Trump Tariff Outcomes: Is the “Less-Worse” Case a Best-Case Scenario?

What’s the most likely outcome for President Trump’s tariff strategy – trading partners capitulating, America’s economy and exceptionalism crumbling, or something in the middle? 

Hoover fellows and economists Michael Bordo and Mickey Levy discuss a recent paper they’ve published on the history of tariff impositions and four possible outcomes (none of them are good). Their conclusion: the odds favor a “less-worse” case of 12%-14% tariffs and deals with Canada and Mexico, with a “small but cumulative impact” on longer-run potential growth (maybe a mild recession) while the U.S. retains its global dominant status.  

Recorded on June 6, 2025