This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand , former NATO assistant secretary general and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode dissecting the high-stakes NATO summit in The Hague. Against a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, world leaders navigated President Donald Trump’s push for a 5% GDP defence-spending target, their ongoing support for Ukraine, and Russia’s long-term threat. Mark and Camille explore the summit’s carefully choreographed outcomes, incl...
Jun 25, 2025•11 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by the deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Ellie Geranmayeh , and Eran Etzion , policy planning director for the Israeli foreign ministry and former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council. Mark and his guests break down how the conflict has developed since last Friday’s emergency podcast and explore possible future scenarios. The discussion looks at the conflict from the Israeli and the Iranian perspectives, taking into a...
Jun 19, 2025•35 min
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh , deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode diving into Israel’s massive overnight attack on Iran. Using 200 fighter jets, Israel targeted over 100 military and nuclear sites, assassinating senior Iranian commanders and scientists. The result is a situation which is escalating far beyond October 2024’s tit-for-tat strikes. As Iran responds by launching drone attacks on Israel and debating br...
Jun 13, 2025•17 min
A humanitarian crisis in Gaza; question marks around Iran; unstable governments in eastern Europe; and the growth of China’s economic and military might. All are cause for concern—and all provide the backdrop to the Trump administration’s approach to foreign policy, which represents the biggest generational shift since the cold war. This week Mark Leonard is joined by Dan Caldwell , former senior adviser at the Pentagon, and Curt Mills , executive editor of the American Conservative , to talk ab...
Jun 13, 2025•33 min
How policymakers respond to Europe’s many challenges—from Russian aggression to sluggish economic growth to the shift to clean energy - will shape the continent for decades to come. In the face of these trials, however, they overlook something slower but equally as important: the global demographic transition. This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Alberto Rizzi , ECFR policy fellow, to discuss what effect a shrinking and ageing global population is having on 21st-century geopolitics. Building on ...
Jun 06, 2025•27 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Malcolm Chalmers , deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute and former Labour government advisor, for an Emergency Room episode dissecting the UK’s newly unveiled Strategic Defence Review (SDR). Prime minister Keir Starmer has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% GDP by 2030, expanding the UK’s military capabilities with 12 attack submarines, boosting munitions production, and possibly reviving an air-launched nuclear capabilit...
Jun 04, 2025•18 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras , head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for a 15-minute rapid-response episode dissecting the outcome of Poland’s presidential election. Yesterday, right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, member of the Law and Justice party (PiS), edged out Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski by just 400,000 votes, crushing hopes of a liberal wave similar to Romania. Together, Mark and Piotr unpack the election’s profound impact on Poland’s fractured politics, what the outcome mea...
Jun 02, 2025•16 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tiago Antunes , ECFR associate senior fellow at and former Portuguese secretary of state for European affairs; and Nicu Popescu , ECFR distinguished policy fellow and former Moldovan deputy prime minister and foreign minister. Mark, Tiago and Nicu discuss the proposal for a European Preparedness Act, inspired by the US Defense Production Act, which aims to enhance the EU’s ability to mobilise resources swiftly in response to crises. The conversation explores ...
May 30, 2025•36 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme director, for an emergency room episode diving into the dire situation in Gaza. After the March ceasefire collapsed, Israel’s intensified offensive—where it plans to occupy 75% of the strip—and an 80-day humanitarian blockade have pushed Gaza into famine. The controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a private US-led initiative bypassing UNRWA, has faltered, with its head resigning amid clai...
May 27, 2025•19 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand , former assistant secretary general at NATO and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, and Ivan Rogers , formerly Britain’s permanent representative to the EU, adviser for Europe and global issues to David Cameron, and principle private secretary to Tony Blair. It has been four days after the EU-UK summit and the dust is settling—but questions remain. Together, Mark, Camille and Ivan dive into the security and defence pact, the political asymmetries...
May 23, 2025•35 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for an emergency room episode dissecting Sunday’s pivotal elections in Poland and Romania. Their discussion, which was recorded after high-stakes voting had taken place across Portugal, Poland and Romania, zooms in on some surprising outcomes. Romania’s liberal candidate, Dan Barna, defied polls to defeat far-right contender George Simion, while Poland’s presidential race heads to a tight runoff between liberal Rafal...
May 21, 2025•16 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mij Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group and ECFR council member, for an emergency room episode dissecting the long-awaited EU-UK summit. While the summit’s agreement sets precedents on policies including an agri-food deal, and a security and defence partnership, it falls short of achieving ambitious goals like a customs union. Mark and Mij’s discussion, recorded as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European Council presiden...
May 19, 2025•15 min
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and senior policy fellow, to discuss how President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could reshape Europe’s political landscape. Their conversation builds on Célia’s recent policy brief, “MAGA goes global: Trump’s plan for Europe”: she argues that, while Trump’s foreign policy may appear impulsive, it follows a clear ideological playbook which casts Europe not as a partner, but as a target for intimidation, transformation or o...
May 16, 2025•31 min
Far from a grand bargain, the US-China trade deal rolls back President Donald Trump’s post-Liberation Day tariff spiral—which peaked at 145%—to pre-April levels. This will avert empty US shelves, but leaves underlying tensions unresolved. In this emergency room episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to dissect the recent de-escalation, which the parties agreed this week in Geneva. The conversation explores who holds the upper hand, the prospects for a 90-day ...
May 14, 2025•13 min
Over the weekend, India and Pakistan came closer to all-out war than perhaps at any point in the past 20 to 25 years as missiles flew back and forth across the border. At the point of this podcast recording, a fragile ceasefire appears to be holding—but tensions remain high. In this week’s emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Small , senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific programme, to discuss how the recent escalation of tensions between Indi...
May 12, 2025•17 min
As of May 6th, Germany has a new government, led by the CDU’s Friedrich Merz in coalition with the CSU and SPD. Despite a last-minute hitch, Merz is now safely installed in the Bundeskanzleramt in Berlin, from where he immediately jetted off to Paris and Warsaw for high-level political meetings. In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe , ECFR editorial director and senior policy fellow, and Jana Puglierin , ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow, to discuss the new German...
May 09, 2025•32 min
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe. From territorial provocations and budget slashes to institutional chaos and a reordering of US foreign policy, Donald Trump’s early months in office have shaken American governance and global diplomacy alike. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR...
May 02, 2025•29 min
Friedrich Merz is set to become Germany’s next chancellor after Social Democratic Party members approved a coalition agreement with the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union—bringing Olaf Scholz’s tenure to an end. In this emergency episode of World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Puglierin , head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to break down what happens next. How have the ministries been divided up? What does it reveal about the direction of...
Apr 30, 2025•15 min
On the 100th day of Donald Trump’s second term, the war in Ukraine—which he promised to end within 24 hours—rages on. As Trump’s impatience with the conflict grows, Ukraine and its European allies are scrambling to prevent an imposed peace deal that would see Kyiv recognise Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine , and abandon its hopes of joining NATO. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova , visiting fellow at ECFR and former foreign policy advisor to Slovak presid...
Apr 28, 2025•16 min
After years of stalled diplomacy, the US and Iran are back in high-level talks. Surprise meetings have taken place in Oman and Rome, with more expected soon. Could this be President Donald Trump’s long-awaited foreign policy win? Or will competing agendas, regional tensions and internal divisions doom the negotiations before they begin? This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh , deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme; Mohsen Milani, executive director of the Center for Strategic and D...
Apr 25, 2025•32 min
Two weeks after Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement shook global markets, he has now offered most countries a 90-day reprieve—while simultaneously escalating trade tensions with China by imposing harsher penalties. So far, China has responded by matching each tariff hike with its own response. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais , ECFR senior policy fellow and head of its geoeconomics initiative, and Janka Oertel , director of ECFR’s Asia programme, to delve into the complex...
Apr 18, 2025•30 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Mujtaba Rahman , managing director, Europe, at Eurasia Group, to explore the evolving dynamic between the EU and the UK. With a new British government under Keir Starmer and shifting global currents, what are the real opportunities—and constraints—for a meaningful reset in EU-UK relations? Mark and Mujtaba discuss the urgency of deeper cooperation on security and defence, the complexity of trade relations, and the need for joint solutions on migration and cli...
Apr 11, 2025•43 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand , ECFR distinguished policy fellow, and Janka Oertel , head of ECFR’s Asia programme, who have recently returned from Taipei. Together, they explore Taiwan’s delicate balancing act as China ramps up its military drills and as the second Trump administration’s priorities shift. The conversation dives into Taiwan’s efforts to secure US support through economic investments like TSMC’s Arizona project and its “porcupine strategy” to deter Chinese in...
Apr 04, 2025•29 min
In this emergency room episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Agathe Demarais, ECFR senior policy fellow and geoeconomics team leader. They explore the dramatic implications of Donald Trump’s unexpected and aggressive tariff policies announcement on 2nd April—which he has dubbed “Independence Day.” Mark and Agathe discuss the economic shockwaves hitting the US—where tariffs threaten inflation and the acceleration of a looming recession—as well as their cascading effects on Europe and the global trad...
Apr 03, 2025•17 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office, to dive into the seismic news shaking French politics: the conviction of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (RN). A French court has found Le Pen guilty of misusing European Parliament funds, sentencing her to a five-year ban from public office and effectively sidelining her from France’s 2027 presidential race. Mark and Célia discuss the fallout in France—from the RN’s shock and unpreparedness for ...
Apr 01, 2025•15 min
This week, Mark Leonard hosts an expert panel to dive into Europe’s evolving relationships with Asia amid the uncertainties of the Trump administration. Joining from Berlin is Janka Oertel , head of ECFR’s Asia programme; from London, James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at ECFR with extensive Asia experience; and from New Delhi, Rudra Chowdhury , director of Carnegie India and a key collaborator on digital initiatives. Together, they explore how Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies ...
Mar 28, 2025•30 min
This week, Mark Leonard joins forces with Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s director of research and US programme director, to unpick two momentous geopolitical disruptions. First, a stunning scandal emerged from a Signal group chat, where senior US officials—including the vice president, secretary of defence and CIA director—carelessly looped in the Atlantic ’s editor-in-chief to discuss military strikes in Yemen. Among their plans, the chat laid bare the US administration’s disdain for Europe and schemes...
Mar 26, 2025•14 min
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow for ECFR’s Wider Europe programme and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the dramatic arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The arrest sparked nationwide protests; together they explore whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s bold move signals a critical shift for Turkish democracy, potentially steering the country toward a less competitive system reminiscent of Russia or Iran. ...
Mar 24, 2025•19 min
This week, Mark Leonard hosts Tobias Gehrke, an ECFR senior policy fellow specialising in geoeconomics and economic security, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and expert on tech geopolitics, to explore how Europe can counter a potentially hostile Trump administration. With trade wars looming and the US flexing its power, Mark and his guests delve into Tobias’s new policy brief, Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion. They outline which tools Europe c...
Mar 21, 2025•31 min
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kirill Shamiev , a policy fellow with ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, to dissect the outcomes and implications of the historic phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin—which, at two-and-a-half-hours, was the longest between American and Russian leaders in history. Mark and Kirill explore the three key outcomes: a prisoner exchange of 175 individuals from each side; an agreement to cease attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days; and a shift from i...
Mar 19, 2025•11 min
