Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 5/15/26 - podcast episode cover

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 5/15/26

May 15, 202644 min
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Summary

This episode analyzes the bond market's negative reaction to inflation and government spending, impacting market sentiment and leading to caution on stock purchases. Cramer reviews next week's earnings from major retailers and tech giants like NVIDIA, and dives deep into Babcock & Wilcox's pivot to data center power and Inflection's quantum computing advancements. He also features Joanna Stern on AI's daily life impact, concluding with a stark warning about the potential market froth from the anticipated SpaceX IPO.

Episode description

Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money.

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Transcript

Intro / Opening

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plan.

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BC Events.com.

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To make you I'm here to level the... For all in b.

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Bond Market's Wrath & Investor Caution

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Welcome to Mab Money. Welcome to Cray America. Other people make friends, I'm just trying to save you a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate, put things in context. So call me at one eight hundred seven four three CMBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. Never forget that the stock market ultimately answers to the bond market. Bonds are in the driver's seat, and the bond market really doesn't like inflation or lots of new bond supply.

It can suss out rising consumer and producer prices coming from miles away. It knows when governments are spending recklessly like ours is right now. So periodically the bond market acts up. Sending US Treasuries down in price and up in yield. Today it didn't just act up, it threw a temper tantrum.

Higher. Certainly much higher than they were before the war with Iran. And that's why the averages really turned ugly. Dow sinking five hundred and thirty seven points, S B falling one point two four percent, and then NASDAQ coming one point five four percent. Remember those days? What did set off the bomb mark?

Oil, of course, which traded up four percent now to one hundred and five dollars. That's way too high for this economy. The price of the pump is getting mighty expensive, and the bond market is not happy about that. It abhors rampant energy inflation and all the downstream problems it caused. It's not particularly reassured by President Trump's state visit to China, which looks like a lot of handshakes, some dinner pictures, and not much else in the way of substance or even commerce.

Historically speaking, there's nothing that alarming about the 10-year Treasury yielding 4.59% or the 30-year yielding 5.12%. But these rates are at a one-year high, and more important, they signal that rate cuts. Are not on the menu, at least not any time soon.

Kevin Marsh is replacing Jay Pallas Fed chief. He wants to cut rates because parts of the economy, like the autos, housing, they're sluggish, and retail sales have turned suboptimal. Without the colossal data center build out, construction would be disappointing too. Rate cuts could reverse all that, but it's you're responsible to cut rates when inflation is running red hot.

The Fed tried that during the last oil crisis in the mid seventies, and it was a disaster. Nothing. Horse's hands might be tied. Now that wasn't the case before the war back when oil was in the fifties and sixties. So unless the war comes to a swift end, I can't be too aggressive about buying more stock. We didn't recommend buying this dip for members of the CMC Investing Club, save for single stock. Not enough of the decline.

Plus, we had that crazy Cerebrus IPO yesterday with almost double from the start. Come on. That showed a level of recklessness that I haven't seen in more than a decade. We can't lose discipline here and expect the market to keep running with this kind of froth. We'll be overrun by a wave of massive deals, including by the way Space SpaceX, more on that later.

That would overheat this market and perhaps create a reprise of the dot-com collapse. That's my biggest fear when I see such overenthusiasm. Been there, done that, and you know I haven't been a doomer. I'm not a doomer. I just haven't I haven't been a bear wolf. But a smart bull knows when to recognize when the facts have changed. And I'm very worried that we're headed for the kind of reckless flood of IPOs that always lead to heartbreak.

We aren't there yet, but we need to be wary of the possibility and we need to protect our gains. I'm sorry that you that I'm so somber, but you know what? This was the first down day and a lot of people acted like it was the only down day that we're gonna get. And I can't play it like that. My job is to protect at some points, not necessarily make a lot of money. Protect. So let's go to our gameplay for next week, but then I have how I feel here.

Next Week's Earnings & Stock Insights

Monday's catapults this division. Okay, it's integral to data center construction, and it's hosting a headquarters visit for investment. Right now cat trades at thirty six times earnings. It's like a tech stock. Oh you know I like cat, but it this has become overheated. If this division uh well it's this division has everybody excited. Perhaps it merits the premium? We have to find out.

Tuesday Home Depot kicks off the procession of retaileries. This is retail weedy. We own this one for the Travel Trust, and I always tell you about the good ones. Let me tell you about the bad ones. This has been a huge bust, right? The despot's going down and down and down mostly because of the spike in interest rates. Anything connected to housing gets hurt by higher rates. I don't expect anything good this time. But as long as the quarter isn't terrible, there is a chance for a rally. Yes.

Stock of Home Depot has fallen that low. Verdict, which makes cooling equipment for the data center, has an investor meeting. I expect to hear good things, but the stock's abused, so it might not matter.

After the close, we get numbers from my favorite home builder, Philly-based Toll Brothers, which produces high-end housing. Bit a decent time for toll, but not blowout. Still, very tough to own a home builder when rates are rising. This stock isn't down as much as the others. How about that for a

Hey, it's not Dallas Bay as the others. There's a calling card. Wednesday we have Target in the morning, and I think it's gonna repeat its terrific performance from the three from three months ago. New management's trying so far successfully to bring back some of the old magic. Comparisons can be odious. Our mother's told us that, right? And when Lowe's reports, I think the comparisons may feel pretty darn bad for Home Depot.

Lowe's is more do it yourself while Home Depot is more professional. Given the dearth of new home sales, you want to go with the DIY renovations guy, and that's Lowe's. After the close, we get results from the most important stock in this entire market, and yes, indeed, that is NVIDIA. If the data center is the most important piece of this economy, and I would say it is, then NVIDIA is at the heart of the data center, the beating beauty that's helped propel our markets to incredible highs.

including its own stock. Now I've been telling you to own NVIDIA, do not trade it since the days when it was in this low single digits. Sometimes it tries men's souls and women's souls, like when it was stuck under 200. I said stay with it. It's now 225.

Now my modus operandi going into the quarter is that once again, don't focus on the short term. The growth here should be spectacular. The earnings colossal. Stock's been running though. I'm glad it cooled off today, dropping ten bucks. But it was up ten the other day. I am cognizant we need a perfect quarter for a video to go much higher. But then again

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We might get it.

Retail, Software, and Market Risks

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Thursday Walmart reports All right, let me tell you something, my main commitment Walmart's among the greatest companies of our era, having been revamped into a place to shop not just for lower incomes, but for everyone. I know so many snobs in this business who've never been to one and they've missed the whole darn move. It if they went to it, they'd know the truth. It's hard to beat their prices or their selection.

Yes, Walmart's that good. I expect terrific numbers. Hey, their natural food section is terrific, so you get a life here. We also get numbers from work day. All right, now this once beloved software as a service company has become a potion boy for the displacement. Yes, AI displacement. I don't expect bad numbers, but the long knives are out for the company. Now workday stock rallied five percent today as part of a rotation into the software stocks led by Microsoft.

The group had a bunch of outsized gain. Microsoft up three percent, Salesforce up 3.5%, ServiceNow jumping 5%, Adobe gaining 4.5%. Now to me it felt more like a giant sh short squeeze'cause they all traded together. I don't know if this move can be maintained. All the other enterprise software rallies have been met with torrential selling after a couple of days of strong performance.

Maybe this one will be different, but I don't know how that's gonna happen. I mean look, maybe the uh heads of Anthropic and Opening I will come out and say, You know what? We're not planning to eat these companies alive, but that's unlikely.

What else? The club retailers have the rooms here. Costco's got red hot. Not so BJ's wholesale club. I think you could have s place some rooms, got some catch up. I still prefer Costco for the long run though. There's the bottom line. Today was a comeuppance day.

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A reminder that the bond market's wrath can smack down even the best stock market, no matter how robust. We need a tame bond market for stocks to keep advancing, which means we need oil to come down. And that's not happening unless we get an end to the war. Sadly, it's going to be harder for me to get more aggressive, more bullish, because as far as I can tell, there's no end in sight to this war.

Investment Club Calls: Stock Analysis

Let's take a call from Sunny in Illinois. Sunny.

G

Hey Jimbo, a big chocolate chip pancakes and almost to Yabuya from Egg.

B

Yeah.

G

Ormond Park, Illinois.

B

I'll give you an iHot Booyah right back in y right back at your bottomless pot. What do you got from me?

G

Hey man, longtime uh investment club member. Me and actually me and all my employees, we're all we all tune into you every single day, man, to learn and and and and make it.

B

Okay. That's what the game is. I mean someone I I stop a guy stopped me on the street and he goes, You're my teacher You just got one of the regular guys in red jackets, you know, clean you know keep this downtown clean. You're my teacher. And I said, Oh my God, you're my student. I gave him a big hug. I love it. I wanna be known as the teacher. Let's go to work together. Let me do some teaching.

G

Yeah, man. Hey, me, my sons Dak and Jimmy, we've been following you for about fifteen years now, man.

B

No, thank you. Thank you, Sonny. Thank you very much.

G

So uh I wanna wanna talk to you about this company that took a hit after earnings But I think they're gonna do better when the economy turns around and home builders start to buy their products again. Your buddies at Goldman gave them a neutral with a fifty two dollar price target. You think it's safe to buy Whirlpool down

B

Yeah, you know, that that Goldman neutral was uh down from a buy and they mi I think they missed it. I've gotta tell you, I am very concerned about that company. I do not think that they are what run right that they are doing as poorly as they say, but then they could say, Well, Jim, Best Buy's really bad too, and Best Buy is really bad too. But I would tell you that right now I don't see any relief and if you did want to play it like I did, then you would as you're a club member do Home Depot.

Or or do Lowe's. I think Lowe's number's gonna be better. But thank you for those great comments. I mean it. Thank you. Make th we'll be right through the weekend. Let's go to Andy in Michigan. Andy.

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Hey Jim, Booyah! Axon Enterprises first back in twenty fifteen at thirty four dollars on your right.

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Well they had, you know, Axon Axon was on today. I thought they acquitted themselves while which is why I think why the stock was up three bucks. I have been um we were very worried about motorola competition when we met with them when we were up at Harvard Business School. I am still concerned about that and I still think that this market does not like high multiple stocks and Axon is a high multiple stock. I want to go to Grant in New Mexico. Grant.

K

Good afternoon, mister Kramer.

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I'm a great.

K

Great club member.

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Altyazı M.K.

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Member, thanks to you and your team for all your hard work. and helping me make money for my family.

B

Yes, thank you very much. Thank you. How can I help you now?

K

Well, Palantir is down twenty percent year to date and occupies fifteen percent of my uh twelve stock portfolio. I've trimmed several times and recovered all my cost bases. So now I'm playing with the house's money. My question is, would you recommend that I continue to trim into strength?

B

For the initial house's money Plan with House Money Grant, you're gonna let this one run. Now pounds here is a perfect example of an incredibly good company whose stock got ahead on I had liked it all the way down from 50, but I'm not going away from it. To be an expensive stock, but it is an amazing company, and I think you should hold on to the rest. And I always welcome anyone from Palantir. to come on, including a first-year associate since no one else will come from them.

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Someone maybe who's gonna commit there who's still in college.

Babcock & Wilcox: Coal to Data Centers

Today was a reminder that no matter how strong the market is, the bond market can always come in and sell Power generator Babcock and Wilcox has been on a tear this year's benefits from the data center build-out, even though it's a coal comp coal builder at one point. They're like Purdue, you know? 160-year-old company. of the CEO to learn more. Then the quantum is one. But how do you get your arms around? Sitting down with the top brass of the latest public

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And yesterday's Cerebrus IPO confirmed some of the things that we're going to do.

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I'm explaining how to do it.

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Foyle ahead of the next big

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Don't miss a second of

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Have a question? Tweet Kramer.

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Jim and emailed a

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Call at 1-800-743-72.

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Even on an ugly day like this one, some data center related stocks keep making new highs. Take Babcock and Wilcox Enterprises. It's a company founded nearly 160 years ago. Makes all sorts of equipment for power generation, emissions control. They got their start making boilers for the second industrial revolution.

And now they're helping to power the fourth industrial revolution. And that's why the stock's up two hundred and forty five percent year to date and over twenty-five un twenty-five hundred percent. Just over the past twelve months when I first saw it, I didn't believe it, but it's true.

And when you look at the numbers, you can understand why the stock's been rallying so hard. When Babcock and Wilkosh reported earlier this week they delivered forty-four percent revenue growth and their booking shot up two thousand percent year over year, with their backlog rising four and eighty-three percent to two point seven billion dollars.

Even when the company priced a two hundred million dollar secondary offering at eighteen fifty per share earlier today, down almost two bucks from yesterday's close, it didn't take long for the stock to erase its losses and finish up sixty-three cents or two point nine seven percent remember to hit in the market. So can this thing keep running? Let's dig deeper with Kenneth Young. He's the chairman and CEO of Babcock and Milcox. Mr. Young, welcome to Mayor Money.

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Thank you. Glad to be here.

B

Well, I've got to tell you, it's an amazing story. This is a story of a comeback and a comeback of a storied, a legendary company that always had great technology and great engineering. I don't want people to get things wrong. You still do most a lot of coal work. And the backlog, we can talk about data center, but first I just want to talk about coal, in part because we're not an anti-coal country anymore, so I don't want to overlook it.

F

No, that's true. Uh Babcock and Wilcox, as you mentioned, hundred and sixtieth year and our tradition goes back supporting coal plants and power plants. In fact, the first one in New York, uh over a hundred and sixty years ago. So happy to celebrate that anniversary this year. But uh over fifty percent of our revenue still comes from supporting coal plants, not only in the United States but around

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around the world.

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And actually coal usage um in Southeast Asia and other parts of the world is on the rise. And so we continue to support those plants, parts and services to maintain efficiency, environmental issues or concerns on those particular fleets, as well as ensure they're running. Uh full time.

B

And we're like the we're recommissioning. I'm we're not it it we we need every part. I I look I'm like everybody else, uh obviously I don't want the whole like the Chinese have f all these coal plants are putting up every month and uh but I also recognize that a clean coal plant in an era where uh you guys know what you're doing can be as clean as a dirty natural gas plant for every sake.

F

No, that's absolutely correct. The ultra super critical coal plant can be in the same level of efficiency as a combined cycle or simple cycle. natural gas plants in the long run. So there's value in keeping these coal fleets going in order to meet the consumer and industrial demand that's happening here in the US and around the world.

B

Okay, now I know though what we have to understand is like for the secondary day, people are just very excited about your book. And they're looking at the bookings and looking at hyperscalers, looking at an applied digital neo-cloud company that has a huge project with you, the base electron project. Maybe you can explain to people what the base electron project is. They might understand uh both. the current we just described and the future of of Black Rock and Mohawk.

B&W's Hyperscaler Power & Workforce

F

Sure. So Applied Digital set up um Base Electron as an IPP, uh independent power provider, uh in order to provide electricity to meet the the needs of the data centers. So in our particular case, our project with Base Electron Which is backstopped by Applied Digital, um is gonna provide uh just over one point two gigawatts of power.

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Yeah.

F

Just huge, using just traditional, as your uh point earlier, using four three hundred megawatt steam turbines and steam boilers to produce this power and electricity. So it's using traditional technology that's been around since nineteen fifty. in order to meet the demand of these data centers today in a very efficient um fashion. But more importantly, we can provide that power in a much faster time period. Um combustion cycles, combustion turbines

are on back order for five to ten years. We can produce these power plants in uh under thirty six months. So

B

Because you know, I know G E V Vernova they they're they're backed up too far as far as I'm concerned in terms of trying to figure out we know why Chow Tos owns it, but there's no doubt about it, you can't you gotta get in their queue. There is not a long queue for you.

F

So the the key for us is we look at our manufacturing both in the steam turbines as well as in the boiler manufacturing around the world. And we leverage manufacturing facilities throughout the world. In United States, obviously, a little bit Mexico, Europe, India. um over in uh Korea as well. But when you look at the the companies themselves, the combustion turbine companies are at capacity, without a doubt. The steam turbine companies have capacity to build.

They're much smaller scale um than the combustion turbines. So the capacity exists for that technology. Same on the boiler manufacturing side. We can get boilers through at a much faster pace.

B

Okay, that's very important because I know that the hyperscalers are really hungry to do this and you did say that you are I'm gonna just quote in active discussions with additional hyperscaler and utility customers. including potential projects in the three hundred megawatt, five hundred megawatt, and even one to two gigawatt range. So you've got a big potential order book here with some of the big companies that we talk about all the time.

F

do. We're excited about that, obviously supporting them and as we work through the development of these opportunities. And some of this is also grounded in the fact that we can take our um boilers and combine those with combustion turbines in the future. So Um for example, we could put in a steam turbine today with a steam boiler today and produce let's just say a hundred megawatts out of that particular

Yeah. We can combine that in the future when the combustion turbine becomes available at a hundred megawatt, combine that with that uh steam boiler and turbine and now produce two hundred megawatt from that particular site without increasing the land mass. And that's a real advantage for these hyperscalers and data centers and utilities in order to have a time to market and to produce power.

B

Well, when did people when did the the the big hyperscalers disc uh rediscover you? I can't say discover you because you're rapper's all because I mean in many ways, candidly other than boom energy, I don't know anyone else's capacity.

F

Yeah, it's it's exciting for us, obviously being around so long and and our brand equity obviously worldwide is very solid. Everybody knows who Brabcock and Wilcox is. Um but it is exciting for us because the hyperscalers and other utilities

um obviously are looking at alternative solutions to provide power. And the one of the fastest to market to be able to do that and something that is proven technology, which is the other important piece, are when you talk about technology has been around since nineteen fifty, it's proven. So it works, we know it works, there's low risk on this technology, we can provide this technology faster and it's becoming a a much better alternative for the utilities and hyperspection.

B

There's a chance that you could be overwhelmed with orders. I mean, you are you trying to figure out you trying to game it correctly in some behind the meter, these are huge projects.

F

No, it's a good point. So Um as we we began working on base electron or the applied project and working with our manufacturers, one of the things that we started to do was secure capacity for the next project and the next project, right? To make sure that we had that capacity available to us.

The other area that we're really focused on, which is a a big issue for the US, is the construction labor. So the welders, the boilermakers, the pie fitters and you know, we have a very good relationship with the boilermakers and working with them to try to um uh figure out how we could train more and increase the number of welders and the availability, not necessarily in the next two years, but three to five years out. Yeah, see that.

B

I I find that the gaining factor with pat Power's a gating factor and the gating factor with power is often the workforce.'Cause we don't produce these we didn't look when your company started, these were the jobs, but we all got caught up in a kind of liberal education. We like liberal arts, but The the jobs are what you have, correct?

F

No, they are. And and we're obviously the whole construction industry in the US, especially around data centers and power producers, is is going up. Right. Labor force is making more than they have in the past, but we need more of them. um by wide variety. So we look at five to ten years, we have to increase that workforce. So we have to start the recruiting and training today in order to be uh situated in a solid place to have access to those constructions. Well

B

I I can't have to tell you, sir, that when I started working on it because we had get lots of questions about it, I was I was skeptical that you guys could be the guy and then I saw that you had a big hyperscale and all the hypothesis looking. But when I listened to you I realized, geez.

You may be like the last hope on this. We unless we go to space or figure out quantum. I don't see any time we're gonna do that. We I like this technology'cause it powered the second industrial revolution. It did a pretty darn good job. That's Kenneth Young, Chairman and CEO of Backlog and Wilcox. Remember, the big backlog big backlog is very exciting for you if you're a data center guy, but there's a lot of coal and recommission.

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AI's Real-World Impact: Joanna Stern

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AI is coming.

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Every part of our life

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Kramer's investigation with author Joannister.

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Well, you know us, we spend a lot of time talking about how you try to profit from the AI revolution, but we don't spend nearly enough time focused on how AI and robotics will actually impact your day-to-day lives. Even though we know a change is coming, we we don't know exactly what it's gonna look like. Thankfully, Joanna Stern, former personal technology columnist at the Wall Street Journal, has done that thinking for us with her new book, I Am Not a Robot, my year using AI to do

almost everything. I thought the book was really illuminating and by the way, laugh out loud, hysterical, so just like you know if you read her stuff. So let's learn more with Joanna Stern, who now runs her own tech media company, New Thing. While serving as chief technology analyst and a contributing correspondent for NBC News. Mr. and welcome to Matt Muddy.

I

Thank you for having me here.

B

I am honored to have you. I've never I did something that I'd never done, which I clicked on your byline and sent you and said, Man, I don't know who you are, but you are incredible. Because your stuff is really funny. And I'm gonna say this is a very serious book that is off that is also hilarious. How are you able to combine the two for this topic? Because it's remarkable to see that w in a writer.

I

Oh well thank you. It happened a little bit naturally. I didn't plan it that way, but I set out to spend my year using AI in as many parts of my life as possible and I made a list of gonna be all the things the tech CEOs have been talking about, right? Healthcare, education, transportation, robotics.

And some of those, like healthcare, naturally lend themselves to a little bit more serious. Same with relationships. I said I'm gonna put myself in an AI relationship'cause we keep reading about these relationships people are having, kids are having. Right. I'm gonna do that and it's gonna be funny, but it's also gonna be serious if I'm having a relationship and talking to a chat bot or a computer all day long.

B

Well I'm glad you said that because a lot of what I mean I was mentioning the team, I said y you talk about love and and the bots, we talk about mammogram and the bots, you talk about uh about raising kids in a and a bot and what at all times you do have takeaways. There are takeaways in every chapter, even the little one pages that you do. Um uh your bias is in favor, but it's clear that you also think we are so not there yet.

I

We're not there yet. And when we are there, I'm terrified of what happens when we are there. So that was I think really a theme that came through all of the chapters, right? That even what we have now It's good. Right. Right. It's gotten far better, as you guys cover a lot on the show and on this network. It's gotten far better in the last few years as these companies have put more compute and more data into these models. They're hallucinating less.

But they still make a lot of mistakes and we're going to see that progress in the next five, ten, fifteen years. And so I was trying to look into the future of where are we now and where are we going with all of this?

AI: Job Displacement and Human Connection

B

He did it and I know that you talk addressed the Doomers, uh, who are very powerful and very prevalent, but you also uh interviewed Sam Altman and I think he's too out there for me. I felt that they're that it's very clear you make the point, look, they are gonna be smart. They're our kids We'll be bested by these. And we don't really know what that world will be. But you said don't let it control you. That's really important.

I

Absolutely do not let it control you. And I use this term in in here, AEI, already enough intelligence that even what we have today feels like it's enough, that these tools, if applied in the right ways, can do so many things for people. Do we always need more? That's the the profit incentive of these tech companies right now. We need more, we need better, we need more, but are we really evaluating what we have right now?

B

But you do say that tech is the o is only impressive if it's better than what it replacing and a lot of what they're doing is that does fit that model.

I

Well, they're replacing humans, right?

B

Well you talk about all the things that we're going to do

I

Where it's a good idea.

B

Yes, I mean you say, look, uh doctors, divers, drivers, massage therapists, financial advisors, house cleaners, coders, journalists, they're we're they're all going to be under attack by that.

I

That's right. Yeah. Massage therapists. I mean, the idea that I went and I tested this massage robot and compared that to

B

Mm-hmm.

I

The butt massage. Yeah, there's a bit it spends a lot of time massaging your butt, and honestly, a human wouldn't do that.

B

No and and also so what happens when you're in a Waymo and someone t gets out to try to take a picture like this from the car that's next to you? Waymo doesn't know what to do.

I

Ramo doesn't know what to do. That's another story where where we're seeing we we see these companies pushing human replacement. And sometimes there's significant benefit. We see it in cars.

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Cars didn't.

I

Robotic cars do not have the same distractions as human drivers. We know that. We live in New Jersey, right? We know all the distracted drivers in New Jersey. Robot cars don't have that, but they have a whole other set of issues. Same with the massage therapist robot, right? Maybe it does my it rebu it massages my butt for a really long time and that's great because I have lower back pain, but it doesn't do other things that humans do. So this is what that world looks like. But

B

In the end you talk about the notion of think. And I feel from when you're Tom when you talk about union college, like the school, that it can replace thinking and that's just plain out bad.

I

Clean out bad. I mean look at you. You took this book. You read it. I this is the most impressive thing I've ever seen, by the way. I mean, you you have it torn up pages and you've highlighted and I can tell you did real thinking about this. I don't think you went to a chat bot and said, summarize this book for me before my segment. I c I can tell Jim, you you did the real

B

work here. Joanna, it's an incredibly impressive book and it's a serious work and you have to do that because it is provocative and I am not sure about this new world either.

I

If your kids don't know how to do that.

B

um, they'll be overwhelmed, they'll lose their jobs and that worries me tremendously. And that's that's is it is an existential threat and it's also existentially positive. And I don't usually think that it's that t they could both be in one vain, but they are.

Yeah. So I mean all right, so now you got your own I know I'm the rapping me but you got your own thing you're doing. You're not at the journal anymore. I mean like we all love your journal stuff and this is filled with stuff that I think is m uh candidly more pointed. Oh. And not a not as prurient, so to speak.

But uh the thing I wanna we'll leave with is that you do point out that there are people in relationships with their computer and there is a level, whether it be therapist or whether it be a love interest, where people have to be careful. Leave it on this note, right?

I

Absolutely. And and One of the the rules at the end of the book, I will spoil one of the rules at the end of the book. Please do not fall in love with your chat bot. And if you feel any inkling toward it, throw that computer or phone in the nearest body of water.

B

All right,'cause I don't want anyone to do the the ultimate because they got too involved with their PC. I want to thank Joanna Stern, she's the author of I Am Not Robot. Uh and I gotta tell you yes, I

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Coming up.

Inflection: Quantum's National Security Role

New name has arrived in the Quantum Computing.

C

So should you be considering adding it to your Kramer's questioning the top brand.

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For most of last year, the quantum computing stock they seemed invincible. Then last fall they went out of style all with the other speculative plays that had thrived during the year of magical investing, as I called it. This technology is still in its infancy, but it could be a game changer down the road. So I think it's worth getting to know the major players in the space, including

inflection, that's with the Q, INF Q, which came public via a spacked merger that closed back in February. Now these guys have partnerships with a host of government agencies from NASA and Pentagon, along with major companies like L three Harrison, Saffron, Last night inflection reporting its first quarter as a publicly traded company had backed up some I felt some solid revenue growth, even as the business is still a long, long way from turning in profit, as I'm sure they will tell you.

The stock got hammered response down eleven percent today, but I think that's just more about the market's appetite for risk than anything else on a given day. So let's check in with Matt Kinsella. He's the CEO of Conflexion. You get better read on the situation. Mr. Kinsella, welcome to Mad Money.

D

Jim, thank you so much for having me. I'm a big fan for a long time.

B

Thank you, Matt. Well I have to tell you, uh I am very impressed with all the uh opportunities you have and the things you're doing. But I think our audience would like to know, well hold it, quantum computing, are they all the same? Yeah. What's the difference? Yep. And you guys have a very differential model, so I'm gonna turn it over to you to explain why.

D

Absolutely. So inflection is a neutral atom quantum technologies company. that we build a range of quantum products that span from timekeeping devices to sensors to quantum computers that are all based on this core quantum technology right here. And what we do is we trap millions of atoms inside these quantum cells.

And then we take advantage of their quantum mechanical properties by interrogating them with lasers and turning those into clocks or sensors or computers. So it's a highly flexible quantum modality that allows us to have this very differentiated commercialization approach.

to basically follow in NVIDIA's footsteps and monetize here and now in like in the cl in the timing market like they did in the gaming market while building towards the uh crown jewel of quantum computing like they did with large language models.

B

All right, now before you think the match just name dropped uh NVIDIA when you go to their deck uh and they've got a very good deck. They are a partner, along with the L three house you just mentioned several. The NVIDIA NVIDIA's done work with you, leading partner course. So they obviously but we can at least uh since I know he gets very involved, Genesis gets very involved, he's taking a hard look at you before he wanted to get together with

D

That's right. And and I think uh NVIDIA likes quantum for a number of reasons, but ultimately they view it as a way to sell more GPUs over time.

B

When I first approached him I said, Isn't this going to be the death of GPUs? He said the opposite. You need GPUs.

D

Yeah they w very closely together over time to solve a whole new swath of problems that we just can't solve by ourselves.

B

But the thing that you can do is you can solve things in hours that would take what, ten years in some cases?

D

In some cases a trillion years, yes.

B

But okay, so let me give an example when I saw it, I said, Oh my god, I want these guys to be on our team. Spotlight, national security, hypersonic threat detection, exponential data complexity, cryptographic existential threat. You're talking about things that could happen to our nation that maybe only quantum can stop. And your company's got a le really got a heads they got the leg up on this thing.

D

That's right. Yes. So the uh the the use cases for national security that quantum can address are very broad. And largely speaking, we can bucket them into two. We can bucket them into quantum sensing and then quantum computing over time. In the quantum sensing realm

there are uh you mentioned hypersonic missiles coming at the United States. So there's the Golden Dome program, for instance. That is effectively a massive sensing uh infrastructure that needs to be tightly synchronized because the only way to intercept a hypersonic missile It requires picosecond level synchronization. And so why does quantum matter? It matters because we can do things at orders of magnitude, higher levels of precision, than you can with classical technologies. And so

quantum will play a big role in these types of systems like Golden Dome to allow us to uh detect and then synchronize and eliminate threats that might be coming at us. And that applies not just for protecting the homeland, but also out in the field of battle um for our soldiers as well.

B

But we have to have that. You have got to I hope that our government fully supports what you're talking about.

D

Uh they are fully supportive and they've been a great partner to

B

us as well. They said Dad, we can't own crypto'cause of quantum and I said, Oh my God, I know twenty twenty nine qu uh uh quantum's going to be able to unlock crypto. When you hear these things, is that just ki the equivalent of doomer talk for you?

D

No, it is not. Um I do believe that well, first of all, I believe that crypto will likely find a way to fork and then perhaps make themselves quantum resistant. Perhaps. Perhaps. But the uh the uh the the ways in which crypto encrypts itself.

are based upon some of the fundamental inabilities of classical computers to perform certain types of calculations. And those are the types of calculations that quantum computers will be able to perform. And it's one of those that I mentioned that you know it could take a trillion years for a classical computer to compute.

But there's something called a Schor's algorithm, which is basically something that allows you to um break modern day encryption. And that is getting closer and closer and closer and it is something a quantum computer will be able to do. And we actually showcased the first version of Shore's algorithm on logical qubits on a quantum computer last year.

B

All right. No, but do we know it and I'm glad, you know, maybe my kids know this stuff too. Fi you have five hundred million, you got plenty of money in the bank, you got a lot of different irons in the fire. Um but you also want because you're a business person, you wanna uh generate some revenue, so you've got all those things going, right? Forty, forty mil, maybe a little more than forty mil. So

D

At least for

B

Your your your plan is eventually to make money, but right now it's a revenue growth story.

D

It is, yes. It is a revenue scale and a revenue growth story, but ultimately our Our job is to generate huge gross profit and huge uh huge free cash flow over time. And I believe that quantum is the opportunity to build a generational company and that's what we're building towards. And and what is unique to our model is the ability to monetize near term on these quantum sensing applications. all well building towards that crown jewel of quantum computing.

B

Okay, well here's what I want you to do. I want you to come back. I want you to keep us up. Uh I've had s you know the plethora of quantum people on, but you I think really Explain it. And I think it's an explained story. I because when it goes down I want people to buy more, not cut and run. That's what happens unless they have explanations and intelligence and the education that you can give us.

D

Thanks Jim. Appreciate that.

B

Thank you. All right, that's Matt Kinsella, CEO of Inflection. And I gotta tell you guys, I'm pretty fascinated by this stuff. You know, I'm gonna put them all on.

A

Because you speak

B

What is back there to the ring.

C

Coming up, you've got questions. Kramer's got the answers. Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round. Next.

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Lightning Round: Quick Stock Takes

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Don't forget, now is the perfect time to join the CBC Investing Club, complete with a free signed book by yours truly. Scan the QR code or go to cbc.com slash cramer book. And now is the time and it's time for the light around clipper spot.

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is over. Are you ready? Skeet Dak number kids start with Tim in Virginia. Tim

H

Hey Jim, your cycle has unique plastic recycling technology.

B

Okay, is it probably pure cycles? It loses a fortune.

A

Uh I didn't have a I think we have to say Let's go cheer. Point of zero.

B

You're

J

After twenty years is incredible. I want whatever you're eating. Speaking of energy, this stock seems to be evolving beyond the original gravity story story into AI infrastructure and broader uh powder solutions. Is it finally becoming a real gross story? This the stock is NRGV.

B

That's a pure spec that's losing a fortune. Again, I gotta be really careful, even though it's a low dollar amount. Remember, it is still a pure spec, and it can hurt you. Go to Matthew and

H

What do you think about the other thing?

B

ever spin tick

A

Is it just up?

B

I don't know if it's like a short squeeze or whatever. I mean at least it it does make money, but it's a ninety times earnings, you gotta be careful.

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Let's go to Ron.

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Pointy Robin.

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I'd like to know what you think about GMAG. In particular the medical. hated in this market. and really in some really good ones like uh like Medtronic or ISRG or Boston Scientific. Eric in Michigan, Eric.

J

Jim, I love the shop.

B

Calling on the case. What can this apply on the idea that Kevin Warsh is gonna get in and cut rates and I don't think he can because of the No, it's a Rocky Company. Lightning round!

C

The Lightning Route.

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SpaceX IPO: Bubble Warning

C

Coming up, with SpaceX hurtling towards a likely record IPO.

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Don't miss

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Right now I'm torn. Don't like some things, really like others. That's because when the facts change, I changed my mind, especially when they changed the direction of something that I was already worried about. I'm talking about these big IPOs. Last night I talked about how the IPO launcher, Cerebrus, demonstrated a level of enthusiasm that concerned me.

This AI chip deal priced at one hundred eighty five, opened at three hundred fifty and then went to three hundred eighty six and changed at its highs yesterday, and just and of course that had plummeted today to under two hundred eighty. Everything about that spike yesterday was wrong. It's all about irresponsible market orders and a level of abulance that's just plain embarrassment to those who got caught up in it.

This wouldn't matter if investors looked at how much they had already lost on this one deal and said we aren't going to do that again. But I've seen this movie before. Nobody learns the lesson after the first IPL explosion or even the second one. They have to lose a lot more money to get a lot, let's say, to see through the smoke and mirrors of instant wealth. Which brings me the space access.

Next week, as I mentioned at the top of the show, we're supposed to see the prospectus for the SpaceX deal. Elon Musk Rocket Company plus Starlink X, which is the old Twitter, and X AI, which includes Grok, right now an inferior chatbot, that I still have hopes for because Musk is involved.

The buzz about the deal is that the brokers said to be about twenty firms are being instructed to get retail investors involved. They don't want flippers, firms that get stock and just flip it on the deal when the stock opens. That's great, but there are some problems with this strategy too. First, the SpaceX IPO said to value the company at between one point seven five and two trillion dollars right from the get-go.

If they get that price, the stock will be selling at 80 times sales, not earnings. Doesn't make money. Has some profitable operations, but overall it loses money. That price to sales ratio is well above most of the big name tech companies that you're now familiar with.

So far I get the story. It's musk. It's rockets. It's about data centers in the sky. Hundred gigawatt space data center powered by solar. Biggest by far. It's about Starlink, just rapid satellite internet that can handle voice and video with ease and it's very inexpensive.

Oh so exciting. Oh you can't wait to get your hands on it, right? But if the underwriters want lots of retail shareholders, then they need to be careful about how much stock they issue. Too little and you end up with a cerebral. If SpaceX were to issue just a sliver of stock, which is what I'm worried about, this company could end up with a five trillion dollar valuation the day it comes public.

Yes, there's that much demand. And if it it's immediately included in the NASDAQ 100 and the SP 500, like we're hearing, then I think it can actually go to six trillion dollars. I mean come on, do we want that?

A

I know I don't know

B

You don't want to have a money losing company that has just eighteen eighteen point five billion dollars in revenue last year surpassed NVIDIA as the largest business in the world by market cap. NVIDIA had two hundred fifteen billion in revenues and nearly one hundred and twenty billion in net income. They are not in the same list. Now, the brokers can blunt this by making sure that a huge amount of stock hits the market. That's okay. That can make for a more realistic move.

But I keep hearing that's not what they're planning to do. They want to unleash just a sliver of stock instead of a solid chunk that can be repelled to the moon by market orders. Sliver deals almost always produce what I'm most afraid of. SpaceX would create a bubble of its own, and it would set a terrible precedent for open AI and anthropic, two more that are said to be in the IPOQ. The three of these would suck up a huge amount of available cash.

and cause tremendous selling in the rest of the market. Simply because the market for their IPOs needs to come from somewhere. Their money has to come from somewhere. Stocks will take a hit when these deals price. Believe me, it's gonna happen. Remember what I always say, the stock market like any other market is all about supply and demand. Too much supply and the market breaks down.

Right now we're pretty much in equilibrium. SpaceX would start the process of overwhelming the market with excess supply, especially when the typical lop lock up on insider selling expires six months down the road. You can't stop this runaway train of IP.

A

No one.

B

But understand it is coming. Be ready for it and hook the young writers, act responsibly rather than engineering the pops of a lifetime. They did that latter during the dot-com era, and that ended horribly. They must not make history repeat itself. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere at Prometheus just for your man money. I'm Drew Pammer.

L

All opinions expressed by Jim Kramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to the same.

to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash madmoney disclaimer.

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Plan ground

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And entertainment.

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