Macro Bytes
Paul talks with various members of abrdn’s Research Institute about their forecasts for next year. They discuss the probability of recession, the outlook for inflation and interest rates, what’s happening in emerging markets, and what all this means for markets.
Paul talks to Adam Slater, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, about housing markets in the major economies. House prices, home sales and housing starts have been on a downward trend in many countries, driven by rising mortgage rates and squeezed real incomes. But there are important differences between economies, which Paul and Adam explore in this podcast.
Luke Bartholomew speaks to Eva Cairns, Head of Sustainability Insights & Climate Strategy at abrdn, and Jeremy Lawson, head of abrdn’s Research Institute, following their return from COP27. They assess how much progress was made in bridging the credibility, ambition, justice, and adaptation gaps that needed addressing to make COP27 a success. They also discuss whether the COP process is fit for purpose to deliver sustainable climate policy.
Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the optimal – and likely – monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coming recession. Is it back to negative rates and quantitative easing, or will persistent inflation mean interest rates remain high even as recession hits? And are governments able to spend big to support the economy, or will they be constrained by what markets will fund and they can afford?
Luke Bartholomew is joined by Bob Gilhooly, Senior Economist at abrdn, and Neil Thomas, a political risk analyst at Eurasia, to discuss the key takeaways from China’s 20th Party Congress. With President Xi further cementing his power over the Party and China, the risk of policy shocks and mistakes has arguably increased, while in the short-term China continues to deal with the challenge of zero-Covid and the property sector.
In this episode Luke Bartholomew is joined by Jeremy Lawson, abrdn’s Chief Economist, and James McBride from Forefront Advisers to discuss the recent economic, political, and market turbulence in the UK. With the Bank of England forced to intervene in the government bond market, the economy likely to fall into recession, and the government’s fiscal plans in disarray, they consider how likely the government is to survive the forthcoming fiscal announcement and beyond.
In this episode, Luke Bartholomew speaks to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist after the developments in the US economy and markets over the summer, and look forward to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and mid-term elections. The Fed is gearing up for another mammoth rate hike, continuing the sharpest adjustment in monetary policy settings since the Volker era. This continued urgency provides a pushback to markets which had been flirting with the possibility of a more cautious Fed, and comes in...
In this episode, Luke and Paul discuss the many challenges facing Europe at the moment, including: inflation, recession, energy prices, political uncertainty, and monetary policy tightening. The key takeaways are · Consumer sentiment in the Eurozone is at all-time lows. While these surveys probably overstate the degree of economic weakness, this kind of sentiment deterioration cannot help but have some impact on people’s spending patterns and so the economic outlook. Near term recession risks ar...
In this episode, Paul Diggle talks to abrdn’s Senior Emerging Market Economist Robert Gilhooly and Absolute Strategy Research’s EM economist Adam Wolfe about the outlook for China. They discuss zero Covid, the 20th Party Congress, and President Xi’s policy agenda. The key takeaways are: · Chinese growth is rebounding out of the Shanghai lockdown, but this recovery may not prove particularly durable while zero-Covid remains in place. Already, there are renewed outbreaks requiring restrictions in ...
In the second of a two part special, Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle are joined by Professor Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, and author of the recent book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century . In this episode they discuss monetary policy, including the geopolitical and democratic consequences of US monetary hegemony, the future of central bank independence, and the likelihood of a recession. The key takeaways are: · Both the Great Moderation period o...
In the first of a two part special, Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle are joined by Professor Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, and author of the recent book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century . In this episode they discuss the geopolitics of energy supply, and how this helps to explain aspects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the green transition, and other features of the global economy. The key takeaways are: Energy markets provide a vital frame to unders...
In this podcast, co-hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle speak to abrdn’s Deputy Chief Economist about the US-led global recession we are forecasting. The key takeaways were: We expect the US economy to fall into recession in the second half of 2023 as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening. History suggests that when inflation gets this high and unemployment this low, hiking cycles overwhelming end in recessions. That is because the way to rebalance the economy and tame inflation ex...
In this episode our co-host Paul Diggle chats with Jeremy Lawson and Anna Moss about the impact of the energy transition in Asia. The key takeaways are: · The Asia Pacific region is a crucial battleground in the world’s fight to decarbonise. Over the past 20 years, almost all the net increase in global emissions has come from APAC. That means it’s a region replete with investment opportunities and challenges as part of the energy transition. · abrdn’s climate scenarios forecast impairments of in...
In this episode, our hosts Luke Bartholomew and Paul Diggle discuss the recent collapse of a large crypto asset project, and the knock-on effects on the wider crypto market with Jonathan Hobbs from Finimize. The key takeaways are: · The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin Terra and associated coin Luna was caused by design flaws in its supposed stabilisation mechanism, exposed by a rising rates regime, which invited speculative attack · The financial challenges involved in maintaining a stabl...
Focusing on the UK local elections, Paul Diggle, Luke Bartholomew & Jeremy Lawson discuss the economic challenges facing the UK government and what it all means for the potential future general election and for investors
Luke Bartholomew & Paul Diggle discuss the French Election Results and the state of French politics. They touch on the lessons to be learnt around Inflation and the broader political environment
Luke Bartholomew & Sree Kochugovindan sit down to discuss the factors at play as to why Inflation is so surprisingly high across multiple countries. They drill down on key topics surrounding inflation and how this is then linked with the employment market.
With growing perception that the Fed has fallen behind the curve in terms of dealing with underlying inflation pressure, significant monetary tightening will need to occur. Does this mean a recession is looming? Deputy Chief Economist, James McCann and Research Economist, Abigail Watt, join Luke Bartholomew to provide their insights.
With sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, we discuss what this means for central bank reserves as well as look at the economic consequences for the rest of the world
In this episode (recorded on 22 February 2022) we discuss the rapidly changing situation between Russia and Ukraine, look at how the crisis developed, and explore the potential longer term geopolitical consequences
How will central banks behave in response to Omicron, shifting labour markets and inflation? In the second of a two-part series looking at Omicron, we are joined by James McCann and Luke Bartholomew to explain
How is Omicron impacting China’s globally important economy? What impact will China’s strategy to confront Covid have on global supply chains? And what do these supply chain issues mean for inflation? In this episode, the first of a two-part series, Luke Bartholomew is joined by abrdn Research Institute colleagues Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist and Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist to discuss these key questions.
In this podcast episode we discuss the latest installment in our award-winning series, “A Woman’s Place” , identifying three areas in which governments and companies can do more to boost female participation in the workforce. Authors Stephanie Kelly and Abigail Watt discuss how tax rates can discourage women from paid work and suggest how governments can lower this barrier. The research also examines how childcare cost and availability are deterring women from paid work and how such obstacles re...
In this episode we're joined by James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist, to look forward to 2022 thinking about the important economic and political issues that we think will be shaping the investment landscape and market returns.
In this episode we discuss China’s shifting regulatory sands, particularly in the real estate, technology and education sectors where sweeping changes in these areas stunned investors through 2021. The first note in our series on China regulation can be found here: https://www.abrdn.com/en/uk/institutional/insights-thinking-aloud/article-page/china-policy-xi
COP26 created a lot of headlines but will it lead to meaningful policy change on the ground? The team discuss the significance of promises made and missed, and explain what it could mean for investors and our commitments going forwards.
| Nick Robins, Professor in Practice of Sustainable Finance at the London School of Economics, joins to discuss the Just Transition, what it is, why it matters and what it means for financial institutions.
In this episode we consider the role of government policy in the transformation, the UK’s strategy to achieve decarbonisation and how the outcomes of COP26 could influence the future of energy on a global scale.
In this episode, Anna Moss, Climate Change Scenario Analyst at abrdn, and Luke Bartholomew, co-host and our Senior Monetary Economist, join Paul Diggle to discuss the role of the judicial system and the courts and central banks in climate policy, and the profound impact that climate litigation and central bank action has on investment markets.
In this episode, Stephanie Kelly interviews Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew on their research into the long-term effects of COVID-19 on the economy.
