Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before the war started. Policy responses will not be uniform across countries but some central banks might be inclined to move pre-emptively while others could wait a lot longer. In episode we discuss why hikes could occur by mid-year in the UK & Europe while the ...
Apr 15, 2026•21 min•Season 1Ep. 102
In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wrote a detailed note about the private credit market and the potential pitfalls. Marc and Peter recap why markets have recently become wary of private credit, explore where the problems might lie and what potential contagion channels into the public markets exist. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Marc Sanchez (...
Apr 09, 2026•26 min•Season 1Ep. 101
In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporters like Australia are feeling the pinch, how central banks will respond to stagflation, and why US equities have remained resilient , though caution is warranted as more significant market headwinds may be emerging. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy)...
Apr 02, 2026•29 min•Season 1Ep. 100
The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would allow oil prices to retreat toward $80 per barrel, providing relief to EM economies and supporting risk assets. The second scenario contemplates further escalation, potentially including boots-on-the-ground military intervention, which would keep oil prices elev...
Mar 26, 2026•17 min•Season 1Ep. 99
In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and map a path forward for the ECB and BoE. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist George Moran (Desk Strategy), Europe...
Mar 11, 2026•17 min•Season 1Ep. 98
Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hitting software equity valuations and credit spreads, which in turn is feeding into concerns over vehicles exposed to that widening, namely the Broadly Syndicated loan market, the Private Credit market, BDCs and even Insurance Companies. Valuation declines have...
Mar 06, 2026•16 min•Season 1Ep. 97
The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment. Participants: Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed...
Feb 25, 2026•14 min•Season 1Ep. 96
Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors have continued to accumulate USD denominated assets, but with a cautious bias (i.e. hedging). To unpack these complexities you will hear insights from Blake Gwinn (Head of US Rates Strategy), Richard Cochinos (FX Strategy), and Chris Louney (Natural Gas and Gold Strategist). Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates &...
Feb 19, 2026•25 min•Season 1Ep. 95
In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition’ we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the uncertainties, we still see value in the short end of the UK Gilt curve, also versus the EUR market. We also outline that we see the ECB on hold for the rest of the year despite inflation being below the 2% target and why we think the EUR yield curve steepening is far from over. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics C...
Feb 12, 2026•16 min•Season 1Ep. 94
There seems to be a confluence of factors that have conspired to be the perfect storm for gold. Prices gains have been parabolic, the recent correction severe, but dip buyers arrived in force to support the market. Is there still a golden opportunity in the shiny metal? Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Christopher Louney (Research), Gold & Natural Gas Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analys...
Feb 05, 2026•21 min•Season 1Ep. 93
We are introducing our new EM Pulse publication, highlighting our views across Asia, EMEA, and LatAm in 2026. This episode features discussions from our positive view on CNY and China’s outlook to why we think the South African rand’s positive momentum can continue and the role of FX carry in the outperformance of LatAm FX this year. Participants: Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist...
Jan 28, 2026•16 min•Season 1Ep. 92
Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again and have lately filtered into markets more clearly. Global bond yields started rising again, the yield curve steepened from both ends and the USD is on the back foot again. Meanwhile, the JGB market is under pressure and JPY worries are mounting. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist * Research Analys...
Jan 22, 2026•29 min•Season 1Ep. 91
As central banks chart divergent paths into 2026, regional opportunities and risks emerge across markets. Join our rates experts from the US, Canada, Europe, and APAC on a world tour breaking down what policy divergence means for bond yields, inflation risks, relative market performance, and how to navigate the year ahead. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rate...
Dec 05, 2025•27 min•Season 1Ep. 90
RBC BlueBay CEO Eric Gerth discusses the asset manager's $700B global growth, industry consolidation drivers, and the strategic importance of scale, culture, and AI investment in shaping the future of financial services.
Nov 19, 2025•23 min•Season 1Ep. 89
With the Fed signaling meaningful changes to their policy stance, what will be the cascading effects across US rates, equities, and global FX markets in what promises to be a pivotal period for investors? In this episode, we discuss the interconnected challenges of monetary policy pivots, earnings expectations heading into 2026, and the looming Supreme Court decision on US tariffs that could reshape global trade dynamics. Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Rich...
Nov 04, 2025•31 min•Season 1Ep. 88
The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There are some known unknowns about how this will impact the economic data but there are also lots of unknown unknowns. In this episode, we will shed light on what it means for the economy, Fed, and bond market. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Michael Reid (Eco...
Oct 02, 2025•13 min•Season 1Ep. 86
We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed, and how low terminal rates might go. As the outlook for global central bank policies continues to evolve, particularly the Fed, it could have far-reaching implications for global asset markets. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy): Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy): Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst o...
Sep 11, 2025•21 min•Season 1Ep. 85
In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. From the Bank of England's hawkish cuts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious easing, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amid market pressures, we delve into the similarities, differences, and uncertainties shaping monetary policy decisions across these regions. Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist Su-Lin Ong...
Aug 13, 2025•26 min•Season 1Ep. 84
In this episode, fiscal loosening has been a feature across many geographies and is getting an increasing amount of attention from financial markets. In this episode, we look at the similarities and differences in fiscal approaches, and how markets are reacting in the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada. Participants: Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics * R...
Jul 15, 2025•18 min•Season 1Ep. 83
In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates. Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts...
Jul 02, 2025•27 min•Season 1Ep. 81
US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging activity. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist * Research Analyst opin...
Jun 11, 2025•16 min•Season 1Ep. 80
Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next? Participants: Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA Solenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing Director, Global Markets Solutions Akilesh Eswaran (Desk Strategy), Global Head of QIS and EMEA Head of Equity Trading Samkit Tated (Desk Strategy), Director of QIS Structuring. * Research Analyst opinions ...
May 28, 2025•19 min•Season 1Ep. 79
Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing approach and what it means for each going forward. Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist * Research Analyst opinions are their publis...
May 20, 2025•16 min•Season 1Ep. 78
The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analyst...
May 06, 2025•11 min•Season 1Ep. 77
Today we break down the trade war, the dollar, equities, rates, earnings season, and what it all means for markets—plus a quick dive into Treasury refunding. Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts...
May 01, 2025•24 min•Season 1Ep. 76
It is a unique time for economies and financial markets - political decisions are increasingly driving economic outcomes and asset markets rather than the other way around. Today's episode unpacks what it means for US & Canada and the implications for equity markets. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their p...
Apr 22, 2025•27 min•Season 1Ep. 75
Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and explanation as to what inspired us. Market swings have been very large on the back of the back and forth in the tariffs culminating in a 90 day pause being announced this week. Helping us to bring some order into the chaos, I am joined by Blake Gwinn, RBC’s head of US rates strategy and Elsa Lignos, Head of FX strategy. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk...
Apr 11, 2025•35 min•Season 1Ep. 74
A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last? Participants: Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA Anke Reingen (Desk Strategy), Global Co-Head of Financials Research Marc Sanchez Roger (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Credit Sector * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts...
Apr 03, 2025•20 min•Season 1Ep. 73
Explore how Trump's policies are reshaping global defense. Experts from RBC Capital Markets analyze the economic and strategic shifts in UK, European, and US defense spending. Participants: Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Chief European Macro Strategist Ken Herbert (Research), Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts...
Apr 02, 2025•19 min•Season 1Ep. 72
The butterfly effect is where a change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Indeed, US trade policies are having significant intended and unintended consequences for various countries that is impacting fiscal policy and politics and potentially and monetary policy and the bond market. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Econo...
Mar 26, 2025•18 min•Season 1Ep. 71
