COVID Conspiracies

First tagline of 2024. You have had six months to think about this. Better be amazing. Have we ever had an amazing tagline? Yeah, good point. That's fair. That's fair. Hi everybody and welcome to Maintenance Phase, the podcast that is trading in your tinfoil hat for an N95. Oh, that's good. That actually is good. Oh, thank you. Oh, Michael. Wow. What a lovely compliment. Tempered only by your disbelief. That's a good one. The surprise in my voice. Aubrey! Wow, good. On this show.

First time. I'm Aubrey Gordon. I'm Michael Hobbes. And today, we're back. This was supposed to be our RFK Junior Part III episode. And then we took a what was supposed to be a brief hiatus after we did our ozemic episode. We were kind of like burned out. It was intense and everything. We were like, let's take like the rest of the year off. And we were supposed to come back in early January. And then I got like the flu to end all flu's on fucking Christmas morning.

And I was like, basically like on the couch, like sleeping and coughing for like seven weeks. And so that ended up delaying us coming back. And in the meantime, RFK Junior has like blessedly fallen out of the news cycle. Yeah, no complaints over a year. So for clickbait reasons, we are calling this COVID conspiracies. But if you have been with us for the first two parts, this is kind of a spiritual part three. And if you weren't, welcome. Let's talk about weird COVID shit.

Where do you want to kick us off? So we're starting as usual with a series of tedious meta comments before we begin which 90% of the time we cut from the episode. And yet the triumph of hope over experience. It wouldn't be our show without 20 minutes of trigger warnings and caveats, you know? I actually plan on doing a lot of COVID related episodes this year because I think we're really living in the world that COVID created. There's a sense of like when are things going to get back to normal?

But if history is any guide after these large cataclysmic events, things rarely go back to normal. We're still figuring out what the new normal is going to look like. So I just kind of want to talk about it. I feel like I don't know about other people, but maybe this is just because I was like sick for the last six weeks. But like I'm ready to talk about COVID. I'm ready to promise. Mike is ready to talk about weird respiratory illnesses.

Yeah, my interest in my own lungs has suddenly increased unclear why skyrocketed. Yeah. So one of the main things that I want to convey in this episode is like just how quickly conspiracies emerged. The first published report of COVID is December 27th of 2019. Within one month, we already start seeing conspiracy theory articles. So the Daily Mail publishes one called China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan and US biosafety experts warned in 2017 that a virus could escape.

So we have like lab leak shit happening. We also get from this website that of course I had never heard of, but becomes one of these like major misinformation spreaders. GreatgameIndia.com publishes an article called coronavirus bio weapon. How China stole coronavirus from Canada and weaponized it. But I know this I my favorite thing is like the the weird little cul de sacs of conspiracy theories that people discard like the the stole it from Canada part.

Everyone is just forgotten about and it's like, yeah, not that part, but we're going to keep the rest of this weird bio weapon shit. Of all the gen joints in all the world. Canada. I know I really don't know where this comes, but then this is like just a random tweet, but it showed up on the academic articles I read. This is like a weird QAnon influencer who tweets, Canada is run and owned by Royal British Crown.

It appears the Royal British Crown helped plan and fund this bio weapon made in Wuhan, China lab. So it's like from an outbreak of a virus in China to it's from Canada to no no, it's from the Royal family. I'm really going through a roller coaster on owned by. Maybe we're not really going to cover the lab league bio weapon stuff because me and Peter already did an episode on the lab league. Oh me and Peter already did. Oh, my other friend.

This is like when a member of my group talks about her other book clubs. I don't know if I'm talking about it, but don't bring it up with me. I'm right here. As of February 2020, we start getting the next coronavirus conspiracy theory, which is did you hear about the super bug thing? Were you tracking this at all? No, at this point in the pandemic, here's what I remember. I remember really, really smart, thoughtful people that I know, believing utterly banana stuff.

Like, I remember having a conversation with someone I know who has a doctorate who was like, I heard that if you can hold your breath for 15 seconds, you definitely don't have it. Dude, that was, I was going to read this to you. That was like a big one. That was like a random Facebook post by basically just this random lady. She's like, stand for scientists or something. And then of course, somebody contact Stanford and they're like, what the fuck? No, we never said this. No, this fully made up.

People were so hungry for like, this is really scary. I've never experienced anything like it before. What will give me a sense of comfort is some ability to at the very least know if I'm carrying this thing. Totally, totally. So on February 2nd, there's a preprint non-peer reviewed, basically just like a random post on a website that looks scientific by these researchers that say they've sequenced the COVID virus. And it has a bunch of similarities to HIV.

Fuck. The server is retracted within two weeks, but this then results in a wave of articles, one of which this is on Joseph Mercolas website. He says, is SARS-CoV-2 a chimera virus built from HIV, flu, and SARS? As ever, question mark. Could it, would it, can it be? Really instills confidence. There's also some weird shit with Russian propaganda, start saying that it's named the coronavirus because Donald Trump used to put crowns on mis-America contestants. What's that?

It's a fake, after Donald Trump. What's happening? It doesn't even make fucking sense. But I call. I don't. I love the conspiracy theories that other countries believe because it's so easy to look at other countries and be like, well, that's obviously their own weird cultural baggage. Right. You don't believe cultural baggage, too. Yeah. Other countries haven't wrong, but adrenal chrome. Yeah, exactly. Just asking questions. So that's January and February. It's like, lab leak, super bug shit.

March of 2020 is when we get the first wellness conspiracies. And I wanted to talk about this one because this is one that I fell for. Uh-oh. One of the things I always try to convey to people who listen to the show is that we are not special. Like you, you can host a fucking podcast dedicated to debunking health misinformation and fall for health misinformation. Yeah. Like when I was sick for like essentially all of 2024, I fell for the dumbest shit. I was ordering like cherry tree extract.

Not bark. I don't even know what a fucking extract is. But I saw literally a random tweet of like, I used to have a cold and then I took this shit. I was like, immediately like a new tab, Amazon.com. It was like nine bucks. Like, yeah, fuck it. Why not? Right. This is what they also say about people who enter into cults, right? Is that it's not like a kind of person. It's a person in a kind of state.

It's also important to me to show a little bit of grace to people who, you know, quote unquote, fall for these things despite having to knowledge. Like me, don't yell at me for living the creeper. The emails that we're going to get are not yelling at you for ordering the tree bark. The emails that we're going to get are going to be like, actually, it works really well. How dare you? That's true. That's true. I know. I'm being like, make sure to be nice, but maybe we're too nice. I don't know.

So March 11th of 2020, the WHO declares a pandemic. On March 13th, we get the emergency declaration. The day after the emergency declaration, we get a article in the Lancet by a bunch of doctors who basically were looking at the data coming out of the hospitals in China. And they notice that of the patients who were hospitalized with COVID, 30% of them had hypertension and 12% had diabetes. And that's sort of slightly higher than it is in the population like higher than you would expect.

And so they write this article saying, you know, we know that when people have these conditions, one of the things they typically take is ibuprofen. And there is some evidence that for other respiratory illnesses, taking anti-inflammatories can actually reduce the activity of your immune system. And so it's worth looking into where are these patients taking anti-inflammatories? It says in the article, if this hypothesis were to be confirmed, it could lead to a conflict regarding treatment.

It's just purely speculative. These are not people in China. These are not people who are working with COVID patients. They're just like, hey, people should know like this might be at play. Yeah. But then of course, this gets taken up by random people and says bouncing around online as like, don't take ibuprofen. Yeah. And so this ends up getting tweeted out by a French doctor who's like a Instagram influencer or something, something.

He's like, we know ibuprofen is associated with worse COVID outcomes, which is not true. And then it gets taken up by the French minister of health who says taking anti-inflammatory drugs could be an aggravating factor for the infection. If you have a fever, take paracetamol. That becomes a Reuters article that says France warns against use of anti-inflammatory drugs to tackle coronavirus. And then there's a press conference at the WHO about something else.

And at the end of the press conference, somebody asked, hey, have you heard about this anti-inflammatory ibuprofen thing? This is from another Reuters article. It says, asked about the study. WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeyer told reporters in Geneva that UN Health Agency's experts were looking into this to give further guidance. In the meantime, we recommend using rather paracetamol and do not use ibuprofen as a self-medication. That's important.

So, this is like an off-the-cuff answer by their press guy. But this gets reported as the WHO says, don't take ibuprofen. I mean, I think this is another place where you're like the social and sort of psychological ends of this comes into play, which is, mm-hmm. People don't want to be the person who's wrong or the person who's behind the times. And also, this was my logic too, I like, I take ibuprofen for my wack little skeleton all the time.

And I was like, yeah, fuck it all, switch to Tylenol or just like not take anything. And like, it's such a low stakes thing. Sure. Why'd you put down your bag of Doritos? Exactly. Yeah. But then I think one thing that's interesting about this is the relationship between the sort of institutions of public health and these conspiracy theories that run around. This really isn't, I don't know if I would even call this a conspiracy theory. It's more like just false information that goes around.

And it's like, I don't think that the actual institutions of public health were like as prepare for this as they should have been. Right. You would hope that the French health minister and the WHO would have a higher threshold than like your aunt, Susan, sharing things on Facebook. This gets debunked a couple days later, the WHO puts out better guidance. They're like, actually, we don't really know. This is like super hypothetical.

It might turn out to be true later, but right now we can't really say anything. It sort of added to this sense at the time that there's just so much stuff going around. Everybody, including me, probably should have been more careful about being like, make sure you don't take ibuprofen. I was like texting friends. I was like, if you're taking ibuprofen, don't take it. You're a super spreader, but of incorrect information. This episode is a call out of myself. Yeah. Oh, buddy.

So the rest of this episode, we are going to talk about three of the major COVID conspiracies. So to start off with the drug Ivermectin, this is a anti-parasite medication that actually came up. I don't remember if we cut this or not, but in our worm wars episode, when you read about like deworming kids in sub-Saharan Africa, Ivermectin is one of the drugs that they use. It's very cheap. It is very effective at killing parasites.

There's an extremely funny section in RFK Juniors book where he writes like an ode to Ivermectin. He's like, there are statues built to the inventors of Ivermectin. And it won the Nobel Prize in 2015. And all this is totally true. But if you're someone who's interested in like anti-parasite stuff, Ivermectin really is like kind of a wonder drug. It's really fucking cool. But the question isn't whether Ivermectin is like good or not, like in general?

Yeah, chemotherapy is good, but it doesn't cure back pain. We're not talking about these things in general. We're talking about them as treatments for specific conditions. There is a longstanding theory that Ivermectin can actually also work for viruses. So this had kind of been bouncing around, but it was like relatively small scale. On April 3rd of 2020, we get a study of the blast COVID in a P3 dish with Ivermectin. And it kills the COVID. They do these things.

It's like a super duper, duper preliminary way of understanding whether a treatment works. Extremely rudimentary. I don't want to be mean, but like one of the villains that we've identified on the show over and over again is the press releases from university communications departments. With the caveat that science communications is hard. Yes, super, super hard. For this very preliminary study, we get a press release titled possible coronavirus drug identified.

Ivermectin stops SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture. And then the first paragraph of the press release is a new study has shown that an anti-paracidic drug already available around the world can kill the virus within 48 hours. Scientists found that a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop SARS-CoV-2 growing in cell culture. The next steps are to determine the correct human dosage, ensuring the dosage is shown to effectively treat the virus in vitro are safe for humans.

So this does say very clearly, like this is in a cell culture, but also it sounds pretty promising. Yeah, but the problem with this kind of study is basically the amount. To get the amount of Ivermectin that would be equivalent to the amount that they used in this Petri dish. I've seen different numbers.

One of them says you would have to ingest around 2.5 pounds of Ivermectin. 2.5 pounds is so much and it just makes me, for some reason, what that conjured for me was that Jessica Seinfeld cookbook where she's like, just blend up broccoli and put it in your kids mac and cheese. Oh, was this a lady who was like, hey, here's how you hide vegetables in your kids' food? Yeah. And I'm just thinking about how much you would have to sneak in 2 pounds of Ivermectin.

It's a milkshake, but it's just a giant tube of Ivermectin attached to the straw thicker than usual. That's right. One of the things that is so frustrating about these things is like, this is part of science working normally. And you don't want to say something like, we shouldn't publish cell culture studies because that's how we fucking nuts, right? You want all this information to be public. But immediately this then becomes, did you know?

It's just like cheap and easy drug and like, you can take it and it kills the coronavirus. Like, that's how it is processed. And so throughout May, we start getting observational studies where they start giving people Ivermectin, right? It's like, it's readily available. It's generic. So, actually, I'm going to send this to you. Ooh, reading time, story time. So there's a very good scientific article with just kind of a timeline of like the rise in fall of Ivermectin. So that this is from that.

On May 2nd, Dr. Chang published a preprint of an observational case study of seven patients showing improvement and resolution of fever within 48 hours and a 100% recovery. On May 19th, an Indian newspaper wrote about an observational trial by Alam et al in Bangladesh with 60 patients treated with a combination of Ivermectin and Doxascycline recovering within four days. So the problem with these observational studies, all of which appear to be true and accurate, right?

Basically that most people recover from COVID. Fatality rate of COVID is roughly 1%. Yeah. So if you take any group of people and they get COVID, most of them are going to recover. You could say like they got apple slices and they recovered from COVID. Yeah, the ones who picked the apples with an Elmo sticker on it.

Yeah. recovered. Yeah. So I did not know this before I started researching this, but throughout May and June of 2020, a huge number of developing countries started adopting Ivermectin as like a treatment protocol. Peru. Bangladesh, Honduras, all over the place. People are reading these studies and they're like, well, fuck it. I mean, Ivermectin is like very readily available, especially in the developing world. It's like, we have like buckets of this stuff available.

So like, we might as well start giving it to people. Boy, boy. So throughout 2020, there's just more spread of Ivermectin. And more of these observational studies are coming out. Randomized control trials take a long time. So those don't really start showing up. There's a couple, but they like really small numbers of patients. So we don't really even know anything all we have is these observational studies. We then get it taken up by the American right.

So in November of 2020, there's a Wall Street Journal editorial called Too Much Caution is Killing COVID Patients. Oh, no. Too many doctors have interpreted the term evidence-based medicine to mean that the evidence for treatment must be certain and definitive before it can be given to patients. I know.

Because accusing a physician of not being evidence-based can be a career-damaging allegation, fear of straying from the pack has prevailed, favoring inertia and inaction amid uncertainty about COVID-19 treatments. Creating high-risk patients with COVID-19 at home using safe medications is the most promising public health strategy for preventing hospital overcrowding and death. These treatments are widely available and can be combined with other measures.

What Americans need in this crisis is clear-eyed policy inspired by imagination and a genuine desire to protect the vulnerable rather than fueled by fear or partisan political agendas. I know. And then it just immediately became fueled by partisan agendas, right? What's so frustrating about this is the medical establishment at this point is actually, if you look at the fact, it's being quite responsible, right? They are testing. Ivermectin. A number of trials are going on.

These observational studies are being published and doctors are giving Ivermectin to their patients. Some of them are like, yeah, this is promising. Let's give it to people. And so all of the things that these Wall Street Journal editorial writers claim to want is happening. But they're immediately casting it as like, this works and the medical establishment won't give it to you. Neither one of those two facts are true. This also is ascribing quite a bit of intent here.

We need clear-eyed policy inspired by imagination and genuine desire to protect the vulnerable. Once again, I think of the Mr. Show sketch that's unlike other grocery stores, you'll never find a rat in our store. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The implication here is our policy is bad. It's not clear-eyed. Right. I would actually argue at this point in the pandemic is like, when we had the most clear-eyed policy.

This is such a good point that you bring up because they're asking for something clear-eyed, which again, it's like, that's an emotional statement. We all wanted clarity. But clarity was not available in fucking November of 2020. At this point, we didn't even know if you could fucking get COVID twice. They're like, we need something that cares about the vulnerable.

And it's like, well, caring with the vulnerable is not just fucking spamming people with like, don't take ibuprofen, do take ivermectin. We didn't know anything. You have to wait until you have some fucking certainty. And the fact is that that just takes time. Right. I mean, I think we've talked about this a fair amount with weight loss studies, right?

But like, there's got to be a level of acknowledgement from researchers around weight loss that their research will get introduced into a context where people are going to figure out how to monetize it as quickly as possible. And people are going to take it as much more declarative than it necessarily is. Exactly. And I think the COVID stuff is similarly like, we ignore the social and political and economic landscape at our own peril, right? Most people are afraid of dying most days.

I suspect many, many, many people who were researching this and were doing psychoms on it were really concerned about treading really carefully. Well, this actually brings us to the third and most disparaging factor behind why ibuprofen became such a big deal. So alongside the good faith observational studies and the bad faith uptake of this myth by the American right, we also have a lot of straight up faith. Studies.

So in the months after the Wall Street Journal editorial, we get a randomized control trial out of Egypt that shows a 90% reduction in death rates from Ivermectin. We also get a study out of Brazil showing a 70 to 85% reduction in deaths. And like, these are both a huge deal at the time. These are effects roughly on par with the vaccine, right? And eventually people circle back and find out that both of these studies essentially could not have happened.

So it all starts to unravel when a master's student basically just a random guy looks back at the introduction to the Egyptian study and finds that it's almost entirely plagiarized. And then there's a whole like weird back and forth.

I talked to one of the researchers who like worked on this where they reached out to the authors of the Egyptian study and were like, we look at your data and they were like, you can't have our data, but then it turns out it was like uploaded on some server and they paid 10 bucks and they got it was like whole thing. But eventually they got the data, the raw data from this Egyptian study. And once they start looking into it, they notice that it's like really, really fishy.

So they find, first of all, that of the 600 patients in the study, 410 of them have an age that is an even number. They also notice that in the data sheets, a lot of the numbers are actually letters. So instead of zero, it uses the letter O. And then they start noticing like weird date things. So like obviously the way these studies work is you start tracking people on January 1st or whatever and you track them for six months and you're like, how many people died?

A lot of the deaths of the patients are from before the study started. Okay. The Brazilian study falls apart in the same way. People look through their data and there's just a bunch of like weird discrepancies, like way too many people have zeros and fives at the end of their basic demographic, like height and weight data. There's a really good post from our friend, Health Nerd. It's a very good substack about like various health statistics.

And he did a three part series on like how the hell did so many people believe that Iver Mectin was this miracle cure? He says, Iver Mectin literature contains a staggering volume of scientific fraud, not mistakes or oversights or gilded lilies fraud. My sincere opinion is that at least a third of the evidence supporting the use of Iver Mectin as a COVID-19 therapeutic is not just based on shaky data, but consistent studies that may never have happened at all.

It feels like we're having more and more stories of this, right? Like that story about the Alzheimer's researcher and the lying researchers who lied. There's just a lot of it and it's a deeply troubling little mini trend. There's a good article in The Atlantic by James Heathers who is one of the people who does this kind of forensic analysis of statistics. And he says, you know, part of it is understandable in the early in the pandemic.

It was just like, let's fucking throw everything that could work at the wall. Some bad studies are going to get through in a context like that. This isn't really anybody's fault, but it's like the entire process of peer review is of course unpaid, right? And reviewers have to take the data at face value, right? It's like according to the data that you have in your paper, is this methodology sound? Is your analysis sound? Did you do the statistics, right? Et cetera.

They don't have the resources to check. Is your data fucking fake? I mean, I feel like what you're pointing to is a systems gap, right? Yeah. Not an individual, not a failing of individual responsibility of people who are reviewing these studies, not a whatever, but just like we actually don't have a system to handle all this thing. Right. I mean, it's a thing. It's like so much of this is just a basic resources gap.

You know, as we move forward into a world where everyone can say anything at any time on the internet for free, all of these institutions really have to double down. On like, if you read this in the Lancet or wherever, it is true. It is fact checked.

And like be transparent about the processes that go into these things, dedicate huge resources to, yeah, double and triple checking these things, especially if we're talking about something like Ivermectin where it's like, right in the middle of a once in a century pandemic, a study that indicates, hey, this is the cure. Of course, people are going to take that up and start taking fucking Ivermectin. Did this lead to an Ivermectin shortage?

Not exactly, but it did lead to an outbreak of horse, paste, slurping. So based on that and the right wing basically taking this up is like, well, we know it cures COVID. We have this huge spike in prescriptions. So before the pandemic, there were around 4,000 prescriptions of Ivermectin per week. At the peak of this myth in August of 2021, there were 40,000 prescriptions per week. So a 10 fold increase. Yeah. Ivermectin is typically a pill, just like a normal ass pill.

You can also get it as like a cream that you use for headlights. But very importantly, for what comes next, Ivermectin is also a treatment for animals. Animals have parasites. They take a version of Ivermectin. And because animals cannot swallow giant ass pills, this is usually given as like a paste or what is called a drench, which is like they stick a tube down the cows stomach and like pump it with Ivermectin.

And so what starts happening when people can't get prescriptions for Ivermectin from their doctor is they then go to pet stores or like animal feed stores. And they get animal Ivermectin, which appears to be roughly the same formulation. However, there's not like a suggested dosage or there is one, but it's like for a horse. So people didn't know how much Ivermectin to be taken. So this is when you started getting these reports of like poisonings, deaths.

And so in September of 2021, we get a Rolling Stone article that goes mega viral. Oh, I'm going to send this to you. The rise in people using Ivermectin, an anti-paracidic drug usually reserved for dewarming horses or livestock as a treatment or preventative for COVID-19 has emergency rooms, quote, so backed up that gunshot victims were having hard times getting access to health facilities and emergency room doctor in Oklahoma said.

This week, Dr. Jason McElay told KFR the overdoses are causing backlogs in rural hospitals, leaving both beds and ambulance services scarce. Quote, the ERs are so backed up that gunshot victims were having hard times getting to facilities where they can get definitive care and be treated. All of their ambulances are stuck at the hospital waiting for a bed to open so they can take the patient and they don't have any. That's it.

There's no ambulance to take the call. There's no ambulance to come to the call. So this ceded a huge discourse of like right wingers falling for this misinformation bullshit and getting poisonings and like basically backing up emergency rooms to the point where people with actual COVID couldn't fucking get in, right? The curve was unflatting. However, this is false. When you actually like get into the guts of the story, this is basically an anecdote from a random guy.

A couple of weeks later, Rolling Stone adds what I consider to be a super chicken shit correction to this. Here's this. The doctor is affiliated with a medical staffing group that serves multiple hospitals in Oklahoma. Following widespread publication of his statements, one hospital that the doctor's group serves, NHS Sequoia, said its ER has not treated any Ivermectin overdoses. And that it has not had to turn away anyone seeking care.

This and other hospitals that the doctor's group serves did not respond to requests for comment and the doctor has not responded to requests for further comment. So basically, there's no fucking evidence that what this guy is saying is true. We tried to check it and we can't confirm it. But they left the fucking story up. This is again, this feels like the challenge of not acknowledging the sort of like social and psychological parts of what's happening during this time, right?

Because in addition to people on the ground just seeking comfort, so are reporters, so are doctors, so are like everybody is looking for some sense of comfort and stability. And I think that's also probably part of how this stuff gets out there. It's part of how this stuff gets printed in the first place. Like it is a form of comfort to have someone to point to and go, this is actually your fault. This, this, quote, unquote conspiracy theory is a good example of this is false, right?

They were never backing up hospitals. The hospitals were not full of people who were taking horse pace, but this is a version of something that is true. So before the pandemic, it appears there were roughly 500 cases of Ivermectin poisoning throughout the United States every year. And in 2021, there were roughly 2000. So there was a fourfold increase.

There were at this time two deaths in New Mexico, a people that just took way too much Ivermectin mostly because it was like this livestock dosage and their kidneys failed and they died. So that's actually true, right? These poisonings were happening, but it's also very important to point out that most of the poisonings were like relatively minor. People had like gastrointestinal stuff or like they felt shitty for a couple days. Ultimately, they were fine.

The kind of normal dose of Ivermectin, like what you would take if you needed it for anti-parasite anti-scabies is like totally safe. And like people were going to livestock stores and getting animal doses of Ivermectin. That was happening, but on nowhere near the scale, then it seemed like if you were kind of around social media at the time. At one point, the FDA puts out a tweet from its official account that says, you are not a horse, you are not a cow, seriously, y'all stop it.

I really object to the FDA doing this. Both. Intrinsing the idea that this was happening on a much larger scale than it was and for like mocking the people who were doing that. There was also some true Gremlin behavior on the left around this stuff, which was making fun of people who had died taking good faith efforts to protect themselves and people around them. Or who believed what they were told? Who believed what they were told?

Yeah. If you're looking for a villain there, it is very clearly like this bizarro wall street journal piece is very clearly the like extreme spread on Fox News and through the right wing chip, like there are villains to be had here. It's not the people who died.

So just to sum up the research on Ivermectin, we're not going to go into it in great detail because it's basically just a bunch of studies finding the same thing, but it's been very well established by now that Ivermectin does not do anything for COVID. Yeah. But then what's weird is, I think this is another thing of like the difference between the sort of the way that the left deals with misinformation, the way that the right deals with misinformation is that nothing gets debunked over there.

If anything, it gets, I don't know, re-bunked. What's the opposite? Double-bunked like summer campers. They've moved on to kind of putting aside the merits of Ivermectin and blaming the CDC and whoever L Fauci for like shutting down the debate. So as recently as July 2023, the Wall Street Journal has another op-ed called COVID censorship proved to be deadly.

And it's like, oh, we couldn't even debate Ivermectin. And then in September, they published an article called Court to FDA, Stop Playing Doctor. This is an article about a lawsuit by doctors who said that the FDA should not have authority to tell doctors not to prescribe something. Right? It's this like fucking airbuds strategy. Right? Who doesn't say the rules that a dog can't play basketball? It's like, it doesn't say in the rules that the FDA can tell you not to fucking prescribe something.

They're trying to remove the FDA's authority to do this on the basis that these are some doctors that prescribed Ivermectin and then their reputation suffered damage because the FDA was like, hey, don't do that. But like, yeah, you're prescribing something that doesn't work. It's extremely goofy and also what a bleak time we're in. Yeah, but I think that's really it.

I feel like one of the central dynamics of this bleak time is we are inundated with messages that look like they are fulfilling a scientific purpose, but they're actually fulfilling an emotional purpose. Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. And oftentimes like the people delivering them and the people receiving them don't actually understand the purpose that they're serving, right? Like they don't know what emotional state they're in.

Do you ever have those things where you're like about to snap at someone and you're like, I'm not mad, I'm just hungry. Halt. Have we talked about Halt? No. Hungry, angry, lonely, tired. Oh. You're yelling at somebody. Yeah. Are you hungry? Are you angry? Are you lonely? Are you tired? I think as I would add one thing to that, I think as we look into the pattern of COVID conspiracies, I think we should change that to hungry, angry, lonely, tired, cryptocurrency.

Those are the reasons why people fall for misinformation. Halt. Okay. Uh, Aubrey, that was Ivermectin. Boy, that was one. That was one, I know. I apologize. It's because I had like months to prepare this. Or bravely answering the question, is there too much research? Is that okay? This is okay. This one is going to be shorter because it follows a very similar trajectory to Ivermectin. So are you ready to talk about hydroxychloroquine? I have never been more ready.

First of all, hydroxychloroquine. Again, it's a good drug. It's a malaria medication. It's for lupus. There's other kinds of things that it treats. It's like it is good at treating those conditions. Straight forward. Let me send you RFK juniors. I can't help myself. Let me send you RFK juniors a little ode. He does these little oeds to the drugs. And it's like, yeah, man, they're good drugs. I really like that RFK juniors in this episode is like clippy.

Yeah. It looks like you're trying to take Ivermectin. It looks like you're copying a link to a journal out of contact. Yes, it does. Hydroxychloroquine is a 65 year old formula that regulators around the globe long ago approved as both safe and effective against a variety of illnesses. A variety of illnesses. Hydroxychloroquine is an analog of the quinine found in the bark of the tree that George Washington used to protect his troops from malaria.

For decades, WHO has listed hydroxychloroquine as an essential medicine, proven effective against a long list of ailments. It is a generally benign prescription medicine far safer than many popular over the counter drugs. You mock hydroxychloroquine. You're mocking George Washington. This is an essential medicine. Aubrey, did you know it's essential to the founding fathers? It's so fucking funny to me that he does this with every single drug.

It's like, yeah, man, if you have a thing that hydroxychloroquine treats, it's great. There's also some reason to believe that it might work for various other respiratory conditions. Again, there's like various academic journal articles. The first time this came to the public's attention was on March 13, 2020.

So we're rewinding to the beginning of the pandemic again when we have a tweet from James Tadaro MD that says there's a growing evidence of chloroquine as a highly effective treatment for COVID-19 in a collaborative effort. Gregory Ragnar, Johns Hopkins, Thomas Broker, PhD, Stanford, and I explore chloroquine as a treatment slash prophylactic to treat and prevent coronavirus. And with this tweet, he also includes a link to a Google Doc. I am about to send you.

I'm looking at a document and the headline is an effective treatment for coronavirus COVID-19. It's all in the typewriter font. Career. Like the font is like, you're reading something very like technical. We're not going to dress it up. The executive summary right up top is recent guidelines from South Korea and China report that chloroquine is an effective antiviral therapeutic treatment against coronavirus disease 2019.

Use of chloroquine tablets is showing favorable outcomes in humans affected with coronavirus including faster time to recovery and shorter hospital stay. US CDC research shows that chloroquine also has strong potential as a prophylactic preventative measure against coronavirus in the lab. And then maybe have a scroll down and just tell me what you see. They're talking about treatment guidelines from South Korea.

I mean, they're basically showing that like in South Korea, they're giving this to patients already. They're talking about treatment guidelines from China. Same. They've got some graphs. Same. There's a section that is one short paragraph and the header is the UK has banned the export of chloroquine. This is basically applying that like the UK knows how effective it is. And that's why they're like keeping it to themselves.

This document is the only document that I have seen or person that I have heard argue that like, you know, who really had a lock on COVID, Boris Johnson. Yeah, that guy had it down path. I have red blood chunks of this. It's like they're really leaning into jargon a little bit further down.

It says the cell surface expression of under glycosylated ACE2 and its poor affinity to SARS-CoV-S spike protein may be the primary mechanism by which infection is presented by drug pretreatment of cells prior to infection. It has the vibe of high school paper where you keep using words like the SLE. Yeah. 14 point font.

Both of us are so trained to like get triggered by this kind of shit because actual science communication is so hard and typically if you're really trying to educate someone on something, you put things in the most simple, the most direct way possible. But if you're trying to obscure the truth and convince somebody of something for which there's not great evidence, you do extra jargon. The vibe of this paper is it's a science thing. You wouldn't understand. Totally.

So this is tweeted out by James Tadaro MD on March 13th. This starts bouncing around like Silicon Valley Twitter. A particularly cursed corner of an extra cursed website. Within three days it is tweeted by Elon Musk. Oh fucking god. On the same day one of the authors of this document Greg Ragono shows up on the Laura Ingram show on Fox News. And he says hydroxychloroquine can quote, just get rid of the virus completely.

March 18th we get an editorial in the Wall Street Journal that says these drugs are helping our coronavirus patients. The evidence is preliminary on repurposing two treatments, but we don't have the luxury of time, which basically saying let's give this to everybody because there's some preliminary evidence that it works. By March 19th, this is less than a week after this random tweet by this random guy with a random Google doc. Donald Trump says. Hydroxychloroquine we're looking into it.

We think that it works. Good lord. This is a trajectory that like the public kind of knows, right? It's like public on March 13th, president by March 19th. We're going to rewind again. The actual origin of this is not on March 13th. It is on March 11th. The question is how did this guy find out about hydroxychloroquine? This conversation is no longer available. It appears on Twitter. But this begins with this guy James D'Aaro and Gregory Regano, the two authors of this Google doc.

They were apparently chatting on Twitter back and forth like, what are the treatments going to be for COVID, right? Just sort of speculating. These guys don't have a ton of followers. There's kind of like chatting back and forth. Then a third person comes into the conversation. This guy's name is Adrian By and according to various sort of post hoc descriptions of this, he says chloroquine will keep most people out of hospital. The US hasn't learned about that yet.

This is one of his replies to them. Then he starts linking them to the South Korean creeping protocols, the Chinese creeping protocols, the UK stuff. So that's the actual origin of this. After this goes to Donald Trump and starts getting much more attention like, what is this hydroxychloroquine thing that fucking president is talking about that came from two guys on Twitter. People obviously start looking into the fucking two guys on Twitter.

So the number one dude who tweeted this and it sort of went viral, James Tadaro MD, it is true that he has a medical degree graduated from Columbia University. It's also true that it doesn't appear he was ever a practicing doctor. He, even before he graduated from medical school, he founded a cryptocurrency. That's been fun. It's really remarkable to me that we haven't had more crypto bros appear on this show. That's because I refuse to learn what cryptocurrency is.

There's so much other bullshit I would look into for this show. I'm drawing the fucking line. Mike, I've got good news. There are some videos of a white lady who's now in prison wrapping about what crypto is. So I'm going to send that to you. Don't worry about it. There always is a video of a white lady wrapping. Razzle con. And then so that's James Tadaro. He's basically more of a crypto guy than a doctor guy. Then we get to Gregory Regano, the dude who went on Fox News.

This is a list of his credentials from a right up in the Daily Mail. Oh, no. The second word is falsely. Yeah, there's a daily lot of falsely. Regano falsely claimed to be an advisor to Stanford University School of Medicine. He also falsely claimed to have consulted with the University of Alabama at Birmingham. He also previously set up a cryptocurrency firm, which he said was, quote, designed to cheat death on the block. It all happens on the blockchain.

Dailymail.com has made repeated attempts to contact Regano a 34 year old lawyer from Melville, Long Island, who lists being an eagle scout on his resume. He uses his parents home as his address. I'm like, that's my favorite shit. He's one of those millennials who's trying to kill the housing market. Plenty of people live with their parents when they're 30 and like, in principle, I don't really give a shit, but it's so fucking funny that the Daily Mail lists all this other stuff.

Like he says he's with Stanford, but he's not really, I mean, at the end, they're like, lives with his parents. Yeah. Just so you know, he uses his parents address. Oh, he lived with the moms, though. Then people start looking into the third guy. Remember, there was this extra random dude who, like, came into their mentions and was like, Hey, here's the like South Korean treatment protocols. His name is Adrian By. Mm-hmm. And you send you a description.

By also appears to repeatedly engage with bigoted ideology and far right extremists. Shocking twist, wrong start. Right when politics and crypto bros. By has repeatedly tweeted anti-Semitic ramblings has replied to white nationalists such as Richard Spencer and once tweeted a link to an Australian website that has promoted Holocaust denial. In one thread, he complained about Jews taking over quote, major power centers and speculated about quote, Jewish verbal IQ. What are these people reading?

What does that even mean? While asking if another user had quote, even red mine comp. Yeah, you're talking about you haven't read it. Do you even live, bro? Have you read mine comp? Just Christ. He has stated quote, my hobby is researching Jews. It is very enjoyable. Holy fuck. You're out here saying this guy's anti-Semitic when his hobby is researching Jews and he loves it. He just wants to know more about the culture.

After all this stuff comes out, having to do those contacts, Adrian Bymes, like you have this history of like sort of promoting anti-Semitic rhetoric online, what's the deal? This is the best defense I've ever seen. Take notes. Well, everybody take notes. I'm not a white nationalist, not at all. I have a lot of friends who are and I like white nationalists, but I'm not one. Like them. I learned from them because there's important ideas there that we need to understand.

I'm not a white nationalist. I just have a lot of friends who are white nationalists. I like them and I agree with their ideas. Yeah, but how dare you call me a white nationalist? I'm not a white nationalist. I'm just a big fan. So we're not going to get too into details, but this follows basically the same fucking trajectory as I've ever seen. I've ever mectin, right? It doesn't fucking matter that it comes from crypto-brows.

It doesn't fucking matter that it was seeded by like a rank white supremacist, right? After Trump talks about it, we then get... There's different numbers, but according to a media matters report between March 23rd and March 29th. So one week Fox News has 146 mentions of hydroxychloroquine as a potential treatment. Holy shit. Keep in mind that there's no actual evidence at this point.

It's literally just China's using it and South Korea's using it, but they don't know that much more about COVID than we did at that point. Nobody fucking knew anything. Well, I think this also fits into a far right viewpoint that we talked about a little bit in the bonus episode that we did on Tucker Carlson's The End of Men, right? The ball-titting show. Featured this whole monologue from a guy who just calls himself raw-egged nationalist. Oh, yeah.

It's all about like sort of gesturing at the quote unquote New World Order, right? Which is like a longstanding, straightforwardly anti-Semitic conspiracy theory. There was this overtone of like they want you docile and soft and they want you pliable and blah, blah, blah, blah. And asking people to do things like social distance, stay at home and wear masks. If you already believed that there was like a greater power trying to control your movements and all this sort of stuff, right?

This plays right into that kind of conspiratorial thinking for conspiracies that have been bouncing around on the far right for decades at this point. I will say one of the key differences between Ivermectin and Hydrasy Chloroquine is that as we said, Ivermectin is relatively safe, right? If you take it to the doses that most people take it at, it's basically fine. There aren't a lot of side effects. Hydrasy Chloroquine has very well documented side effects.

So if you have a heart condition, taking Hydrasy Chloroquine can be dangerous because they can cause extra like arrhythmias. And so if you have an existing heart condition, you shouldn't be taking this. This is like very well-known, very well documented. So it's not simply the case that like, let's just give this to everybody in America. And then we all won't get COVID.

It's like a lot of people are going to have problems if we start giving it to everybody willingly or people start lying to their doctors to get it because they think it's going to prevent COVID, right? So starting in April, we start getting preliminary reports that people who are put on Hydraxy Chloroquine are getting a much higher rate of heart conditions and are not seeing improvements from COVID.

Then in May, we have a study in the Lancet, which finds people who take Hydraxy Chloroquine have a higher death rate. So it might actually be the opposite. So I'm going to send you the first couple paragraphs of this. The authors of the paper pulled together results for more than 96,000 patients in 671 hospitals taking one of the drugs with or without an antibiotic. The death rate among all groups taking the drugs was higher than among people who were not given them.

One in six of those taking the drugs died while one in four died if they were on Hydraxy Chloroquine and an antibiotic. The death rate among patients not taking the drugs was one in 11. So almost twice as high. Boy, oh boy. This results in an avalanche of people pulling back recommendations. So earlier, the FDA had actually issued an emergency use authorization for Hydraxy Chloroquine like, yeah, why not? Start giving it to people. Whatever.

It seems to be relatively widely prescribed in June, just after this Lancet report is published. There's also a New England Journal of Medicine report. After these reports come out, the FDA pulls back that advice and is like, uh, we really shouldn't be giving us patients until we study it more. The WHO cancels its own trial.

So basically the entire medical establishment goes from this is a promising treatment to this is dangerous and you shouldn't be giving it to patients almost overnight, right? Mostly on the basis of this Lancet study. But the weird twist of this section is that that switch, that recommendation was based on fraudulent data. So this May 2020 Lancet report, if we look back, this Lancet report surveys 96,000 patients in 670 hospitals and finds that the death rate is much higher.

After this comes out, a huge number of researchers are like, wait a minute, how do they get data on 96,000 patients in May of 2020? So the way that this study worked is there is a company called Surgesphere, which is harder to pronounce than I dressy Chloroquine. This Surgesphere company gathered up data from all of these hospitals like this massive, basically created this massive database. And then researchers can kind of dive into it, slice and dice the data however they want.

And so the head of this Surgesphere company is listed as a co-author on a lot of the studies that start coming out using this massive trove of data, right? So somebody, it's not clear to me if it's an academic or a journalist, contacts one of the largest hospitals in New York City where a lot of the early patients would be. They're like, okay, how did you give your data? What format did you give your data over to Surgesphere and the hospital is like, who's Surgesphere? Somebody asks.

Surgesphere. Like, hey, sorry, do you mind giving us just like a list of the hospitals? Like we're trying to kind of double check this. And Surgesphere is like, no, we won't tell you which hospitals give us our data. Then people start looking into like the LinkedIn page and like online presence of fucking surgesphere. They're just researching Jewish people. Have you even read minecom? So this is from a Guardian overview of this.

It says, the company's LinkedIn page has fewer than 100 followers and last week listed just six employees, this was changed to three employees as of Wednesday. Until Monday, the Get in Touch link on Surgesphere's homepage redirected to a WordPress template for a cryptocurrency website. Raising questions about how hospitals could easily contact the company to join its database. And then the head of the company's last name is Dezi.

It says, Dezi has been named in three medical malpractice lawsuits unrelated to the Surges phere database. In 2008, Dezi launched a crowdfunding campaign on the website Indiegogo promoting a wearable next generation human augmentation device that can help you achieve what you never thought was possible. The device never came to fruition. What was it supposed to do? I think it's like Bionic Arms or something, Bionic Legs, like a jetpack edge of tomorrow's situation.

Listen, if it gets us another angel of Verdun, I'm afraid. I love that goddamn movie. This is kind of a fascinating thing, right? Because what we're debunking is not that hydroxychloroquine works. We're debunking the fact that hydroxychloroquine is dangerous. The fact that hydroxychloroquine doesn't cure COVID, all of those studies hold up. The data that hydroxychloroquine is dangerous and increases deaths, that's the part that's sketchy.

So I am going to make you read the section on this scandal from RFK Juniors book. This is about the messy process of retracting the Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine Studies that use this data. Both the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine finally withdrew their studies in shame.

Somebody at the very pinnacle of the medical cartel had twisted arms, kicked groins and stoved in kneecaps to force these periodicals to abandon their policies, shred their ethics, and spend down their centuries of hard one credibility in a desperate bid to torpedo hydroxychloroquine. To date, neither the authors nor the journals have explained who induced them to co-author and publish the most momentous fraud in the history of scientific publishing. Just tone it down, Robert.

I gotta say, centuries of hard one credibility. Et to the journal that published the Tuskegee syphilis studies. What is amazing to me about this is this is a scandal in which the scientific establishment worked. If there was a giant conspiracy, people would have looked at this and been like, oh, the date is bullshit. But it says that people shouldn't take hydroxychloroquine. So let's just leave it in the journals who fucking cares. The opposite of that happened.

Uh-huh. And I'm not saying that people in science never use their biases to guide their decisions about what studies they believe and what gets published obviously, right? But R.F.K. Junior is literally taking an example that disproves his thesis of a left-wing medical cartel trying to take down Donald Trump or conceal the truth, and he's casting it as evidence for the conspiracy. I do think we have to stop viewing retractions as failures. I know.

And more as an example of the system working well. The way that R.F.K. Junior presents himself in particular is I'm just looking at the facts and I've just been analyzing the data, but then is belied by language like the medical cartel had twisted arms, kicked groin, then it's designed to make you want to read more and it's designed to outrage you and sort of introduce a world view that will then carry you through to more conspiratorial thinking about more issues.

Ooh, speaking of weach, this brings us to our third COVID conspiracy. I'm trying to imagine is the third one just Adrenal Criffon? No, Aubrey, this at long last is our return circling back to the vitamin D truthers. Oh my. We said God, when was it even? It was like August. Michael, it's been more than half of a year. I know you haven't used your computer. I haven't. I just haven't searched for items on the internet on the off chance. You would run across some supplement news.

So we're actually going to start. This is like the section of R.F.K. Junior's book that made me want to do an episode on him as a reading of his book. I was like boring, boring, boring. And then I reached this and I was like, oh, this is a rich text. No, I'm just gonna use this. I was struck during COVID-19's early months that America's doctor apparently preoccupied with his single vaccine solution did little in the way of telling Americans how to bolster their immune response.

He's not about Fauci in case that isn't like super duper obvious. Side note, here's the neighborhood I live in. The number of like in our America signs is like out of control. Yeah, in this house. I have a neighbor whose standard poodle is named Fauci. Ooh, they went deep. That's the level we're at over here. R.F.K. would kick that dog. Actually, kick that dog.

He never took time during his daily White House briefings from March to May 2020 to instruct Americans to avoid tobacco, smoking and e-cigarettes, slash vaping, double death rates from COVID. He didn't tell them to get plenty of sunlight and to maintain adequate vitamin D levels. Note nearly 60% of patients with COVID-19 were vitamin D deficient upon hospitalization, nor did he tell them to diet, exercise and lose weight. 78% of Americans hospitalized for COVID-19 were overweight or obese.

He didn't recommend avoiding sugar and soft drinks, processed foods and chemical residues, all of which amplify inflammation, compromise immune response, and disrupt the gut biome which governs the immune system. During the centuries that science has fruitlessly sought remedies against coronavirus, aka the common cold, only zinc has poof, fucking goddammit. Only zinc has repeatedly proven its efficacy in peer-reviewed studies. We're not going to do zinc.

We're not going to do a whole fucking thing on zinc because I already looked at all the other shit. I'm just thinking about the Simpsons episode where they have a school film about zinc. And the guys having a nightmare about a world without zinc, and then you just see him tossing and turning and bed going, Zing, Zing, Zing, and his sleep. It's delightful. So what do you make of this? I don't know that Americans need further instruction to stop smoking.

This is also this bizarre, like forbidden wisdom thing that they always go back to. This one weird trick, doctors, don't want you to know. Yeah, and it's like the one weird trick they fucking tell you all the time. And the idea that the CDC, and even Fauci himself, was not telling people regularly to like diet and exercise and like get a balanced diet, like try to go outside. They were not prescribing this as a cure to COVID, obviously because none of those things work.

But the entire public health establishment is built around telling you this shit all the time. Don't smoke exercise. Yeah. Fruits and vegetables. Take the stairs. This is such a rich text because it's so ideological. Right, that it's like, well, when there's mass death going on, what if the people dying are just the wrong kind of people? It's like a very passive version of a style of logic that is very prevalent in eugenics, right?

Yes. Instead of engineering it, instead of creating social and political systems that guarantee that some people die off and don't reproduce, we're just going to sort of quietly allow that to happen and draw conclusions in public. Yeah, about the failings of the people who are dying. Some of this is like dense ideological rich text and some of this is just like America's poor public education system that people do not understand how virus is work.

Yep. You can make little connections, correlations, whatever wellness immune system find, but it's like taking zinc will not prevent a virus from like, it's a little like spike proteins like linking into your cells. That just isn't the way that it works, guys. Zinc! Zinc! This was my limit. I was like, I'm not doing the zinc stuff. I can't. I'm just going to assume that he's fucking lying. I'm not doing zinc. Interestingly, it's not zinc. It's terbium.

It's actually unobtainium. It's MaryAnne, Williamsand.com slash unobtainium. It's always an element. So to go back to the beginning of the vitamin D truthing, yeah. There's actually like a long history of bizarre hype around vitamin D, especially like taking vitamin D supplements. So there's a weird wave of vitamin D hype in the 2010s. I'm sending you a fucking cursed paragraph about this. This is from a New York Times article talking about the hype.

Dr. Mehmet Oz has described vitamin D as, quote, the number one thing you need more of, telling his audience that it can help them avoid heart disease, depression, weight gain, memory loss, and cancer. And Oprah Winfrey's website tells readers that, quote, knowing your vitamin D levels might save your life. Mainstream doctors have also urged Americans to get more of the hormone, including Dr. Walter Willett, a widely respected professor at Harvard Medical School.

This is a, this is like a reunion tour of like a new, new, new, new band. It's like, oh, the whole every previous episode of maintenance phase, they're all here. The boy genius of maintenance phase. Yeah. So like we've been having these overblown claims about vitamin D for like a very long time. There's a fascinating 2018 New York Times article about this one guy who wrote the book called the vitamin D solution. So I'm going to send you the first couple paragraphs of them.

Dr. Michael Hollocks' enthusiasm for vitamin D can be fairly described as extreme. The Boston University endocrinologist elevates his own levels of the stuff with supplements and fortified milk. When he bikes outdoors, he won't put sunscreen on his limbs. Sunscreen truth there. He has written book length oads to vitamin D and has warned in multiple scholarly articles about a quote vitamin D deficiency pandemic that explains disease and suboptimal health across the world.

His fixation is so intense that it extends to the dinosaurs. Love this. What if the real problem with that asteroid 65 million years ago wasn't a lack of food, but the weak bones that follow a lack of sunlight? Weak bones. Sometimes I wonder, Dr. Hollocks has written, did the dinosaurs die of rickets and osteomalasia? I think dinosaurs were getting enough outside time. I think dinosaurs were outdoors. Fairly frequently. They weren't inside on their PS5s.

Yeah. They're not going, it's a beautiful day out. It's also, it's so funny to me that he's like, you know, dinosaur, like, what if their bones were weakened due to lack of vitamin D? It's like, the bones are the only thing we have from the dinosaurs. That's literally all the evidence that dinosaurs have is the bones so we can very readily check the bones. I've never loved anything as much as I loved the last two sentences of that paragraph.

There's something very interesting in the vitamin D truthiness and COVID, in that just like Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, there's some plausible mechanism by which vitamin D could have actually prevented COVID or treated COVID. There's links to other respiratory illnesses and vitamin D levels tend to fall throughout the course of your life.

So there are some like super duper speculative early papers that are like, hey, this might be some of the reason why old people have such higher death rates. Again, this is all just very early scientific speculation. The vitamin D truth or narrative really ramps up in April of 2020 with an article called Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D, an Indonesian study.

So this is a study where they take 780 patients at a Indonesian hospital and just like they do with these other studies, they look through a huge database of everybody's characteristics of age, preexisting conditions, time of entry, time of discharge, etc. And they look at people who died and people who didn't die. And they're like, okay, what are the differences between these two people? They try and compare and contrast, right? Find some common threads that might link folks together.

And so when they look at the data directly, they find that people who have high vitamin D level, people who have enough vitamin D are a lot less likely to die. And then they start controlling for things like age, preexisting conditions and the association becomes even stronger. That's why so many people Florida just ignored mask mandates. Right. They were like as well as preventing asteroids. This also prevents COVID. I'm in.

So this paper, according to the later debunking of it, it's been viewed more than 100,000 times, downloaded more than 17,000 times, shared on social media 8,000 times. It's cited in the British Medical Journal. It is cited by, you know, there's this body as part of the NHS in the UK that does evidence reviews of like, what drugs are we going to cover? We're going to look at all the evidence. It's called nice. It's cited in a nice report on treatments for COVID-19.

It's of course cited in the daily mail and the sun and other popular newspapers. So like this paper very early in the pandemic is everywhere. And like people kind of like the ibuprofen thing, people are just like, well, fuck it. You might as well start supplementing vitamin D. Yeah. And like, we don't know shit about shit at this point in the pandemic, right? And like, people are desperate for some level of solution. Easy to reach for and many of us reached for.

The debunking of this article is like maybe the longest and most thorough thing we've ever had on this podcast. Really? This appears in an academic journal and it's like, I had to cut this down because it's just like, it's so repetitive. So listen, listen to this. So it says, the authors of the current paper are from Indonesia. We launched an independent investigation to look for their track record.

First, we performed a search in Google scholar, scopus and PubMed for any prior publications by the authors. We found no records. Second, we performed a search in the Indonesian Medical Doctor Council database and found none of the authors. Third, we searched using the Google search engine with their names. We did not find any related content. And then this goes on. It's like, fourth, we looked here. Fifth, we looked here. It's just like, we tried to find them here. We tried to find them there.

I asked my neighbor. I checked the hierarchy out. I yelled at my window. I opened my copy of Where's Waldo. And then they keep going. So then they start talking about the actual study. The authors did not mention the name of the hospitals or the number of hospitals and how they obtained the confidential data for their manuscript. At the time this paper was written, there were only two cases of confirmed COVID-19 in Sukamara Regency where the Sukamara Regional Public Hospital is located.

Vitamin D is not routinely checked in Indonesia. The collection method was retrospective, which is suspicious. And this keeps going. There's like four more paragraphs of this. I am a person who watches a fair amount of courtroom dramas, which are terrible representations of actual trial law because actual trial law sounds a lot like this. I am. Where it's like, you ask every single, possible question, permutation of a question, right? The thing is, I actually find this very chilling. Right.

This is being cited in the British Medical Journal and by the NHS and like, affecting policy. And no one fucking Googles the authors. Yeah. And it's all just fully, completely fabricated. Like the most fabricated shit. And also, someone made up authors. Someone made up an entire study. Yeah. You know, we talk a lot on the show about like the sort of bad incentives within science and like public health and all those structural stuff, like structural weaknesses. This is something else.

God. So people went out even at the time and it's like, oh, it's not peer reviewed, etc. But it's like in a fast moving deadly pandemic, you need to get information out as quickly as possible. Yeah. A lot of preprints during COVID turned out to be true and turned out to be really important. And so you don't want to have something where like every single thing during a deadly pandemic must be triple checked. Like that, that's not workable.

But also the problem with, especially these conspiracy narratives, is that there's like, there's so many bad faith actors out there. Yeah. Boy. Boy. There's a grifter who wants to sell some supplements or something who knows. It's just RFK Jr. in the like glasses with the nose and mustache. That is computer. Yeah. You don't need a disguise, Robert. Why are you doing this? Yeah. So anyway, this comes out in April of 2020. It's not debunked until a couple months later.

So there's this sort of what appears to be this trickle of information coming out that like vitamin D has some connection with like preventing COVID, preventing death from COVID. There's also a really interesting scientific debate about country correlations. So people start looking at like COVID case rates, COVID death rates, et cetera, and then correlating that with the vitamin D levels in the population.

And they find there's kind of the first paper is like, well, countries with higher vitamin D levels don't have as bad COVID outcomes. But then another paper comes out that controls for different things and they find no significant results. And then other papers come out controlling for other things and find a result again. And there's this really interesting debate throughout summer of 2020 about like, how to measure, how to do correlations like this, right?

Because there's all these theories about what affects COVID rates, right? We were at the time talking about temperature people were like, oh, when the summer comes, COVID won't be as bad. We were talking about population density, which didn't really pan out. We were talking about altitude was like another thing that people were throwing out. So it's like, you either get a relationship with COVID-19 and vitamin D or you don't. But we didn't know what to control for at the time.

Yeah, I mean, however you do it, it's gonna take more time than May 2020. Exactly. Yeah. So again, there's at this time in summer of 2020, there's some reason to believe vitamin D could be helpful for COVID, right? So on August 29th, 2020, we get the first randomized control trial that tests vitamin D and COVID outcomes.

It is called Jesus fucking Christ, effect of calcidial treatment and best available therapy versus best available therapy on intensive care unit and administration and mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19, colon, a pilot randomized clinical study. This is why guys, I read a study and it was called the cancer is caused by plastic or whatever. Like, no, it wasn't. It's basically don't read me. Yeah, they're daring you to read them. So this is a study of 76 patients in Spain.

At the end of the 50 patients treated with vitamin D, only one of them, so 2% ends up in the ICU, whereas in the control group, 50% ended up in the ICU. So 2% versus 50%, it's like, holy shit, this is a massive effect. I was looking around, because I was interested in like the sort of the spread of this paper and I was looking around at like, how was this framed at the time?

And I found this website called Root Claim, which like the Google Doc has the aesthetics of a like, we're just like non ideological, just objective people looking at data and trying to present you the data, like this kind of explainer website. It really looks like something very credible. This study obviously, you know, huge reduction death rate from vitamin D, this Root Claim website has a long blog post like dissecting it and it's such a masterpiece.

I just want to read you the headline and then it has like these little sections. So the headline is, vitamin D can likely end the COVID-19 pandemic. So this is a study of 76 patients, by the way. Sounds like science. I'm not gonna go through the whole thing, but these are the headers. Headline one, the sample size is small so the findings may be due to chance. Two, the control group included more people with risk factors.

Three, patients in both groups were also treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Four, the experiment was not double blind placebo controlled. Five, there may be another yet unidentified factor, summary. The findings are true. Summary, the findings are true. So I don't want to dunk on this random fucking website, but it's like, but I'm gonna. The information that people had access to was garbage, right? I think a lot of people in good faith were like, hey, is there anything to this?

And they find a website that is like, hey, we look into this stuff for you. You don't have time to do all this analysis, we're experts. And then it's just crank shit. It's like, this is a very small study. It's a study where they give people three different treatments. And so you can't really say that vitamin D does anything because they're also getting other treatments. The size of the effect is way too big, it's suspiciously big. And yet there's this massive hype cycle.

That's what scientific studies usually say, outright is. Exactly. Further investigation is required, especially with something that matters this much. So this is kind of bouncing around. The sort of, this doesn't really explode. I think it's very telling that the vitamin D truth or shit really blows up in spring of 2021, which is right when the vaccine comes out.

There's, I found this really fascinating study called Why Were Twitter Users Obsessed With Vitamin D during the first year of the pandemic? Hmm. Fucking great title. I love it. Straight to the point. That's what my study's about. They look at all these tweets and they include some excerpts of actual tweets that were going around at this time. So one of them says, actually let me send this to you because I like it when you do weird person voice. Do you? You're a cute one voice. Yes, maaam.

Have heard two different seasoned and previously reliable physicians state that they have never seen a COVID case in a person with adequate levels of vitamin D. So simple. There's so many, but this one is fun because it has some old caps. Masks don't work. Eat healthy, exercise, take vitamins, vitamin D, especially. It's proven to fit COVID. The spelling is not very well done. I don't wear a mask and guess what? I haven't gotten COVID. Can you even argue with that, Arbery?

Have you even read mine comp? Yeah. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. You need to not make that a thing that you start saying because people are going to think you're not being sarcastic. You're going to say it to somebody and they're like, whoo. I'm only listening. I'm only saying it in the context of the record for this episode. You said it to me earlier when we weren't recording. It's happening, Arbery. It's happening. I was recording. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

So this is, I mean, we're not going to go through the whole like debunking of this because it basically covers the same trajectory as Ivermectin and Hydroxychorchin. It's like, eventually RCTs start coming out because it takes a long time to do these. And it's like, it doesn't work. It doesn't work. It doesn't work. It's not bad for you. It's not terrible, whatever. But it's just like, there's no evidence that vitamin D does anything for COVID.

One of the other myths that you know, are of KJU and other people keep coming back to, is like, they don't want to tell you about vitamin D. And it's like, do you know how fucking happy everybody would have been if vitamin D cured COVID? People, including doctors, are never done yelling about vitamin D. It's not, no one doesn't want you to know about vitamin D. We're not going to belabor it, but basically, the consensus is that vitamin D does not prevent or cure COVID.

The twist, the big sort of reveal of the episode, though, is that vitamin D supplements probably don't work for anything else. What? So this whole thing, vitamin D osteoporosis, like you hear all these bone fractures and it prevents heart attacks that makes you live longer, or whatever. A lot of that is based on very small studies from the 1980s that essentially researchers have been trying to replicate ever since with larger studies and they don't replicate.

Study after study after study has been coming out for like decades now. Eventually, there's a international organization of medicine panel. 2011, they put together a 1100 page report on vitamin D and its links to all of these other conditions. This is from a New York Times article. It concluded that the vast majority of Americans get plenty of the hormone naturally and advise doctors to test only patients at high risk of certain disorders, such as osteoporosis.

So this thing where everybody needs to be supplementing with vitamin D, everybody needs to be testing for vitamin D. It does not appear to be the case. And there's been tons of other randomized control trials. There's one in 2018 that finds no evidence that it prevents heart attack or cancer. There's another one in 2019 that says it has no effect on cancer. There's a meta-analysis in 2022 that finds no effect.

There's eventually a editorial in the Journal of the American Medical Association that is about this latest study. It's called, I hate these obri, it's called vital. That's the acronym. But it's vitaminede and O-Meg-A-Trial. So it's the last letter of omega-3D. No, no. Also, if you take the vitamin D and omega-3 trial, if you just do the letters, it's V-dot. You could just be the V-dot study. I don't know why you have to do this thing. Where's the vital study?

Michael, that's the Virginia Department of Transportation and I think you know that. No, but come on. I put this online and everything's like, it's taken. Like we use acronyms for different things all the time, everybody. And someone who worked with both Black-led organizations working on police violence and people responding to the malware standoff. OK. BLM stands for two extremes. Thank you. It's the different thing. Why are you booing me? I'm right. I'm right.

I should have been the V-dot study. I'm booing me. I'm right. The Michael Hobbs story. So there's eventually this editorial in the Journal of the American Medical Association called Vital Findings. This is the findings from this V-dot trial. A decisive verdict on vitamin D supplementation. It says, what are the implications of vital?

The fact that vitamin D had no effect on fractures should put to rest any notion of an important benefit of vitamin D alone to prevent fractures in the larger population. Adding those findings to previous reports in vital and other trials showing the lack of an effect for preventing numerous conditions suggests that providers should stop screening for vitamin D levels or recommending vitamin D supplements. People should stop taking vitamin D supplements to prevent major diseases or extend life.

This is kind of going under the radar. I didn't really know this. I do take a vitamin D supplement. I probably honestly will continue taking one, because it's like five bucks for like a six month supply. It's really not that big of a deal. Doesn't appear to be like dangerous. Vitamin D is good, you should go outside. All that stuff is great, but like taking a supplement every day, it's not clear that doesn't even.

Boy, oh boy, as you were walking that through, I was like, this is so similar to the arc of calories and calories out. Ooh. Right, which is that Wichnowski paper that we talked about that came out in the 50s that was sort of like this many calories equals a pound of fat. And then people started studying it. They were like, it's way more complicated than that. Yeah. And it sort of lives on in people's minds as like an old Tridentrue saying, right?

Like people really continue to sort of believe it to their core. It's fascinating. The thing is, I want to circle back to this kind of wellness paradigm. One of the most persistent myths that you find in the sort of Joe Rogan podcasts and the wellness space or whatever is that vitamins are an alternative to big pharma. Right? So it's like, big pharma wants to keep you sick, so they can sell you medicine.

This guy, Michael Hollick, who is the vitamin D dinosaur truth or guy who we met earlier, he has a quote from this New York Times article where he says, drug companies can sell fear, but they can't sell sunlight. So there's no promotion of the Sun's health benefits. This is straight up raw egg nationalist bullshit. You can't patent an image.

Yes. We have got to get ourselves past the point of believing that like taking medication is being in collusion with big pharma or that it means submitting to being docile, it's a real disaster of a mindset and we just have got to get off of it. I will also say as well as being like problematic philosophically, it's also not true empirically. Yes. Great. Thanks, Mike. The vitamin supplement industry is a $40 billion a year industry.

The vitamin D industry, just vitamin D is a billion dollar industry. The vitamin D testing sector is also a fucking industry with like lobbyists and shit. You're not escaping from big business. You're swapping one form of big business for another. Yeah. When we are talking about the emotional appeal of these conspiracy theories, an extremely potent emotional appeal is the idea that you can very easily opt out of these systems that everybody knows are very unjust, right?

We're all participating in this form of capitalism and it's so fucking exploitative and indefensible and bad. And what they are selling you is this idea of like, oh, don't subscribe to the pharmaceutical companies. Well, what you're doing is just drinking in the sun's rays, but you're not. You're going to fucking wall greens and you're spending eight bucks on some vitamin D supplements. That's fine, right? But that is not a break from capitalism. That is not not supporting corporations. Right.

It is functionally, don't take those pills. Take these pills. It's literally these pills. It's literally a different set of pills. And also this guy, the dinosaur vitamin D guy in this, New York Times article, this is the subject of this New York Times article in 2017. They talk about how much money he is getting from supplement companies. He's getting $1,000 a month from like one, one like string of income.

He's also taking money from the indoor tanning industry, which because I kind of edit those places out and I'm like walking around, you know, like I just like don't see them in my vision. You don't see tan republic. That doesn't even like ring a bell. Like I don't, I physically like do not know to, it's like hot street people. I'm just like whatever, it's like a blur to me. So I want to end by just kind of talking in general about what these three myths have in common.

One thing I was not expecting when I started this is that in 2020, in the early, probably six months of the pandemic, there was fairly good reason to believe that vitamin D and Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were promising. All three of these things started out. It's like, yeah, there's a plausible mechanism here. There's a couple observational studies. And then that attracts an entire ecosystem of grifters.

Right, so we have the kind of online wellness, bullshit grifters who were just like, this will cure COVID immediately. But then we also have grifters who start producing studies, right? And who produce all this bizarre fraudulent data that we see in all of these stories. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

And then once we start getting the studies that are like, oh, this doesn't really work or there's no effect or the effect is far smaller than we thought it would be or it's detrimental, they then go into this weird defensive crouch, right? They've painted themselves into a corner where like, I've promised you that this was going to deliver an 80% reduction death rate. It's gonna prevent you from getting COVID, right? All these studies start coming out that are like, oh, it doesn't really work.

It doesn't do any of the things that you've claimed. And instead of just saying, oh, hey, I've learned from this, my bad, I may have overinflated how big of a deal this is, they double down. It then has to become this conspiracy and this forbidden knowledge and something that powers that be are keeping from you. That's the point at which it really reveals itself as a world view. Yes, exactly. And not an evidence.

Yes. I think a very important insight from the last couple years is that it's not just a world view, but it's a fundamentally right wing world view. I think that people like us who are kind of educated, liberal, coastal elites, whatever are a little bit reluctant to say that like the right wing has a lot more conspiracy stuff than the left wing. It feels kind of one-dimensional. It feels like it fits your priors too well. Right? You're like, oh, they're all crazy over there, right?

But then I think the allergy to saying conspiracy theories are primarily a right wing problem. I think people then go into this other thing where they're like, well, it's equally a problem on the left and the right. And that's also not true. That desire to avoid naming a partisan dynamic seems to me like it springs forth potentially from a desire not to have a public health crisis become a partisan issue. Exactly.

I think that's what people think they are avoiding by avoiding using those kinds of descriptive terms. Exactly. Ironically, it's fulfilling the same kind of emotional need that we see behind these drugs coming out. And everybody getting so excited about them, right? It's like people don't want to admit the empirical reality that conspiracy theories have like really taken over the American right.

Like as of now, the best predictor of whether or not someone is an anti-vaxxer is their partisan affiliation. I don't think that necessarily says anything about philosophical conservatism. People always debate this as if it's like a conservative versus liberal issue. But it's really about the institutions of the American right as we have them now as a political movement.

What we have is we have institutions on the right, specifically Fox News and Brightbart, these kind of these essentially propaganda outlets that do not have the ability to take in new information. I mean, I think part of it is that sort of passivity of like they won't root out people who lie. And part of it is it benefits them. Yeah, oh, absolutely. Right. It benefits them in ratings. It benefits them in viewership. It benefits them to whip people up and then sell them solutions.

Right. There's money in keeping people scared. There's money in presenting somebody as a victim. There's money in this story of, here's this obvious truth, but it's something they won't tell you. Pedaling those things is a great way to keep an audience. And I think that the incentives, frankly of podcasts of us, of everybody else to the incentives of media are not ideal in this way, right? But some institutions give into those incentives much more than others.

I mean, mostly I just think it's fascinating how much of this like started with a kernel of knowledge. Yeah. And just from like the human impulse to find comfort and stability in a really discomforting unstable time. Right. Right. And in those times, the place that I turned to for comfort, I know where you're going now. Get it over with. Get it over with. Winter white supremacist. I know you have a little tone of voice when you're about to zing us out. And okay, here she goes.

She goes back to the mind club, Joe. All right. Olympic slicer the D