Liquidity levels are improving in USDs and more may be upcoming via the depletion of the ON RRP. Will the Fed move towards more benign balance sheet policies over the course of the year? And how about a potential operation "Twist"? Meanwhile, China is allowing the public deficit to grow. Is China the next positive surprise? Guest: Joseph Wang aka. The Fed Guy 14 day free trial - https://stenoresearch.com/subscribe/ FREE macro newsletter - https://stenoresearch.com/free/ Check out 👉 https://fedg...
Mar 10, 2024•46 min
The cyclical rotation of asset markets is ongoing and the Manufacturing sector seems to be improving by the month. The consensus is getting very upbeat on the US growth picture but what about China and Europe? Is the Rest of the World ready to beat expectations and do you own enough commodities in case? Find our research at https://stenoresearch.com/ The FREE newsletter is found at https://stenoresearch.com/free Guest of the week: Tracy Shuchart of https://hilltowerresourceadvisors.com/ Remember...
Mar 03, 2024•42 min
Assets are melting up right, left and center as the optimism around the business cycle is improving. Is it fair to assume that countries outside of the US are improving? And how do you trade the cyclical comeback? Crypto assets are also celebrating the cyclical uptick and we are joined by Mads Eberhardt to discuss the Crypto market post the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. Find our FREE newsletter here - https://stenoresearch.com/free/ Find our Crypto offering - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-...
Feb 25, 2024•42 min
We discuss the resurgence of US inflation, which rhymes well with our forward looking indicators. Will inflation return to 2% at all in this cycle? Our guest Freya Beamish of TS Lombard is not positive on China, but sees a strong structural case in Japan. Tune in! Find our latest insights on inflation here - https://stenoresearch.com/watch-series/g3-inflation-wage-watch-us-inflation-will-not-return-to-2-this-cycle/ Remember to go to www.stenoresearch.com - 14 day free trial. Hosts: Andreas Steno...
Feb 18, 2024•46 min
Is the US recession called off and is it even possible to talk about a re-acceleration of the economy? Where does it leave the hopes for a cutting cycle from the Fed and how will asset markets respond? Remember to go to www.stenoresearch.com - launch of portfolios, 14 day free trial. Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold & Emil Møller If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel: ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah #economics #trading #interestrate #useconomy #macroeconomy ...
Feb 11, 2024•57 min
Are we on the verge of war between the US and Iran? The Suez troubles continue but freight rates have leveled off somewhat despite growing tensions between the US and Iran. How close are we to an all in war? We look at the geopolitics and the ramifications for global markets with Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments Hosts: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold. 14 day free trial at www.stenoresearch.com If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23h...
Feb 04, 2024•44 min
The hopes for a quick solution in the Red Sea are fading and the global inflation impact will likely be lasting. The crisis is now spreading from containers to dry bulk and energy. How will Chinese, European and US markets react to this? Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold and Emil Moller 14 day free trial at www.stenoresearch.com If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah #podcast #economy #banking #economics #trading #interestrate #usec...
Jan 28, 2024•42 min
We are once again joined by our favourite global macro economist, Dario Perkins of TS Lombard, to discuss the supply shock in the Red Sea. Will the freight rates wreak havoc with the 2024 cutting cycle consensus? This is your last chance to get 30% off on your yearly subscription at www.stenoresearch.com - use macro30 to get 30% off today! Hosts: Andreas Steno & Emil Møller If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah #podcast #economy #ba...
Jan 21, 2024•54 min
US inflation is accelerating again but the market is yet to care. Meanwhile, freight rates continue to rise on the back of increasing tensions in the Red Sea and goods inflation is threatening to come back with a vengeance. Will the Fed forward pricing prove to be off? We discuss it with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds If you find our research valuable, please visit www.stenoresearch.com - there is always a 14 day free trial and you can use the code Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription until ...
Jan 14, 2024•45 min
The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and freight rates are on the rise in some subsectors. Can the situation escalate into a new inflation spiral and what does it mean for the positive 2024 outlooks from right about every investment bank? We discuss the situation with a selection of analysts at Steno Research. If you find our research valuable, please visit www.stenoresearch.com - there is always a 14 day free trial and you can use the code Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription until Jan...
Jan 07, 2024•39 min
How are markets positioned for 2024? We discuss the consensus outlook with Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets and weigh pros/cons of betting against the consensus in various asset classes. Will the Soft Landing narrative prevail or will tail scenarios unfold in 2024? Happy New Years from the entire team at Steno Research14-days free trial available at: https://stenoresearch.com/subscribe/ Hosts: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel ...
Dec 31, 2023•53 min
Is the new ECB/Fed inflation forecast way off? And will inflation resurface already during 2024? Those are key questions for asset allocators. We host a thought provoking discussion with the tremendous Claus Vistesen of Pantheon. Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com - always 14 days free trial access to our research https://stenoresearch.com/subscribe/ Hosts: Andreas Steno
Dec 24, 2023•33 min
Jay Powell invited for a massive risk asset party after the Fed opened the door for several cuts in 2023. Will the Fed suddenly prove to be the most dovish of the big central banks anyway? We assess the outlook for the big three central banks while also discussing whether this is a mid-cycle rate cutting cycle or the start of a recession. Our guest of the week, Raoul Pal, thinks we are in an early cycle dynamic and that central banks are late to react to what was a recessionary pricing of risk a...
Dec 17, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Gold has been rallying hard alongside bonds in October and November, but who are the buyers? Retail or central banks? We discuss the Gold outlook with the author of In Gold We Trust, Ronnie Stoeferle of Incrementum Funds On top of that, we discuss the situation in Guyana and the ramifications for our suffering oil longs. Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com - always 14 days free trial access to our research Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller Guest: Ronnie Stoferle of Incrementum Funds...
Dec 09, 2023•59 min
We are joined by the renowned Tech investor Cathie Woods of ARK to discuss the rally in duration heavy equity assets through 2023. Will the rally continue if the Fed is done hiking? And will US Treasury markets also deliver better returns in 2024? All that amidst the turbulence from the OPEC meeting. Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Møller Guest: Cathie Woods from https://ark-invest.com/ Steno Research Discount Code: crypto20...
Dec 03, 2023•51 min
We host the former Chief of the Energy unit at the US Embassy in Kiev and co-founder of the Eney LCC, Suriya Jayanti for a discussion of the malaise in offshore wind markets. Why is wind energy suffering and is China to blame? Tune in as we discuss the future energy mix in Europe and the US in light of recent developments and how it is likely to impact your portfolio. For more information about Steno Research go to https://stenoresearch.com/ For more information about the guest of the week pleas...
Nov 26, 2023•1 hr 1 min
We host the great Mike Green for a talk on the outlook for the strong-going US economy in comparison to Europe and Asia. We also cover the softer-than-expected CPI prints and the subsequent rally in equities and take a victory lap on our Germany trade. To see our full model portfolio and access all our research, sign up for a FREE 2-week trial at www.stenoresearch.com. Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Møller Guest: Mike Green, Simplify Asset Management
Nov 19, 2023•58 min
We are joined by one of the best central bank watchers in the world, Dario Perkins of TS Lombard to discuss whether negative equity in central banks practically matter. Dario says theoretically no, but practically yes while also introducing his "Perkins rule" for recession watching. Check out our new Crypto content at https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/ and sign up for a 2 week free trial. You even get 20% off your first three payments with the code 'crypto20'. Hosts: Andreas Steno ...
Nov 12, 2023•58 min•Season 1Ep. 22
The Bank of Japan is the only major currency authority in the post-COVID era to fight back against USD strength via intervention - and win. Can they pull it off again? We host the great Weston Nakamura for a deep-dive into the Japanese monetary and fiscal policy. Towards the end, we give an update on our current positioning and the portfolio outlook for the remainder of 2023. Use "macro30" to get 30% off your first purchase at www.stenoresearch.com Check out Weston's analysis on his substack rig...
Nov 05, 2023•59 min•Season 1Ep. 21
We host the great Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to a deep dive into the outlook for US Treasuries. What does the new House speaker and upcoming appropriations talks mean for markets and treasuries and how will the US fund yet another war? We also discuss the newest inflations trends and how we position ourselves in these testing times. Use "macro30" to get 30% off your first purchase at www.stenoresearch.com Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller Guest: Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds...
Oct 29, 2023•1 hr 5 min
Live from his vacation home in sunny Spain, Andreas hosts the great Steen Jakobsen of Saxo Bank to a talk on commodities, positioning and in particular "Inflation math". Why are we so slow to adjusting our thinking to a high interest and high inflation environment and how should we adapt? Hear a great analysis from Steen as well as an update on our very own portfolio and current research here at Steno Research. Host: Andreas Steno Larsen Guest: Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank
Oct 22, 2023•38 min•Season 1Ep. 20
We host the great Warren Pies in a discussion on oil, bonds and everything related. Are energy stocks the new bonds and why? We take a closer look. We also cover recent movements on our model portfolio and what changes we see coming up. Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller Guest: 3Fourteen Research Use "macro30" to get 30% off your first purchase at www.stenoresearch.com
Oct 15, 2023•41 min•Season 1Ep. 19
Will the energy price rally trigger the recession as consumer savings are depleted? We look at this week's EIA data, whether it can be trusted and how it all impacted the world of Macro and your portfolio. The recession is likely in Q1 2024 still - and here's how we view and trade it! Hosts. Andreas Steno and Emil Moller Use "macro30" to get 30% off your first purchase at www.stenoresearch.com
Oct 08, 2023•36 min•Season 1Ep. 18
Is the day of reckoning for nuclear power here at last? After years of stagnation, markets are beginning to show some promise for nuclear technology. Today, we'll examine the state of nuclear energy and delve into the current conditions of the commodity and energy markets with John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management. Remember to get 30% off your first three purchases at www.stenoresearch.com with the coupon code 'macro30'. Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller...
Oct 01, 2023•51 min•Season 1Ep. 17
Are the central banks on pause or not? We cover all the CB decisions/non-decisions this week and talk to former President of the Atlanta Fed and former FOMC member Dennis Lockhart to get his view on the central bank situation. How does Dennis view the FOMC meeting and the US economy in general? Afterwards, we call up Frances Donald, Global Chief Economist at Manulife Investment for some great analysis of the current situation. What are the right bets in markets and will risk assets surge as they...
Sep 24, 2023•59 min•Season 1Ep. 16
Has the anti-Europe trade become the consensus or is there still juice in the story? We discuss the prospects of European gas storages and the ongoing recession in the North of the continent. Can Europe surprise negatively and will that surprise the ECB? Should you actually watch Southern Europe and not Northern Europe from here on? We also discuss the differences between the U.S. and European labour markest post-pandemic. Why are we not seeing ghost towns in Europe and what does this mean for m...
Sep 17, 2023•29 min•Season 1Ep. 15
Oil could be up as much as 25-30% during Q4 due to the production cuts out of Saudi Arabia and Russia. This is beginning to smell like the 1970's and we take a closer look at how that affects inflation and growth with the great Mikael Sarwe of Nordea Bank. We also discuss inflation outlooks in both the U.S. and Europe. Use the exclusive offer Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold Guest: Mikael Sarwe, Nordea...
Sep 10, 2023•43 min•Season 1Ep. 14
Is the U.S. labour market finally crashing? What will it take to kill the U.S. economy? We ask Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan who explains The Rasputin Effect . We also cover the outlook for fiscal policy, interest rates and the short- and longterm effects of the Chips Act and IRA in this great interview. And of course - we give our take on how to allocate given all of this. Use the exclusive offer Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil ...
Sep 02, 2023•38 min•Season 1Ep. 13
Has the PBoC won against speculators in Chinese FX markets? And will equities stabilize due to the contained outflows from China? We invite Tony Nash, former Director at The Economist Intelligence Unit in Asia to discuss the evolving crisis in Beijing. Tony has extensive knowledge from working both in Singapore and China and sees this ongoing tug of war as a patriotic combat. Finally, you get our weekly update on portfolio flows, where we elaborate why again prefer to short assets in our own nec...
Aug 27, 2023•56 min•Season 1Ep. 12
We host Michael Kao for a discussion on the Chinese tool-box and whether the 7.30 line in the sand will hold or not. The situation is very binary. Either risk appetite will return or else you need to run for the hills. Remeber that you can use Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com...
Aug 20, 2023•42 min•Season 1Ep. 11
