The prolongation of existing — and emergence of new — armed conflicts will likely remain a major source of geopolitical instability in the world economy, according to our strategic report on key themes for 2024. Following Iran’s recent strike on Israel, we pose the question: What could an escalation mean for the global economy? The Decisive podcast > Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts > Read our blog on escalation implications > Download our report on 2024 themes...
May 28, 2024•16 min•Ep. 28
We see five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of geopolitical reordering. National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade, and investment. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcomes of more than 70 scheduled elections — half of which will be presidential elections. The outcomes will have m...
Apr 01, 2024•20 min•Ep. 27
One of our key themes for 2024 is logistics rewired. At the world's largest ocean container shipping event, TPM, shippers and their transportation providers will have plenty to talk about. Navigation restrictions on the Panama Canal, rerouting from the Red Sea to avoid attacks from Houthi militants, the persistent issue of overcapacity. How is the shipping industry responding to these shocks and what impact could we see on trade and the global economy? Join us at #TPM24, March 3 - 6, where these...
Mar 01, 2024•17 min•Ep. 26
2023 was a year of recovery, giving the air of a return to normal. Unfortunately, normal for supply chains means guiding operations through the middle of a storm of potential disruptions. Some are already visible, including the knock-on from conflict in the Middle East and the prospect of a renewed wave of trade protectionism. Others will emerge by surprise. Our experts discuss the prospects for trade and supply chains in 2024, with topics including: Physical operations present the biggest chall...
Feb 06, 2024•32 min•Ep. 25
Droughts and flood events in recent years have highlighted the importance of water as a strategic global resource. Climate change will impact access to water and force many countries to modify how they manage resources, according to a new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The prevalence of severe difficulties to predict weather patterns is likely to continue across the globe affecting populations, countries’ economic performances and key industries that rely on water as an essential re...
Jan 08, 2024•22 min•Ep. 24
Deceptive shipping practices began to emerge as a topic of interest in 2020, following guidance from the U.S. Treasury Department. Subterfuge shipping has always been an issue. But this proverbial game of cat and mouse has continued to escalate in terms of the complexity of tactics used to circumvent these regulations, as well as the industry tools used to identify and combat them. How are the tactics used in subterfuge shipping activities evolving? And what risks do they pose for businesses and...
Dec 18, 2023•15 min•Ep. 23
The supply chain story of 2023 so far has been one of normalization. Demand has slowed down with U. S. seaborne imports of consumer goods falling in the first eight months of the year. The seasonality of shipping patterns also appears to be returning to normal and global trade activity is likely to stabilize. But as ever, we see risks on the horizon. Trade policies are becoming more restrictive and sustainability policies are starting to have real consequences for supply chains. Water stress and...
Nov 21, 2023•20 min•Ep. 22
We may be stuck in road traffic for an hour, but ships can be waiting for many hours to enter a port, generating emissions all the while. In this episode, Turloch Mooney, Product Management Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence discusses what the shipping industry is doing to manage these wait times and get closer to their emissions targets and save money in the process. Speakers: Turloch Mooney - Product Management Associate Director, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Ma...
Oct 05, 2023•22 min•Ep. 21
Roughly 18 months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, sending shock waves through financial and commodities markets. Since then, we've seen rounds of sanctions from the US and EU, an expansion of NATO, and an attempted mutiny in Russia. Still, the war grinds on. In this episode, we discuss the outlook for the Russia-Ukraine conflict with Alex Kokcharov, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Principal Country Risk Research Analyst. How long is the conflict likely to last? What risk factors could influence it...
Sep 08, 2023•22 min•Ep. 20
The EU’s 11th package of sanctions targeted against Russian trade is to close loopholes and tackle the circumvention of trade through re-exports of goods via third party countries to Russia and also to tackle the illicit transfer of oil via ship-to-ship transfers in EU waters. Byron McKinney, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Product Management Director discusses the shipping segment within the transport section of the document. Listen to the on-demand webinar in full: https://www.spglobal.com/ma...
Aug 23, 2023•18 min•Ep. 19
How close are supply chains to normality? Which industrial policies provide the biggest risks? What strategies should firms be pursuing in the face of perpetual upheaval? Can technology investments help build resilience? Our experts explore these questions and share their outlook for the remainder of 2023 and beyond. Speakers: Chris Rogers Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence Agnieszka Maciejewska Economics Manager, GTAS Forecasting, S&P Global Market Intelligence Mark F...
Jul 27, 2023•31 min•Ep. 18
The global supply chain landscape is returning to "normal" conditions in the second quarter of 2023, with supplier delivery times improving and shipping rates at their lowest since September 2020. However, the second half of the year presents challenges, including the direction of corporate sourcing strategies, political tensions, and the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Is global trade doomed for a decline or set for recovery? Can corporate decision-makers h...
Jun 21, 2023•27 min•Ep. 17
Russia has repeatedly stated that it will not work with the G7 oil price cap for crude oil that took effect in December 2022, or with the subsequent price cap on refined products that became effective in February 2023. If Russia insists on not conforming to the price cap, it can't use services located in G7 countries due to sanctions controls. This scenario gives rise to the need for a substantial shadow or ghost fleet of vessels able to transport Russian oil as close to capacity as possible whi...
May 11, 2023•27 min•Ep. 16
Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world, with many thousands of individuals, entities and traded goods placed under controlled measures by the U.S., Europe and their allies. In this episode, we discuss how successful these sanctions have been over the past year and their impact on the Russian economy and its ability to continue the conflict in Ukraine. The experts also talk about: Russia’s new trading partnerships, new outlets for oil cargoes and the methods used to evade maritime san...
Apr 05, 2023•18 min•Ep. 15
Trade between the U.S. and China reached a record in 2022 with imports and exports between the countries exceeding $690 billion. What are the forces shaping the economic relations between the two countries and what can we expect on U.S.-China trade going forward? Speakers: John Raines - Principal Global Risks Adviser, Head of North America Risk and Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence Todd Lee - Chief China Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence...
Mar 28, 2023•17 min•Ep. 14
In June 2022, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) provided multiple recommendations to U.S. universities with assistance from the U.S. Department of Commerce and Homeland Security, referencing the proposed dangers of conducting research using foreign controlled goods and sensitive information. The aim of this public notice was to help universities strengthen their export control compliance procedures, and in-turn mitigate the risk of illicit export and import activity. Two of the key...
Feb 24, 2023•25 min•Ep. 13
The implementation of a price cap covering Russian-origin crude oil on 5th December has raised a variety of questions regarding its implications; How it will affect trading Will India and China’s appetite for Russian crude continue What it means to overall vessel risk in regards to compliance Could we see an increase in suspicious Russian shipping activity similar to Iran and Venezuela’s sanctions evasion tactics In this episode, S&P Global Market Intelligence experts discussed what the oil pric...
Jan 05, 2023•25 min•Ep. 12
In this episode, Dr. Jakub M. Kwiatkowski, a senior economist within the Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS) Forecasting team of S&P Global Market Intelligence talks about the trends in trade shaped by current geopolitical changes and anticipated shifts in trade following international policies and agreements, including: Historical quarterly perspective and evaluate the factors that are currently shaping trade like conflicts, trade sanctions and energetic policy Trade forecast in GTAS for Q3 202...
Oct 11, 2022•27 min•Ep. 11
The global shipping and maritime industry is facing a myriad of challenges and there is ever greater importance to have a sense of clarity on the role of the insurance market. With a rapidly changing market facing new and emerging risks, our expert panel from AXA XL, Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and S&P Global Market Intelligence address the challenges and discuss practical guides for the insurance market, covering the topics: - Three forces to watch ...
Sep 13, 2022•26 min•Ep. 10
Download the whitepaper: https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0722/impact-russia-invasion-ukraine-trade-finance-compliance-perspective-ii.html As the Russian war effort directed against Ukraine continues, the latest round of sanctions forces shippers, cargo operators, corporates, banks and insurers to reevaluate their compliance programs to align with global regulation. In this episode, Ravi Amin, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Trade Compliance Subject Matter Experts and the author of the August update ...
Aug 10, 2022•21 min•Ep. 9
The launch of the second comparable index of global container port performance. In this episode, joint members of the World Bank Group and S&P Global Market Intelligence team who had created the index discuss the scope, underlying data, and methodology, as well as its purpose and uses of the second Container Port Performance Index (CPPI). Download the CPPI 2021 report: https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0522/cppi2021report.html *This episode is an excerpt from a webinar. Listen to the on-demand webinar ...
Jul 13, 2022•24 min•Ep. 8
With concrete action awaiting to lay out the path to decarbonize maritime emissions, Patrick Verhoeven, managing director of the International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH), and Jutta Paulus, member of the European Parliament and rapporteur for the revision of the EU emissions reporting regulation, discussed setting out rules and mutual expectations. MEPC 78 takes place at the beginning of June and this discussion will continue. Speakers: Jutta Paulus - Member of the European Parliamen...
Jun 16, 2022•15 min•Ep. 7
Download the whitepaper: https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0522/impact-russia-invasion-ukraine-trade-finance-compliance-perspective.html In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, governments and regulators have enforced stringent sanctions in key strategic industries. Countries have periodically announced new restrictions on various Russian individuals, entities, and industries; and it is likely that this will continue as the conflict is prolonged. In this episode, Ravi Amin and Jeremy Domballe dive...
May 24, 2022•18 min•Ep. 6
Following IMO Maritime Safety Committee (MSC 104) in October 2021, consideration was given to IAPH’s submission outlining the recently finalised version of the Cybersecurity Guidelines for Ports and Port Facilities and calling for its inclusion in the next version of the IMO Guidelines on Maritime Cyber Risk Management. Its chair, Mayte Medina (United States), proposed a request to the secretariat to update the IMO guidelines, subject to agreement at the next meeting of the Facilitation Committe...
Apr 21, 2022•20 min•Ep. 5
In 2020, the International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH) surveyed its members looking at their compliance with the IMO Facilitation on International Maritime Traffic (FAL) Convention and found that only one-third of respondents met the requirements to have digital port community systems in place. This followed the International Maritime Organization (IMO) revelation in November 2020 that only 49 of the 174 IMO member states have working systems. Patrick Verhoeven, IAPH managing directo...
Mar 29, 2022•19 min•Ep. 4
Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (OFAC) advisory on ‘Guidance to Address Illicit Shipping and Sanctions Evasion Practices’ of 2020 outlined a number of recommendations for financial institutions to manage shipping risk. The guidance relating to ‘dark’ activity and ship-to-ship transfers have been challenging to implement within existing trade finance compliance screening programmes. ACSS, IIBLP and IHS Markit interviewed a number of banks and others to look at the actions taken by financial in...
Feb 25, 2022•21 min•Ep. 3
What is AIS, what it’s designed to do, how does it work? The Basics of AIS Part I and Part II intends to assist users new to AIS to make informed decisions on the consumption and interpretation of AIS data. Download AIS Fundamentals: https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/prot/pdf/0222/840090525_0222_MT_MAT_AIS-Fundamentals_Brochure_Final_LowRes.pdf Listen to Part I: https://soundcloud.com/maritimeandtrade-talk/ep1-part-1-the-basics-of-ais Speakers: George Devereese - Director, Maritime Risk & Compliance...
Feb 23, 2022•23 min•Ep. 2
What is AIS, what it’s designed to do, how does it work? The Basics of AIS Part I and Part II intends to assist users new to AIS to make informed decisions on the consumption and interpretation of AIS data. Download AIS Fundamentals: https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/prot/pdf/0222/840090525_0222_MT_MAT_AIS-Fundamentals_Brochure_Final_LowRes.pdf Listen to Part II: https://soundcloud.com/maritimeandtrade-talk/ep2-part-2-the-basics-of-ais Speakers: George Devereese - Director, Maritime Risk & Complianc...
Feb 22, 2022•28 min•Ep. 1
