Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Join him for wide-ranging conversations with leading writers, scientists, technologists, academics, entrepreneurs, investors, and more.
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Jaan Tallinn is a tech billionaire and founding engineer of Skype who leverages his wealth to mitigate existential risks from artificial general intelligence (AGI). He co-founded the Future of Life Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, while making early foundational investments in frontier AI labs like DeepMind andAnthropic. Chapter Markers: 00:00 Assessing Current AI Risk Levels 03:28 Inside Self-Sustaining AI Scenarios 09:10 The Global AI Race Dynamics 42:25 Explaining t...
Dr. Alex Young, a statistical geneticist and assistant professor in the Human Genetics department at UCLA, joins Steve Hsu to discuss the cutting edge of genomic prediction. They cover his research on polygenic embryo screening in IVF (including the ImputePGTA method), family-based DNA analysis, missing heritability, and the implications of polygenic scores for traits like education and disease. Alex also discusses his recent battles with cancer. https://x.com/AlexTISYoung Chapter Markers: (00:0...
Steve and Alf discuss the Iran War, emphasizing what it reveals about modern missile and anti-missile technology, drones, and the implications for a US-China conflict in the Western Pacific. Links: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/ Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Missile War Reality Check (01:49) - How the War Started (04:46) - Iran Outperforms Expectations (06:22) - Why Missile Defense Fails (14:25) - Ceasefire and Hormuz Brinkmanship (19:52) - Nukes and the JCPOA Fallout (33:44) - US Poli...
Richard Ngo is an independent AI researcher and philosopher known for his work on AGI safety and alignment. He recently resigned from OpenAI, where he was a member of the Governance team focused on forecasting the capabilities and risks of advanced AI systems. His debut fiction collection is titled "The Gentle Romance: Stories of AI and Humanity", published in December 2025. The book features 22 science fiction stories that explore the psychological and sociological impacts of advanced artificia...
Matt Southey is an editor for an AI safety organization. He wrote his PhD dissertation on the philosophy of Nick Land. Matt's "A Brief History of Accelerationism" can be found here , and he recommends the second chapter of Crypto-Current as a good introduction to Land's usage of Kant. He and Steve discuss Accelerationism, AI, and Steve's recent meeting with Land in Shanghai. Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Introduction (02:07) - China Trip: Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai (03:16) - Tsinghua University: T...
Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO of Snowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies. Taylor on X: https://x.com/TaylorOgan Previous episodes with Taylor: https://youtu.be/iehHON07UHI?si=h2c3po5AX9Z9ANaK https://youtu.be/fmjR3me5s_Q?si=sPsMFOdKebEOZXQr (00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan (00:53) - Meeting in Shenzhen (02:40) - Greater Bay Area Explained (06:36) - Shenzhen Boom Stories (18:26) - China Tech Reali...
This is the second episode of our series based on interviews for the documentary film, Dreamers and Doomers, about the SF Bay Area in the last days before AGI. Steve interviews Jesse Hoogland, co-founder and executive director of Timaeus , an AI safety research org working on applications of Singular Learning Theory (SLT) for AI safety . SLT establishes a connection between the geometry of the loss landscape and internal structure in models. This connection is used to develop scalable, rigorous ...
Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher, entrepreneur, and the co-founder of AGI House, a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math, Computer Science, and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain. This footage was shot for a documentary project, "Dreamers and Doomers," about the SF Bay Area and the dawn of AGI. (00:00) - Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House – #105 (01:47) - Introduct...
Links: Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future https://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034 Dan's 2025 annual letter https://danwang.co/2025-letter/ Related episodes: Jian Lian on Industrial Maximalism, Manifold Episode #99 https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/jian-lian-on-chinas-industrial-policy-and-global-strategy-99 (00:00) - Introduction and Welcome (02:14) - Breakneck - Dan's huge book (05:00) - China's Technological and Political Landscape (21:07) - In...
Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026. Links: Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijing https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72 Previous crossover episodes: Weeks Where Decades Happen https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happen AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-ai-china-tariffs-geopolitics-84 (00:00) - Geopolitic...
This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond. Links: Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078 My talk from Reproductive Frontiers 2025 in Berkeley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n64rrRPtCa8 Previous episo...
All but the last 20 minutes of this episode should be comprehensible to non-physicists. Steve explains where frontier AI models are in understanding frontier theoretical physics. The best analogy is to a “brilliant but unreliable genius colleague”! He describes a specific example: the use of AI in recent research in quantum field theory (Tomonaga-Schwinger integrability conditions applied to state-dependent modifications of quantum mechanics), work now accepted for publication in Physics Letters...
Murtaza Hussain of DropSite News reveals explosive details from recently obtained Epstein emails, exposing his “extensive relationship with Israeli intelligence, U.S. intelligence and the intelligence agencies of other countries.” The discussion delves into Epstein's function as a “dealmaker and fixer at a very, very elite level,” facilitating back-channel diplomacy and promoting Israeli surveillance technology. The hosts highlight how mainstream media has largely ignored these deeper geopolitical connections, focusing instead on his sex crimes, despite major political figures acknowledging the national security implications.
Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author of "The Truth About Capital" 资本的真相 (2016), which contains major predictions about technology, economy...
Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term. Scott’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Provoked-Washington-Started-Catastrophe-Ukraine/dp/1733647376 X handle: @scotthortonshow (00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukr...
Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently, he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research, which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult problems. They discuss how these methods can be used to advance AI for scientific research, legal analysis, a...
Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai. He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China, and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. Z.ai has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing. https://chat.z.ai/ Follow Z.AI on X: @Zai_org Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Z.ai's Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - A...
This episode is a co-release with the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast: https://substack.com/@seekingtruthfromfacts The theme of this episode derives from Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Steve and Alf discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:32) - China Victory Day Parade and new military technology (12:27) - The SCO summit and its implications (20:24) - Modi's presence and the prospect of a Sino-Indian rapprochement (...
Kyle Chan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology at Princeton University. His research focuses on industrial policy, clean technology, and infrastructure with a regional focus on China and India. He is currently working on a book on Chinese industrial policy that aims to explain how China came to dominate certain industries today that had originally been led by the US, Japan, and other industrialized nations. These industries include electric vehicles, solar, high-speed r...
Dr. Joleen Liang is Co-founder of Squirrel AI, which pioneered adaptive learning at scale, first in China and now in the US. By 2021 its technology had served over 60,000 public schools in 1,200 cities across Asia. Squirrel AI has implemented large knowledge graphs mapping out the main concepts in the K-12 math, science, and language curriculum. The Squirrel learning tablet actively observes student behavior (including eye-tracking during video lessons) and adapts its presentation and testing to...
Max Dama is the co-chairman of Headlands Technologies LLC, a global quantitative proprietary trading firm headquartered in Chicago, with offices in New York, Austin, London, Amsterdam and Singapore. He earned a B.A. in Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, and Business from the University of California, Berkeley. A generation of quants know Max through his notes on automated trading and on interview brain teasers. https://work-in-progress.notion.site/Max-Dama-s-Brainteasers-Study-Guide-WIP-...
Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth. https://makesunsets.com/ Previous Manifold episodes on climate: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/casey-handmer-terraform-industries-and-a-carbon-neutral-future-57 https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/tim-palmer-status-and-future-of-climat...
Manifold has its own Discord channel! https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NX The purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai. Chapter markers: (00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A (02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics (09:28) - Trump Administration, Epstein, and Political Commentary (29:42) - Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges a...
Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group. Steve and Omar discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI (10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind (16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs (33:39) - The Value of AI Talent and Meta's AI Hiring Spree (42:58) - AI and The Workforce (58:02) - The Inters...
Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China. “The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one of the best books about tech, period.” —Ben Thompson, Stratechery. Apple in China on Amazon: https://www.ama...
Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition? Read TP Huang on X: https://x.com/tphuang (00:00) - GODZILLA IS DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Milit...
Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2. Zihan's homepage: https://zihanwang314.github.io/ (00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China (11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow from PRC to US (16:07) - DeepSeek, Open Source and AI Research (31:52) - Model Size and Performance Constraints...
Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship. Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011 (00:00) - Introduction (01:25) - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan (02:30) - Experiences in Chi...
This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/ (00:00) - Introduction (01:11) - China AI (02:30) - DeepSeek (04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance (08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives (12:54) - China Meritocracy (24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China (37:12) - European Defense and Security (41:49) - US-China-Europe Relations Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azur...
Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel." (00:00) - Introduction (02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel' (06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences (13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism (18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom (26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships (32:47) - Representation and Character Dynamics (40:21) - Literary Comparisons and Philosophical Depth (45:38) - Philosophical Underpinnings of Meaning...
