As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year. What scenario should we expect? Hosted by Ausha. See...
Jul 25, 2025•19 min
To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries. In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global growth, the dynamics of international trade reconfiguration, and the reorganisation of value chains. We...
Jul 09, 2025•17 min
In this new Podcast, we take a look at the short- to medium-term economic outlook for the major advanced economies, analysing the impact of trade tensions, the room for manoeuvre available and the expected economic dynamics. #growth #inflation #monetarypolicy #us #eurozone #uk Reading advice : Équipe Économies Avancées | EcoPerspectives — Économies Avancées | 2ème trimestre 2025 – Etudes Economiques – BNP Paribas Sound credit : Extact from the speech of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist...
May 23, 2025•19 min
In this Audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac discusses selfemployment in France. It has been growing again for almost 20 years, particularly in household services, but also in business services. In France, which has created nearly 420000 jobs a year over the last 5 years, self-employment has represented almost one job creation out of 5. Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Jun 26, 2024•6 min
In this Audiobrief, Guillaume Derrien discusses recent evolution of the European Union's trade balance. The latter moved back to a surplus in 2023. Despite China’s ramping up to higher value-added sectors, the EU trade surplus in traditionally buoyant industries (pharmaceuticals, automotive) remains at historically-high levels. Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
May 28, 2024•5 min
In this audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac describes France’s trade deficit for 2023 main drivers. In addition to a deficit linked to imports of hydrocarbons and a structural deficit reflecting the country’s de-industrialisation, it is also driven by France’s investment in the needs arising from the ecological and digital transition and the electrification of the car industry. Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Mar 13, 2024•6 min
In the second podcast on geopolitical uncertainty and its economic consequences, Daniel Morris and William De Vijlder look more closely at the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on firms, households and financial markets. Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Dec 21, 2023•21 min
In two podcasts Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist of BNP Paribas Asset Management discusses with William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the economy. In this first podcast, they look at economic and geopolitical uncertainty, why it matters and how it can be measured. Clic here to consult the graphic Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Dec 19, 2023•17 min
In the second and last episode of the series on central banks and their fight against inflation, Andrew Craig and William de Vijlder are looking beyond the peak and discuss what will come next. Among the questions are: how long will central banks hold rates at these levels? How long will they plateau at these current levels? what come after that? Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Oct 19, 2023•13 min
In this series of two podcasts Andrew Craig, co-head of the Investments Insight Center at BNP Paribas Asset Management, interviewed William de Vijlder, group chief economist of the Economic Research of BNP Paribas regarding the central banks policies to fight inflation. Among the questions answered in the first episode are:Are we at the peak or can we expect further rates hikes? Is the inflation going to declines? at which pace? Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-pol...
Oct 12, 2023•24 min
In this third and final episode of the series dedicated to labour productivity in Spain, signs of encouragement for a recovery in Spanish productivity are presented, in particular thanks to a national recovery plan (2021-2026) that is in line with the España 2050 strategy, which consists of raising R&D investment. Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
May 31, 2023•9 min•Season 1Ep. 1
In this second episode of the series on labour productivity in Spain, Hélène Baudchon and Guillaume Derrien discuss the three main factors that explain Spain's low productivity. Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
May 24, 2023•7 min•Season 1Ep. 1
In this series of three podcasts "Focus on Labour Productivity in Spain" Hélène Baudchon, Deputy Chief Economist and Head of the OECD team, BNP Paribas Economics Department and Guillaume Derrien, Senior Economist in the same team, discuss productivity as an endemic weakness of the Spanish model. This first episode reviews the main trends in the evolution of productivity in Spain compared to its European neighbours over the last 25 years. Economic Research Website Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/pr...
May 17, 2023•8 min•Season 1Ep. 1
In this new AudioBrief, Guillaume Derrien, economist within the OECD team, discusses the close relationship between global growth and the evolution of international trade. Economic Research's website, BNP Paribas Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Mar 01, 2023•3 min
Is stagflation back? In this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, discusses the issue of stagflation, a term that has been increasingly used in the media in recent months. Stagflation, a multi-year phenomenon combining rising unemployment and high inflation, brings us back to the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation levels were unprecedented and mass unemployment began. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Jun 16, 2022•14 min•Season 2Ep. 1
The convergence of several factors of tension – the health crisis, the war in Ukraine, the tensions in supply chains – is leading us to speak more and more of stagflation. The term is a contraction of "stag" for stagnation in economic activity and "flation" for inflation. William De Vijlder, Chief economist of BNP Paribas, offers a two-part podcasts series on this worrying phenomenon. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Jun 10, 2022•6 min•Season 2Ep. 1
In this final episode, William De Vijlder analyses the responses of European governments to the crisis generated by the pandemic. How to stimulate and maintain economic growth whilst at the same time developing an environmental policy that meets the challenges of climate change? The “Next Generation EU” plan recently launched by the European Commission is discussed from this viewpoint. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Sep 08, 2020•14 min
In the second episode, François Doux and William De Vijlder discuss the profound social changes that the pandemic has brought about. The virus has put health at the centre of people’s worlds, and stimulated new interest in environmental issues. William De Vijlder explains why these changes in behaviour and mindset could prove to be long-lasting. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Sep 08, 2020•13 min
In the first episode of this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder and François Doux will look at the concept of externalities to consider how lockdowns, by limiting human and economic activity considerably, have affected the environment. They also examine the notion of “green swan” risks; climate-related risks that could threaten the economy. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Sep 08, 2020•7 min
In the final episode, William De Vijlder turns to the psychological factors in play when it comes to inflation. We will see that inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation are three very different notions. William also looks at relative prices and absolute prices and discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected prices and the nature of demand. Lastly, he will look at the possible impact of the pandemic on the strategy of central banks in terms of monetary policy over the coming ye...
Aug 18, 2020•13 min
In this second episode, William De Vijlder turns to the real economy and examines the factors that could produce inflation. He draws the distinction between headline inflation and core inflation. Could core inflation, which is affected by tensions in the labour market and the markets for goods and services but also by inflation expectations, see an acceleration under current circumstances? William De Vijlder also looks at the supply side shock and the disruption of global value chains as a resul...
Aug 18, 2020•11 min
In the first episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes that the risk of an increase in inflation is high on the list of frequently asked questions by clients. To tackle the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy, central banks have relaxed their monetary policies and increased the size of their balance sheets by making massive injections of liquidity into the system. For Monetarists (followers of the Chicago School, founded by Milton Friedman), this increase in money supply is the root cau...
Aug 18, 2020•7 min
In response to the pandemic, many governments took a vast range of measures to curb the impact of the pandemic on the economy. In this final episode, William De Vijlder shows how the state remains the “balance sheet of last resort” in the event of an economic crisis. He also reviews the current situation of public finances and what this implies in terms of dynamics of the debt/GDP ratio. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Jun 30, 2020•9 min
Central banks have played a key role in supporting the economy during the pandemic-induced recession. To do so, they increased the size of their balance sheet. William De Vijlder explains the mechanisms governing this increase in their balance sheet. Is there any limit on how far it might go? He also explains the concept of direct monetary financing. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Jun 23, 2020•12 min
The second episode focuses on non-financial companies. As well as having a considerable impact on their short-term (cash) and long-term assets (imperative of aligning their operational model with new requirements in terms of supply chain resilience), the Covid-19 crisis has obliged businesses to increase their indebtedness. This confronts them with a dilemma whether to strengthen their balance sheet by paying back debt or to maintain a high degree of leverage an invest. Hosted by Ausha. See aush...
Jun 23, 2020•9 min
In the first episode, William De Vijlder takes a look at households’ balance sheets by considering how assets and liabilities are influenced by the pandemic. We will also see how the loss of human capital due to the deterioration of the labour market plays a key role in the post-pandemic economic environment. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
May 28, 2020•8 min
In the third podcast, William De Vijlder shows how a central bank’s persistently accommodating monetary policy to bring inflation in line with the target can have a negative impact over the long term, threatening both growth and financial stability. In case of a crisis, central banks no longer have much room to intervene, since they have used up their manoeuvring room in the pursuit of their inflation target. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information....
Mar 11, 2020•9 min
How to strike the right balance between inflation and financial stability has been a source of debate for decades. In this second podcast, William De Vijlder shows how the central banks give priority to inflation targets over financial stability. He uses a few examples to illustrate how central banks will opt to hold a steady course even when confronted with the risk of instability, which is often caused by financial market turmoil. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more informati...
Mar 04, 2020•8 min
In this podcast, we look at central banks policy objectives, which sometimes differ. The ECB’s top priority is to meet its inflation target, whereas the Fed is targeting both inflation and full employment. These objectives raise several questions: how can we measure inflation and full employment? How do central banks set their targets? And what instruments can be used to attain them? We will also see how central banks must deal with a constantly changing economic environment. Hosted by Ausha. Se...
Feb 26, 2020•13 min
In this last episode, William De VIjlder will show us how negative rates can have an unfavourable impact on financial income and notably retirement savings capital. Other questions arise: are these negative rates causing an increase in households’ savings rate and is this increase to last? And if so, to what extent can the monetary policy be affected? Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Nov 20, 2019•5 min
