Magic Numbers - podcast cover

Magic Numbers

Sierkovitztwitch.tv
Magic Numbers is a podcast about Limited format in Magic: the Gathering. The idea is to use data to try to crack current format, or try to answer longstanding questions in Magic and by answering the questions making the listeners better at drafting, deckbuilding and general strategy. The target audience is intermediate to advanced players, but rest assured, determined beginners will also find useful information that will allow them to level up. The podcast is an audio version of my Twitch seminars, so if some parts are confusing, it was designed to be watched on YouTube or live on Twitch.
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Episodes

#127 - Draft archetype analysis for Bloomburrow with the Skeleton Crew

My traditional set review. Which is also a star-studded panel discussion. But instead of looking at individual cards, we look at the decks. How do we see decks in the upcoming format, what cards are we hopeful and what synergies excited about. My guests are: Jason Ye, a Pro Tour star and one of the brains behind the Slogurk decks. But we all know that in reality, Jason only wants is to develop quirky draft build-arounds. And you are in for a treat here! https://x.com/JasonILTG Adam (aka Ddavp) -...

Jul 25, 20242 hr 39 min

#126 - MH3 set re-review with Chord_o_Calls

As with every set, at the end of the format me and Chord_o_Calls come back to the grades we gave each card in the format and see how far off were the grades from the card's actual performance. Did we nail our pre-release predictions? If not - where were the most mistakes? Were there any trends in colors, rarity? And with that information we try to speculate - what went wrong and what were right, so we can improve our card evaluation for the next time. Alex is one of the leading limited brains on...

Jul 25, 20241 hr 32 min

#125 - How to optimize lands in MH3 draft decks

MH3 has the most complicated land system in ages. A whooping 1/8th of all the cards you see during draft will be lands and that means they play an important role in the deck building process. Today I talk about how to make sure you have the right number of landscapes and what is the best way of sneaking Modal Double-Faced Cards (spells with land at the back of the card) into decks: should you replace a spell or another land with them. Plus some data on format speed and how to use rarely mentione...

Jul 10, 20241 hr 6 min

#124 - Learning to draft according to your level

In all areas of life we know that learning process is a progression. You start with simpler tasks and as you get better, take on more complicated ones building on your growing skillset. But Magic often has universal advice to all players without taking the individual level characteristics into account. Todays episode will try to at least identify some trends between different win rate groups of players and find cards that are evaluated differently between then and cards that are having different...

Jun 28, 20241 hr 39 min

#123 - Early dive into Modern Horizons 3 Draft Data

If you like a story with a good villain, MH3 delivers. Writhing Chrysalis is the best common we have seen by win rate and keep in mind - it all happens in a high power set. It will define the format - no doubt about it. Question is - what will you, the player do. Will you embrace it? Find a way to beat it? Or get angry with the format? If it is the latter - this content is not for you. However if you are looking into the first two options - I use the early format data to try and find the answer ...

Jun 28, 20241 hr 32 min

#122 - Personal Data with Paul Cheon

This week I have an immense pleasure of hosting a real legend and, if Magic were a country, a national treasure, Paul Cheon. We look through the data of Paul to try to figure out what was essential to Paul's incredible win rate in OTJ. But wait, there's more. Anecdotes, stories, general insights, some thoughts on the upcoming format and many more. I had fun recording, but after that I realised - while having fun and making silly guess games, we actually managed to create some pretty in-depth epi...

Jun 17, 20241 hr 59 min

#121 - Modern Horizon Draft Archetype Skeletons

New set preview time. Me, Jason Ye and a newcomer Springbok7 look at the MH3 and try to predict how each color combination would look like. Instead of traditional card review, we look at the set's fundamentals and build a skeleton of a deck using realistic assumptions (some rares, some uncommons, lots of commons) for each color pair. Plus many bonuses that include: my cat stopping the stream data error in one of the graphs (that one is on me) presentation malfunctioning I am sure many other bloo...

Jun 16, 20243 hr 8 min

#120 - OTJ set re-review with Chord_o_Calls

This week me and Alex, AKA Chord_o_Calls, come back to our prerelease predictions of the OTJ set. We evaluated every card then - but how did our predictions pan out? This review is not design to pat ourselves on the back - we focus on mistakes and try to figure out why we made them. Do we have one-off issue or is there some systematic bias in how we assess the cards. This episode is key if you want to improve in card evaluation - might be useful with MH3 on the horizon. Yes. I went there. Alex i...

May 31, 20241 hr 15 min

#119 - Figuring game plans using data

Some draft archetypes are relatively straightforward. This will naturally mean that the data related to those archetypes will be of high quality as people are playing right cards in those decks. But some color pairs turn out to be more elusive for Arena users. And this means that a lot of the data related to those archetypes is based on badly built decks, which will underestimate the color pair's power in the generic datasets, leading to players undervaluing the color pair. This is an exploit yo...

May 31, 20241 hr 21 min

Bonus: How to Draft Ikoria on Arena

Ikoria is coming back to Arena for a week. It is my favourite draft format of all the ones I played. The definition and a gold standard of a high synergy format, fun, unique in so many ways - I would not be myself if I didn’t preach its merits. And there are so many. Hopefully after listening to this bonus episode you can try it and learn that it has so much more to offer than the common knowledge suggests. What is the Ikoria philosophy? What are its features? How to tame the micro synergies? Ho...

May 21, 20241 hr 36 min

#118 - Drafting OTJ

This episode we look at the pack composition of OTJ play boosters. How many rares are there acually? What is the common frequency and how often do you get the cards from each of the many bonus sheets? On top of that - How should we approach pack one? Is sticking to one color a sustainable strategy? Should you diversify? And we look at the most attractive wheel targets, which also sheds some light on the most underdrafted archetypes. Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ , sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠...

May 17, 20241 hr 39 min

#117 - Learning to draft OTJ from top players

Some strategies in draft are easier to reproduce at any skill level than others. In this episode I look at the cards, color pairs and strategies that top 17Lands.com users mastered but the general population still struggles with. What are the secrets of the best players? How do they build the decks others struggle with? Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ , sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ , and use this ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linktree⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for everything else! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

May 08, 20241 hr 52 min

#116 - Early Dive into OTJ data

Early data from a draft format should be treated with caution, but also gives us some essential information on how to approach the format. I am talking about color power rankings, color pairs in the set to give you a general impression of the power level of each of them. But the real fun begins as I dive into each color pair and give you the best card, the hidden gem and the trap for each of the pairs at common and uncommon. Hidden in that data is some information on what each color pair wants t...

Apr 22, 20242 hr 9 min

#115 - Outlaws of Thunder Junction Draft Skeletons Stream with the Skeleton Crew

It is that time of the Magic calendar again. I meet with Jason Ye, Adam (DDAVP) and Zach Kagan to talk about our vision for the upcoming set. Which cards are spiking our interest? Which cards are confusing us? Why do we think some archetypes are going to be great and some are going to be rubbish? We discuss our impressions of the new set, and after a lengthy debate, present our draft "skeletons" - realistically built propositions of decks you might want to try out yourself. From Azorius "I don't...

Apr 10, 20242 hr 53 min

#114 - Q&A

This week I answered dozens of questions about data, how to analyse it, me, my pets, philosophy of analysing Magic, and more. Here are all the answers. Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ , sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ , and use this ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linktree⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for everything else! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ This podcast is sponsored by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mtgazone.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - get your reading fix from the best and...

Apr 10, 20241 hr 45 min

#113 - Playing multicolor in MKM draft

In the late stages of the season it is nice to keep things fresh. And drafting a unique multicolor pile of cards might be the new lookout on the format you need to rejuvenate your interest in MKM. But 5 color decks on average have one significant problem. They tend to win less. Today's episode will look at how to make sure your multicolor deck is good. Which cards are essential, how much mana fixing do you need - I look in some detail to all those questions. On top of that, I use this episode to...

Mar 26, 20242 hr

#112 - Revisiting MKM set review witch Chord_o_Calls

This week we look back at the... BUT WAIT, WHO IS IT behind me with the steel chair!!!! Yes, Alex Nikolic AKA Chord_o_Calls came to visit me all the way from Canada and we used that time to record our set rereview. Set reviews are fun - you can speculate about which cards and colors are good, gives you the opportunity to think about the upcoming format. But usually noone comes back to them. Not us. Our main driving force in playing Magic is continuous improvement. And what better way to improve ...

Mar 19, 20241 hr 39 min

#111 - How to train a Pro Player in draft with Eduardo Sajgalik

This week I have a guest - a Pro Player, caster, Magic theorist Eduardo Sajgalik, AKA Walaoumpa and we talk about his role as the Limited coach for the Pro Tour team Worldly Counsel. What differences and similarities are there in coaching the cream of the crop of Magic players? How can you use their strategies in self improvement - all in the context of MKM draft. Plus a completely unscripted bonus part with some chat questions and analysis of the current format which is imho an amazing depth in...

Mar 13, 20242 hr 19 min

#110 - The Secrets of ALSA (and MKM draft data)

ALSA is a term that gets thrown around a lot in data-adjacent content about Limited. But what exactly is ALSA? And what is the full meaning of the number that hides itself behind those four letters? I take a deeper dive on that metric, looking to answer what it really is. And the first 17Lands data is publicly available so it is time to dive into draft data. Which cards go later in pack 3? What are the best 1st picks? And which cards can you wheel reliably - all that in the episode. Join the ⁠⁠⁠...

Mar 08, 20241 hr 5 min

#109 - Learning to draft MKM from the top players through data

Limited is hard. You need to be at a decent level of playing, know what is going on in the format, be able to build a coherent deck. Starting to draft can be a scary process. You get so much advice that is unintuitive, conflicting, confusing. A part of that is: advice is usually targeted at a particular group of players, but that group is rarely specified. Not today though. I look at the data from different win rate groups of players and try to tailor the advice to people whose win rate is sligh...

Mar 04, 20241 hr 28 min

#108 - Early Dive into MKM Draft Data

New format is pretty complicated and it may be tricky to find your footing in the first days. But fear not - the data is here to help us and I dive deep into card win rate to test what makes each color pair tick, which cards over-perform, and which are traps you should avoid. We look at the general picture of the format, speculate on what can the next few weeks bring and explore archetypes and what do the y want to be doing in the context of MKM. Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ , sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠...

Feb 19, 20242 hr

#107 - Cooking Limited Decks at Karlov Manor

Magic has surprisingly lot of similarities to cooking and today, we are moving to haute cuisine. Deck-building theory-crafting. While waiting for the new set to be released I spend an amount of time I can't really excuse thinking about build-arounds in this formats. All those thoughts can't go to waste so this week we are looking at how I imagine some potentially fun off-piste decks in this format. Lot of it is theoretical, but aside from this, I lay out a framework for anyone on how to approach...

Feb 11, 20241 hr 13 min

#106 - Murders at Karlov Manor Draft Skeletrons

Me, JasonILTG, Tajoordan and DDAVP look at the upcoming set and try to figure out how would we want a deck in each color pair to look like. To do so we first explore the format synergies and the cards we like and later assemble them in simple limited deck with some reasonable limitations (1-2 rares, 6-8 uncommons and rest just commons). Check this out if you are prepping for the prerelease and want to exercise your brain before the format hits Arena. My esteemed guests are all accomplished limit...

Feb 01, 20242 hr 15 min

#105 - LSV^3: Talking Arena Cube with Luis Scott-Vargas

My guest this week needs no introduction (he still gets one, though), being one of the game's all-time greatest players. But apart from his pro player credentials, LSV is a cube fanatic, and I tap into his vast expertise to look through the latest edition of Arena Cube and see which cards and which strategies I, a cube rookie, should focus on over the following days. A side effect of that - you might learn something too. We look at some data from previous cube iterations and at the changes that ...

Jan 23, 20241 hr 20 min

#104 - Prince or Pauper

This episode I am looking into what does it mean for a set to be prince or pauper and how do recent sets align with different definitions of that term. Because there are plenty definitions. Some will focus more on the power of rare cards, some on the power (or lack thereof) of the commons and uncommons. A data exploration episode - most useful if you want to spend some time thinking on how rarity shapes limited formats. Join the ⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠ , sign up for ⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠ , and use this ⁠⁠Linktree⁠⁠ f...

Jan 22, 202448 min

#103 - Revisiting LCI set review with Chord_O_Calls

This week I am joined by Limited content behemoth, Chord_O_Calls AKA Alex Nikolic to talk about out set reviews for LCI from the perspective of an almost finished format. I was always thorn about set reviews. On the one hand, they are useful to get accustomed to cards before the format starts, but on the other, they are frequently based on wild speculations and - to my knowledge - rarely scrutinized for their accuracy. To change that, my set reviews are reversed. I invite a guest and review the ...

Jan 15, 20241 hr 5 min

#102 - 2023 Limited Awards with Uncle Cardboard

Time of the year to sum up 2023 and look at best commons, uncommons in each color, most desired cards, most played color, etc. Not 100% serious with Uncle Cardboard on special day for both - as we are birthday neighbours as well. But don't be fooled by fooling around - between bad puns you get to think about set design and why some designs are more successful than others, which types of cards prove to be generally successful, etc. Follow Jake on Twitter Join the Discord , sign up for Patreon , a...

Jan 05, 20241 hr 59 min

#101 - How to find game plans using data in Limited?

Finding the right strategy for a color pair is a key element to winning more. Many drafts were lost when a player tried to play controlling game in a color combination that doesn't support it well, or trying to be aggressive using cards that are just not good in doing that. This week I look at the game duration data in LCI to try and figure out what should you be focusing on when drafting your decks. Why Azorius is not particularly good in being aggressive? Why RG Dino decks are more aggro than ...

Dec 22, 20231 hr 25 min

#100 - Khans of Tarkir with Ben Seck

This week we look at the new set on Arena: Khans of Tarkir. Is it new though? Released in 2014, Khans is considered to be an all-time best draft set by many Limited experts. But 2014 is the time I was happily retired from Magic, so in order to get some valuable information and correct me where I am wrong in my evaluations, I invited a multi-Limmie award winning magic historian and pro player, Ben Seck. Yes. THE Ben Seck. You may and even should know him from being a regular guest in Limited Reso...

Dec 15, 20232 hr 29 min

#99 - Drafting the Right Way

Improvement in Magic is hard. Where to start? Diagnosing the problem can be a daunting task. Today I look at how to measure your draft strategies and figure out how you draft - are you a forcing type of a drafter or a durdly drafter who bobs and weaves for too long before making a decision to settle on a path. Both strategies have their pros and cons, so finding the right balance should improve both your win rate and in some cases also the trophy rate. Apart from this we have a collection of dat...

Dec 07, 202359 min
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