green machine.

He was co coached with Don Ferner.

He leaves, goes back to the Broncos, shoon, takes shoes, takes a side, and away they go. Every other coach. They've gone off a cliff. It's like, you know, when Jason Mutro took over. I said to a mate, I said, mate, Wayne's left a turd under the bed somewhere. He can smell it. He just can't find it.

Yeah, right, well, I reckon, mate, I can't find that up.

That's a great analogy. That was good dragons.

Dragons, great suasan for Flanner, Great suason for Flanner. Big improvement the fact they went into that, you know the end, they were in a chance to make the eight, and they'll be disappointed they didn't make the eight.

That's a big improvement. It's just getting used to winning again.

It's almost like they've had bad habits for long period of time and the bad habits turned up at the wrong time for them.

I don't like you.

Look, they joked they had the eighth spot in their grasp. All they had to do was win one of those games, and they conceded a lot of points.

Their intensity went out. That's the one thing that they showed.

When their forward pack was dominant and playing physical, that's when they played their best football. And when they didn't, that's when they do it.

Look, there's wipe in a stead boy.

Last year's success and the adulation and the expectation that came with that success poisoned the well. And as far as next season is concerned, the bottom line is they need a lot of self assessment if they're going to go anywhere.

Yeah, when you sit there and sieve through like the football reasons why, like you could go tack defense, discipline errors, whatever it is. But the thing that underpins that whole thing is I think the Broncos last year, individually and as a team had a real like sort of laser focus to improve and get better. And I don't think they had that this year, and that's ultimately why they missed out on the finals.

I don't think they.

Worked hard enough individually to improve their game and ultimately collectively to do it.

Because yeah, it's it was super disappointed just.

To get the mindset there.

Coops, you said something that and I think to myself, a lot of teams will get to a Grand Final and get beaten. And there's two ways of think, and you either go away filthy and you say with failed or you go off triumphant and say we didn't win it, but fantastic season.

I think with the Broncos it was the latter.

The example is Pendrith got beaten by the Melbourne Storm of that Grand Final and they came back in that offseason, started working harder. Look what they've done. They've improved each year. Paramatta got beaten in a Grand final, Bush and Bank. Yeah, Brisbane got beaten in a Grand final, went Bank. If they don't work hard enough.

To improve, Bunnies, sure bunny for another one by another one. The Warriors, this is my greatest disappointment, just simply because I've loved to have seen them win the competition.

A lot of expectation. Look, a lot of things didn't happen. And I said this last week.

I thought lut Metcalf been absent for a long stretch. I think it really affect the balance of their attack. I think that was a contributing factor.

Yeah, I think the Warriors got comfortable. They played some really predictable, slow moving, some lacking intensity consistently but then their last performance against the Sharks showed that they can do it. So where has that been fifteen weeks prior player Mitch.

Barnett agree with that, Yeah, Mitch Barnett next year. So no Shawn Johnson, no fanil Blake, but they get James Fisher Harris. Warriors always a difficult, very difficult side to get a handle on whether I think.

The Fisher Harris signing is more about spirit and example of what a winner looks like as opposed to adding.

Value to the way they play like I think what he's done to that Ford.

Pack at Penrith, I Moses Liota, he will do to that next up coming New Zealand worries for Ford front row really So.

Now the Titans.

The Titans going into this season, the for me why it was going to be such a tight competition because I thought, we're de going there, all those players a year old. I thought, mate, this team is going to play finals. I don't know if it just took them a long time to adjust to Dez's methods. I'm not sure exactly was the last of TEENA was a big one, but trying to work out the puzzle, which was the spine a lot going on.

Think about the Titans for me is they need to get a good balance on both sides of the ball. The defense needs to compliment their attack and their attack needs to compliment defense. At the moment, it's either they defend really well and win games, or they defend bad and their attack is so good that it's firepower and score on points. They just need to find that perfect balance between that paramatta.

What went wrong? There's numerous things, one of which was no offense.

Brad did a great job, but they probably hung on with Brad a season too long.

That's my opinion.

I think that they needed to change the formula. I think the players got too comfortable under Brad. My opinion the loss of Mitchell mos of course the middle of the year and Gutha that was a factor, but they never looked like a final side.

He's got a bit way through their.

Even just in attitude, because what's a lot of the players interviewed like if I got a new coach coming in and they say, Maddie, you're looking for the roles, you come and can't wait.

Fantastic new start.

Here is a great bloke, but it was very it was almost like a resentment that the Brad was gone or Trent wasn't going to be the coach.

And we're also taled team that played a Grand Final two years ago. Yeah something for me, it tells you that they lacked the inspiration to want to climb that mountain again because they did it to get there.

Then all of a sudden they've dropped off.

They two years ago they were playing in Grand Final and on the weekend they played.

In the spoon ball.

Yeah, Dylan Brown was their best play but a lot happened over the course of the weekend.

And wait for.

I think he's okay partial to Yeah, yeah, I think he's okay. That's a huge thing for Jason Rowles. If you've gone five eight, he's out for half of the season.

That's a huge thing wrong for all.

That South was a disastrous season.

What went wrong?

Well, the Chickens come home to roost. We've said that before.

They've been aside that has you know, there's been carelessness around their football, there's been lack of focus, there's been distractions.

Jason Demitri clearly wasn't the man.

Look, Wayne goes there next year, but it's going to take more than just a bit of magic dust from way, ain't it.

Yeah?

They lacked intensity, consistency, all those things that make you a good team. This was a club that's on his knees. In the first half of the season, they were bad, really bad. And if it was anyone other than Wayne Bennett, You're probably thinking, where's light at the end of the tunnel. But Wayne's got this ability to make Cody and Latrell work harder than what they normally do. And if they can do that, they're a good team.

Yeah. Yeah, the Tigers. Look what went wrong before we get to that. We'll talk general before we get to that last game. They just didn't quite have the experience of the confidence in key positions to win consistently.

Last performance, Coop was the shocker. It was I hope that they are embarrassed bite because Coop.

In that month leading up to that last game, there was a real great feeling about the Tigers. You know, the fans were turning up, everyone was excited. You got Leway coming and Taruva so on, and.

I couldn't believe what they served up in that last game.

Craig Belly as you to say this Tommy year. Yeah, good and bad habits show up. So if you've improved and got more good habits than your good footy kinks in if you're bad habits, there the Tigers for me to play against the Paramount Eels, who conceded five tries in the last ten minutes a week before. All the Tigers needed to do was be disciplined and make their tackles yep and hold onto the ball, and they would have run through the Paramount Eels at some stage.

But what they did coras how got sinbinned. They turned over errors.

They were flamboyant from the start, and Galvin is the shining light. But if you're investing a lot of time like we did about the Dolphins, in young kids in key positions to make all the decisions in a game, you're going to have a lot of learnings as opposed to good times. Yeah, that was one of the more disappointing performances of the season overall.

Some of the worst defensive effits I've ever seen. Yeah, oh well, Tigs and those other sides. Twenty twenty five will come around pretty quick.

But looking forward to this week, Coops