Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives. (00:00) - Introduction (02:07) - US-Russia Relations (03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy (05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia (09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion (14:14) - Historical Context and Predictions (29:37) - US Wealth Inequality (40:37) - Debating Wealth In...
Mar 27, 2025•1 hr 46 min
Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai . He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project. https://x.com/MishaLaskin Steve and Misha discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education (03:50) - Transition from Physics to AI (05:47) - First Startup Experience (07:19) - Discovering Deep Learning (08:...
Mar 13, 2025•54 min
Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation. Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Steve and Taylor discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China (04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact (06:5...
Feb 27, 2025•1 hr 26 min
Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award...
Feb 13, 2025•1 hr 7 min
(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power (00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model (02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute (10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations (15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China (34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology (42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs (46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes (52:20) - Chinese Sixth Generation Aircraft Capabilities (01:00:50) - Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Future De...
Jan 30, 2025•2 hr 2 min
Relevant links: Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5 Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/ Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dp Chapters: (00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam (03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved" (04:51) - The DARPA DEFUSE Grant Proposal (08:52) - Ralph Baric and Genetic Engineering of Coronaviruses (20...
Jan 16, 2025•1 hr 56 min
Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind. Links of interest: http://bach.ai/ https://x.com/Plinz Steve and Joscha discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germany (06:23) - Academia: early neural net pioneers, CS and Philosophy (10:17) - The fall of the Berlin W...
Jan 02, 2025•1 hr 22 min
This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning. Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPod Information Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw (00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast (01:19) - The education of a physicist (10:53) - Computational geno...
Dec 19, 2024•1 hr 19 min
Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & Hakubi Center. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history. Follow Pascal on X @Plottaz Pascal's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies (00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan (14:17) - Neutrality in internati...
Dec 05, 2024•1 hr 37 min
(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China (02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality (06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing (15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture (22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite (27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China (33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry (35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements (37:17) - Di...
Nov 21, 2024•1 hr
Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking. Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/ Chapters: 00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi 01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now 06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing 12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people 19:09 China's...
Nov 07, 2024•1 hr 2 min
This is a crossover episode with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. (00:00) - Iranian missile attack vs Israel and missile defense (13:10) - Is there potential for a 1973-style oil crisis? (21:41) - Is NATO getting tired of the proxy war in Ukraine? (25:43) - Why has Europe declined relatively since 2008 and what are the consequences of said decline? (30:13) - Is procyclical European fiscal policy to blame? (34:51) - Has China's infrastructure boom been a white elephant? (41:37) - China's ene...
Oct 24, 2024•1 hr 5 min
Samo Burja founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. He is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where he advises on how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, he has chaired the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philoso...
Oct 10, 2024•1 hr 37 min
This is a crossover episode in which https://x.com/loubohan interviews me for his podcast Deus Ex Machina. I was obviously in an exuberant mood for this interview - it's one of my favorites! Deus Ex Machina podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mXUfNJdNnOjGfu6VGactr?si=Y3j1OZG4QsGdPhXd8dKsrw … Timestamps: (00:00) - Growing up in Iowa. Athletics, Chinese culture. KMT and military family background. (11:48) - Hearing about the Cultural Revolution from my dad: his family experienced it firstha...
Sep 26, 2024•1 hr 30 min
This is a crossover episode in which Alf of the Seeking Truth from Facts podcast interviews Steve Hsu about the Chinese economy and political system, and US-China competition. Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts/p-148705853 Steve and Alf discuss: (00:00) - Introduction to the Podcast Collaboration (00:48) - Steve Hsu's Background and Expertise (02:22) - US-China Geopolitical Dynamics (28:44) - China's Political System: Meritocracy vs. Autocracy (32:23) -...
Sep 12, 2024•55 min
This is a short episode recorded at the end of a trip to Caltech (LA), Frankfurt, and Reykjavik. Black hole information and replica wormholes at Caltech (talk slides): https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/black-hole-information-and-replica 00:00 Intro: summer in Iceland 02:04 deCODE genetics 05:52 Chess: Bobby Fischer in Reykjavik 11:56 Hyperscaling genAI 23:11 Synthetic data and Hyperscaling 24:26 Is the Transformer architecture enough for AGI? 29:45 Quantum black holes Music used with permission fr...
Aug 29, 2024•36 min
Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism. Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson "When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU 0:00 Introduction 0...
Aug 15, 2024•1 hr 21 min
Steve discusses China myths and realities with Victor, a tech founder who ran a company in Beijing for 7 years. Among the topics covered: economic growth, real estate bubble, technology innovation, human capital, freedom of expression, Confucianism and Culture. 00:00 Introduction 02:02 Post-COVID economy and bursting of the real estate bubble 08:25 Semiconductor Industry and US-China Tech War 16:57 STEM Education and Workforce: China vs US 20:36 Slides on PRC human capital deepening, STEM and to...
Aug 01, 2024•1 hr 22 min
Earlier episode, Harvard Veritas: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/harvard-veritas-interview-with-a-recent-graduate-anonymous-18 Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Welcome (02:12) - Campus Protests and Media Perception (06:29) - Student Political Views and Academic Freedom (21:44) - Intellectual History of Wokeism (35:46) - STEM vs. Humanities: A Cultural Divide (54:30) - Future of Academia and Closing Thoughts Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improv...
Jul 18, 2024•1 hr 12 min
Steve talks about AI in light of his recent travels to SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley, and Silicon Valley. Chapters: (00:00) - Overview: SF, Singapore, Manila, Berkeley (01:48) - The AI Bubble in Silicon Valley (04:00) - Scaling Laws and AGI (23:36) - Global AI: Singapore, Philippines, real Enterprise applications (34:59) - AGI: Manhattan Project? Manifest and P(doomers), Situational Awareness (51:00) - China LLMs, Huawei vs Nvidia GPUs, US vs China AI race Links: Scaling Laws for Neural Langua...
Jul 04, 2024•59 min
Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.com Philippe on X: https://twitter.com/phl43 (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (00:54) - Philippe's Academic Journey (08:29) - Philosophical Insights and Career Shift: Public Intellectual (46:17) - Russian Energy and European Economy (...
Jun 20, 2024•2 hr 17 min
Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC . He has over 30 years’ experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (“ILS”) market for over 25 years. Prior to forming Fermat with his brother Nelson in 2001, Dr Seo was senior trader in the Insurance Products Group at Lehman Brothers, an officer of Lehman Re, and a state-appointed advisor to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Dr. Seo’s work ...
Jun 06, 2024•1 hr 14 min
Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers and buyers worldwide. His recent video about a recent trip to visit factories in China went viral, generating millions of views on X. Molson Hart on X: https://x.com/Molson_Hart Amazon Documentary: https://youtu.be/8L6MaNVNBuQ?si=YMRb4z5F12CoJJI3 ...
May 16, 2024•1 hr 26 min
Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic. Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, in the United Kingdom and the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States. Steve and Jaan discuss: 00:00 Introduction 00:33 Jaan Tallinn: AI Invest...
May 02, 2024•43 min
Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system. Steve and Glenn discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China (07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy (14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital (23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures (26:35) - China's Devel...
Apr 18, 2024•1 hr 29 min
Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth! Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site. March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight a...
Apr 04, 2024•1 hr 2 min
Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/ Steve and Russell discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan 13:25 Hong Kong and finance 31:53 China property bubble 48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency 56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective 1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observat...
Mar 21, 2024•1 hr 14 min
Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration 23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement 27:31 Revenue streams and future busi...
Mar 07, 2024•50 min
Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief. He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006...
Feb 22, 2024•1 hr 8 min
Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it? Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing Further discussion of the Simulation Question in light of AGI, and a refinement from quantum mechanics: The Quantum Simulation Question: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/...
Feb 08, 2024•53 min
